Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting

13

Comments

  • I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    Everyone should be free to work the hours they choose on the days they choose (subject to safety limits where applicable). The government should incentivise companies and employees to have a good work/life balance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    edited October 2019


    stodge said:


    I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.

    Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.

    Snip
    With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.

    Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.

    Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
    There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.

    The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
    I'm confused. What about Sunday?
    Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
    But the hospitality sector will also have that day off won’t they? Likewise the trains and buses.
    Er no. Do they already have weekends off? No.
    But this is an extra day for all.
    You really aren’t grasping this are you? How many days do you think people in hospitality jobs work currently?

    What is the actual four day week policy?

    I have no idea. I don’t even know if there is one. I’m just posing the question. It’s worth thinking about. I have never understood why society getting more technologically advanced should result in more days at work. The trend over history is to work fewer days. And rightly so, I doubt many people on their death beds wish they’d spent more days at the office and fewer with their families and friends.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    "Not for sale" features on BBC News at 10.

    Jezza onto something.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    Everyone should be free to work the hours they choose on the days they choose (subject to safety limits where applicable). The government should incentivise companies and employees to have a good work/life balance.
    Of course but you need some guidance, hence the cultural acceptance that Saturday and Sunday are weekends for office staff. Adding Friday isn’t a bad idea: I feel we’d be more productive.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:



    £70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.

    lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.

    In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
    Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
    I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.

    Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.

    The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.

    All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.



    What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    I can't think of a fourth after SPSS, SAS, Stata....

    But R is doing well in academia! I think?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    There does have to be a point beyond which the standard working week cannot be reduced though. I just don't know where that point is.
    Agree. I just don’t think we are there yet, hence my support for a rethink. I think the working week is probably about a day too long.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    "Not for sale" features on BBC News at 10.

    Jezza onto something.

    I’ve been watching Netflix and bantering around on here. What is this ‘not for sale’ stuff?
  • I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    Everyone should be free to work the hours they choose on the days they choose (subject to safety limits where applicable). The government should incentivise companies and employees to have a good work/life balance.
    Of course but you need some guidance, hence the cultural acceptance that Saturday and Sunday are weekends for office staff. Adding Friday isn’t a bad idea: I feel we’d be more productive.
    We dont need guidance, guidance is actually bad! Too many people commute to arrive at 8 or 9 because that is the guidance, for a lot of companies it would make little difference if they arrived at 7 or 1 instead as long as they did the hours and got the work done. The commutes would then be cheaper, more comfortable and quicker.

    Let the working week become more diverse and flexible, we dont need government guidance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Freggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:



    £70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.

    lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.

    In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
    Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
    I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.

    Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.

    The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.

    All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.



    What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    I can't think of a fourth after SPSS, SAS, Stata....

    But R is doing well in academia! I think?
    SciPy....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:


    Plenty of economists in 2006 were predicting a massive housing crash in America.

    Some certainly. I'm not sure many established economists did so, and if I was a young economist I'd chance my arm on pretty much anything.
    It must have been a fair number of fairly mainstream ones as I was confidentially telling my American office mate that his bullishness about the American economy was misplaced as the numbers were soft and based on a huge housing bubble that was showing signs of being at its peak and ready to pop.

    I'm not big into economic forecasts so it must have been fairly mainstream as a thought by then for me to get it.

    Certainly criticism of the rating of CDOs was prevalent in 2006 and the problems that would bring.
    I think there were some economists who were predicting disaster continuously since the dust settled from the bursting of the dotcom boom. So certainly the idea was out there, but without a prediction of when it would go south that had any skill it made it hard to react to. What's the saying, "the market can stay irrational for longer then you can stay solvent."

    It's the same with the next downturn. There have been economists warning that the response to the Great Financial Crash did nothing to solve the fundamental problems and is storing up problems for the next crash, but I think none of them would have been surprised if it had fallen apart in 2013, and here we are in 2019 and it's possible that the wheels have already fallen off and we are continuing only with our momentum, but how certain can we be of this, and would it have been accurately predicted a year ago?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    #MeToo

    Main site down

  • I have no idea. I don’t even know if there is one. I’m just posing the question. It’s worth thinking about. I have never understood why society getting more technologically advanced should result in more days at work. The trend over history is to work fewer days. And rightly so, I doubt many people on their death beds wish they’d spent more days at the office and fewer with their families and friends.

    In that case, I suspect that it will happen organically with people working flexible hours or part-time (I work part-time for instance, as do a significant number of the staff at my school). Having everything shut down for an extra day seems excessive though - in fact if we are to become more productive and use fewer resources for the same output then we need to be able to use the facilities we have for more of the time. I can see people working a four day week in the future, or even less for some, but I would be surprised if the economy did.

    From my own experience, Wednesday is the best day off anyway, not Friday.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,721
    Freggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:



    £70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.

    lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.

    In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
    Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
    I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.

    Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.

    The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.

    All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.



    What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    I can't think of a fourth after SPSS, SAS, Stata....

