According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
I assume you’re volunteering to take the hit and lose your house and job?
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
If we are to meet certain disaster eventually isnt it better that there is a different almost permanent state beforehand!?
Omnium said: "The Economists have been lost-in-space for ages anyway. So far as I can tell every model is basically 'under review'. Actual economic modelling that people believed in went by the wayside in 2008."
No it didn`t - this is what behavioural economists want you to believe.
Economists knew a crash at some point was probable due to deregulation of financial markets - humans are greedy and self-interested - but it is unreasonable to expect economists to have forecasted the timing of the crash.
Plenty of economists in 2006 were predicting a massive housing crash in America.
Omnium said: "The Economists have been lost-in-space for ages anyway. So far as I can tell every model is basically 'under review'. Actual economic modelling that people believed in went by the wayside in 2008."
No it didn`t - this is what behavioural economists want you to believe.
Economists knew a crash at some point was probable due to deregulation of financial markets - humans are greedy and self-interested - but it is unreasonable to expect economists to have forecasted the timing of the crash.
Plenty of economists in 2006 were predicting a massive housing crash in America.
Some certainly. I'm not sure many established economists did so, and if I was a young economist I'd chance my arm on pretty much anything.
I think there will come a time when the year will have one event immediately following the previous.
We already have Halloween to Guy Fawkes to Remembrance to Black Friday to Christmas to New Year to Valentines to Mothers Day to Easter.
Diwali then the rest, though it is Diwali, November the fifth and New Year which have fireworks.
The Americans already do have more-or-less what you describe, which I gather is the reason they say "happy holidays" and not PC, or not just PC. Our bank holidays are concentrated in the spring, America's are now-ish.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole.
I'm Jewish, though non-practising, and a former national executive member of Labour Friends of Israel. I think you are applying different criteria to the party leader you prefer. Corbyn absolutely hasn't vilified Jews (as a whole or in part) and your interpretation of the picaninnies comment is, well, generous to a fault.
But, more to the point, I think you shouldn't portray yourself as speaking for all of us who happen to be of Jewish descent - we have a right to decide differently about these things, and it plays into the hands of real anti-semites if any of us pretend that we all think the same way, just as self-appointed "community leaders" do their communities a disservice if they imply that they speak for the political opinions of thousands of people who happen to be of the same ethnic background. They don't, and nor do we.
I don't claim to speak for all Jews and try to caveat as much as possible for those ends ("many of us", "most Jews") etc. But the polls are very clear where the majority of Jewish people stand with regards Labour. 93% opposition for a demographic that historically voted Labour and 40% considering emigration speaks volumes.
As for criteria, no-one on the Tory side has done anything close to going to a remembrance service for a terrorist that slaughtered Jewish civilians in cold blood. And he knew it was wrong at the time, which is why he tried to come under the expense guidelines to avoid scrutiny. Then we have the repeated interventions from Corbyn's office into protecting those who have said and done anti-Semitic things, which is still going on.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
I assume you’re volunteering to take the hit and lose your house and job?
I'm already doing the living within my means and creating some wealth bit so I get a pass
During the 2008 to 2010 period I had to take more than my fair share of chances and I likely will again when the next recession comes.
Today's policy announcements by Jezza remind me why I voted for him in 2015.
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
Out of genuine interest what sort of things would you do if you were in power ?
Pretty much what Jezza was advocating today but with more radical environmental policies.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
If we are to meet certain disaster eventually isnt it better that there is a different almost permanent state beforehand!?
Not if it the state beforehand isn't permanent but the disaster is
I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole.
I'm Jewish, though non-practising, and a former national executive member of Labour Friends of Israel. I think you are applying different criteria to the party leader you prefer. Corbyn absolutely hasn't vilified Jews (as a whole or in part) and your interpretation of the picaninnies comment is, well, generous to a fault.
