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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters rate Johnson’s majority chances at evens

Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    First like the LDs!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Bring on the polls!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So Ken Clarke only has a short few days left an MP..... End of an era....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    My vote is Ken Clarke for that gig.....
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Yes, the Tories have had 2 years with a majority in the last 22 years.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    Bring on the polls!

    Those infallible guides to electoral outcomes.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    Well, Ken Clarke will be free :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Bring on the polls!

    Those infallible guides to electoral outcomes.
    Those are the ones. You got any? :)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    My vote is Ken Clarke for that gig.....
    That would certainly ease the pain :lol:
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    My vote is Ken Clarke for that gig.....
    Snap!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,266
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Nonetheless only 3 governments since WW2 have been in office for more than 9 years, the Tory governments of 1951 to 1964 and 1979 to 1997 and the New Labour government of 1997 to 2010. So it would still be a great achievement to win another Tory term
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Also, if you look at it in terms of "total number of seats won in a nine year period", then it wouldn't look that great at all.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So the big question now..... Will we see the return of Ave it and the legendary Don in the comintg weeks.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Nonetheless only 3 governments since WW2 have been in office for more than 9 years, the Tory governments of 1951 to 1964 and 1979 to 1997 and the New Labour government of 1997 to 2010. So it would still be a great achievement to win another Tory term
    9 years is not a bad run for a government, true. Although it has been unconventional as far as 9 years go, with so little of it by majority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    So the big question now..... Will we see the return of Ave it and the legendary Don in the comintg weeks.....

    Was Don the man who knew the polls before they were published?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol what's goin on with Plaid - scared of the voters ?

    They are in for a beating, I'm afraid.

    The party is in disarray, their target seats have been trashed, & they have immolated themselves for the greater glory of Jo Swinson with their stupid Remain Alliance.

    Adam Price will be first leader out the door on Dec 12th.

    I expect his LibDem friends on pb.com will offer him a consolation shovel for his dungheap.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    So the big question now..... Will we see the return of Ave it and the legendary Don in the comintg weeks.....

    Was Don the man who knew the polls before they were published?
    We hung on his every post in 2010....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    Watching some of the Canadian GE coverage the other week, I have to say I was pleasantly surprised how nice the various representatives of the parties they had on the panels were to get other.

    Perhaps the BBC should invite the likes of Ken Clarke and Norman Lamb, rather than the usual mob that spend all their time spinning and accusing others of this, that and the other.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Johnson may be a moron, but even he knows not to be triumphalist.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1189282586469818369
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Nonetheless only 3 governments since WW2 have been in office for more than 9 years, the Tory governments of 1951 to 1964 and 1979 to 1997 and the New Labour government of 1997 to 2010. So it would still be a great achievement to win another Tory term
    It wasn't a Tory government 2010-15, it was a coalition.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    So the big question now..... Will we see the return of Ave it and the legendary Don in the comintg weeks.....

    Was Don the man who knew the polls before they were published?
    We hung on his every post in 2010....
    I thought it was. I was shocked he didn't get shut down, because the number of people who have access to that info must be fairly limited when we are talking GE time rather than run of the mill Sunday paper stuff.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lol what's goin on with Plaid - scared of the voters ?

    They are in for a beating, I'm afraid.

    The party is in disarray, their target seats have been trashed, & they have immolated themselves for the greater glory of Jo Swinson with their stupid Remain Alliance.

    Adam Price will be first leader out the door on Dec 12th.

    I expect his LibDem friends on pb.com will offer him a consolation shovel for his dungheap.
    Who will pick up the seats?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    rcs1000 said:

    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???

    The amendment failed
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited October 2019
    Let's get the band back together, cammo, osborn, clegg and Danny can all stand again as a blues brothers stylie .... Not like they are doing much currently
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
    While coming top for a fourth election in a row would be impressive, that it is 4 in 9 years does diminish it somewhat, when many governments only faced 2-3 elections in that time.
    Nonetheless only 3 governments since WW2 have been in office for more than 9 years, the Tory governments of 1951 to 1964 and 1979 to 1997 and the New Labour government of 1997 to 2010. So it would still be a great achievement to win another Tory term
    It wasn't a Tory government 2010-15, it was a coalition.
    As a million Labour leaflets informed us, it was a Tory-led government though.