    But R is doing well in academia! I think?
    S plus, Survo
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    Everyone should be free to work the hours they choose on the days they choose (subject to safety limits where applicable). The government should incentivise companies and employees to have a good work/life balance.
    Of course but you need some guidance, hence the cultural acceptance that Saturday and Sunday are weekends for office staff. Adding Friday isn’t a bad idea: I feel we’d be more productive.
    We dont need guidance, guidance is actually bad! Too many people commute to arrive at 8 or 9 because that is the guidance, for a lot of companies it would make little difference if they arrived at 7 or 1 instead as long as they did the hours and got the work done. The commutes would then be cheaper, more comfortable and quicker.

    Let the working week become more diverse and flexible, we dont need government guidance.
    I have some sympathy with that view, certainly the spirit of it. In which case there would be no need for mandated hours at all (and, philosophically, that is indeed the case in many professions).

    The danger is though, that many people would be then pressured into working more, and mothers etc would be even more under pressure than now. Witness what has happened when people are given unlimited holidays: they often end up taking fewer than when they were given an annual allocation.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.
  • I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.

    Everyone should be free to work the hours they choose on the days they choose (subject to safety limits where applicable). The government should incentivise companies and employees to have a good work/life balance.
    Of course but you need some guidance, hence the cultural acceptance that Saturday and Sunday are weekends for office staff. Adding Friday isn’t a bad idea: I feel we’d be more productive.
    We dont need guidance, guidance is actually bad! Too many people commute to arrive at 8 or 9 because that is the guidance, for a lot of companies it would make little difference if they arrived at 7 or 1 instead as long as they did the hours and got the work done. The commutes would then be cheaper, more comfortable and quicker.

    Let the working week become more diverse and flexible, we dont need government guidance.
    I have some sympathy with that view, certainly the spirit of it. In which case there would be no need for mandated hours at all (and, philosophically, that is indeed the case in many professions).

    The danger is though, that many people would be then pressured into working more, and mothers etc would be even more under pressure than now. Witness what has happened when people are given unlimited holidays: they often end up taking fewer than when they were given an annual allocation.
    That is why I say the role of the state is to incentivise flexible working, not direct how and when we should work.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Freggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:



    Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.

    I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.

    Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.

    The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.

    All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.



    What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    I can't think of a fourth after SPSS, SAS, Stata....

    But R is doing well in academia! I think?
    S-plus (although that's pretty well obsolete now)

    R is used primarily by statisticians, but people who do modelling or machine learning tend to use Python. As both are free people gravitate towards those with the greatest range of techniques, so Python is doing well and - surprisingly - R, which was the Next Big Thing, is now seen as unhip and declining in popularity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498


    I have no idea. I don’t even know if there is one. I’m just posing the question. It’s worth thinking about. I have never understood why society getting more technologically advanced should result in more days at work. The trend over history is to work fewer days. And rightly so, I doubt many people on their death beds wish they’d spent more days at the office and fewer with their families and friends.

    In that case, I suspect that it will happen organically with people working flexible hours or part-time (I work part-time for instance, as do a significant number of the staff at my school). Having everything shut down for an extra day seems excessive though - in fact if we are to become more productive and use fewer resources for the same output then we need to be able to use the facilities we have for more of the time. I can see people working a four day week in the future, or even less for some, but I would be surprised if the economy did.

    From my own experience, Wednesday is the best day off anyway, not Friday.
    Actually I agree about the Wednesday point. But, I think businesses prefer weekends in blocks. There is only one country in the whole world which has a split weekend...

    PB quiz... (no googling)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    "Not for sale" features on BBC News at 10.

    Jezza onto something.

    Please leave my hospital.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1190013380205133837?s=19
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Freggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:



    lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.

    In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.

    Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
    I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.

    Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.

    The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.

    All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.



    What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    I can't think of a fourth after SPSS, SAS, Stata....

    But R is doing well in academia! I think?
    SciPy....
    Ouch! I am stupid... :(
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Answers in italics...
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:


    I do male ECONOMIC modelling.

    Sigh...

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    SPSS, um...
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    I would build a model in Fortran, but that's because when I hear "model" I think of partial differential equations, which is probably not what you are thinking of.
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    It's a lot easier to share and re-use code in Python than in R. Also, scientists use Python. Also the graphical plotting in Python is prettier by default than in R.
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    I'm afraid I don't recall (but I'm suitably wary of both).
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    I could guess, but that would be silly.
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    Don't know
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    A proper treatment of uncertainty is required, but often neglected.
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    If I understand the question correctly then I would say a Gaussian distribution.
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    I would have thought Poisson.
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?
    Poisson. I'm sure there's a good song that could be written about it. Interestingly the distribution of rainfall is also poisson.
    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

  • I have no idea. I don’t even know if there is one. I’m just posing the question. It’s worth thinking about. I have never understood why society getting more technologically advanced should result in more days at work. The trend over history is to work fewer days. And rightly so, I doubt many people on their death beds wish they’d spent more days at the office and fewer with their families and friends.

