The Remain Alliance ... is no such thing. I honestly doubt if there will be any beneficiaries.
In 2017 the LDs stood down against C Lucas in Brighton - as a result she comfortably kept her seat. There is a precedent, whether it will happen again in 2019 remains to be seen....B&R is also a more recent example
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The reaction of a Labour candidate who loses by a small amount to a Tory and can see that they would have won if the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP or PC had stood down should be to back PR (STV in multi-member constituencies to be exact). Likewise anyone criticising the Remain Alliance should want to get rid of FPTP because that is the only reason it is necessary. Similar argument applies to tactical voting.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Bizarre comment. She's standing for election. How much more democratic do you want her to be?
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
While the incumbent’s credentials are...?
Calling and fighting for a General Election to freely and democratically choose one maybe?
Against many who just wanted to keep the PM in place and not have an Election as a bit of a laugh to see him “stew in his own juices.”
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
This is certain. But after that he will have a problem. It was postulated on here the other day ('byronic') that millions of people will vote Con because "Boris makes them laugh". Most ridiculed this but not me. I think it's true and is one of the reasons why I foresee a healthy Con majority on Dec 12th.
Trouble is, if this is the case, what is the mandate? It's not for any of the policies (apart from leaving the EU on Jan 31st). The only meaningful mandate flows from the voting rationale, therefore it will be to make people laugh. Or rather continue to make them laugh.
And this will not be easy. Replacing frictionless trade with a clunky 'FTA' which depresses GDP. Loosening employment protections which depresses workers. Promoting a further raft of lightweight reactionaries to cabinet which depresses almost everyone. I could go on. The point is that none of this has a great deal of obvious comedic potential. The nation will likely not be convulsed with the giggles. So trouble ahead, methinks.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
In England one is lucky if there is an elsewhere.
There's always the LDs. They don't have many second places right now but they used to, and might again, and if people don't even give them the backing to get that then I think it's a bit much to suggest people are recoiling away from Johnson and Corbyn. I don't like either of them, but it's like when people talk about how hated the big parties are sometimes, focusing on how a majority are against them, which is true, but when they win they can still truthfully say they are the most popular party in the country.
I'll never forget Caroline Lucas presenting herself as the voice of the people of the nation, united in disgust at the Tories, days after the Tories won the 2015 GE. On less than 40% of the vote, granted, but its a hell of a lot more than she got.
There is always an "election after this one", but we have to vote in this election for 2019 not in preparation for 2024.
Yes, and people have the option to vote for the LDs, PC, SNP or BXP if they want. I don't think we can lament people lacking options when they have options, they just don't pick them as much as we might like (SNP excluded). Yes a part of that is the voting system, I'm not a FPTP fan myself, but big swings happen, and if people don't choose to vote that way I think it is a mistake to complain that there are not options.
There are. The public just don't take them up often.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
Are you a parody account or actually as ignorant as you sound?
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
53 to 35. A decent opposition would crucify Johnson and his cronies on those figures.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
But it happened in Spain, when the exasperated leaders took decision to take it a step further than SNP have yet chosen and what international law are you pointing to riding to their rescue.
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
The UK and Spain are two very different countries. Scottish secession is still a very real possibility and, moreover, there's little prospect of Scotland attempting a UDI which would fail to get past its own courts, and even less of a future UK Government attempting to hold Scotland by force.
*IF* there happens to be a Conservative victory next month then pleas from Bute House for a second independence referendum will fall on deaf ears: the Tories are, after all, a Unionist party, and Johnson may well be reliant on his surviving Scottish MPs for his majority. However, an outright victory for the pro-independence camp at Holyrood in 2021 (whether by the SNP alone, or if there's a combined SNP-Green majority) would probably reverse that position.
The flame of Unionism is guttering in England, and the SNP are Labour's main potential coalition partner at Westminster. One should not, therefore, be surprised if a great many English Tories view the dissolution of the Union with far greater equanimity than their predecessors would've done.
I like the way you wrote the answer, and I thank you for it.
You didn’t answer the question though, no one, not malky or anyone, how do you see Scotland winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
Wonder if he will sue Sweeney then. How can it take them best part of a year to investigate it and not have a conclusion.
Seems to me to be thoroughly shitty behaviour by Paul Sweeney. Chose to continue working in a office a few m away, then silence suddenly becomes unbearable at the time of maximum political advantage. Hmm.
If this goes nowhere, then he perhaps needs a libel action, as you hint.
My constituency had a similar thing in 2015 - 10 year old allegations miraculously reemerged a few weeks before the election in a constituency that was then a Lab-Lib marginal. Poor guy was kept under investigation for years by the police, who then collapsed their case at the door of the Court.
The Remain Alliance ... is no such thing. I honestly doubt if there will be any beneficiaries.
