Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposi

13567

Comments

  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Prediction, Corbyn will win the first debate - the two after that will be a wash. Everyone will be talking about how well he is doing etc..

    Then the exit poll will come in.

    Corbyn is guaranteed to win the first debate, expectations are so low
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,916

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    I'm certain that if the waitress charges someone for something twice, she would not be allowed to take the extra money home. It is clearly an unfair practice from the employer, and one which to my mind does not fit with an "excellent local restaurant".

    I'm sure the overall service improves if the staff don't feel that the management is 'looking over their shoulder' all the time.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,125
    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    I think she should be looking for another job but congratulations on your honesty. It is doubtful such a deduction is permitted in law (although the law is a rather feeble thing in this area in practice).
    It’s very harsh but with an express provision in an employment contract, or written consent otherwise, a deduction of up to 10% per pay packet (so the restaurant can recover it all but not necessarily all at once) can be a lawful deduction from the wages of waiting staff if their customer doesn’t pay. It’s the same provision that allows shopkeepers to recover till shortages. Coincidentally I’m dealing with a case involving a deduction for an £800 “dine and dash” at the moment.
    Thanks for that Mr S. Although many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies I wasn't aware that I could recover till shortages. I only recall having one case where there was malice and I managed to deal with that in another fashion.
    I've eaten in restaurants where it would have been only too easy to 'dine and dash', though. It's amazing how slow waiting staff can be with bills sometimes.
  • Options

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    I’m not doubting your prediction, but did the Tories really take any seats off anyone in ‘97?

    Just for clarity I am not expecting a result like 1997 this time for either side.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211

    Tabman said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT:

    Lib Dems not contesting Beaconsfield.

    Wonder how much of this we will see?

    The lib dems have to be careful here. Don't stand down against too many labour MPs, just because they are strong remainers.

    Wouldn't want to frighten the horses in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take off the tories.
    Surely this is just a special case supporting Dominic Grieve?
    Dunno I have read (I think on here? ) that a number of MPs are going to get a free run off the lib dems, including some labour. Nothing certain yet?? guess talks are ongoing.
    The LibDems prefer elections when there is only one candidate name on the ballot.
    Your hatred of the Lib Dems borders on the pathological. You are entitled to your views but tyou are so obsessed it renders your comments worthless.

    We have an electoral system that unfairly discriminates against any party other than Labour and the Tories. The minor parties are therefore driven to do what they can to mitigate that bias. If you honestly can't see that then I should give up if I were you.
    Nonsense. Does the electoral system discriminate against the SNP?

    The electoral system rewards success and penalises favour. It has no regard to which party is which.
    Nonsense. We have an electoral system that favours parties with geographically-concentrated support.
    The electoral system is what it is. There must be an element of geographical bias if you are to give voters a representative in Parliament
    That's not technically true. We used geography because in the old days it was the simplest way to segment the voting population. Why not do it by gender, profession, sexual orientation, home owning state, age, etc?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,853
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,463

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    That sounds like the 'Mike Ashley economy'.

    Soon to be the preferred model if we get both Boris Brexit AND Boris PM with big Tory majority.

    Can JC and his army of vibrant young campaigners save us from this grisly fate?
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Comparisons with 2017 are totally wrong IMO .

    In 2017 Labours fence sitting worked and then the Lib Dems were in a poor position .

    Labour has now managed to lose most of its Leave voters and annoyed a large amount of its Remainers .

    Aswell as that Johnson isn’t going to make the same mistakes as May , he will splash the cash and not put anything in the manifesto that could unravel .

    The Lib Dems only got 8% at the last election and even then Labour still couldn’t get close in terms of seats .

  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    I've heard of examples of this several times over the years, so unless I'm informed otherwise I assume that it's legal and that most restaurants do it.

    I'm not sure what happens when a customer leaves without paying the bill (which happens shamefully frequently) but hopefully that is not charged to the server also.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    philiph said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:


    Snip

    "But you know that (you're just not admitting it)."

    I voted for AV in 2011. I am perfectly well aware of the drawbacks of FPTP.

    In which case you'll also know that AV is not a proportional voting system, and will therefore cease the pompous comments about tactical voting being "false and hypocritical".
    I am pointing out that when given an opportunity to change the electoral system (to one that the LibDems advocated), I chose to vote for it.

    It is not just tactical voting. The LibDems are trying to get other parties to stand down. That is corrupt.

    If people want to vote tactically, that is up to them. I don't like it, because I want to be given positive reasons to vote for a party.
    I think that the great advantage of democracy over other forms of government is the ability to get rid of bad governments without needing a revolution, so I nearly always vote against the party I least like (or tactically if you prefer). It is one of the reasons I am not happy with the current Labour Party: if they had a half-way competent leader (either Milliband, or Ed Balls spring to mind) they I could vote to get rid of the idiot of an MP I currently have rather than having to support him to prevent the disaster of Corbyn getting into Number 10.
    I personally think that is a rather negative view of voting.