    In that case, I suspect that it will happen organically with people working flexible hours or part-time (I work part-time for instance, as do a significant number of the staff at my school). Having everything shut down for an extra day seems excessive though - in fact if we are to become more productive and use fewer resources for the same output then we need to be able to use the facilities we have for more of the time. I can see people working a four day week in the future, or even less for some, but I would be surprised if the economy did.

    From my own experience, Wednesday is the best day off anyway, not Friday.
    Actually I agree about the Wednesday point. But, I think businesses prefer weekends in blocks. There is only one country in the whole world which has a split weekend...

    PB quiz... (no googling)
    The thing is I don’t expect everybody to take the same day off. If we did then we would need 25% more of everything than we would if people worked for 80% of the time spread round a five day working week.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    GIN1138 said:

    JRM will win comfortably IMO.
    Presumably (to borrow from Blackadder) under the appropriate slogan for a December election of;

    The cold is just God's way of telling us to burn another Lib Dem.

    If they ever remake Witchfinder General JRM has another career option.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    GIN1138 said:

    JRM will win comfortably IMO.
    Probably. The next election however might be more interesting.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Best non-election story of the day? https://theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/31/goats-save-ronald-reagan-library-wildfire

    EDIT Not sure the link works exactly, but the headline should say it all.

    I knew a Government Of All The TalentS was a brilliant idea...
  • Breaking news

    Jennifer Arcuri's £100,000 grant has been deemed appropriate.

    The Culture Secretary, Nicky Morgan says the review found

    "no impropriety in the awarding of the grant"

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    PaulM said:

    Barnesian
    FPT
    Your model for St Albans has LD 37,000, Con 22,000 Labour 0
    I know there will be tactical voting, but is there a bug somewhere ?

    @PaulM Sorry for the delay. Just back from trick and treating.

    The UNS assumption (take the national swing off the share in every constituency) leads to negative shares when the original share is small. I have set negative shares to zero. It's not a bug. It is an unrealistic assumption of UNS which most people and models seem to use. I try to mitigate it with the part use of a multiplicative model but that has its own problems with large shares.

    The problem isn't with the tactical voting assumptions. It doesn't assume all Labour voters in St Albans tactically vote LD! It has over estimated the underlying shift against Labour because the Labour share was so small to start with.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Byronic said:

    #MeToo

    Main site down

    You'll have missed a plug for airport literature :smile:
    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    First, nobody is saying they are "going to cancel democracy". I appreciate you are interpreting having another referendum as cancelling democracy but it simply isn't. At worst it could be classed as ignoring the voters wishes, although if voters wish it that much a binding 2nd ref would allow those wishes to be fulfilled.

    Secondly, most voters are are not "very very very angry". Only a very few are outraged. No one has any excuse for making voilent threats.
  • Foxy said:

    "Not for sale" features on BBC News at 10.

    Jezza onto something.

    Please leave my hospital.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1190013380205133837?s=19
    It is not 'my' hospital
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    So in the article where you claimed she wanted to cancel democracy she in fact called for an exercise in democracy.

    “We will continue to work closely with all parties and all movements, as we’ve always done, to secure a People’s Vote.”

    Not very good at this, are you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    I assume it must be a spoof: not even the Lib Dems would do this would they?
    It is aggressive sure, but what actually is so wrong about it? They are making the point that only the LDs can challenge which is what the numbers suggest. If Labour want to pay for a similar question to be asked they can but I doubt the numbers would be there for them.

    I have a bigger issue with the newspapers and even BBC using biased and misleading questions for media reporting than politicians or companies advertising.
    Labour has a higher vote floor in many seats but they also have a lower vote ceiling, which is a key concept in identifying who is best placed to stand any chance of beating the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    Revoke A50 ≠ 'cancel democracy'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Breaking news

    Jennifer Arcuri's £100,000 grant has been deemed appropriate.

    The Culture Secretary, Nicky Morgan says the review found

    "no impropriety in the awarding of the grant"

    Lol who decided that, Nicky Morgan :D ?!
  • Houston we have a problem with the main site....no thread is showing up.

    Yes, I have same problem. Now on Vanilla directly.
    Yep, same for me, and @GIN1138 also reporting same issue.
    Can't see comments on Microsoft Edge, switched to Internet Explorer and it's OK!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Breaking news

    Jennifer Arcuri's £100,000 grant has been deemed appropriate.

    The Culture Secretary, Nicky Morgan says the review found

    "no impropriety in the awarding of the grant"

    Lol who decided that, Nicky Morgan :D ?!
    Are you questioning her integrity and her committees
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    edited October 2019

    Breaking news

    Jennifer Arcuri's £100,000 grant has been deemed appropriate.

    The Culture Secretary, Nicky Morgan says the review found

    "no impropriety in the awarding of the grant"

    Has she spent the money well? This story has finished with a happy ending, so at least something wasn't spaffed against the wall.
  • Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    If these rats seats are retaken by the Tories at the election on result night that's a Tory Hold isn't it? While if they hold onto their seat it will be a Lib Dem Gain won't it?
  • I assume it must be a spoof: not even the Lib Dems would do this would they?
    It is aggressive sure, but what actually is so wrong about it? They are making the point that only the LDs can challenge which is what the numbers suggest. If Labour want to pay for a similar question to be asked they can but I doubt the numbers would be there for them.