    Plus its not like most LDs want to remember those days anyway.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    This is all a bit weird. After all the haggling a 12/12 election is now a near certainty. Why?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    FrankBooth said:

    This is all a bit weird. After all the haggling a 12/12 election is now a near certainty. Why?

    The Tories have bought what one might call the HY grand plan. And then, it suits the LDs (or the LDs decided that it did) and the SNP, and Labour didn’t want to be the only ones against.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited October 2019
    "Sometimes you have to roll the hard six"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkc0RZ8Ym1Y

    Bring it on - let's put Labour back in their box and get Brexit done! :smiley:
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    "Get EM out for Christmas".... (picture of Rees Mogg reclining at the HoC)

    What a slogan....given to Lab on a Christmas platter
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    FrankBooth said:

    This is all a bit weird. After all the haggling a 12/12 election is now a near certainty. Why?

    Because it wasn't about the date, not really. It was about who would win out over the dates. I suspect the pointlessness of the debate over the date pushed a few more to stick with the standard Thursday.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited October 2019
    Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    Got to be Huw Edward's with Andrew Neil as the back up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???

    When Labour’s amendment was narrowly defeated. I haven’t seen an analysis of why they didn’t get the numbers but would guess the various Indy’s weren’t on board
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    solarflare said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    solarflare said:

    Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?

    Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???

    When Labour’s amendment was narrowly defeated. I haven’t seen an analysis of why they didn’t get the numbers but would guess the various Indy’s weren’t on board
    Everyone's enemy is everyone's enemy.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    At one point the Lib Dems, Greens, and PC where talking about only standing one candidate per constituency, I think it was after the Brecon and Radnershire By-election. Is this still the plan? and if so when will it be announced which party is standing where?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    CatMan said:

    Johnson may be a moron, but even he knows not to be triumphalist.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1189282586469818369

    Because last time complacent idiots nearly made Corbyn Prime Minister by accident. No point creating that dynamic again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?


    AFAICS the main change is that Bozo wanted to go to the country with his deal either delivered or obviously blocked, whereas he has been manoeuvred into going when his deal actually got the votes for at least its second reading. Makes people v parliament a tad more difficult, but probably not a huge difference.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    blueblue said:

    Because last time complacent idiots nearly made Corbyn Prime Minister by accident. No point creating that dynamic again.

    Indeed. You can bet they won't make the same mistakes (although no doubt will make others).

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    tyson said:

    "Get EM out for Christmas".... (picture of Rees Mogg reclining at the HoC)

    What a slogan....given to Lab on a Christmas platter

    He was crap though and wasn't PM
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A bit odd that the LDs and SNP abstained on the final vote.

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/734?byMember=false#notrecorded
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    BigRich said:

    At one point the Lib Dems, Greens, and PC where talking about only standing one candidate per constituency, I think it was after the Brecon and Radnershire By-election. Is this still the plan? and if so when will it be announced which party is standing where?

    I am pretty sure the LDs and Greens have been in talks recently at national level. The dynamic has shifted with the Greens fading away post-Euro elections, but if I had any influence (which I don’t) I would argue for the LDs making the Greens a generous offer. As for PC, B&R was seen as a success by both sides but our local commentator downthread may be closer to the mark.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    AndyJS said:

    A bit odd that the LDs and SNP abstained on the final vote.

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/734?byMember=false#notrecorded

    Keeping up pretence that 9 Dec was a really important principle to hold out for.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    So what events do we know about during the campaign?

    - Remembrance Day. Someone will try to trip up Jezza and it might backfire.

    - NATO summit. Trump risk for Boris but based on the telegraph article he’s going to use it to say “the NHS is not for sale”.

    - OBR report. Has to be a major story. There’s probably a BoE forecast due too.

    - GDP numbers?

    - EU summit?