But, more to the point, I think you shouldn't portray yourself as speaking for all of us who happen to be of Jewish descent - we have a right to decide differently about these things, and it plays into the hands of real anti-semites if any of us pretend that we all think the same way, just as self-appointed "community leaders" do their communities a disservice if they imply that they speak for the political opinions of thousands of people who happen to be of the same ethnic background. They don't, and nor do we.
It's not close though, is it? 83% of Jews do think Corbyn is personally Antisemitic. A greater number believe Labour tolerates higher levels of Antisemitism than any other party. Even if Corbyn hasn't "vilified Jews as a whole", he has laid wreaths for those who planned their murders, honoured those who wish a genocide against them as friends, and hosted in Parliament those who believe their bread is baked with the blood of gentiles.
The unluckiest anti-racist in England, as he's known.
Today's policy announcements by Jezza remind me why I voted for him in 2015.
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
I think there will come a time when the year will have one event immediately following the previous.
We already have Halloween to Guy Fawkes to Remembrance to Black Friday to Christmas to New Year to Valentines to Mothers Day to Easter.
Diwali then the rest, though it is Diwali, November the fifth and New Year which have fireworks.
The Americans already do have more-or-less what you describe, which I gather is the reason they say "happy holidays" and not PC, or not just PC. Our bank holidays are concentrated in the spring, America's are now-ish.
For US Americans "the holidays" are from thanksgiving to new year. What we call holidays are vacation over there.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
Trump's criticism of the Bozza deal couldn't be more choreographed. Smart, though, as a few more outbursts against the deal from him and Labour can't use the Trump Brexit crap.
It's very obvious that this lot are streets ahead of the previous bunch wrt campaigning.
True , this is so staged re the deal . I expect we’ll have more manipulation as the campaign goes on .
Today's policy announcements by Jezza remind me why I voted for him in 2015.
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
I'm quite in favour of a four day week for four days pay but I'm rather afraid I'd end up doing five days work in four days for four days pay.
What is interesting about Thatcher's support for the single Market is that during the 1980s the UK tended to have a trade surplus and also had debt under control.
If the UK had continued that economic strategy the UK's relationship with the EU might have been very different.
O/T - Energy prices have fallen over the summer and I last fixed my energy in july 2020. Just done a check because heavy gas usage upcoming and the gas unit price from my current supplier is 17.5% less now. Daily standing charge slightly lower as well. So estimated savings of 500 quids for me over previous fix.
Today's policy announcements by Jezza remind me why I voted for him in 2015.
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
4.5 years, next election is May 2024 under FTPA.
Interesting point, thanks. If Boris had delayed the election until January the following GE wouldn't be until May 2025.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
No doubt us all moving to Mansfield or similar and renouncing fancy holidays is a key part of the plan.
Today's policy announcements by Jezza remind me why I voted for him in 2015.
Just a pity he doesn't have the leadership qualities to match the radical ideas.
It is a pity that we are going to do so badly, as the country could be so much better than it is going to be after 5 years of a Bozo majority government.
4.5 years, next election is May 2024 under FTPA.
If FTPA survives....
If he gets a big enough majority he may move it to a 10-15 year term like some of his nationalist leader chums.
I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole.
I'm Jewish, though non-practising, and a former national executive member of Labour Friends of Israel. I think you are applying different criteria to the party leader you prefer. Corbyn absolutely hasn't vilified Jews (as a whole or in part) and your interpretation of the picaninnies comment is, well, generous to a fault.
But, more to the point, I think you shouldn't portray yourself as speaking for all of us who happen to be of Jewish descent - we have a right to decide differently about these things, and it plays into the hands of real anti-semites if any of us pretend that we all think the same way, just as self-appointed "community leaders" do their communities a disservice if they imply that they speak for the political opinions of thousands of people who happen to be of the same ethnic background. They don't, and nor do we.
It's not close though, is it? 83% of Jews do think Corbyn is personally Antisemitic. A greater number believe Labour tolerates higher levels of Antisemitism than any other party. Even if Corbyn hasn't "vilified Jews as a whole", he has laid wreaths for those who planned their murders, honoured those who wish a genocide against them as friends, and hosted in Parliament those who believe their bread is baked with the blood of gentiles.