    Also, I don't agree that Corbyn getting in Number 10 will be a disaster.

    Or rather, it will be chaos, but we have survived far worse (e.g. Blair winning after the lies of the Iraq war).
    You can't really value Corbyn more than Blair. Blair didn't ruin our country, Corbyn would, and enjoy doing it.
    There is a pretty strong argument that Blair, Big Bad Burnley Al, Gordon Brown, D McBride and Mandelson were key to the process of decline of respect of politics, good journalism and excessive spin / media management, which could well be at the core of our current descent into less attractive politics.
    I am no fan of Blair, nor the others you mention but I don't wholly subscribe to the supposed sins you place at their doors. I think, so far as it goes, any decline reflects attitudes in Society as a whole. Politics seems perfectly at home in today's world but I don't think it has been the trail blazer. The "Good Old Days" more often than not, weren't.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,934
    I think we should wait to see the popularity of Corbyn's new egalitarian policies before we pass judgement on this poll. Banning public schoolboys from public office will surely strike a chord particularly when voters are reminded that the disaster of the last three years can be laid squarely at the feet of two Old Etonians.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kinabalu said:

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    That sounds like the 'Mike Ashley economy'.

    Soon to be the preferred model if we get both Boris Brexit AND Boris PM with big Tory majority.

    Can JC and his army of vibrant young campaigners save us from this grisly fate?
    Project fear is underway, I see.

    As a strategy it is a bit ropey.
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT:

    Lib Dems not contesting Beaconsfield.

    Wonder how much of this we will see?

    The lib dems have to be careful here. Don't stand down against too many labour MPs, just because they are strong remainers.

    Wouldn't want to frighten the horses in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take off the tories.
    Surely this is just a special case supporting Dominic Grieve?
    Dunno I have read (I think on here? ) that a number of MPs are going to get a free run off the lib dems, including some labour. Nothing certain yet?? guess talks are ongoing.
    The LibDems prefer elections when there is only one candidate name on the ballot.
    Your hatred of the Lib Dems borders on the pathological. You are entitled to your views but tyou are so obsessed it renders your comments worthless.

    We have an electoral system that unfairly discriminates against any party other than Labour and the Tories. The minor parties are therefore driven to do what they can to mitigate that bias. If you honestly can't see that then I should give up if I were you.
    Nonsense. Does the electoral system discriminate against the SNP?

    The electoral system rewards success and penalises favour. It has no regard to which party is which.
    The electoral system should broadly reflect how people voted. That should be its primary purpose and it fails to deliver that at every election. It has even managed, on occasion, to produce a government that didn't even win most votes.

    The SNP only got traction once a PR system was brought in for the Scottish Parliament. They could then use that leverage to gain Westminster seats.

    If our Westminster election system fairly represents voters opinions why are there such massive discrepancies between the percentage of votes a party can get and the percentage of seats it wins? Why is it that only when we have a fair PR election as we did in May for the EU that neither of the old duopoly don't even make the top two.

    By all means try to justify our Westminster voting system on other grounds but no sane individual could claim it adequately represents how people voted. It fails on that count at every single election.
    Worse - it drives voting behaviour because it fails to represent how people *want* to vote. In other words, it encourages Vote X to stop Y, which inflates both X and Y.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    I think she should consider a change of career.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris not hiding behind the sofa unlike Mrs May. ;)
    He's scared of debating Jo Swinson.
    What's to debate? She's a posturing idiot.
    No, I think that would be whoever wrote the post I'm replying to...
    can you not read?
    I'm assuming your handle is a pseudonym, but if that's your real name, I both apologise and sympathise.
    Apologies and sympathy entirely unnecessary
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,853
    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    nunu2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Which would mean lower drug prices? Access doesn't mean much
    It would mean higher drug prices.

    In the US, federal agencies are not allowed by law to negotiate drug prices.
    In the UK, NICE uses the NHS clout to negotiate down drug prices.
    The US want that removed and a move to the US system.
    NICE does nothing of the sort

    They have an explicit value based pricing model

    They have no problem approving high prices provided that the science justifies it

    It is then up to the various NHS bodies to determine whether they will reimburse that drug
    From the horses mouth

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/2018/11/nhs-set-to-save-record-300-million-on-the-nhss-highest-drug-spend/
    It is illegal in the US for government agencies to negotiate drug prices.
    Not true, according to Bernie....