    - What else?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    tyson said:

    "Get EM out for Christmas".... (picture of Rees Mogg reclining at the HoC)

    What a slogan....given to Lab on a Christmas platter

    He was crap though and wasn't PM
    He was crap...and in may view has caused this whole debacle......
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2019
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    A Remainer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

    Too female?
    No Swinson is too partisan to attract Labour switchers. I must say I do think she looks like her position on Brexit is primarily about party gain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    CatMan said:

    Johnson may be a moron, but even he knows not to be triumphalist.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1189282586469818369

    Good move. Voters dislike arrogance and complacency from the party ahead in the polls at the start of a campaign.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Time_to_Leave said:

    So what events do we know about during the campaign?

    - Remembrance Day. Someone will try to trip up Jezza and it might backfire.

    - NATO summit. Trump risk for Boris but based on the telegraph article he’s going to use it to say “the NHS is not for sale”.

    - OBR report. Has to be a major story. There’s probably a BoE forecast due too.

    - GDP numbers?

    - EU summit?

    - What else?

    grenfell report (properly) tomorrow
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Strike action by postal workers likely to affect postal votes.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???

    The amendment failed
    DUP voted against because it screwed up the timings for the Northern Ireland budget.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    A brexiteer economist for BoE guv'nor?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    It's best not to be complacent. Everyone expected Corbyn to do badly last time and he almost won.
    Everybody expected Corbyn to do badly last time and he did do badly.
    They expected him to do more badly than he did.
    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    What wasted effort they expended.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    Huw Edwards probably.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

    Too female?
    No Swinson is too partisan to attract Labour switchers. I must say I do think she looks like her position on Brexit is primarily about party gain.
    Politicians saying something popular?? that can't be right!
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Banterman said:

    solarflare said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
    Even without, there’s the Christmas post to worry about, with sorting offices awash with cards (decreasingly) and Amazon parcels (increasingly). The posties won’t be too keen to deliver the election leaflets on top of everything else (although they get paid handsomely for doing so) and RM will need some sort of priority system to make sure the PVs themselves don’t get lost in the wash.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/29/the-guardian-view-on-a-snap-election-a-reckoning-the-voters-may-not-want

    Pathetic editorial from the Guardian. In fairness I suspect that this isn't exactly what they think. But focusing everything on Boris, not a parliament that keeps saying 'no' or a leader of the opposition with the worst ratings ever? A great newspaper is on the slide.

    In 2015 the graun gave Ed Miliband the benefit of the doubt, not because it was a natural Labour paper but because he was closest to its soft liberal outlook. They're clearly scared of momentum.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    justin124 said:

    Strike action by postal workers likely to affect postal votes.

    https://twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1189281162633580551
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    IanB2 said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?


    AFAICS the main change is that Bozo wanted to go to the country with his deal either delivered or obviously blocked, whereas he has been manoeuvred into going when his deal actually got the votes for at least its second reading. Makes people v parliament a tad more difficult, but probably not a huge difference.
    I think Boris would have been in a worse shape a month ago before he achieved his deal.

    Few voters know the details of parliamentary votes so they will tend to believe what they want to.

    I suspect Labour have been the losers from the delay.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    Nah they’ve been on the piss for years, drawing their salary and sending the odd email. Or are other people more professional than me?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    I see there is a brief shot of JRM in Corbyn's election video.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Owen Thingy down.

    https://twitter.com/owensmith_mp/status/1189285858307985409?s=21
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BigRich said:

    At one point the Lib Dems, Greens, and PC where talking about only standing one candidate per constituency, I think it was after the Brecon and Radnershire By-election. Is this still the plan? and if so when will it be announced which party is standing where?

    They might do that in a handful of seats, but I doubt it will be widespread.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    blueblue said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
    A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON biggest party

    LAB = 😀
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Ave_it said:

    CON biggest party

    LAB = 😀

    BINGO.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    IanB2 said:

    blueblue said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
    A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
    “This is as good as it gets” isn’t as inspiring as threatening to leave without a deal unless the EU gives way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    IanB2 said:

    blueblue said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
    A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
    How else would he get on TV? So he has to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    spudgfsh said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
    If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    williamglenn said:

    Owen Thingy down.

    https://twitter.com/owensmith_mp/status/1189285858307985409?s=21

    'Political and personal reasons'. Care to elaborate on the political ones?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    williamglenn said:

    Owen Thingy down.

    https://twitter.com/owensmith_mp/status/1189285858307985409?s=21

    No best wishes for Jezza in the election.... How many lab mps won't be able to fight for a corbyn premiership.....
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    IanB2 said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?