In 2017 the LDs stood down against C Lucas in Brighton - as a result she comfortably kept her seat. There is a precedent, whether it will happen again in 2019 remains to be seen....B&R is also a more recent example
Lucas is a good example.
Plaid Cymru voters are about 1/3 leave. I think the Remain Alliance will lose PC some of these voters. They won't be replaced by LibDems (who are very infrequent in Wales).
I don't know whether B&R is a good example, I think the LibDems were always favourites to take the seat (though not with a big majority)
I think the Tories will retake B&R at the GE, Dodds' by-election majority is IMO not big enough.
For all the potential rising tide of Tory triumphalism, I think it is notable most of the predictions here for a Tory win are in the 'small to comfortable' range rather than landslide territory, even though certain polls, if borne out, would deliver landslides.
I think a lot of people were burned in 2017 (myself included) so are more cautious this time. I also see some of the seats the Tories would need to win for a landslide and I just can't see them going blue in the present climate.
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
53 to 35. A decent opposition would crucify Johnson and his cronies on those figures.
A lot of people would like to go back and stop certain things from happening, but that won't have a bearing on their actions since they cannot do that. It's like people fighting in a war they might like to go back in time to stop, but since they cannot they have to fight the battles in front of them.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
Are you a parody account or actually as ignorant as you sound?
Mysterious not Paradoxical. PNB's answer to the Mysterons.
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
53 to 35. A decent opposition would crucify Johnson and his cronies on those figures.
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
I never said they would. I simply pointed out the flaw in the original comments. However, there are a number of the 25 or so seats so affected that are very likely to go LD (with none likely to go the other way, from LD to Con, unless North Norfolk does so). I am happy to predict the following LD wins based on the local and constituency effects which go beyond UNS; Richmond Park Winchester St Albans Guildford (Milton going and local Conservatives in meltdown. I live here) Cheadle Cheltenham Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win) South Cambridgeshire (local Conservative meltdown) Additionally, the following could go either way, despite being out of play on UNS; Wimbledon City of London Eastleigh These are simply the seats of which I have some knowledge. I am sure others can comment on other seats. As well as these I will watch Mole Valley with interest (the Conservatives have railroaded a local plan which caused meltdown in May) and there are, of course, a raft of Labour London seats also at threat (Vauxhall, Bermondsey etc) which have no relation to UNS (plus Hallam in Sheffield).
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The LDs have learnt the hard way, that it is FPTP that takes away the choice from the voters.
I know you live in Berlin, but -- hand on heart -- if you lived in Ynys Mon, would you really, really vote for a party that wants Welsh independence.
I have to say I am very sceptical that any of the LibDems on this board would actually do this, if they lived in rural Wales.
I live in Berlin, but get to vote in Exeter. I do think that the LDs making a pact with independence parties is odd. But if there is a way for the minor parties to minimise the disproprtionality of FPTP it can make strategic sense.
I think I can tell you the "hand on heart" answer: If I thought there was a chance to reduce the number of MPs serving under Boris Johnson, then I would vote PC, otherwise no. I would not however vote Sinn Fein, not even tactically.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
Which is what the overwhelming number of people think when they see or hear Corbyn.
Johnson may “bluster” etc but at least he doesn’t look like he perennially sucks on lemons with a face like Dot Cotton licking piss off a nettle.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
While the incumbent’s credentials are...?
Calling and fighting for a General Election to freely and democratically choose one maybe?
Against many who just wanted to keep the PM in place and not have an Election as a bit of a laugh to see him “stew in his own juices.”
Having been installed by his party, while not commanding a majority, he insisted he didn’t want an election. And after exactly one day of Parliament sitting, he sought to suspend democracy.
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
But it happened in Spain, when the exasperated leaders took decision to take it a step further than SNP have yet chosen and what international law are you pointing to riding to their rescue.
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
The UK and Spain are two very different countries. Scottish secession is still a very real possibility and, moreover, there's little prospect of Scotland attempting a UDI which would fail to get past its own courts, and even less of a future UK Government attempting to hold Scotland by force.
What do you see as the UK and Spain differences, the differences between their separatist movements? There’s much commonality as well?
If anything Catalan has even more of independent mercantile and political history and more of its own language than Scotland has?
Wonder if he will sue Sweeney then. How can it take them best part of a year to investigate it and not have a conclusion.
Seems to me to be thoroughly shitty behaviour by Paul Sweeney. Chose to continue working in a office a few m away, then silence suddenly becomes unbearable at the time of maximum political advantage. Hmm.
If this goes nowhere, then he perhaps needs a libel action, as you hint.
My constituency had a similar thing in 2015 - 10 year old allegations miraculously reemerged a few weeks before the election in a constituency that was then a Lab-Lib marginal. Poor guy was kept under investigation for years by the police, who then collapsed their case at the door of the Court.
Well, gosh, at least the poor guy saw the allegations.