    Medicare pays far more for drugs than government programs that negotiate. Under current law, the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is prohibited from negotiating lower drug prices on behalf of Medicare Part D beneficiaries. In contrast, other government programs, like Medicaid and VA, are allowed to negotiate. As a result, Medicare Part D pays on average 73% more than Medicaid and 80% more than VA for brand name drugs. The federal government could save between $15.2 and $16 billion a year if Medicare Part D paid the same prices as Medicaid or VA.

    https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/final_-medicare-drug-price-negotiation-act-of-2019---summary?id=FE53441E-C3BD-4141-AE91-D9FC402BE9F0&download=1&inline=file

    Who to believe?
  • Options
    nunu2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Prediction, Corbyn will win the first debate - the two after that will be a wash. Everyone will be talking about how well he is doing etc..

    Then the exit poll will come in.

    Corbyn is guaranteed to win the first debate, expectations are so low
    Disagree. There's a complete unknown variable in the mix on that one.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Article explaining why human beings believe in conspiracy theories.

    https://quillette.com/2019/10/31/the-danger-is-real-why-were-all-wired-for-constructive-conspiracism/
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Article explaining why human beings believe in conspiracy theories.

    https://quillette.com/2019/10/31/the-danger-is-real-why-were-all-wired-for-constructive-conspiracism/

    One of my favourite recent research papers was the study of actual 'conspiracies' that got revealed and the relationship between number of people involved and how long it took for them to be revealed.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,125
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally O/t fellow Pb-ers.
    But!
    Wife and I went out for lunch today, at an excellent local restuarant. (One can do then when old and retired!) Very pleasant English red wine taster and an excellent meal. However, when the bill came it was considerably less than we were expecting, so we queried. Turned out the very pleasant waitress had left our mains, some £40 in all, off the bill. We asked what would have happened if we'd just paid and left and she said that, when discovered, the price of the meals would have been deducted from her pay!
    What do you think?

    I think she should consider a change of career.
    TBH I suspect she might be a student. Eldest Granddaughter spent pretty well every Saturday during her time at Uni waitressing. Thought it was a dreadful waste of Uni Saturday nights, but she said she needed the money for her rent.
    No, Grandpa couldn't have covered it. Anyway I've six more grandchildren, and once for one, then.....
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT:

    Lib Dems not contesting Beaconsfield.

    Wonder how much of this we will see?

    The lib dems have to be careful here. Don't stand down against too many labour MPs, just because they are strong remainers.

    Wouldn't want to frighten the horses in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take off the tories.
    Surely this is just a special case supporting Dominic Grieve?
    Dunno I have read (I think on here? ) that a number of MPs are going to get a free run off the lib dems, including some labour. Nothing certain yet?? guess talks are ongoing.
    The LibDems prefer elections when there is only one candidate name on the ballot.
    Your hatred of the Lib Dems borders on the pathological. You are entitled to your views but tyou are so obsessed it renders your comments worthless.

    We have an electoral system that unfairly discriminates against any party other than Labour and the Tories. The minor parties are therefore driven to do what they can to mitigate that bias. If you honestly can't see that then I should give up if I were you.
    Nonsense. Does the electoral system discriminate against the SNP?

    The electoral system rewards success and penalises favour. It has no regard to which party is which.
    Nonsense. We have an electoral system that favours parties with geographically-concentrated support.
    The electoral system is what it is. There must be an element of geographical bias if you are to give voters a representative in Parliament
    That's not technically true. We used geography because in the old days it was the simplest way to segment the voting population. Why not do it by gender, profession, sexual orientation, home owning state, age, etc?
    I wasn't thinking about origins but expectations now. But isn't simplicity also a plus? I can't get past the complications of segmentation by gender.
  • Options
    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    I’m not doubting your prediction, but did the Tories really take any seats off anyone in ‘97?

    Just for clarity I am not expecting a result like 1997 this time for either side.
    Regained Christchurch from LDs who'd taken it at a by election.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,571
    No voter on the doorstep this time can possibly say 'they are all the same'.

    There has never been a starker choice in my lifetime.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,919

    I hope you are wrong ..... for the LibDems' sake.

    If this comes to pass, then it was a truly colossal error by the LibDems in giving in to an election.

    Will they be forgiven?

    This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation, I'm afraid.

    The paralysis wasn't hurting Johnson but helping him. The frustration, fatigue and sheer boredom hadn't seen the electorate turn on the Government but on Parliament and Johnson, for all he had a single simplistic message, had a clear simplistic message. Whether you wanted to leave the EU or not, he was going to make it happen, he was going to respect the result of the 2016 Referendum and he was going to allow us to stop talking about Brexit ad nauseam and ad infinitum and star talking about the other things that matter.

    It did the LDs no harm to be seen to be facilitating the election because said election represents the last throw of the REMAIN dice - if the LDs win a majority, we revoke otherwise there's a second referendum. The key becomes stopping a Conservative majority but that looks a hard ask at present.

    Landslide now or landslide later?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,571
    Everyone will be "very wealthy" under Labour says leading Corbynista:

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1189857638160293888
  • Options
    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,934
    stodge said:

    Brom said:


    Corbyn and the hard left will cling on like limpets with a narrow defeat as we saw in 2017. If voters really want rid of them then they're are going to have to abandon Labour this time. Short term pain may well bring long term gain if you're a moderate.

