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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Ave_it said:

    Boris is welcome in my constituency Ruislip Northwood etc. We deserve to be represented by the PM

    Ave It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

    When will get to see your first offiical seat projection? ;)
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    So what events do we know about during the campaign?

    - Remembrance Day. Someone will try to trip up Jezza and it might backfire.

    - NATO summit. Trump risk for Boris but based on the telegraph article he’s going to use it to say “the NHS is not for sale”.

    - OBR report. Has to be a major story. There’s probably a BoE forecast due too.

    - GDP numbers?

    - EU summit?

    - What else?

    Candidate refuses to be intimidated by gang of ten-year-olds throwing snowballs?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,054
    edited October 2019
    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Banterman said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious

    Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.

    That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
    I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.

    I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
    Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
    Where do you get ideas like that from?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    sarissa said:

    So what events do we know about during the campaign?

    - Remembrance Day. Someone will try to trip up Jezza and it might backfire.

    - NATO summit. Trump risk for Boris but based on the telegraph article he’s going to use it to say “the NHS is not for sale”.

    - OBR report. Has to be a major story. There’s probably a BoE forecast due too.

    - GDP numbers?

    - EU summit?

    - What else?

    Candidate refuses to be intimidated by gang of ten-year-olds throwing snowballs?
    Snowballs that early in December?!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    spudgfsh said:

    Two observations.

    1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.

    2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.

    I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
    Regarding boundaries, I would expect Boris to tell the commission to start again (possibly with new rules). He has a strong personal motivation to get rid of the current proposals as Uxbridge would lose Yiewsley to H&H and gain Northolt from Ealing North, flipping the seat to Lab.

    If the Cons have a good election in Wales, Boris could even keep the 650 seats and Wales over-representation.

    It makes sense to start again anyway as there have been council mergers e.g. Poole and major ward boundary changes e.g. Birmingham.
    Also the Welsh constituency proposals were a bit of a mess last time around.

    Personal view, a +7.5%/-7.5% band around the average is much better than the current -30%/+50% range. It also avoids overfitting, where sensible geographical entities are split up to make constituencies perfectly even in size.
  • rpjs said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
    Definitely go to one of the thermal pools. The Blue Lagoon, about halfway between the airport and the city, is the most famous, and I understand has to be pre-booked these days, but there are others. Go even if it’s raining, the feeling of being immersed to the neck in warm water while it rains on your face is much much nicer than you’d imagine.
    The 'secret lagoon' is slightly less mobbed that the Blue Lagoon

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g608871-d6869489-Reviews-Secret_Lagoon_Gamla_Laugin-Fludir_South_Region.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    Don't give up early on the northern lights. We were just about to head to bed - when they fired up.

    Matarkjallarinn - Foodcellar was very good.

    Can't recall the name, but here was an old merchant's house in the centre of Reykjavik that was superb - although the menu is not for the squeamish. Whale, puffin - baby horse nearly had the Good Lady walking out. But the lamb and the fish are well worth the not cheap prices.

    There is a hydrothermal plant out of town you can visit that has an "earthquake machine" - that was fun.

    We couldn't get to the old parliament site because of a big freeze when we went, but that is a great trip by all accounts.
  • Pulpstar said:

    If push and shove come, what do the Lib Dems do with regards to supply and confidence for either Corbyn or Johnson ?

    I think PM Swinson will accept the supply and confidence offer of whichever leader apologises for the last 3 years first.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.

    The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.

    On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
    Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.

    Night all.
    Why?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Anyway.....
    a huge well done for David Herdson who called the election with his thread lead last Saturday...
    David might well be a Tory, but he is very astute......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
    Not.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    eristdoof said:

    BigRich said:

    Thinking of the possible Royal Mail strike:

    Do we know who normally gets the most Postal votes?

    I think the numbers are not meant to be released, but wonder is some of the hard core hacks on here know from experience?

    I would have thought if Labor are normally the bigger beneficiary that whatever is sead in public the union will be working the week before the vote.