In Welsh Labour, it went:
i) Allegations Made by Unnamed Individual, ii) Carl Sergeant Sacked as Minister and Suspended, iii) Publicity Release by First Minister, iv) Sergeant hangs himself, v) Labour votes to ensure that the report on Sergeant's sacking is never published.
We still do not know the identity and precise nature of the complainant.
Now, maybe Sergeant was a predator. Maybe not. Who knows?
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
For all the potential rising tide of Tory triumphalism, I think it is notable most of the predictions here for a Tory win are in the 'small to comfortable' range rather than landslide territory, even though certain polls, if borne out, would deliver landslides.
I think a lot of people were burned in 2017 (myself included) so are more cautious this time. I also see some of the seats the Tories would need to win for a landslide and I just can't see them going blue in the present climate.
I see a majority of about 10-20 at the moment.
Once bitten, twice shy. No one is taking victory granted again. I think that 46-50% is baked in for the right wing parties, but the key to the Conservatives' chances is ensuring that the vast majority of that 46-50% goes their way.
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
I never said they would. I simply pointed out the flaw in the original comments. However, there are a number of the 25 or so seats so affected that are very likely to go LD (with none likely to go the other way, from LD to Con, unless North Norfolk does so). I am happy to predict the following LD wins based on the local and constituency effects which go beyond UNS; Richmond Park Winchester St Albans Guildford (Milton going and local Conservatives in meltdown. I live here) Cheadle Cheltenham Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win) South Cambridgeshire (local Conservative meltdown) Additionally, the following could go either way, despite being out of play on UNS; Wimbledon City of London Eastleigh These are simply the seats of which I have some knowledge. I am sure others can comment on other seats. As well as these I will watch Mole Valley with interest (the Conservatives have railroaded a local plan which caused meltdown in May) and there are, of course, a raft of Labour London seats also at threat (Vauxhall, Bermondsey etc) which have no relation to UNS (plus Hallam in Sheffield).
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
No mathematical answer but still a probability answer.
You need to be very careful in working out probabilities for "after the event" obeservations. The chances if you but a lottery ticket tomorrow, that you win next Saturday is 1:14 Million. But most weeks *somebody* wins the lottery.
The fact that you have noticed that something pretty unusual has happened, does not mean anything more than coincidence. Once you think how many Tarot readings are done each day, it is likely that at least one Tarot reader gets a remarkable result.
BTW I can see at least one mistake in your maths, I'll leave it to others to point it out :-)
Morning all and just a quick straw in the wind. On the Politics Scotland programme which followed Andrew Marr, several commentators cautioned against assuming the Scottish Tories will lose lots of seats. It was pointed out 38% of Scots voted for Brexit and a disproportionate number of them live in the 13 Tory held seats, just as I pointed out the other day on here.
It will be interesting in Stirling where the SNP has parachuted in its No 1 MEP Alyn Smith. Surely if it was confident of stopping Brexit, it wouldn't be trying to find a new job for the soon to be ex MEP!! It could turn out to be one of those "low hanging fruit" seats that remains low hanging!
There are inevitable dangers in parties standing down to improve others chances of winning on a widespread scale. Voters will have different motivations for how the cast their vote than the architects of the "alliances" plan. In worse case scenarios when denied their first choice option they may actually end up voting in completely the opposite way to that hoped for. Even in a 'neutral' scenario (ie. denied their first choice they choose not to vote) the outcome is to increase the national percentage vote of the opposing parties. Which in turn undermines underlying complaints about the electoral system delivering majorities on low % of the vote.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
No mathematical answer but still a probability answer.
You need to be very careful in working out probabilities for "after the event" obeservations. The chances if you but a lottery ticket tomorrow, that you win next Saturday is 1:14 Million. But most weeks *somebody* wins the lottery.
The fact that you have noticed that something pretty unusual has happened, does not mean anything more than coincidence. Once you think how many Tarot readings are done each day, it is likely that at least one Tarot reader gets a remarkable result.
BTW I can see at least one mistake in your maths, I'll leave it to others to point it out :-)
Forget the math, it’s been guided by the Goddess, you just have to take it.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
Does something wildly unscientific. Wants to use science to assess the significance of it.
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
53 to 35. A decent opposition would crucify Johnson and his cronies on those figures.
A lot of people would like to go back and stop certain things from happening, but that won't have a bearing on their actions since they cannot do that. It's like people fighting in a war they might like to go back in time to stop, but since they cannot they have to fight the battles in front of them.
Well five of the seven parties not only offer the chance of rewriting history but squarely laying the blame at the feet of those responsible. A double whammy!
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
53 to 35. A decent opposition would crucify Johnson and his cronies on those figures.
A lot of people would like to go back and stop certain things from happening, but that won't have a bearing on their actions since they cannot do that. It's like people fighting in a war they might like to go back in time to stop, but since they cannot they have to fight the battles in front of them.