    I've said this before and I think one or two didn't or couldn't understand.

    This election is over as a contest - the question is now whether Johnson will win big or very big. A 1983-style landslide couldn't be ruled out from the poll numbers which would see something like a 140-150 majority.

    In 1983, Labour won 209 seats - that's the benchmark for this GE. Anything worse than that and I think that will be game over for Corbyn and the start of the return of Labour to the centre under an avowedly Corbyn-ite leader. I've already mentioned the comparison between Kinnock in 1983 and 1992 and I could easily see one of the younger Labour female (I think it has to be) MPs taking charge of the wreckage and over time moving the Party back to a more centrist position.

    For the non-Conservatives in despair looking at the poll numbers today I'd offer two thoughts - Boris won't have the campaign all his own way and we know when he gets into a tight spot he retreats into blustering and the domestic agenda has enough contradictions to drive a tank through so there's plenty of questions he may have to face.

    Second, nothing lasts forever - even if he wins big now, he will lose big someday sooner or later and the Conservatives will, with luck, face a defeat far greater than 1906, 1945 or 1997. That's how politics operates and one day the Conservatives will be about as popular as a South African rugby fan at a Twickenham pub on Sunday.
    Shouldn't you be betting rather than posting if you think the Tories will get a majority of 150? With your winnings you could even buy your way to a sunny European retirement with johnson and co nowhere to be seen.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    How many seats do u think tories will win in Wales?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,125
    BigIan said:

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    I’m not doubting your prediction, but did the Tories really take any seats off anyone in ‘97?

    Just for clarity I am not expecting a result like 1997 this time for either side.
    Regained Christchurch from LDs who'd taken it at a by election.
    The lady who was, for a short while the MP, subsequently married Alan Beith. Both now members of the HoL in their own right.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211

    stodge said:

    Brom said:


    Corbyn and the hard left will cling on like limpets with a narrow defeat as we saw in 2017. If voters really want rid of them then they're are going to have to abandon Labour this time. Short term pain may well bring long term gain if you're a moderate.

    I've said this before and I think one or two didn't or couldn't understand.

    This election is over as a contest - the question is now whether Johnson will win big or very big. A 1983-style landslide couldn't be ruled out from the poll numbers which would see something like a 140-150 majority.

    I hope you are wrong ..... for the LibDems' sake.

    If this comes to pass, then it was a truly colossal error by the LibDems in giving in to an election.

    Will they be forgiven?
    Why is that an error?

    I think the Libdems will be the biggest beneficiary of Brexit behind behind us.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,562
    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?
  • Options
    I might be thinking too much, but it could be in the mutual interest of the PM and Corbyn to insist on head to head debates, and then be “bitterly disappointed” when the inevitable legal challenge from the other parties sees them run into the ground....
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,547
    It's none of my business, but I have some misgivings about the LD-Green alliance too. I don't agree with their views on Europe (which admittedly is their defining characteristic at present) but there is much about them that I agree with. Whereas the Greens are a far left party with almost no policies that I'd support. I don't see that deprived of a Lib Dem to vote for voters are going to automatically swing behind the Green candidate.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    Polls are our of fashion now, it"s all about models now

    But which is best?
  • Options
    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    For reference, does any one have the leader ratings at the same point (at the start) of the last election? It would be interesting to see how the leaders are rating compared to last time.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,463
    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    We surely want something from the YouGov constituency model that nailed it in 2017.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,934

    Everyone will be "very wealthy" under Labour says leading Corbynista:

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1189857638160293888

    An interview that didn't do either of them much credit. Two cows munching in a field would have been more enlightening
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,271

    I might be thinking too much, but it could be in the mutual interest of the PM and Corbyn to insist on head to head debates, and then be “bitterly disappointed” when the inevitable legal challenge from the other parties sees them run into the ground....

    That won’t work if we have a poll in the next week or so with the Lib Dems in second place.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Extraordinary. Bercow has a Trump-sized ego and vanity.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,919
    Roger said:

    <
    Shouldn't you be betting rather than posting if you think the Tories will get a majority of 150? With your winnings you could even buy your way to a sunny European retirement with johnson and co nowhere to be seen.

    I've traded on a BUY of Conservative seats at 325. If the campaign gets "interesting" I may have to take a hit but at the moment I see very little downside and it's quite possible the Conservatives will win 390 seats or more.

    Mrs Stodge is quite keen on Almeria or Mijas for our retirement property but I'm quite keen on the 180-180 lifestyle so six months in Spain for the northern hemisphere winter and for summer I'm open to suggestions. I'd love to be able to afford to rent a holiday place in San Diego for the summer but that may be a bit ambitious.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,463

    No voter on the doorstep this time can possibly say 'they are all the same'.