    I have a bigger issue with the newspapers and even BBC using biased and misleading questions for media reporting than politicians or companies advertising.
    Did you read the small print? It says that even if everyone who possibly might vote LD did then they would still lose.
  • viewcode said:

    (I am on a train. I hate trains)

    Hisss! Boo!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    If these rats seats are retaken by the Tories at the election on result night that's a Tory Hold isn't it? While if they hold onto their seat it will be a Lib Dem Gain won't it?
    Yes
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    #MeToo

    Main site down

    You'll have missed a plug for airport literature :smile:
    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    First, nobody is saying they are "going to cancel democracy". I appreciate you are interpreting having another referendum as cancelling democracy but it simply isn't. At worst it could be classed as ignoring the voters wishes, although if voters wish it that much a binding 2nd ref would allow those wishes to be fulfilled.

    Secondly, most voters are are not "very very very angry". Only a very few are outraged. No one has any excuse for making voilent threats.
    No. Soubry has gone beyond calling for another referendum, she has several times called for Revoke. That is the very definition of cancelling democracy. It literally means overturning a vote you don't like.

    Here she is, doing it again

    https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/celebrities-politicians-speak-at-anti-brexit-rally-anna-soubry-claims-uk-must-revoke-article-50/
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    She's standing in Eddisbury. Might help the Lib Dems edge second.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    So in the article where you claimed she wanted to cancel democracy she in fact called for an exercise in democracy.

    “We will continue to work closely with all parties and all movements, as we’ve always done, to secure a People’s Vote.”

    Not very good at this, are you?
    I've given two examples of her calling for Revoke

    Here's a third. She signed the petition calling for Revoke

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revoke_Article_50_and_remain_in_the_EU_petition

    "Notable supporters

    A number of celebrities and high-profile politicians have publicly stated that they have signed the petition, including....

    Politicians

    Anna Soubry MP, Leader of The Independent Group for Change"

    Now do shut up.
  • Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    What effect does a significant number of ex-Tories joining the Lib Dem’s have on the willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically for them? I’m not sure it helps.

    It should make it easier for those who have voted Tory before to switch though.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    So in the article where you claimed she wanted to cancel democracy she in fact called for an exercise in democracy.

    “We will continue to work closely with all parties and all movements, as we’ve always done, to secure a People’s Vote.”

    Not very good at this, are you?
    I've given two examples of her calling for Revoke

    Here's a third. She signed the petition calling for Revoke

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revoke_Article_50_and_remain_in_the_EU_petition

    "Notable supporters

    A number of celebrities and high-profile politicians have publicly stated that they have signed the petition, including....

    Politicians

    Anna Soubry MP, Leader of The Independent Group for Change"

    Now do shut up.
    Faced with a choice between no deal and revoke, neither of which is mandated, revoke is an entirely reasonable course. .

    And returning to your initial and rather ugly post, no one deserves abuse and threats for making that argument.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    What effect does a significant number of ex-Tories joining the Lib Dem’s have on the willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically for them? I’m not sure it helps.

    It should make it easier for those who have voted Tory before to switch though.
    Time was that Tories would defect to the Labour Party if they decided they no longer felt comfortable with the blue party. I know it's not surprising, but it is notable that so many MPs have left the Conservatives and none of them have joined the official opposition.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    It is Brummies for Boris.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    So in the article where you claimed she wanted to cancel democracy she in fact called for an exercise in democracy.

    “We will continue to work closely with all parties and all movements, as we’ve always done, to secure a People’s Vote.”

    Not very good at this, are you?
    I've given two examples of her calling for Revoke

    Here's a third. She signed the petition calling for Revoke

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revoke_Article_50_and_remain_in_the_EU_petition

    "Notable supporters

    A number of celebrities and high-profile politicians have publicly stated that they have signed the petition, including....

    Politicians

    Anna Soubry MP, Leader of The Independent Group for Change"

    Now do shut up.
    Faced with a choice between no deal and revoke, neither of which is mandated, revoke is an entirely reasonable course. .

    And returning to your initial and rather ugly post, no one deserves abuse and threats for making that argument.
    It is pointless arguing with people who refuse to accept conclusive evidence put before them. So I suggest we abandon this dialogue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    What effect does a significant number of ex-Tories joining the Lib Dem’s have on the willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically for them? I’m not sure it helps.

    It should make it easier for those who have voted Tory before to switch though.
    I'm not sure it matters. The voting pool the Lib Dems need to target are soft Tories who don't want to vote for a Farage/Johnson Blukip party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s nearly Brexit time. Do or die.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    It’s nearly Brexit time. Do or die.

    lol. I reckon Dom has a cunning plan and we are going to Brexit in about four minutes, without anyone understanding why or how.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    Talking of amusing spin from political parties, if you want a good cynical laugh take a gander at the website of the Runnymede and Weybridge Conservatives. It's like something out of the Soviet Union under Stalin: every single mention of he-who-shall-not-be-named-but-who-until-last-month-was-their-distinguished-Tory-MP-and-Cabinet-minister has been ruthlessly airbrushed out of existence:

    https://www.runnymedeweybridgeconservatives.com/

    For my part, this is the acid test. Given the belated conversion of Boris to avoiding crashing out in chaos, I could consider voting Conservative again, especially since the LibDems are pretty dire. But there is no way I'll vote for a party which hasn't got room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke etc, and which indeed is waging some kind of vindictive vendetta against them, and for that matter against Amber Rudd who doesn't even want to stand again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Jonathan said:

    It’s nearly Brexit time. Do or die.

