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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came
So here we are and a third Brexit deadline is about to be missed in spite of Johnson firm assertions that we would be leaving tonight when he first became PM.
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So any event or news push on failing to Brexit I think was always going to be the same, regardless of GE expectations.
They didn’t happen? Fancy that.
Why would there be? Leavers expect the Tories to win GE and deliver Brexit. The Leavers that I know (and regularly argue with) are most content and very happy with Boris.
https://twitter.com/HistoryHit/status/715615546386022404?s=20
The polls aren't great for BXP. The Tories have a squeeze on them. So if the BXP field 600 candidates, spread their resources thinly, and do about as well as Veritas and get no MPs, Farage will look a dick and a loser (which he hates). He will though, have the pleasure of being a biggish fish in the pond, before the depressing votes.
Alternatively, he could focus on 20-30 Leaver seats, actually win a couple of MPs, and he won't look like an idiot and he can still claim to be a player going forward. BUT he won't be a star on stage interim.
The first approach also risks letting in a Corbyn minority govt, losing Brexit entirely in a 2nd ref, and then Farage will go from cult figure to hate figure amongst his supporters: a dire outcome for Nigel.
He has a lot of hard thinking to do. And what he decides could decide the fate of the nation.
No it didn`t - this is what behavioural economists want you to believe.
Economists knew a crash at some point was probable due to deregulation of financial markets - humans are greedy and self-interested - but it is unreasonable to expect economists to have forecasted the timing of the crash.
I just can't see how the Tories will get 40%+, given how unpopular Boris is and how divisive Brexit is, nor can I see how Labour will not get 30% with the tribal nature of the big two parties vote.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
Yes, and if he has any sense he`ll compete only a few constituencies where Tories have no chance.
My concern is that he has gone so far with BXP project - involving a lot of people - that he will feel reluctant to back-track.
Then anything goes.
Were you expecting me to see a picture of Rasputin’s pickled penis on here at half past seven on a Thursday night?
No, Mr Royale...
However, what I did see was....
Christmas lights in someone's front garden. On Halloween. FFS.
If its a Labour Leave constituency such as Cooper's or EdM's then its the former, if its a Conservative constituency then its the latter.
I've not met a behavioral economist, let alone been influenced by one.
I think it's entirely reasonable to expect economists to predict all sorts of things given their apparent wisdom expressed every day on the news.
Privately they will tell you that they don't have a clue currently. (Or that's so in my experience)
He would be loathed by most Leavers AND Remainers for the rest of his life.
But he's a vain man. The limelight will tempt. We shall see.
While clearly antisemitism decides your vote against Labour with no exceptions, for me if a Labour candidate has opposed antisemitism, then I would consider voting for them.
I will be voting LD in my constituency though.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Growing up, I barely ever experienced it. Now I hear anti-Semitic smears and narratives on a very regular basis. As mentioned on the last thread, we have to have armed guards in our temples, schools and community centres. Anywhere Jews visibly gather is a group is such a risk from bigots slaughtering us that we need protection. This makes us feel very scared. My kids are inevitably going to grow up being much more aware how they are seen as "different" than I am.
So I don't think you are deliberately minimizing Anti-Semitism. I think you, like most of the population, just don't get it. Us Jews increasingly feel like we are being pushed out of the mainstream, forced to live an existence where we hide our ancestry or live in a parallel society, being faced by a constant threat that non-Jews never notice. Every vote for Jeremy Corbyn makes most of us feel more insecure. If he became PM we would be very scared for what is next. I know several friends who have seriously discussed emigration options if he gets in.
Please don't feel judged for underestimating what we are going through. I know I am absent minded enough I probably would not notice if I wasn't Jewish. But just listen to us. Read up on what Jewish organizations are saying and take them seriously. Talk to your Jewish friends. Vote thinking of us.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
What is much more obvious is: the BXP splitting the Leave vote, Corbyn becomes PM, calls a 2nd referendum, and Brexit is cancelled.
Farage would be pilloried far and wide, by even his close supporters. It's a massive risk for him.
FPT
Your model for St Albans has LD 37,000, Con 22,000 Labour 0
I know there will be tactical voting, but is there a bug somewhere ?
EDIT Not sure the link works exactly, but the headline should say it all.
If he talks about concentrating on a small number of seats and not standing against the Tories in hundreds of them then it's just about avoiding humiliation.
(Obviously I know I can just look it up. So from PB perspective)
A piece of documentary making with few peers.
Thanks to Spudfish for the tip.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
93% of Jews oppose Corbyn:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/polls-despite-mixed-opinions-on-brexit-93-of-uk-jews-wont-vote-for-labour/
40% of Jews are seriously considering emigrating if Corbyn wins:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/if-corbyn-became-pm-almost-40-of-uk-jews-would-seriously-consider-leaving/
I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole. He also has two brown people in his top four. But if you feel differently, don't vote for Johnson either. Vote Lib Dem or Green or a local independent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYbRZmKsZsQ
Tomorrow's World review of the 1970s.
With big features on problems in transport investment and nuclear power construction and the neglect of investment in more mundane sectors.
Plus the proto internet of Prestel.
Please supply your own punchlines.
It's very obvious that this lot are streets ahead of the previous bunch wrt campaigning.
Should I?
It will become at least something of a science one day though, and the better observations and thoughts of the crowd (wise or like me) are important.
https://m.facebook.com/TheBresistance/posts/had-a-leaflet-off-the-brexit-party-make-a-gdpr-request-about-the-information-the/2310314172354730/
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
I think there will come a time when the year will have one event immediately following the previous.
We already have Halloween to Guy Fawkes to Remembrance to Black Friday to Christmas to New Year to Valentines to Mothers Day to Easter.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1189848235034185728?s=20
The Americans already do have more-or-less what you describe, which I gather is the reason they say "happy holidays" and not PC, or not just PC. Our bank holidays are concentrated in the spring, America's are now-ish.
But, more to the point, I think you shouldn't portray yourself as speaking for all of us who happen to be of Jewish descent - we have a right to decide differently about these things, and it plays into the hands of real anti-semites if any of us pretend that we all think the same way, just as self-appointed "community leaders" do their communities a disservice if they imply that they speak for the political opinions of thousands of people who happen to be of the same ethnic background. They don't, and nor do we.