    AFAICS the main change is that Bozo wanted to go to the country with his deal either delivered or obviously blocked, whereas he has been manoeuvred into going when his deal actually got the votes for at least its second reading. Makes people v parliament a tad more difficult, but probably not a huge difference.
    I think you may be right, There may not be enough anger in leave supporting Labor voters to brake the habit of a live time and vote Con, or former non-voting lave supporters to tern out on a cold winter night. Conversely now a deal is on the table there may be some remain supporting Con voters might have voted LD or Lab to stop a No-Deal brexit, but are more relaxed about the new Deal.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    FrankBooth said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/29/the-guardian-view-on-a-snap-election-a-reckoning-the-voters-may-not-want

    Pathetic editorial from the Guardian. In fairness I suspect that this isn't exactly what they think. But focusing everything on Boris, not a parliament that keeps saying 'no' or a leader of the opposition with the worst ratings ever? A great newspaper is on the slide.

    In 2015 the graun gave Ed Miliband the benefit of the doubt, not because it was a natural Labour paper but because he was closest to its soft liberal outlook. They're clearly scared of momentum.

    The Guardian is a Remain paper, with Remain readers. Labour isn’t a Remain party. The paper needs to come out for the LibDems.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: rumours of Johnson moving to Beaconsfield. Sounds like utter nonsense to me.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Are there any markets available on the PM running away to a new constituency?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    edit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Ave_it said:

    CON biggest party

    LAB = 😀

    Boom.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Ave_it said:

    CON biggest party

    LAB = 😀

    Not predicting the majority?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: rumours of Johnson moving to Beaconsfield. Sounds like utter nonsense to me.

    He has run from scrutiny and responsibility his whole life. I will be very surprised if he is willing to stand in (outer) London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    williamglenn said:

    Owen Thingy down.

    twitter.com/owensmith_mp/status/1189285858307985409?s=21

    Owen who?
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    edited October 2019
    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    spudgfsh said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years

    Tory victory is dependent on winning Labour seats likely to be redrawn out of existence. I doubt they’ll want boundary changes now.

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    IanB2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
    If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
    It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    williamglenn said:

    IanB2 said:

    blueblue said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
    A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
    “This is as good as it gets” isn’t as inspiring as threatening to leave without a deal unless the EU gives way.
    That won’t be the message though. Presumably he’s going to go with “once this is all out of the way, through my stunning deal, we can X, Y, and Z”. We’ve been shown the “get Brexit done” slogan but the manifesto will presumably be part two.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    CatMan said:

    Anyone know who is going to present the BBC election coverage?

    I had heard Huw Edwards. David Dimbleby has ruled himself out.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    IanB2 said:

    blueblue said:

    another_richard said:

    So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?

    Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.

    So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
    A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
    Even Farage knows that if the Tories lose this GE, then Brexit is gone forever, with a strong likelihood of a socialist government messing up his finances. I suspect Banks has probably come to the same conclusion, and will be reluctant to disintegrate Boris' right flank.

    Besides, Brexit was never just about Brexit, it's about the culture war as a whole. And knowing that the people they hate will cry and whine if Boris is elected gives Brexity types a powerful incentive to put a cross in his box no matter what their feelings about his Deal...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: rumours of Johnson moving to Beaconsfield. Sounds like utter nonsense to me.

    Sevenoaks is more likely. Going head to head with Grieve is way too high profile.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    noneoftheabove said:

    Are there any markets available on the PM running away to a new constituency?

    There was one up, but it got pulled before the last attempt at getting a GE.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Banterman said:

    solarflare said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious

    Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wait. I thought it was December 9 election. When did it change???

    When Labour’s amendment was narrowly defeated. I haven’t seen an analysis of why they didn’t get the numbers but would guess the various Indy’s weren’t on board
    This one?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/733
This discussion has been closed.