The unluckiest anti-racist in England, as he's known.
Your statement about who he laid Wreaths for is untrue.
Corbyn did indeed attend a wreath-lying ceremony in 2014 where victims of the 1985 Israeli airstrike against the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organisation in Tunis were remembered – an attack that had been condemned at the time by the UN and by Margaret Thatcher. The attack killed around 50 people, mostly Palestinians, and injured many more.
While wreaths may also have been laid at other graves, Corbyn did not participate in these ceremonies. Nor are any of the graves those of Munich perpetrators, who are mostly buried in Libya. None is buried in Tunis.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
I assume you’re volunteering to take the hit and lose your house and job?
He’ll be protected by his tinfoil hat and hair shirt.
I find the Picanninies comment to have been mocking the mindset of British officials visiting Africa rather than stating his own views. And he has apologised for it. The pillar box comments were crass but were describing the most misogynistic clothing. It was not vilifying Muslims as a whole.
I'm Jewish, though non-practising, and a former national executive member of Labour Friends of Israel. I think you are applying different criteria to the party leader you prefer. Corbyn absolutely hasn't vilified Jews (as a whole or in part) and your interpretation of the picaninnies comment is, well, generous to a fault.
But, more to the point, I think you shouldn't portray yourself as speaking for all of us who happen to be of Jewish descent - we have a right to decide differently about these things, and it plays into the hands of real anti-semites if any of us pretend that we all think the same way, just as self-appointed "community leaders" do their communities a disservice if they imply that they speak for the political opinions of thousands of people who happen to be of the same ethnic background. They don't, and nor do we.
I don't claim to speak for all Jews and try to caveat as much as possible for those ends ("many of us", "most Jews") etc. But the polls are very clear where the majority of Jewish people stand with regards Labour. 93% opposition for a demographic that historically voted Labour and 40% considering emigration speaks volumes.
As for criteria, no-one on the Tory side has done anything close to going to a remembrance service for a terrorist that slaughtered Jewish civilians in cold blood. And he knew it was wrong at the time, which is why he tried to come under the expense guidelines to avoid scrutiny. Then we have the repeated interventions from Corbyn's office into protecting those who have said and done anti-Semitic things, which is still going on.
And, of course, Cleverly used the old trope that Islamophobia is not racist because Islam is not a race. So regardless of the picaninnies comment, a leading Conservative has taken a line that is usually only seen from the likes of the old BNP. That the Conservative in question is himself from a minority shows how low they have sunk.
Neither Labour or Conservatives come out of the diverse racism issues with any credit. That the Conservatives were prepared to use a minority spokesman to defend the indefensible seems as bad as Corbyn's actions (or lack of them in his stalling of investigations).
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
According to the article cited we have already lost 2.5% of growth over the last 42 months, losing a further 3.5% over the next 120 months seems quite a cautious prediction. No doubt we will see.
I don't expect a Brexit induced economic slump, just a slow grinding corrosive economic stagnation.
I'm curious as to where this 2.5% of extra growth would be.
Certainly not in manufacturing or anything else export oriented as the exchange rate would be less competitive.
I can't see construction being in any more than a boom than it has been and government services would be no different to what they have been.
So that leaves an even bigger consumption bubble - more spending on more imports.
And that together with the absence of the hundreds of billions of extra exports we've had in that period would have led to a monumental balance of payments crisis.
Of course pretty much all large western economies have struggled for growth in the last 18 months so I don't see why the UK would have done better than any of them as is apparently claimed.
Is the relevant article. Fig 2 is the graph in question, so read the surrounding text.
It seems to be rather vague on data and big on casual extrapolations plus I didn't see any mention of how exports have been boosted by the change in sterling value.
I really doubt the increased business investment the report bigs up would have happened - a look at bond yields shows that there is a general malaise in that area.
I suspect the brutal truth is that the western world is in for a long period of low growth.
I agree on stagnation across the West, but it will be worse here because of Brexit. Our main export markets will also be stagnant.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
I assume you’re volunteering to take the hit and lose your house and job?