    Yet they will.

    "They're all in it for themselves bla bla ..."
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    Populus. They wisely decided that traditional voting intention polls were useless after the debacle of GE2017 and haven't released one since.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    nunu2 said:

    felix said:

    nunu2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's difficult to believe Labour are doing quite as badly as that in Kensington.
    Especially with such a good local MP
    If sarcasm very good - if not WOW!!!
    Do u live there?
    I live in Se Spain - sunny today and a wintry 28 degrees centigrade :)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,927

    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    For reference, does any one have the leader ratings at the same point (at the start) of the last election? It would be interesting to see how the leaders are rating compared to last time.
    There's this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Leadership_approval_polling
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    It is amazing that the only people on here calling the Boris deal a surrender are the ones that are ardent Remainers that won't accept the vote. As far as I can tell the post-transition state it delivers is everything the right wants.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Not according to Bearnsteins model it doesn't!
  • Options

    I might be thinking too much, but it could be in the mutual interest of the PM and Corbyn to insist on head to head debates, and then be “bitterly disappointed” when the inevitable legal challenge from the other parties sees them run into the ground....

    There is an excellent section in one of the books on 2015 which details the negotiations for the debates. I'll see if I can dig it out.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    <
    Shouldn't you be betting rather than posting if you think the Tories will get a majority of 150? With your winnings you could even buy your way to a sunny European retirement with johnson and co nowhere to be seen.

    I've traded on a BUY of Conservative seats at 325. If the campaign gets "interesting" I may have to take a hit but at the moment I see very little downside and it's quite possible the Conservatives will win 390 seats or more.

    Mrs Stodge is quite keen on Almeria or Mijas for our retirement property but I'm quite keen on the 180-180 lifestyle so six months in Spain for the northern hemisphere winter and for summer I'm open to suggestions. I'd love to be able to afford to rent a holiday place in San Diego for the summer but that may be a bit ambitious.
    A good friend of mine spends the winter in St Lucia and really likes it there. She's a yachtie so she has plenty of opportunities to sail up and down the islands.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,125
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    <
    Shouldn't you be betting rather than posting if you think the Tories will get a majority of 150? With your winnings you could even buy your way to a sunny European retirement with johnson and co nowhere to be seen.

    I've traded on a BUY of Conservative seats at 325. If the campaign gets "interesting" I may have to take a hit but at the moment I see very little downside and it's quite possible the Conservatives will win 390 seats or more.

    Mrs Stodge is quite keen on Almeria or Mijas for our retirement property but I'm quite keen on the 180-180 lifestyle so six months in Spain for the northern hemisphere winter and for summer I'm open to suggestions. I'd love to be able to afford to rent a holiday place in San Diego for the summer but that may be a bit ambitious.
    Lot of opportunities in Thailand; it's by no means all sleazy. Temperature Nov-Dec-Jan is excellent.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Roger said:

    Everyone will be "very wealthy" under Labour says leading Corbynista:

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1189857638160293888

    An interview that didn't do either of them much credit. Two cows munching in a field would have been more enlightening
    Richard Burgon and Kay Burley for instance.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,463
    philiph said:

    Project fear is underway, I see.

    As a strategy it is a bit ropey.

    Out of the EU's worker consumer environment protection framework.

    PLUS

    Big majority for a Tory Party that has been been captured by the reactionary right.

    SPELLS

    ??

    Wake up!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Stodge, this sort of election makes me glad I don't do spread-betting.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    The LDs have a once in a lifetime opportunity to overtake Labour during this campaign. Will they take it?
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    I’m not doubting your prediction, but did the Tories really take any seats off anyone in ‘97?

    Just for clarity I am not expecting a result like 1997 this time for either side.
    Will Gower turn Blue again?
  • Options

    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    For reference, does any one have the leader ratings at the same point (at the start) of the last election? It would be interesting to see how the leaders are rating compared to last time.
    I've not got the Ipsos MORI figures to hand but from the final weekend before GE2017

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871432155330744320

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    stodge said:

    Brom said:


    Corbyn and the hard left will cling on like limpets with a narrow defeat as we saw in 2017. If voters really want rid of them then they're are going to have to abandon Labour this time. Short term pain may well bring long term gain if you're a moderate.

    I've said this before and I think one or two didn't or couldn't understand.

    This election is over as a contest - the question is now whether Johnson will win big or very big. A 1983-style landslide couldn't be ruled out from the poll numbers which would see something like a 140-150 majority.

    In 1983, Labour won 209 seats - that's the benchmark for this GE. Anything worse than that and I think that will be game over for Corbyn and the start of the return of Labour to the centre under an avowedly Corbyn-ite leader. I've already mentioned the comparison between Kinnock in 1983 and 1992 and I could easily see one of the younger Labour female (I think it has to be) MPs taking charge of the wreckage and over time moving the Party back to a more centrist position.