Well five of the seven parties not only offer the chance of rewriting history but squarely laying the blame at the feet of those responsible. A double whammy!
You'd think so, but the combined score of Tory and BXP is higher than those who don't wish to go back in time and prevent this from ever happening, so in practice not everyone who wishes they'd go back actually wants to rewrite history.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
Which is what the overwhelming number of people think when they see or hear Corbyn.
Johnson may “bluster” etc but at least he doesn’t look like he perennially sucks on lemons with a face like Dot Cotton licking piss off a nettle.
That's the point, though - you're not attempting to say that Boris looks convincing, only that you think Corbyn looks worse.
Boris doesn't have a huge amount going for him if you cut through the spin. He's producing a Brexit outcome, and he's the sitting Prime Minister, so should be getting safe-hands familiar-figure votes. Point 1 is a definite plus for many. But he'd be better off if he scored on point 2 as well. I did say it showed strengths too, but I think on balance it's a missed opportunity for him.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
No mathematical answer but still a probability answer.
You need to be very careful in working out probabilities for "after the event" obeservations. The chances if you but a lottery ticket tomorrow, that you win next Saturday is 1:14 Million. But most weeks *somebody* wins the lottery.
The fact that you have noticed that something pretty unusual has happened, does not mean anything more than coincidence. Once you think how many Tarot readings are done each day, it is likely that at least one Tarot reader gets a remarkable result.
BTW I can see at least one mistake in your maths, I'll leave it to others to point it out :-)
Yes, but if I won the lottery four times in a row, that would be mathematically noteworthy.
Cmon PB, this is a betting and statistics site, can’t a brainiac crunch the numbers? I’m not asking anyone to believe in Tarot, I’m asking a genius to show their brilliant workings.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The LDs have learnt the hard way, that it is FPTP that takes away the choice from the voters.
I know you live in Berlin, but -- hand on heart -- if you lived in Ynys Mon, would you really, really vote for a party that wants Welsh independence.
I have to say I am very sceptical that any of the LibDems on this board would actually do this, if they lived in rural Wales.
I live in Berlin, but get to vote in Exeter. I do think that the LDs making a pact with independence parties is odd. But if there is a way for the minor parties to minimise the disproprtionality of FPTP it can make strategic sense.
I think I can tell you the "hand on heart" answer: If I thought there was a chance to reduce the number of MPs serving under Boris Johnson, then I would vote PC, otherwise no. I would not however vote Sinn Fein, not even tactically.
Thanks for the answer, which was interesting.
There are no Plaid Cymru/Tory marginals, so you will never reduce the number of MPs serving under Boris Johnson by voting Plaid Cymru.
Probably the only constituencies in which your vote might conceivably change the MP are Arfon and Ynys Mon.
Here you will have a choice between Plaid Cymru and a Remainer Labour candidate. My guess is you (and most LibDems) would be happier voting for the latter. After all, who are you voting for in Exeter ...
I have no problem with people voting tactically, or making arrangements to swap votes (as OGH has done in the past) to mitigate the effects of FPTP.
But, I think the Remain Alliance is a pernicious & bad idea.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
I never said they would. I simply pointed out the flaw in the original comments. However, there are a number of the 25 or so seats so affected that are very likely to go LD (with none likely to go the other way, from LD to Con, unless North Norfolk does so). I am happy to predict the following LD wins based on the local and constituency effects which go beyond UNS; Richmond Park Winchester St Albans Guildford (Milton going and local Conservatives in meltdown. I live here) Cheadle Cheltenham Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win) South Cambridgeshire (local Conservative meltdown) Additionally, the following could go either way, despite being out of play on UNS; Wimbledon City of London Eastleigh These are simply the seats of which I have some knowledge. I am sure others can comment on other seats. As well as these I will watch Mole Valley with interest (the Conservatives have railroaded a local plan which caused meltdown in May) and there are, of course, a raft of Labour London seats also at threat (Vauxhall, Bermondsey etc) which have no relation to UNS (plus Hallam in Sheffield).
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
"Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)"
Been on the ground in Totnes constituency like me, have you? Because if you had, you wouldn't paint it at 100%.
Sure, Wollaston will do well in Totnes town itself. But it used to be proudly twinned with Narnia.
Bear in mind though that Brixham is a town only slightly smaller than Totnes. It is also the largest port for landing fish in England and Wales. Wollaston's only hope is that they are voting Brexit.
But as with the smaller towns/big villages that litter the Totnes constituency, the Tory vote in Brixham is holding up really, really well.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
Are you a parody account or actually as ignorant as you sound?
Do you do FACTS or just personal attacks?
This character feels fit to attack an entire nation on the basis that they have “never seen an old person there” and that the places “revolts” them. A nation that recovered from brutal foreign occupation and then post colonial poverty and race rioting, to build one of the most remarkably successful and socially cohesive wealth creating democracies in the world. And it should be said, against a regional backdrop of crippling communist and plutocratic dictatorships whose policies they are no doubt quite sympathetic to.