I'm already doing the living within my means and creating some wealth bit so I get a pass
During the 2008 to 2010 period I had to take more than my fair share of chances and I likely will again when the next recession comes.
You have no mortgage then? Of course, you probably don’t, having earned your house in Mansfield brick by brick.
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
Why is living within our means so difficult these days?
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
If the Conservatives end up once again as the largest party but with no overall majority - a prospect currently priced at around evens - Boris's deal will surely be dead.
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
I think there will come a time when the year will have one event immediately following the previous.
We already have Halloween to Guy Fawkes to Remembrance to Black Friday to Christmas to New Year to Valentines to Mothers Day to Easter.
Diwali then the rest, though it is Diwali, November the fifth and New Year which have fireworks.
The Americans already do have more-or-less what you describe, which I gather is the reason they say "happy holidays" and not PC, or not just PC. Our bank holidays are concentrated in the spring, America's are now-ish.
Diwali was back on Sunday 27th.
A couple of days ago, yes, and given that it and bonfire night tend to get smeared out, in a good (or bad) year, you can get continuous fireworks for two or three weeks.
But this year, Diwali seemed more subdued than usual around here. Lots of fireworks in the sky but not setting the horizon ablaze.
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
At least credit the tweet you are copy pasta-ing...Rachael from Swindon might get annoyed otherwise.
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
That's interesting.
Taxi is weird but what’s wrong with claiming back a wreath? If you’re mayor, and you never do, it could easily cost you hundreds or thousands.
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
Why is living within our means so difficult these days?
We have expensive tastes, expecting that we are amongst the richest in the world ,an aging population, an above average but not exceptional education system and dont want the immigration needed to balance out the demographics or bring in the skills we are missing. Oh and we pissed a load of growth away searching for some unicorns.
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
Why is living within our means so difficult these days?
Because tax has been viewed as an evil to be reduced at every opportunity instead of the price we need to pay for living in a modern, civilised, free society with good facilities, infrastructure and public services.
Halloween -- passed three or four groups of trick-or-treaters on my walk to the fish and chip shop. All Eastern European, it seemed, so I'm not sure if this is the creeping Americanisation of our holidays or just that halloween is big in the home of Dracula.
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
Money won't do us any good if global warming accelerates. It's like saving on your bar bill on the Titanic.
While both main parties prattle on about the end of austerity, the national debt is now upwards of 1.8trillion and 84% of GDP. This despite a so called decade of Tory cuts which actually increased the pile by 600billion. Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word) You couldn't make it up ......
Why is living within our means so difficult these days?
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
We'll be fitter as well, due to us pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the shops.
If the Conservatives end up once again as the largest party but with no overall majority - a prospect currently priced at around evens - Boris's deal will surely be dead.
Or am I missing something?
Depends on the numbers. If Johnson still has, say, 310 MPs, then individual MPs can make all the difference. It would only need a handful of Labour rebels to stop any second referendum, assuming that the opposition parties could agree on a Prime Minister to replace Johnson with.
To decisively kill off Johnson's deal you have to have something implementable to replace it with. In a well hung Parliament you wouldn't have that, so Johnson's deal would remain alive, glowering in the corner, as the obvious quick way out of the mess.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
Your regular reminder that multi-millionaire Boris Johnson once claimed expenses of £16.50 for a Remembrance Day wreath. And he claimed expenses of £237 for a 7 mile taxi ride.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
That's interesting.
Taxi is weird but what’s wrong with claiming back a wreath? If you’re mayor, and you never do, it could easily cost you hundreds or thousands.
The explanation for the taxi is that he used them when Mayor to attend multiple functions over a short period of time, and kept the taxi waiting outside with the meter running. So there were quite a lot of claims for taxis >£100, and a total claim for taxis of £4,689 which is a hell of a lot for a year.