    Keep a watch on your ditches.
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s nearly Brexit time. Do or die.

    lol. I reckon Dom has a cunning plan and we are going to Brexit in about four minutes, without anyone understanding why or how.
    Posting this from a nice comfy ditch :lol:
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Streeter said:

    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    When did she say she would cancel democracy? Quote, date, place please.
    Well that took 5 seconds of Googling

    "We have to Revoke Article 50"

    Anna Soubry, writing in The Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-s-going-to-come-down-to-this-binary-choice-no-deal-or-revoke-7zv3g5s6g
    So in the article where you claimed she wanted to cancel democracy she in fact called for an exercise in democracy.

    “We will continue to work closely with all parties and all movements, as we’ve always done, to secure a People’s Vote.”

    Not very good at this, are you?
    I've given two examples of her calling for Revoke

    Here's a third. She signed the petition calling for Revoke

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revoke_Article_50_and_remain_in_the_EU_petition

    "Notable supporters

    A number of celebrities and high-profile politicians have publicly stated that they have signed the petition, including....

    Politicians

    Anna Soubry MP, Leader of The Independent Group for Change"

    Now do shut up.
    Faced with a choice between no deal and revoke, neither of which is mandated, revoke is an entirely reasonable course. .

    And returning to your initial and rather ugly post, no one deserves abuse and threats for making that argument.
    It is pointless arguing with people who refuse to accept conclusive evidence put before them. So I suggest we abandon this dialogue.
    And I suggest you are placing blame for threatening behaviour upon its target.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s Brexit time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Answers in italics...

    (trimmed for size)

    1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
    2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
    3) Why is python thriving and R not?
    It's a lot easier to share and re-use code in Python than in R. Also, scientists use Python. Also the graphical plotting in Python is prettier by default than in R.
    4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
    5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
    6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
    7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
    8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
    9) how would you prevent overfitting?
    10) describe forward and backward selection
    11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
    12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
    13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
    14) what is the distribution of bus times?
    Poisson. I'm sure there's a good song that could be written about it. Interestingly the distribution of rainfall is also poisson.

    1) SAS, Stata, SPSS, S-plus, SciPy...
    2) the one I see most often is extreme gradient boosting, or XGBoost. Apols if wrong
    3) yep, I'd go with that.
    4) linear regression models one function and is sensitive to normality - if the residuals are non-normal you have to transform your variables. GLMs have two functions (error and link functions) which removes the necessity for normality
    5) linear regression is for continuous variables, logistic regression is for categorical variables.
    6) Prophet? (Now obsolete?)
    7) Emblem
    8) SAS (office and medical statistics), though I think agricultural and field workers used to have a Stata bias.
    9) fit your chosen variables one-by-one and plot the variance on a graph. The curve is steep at the beginning but levels off. When it starts levelling off stop fitting.
    10) forward selection is when you start of with no variables fitted and progressively add them, backward selection is when you fit all the variables and progressively remove them
    11) item response theory has a detection curve that is s-shaped, which allows it to distinguish fine differences at the extremes.
    12) and 13) I'd've gone with Poisson for frequency and gamma for severity, but happy to be contradicted
    14) YES! Which is why you always have to wait for a bus, regardless of when you arrive at the bus stop... :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Finally we’re out. Do or die. Come what may.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Finally we’re out. Do or die. Come what may.

    My passport has just changed colour! It's a species of magic.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s amazing. Finally Brexit is upon us.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Finally free of the yoke of the EU at last.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The relentless Labour emphasis on the NHS not working well on QT. If this is all that Labour has they are in trouble. They are going to bore voters to death.

    Oooh, Labour guy being booed!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Eddisbury. Stayed Conservative in the 1997 landslide. High point for the Liberal Democrats of just over 10k seats in 2010, but they barely saved their deposit in 2017. Estimated at 52.2% Leave.

    I guess we get to see a sense of Sandbach's personal vote.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Talking of amusing spin from political parties, if you want a good cynical laugh take a gander at the website of the Runnymede and Weybridge Conservatives. It's like something out of the Soviet Union under Stalin: every single mention of he-who-shall-not-be-named-but-who-until-last-month-was-their-distinguished-Tory-MP-and-Cabinet-minister has been ruthlessly airbrushed out of existence:

    https://www.runnymedeweybridgeconservatives.com/

    For my part, this is the acid test. Given the belated conversion of Boris to avoiding crashing out in chaos, I could consider voting Conservative again, especially since the LibDems are pretty dire. But there is no way I'll vote for a party which hasn't got room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke etc, and which indeed is waging some kind of vindictive vendetta against them, and for that matter against Amber Rudd who doesn't even want to stand again.

