something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
Regarding boundaries, I would expect Boris to tell the commission to start again (possibly with new rules). He has a strong personal motivation to get rid of the current proposals as Uxbridge would lose Yiewsley to H&H and gain Northolt from Ealing North, flipping the seat to Lab.
If the Cons have a good election in Wales, Boris could even keep the 650 seats and Wales over-representation.
It makes sense to start again anyway as there have been council mergers e.g. Poole and major ward boundary changes e.g. Birmingham.
Also the Welsh constituency proposals were a bit of a mess last time around.
Personal view, a +7.5%/-7.5% band around the average is much better than the current -30%/+50% range. It also avoids overfitting, where sensible geographical entities are split up to make constituencies perfectly even in size.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
Definitely go to one of the thermal pools. The Blue Lagoon, about halfway between the airport and the city, is the most famous, and I understand has to be pre-booked these days, but there are others. Go even if it’s raining, the feeling of being immersed to the neck in warm water while it rains on your face is much much nicer than you’d imagine.
The 'secret lagoon' is slightly less mobbed that the Blue Lagoon
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
Don't give up early on the northern lights. We were just about to head to bed - when they fired up.
Matarkjallarinn - Foodcellar was very good.
Can't recall the name, but here was an old merchant's house in the centre of Reykjavik that was superb - although the menu is not for the squeamish. Whale, puffin - baby horse nearly had the Good Lady walking out. But the lamb and the fish are well worth the not cheap prices.
There is a hydrothermal plant out of town you can visit that has an "earthquake machine" - that was fun.
We couldn't get to the old parliament site because of a big freeze when we went, but that is a great trip by all accounts.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.
Anyway..... a huge well done for David Herdson who called the election with his thread lead last Saturday... David might well be a Tory, but he is very astute......
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
To clarify I don't mean for once I hope you are right because you are normally wrong or anything like that. But for once I hope the Tories get a majority as it will secure Brexit. At any other time I would be very happy to see all three main parties crash and burn.
My problem is I find it impossible to read these things. I honestly have no idea at all whether Johnson will get a majority or not. So your assurances are comforting.
Evening Richard. Thank you for the kind word.
While I voted Leave, reluctantly but for my reasons, in June 2016, the process of enacting the vote has been so poorly managed and progressed it is almost a case of the cure being worse then the disease.
The politics of this country have become polarised and debilitated and I quite understand how many just want it done, the referendum result enacted and the UK to leave the EU.
The problem I have is what then? How do we rebuild that which has been broken? I fear those who support Johnson and the Conservatives will show no magnanimity in victory and will be too busy gloating about their success to not only set about healing the divisions but to effectively govern.
As for the EU, once we're out, what then? It;s all very well talking about making Britain "the greatest place on Earth" but that's Trumpian nonsense when people have to wait a month to see a GP, the transport system is stretched beyond capacity, our housing system remains seriously disadvantageous for those with little money to spend and our care for the elderly remains bogged down in means tests and finances.
We can, should and must be so much better. My problem is while I know Corbyn and McDonnell won't make things any better, I'm far from convinced Johnson and Javid will either. I suspect I'm not alone in having those concerns.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs than us despite very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
France has a lot more politicians at local level, especially tons of mayors.
The public will not vote for a British PM based on their views or otherwise of a US President.
That is fantasy-land im afraid.
I agree. I remember, when Brown was at his most desperate, trying to do everything he could to get into photoshots with Obama. Embarrassing and cringeworthy.
And then Cameron trying to involve Obama and H Clinton in the referendum. How did that work out?
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs than us despite very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
France has a lot more politicians at local level, especially tons of mayors.