Playing devil's advocate you can argue that it's the sort of travel that's hard to do on public transport, if not impossible on a tight timetable, and the taxi bill is a lot less than, say, an official car with a driver would have been. But reportedly it was a lot more than claimed by his predecessor as Mayor and is the sort of thing he would have criticised a political opponent for were the roles reversed.
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
It's genuine far left rhetoric. Quite frightening that they are so open about this sort of thinking now.
Presumably someone with £999 million is also bad? So where do the Labour party draw the line for the goodies and baddies? Who decides?
Yes that’s the one where he bangs on about his friend Boris Johnson. Not sure the criticising the deal thing is likely to have the impact you think it will.
If the Conservatives end up once again as the largest party but with no overall majority - a prospect currently priced at around evens - Boris's deal will surely be dead.
Or am I missing something?
You are missing about fifty seats, according to the latest zeitgeist
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
We'll be fitter as well, due to us pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the shops.
Oh I'm sure they'll outlaw cash. That will be one way they'll try to prevent money from leaving the country.
If the Conservatives end up once again as the largest party but with no overall majority - a prospect currently priced at around evens - Boris's deal will surely be dead.
Or am I missing something?
Depends on the numbers. If Johnson still has, say, 310 MPs, then individual MPs can make all the difference. It would only need a handful of Labour rebels to stop any second referendum, assuming that the opposition parties could agree on a Prime Minister to replace Johnson with.
To decisively kill off Johnson's deal you have to have something implementable to replace it with. In a well hung Parliament you wouldn't have that, so Johnson's deal would remain alive, glowering in the corner, as the obvious quick way out of the mess.
But only as much 'alive' as May's deal remains today.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
We'll be fitter as well, due to us pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the shops.
Oh I'm sure they'll outlaw cash. That will be one way they'll try to prevent money from leaving the country.
Cash is utterly pointless anyway, we should get rid of it. It is the meta definition of a waste of money!
If the Conservatives end up once again as the largest party but with no overall majority - a prospect currently priced at around evens - Boris's deal will surely be dead.
Or am I missing something?
You are missing about fifty seats, according to the latest zeitgeist
That was the point of my 'If' at the start of the post. I fully get that a Tory majority looks likely as at today but frankly anything could happen in the next six weeks.
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
We'll be fitter as well, due to us pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the shops.
Oh I'm sure they'll outlaw cash. That will be one way they'll try to prevent money from leaving the country.
Cash is utterly pointless anyway, we should get rid of it. It is the meta definition of a waste of money!
Agreed, if anyone wants to get theirs recycled pm me and ill come and collect it.
Yes that’s the one where he bangs on about his friend Boris Johnson. Not sure the criticising the deal thing is likely to have the impact you think it will.
You are right that an endorsement from Trump doesn’t have quite the cachet of his predecessor, and Corbyn won’t mind what Trump said about him at all. There are some Trump fans in the UK, but I suspect his approval figures would be even worse than any mainstream UK politician.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
It's genuine far left rhetoric. Quite frightening that they are so open about this sort of thinking now.
Presumably someone with £999 million is also bad? So where do the Labour party draw the line for the goodies and baddies? Who decides?
It's the road to totaltarianism.
It's simply nonsense. It's not the wealth that is the issue, it's what people do with it, and how much of it the government gets to spend on society's wider needs.
A billionaire who does useful things, and pays a lot of tax, is surely much better for the country than someone half as wealthy who does a lot of bad things and pays little tax. And of course such arguments apply at all other levels of wealth.
So it's not having rich people that's the problem — even if there was an extreme level of inequality — but where money is privately spent, and how much ends up in government coffers.
Fixing taxation and creating appropriate incentives for spending would do far more good than simply trying to rid the UK of the rich.
Lloyd Russell-Moyle - 'I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire'
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
Give me 10,000 more UK billionaires.
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
We'll all be billionaires under the inflation plans of John McDonnell.
We'll be fitter as well, due to us pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the shops.
Oh I'm sure they'll outlaw cash. That will be one way they'll try to prevent money from leaving the country.
Cash is utterly pointless anyway, we should get rid of it. It is the meta definition of a waste of money!