    For the non-Conservatives in despair looking at the poll numbers today I'd offer two thoughts - Boris won't have the campaign all his own way and we know when he gets into a tight spot he retreats into blustering and the domestic agenda has enough contradictions to drive a tank through so there's plenty of questions he may have to face.

    Second, nothing lasts forever - even if he wins big now, he will lose big someday sooner or later and the Conservatives will, with luck, face a defeat far greater than 1906, 1945 or 1997. That's how politics operates and one day the Conservatives will be about as popular as a South African rugby fan at a Twickenham pub on Sunday.
    Although you have a point, you only have to look back at the several similar posts about May's chances before the last election to know that the fat lady has not yet sung.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    AndyJS said: "Richard Burgon and Kay Burley for instance."

    Burgon is puzzling - according to Wiki he went to Cambridge and trained as a solicitor.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210
    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    AndyJS said: "Richard Burgon and Kay Burley for instance."

    Burgon is puzzling - according to Wiki he went to Cambridge and trained as a solicitor.

    Went to Cambridge: like Abbot you mean?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    It used to be Angus Reid at one time.
  • Options

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    What will happen in schools?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210

    Scott_P said:
    I think this is a big mistake. He has his support united. If Corbyn can unite the not Tory/not Leave votes then we risk a 2017 result.

    I don't understand why Johnson wants Corbyn to get more airtime than Swinson.
    He's easier on the eye?
    Ungallant much?

    I bet you are a real hit with the ladies.

    Twat.
  • Options
    PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT:

    Lib Dems not contesting Beaconsfield.

    Wonder how much of this we will see?

    The lib dems have to be careful here. Don't stand down against too many labour MPs, just because they are strong remainers.

    Wouldn't want to frighten the horses in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take off the tories.
    Surely this is just a special case supporting Dominic Grieve?
    Dunno I have read (I think on here? ) that a number of MPs are going to get a free run off the lib dems, including some labour. Nothing certain yet?? guess talks are ongoing.
    The LibDems prefer elections when there is only one candidate name on the ballot.
    Your hatred of the Lib Dems borders on the pathological. You are entitled to your views but tyou are so obsessed it renders your comments worthless.

    We have an electoral system that unfairly discriminates against any party other than Labour and the Tories. The minor parties are therefore driven to do what they can to mitigate that bias. If you honestly can't see that then I should give up if I were you.
    Nonsense. Does the electoral system discriminate against the SNP?

    The electoral system rewards success and penalises favour. It has no regard to which party is which.
    Nonsense. We have an electoral system that favours parties with geographically-concentrated support.
    The electoral system is what it is. There must be an element of geographical bias if you are to give voters a representative in Parliament
    That's not technically true. We used geography because in the old days it was the simplest way to segment the voting population. Why not do it by gender, profession, sexual orientation, home owning state, age, etc?
    Imagine the surgeries held by the MP for 30-something foot-fetishist barristers!
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Roger said:

    Everyone will be "very wealthy" under Labour says leading Corbynista:

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1189857638160293888

    An interview that didn't do either of them much credit. Two cows munching in a field would have been more enlightening
    Emma Barnett seems to be going for the Jeremy Paxman style mock outrage. More heat than the light from that interview style in my view.

    Having said that, the rhetoric from the Corbynistas is quite frightening.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Eagles, that's well worth remembering, and why Johnson apparently wanting head to heads with Corbyn is foolish.

    He's got the advantage (even though his own ratings are very poor) over Corbyn, and the Remain vote is split far more, it seems, than the Leave vote. Head-to-head debates risk reversing both of those things to the detriment of Johnson's electoral prospects.
  • Options

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    It will simply mean I work 50 % more than some of my peers.
  • Options
    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    BigIan said:

    Even in a drubbing, parties always take one or two seats against the tide.

    My prediction for a Labour gain is .....

    .... Arfon.

    It is highly marginal. Only Plaid Cymru or Labour are going to win this seat.

    And Plaid Cymru could easily end up having a worse election than Labour.

    I’m not doubting your prediction, but did the Tories really take any seats off anyone in ‘97?

    Just for clarity I am not expecting a result like 1997 this time for either side.
    Regained Christchurch from LDs who'd taken it at a by election.
    They also "took" Reigate from George Gardiner, briefly of the Referendum Party, who had originally been elected as a Conservative, but defected.
  • Options

    Fishing said:

    By the way, which pollster is the pb.com Gold Standard at the moment?

    I know it used to be IPSOS-MORI but didn't that shift to YouGov for a while? Or has it shifted since?

    Or do we say bollocks to VI and use leader ratings instead?