    Gauke and Rudd maybe you have a point, but Hammond has relentlessly attacked the Tories, you cannot seriously expect them to readmit him.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Jonathan said:

    It’s amazing. Finally Brexit is upon us.

    It doesn't feel that different, to be honest .... :)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Byronic said:

    The relentless Labour emphasis on the NHS not working well on QT. If this is all that Labour has they are in trouble. They are going to bore voters to death.

    Oooh, Labour guy being booed!

    If Labour are saying the same things as 2017 they need to be careful. Lots of people gave them the benefit of the doubt and voted for them then. Since then we have had

    - almost all Jewish Labour Mps have left
    - Being investigated for antisemtism
    - Corbyn has shown the leadership of a wet lettuce dealing with it
    - Incoherent Brexit policy - you can and regularly do get two senior figures saying different things on the same day
    - Blocked almost all options for Brexit - May deal was basically what they wanted but they wouldn’t vote for a bad Tory Brexit only a good Labour Brexit

    I’m sure there are lots of other things but it’s not as likely to give you a warm morally superior glow now
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s amazing. Finally Brexit is upon us.

    It doesn't feel that different, to be honest .... :)
    I've just taken back control of another bottle of wine. I love this new Brexitland
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I appears Boris is full of horse shit after all. Bluster isn’t enough. Who knew?
  • Gabs2 said:



    I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole.

    I'm Jewish, though non-practising, and a former national executive member of Labour Friends of Israel. I think you are applying different criteria to the party leader you prefer. Corbyn absolutely hasn't vilified Jews (as a whole or in part) and your interpretation of the picaninnies comment is, well, generous to a fault.

    .
    It's not close though, is it? 83% of Jews do think Corbyn is personally Antisemitic. A greater number believe Labour tolerates higher levels of Antisemitism than any other party. Even if Corbyn hasn't "vilified Jews as a whole", he has laid wreaths for those who planned their murders, honoured those who wish a genocide against them as friends, and hosted in Parliament those who believe their bread is baked with the blood of gentiles.

    The unluckiest anti-racist in England, as he's known.
    Your statement about who he laid Wreaths for is untrue.

    Corbyn did indeed attend a wreath-lying ceremony in 2014 where victims of the 1985 Israeli airstrike against the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organisation in Tunis were remembered – an attack that had been condemned at the time by the UN and by Margaret Thatcher. The attack killed around 50 people, mostly Palestinians, and injured many more.



    While wreaths may also have been laid at other graves, Corbyn did not participate in these ceremonies. Nor are any of the graves those of Munich perpetrators, who are mostly buried in Libya. None is buried in Tunis.
    My statement is not untrue. Yours is, and was rapidly debunked when the Milne-machine tried to run it at the me.

    It has been verified by people attending the site, and through clear photographic evidence, that the graves n which Corbyn laid the wreath are those of the leadership of Black September - the planners, funders, and instigators, of the kidnap, castration, and murder of Jewish civilians. You will note I said planners, not perpetrators. You are correct that the hired muscle who did the deed are buried elsewhere.

    The wreath-layingng ceremony for the bombing was indeed held, during the same conference. It was held elsewhere, because that memorial is elsewhere. There are photos of that ceremony too, in which Corbyn can be seen at the back of a large group, not holding a wreath. The wreath he laid was for the leaders of the terror gang, not the broader PLO.

  • Byronic said:

    Gauke and Rudd maybe you have a point, but Hammond has relentlessly attacked the Tories, you cannot seriously expect them to readmit him.

    He has been massively more loyal to the party than the current PM or Leader of the House, and it seems that his one and only red line - not crashing out in chaos - was shared after all by Boris, once he'd actually bothered to inform himself of what a disaster No Deal would have been.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s amazing. Finally Brexit is upon us.

    It doesn't feel that different, to be honest .... :)
    I've just taken back control of another bottle of wine. I love this new Brexitland
    I'm getting off the train in ten minutes. Brexit has made a measurable improvement to my life!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    Definitely need a few more Labour MPs now to balance out these ex Tories.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    The relentless Labour emphasis on the NHS not working well on QT. If this is all that Labour has they are in trouble. They are going to bore voters to death.

    Oooh, Labour guy being booed!

    If Labour are saying the same things as 2017 they need to be careful. Lots of people gave them the benefit of the doubt and voted for them then. Since then we have had

    - almost all Jewish Labour Mps have left
    - Being investigated for antisemtism
    - Corbyn has shown the leadership of a wet lettuce dealing with it
    - Incoherent Brexit policy - you can and regularly do get two senior figures saying different things on the same day
    - Blocked almost all options for Brexit - May deal was basically what they wanted but they wouldn’t vote for a bad Tory Brexit only a good Labour Brexit

    I’m sure there are lots of other things but it’s not as likely to give you a warm morally superior glow now
    The booing of a Labour MP talking about the NHS is entirely new. And intriguing. It does imply there is limited mileage here. If that is the case, what ELSE will Labour talk about?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Liberal Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1190027485162987526

    Definitely need a few more Labour MPs now to balance out these ex Tories.
    She won't be a LibDem MP for long, though...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,721
    QT: She teaches about politics but can't be arsed to read the article in which Boris mentioned letterboxes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Not that they are swimming in really old MPs or anything, but its interesting that Swinson as LD leader is younger than all but 2 of her MPs.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    #MeToo

    Main site down

    You'll have missed a plug for airport literature :smile:
    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    First, nobody is saying they are "going to cancel democracy". I appreciate you are interpreting having another referendum as cancelling democracy but it simply isn't. At worst it could be classed as ignoring the voters wishes, although if voters wish it that much a binding 2nd ref would allow those wishes to be fulfilled.