    "Labor"?

    Who are they?
    They are the centre left party in Australia. It's hard to see them picking up many seats on 12.12.
    Why do the Aussies use the Septic spelling?
    A decision taken by the Australian party over 100 years ago, AIR, and out of line with Aussie spelling generally
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,899


    Evening Stodge. For once I hope you are right.

    To clarify I don't mean for once I hope you are right because you are normally wrong or anything like that. But for once I hope the Tories get a majority as it will secure Brexit. At any other time I would be very happy to see all three main parties crash and burn.

    My problem is I find it impossible to read these things. I honestly have no idea at all whether Johnson will get a majority or not. So your assurances are comforting.

    Evening Richard. Thank you for the kind word.

    While I voted Leave, reluctantly but for my reasons, in June 2016, the process of enacting the vote has been so poorly managed and progressed it is almost a case of the cure being worse then the disease.

    The politics of this country have become polarised and debilitated and I quite understand how many just want it done, the referendum result enacted and the UK to leave the EU.

    The problem I have is what then? How do we rebuild that which has been broken? I fear those who support Johnson and the Conservatives will show no magnanimity in victory and will be too busy gloating about their success to not only set about healing the divisions but to effectively govern.

    As for the EU, once we're out, what then? It;s all very well talking about making Britain "the greatest place on Earth" but that's Trumpian nonsense when people have to wait a month to see a GP, the transport system is stretched beyond capacity, our housing system remains seriously disadvantageous for those with little money to spend and our care for the elderly remains bogged down in means tests and finances.

    We can, should and must be so much better. My problem is while I know Corbyn and McDonnell won't make things any better, I'm far from convinced Johnson and Javid will either. I suspect I'm not alone in having those concerns.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
    Appointed.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs than us despite very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    France has a lot more politicians at local level, especially tons of mayors.
  • tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Ave_it said:

    Big parties come through

    We were thinking of running a book on when you would come back. I stockpiled exclamation marks specially... :)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,054
    edited October 2019



    The public will not vote for a British PM based on their views or otherwise of a US President.

    That is fantasy-land im afraid.

    I agree. I remember, when Brown was at his most desperate, trying to do everything he could to get into photoshots with Obama. Embarrassing and cringeworthy.

    And then Cameron trying to involve Obama and H Clinton in the referendum. How did that work out?
  • tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    Female MPs do seem to get a disproportionate amount of stick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs than us despite very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    France has a lot more politicians at local level, especially tons of mayors.
    Interesting. Which would, therefore, be an argument either for us to retain a higher number of MPs, or only reduce it while aso increasing the number of local politicians. Which to be fair the government attempted to a degree, at least with mayors (with very odd boundaries). But I doubt promising to increase the number of politicians locally in exchange for fewer MPs will be a popular sell.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,814
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Banterman said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious

    Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.

    That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
    I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.

    I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
    Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
    I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
    yes there were a couple of classics at the last locals. A husband and wife and the wrong one got declared the winner and a mind boggling one in Swindon village council where a whole bunch of people got more votes than ballots cast. I can explain, but the story is too long, but it involved an idiot in the counting process.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
    I stayed in a hotel at Hlemmur (Hlemmur Square), which used to do decent food, worth a look at their website to see if that is still the case!

    Everyone tends to go here, as well:

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g189970-d1852122-r472494233-Baejarins_Beztu_Pylsur-Reykjavik_Capital_Region.html

    Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
    Last time I was there Bobby Fisher vs. Boris Spasky was in full flow.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,814

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.

    The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.

    On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
    Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.

    Night all.
    I'm going to watch them not eat them.
  • kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    Don't give up early on the northern lights. We were just about to head to bed - when they fired up.

    Matarkjallarinn - Foodcellar was very good.

    Can't recall the name, but here was an old merchant's house in the centre of Reykjavik that was superb - although the menu is not for the squeamish. Whale, puffin - baby horse nearly had the Good Lady walking out. But the lamb and the fish are well worth the not cheap prices.