There are lots of old people in Singapore, a tenth of the population in fact is older than 65. This is slanted lower than the roughly one fifth in Europe by large scale immigration that is biased towards lower age groups. So yes, Mystic Rose is ignorant in this matter and you have no right to accuse me of not doings facts. Or “FACTS” for that matter.
By the way to Sandpit and others, there’s plenty of great places in Singapore where booze is priced equivalently to London. Hook me up next time and I’ll tell you where.
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
I never said they would. I simply pointed out the flaw in the original comments. However, there are a number of the 25 or so seats so affected that are very likely to go LD (with none likely to go the other way, from LD to Con, unless North Norfolk does so). I am happy to predict the following LD wins based on the local and constituency effects which
Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
"Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)"
Been on the ground in Totnes constituency like me, have you? Because if you had, you wouldn't paint it at 100%.
Sure, Wollaston will do well in Totnes town itself. But it used to be proudly twinned with Narnia.
Bear in mind though that Brixham is a town only slightly smaller than Totnes. It is also the largest port for landing fish in England and Wales. Wollaston's only hope is that they are voting Brexit.
But as with the smaller towns/big villages that litter the Totnes constituency, the Tory vote in Brixham is holding up really, really well.
Narnia?
It’s one to watch as the HY 20+ majority model has Tories taking on Labour from a base of seeing off every defector and whipless wonder.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
I never said they would. I simply pointed out the flaw in the original comments. However, there are a number of the 25 or so seats so affected that are very likely to go LD (with none likely to go the other way, from LD to Con, unless North Norfolk does so). I am happy to predict the following LD wins based on the local and constituency effects which
Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
"Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)"
Been on the ground in Totnes constituency like me, have you? Because if you had, you wouldn't paint it at 100%.
Sure, Wollaston will do well in Totnes town itself. But it used to be proudly twinned with Narnia.
Bear in mind though that Brixham is a town only slightly smaller than Totnes. It is also the largest port for landing fish in England and Wales. Wollaston's only hope is that they are voting Brexit.
But as with the smaller towns/big villages that litter the Totnes constituency, the Tory vote in Brixham is holding up really, really well.
Narnia?
It’s one to watch as the HY 20+ majority model has Tories taking on Labour from a base of seeing off every defector and whipless wonder.
Narnia town-twinning. The sign lasted years before the council restored the original twinning. It was then replaced with "twinned with Area 51"....
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
Agree with you there, although some reversion to LD in Cornwall would seem likely in normal times, the brexitiness of a few seats means it’s hard to see that happening unless BXP really sweep up. I’d say LD look like a ceiling of 3 here with St Ives near certain, Truro & Falmouth around evens, and SE Cornwall possible but difficult. N Cornwall, St Austell & Newquay and Camborne & Redruth would rely on the Brexit vote getting closer to 50:50 Tory:BXP than seems likely.
...unless of course nominal leavers genuinely don’t care much about Brexit, of course...
From a progressive alliance point of view, things are looking grim indeed. The hope is that these are early days and that Corbyn can pull it out again - I am not hopeful.
My current probabilities.
Labour majority 0% Tory majority 80% NOM 20%
2.04 Tory majority on Betfair Exchange is decent value.
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
Seems like fantastic advice to me. Backing constituency holds in the face of apparent "gasms" has provided 95% of my lifetime political betting success.
From a progressive alliance point of view, things are looking grim indeed. The hope is that these are early days and that Corbyn can pull it out again - I am not hopeful.
My current probabilities.
Labour majority 0% Tory majority 80% NOM 20%
2.04 Tory majority on Betfair Exchange is decent value.
Chill. This website swings all over the place and there are many long weeks to come.
All I'm saying is, based on the evidence so far, the supreme victory of Liberal Democratism nationwide looks unlikely.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
The man is absurd. He'd find a way to say a no deal Brexit was not Brexit somehow. How many will believe him?
Well a no deal Brexit is not what was promised in 2016 so on that he would be right!
And the facts are that the Tory ERG and PM were dead set against this type of deal when May was in charge, and have capitulated to the EU in order to stay in office. Farage is generally wrong, but on this he is right to say the Johnson deal is not the Brexit that was promised either.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
This is disgraceful. I can't stand it when people just put an apostrophe after a name ending in S instead of 'S. How typical of Brexiteers to do something so vile. It's like they just can't help themselves being wrong about absolutely fucking everything.
Be interesting to see how much effort Labour puts into trying to win back Thurrock. They must have lost a big chunk of voters to Farage last time. With no Farage this time....