Interesting. Which would, therefore, be an argument either for us to retain a higher number of MPs, or only reduce it while aso increasing the number of local politicians. Which to be fair the government attempted to a degree, at least with mayors (with very odd boundaries). But I doubt promising to increase the number of politicians locally in exchange for fewer MPs will be a popular sell.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
yes there were a couple of classics at the last locals. A husband and wife and the wrong one got declared the winner and a mind boggling one in Swindon village council where a whole bunch of people got more votes than ballots cast. I can explain, but the story is too long, but it involved an idiot in the counting process.
Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
Last time I was there Bobby Fisher vs. Boris Spasky was in full flow.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
Don't give up early on the northern lights. We were just about to head to bed - when they fired up.
Matarkjallarinn - Foodcellar was very good.
Can't recall the name, but here was an old merchant's house in the centre of Reykjavik that was superb - although the menu is not for the squeamish. Whale, puffin - baby horse nearly had the Good Lady walking out. But the lamb and the fish are well worth the not cheap prices.
There is a hydrothermal plant out of town you can visit that has an "earthquake machine" - that was fun.
We couldn't get to the old parliament site because of a big freeze when we went, but that is a great trip by all accounts.
I caught them on the way back from a trip to Vik - if the tour drivers spot the lights, they do tend to pull over and let you view.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.
Night all.
I'm going to watch them not eat them.
We saw some from the QM2. Or more accurately, we saw some water spouts and the occssional fin fleetingly breaking the surface; they don’t seem to jump out of the water like at Seaworld.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
yes there were a couple of classics at the last locals. A husband and wife and the wrong one got declared the winner and a mind boggling one in Swindon village council where a whole bunch of people got more votes than ballots cast. I can explain, but the story is too long, but it involved an idiot in the counting process.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
...and the most appalling constituency boundaries anywhere in the world.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.
Night all.
Why?
Whales are the primary cause of global warming, and the more of the muthafeckas we gobble up the better.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
But again a lot more politicians at state and county level
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
Definitely go to one of the thermal pools. The Blue Lagoon, about halfway between the airport and the city, is the most famous, and I understand has to be pre-booked these days, but there are others. Go even if it’s raining, the feeling of being immersed to the neck in warm water while it rains on your face is much much nicer than you’d imagine.
I thought about it but sounds a bit touristy. I have been advised to ask the locals about the more low key ones. I do enjoy it, but not for too long. Love doing it after skiing when in Austria (obviously not natural there but swimming in the snow after a hard day is fantastic)
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.
I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
Legally a postal vote cast before polls close is a valid vote and must be counted and the losing parties in a close result can and would successfully challenge in court to overturn the result if they were not counted
Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
Last time I was there Bobby Fisher vs. Boris Spasky was in full flow.
The country has probably grown quite a bit since then.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
...and the most appalling constituency boundaries anywhere in the world.
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
Which constituency are you in now?
Choose your vote on the local candidate, not leader.
If Lab lose say 30 seats it will be very hard for LDs to put them into Govt as Lab would be seen as having lost the election pretty badly. It would be even more of a stretch to let Corbyn be PM.
So if the result is something like the following I think a Con Minority Govt would be most likely. If it was a Lab Minority Govt it wouldn't be under Corbyn.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.
Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.
I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).
Which state has it right? I have no idea.
The over centralisation of power in the UK is far more of an issue than the number of MPs bums on seats
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.
Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
So what gaffes are you expecting? No one gets through a campaign without any.
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
The maternal reasoning went like this:
1) Swinson - annoying and a bit dim.
2) Corbyn - no chance, my parents are from a seriously poor working class background turned middle class professionals, perception that he will try and raid the family coffers to give it to the workshy.
3) Boris - awful, but at least he is trying to respect the result of the referendum.
If Andy Burnham or Keir Starmer were Labour leader, she would vote for them, but she despises Corbyn.
I think there's every chance she will vote Tory for the first time ever.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
The US is a Federal State, so each of the constituent States has it's own House of Representatives and Senate, Governor and Supreme Court. A County Council and PCC doesn't really compare. The UK is absurdly over-centralised and so there is a corresponding greater need for MPs.