    There is a hydrothermal plant out of town you can visit that has an "earthquake machine" - that was fun.

    We couldn't get to the old parliament site because of a big freeze when we went, but that is a great trip by all accounts.
    I caught them on the way back from a trip to Vik - if the tour drivers spot the lights, they do tend to pull over and let you view.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Are the Russian bots firing up to get their man over the line?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jonathan said:

    Are the Russian bots firing up to get their man over the line?

    Nigel? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.

    The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.

    On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
    Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.

    Night all.
    I'm going to watch them not eat them.
    We saw some from the QM2. Or more accurately, we saw some water spouts and the occssional fin fleetingly breaking the surface; they don’t seem to jump out of the water like at Seaworld.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited October 2019

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
  • kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Banterman said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious

    Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.

    That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
    I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.

    I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
    Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
    I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
    yes there were a couple of classics at the last locals. A husband and wife and the wrong one got declared the winner and a mind boggling one in Swindon village council where a whole bunch of people got more votes than ballots cast. I can explain, but the story is too long, but it involved an idiot in the counting process.
    Chris Grayling perhaps?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    ...and the most appalling constituency boundaries anywhere in the world.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.

    The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.

    On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
    Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.

    Night all.
    Why?
    Whales are the primary cause of global warming, and the more of the muthafeckas we gobble up the better.

    It's what Greta would want.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    But again a lot more politicians at state and county level
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,814
    rpjs said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
    Definitely go to one of the thermal pools. The Blue Lagoon, about halfway between the airport and the city, is the most famous, and I understand has to be pre-booked these days, but there are others. Go even if it’s raining, the feeling of being immersed to the neck in warm water while it rains on your face is much much nicer than you’d imagine.
    I thought about it but sounds a bit touristy. I have been advised to ask the locals about the more low key ones. I do enjoy it, but not for too long. Love doing it after skiing when in Austria (obviously not natural there but swimming in the snow after a hard day is fantastic)

    Thank you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.

    I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).

    Which state has it right? I have no idea.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Jonathan said:

    Are the Russian bots firing up to get their man over the line?

    Yep. Expect PB to be infested with dogmatic new posters claiming local knowledge, and never heard from again after polls close.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112

    Pierrot said:

    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image

    Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.

    As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.

    Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
    How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Banterman said:

    Curse of the new thread....

    FPT:

    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?

    A Royal Mail strike?
    The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious

    Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.

    That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
    I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.

    I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
    Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
    I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
    Legally a postal vote cast before polls close is a valid vote and must be counted and the losing parties in a close result can and would successfully challenge in court to overturn the result if they were not counted
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If Jo Swinson loses her seat but Lib-Dems replace Labour as official Opposition Chuka might be LOTO by Christmas! :open_mouth:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    Are the Russian bots firing up to get their man over the line?

    Да, товарищ
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    philiph said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?

    If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.

    Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.

    Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.

    Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.

    I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
    I stayed in a hotel at Hlemmur (Hlemmur Square), which used to do decent food, worth a look at their website to see if that is still the case!

    Everyone tends to go here, as well:

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g189970-d1852122-r472494233-Baejarins_Beztu_Pylsur-Reykjavik_Capital_Region.html

    Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
    Last time I was there Bobby Fisher vs. Boris Spasky was in full flow.
    The country has probably grown quite a bit since then.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    IanB2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    BigRich said:

    Thinking of the possible Royal Mail strike:

    Do we know who normally gets the most Postal votes?

    I think the numbers are not meant to be released, but wonder is some of the hard core hacks on here know from experience?

    I would have thought if Labor are normally the bigger beneficiary that whatever is sead in public the union will be working the week before the vote.

    "Labor"?