    Secondly, most voters are are not "very very very angry". Only a very few are outraged. No one has any excuse for making voilent threats.
    No. Soubry has gone beyond calling for another referendum, she has several times called for Revoke. That is the very definition of cancelling democracy. It literally means overturning a vote you don't like.

    Here she is, doing it again

    https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/celebrities-politicians-speak-at-anti-brexit-rally-anna-soubry-claims-uk-must-revoke-article-50/
    Over a hundred tory MPs voted against the Scotland Act to establish the Scottish Parliament. After a referendum that was won by a margin of 49 percentage points.

    Were they cancelling democracy? Would they have been justifiable targets for very, very, very angry people?

    Many of them are still in parliament today.
  • Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I am liking these defectors standing for new parties or as independents. I'm a lot more comfortable with people doing so than others, and it'll be fun to see how many, if any, can stick around, especially where standing in their current seats. I noticed one of the MPs who stood as an Indy against Trudeau got in.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Alistair said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    #MeToo

    Main site down

    You'll have missed a plug for airport literature :smile:
    Byronic said:

    Soubry on TV lamenting abuse.

    Again, what does she actually expect? If you say you're going to cancel democracy, voters will get very very very angry. It's truly sad, and (for the delicate types on here) of course I regret this coarsening and brutalising of our discourse - but it is entirely predictable, and people like Soubry have stoked it, and made it worse.

    First, nobody is saying they are "going to cancel democracy". I appreciate you are interpreting having another referendum as cancelling democracy but it simply isn't. At worst it could be classed as ignoring the voters wishes, although if voters wish it that much a binding 2nd ref would allow those wishes to be fulfilled.

    Secondly, most voters are are not "very very very angry". Only a very few are outraged. No one has any excuse for making voilent threats.
    No. Soubry has gone beyond calling for another referendum, she has several times called for Revoke. That is the very definition of cancelling democracy. It literally means overturning a vote you don't like.

    Here she is, doing it again

    https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/celebrities-politicians-speak-at-anti-brexit-rally-anna-soubry-claims-uk-must-revoke-article-50/
    Over a hundred tory MPs voted against the Scotland Act to establish the Scottish Parliament. After a referendum that was won by a margin of 49 percentage points.

    Were they cancelling democracy? Would they have been justifiable targets for very, very, very angry people?

    Many of them are still in parliament today.
    Let's switch this around. Imagine that you won the Scottish indy referendum. Imagine YES was victorious.

    Now imagine that a NO dominated Scottish parliament had, since that vote, apparently conspired to prevent independence being enacted, and that several prominent Scottish Tories had demanded that the YES vote be simply annulled, and revoked, so that Scotland could return to its place in the UK.

    What do you think would happen to those bold Scots Tories calling for revocation of the victorious YES vote?

    Well, exactly.

    Next.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    Dr Foxy tells us he is very popular locally, which I totally believe, but given the party will win the seat whoever they put up there why they cannot just ditch him I do not know.
  • kle4 said:

    I am liking these defectors standing for new parties or as independents. I'm a lot more comfortable with people doing so than others, and it'll be fun to see how many, if any, can stick around, especially where standing in their current seats. I noticed one of the MPs who stood as an Indy against Trudeau got in.

    I think a very small number of them might, but not Ms Sandbach. Still, kudos to her for trying.
  • Talking of amusing spin from political parties, if you want a good cynical laugh take a gander at the website of the Runnymede and Weybridge Conservatives. It's like something out of the Soviet Union under Stalin: every single mention of he-who-shall-not-be-named-but-who-until-last-month-was-their-distinguished-Tory-MP-and-Cabinet-minister has been ruthlessly airbrushed out of existence:

    https://www.runnymedeweybridgeconservatives.com/

    For my part, this is the acid test. Given the belated conversion of Boris to avoiding crashing out in chaos, I could consider voting Conservative again, especially since the LibDems are pretty dire. But there is no way I'll vote for a party which hasn't got room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke etc, and which indeed is waging some kind of vindictive vendetta against them, and for that matter against Amber Rudd who doesn't even want to stand again.

    Come off it, Hammond made his choice and has been no "Right Honourable Friend" to the government. Other rebels kept a bridge open to the party, he has set fire to his and has chosen he'd rather be in bed with the opposition. Why on earth would he be invited back?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Byronic said:

    The relentless Labour emphasis on the NHS not working well on QT. If this is all that Labour has they are in trouble. They are going to bore voters to death.