    For reference, does any one have the leader ratings at the same point (at the start) of the last election? It would be interesting to see how the leaders are rating compared to last time.
    There's this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Leadership_approval_polling
    Cheers Ben. Not exactly what I was hunting for. I will see if I can track down the actual leader ratings...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210
    edited October 2019

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    What will happen in schools?
    Four slightly longer days, 0845-1700
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Gabs2 said:

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    It is amazing that the only people on here calling the Boris deal a surrender are the ones that are ardent Remainers that won't accept the vote. As far as I can tell the post-transition state it delivers is everything the right wants.
    Farage is a busted flush.

    Like UKIP his Brexit Party has had the desired effect in changing Government policy. But now it has changed policy, the only purpose of BXP is to draw away the angry Labour Leaver vote who won't countenance voting Tory. Its 2015 again.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210

    Mr. Eagles, that's well worth remembering, and why Johnson apparently wanting head to heads with Corbyn is foolish.

    He's got the advantage (even though his own ratings are very poor) over Corbyn, and the Remain vote is split far more, it seems, than the Leave vote. Head-to-head debates risk reversing both of those things to the detriment of Johnson's electoral prospects.

    Will you be voting for Andrea Jenkyns again?
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    philiph said:

    Project fear is underway, I see.

    As a strategy it is a bit ropey.

    Out of the EU's worker consumer environment protection framework.

    PLUS

    Big majority for a Tory Party that has been been captured by the reactionary right.

    SPELLS

    ??

    Wake up!
    Not convinced the majority of Tory MPs are reactionary right. I'm willing to see the manifesto first.

    I agree, the EU is sometimes a drag on workers rights and consumer rights.

    I really don't have qualms about a UK government of Tory, LibDem or Labour having the ability to implement regulations on these as the see fit.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    It will simply mean I work 50 % more than some of my peers.
    Why?
  • Options

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    What will happen in schools?
    Four slightly longer days
    So will we all get the same extra day off, or will different schools pick different ones? Either way a lot of parents are going to be fairly unhappy about having to find an extra day of child care...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Plus I am sure the US, India, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Macron's France etc will be happy to welcome our billionaires and their tax revenues if we don't want them
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,463
    Gabs2 said:

    It is amazing that the only people on here calling the Boris deal a surrender are the ones that are ardent Remainers that won't accept the vote. As far as I can tell the post-transition state it delivers is everything the right wants.

    The 'surrender' is of Northern Ireland - it's staying in the EU. Exactly as Merkel supposedly 'demanded' in that 'scandalous' phone call. You know, the one that people got dutifully all worked up about when Cummings briefed it? Yet now it's come to pass it's not a scandal at all. It's cool. Because Boris says it is. Hilarious. But a little sad too. And quite frankly rather concerning.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AndyJS said:

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    The LDs have a once in a lifetime opportunity to overtake Labour during this campaign. Will they take it?
    Not if they keep prattling on about tactical voting. They can not afford to give away any votes - total vote share is an important metric on the rise to major party status.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    It is amazing that the only people on here calling the Boris deal a surrender are the ones that are ardent Remainers that won't accept the vote. As far as I can tell the post-transition state it delivers is everything the right wants.
    If Nigel let's this one go then it will be the third thing, in short order, after the total and immediate forgiveness of Boris for his do or die pledge, following the ease with which he threw the DUP under the bus, that I have been genuinely surprised by.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I might be thinking too much, but it could be in the mutual interest of the PM and Corbyn to insist on head to head debates, and then be “bitterly disappointed” when the inevitable legal challenge from the other parties sees them run into the ground....

    Boris: yes, because that is what Lynton Crosby will advise.
    Corbyn: no, because (a) he needs the exposure, and (b) will be confident he can out-debate Boris.

    I'd not be so certain (b) is true except in an academic sense; it might be that for the less engaged viewer, that is most of them, Boris's bluster will be enough. If you are not listening carefully to the words, Boris's confidence and exuberance make it sound like he must be right. It misled some on pb to declaring Boris the winner at PMQs.

    I suspect Jeremy Corbyn as well as Boris will want to duck any 7-way debates.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    What will happen in schools?
    Four slightly longer days
    So will we all get the same extra day off, or will different schools pick different ones? Either way a lot of parents are going to be fairly unhappy about having to find an extra day of child care...
    Eh?? Fridays become a fully fledged weekend day for everyone; parents save on childcare because school hours match office hours.
  • Options
    Wow. Just found the approval ratings for the leaders from the date of the last election onwards.

    Not really a direct comparison yet because we could do with them from before the election not after. But still amazing how Corbyn's ratings have plummeted

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Cookie said:

    It's none of my business, but I have some misgivings about the LD-Green alliance too. I don't agree with their views on Europe (which admittedly is their defining characteristic at present) but there is much about them that I agree with. Whereas the Greens are a far left party with almost no policies that I'd support. I don't see that deprived of a Lib Dem to vote for voters are going to automatically swing behind the Green candidate.