Agreed, if anyone wants to get theirs recycled pm me and ill come and collect it.
£70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.
lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.
In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.
Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.
The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.
All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.
What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
Sigh...
1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S. 2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use? 3) Why is python thriving and R not? 4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression? 5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression? 6) name a modelling package used in financial departments 7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments 8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department 9) how would you prevent overfitting? 10) describe forward and backward selection 11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events? 12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event? 13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event? 14) what is the distribution of bus times?
£70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.
lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.
In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.
Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.
The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.
All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.
What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
Sigh...
1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S. 2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use? 3) Why is python thriving and R not? 4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression? 5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression? 6) name a modelling package used in financial departments 7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments 8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department 9) how would you prevent overfitting? 10) describe forward and backward selection 11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
But the hospitality sector will also have that day off won’t they? Likewise the trains and buses.
£70 billion per year by 2029, I believe there would be a compounding effect of diminished growth, so probably only a few tens of billions of quid per year initially.
lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.
In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.
Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.
The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.
All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.
What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
Sigh...
1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S. 2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use? 3) Why is python thriving and R not? 4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression? 5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression? 6) name a modelling package used in financial departments 7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments 8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department 9) how would you prevent overfitting? 10) describe forward and backward selection 11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
At Church, obviously.
I probably wasn’t clear in my OP. My follow up should explain it better (I hope!)
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
But the hospitality sector will also have that day off won’t they? Likewise the trains and buses.
Er no. Do they already have weekends off? No. They would simply have an extra chosen day off a week, as now but with one extra day.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
But the hospitality sector will also have that day off won’t they? Likewise the trains and buses.
Should be fine when all work is being done by robots
Omnium said: "The Economists have been lost-in-space for ages anyway. So far as I can tell every model is basically 'under review'. Actual economic modelling that people believed in went by the wayside in 2008."
No it didn`t - this is what behavioural economists want you to believe.
Economists knew a crash at some point was probable due to deregulation of financial markets - humans are greedy and self-interested - but it is unreasonable to expect economists to have forecasted the timing of the crash.
Plenty of economists in 2006 were predicting a massive housing crash in America.
Omnium said: "The Economists have been lost-in-space for ages anyway. So far as I can tell every model is basically 'under review'. Actual economic modelling that people believed in went by the wayside in 2008."
No it didn`t - this is what behavioural economists want you to believe.
Economists knew a crash at some point was probable due to deregulation of financial markets - humans are greedy and self-interested - but it is unreasonable to expect economists to have forecasted the timing of the crash.
Plenty of economists in 2006 were predicting a massive housing crash in America.
Some certainly. I'm not sure many established economists did so, and if I was a young economist I'd chance my arm on pretty much anything.
It must have been a fair number of fairly mainstream ones as I was confidentially telling my American office mate that his bullishness about the American economy was misplaced as the numbers were soft and based on a huge housing bubble that was showing signs of being at its peak and ready to pop.
I'm not big into economic forecasts so it must have been fairly mainstream as a thought by then for me to get it.
Certainly criticism of the rating of CDOs was prevalent in 2006 and the problems that would bring.
I think the UK's debt fueled consumption economic model is certain to lead to disaster and that we need a system shock and alternative thinking to shift it to something more sustainable.
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
The pillar of the EU economic model, the Single Market, had its greatest enthusiast in Margaret Thatcher but that was pre-1989 and all that has flowed from that seminal event.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
With the four day week as with so many things we are asking the wrong questions.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
There is so much time wasted in business that the four-day week makes sense. More energy for employees; fewer pointless meetings; clearer focus; enhanced productivity.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
I'm confused. What about Sunday?
Not a ‘whole day away’, used for travelling home and therefore nothing like as revenue-friendly for the hospitality sector. That wouldn’t change under a four day week. However you would get two ‘whole days away’ (Fri and Sat) vs just one now.
But the hospitality sector will also have that day off won’t they? Likewise the trains and buses.
I assume it must be a spoof: not even the Lib Dems would do this would they?