If more power was devolved to regions or local councils then you could reduce the number of ministers and reduce the number of MPs.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.
Not many.
Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so. Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so. Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.
You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
I take the point of MPs forming the executive.
However, I still think the number of MPs is too great. But i am passive about it.
"The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.
Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.
As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
Given how the recent period of minority government has been a dreadful advert, some might vote Tory then rather than have a repeat of the current shit show. No point in voting LibDem to have more of the same.
I think Boris will be returned with a majority (not a landslide but workable) Labour will get a drubbing. Lib-Dems will make significant gains. BXP will make a handful of gains against Labour and SNP will do well (but perhaps not as well as many think they might)
But then again I thought Theresa May would get a 100 seat majority in 2017 so what the **** do I know.
"The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.
Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.
As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.
Not many.
Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so. Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so. Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.
You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
Bashing the Public School pushes is a pretty good core vote strategy in Northern Leave towns, hard for Bozo and Lord Snooty to counter.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
Given how the recent period of minority government has been a dreadful advert, some might vote Tory then rather than have a repeat of the current shit show. No point in voting LibDem to have more of the same.
I sense you may have been at the Wishful Thinking bottle again
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
With the DUP against everything possible including extension, and a new unknown speaker, no deal in a new hung parliament will be far more likely than it has been under this parliament.
"The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.
Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.
As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."
lol - BJ wants to make the election about law and order after his stunt with the letters? I dont think the judge has ruled on that but i dont discount i could have missed it.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
Not sure how you cancel it without either Jo Swinson winning a majority on revoke or a referendum
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....
Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.
Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
There’s a fair chunk of voters who wanted Brexit done because they didn’t want to go through the referendum process again. Now, rather than do Brexit, Bozo has gone to a GE and effectively given them the chance to reject Brexit, if they wish. How these Tory remainers fall will be critical to the election outcome.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
No it isn't. Ministers have to resign from the Chamber of Deputies, though they return one month after they resign from their portfolio.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.
Not many.
Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so. Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so. Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.
You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
Bashing the Public School pushes is a pretty good core vote strategy in Northern Leave towns, hard for Bozo and Lord Snooty to counter.
No, bashing public schools may work in Islington, Hackney or Liverpool, it will not work in Bassetlaw or Enfield or Stoke
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
Not sure how you cancel it without either Jo Swinson winning a majority on revoke or a referendum
Well we would have had two GEs called to give a mandate for Brexit and the people refused to give it. Would be time to move on.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
I take the point of MPs forming the executive.
However, I still think the number of MPs is too great. But i am passive about it.
I think a lot of people think it is too high, which is why I doubt many people minded a reduction to 600 outsie of MPs themselves, but the problem with reviews like that, and at lower levels, is it's treated like a science, something clearly measurable, but if there's definitive word on what number works best with what type of system, I've not seen in, and arbitrary decisions on cost grounds can end up prevailing without really assessing if it will work. You see that at local electoral reviews a lot, where there is a presumption that fewer members equals a more efficient governance arrangement, which could be true, but is not guaranteed.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.
I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
No it isn't. Ministers have to resign from the Chamber of Deputies, though they return one month after they resign from their portfolio.
Interesting! How does that work, does the number of seats vary, or does someone have to give up their seat?
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....
Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
No, it was quite obvious a chunk of Labour MPs wouldn’t have gone down any of those routes, after Bozo came back with his deal. Only the risk of no deal enabled Labour to keep its troops on one side of the field.
I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
Or, Johnson will run a minority government before returning to the people for another GE in March.
Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....
Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
The LibDems have proposed a #peoplesvote 8 times in Parliament. Lab whipped against. The numbers were simply never there for a GNU either.
Corbyn has been the Tories little helper through this whole process.
If you asked me to predict today, I’d guess Con 305, Lab 227 SNP 50 Lib Dems 40 Plaid Cymru 5 Brexit 4 Green 1 NI 18.