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
There is an Ukrainian / Russian connection which is concerning. I know - in a professional capacity - some of the people involved and no reputable organisation or person should go anywhere near them. But money talks, as a number of British organizations know only too well. Interesting links with Giuliani too. The difficulty is getting all the relevant information, especially when some of it is in countries which won’t co-operate with Western authorities.
Bluntly, a lot of dodgy Eastern European and Russian money has flowed into Britain in recent years and a lot of people, banks, regulators and other organisations have been, how can I put this, less than scrupulous at inquiring into the sources of that money and the people who front it up.
Currently I think it will be a Tory majority of about 20 to 40, Labour has picked up some LD votes but the Tories have picked up some Brexit Party voters since the campaign started so little change overall. Yes Labour (or the LDs) need to pick up Tory votes over the campaign to have a real shot at denying the Tories a majority again or making Corbyn PM
Sounds about right to me. Other PBers have been saying the same thing.
On the article, I agree with Nick....I think whilst the election feels unpredictable and there will be many local swings and surprises, on the national level the key result of Tory MPs vs Other MPs may not be particularly volatile, with a small Tory majority most likely + or - 30 seats.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
who reads manifestos?
I read them before deciding who to vote for.
Me too. And the Labour one swung me over from the Lib Dems. I didn't read the Conservative one last time. I gather I didn't miss much.
The man is absurd. He'd find a way to say a no deal Brexit was not Brexit somehow. How many will believe him?
If May's deal wasn't Brexit (and many Tory MPs thought that was the case), then Boris's deal also isn't Brexit. Personally I think both are quite hard Brexit.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
If I vote LibDem, I get Camberwick Green.
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Camberwick Green is a good suggestion for the Orange Book Liberals.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
No mathematical answer but still a probability answer.
You need to be very careful in working out probabilities for "after the event" obeservations. The chances if you but a lottery ticket tomorrow, that you win next Saturday is 1:14 Million. But most weeks *somebody* wins the lottery.
The fact that you have noticed that something pretty unusual has happened, does not mean anything more than coincidence. Once you think how many Tarot readings are done each day, it is likely that at least one Tarot reader gets a remarkable result.
BTW I can see at least one mistake in your maths, I'll leave it to others to point it out :-)
Yes, but if I won the lottery four times in a row, that would be mathematically noteworthy.
Cmon PB, this is a betting and statistics site, can’t a brainiac crunch the numbers? I’m not asking anyone to believe in Tarot, I’m asking a genius to show their brilliant workings.
I'll do so, but not right now as I've just passed my third Saturn rising AND my birth planet is in Aquarius. I'll do the science when the augeries line up.
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
Two of last night's polls would barely produce a Tory majority on the basis of UNS - and when first time incumbency in Labour seats is factored in - five would be likely to be saved - the Tories would end up on 321 seats - ie a Hung Parliament. If we begin to see Tory leads of 7% or smaller. a Hung Parliament becomes likely.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
If I vote LibDem, I get Camberwick Green.
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Camberwick Green is a good suggestion for the Orange Book Liberals.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
Camberwick Green is perfect LibDem territory, though there is a touch of the Brexit Party about Pippin Fort.
There is substantial overmanning in the Trumpton Fire Services. It is more Corbynite, 70s Labour territory.
Still some incredibly close seats there. Tories miss Edgbaston and two Coventry seats by 1% for example. If there is a even a marginally greater swing to the Tories in the Midlands, then I reckon they will do very well there.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
While the incumbent’s credentials are...?
Winning a leadership election from within the party that has the most seats on the Commons, including getting most votes from both his MPs and members.
And the Commons has had a while to show they have no confidence in him as PM and has consistently refused to do so. And he's just called a GE to obtain a more substantial mandate.
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
Seems like fantastic advice to me. Backing constituency holds in the face of apparent "gasms" has provided 95% of my lifetime political betting success.
I met the LibDem candidate at the LD animal welfare conference fringe. He told the meeting that he wasn't against the badger cull, which went down extremely badly there but I guess does him credit for honesty and probably will be the preferred stance among most farmers.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
Don't bother. Milorad Pavic has already written the definitive tarot novel - Last Love in Constantinople.
Still some incredibly close seats there. Tories miss Edgbaston and two Coventry seats by 1% for example. If there is a even a marginally greater swing to the Tories in the Midlands, then I reckon they will do very well there.
Coventry south and northwest will be worked hard. Northeast is safe as houses for Labour
Comments
Likewise anyone criticising the Remain Alliance should want to get rid of FPTP because that is the only reason it is necessary. Similar argument applies to tactical voting.
Against many who just wanted to keep the PM in place and not have an Election as a bit of a laugh to see him “stew in his own juices.”
Trouble is, if this is the case, what is the mandate? It's not for any of the policies (apart from leaving the EU on Jan 31st). The only meaningful mandate flows from the voting rationale, therefore it will be to make people laugh. Or rather continue to make them laugh.