It is aggressive sure, but what actually is so wrong about it? They are making the point that only the LDs can challenge which is what the numbers suggest. If Labour want to pay for a similar question to be asked they can but I doubt the numbers would be there for them.
I have a bigger issue with the newspapers and even BBC using biased and misleading questions for media reporting than politicians or companies advertising.
I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.
lol. £70bn per year by 2029 means £700bn a year total, which is a third of our entire economy.
In other words, Brexit is going to be significantly worse than the First World War.
Its not a reduction, it’s forgone growth (the country will have a lower GDP than it otherwise might). Part of the effect is that we won’t grow as much if there are fewer immigrants and the population is smaller.
I know. It's voodoo statistics for silly people. Idiots think it means actual loss to the economy: negative growth. Not opportunity cost.
Even on the basis you describe, it's nonsense. It does not factor in what the UK might do to boost growth in the face of this, because that cannot be predicted or determined. So it's almost entirely useless, just like the Project Fear bollocks which predicted an immediate recession after the Brexit vote, but got it wholly wrong because the Treasury and the BoE got proactive to prevent a recession.
The Project Fear boffins hadn't factored that in. Genius.
All these stats from both sides are gibberish. The post Brexit future is essentially unknowable.
What would an international male model know about macro economic forecasting? What would a writer of airport novels know about it either, come to that?
I do male ECONOMIC modelling.
Sigh...
1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S. 2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use? 3) Why is python thriving and R not? 4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression? 5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression? 6) name a modelling package used in financial departments 7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments 8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department 9) how would you prevent overfitting? 10) describe forward and backward selection 11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
(I am on a train. I hate trains)
Can anybody enter this quiz?
Indeed. All my answers (yes, they are real questions!) are from memory and may be wrong or out of date, so if anybody who knows what they are talking about ( @rcs1000 does this professionally iirc) answers them I might get my arse smacked, but they are real questions that have cropped up over the years.
I suspect the arguments against moving from a six day week to a five and a half day week, and then to a five day week, were similar if not the same as moving from a five day week to a four. Spurious. Thin. There is nothing in the laws of physics that says Friday has to be a working day.
There does have to be a point beyond which the standard working week cannot be reduced though. I just don't know where that point is.
Comments
Whilst a Remain win would have locked in that economic model almost permanently.
I don't disagree and I fear Johnson will start the whole consumption-driven debt cycle moving again with this ludicrous spending commitments and tax cuts.
I quite like the idea of taxing cars based on how many miles are driven rather than on the cost of fuel but with public transport in London and other cities close to capacity (if not well beyond), throwing large numbers of people off the roads and onto overcrowded trains and buses probably isn't the answer either.
Many on here derided the four-day-working week idea but it touches on important issues relating to sustainability, work-life balance and the long term viability of a work life pattern based on suburbs and commuting.
As for criteria, no-one on the Tory side has done anything close to going to a remembrance service for a terrorist that slaughtered Jewish civilians in cold blood. And he knew it was wrong at the time, which is why he tried to come under the expense guidelines to avoid scrutiny. Then we have the repeated interventions from Corbyn's office into protecting those who have said and done anti-Semitic things, which is still going on.
During the 2008 to 2010 period I had to take more than my fair share of chances and I likely will again when the next recession comes.
Eco-socialism, basically.
The unluckiest anti-racist in England, as he's known.
What we call holidays are vacation over there.
Should we ban five day weeks (or six or seven day weeks)? Not at all.
Should the government work to help those business and employees who prefer doing a four day week? Are there things the government can help with to achieve this? Absolutely yes to both those questions.
What is interesting about Thatcher's support for the single Market is that during the 1980s the UK tended to have a trade surplus and also had debt under control.
If the UK had continued that economic strategy the UK's relationship with the EU might have been very different.
Maybe a case of premature BJ election?
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/general-election-2019-scottish-tories-referendum-free-period-voters-823152
Corbyn did indeed attend a wreath-lying ceremony in 2014 where victims of the 1985 Israeli airstrike against the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organisation in Tunis were remembered – an attack that had been condemned at the time by the UN and by Margaret Thatcher. The attack killed around 50 people, mostly Palestinians, and injured many more.