But I wouldn’t bet 20p on that.
My sense is either that, or it breaks just right for Boris and he does well. The trouble is those scenarios are really quite different so it gets me nowhere.
Comments
When will get to see your first offiical seat projection?
Personal view, a +7.5%/-7.5% band around the average is much better than the current -30%/+50% range. It also avoids overfitting, where sensible geographical entities are split up to make constituencies perfectly even in size.
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g608871-d6869489-Reviews-Secret_Lagoon_Gamla_Laugin-Fludir_South_Region.html
Matarkjallarinn - Foodcellar was very good.
Can't recall the name, but here was an old merchant's house in the centre of Reykjavik that was superb - although the menu is not for the squeamish. Whale, puffin - baby horse nearly had the Good Lady walking out. But the lamb and the fish are well worth the not cheap prices.
There is a hydrothermal plant out of town you can visit that has an "earthquake machine" - that was fun.
We couldn't get to the old parliament site because of a big freeze when we went, but that is a great trip by all accounts.
a huge well done for David Herdson who called the election with his thread lead last Saturday...
David might well be a Tory, but he is very astute......
While I voted Leave, reluctantly but for my reasons, in June 2016, the process of enacting the vote has been so poorly managed and progressed it is almost a case of the cure being worse then the disease.
The politics of this country have become polarised and debilitated and I quite understand how many just want it done, the referendum result enacted and the UK to leave the EU.
The problem I have is what then? How do we rebuild that which has been broken? I fear those who support Johnson and the Conservatives will show no magnanimity in victory and will be too busy gloating about their success to not only set about healing the divisions but to effectively govern.
As for the EU, once we're out, what then? It;s all very well talking about making Britain "the greatest place on Earth" but that's Trumpian nonsense when people have to wait a month to see a GP, the transport system is stretched beyond capacity, our housing system remains seriously disadvantageous for those with little money to spend and our care for the elderly remains bogged down in means tests and finances.
We can, should and must be so much better. My problem is while I know Corbyn and McDonnell won't make things any better, I'm far from convinced Johnson and Javid will either. I suspect I'm not alone in having those concerns.
The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
And then Cameron trying to involve Obama and H Clinton in the referendum. How did that work out?
Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
It's what Greta would want.
There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
Thank you.
I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).
Which state has it right? I have no idea.
Choose your vote on the local candidate, not leader.
The one thing we can all agree on is Corbyn is hopeless and Labour are terrified of a serious drubbing in December.
To be more positive, defeat brings opportunities.
Swinson is a tad on the manic side to watch though...better than Farron and Cable mind.....but not a high bar to pass
So if the result is something like the following I think a Con Minority Govt would be most likely. If it was a Lab Minority Govt it wouldn't be under Corbyn.
Con 305
Lab 230
SNP 52
LD 40
PC 4
Green 1
NI 18
Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
(Remember to delete this message before reporting to Moscow).
Tory Swinson Party
Anyone know if Lloyd will have LD backing in Eastbourne?
1) Swinson - annoying and a bit dim.
2) Corbyn - no chance, my parents are from a seriously poor working class background turned middle class professionals, perception that he will try and raid the family coffers to give it to the workshy.
3) Boris - awful, but at least he is trying to respect the result of the referendum.
If Andy Burnham or Keir Starmer were Labour leader, she would vote for them, but she despises Corbyn.
I think there's every chance she will vote Tory for the first time ever.
If more power was devolved to regions or local councils then you could reduce the number of ministers and reduce the number of MPs.
Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so.
Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so.
Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.
You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
However, I still think the number of MPs is too great. But i am passive about it.
"The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.
Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.
As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."
Guardian live update @ 21:55
But then again I thought Theresa May would get a 100 seat majority in 2017 so what the **** do I know.
But I wouldn’t bet 20p on that.
Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1189306259830386690?s=21
Corbyn has been the Tories little helper through this whole process.