And this will not be easy. Replacing frictionless trade with a clunky 'FTA' which depresses GDP. Loosening employment protections which depresses workers. Promoting a further raft of lightweight reactionaries to cabinet which depresses almost everyone. I could go on. The point is that none of this has a great deal of obvious comedic potential. The nation will likely not be convulsed with the giggles. So trouble ahead, methinks.
There are. The public just don't take them up often.
You didn’t answer the question though, no one, not malky or anyone, how do you see Scotland winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
If this goes nowhere, then he perhaps needs a libel action, as you hint.
My constituency had a similar thing in 2015 - 10 year old allegations miraculously reemerged a few weeks before the election in a constituency that was then a Lab-Lib marginal. Poor guy was kept under investigation for years by the police, who then collapsed their case at the door of the Court.
Plaid Cymru voters are about 1/3 leave. I think the Remain Alliance will lose PC some of these voters. They won't be replaced by LibDems (who are very infrequent in Wales).
I don't know whether B&R is a good example, I think the LibDems were always favourites to take the seat (though not with a big majority)
I think the Tories will retake B&R at the GE, Dodds' by-election majority is IMO not big enough.
I see a majority of about 10-20 at the moment.
Richmond Park
Winchester
St Albans
Guildford (Milton going and local Conservatives in meltdown. I live here)
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Totnes (Wollaston is the Conservative defector certain to win)
South Cambridgeshire (local Conservative meltdown)
Additionally, the following could go either way, despite being out of play on UNS;
Wimbledon
City of London
Eastleigh
These are simply the seats of which I have some knowledge. I am sure others can comment on other seats. As well as these I will watch Mole Valley with interest (the Conservatives have railroaded a local plan which caused meltdown in May) and there are, of course, a raft of Labour London seats also at threat (Vauxhall, Bermondsey etc) which have no relation to UNS (plus Hallam in Sheffield).
If you do not think this is a material deviation from UNS then I wish you well in your donations to the bookies.
I need some of the many PB mathematical genius to assist me.
I am doing a series of tarot readings on a tricky life question.
I’ve done four readings (where I choose three cards). In EVERY reading the same card has appeared, amongst the three cards (and always upright).
What are the statistical chances of this?
There are 78 cards in a Tarot deck.
My GCSE maths tells me, therefore, that the chances of doing this are 78/3 x 78/3 x 78/3, because the first draw could have produced any card in the three.
= 1 in 17576
The chances of pulling the same card upright, four times over, in a three card reading, is
1 in 140,608
I’m almost certainly wrong so would welcome guidance and correction!
I think I can tell you the "hand on heart" answer: If I thought there was a chance to reduce the number of MPs serving under Boris Johnson, then I would vote PC, otherwise no. I would not however vote Sinn Fein, not even tactically.
Johnson may “bluster” etc but at least he doesn’t look like he perennially sucks on lemons with a face like Dot Cotton licking piss off a nettle.
If anything Catalan has even more of independent mercantile and political history and more of its own language than Scotland has?
In Welsh Labour, it went:
i) Allegations Made by Unnamed Individual,
ii) Carl Sergeant Sacked as Minister and Suspended,
iii) Publicity Release by First Minister,
iv) Sergeant hangs himself,
v) Labour votes to ensure that the report on Sergeant's sacking is never published.
We still do not know the identity and precise nature of the complainant.
Now, maybe Sergeant was a predator. Maybe not. Who knows?
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
I think you can add Wells to your list.
You need to be very careful in working out probabilities for "after the event" obeservations. The chances if you but a lottery ticket tomorrow, that you win next Saturday is 1:14 Million. But most weeks *somebody* wins the lottery.
The fact that you have noticed that something pretty unusual has happened, does not mean anything more than coincidence. Once you think how many Tarot readings are done each day, it is likely that at least one Tarot reader gets a remarkable result.
BTW I can see at least one mistake in your maths, I'll leave it to others to point it out :-)
It will be interesting in Stirling where the SNP has parachuted in its No 1 MEP Alyn Smith. Surely if it was confident of stopping Brexit, it wouldn't be trying to find a new job for the soon to be ex MEP!! It could turn out to be one of those "low hanging fruit" seats that remains low hanging!
Wants to use science to assess the significance of it.
Boris doesn't have a huge amount going for him if you cut through the spin. He's producing a Brexit outcome, and he's the sitting Prime Minister, so should be getting safe-hands familiar-figure votes. Point 1 is a definite plus for many. But he'd be better off if he scored on point 2 as well. I did say it showed strengths too, but I think on balance it's a missed opportunity for him.
Cmon PB, this is a betting and statistics site, can’t a brainiac crunch the numbers? I’m not asking anyone to believe in Tarot, I’m asking a genius to show their brilliant workings.
There are no Plaid Cymru/Tory marginals, so you will never reduce the number of MPs serving under Boris Johnson by voting Plaid Cymru.