    Oooh, Labour guy being booed!

    If Labour are saying the same things as 2017 they need to be careful. Lots of people gave them the benefit of the doubt and voted for them then. Since then we have had

    - almost all Jewish Labour Mps have left
    - Being investigated for antisemtism
    - Corbyn has shown the leadership of a wet lettuce dealing with it
    - Incoherent Brexit policy - you can and regularly do get two senior figures saying different things on the same day
    - Blocked almost all options for Brexit - May deal was basically what they wanted but they wouldn’t vote for a bad Tory Brexit only a good Labour Brexit

    I’m sure there are lots of other things but it’s not as likely to give you a warm morally superior glow now
    Many things have changed, true, but it is still a leap to assume that the people who voted for them last time were giving them the benefit of the doubt. It might be a lot of them decided then that whatever those doubts the threat of a Tory majority meant they had to ignore those doubts. If that is the case, the same logic will apply.

    It might not be as effective, but depending on Farage it might not need to be quite as effective.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    Considering the Tory leadership contest consisted of amusing spliff and coke-taking stories, perhaps that is not the line* to take.

    * yes, line...
  • kle4 said:

    I am liking these defectors standing for new parties or as independents. I'm a lot more comfortable with people doing so than others, and it'll be fun to see how many, if any, can stick around, especially where standing in their current seats. I noticed one of the MPs who stood as an Indy against Trudeau got in.

    I think a very small number of them might, but not Ms Sandbach. Still, kudos to her for trying.
    Trying or ensuring she gets the pay off only defeated MPs get, its a shame we can't know who is legit and who isn't.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Just 31 minutes to go until we leave the EU. The air is thick with the potent scent of anticipation.
  • Come off it, Hammond made his choice and has been no "Right Honourable Friend" to the government. Other rebels kept a bridge open to the party, he has set fire to his and has chosen he'd rather be in bed with the opposition. Why on earth would he be invited back?

    In the hope of getting back some of the lost voters, whose support will be needed in the future once the loons have drifted off with cries of betrayal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Just 31 minutes to go until we leave the EU. The air is thick with the potent scent of anticipation.

    I'm afraid you missed it comrade - we leave on European time, 31 minutes ago!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    kle4 said:

    Just 31 minutes to go until we leave the EU. The air is thick with the potent scent of anticipation.

    I'm afraid you missed it comrade - we leave on European time, 31 minutes ago!
    Gosh we have already left!
  • Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    They consider an antisemite who while present did not lay wreaths for terrorists who murdered Jews at the Olympics, and did invite other terrorists to Parliament just days after MPs and their wives and aides were murdered, is suitable to be leader. If he can be leader, then what's a little bit of drugs and sex work to throw into the mix?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Come off it, Hammond made his choice and has been no "Right Honourable Friend" to the government. Other rebels kept a bridge open to the party, he has set fire to his and has chosen he'd rather be in bed with the opposition. Why on earth would he be invited back?

    In the hope of getting back some of the lost voters, whose support will be needed in the future once the loons have drifted off with cries of betrayal.
    In the latest polls, the Tories are on 41%. There aren't many voters to retrieve.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    kle4 said:

    Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    Dr Foxy tells us he is very popular locally, which I totally believe, but given the party will win the seat whoever they put up there why they cannot just ditch him I do not know.
    I think it will be down to the local party, but I think he is likely to stand down voluntarily.

    I have met him a few times, his pork-barrelling of Leicester West has been pretty extensive. Perhaps the most egregious was the large Merlyn Vaz Health and Social Care Centre, named for his mother.
  • Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    They consider an antisemite who while present did not lay wreaths for terrorists who murdered Jews at the Olympics, and did invite other terrorists to Parliament just days after MPs and their wives and aides were murdered, is suitable to be leader. If he can be leader, then what's a little bit of drugs and sex work to throw into the mix?
    Fair point!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    kle4 said:

    Just 31 minutes to go until we leave the EU. The air is thick with the potent scent of anticipation.

    I'm afraid you missed it comrade - we leave on European time, 31 minutes ago!
    Gosh we have already left!

    kle4 said:

    Just 31 minutes to go until we leave the EU. The air is thick with the potent scent of anticipation.

    I'm afraid you missed it comrade - we leave on European time, 31 minutes ago!
    Gosh we have already left!
    Didn’t you smell the sickly sweet aroma of jingoistic self harm as it was farted into the ether at 11pm?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Why on earth has Labour not yet chucked out Keith Vaz? Are they really of the view that someone suspended from the Commons for six months for offering to buy drugs for sex workers and failing to cooperate with an investigation is fit to be the party's candidate in Leicester East?

    They consider an antisemite who while present did not lay wreaths for terrorists who murdered Jews at the Olympics, and did invite other terrorists to Parliament just days after MPs and their wives and aides were murdered, is suitable to be leader. If he can be leader, then what's a little bit of drugs and sex work to throw into the mix?
    hahaha

    Bravo. Bravo.
This discussion has been closed.