    The public view of the Greens is odd - they are seen as slightly OTT environmentalists, and the fact that their manifesto is Corbynism on steroids (and not especially focused on the environment) has not filtered through at all. That's partly, I think, because the Tories don't see them as a threat, so they don't bother to highlight the debatable bits.

    Labour left-wingers are irritated by them too, since they feel that if they agree with 90% of the Labour platform, why don't they join Labour? But there's a huge cultural difference - the Labour conference is still essentially a party preparing for potential government, while the Green conference is more like a relaxing set of seminars with a counter-culture flavour. To a lesser extent there's a similar difference to the LibDem conference, which is heavily white and middle-class (like the Conservatives), unlike Labour, but much less counter-culture/flower power than the Greens.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210
    Work shorter. Work smarter.
  • Options

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    It will simply mean I work 50 % more than some of my peers.
    Why?
    palm --> face
  • Options
    philiph said:

    AndyJS said:

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    The LDs have a once in a lifetime opportunity to overtake Labour during this campaign. Will they take it?
    Not if they keep prattling on about tactical voting. They can not afford to give away any votes - total vote share is an important metric on the rise to major party status.
    Have you never seen a Lib Dem bar chart? Tactical voting is voting for them!
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    AndyJS said: "Richard Burgon and Kay Burley for instance."

    Burgon is puzzling - according to Wiki he went to Cambridge and trained as a solicitor.

    Does it say whether he passed?...

    There again he did do law, which is basically a memory test. Us scientists should be allowed to rule the world.
  • Options

    Wow. Just found the approval ratings for the leaders from the date of the last election onwards.

    Not really a direct comparison yet because we could do with them from before the election not after. But still amazing how Corbyn's ratings have plummeted

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017

    Jeremy Corbyn is really bad at politics.

    He is, on the other hand, very experienced at campaigning.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    It is amazing that the only people on here calling the Boris deal a surrender are the ones that are ardent Remainers that won't accept the vote. As far as I can tell the post-transition state it delivers is everything the right wants.

    The 'surrender' is of Northern Ireland - it's staying in the EU. Exactly as Merkel supposedly 'demanded' in that 'scandalous' phone call. You know, the one that people got dutifully all worked up about when Cummings briefed it? Yet now it's come to pass it's not a scandal at all. It's cool. Because Boris says it is. Hilarious. But a little sad too. And quite frankly rather concerning.
    David Trimble was the Unionist Chief Negotiator of the Good Friday Agreement and he supports the deal, so this claim that Northern Ireland is being surrendered is just bullshit. And it is dangerous bullshit that is deliberately fanning the fires of Northern Ireland for party politics.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,210

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    It will simply mean I work 50 % more than some of my peers.
    Why?
    palm --> face
    ?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    philiph said:

    AndyJS said:

    So much ground still to cover in this election - as I said on the previous post with the wild poll swings over the last few months and the wild swing that we saw during the 2017 campaign the idea that there will be no further swings during this one seems bizarre.

    One big binary choice remains - what does Nigel do? Having gone to the trouble of selecting a full slate of Brexit Party candidates I can't see that he steps them all down, especially with no Brexit secured and the surrender Brexit on offer by Johnson a literal anathema to him.

    We may see tactical step downs - a leave alliance where BXP don't stand against the ERG. Other than that I'm expecting them to run and to run properly. If they do - well that dilution of the leave vote isn't good for the Tories. If they don't then its a disaster for Labour, who not only see the leave vote coalesce around the Tories, but see their own leave voters who went Brexit not comng back.

    Watch Farage. Until we know what kind of campaign he is running you literally haven't a clue what will happen.

    The LDs have a once in a lifetime opportunity to overtake Labour during this campaign. Will they take it?
    Not if they keep prattling on about tactical voting. They can not afford to give away any votes - total vote share is an important metric on the rise to major party status.
    Nobody remembers total vote share, it's the number of MPs that matter.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Plus I am sure the US, India, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Macron's France etc will be happy to welcome our billionaires and their tax revenues if we don't want them
    How many of our billionaires live here in any case? I've not got a Sunday Times rich list but of the first three that spring to mind, two live in tax havens, though I'm sure it is only the climate that made them forego dear old Blighty.
  • Options

    What do we all think of a four day week? So much time is wasted on pointless meetings it could be an idea whose time has come.

    Get on with the job!

    I think it would be fine as long as people were prepared to take a 4/5 salary on the proviso with the final 5th being a variable bonus, based on similar or better productivity for a 5 day week.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Plus I am sure the US, India, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Macron's France etc will be happy to welcome our billionaires and their tax revenues if we don't want them
    How many of our billionaires live here in any case? I've not got a Sunday Times rich list but of the first three that spring to mind, two live in tax havens, though I'm sure it is only the climate that made them forego dear old Blighty.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_the_number_of_billionaires
This discussion has been closed.