Probably the only constituencies in which your vote might conceivably change the MP are Arfon and Ynys Mon.
Here you will have a choice between Plaid Cymru and a Remainer Labour candidate. My guess is you (and most LibDems) would be happier voting for the latter. After all, who are you voting for in Exeter ...
I have no problem with people voting tactically, or making arrangements to swap votes (as OGH has done in the past) to mitigate the effects of FPTP.
But, I think the Remain Alliance is a pernicious & bad idea.
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
Been on the ground in Totnes constituency like me, have you? Because if you had, you wouldn't paint it at 100%.
Sure, Wollaston will do well in Totnes town itself. But it used to be proudly twinned with Narnia.
Bear in mind though that Brixham is a town only slightly smaller than Totnes. It is also the largest port for landing fish in England and Wales. Wollaston's only hope is that they are voting Brexit.
But as with the smaller towns/big villages that litter the Totnes constituency, the Tory vote in Brixham is holding up really, really well.
There are lots of old people in Singapore, a tenth of the population in fact is older than 65. This is slanted lower than the roughly one fifth in Europe by large scale immigration that is biased towards lower age groups. So yes, Mystic Rose is ignorant in this matter and you have no right to accuse me of not doings facts. Or “FACTS” for that matter.
By the way to Sandpit and others, there’s plenty of great places in Singapore where booze is priced equivalently to London. Hook me up next time and I’ll tell you where.
It’s one to watch as the HY 20+ majority model has Tories taking on Labour from a base of seeing off every defector and whipless wonder.
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore.
If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela.
If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway.
If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI.
If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts.
If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand.
If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
https://thetravellocker.com/2016/06/07/totnes-devon-twinned-with-narnia/
Most defector MPs (who don't chicken run) do actually lose.
Exceptions: I can think of Carswell in 2015, Wrigglesworth in 1987. That's all.
My money would be on Zero. Maybe one of the defectors will survive, but more than that ...
...unless of course nominal leavers genuinely don’t care much about Brexit, of course...
My current probabilities.
Labour majority 0%
Tory majority 80%
NOM 20%
2.04 Tory majority on Betfair Exchange is decent value.
https://twitter.com/amandacc92/status/1190937996733886464?s=21
The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
8 polls* with fieldwork end-dates from 30th Oct to 2nd Nov (ie. after the election was called):
CON 37.88%
LAB 26.63%
LD 16.00%
BXP 10.38%
SNP 3.63%
GRN 3.25%
PC 0.75%
Oth 1.25%
Tory lead 11.25%
[* Deltapoll, Opinium, YouGov (x2), ComRes, ORB, Panelbase, Survation]
All I'm saying is, based on the evidence so far, the supreme victory of Liberal Democratism nationwide looks unlikely.
Thurrock Con/BXP/Lab 32/28/26
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing
And the facts are that the Tory ERG and PM were dead set against this type of deal when May was in charge, and have capitulated to the EU in order to stay in office. Farage is generally wrong, but on this he is right to say the Johnson deal is not the Brexit that was promised either.
Well that should bring the Remainer Tories back in the fold....
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Con 367
Lab 180
SNP 49
LD 31
PC 4
Grn 1
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/37.88/26.63/16/10.38/3.25/3.63/0.3/0.75
I want Defectors who Held on in the subsequent GE.
(The record is better for by-elections, which is why the TIGgers should have called by-elections, for tactical reasons).
Bluntly, a lot of dodgy Eastern European and Russian money has flowed into Britain in recent years and a lot of people, banks, regulators and other organisations have been, how can I put this, less than scrupulous at inquiring into the sources of that money and the people who front it up.
Joseph Kenworthy held on in 1929
Dick Taverne held on in Feb 1974, but lost in Oct 1974.
In 2017, Zac regained a by-election loss (but probably doesn't count).
I would imagine all the TIGGers, all the Labour defectors and all the whipless Tory semi-independents will lose.
Some are not even standing, and some that are standing are probably doing so for the improved financial pay-off.
I actually think some will be absolutely humiliated, like Simon Danczuk was.
MPs generally do not have large personal votes. I doubt if Sandbach or Soubry will get more than a thousand or two.
Personally I think both are quite hard Brexit.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
A bit like Trump in that regard.
There is substantial overmanning in the Trumpton Fire Services. It is more Corbynite, 70s Labour territory.
And the Commons has had a while to show they have no confidence in him as PM and has consistently refused to do so. And he's just called a GE to obtain a more substantial mandate.
What more do you want?
However, two decimal places, FFS. I thought that scientists knew the difference between accuracy and precision.
Don't bother. Milorad Pavic has already written the definitive tarot novel - Last Love in Constantinople.
Make it about lottery scratchcards instead.
Or Maybe it was 1dp...
At any rate, only 6 more ELBOWs scheduled before polling day!