While wreaths may also have been laid at other graves, Corbyn did not participate in these ceremonies. Nor are any of the graves those of Munich perpetrators, who are mostly buried in Libya. None is buried in Tunis.
Neither Labour or Conservatives come out of the diverse racism issues with any credit. That the Conservatives were prepared to use a minority spokesman to defend the indefensible seems as bad as Corbyn's actions (or lack of them in his stalling of investigations).
These people are just mental. If elon musk said i want to relocate to the UK, build a new gigafactory etc etc etc, these morons would be no, we dont believe we should have people like you.
That’s 7 miles in a taxi for the price of a weekend break in Europe.
Now we have grandad planning to spend an enormous wad on ruinous policies that will transform the UK into the next Venezuela. All 3 parties want to commit the country to Green suicide with loony Net Zero targets and we are supposed to thank our lucky stars that the good times are a coming (And i never even mentioned the B word)
You couldn't make it up ......
And I'll give you the NHS you really want.
Or am I missing something?
But this year, Diwali seemed more subdued than usual around here. Lots of fireworks in the sky but not setting the horizon ablaze.
LBC
Boris Trumpton.
It’s happening!
https://twitter.com/jackseale/status/1189801954710577152
To decisively kill off Johnson's deal you have to have something implementable to replace it with. In a well hung Parliament you wouldn't have that, so Johnson's deal would remain alive, glowering in the corner, as the obvious quick way out of the mess.
The leisure sector would also benefit from longer weekends - doubling customers’ ‘whole days away’ from one (Saturday only) to two (Friday and Saturday).
Playing devil's advocate you can argue that it's the sort of travel that's hard to do on public transport, if not impossible on a tight timetable, and the taxi bill is a lot less than, say, an official car with a driver would have been. But reportedly it was a lot more than claimed by his predecessor as Mayor and is the sort of thing he would have criticised a political opponent for were the roles reversed.
Presumably someone with £999 million is also bad? So where do the Labour party draw the line for the goodies and baddies? Who decides?
It's the road to totaltarianism.
That was the point of my 'If' at the start of the post. I fully get that a Tory majority looks likely as at today but frankly anything could happen in the next six weeks.
Edit: Doh! just realised that anyone else experiencing such issues is not going to see my question to be able to respond! 😱
A billionaire who does useful things, and pays a lot of tax, is surely much better for the country than someone half as wealthy who does a lot of bad things and pays little tax. And of course such arguments apply at all other levels of wealth.
So it's not having rich people that's the problem — even if there was an extreme level of inequality — but where money is privately spent, and how much ends up in government coffers.
Fixing taxation and creating appropriate incentives for spending would do far more good than simply trying to rid the UK of the rich.
1) name four popular statistical software packages beginning with S.
2) if you are building a model in python, what technique would you be most likely to use?
3) Why is python thriving and R not?
4) when is a generalised linear model preferable to linear regression?
5) what is the difference between linear and logistic regression?
6) name a modelling package used in financial departments
7) name a modelling package used in actuarial departments
8) name a modelling package used in a statistical department
9) how would you prevent overfitting?
10) describe forward and backward selection
11) why is item response theory preferable to classic test theory when measuring opinions about extreme events?
12) what distribution would you use to model the frequency of an event?
13) what distribution would you use to model the severity of an event?
14) what is the distribution of bus times?
(I am on a train. I hate trains)
Thanks that's a relief in a way - probably nothing to do with my laptop then
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1189184917860544519?s=19
For recent arrivals on PB, SeanT writes unconvincing fiction.
I'm not big into economic forecasts so it must have been fairly mainstream as a thought by then for me to get it.
Certainly criticism of the rating of CDOs was prevalent in 2006 and the problems that would bring.
I have a bigger issue with the newspapers and even BBC using biased and misleading questions for media reporting than politicians or companies advertising.