    Who are they?
    They are the centre left party in Australia. It's hard to see them picking up many seats on 12.12.
    Why do the Aussies use the Septic spelling?
    A decision taken by the Australian party over 100 years ago, AIR, and out of line with Aussie spelling generally
    IIRC it was because the US labor movement helped set up the Australian party.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    eristdoof said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    ...and the most appalling constituency boundaries anywhere in the world.
    +1 Now that is gerrymandering! Unbelievably bad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    Which constituency are you in now?

    Choose your vote on the local candidate, not leader.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,899
    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    No she isn't.

    The one thing we can all agree on is Corbyn is hopeless and Labour are terrified of a serious drubbing in December.

    To be more positive, defeat brings opportunities.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    Female MPs do seem to get a disproportionate amount of stick.
    You are right....politics is by nature an asbergery male pursuit...why most here on pobCOM are blokes.....

    Swinson is a tad on the manic side to watch though...better than Farron and Cable mind.....but not a high bar to pass
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711
    If Lab lose say 30 seats it will be very hard for LDs to put them into Govt as Lab would be seen as having lost the election pretty badly. It would be even more of a stretch to let Corbyn be PM.

    So if the result is something like the following I think a Con Minority Govt would be most likely. If it was a Lab Minority Govt it wouldn't be under Corbyn.

    Con 305
    Lab 230
    SNP 52
    LD 40
    PC 4
    Green 1
    NI 18
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.

    Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Are the Russian bots firing up to get their man over the line?

    Yep. Expect PB to be infested with dogmatic new posters claiming local knowledge, and never heard from again after polls close.
    So annoying - us real Russian bots play the long game.

    (Remember to delete this message before reporting to Moscow).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Pulpstar said:

    If push and shove come, what do the Lib Dems do with regards to supply and confidence for either Corbyn or Johnson ?

    Do you really need to ask.

    Tory Swinson Party
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.

    I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).

    Which state has it right? I have no idea.
    The over centralisation of power in the UK is far more of an issue than the number of MPs bums on seats
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.

    Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
    So what gaffes are you expecting? No one gets through a campaign without any.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    GIN1138 said:

    If Jo Swinson loses her seat but Lib-Dems replace Labour as official Opposition Chuka might be LOTO by Christmas! :open_mouth:

    Ed Davey is Deputy Leader, so would take over.

    Anyone know if Lloyd will have LD backing in Eastbourne?
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    The maternal reasoning went like this:

    1) Swinson - annoying and a bit dim.

    2) Corbyn - no chance, my parents are from a seriously poor working class background turned middle class professionals, perception that he will try and raid the family coffers to give it to the workshy.

    3) Boris - awful, but at least he is trying to respect the result of the referendum.

    If Andy Burnham or Keir Starmer were Labour leader, she would vote for them, but she despises Corbyn.

    I think there's every chance she will vote Tory for the first time ever.

  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    The US is a Federal State, so each of the constituent States has it's own House of Representatives and Senate, Governor and Supreme Court. A County Council and PCC doesn't really compare. The UK is absurdly over-centralised and so there is a corresponding greater need for MPs.

    If more power was devolved to regions or local councils then you could reduce the number of ministers and reduce the number of MPs.
  • Pierrot said:

    Pierrot said:

    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image

    Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.

    As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.

    Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
    How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.

    Not many.

    Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so.
    Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so.
    Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.

    You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
  • I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
    I take the point of MPs forming the executive.

    However, I still think the number of MPs is too great. But i am passive about it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited October 2019
    Here we go, off to a good start:

    "The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.

    Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.

    As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."


    Guardian live update @ 21:55
  • I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
    Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
    Things can only get worse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    blueblue said:

    So, it's shit or bust for Boris now.

    That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.

    Job done!

    And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II... :wink:
    No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
    Given how the recent period of minority government has been a dreadful advert, some might vote Tory then rather than have a repeat of the current shit show. No point in voting LibDem to have more of the same.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    I think Boris will be returned with a majority (not a landslide but workable) Labour will get a drubbing. Lib-Dems will make significant gains. BXP will make a handful of gains against Labour and SNP will do well (but perhaps not as well as many think they might)

    But then again I thought Theresa May would get a 100 seat majority in 2017 so what the **** do I know. :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Here we go, off to a good start:

    "The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.

    Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.

    As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."


    Guardian live update @ 21:55

    That's a (presumably ironic) 'good start'? Person who is not an MP but works for an MP was a twat? I hope we get a lot better than that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Pierrot said:

    Pierrot said:

    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image

    Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.

    As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.

    Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
    How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.

    Not many.

    Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so.
    Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so.
    Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.

    You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
    Bashing the Public School pushes is a pretty good core vote strategy in Northern Leave towns, hard for Bozo and Lord Snooty to counter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    I quite like her!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
    Things can only get worse.
    Well not only, but they can always get worse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    blueblue said:

    So, it's shit or bust for Boris now.

    That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.

    Job done!

    And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II... :wink:
    No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
    Given how the recent period of minority government has been a dreadful advert, some might vote Tory then rather than have a repeat of the current shit show. No point in voting LibDem to have more of the same.
    I sense you may have been at the Wishful Thinking bottle again :wink:
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    kle4 said:

    sarissa said:

    So what events do we know about during the campaign?

    - Remembrance Day. Someone will try to trip up Jezza and it might backfire.

    - NATO summit. Trump risk for Boris but based on the telegraph article he’s going to use it to say “the NHS is not for sale”.

    - OBR report. Has to be a major story. There’s probably a BoE forecast due too.

    - GDP numbers?

    - EU summit?

    - What else?

    Candidate refuses to be intimidated by gang of ten-year-olds throwing snowballs?
    Snowballs that early in December?!
    Snow fell in Aviemore this week.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    edited October 2019

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    Hung, perhaps, but also with the parties ideologically cleansed. In that scenario literally nothing could happen. Christ I hope you’re wrong.
    With the DUP against everything possible including extension, and a new unknown speaker, no deal in a new hung parliament will be far more likely than it has been under this parliament.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If you asked me to predict today, I’d guess Con 305, Lab 227 SNP 50 Lib Dems 40 Plaid Cymru 5 Brexit 4 Green 1 NI 18.

    But I wouldn’t bet 20p on that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Here we go, off to a good start:

    "The home secretary’s chief of staff was escorted out of a bar in parliament
    by armed police earlier – just as MPs were voting on an election that Boris Johnson wants to make about law and order.

    Two people who witnessed the incident say James Starkie was ordered out of Strangers bar after swearing loudly in the vicinity of a Tory MP, Col Bob Stewart, being refused service and appearing to punch a door.

    As police escorted him out of the bar, which is frequented by MPs, witnesses said he apologised for his behaviour."


    Guardian live update @ 21:55

    lol - BJ wants to make the election about law and order after his stunt with the letters? I dont think the judge has ruled on that but i dont discount i could have missed it.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    geoffw said:

    A brexiteer economist for BoE guv'nor?

    There aren't any. Not real ones.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Pierrot said:

    Pierrot said:

    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image

    Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.

    As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.

    Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
    How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.

    Nobody cares about private schools.
  • I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
    Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
    Not sure how you cancel it without either Jo Swinson winning a majority on revoke or a referendum
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
    I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....

    Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    There won't be as most voters want Brexit done, last time both Labour and the Tories were promising to get Brexit done, Labour broke that promise while diehard Remainers will not be conned into voting for Corbyn again.

    Boris will also run a populist campaign unlike May with no dementia tax like gaffes
    There’s a fair chunk of voters who wanted Brexit done because they didn’t want to go through the referendum process again. Now, rather than do Brexit, Bozo has gone to a GE and effectively given them the chance to reject Brexit, if they wish. How these Tory remainers fall will be critical to the election outcome.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,054
    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
    No it isn't. Ministers have to resign from the Chamber of Deputies, though they return one month after they resign from their portfolio.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Pulpstar said:

    If push and shove come, what do the Lib Dems do with regards to supply and confidence for either Corbyn or Johnson ?

    I believe the arrangement is termed quid pro quo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019

    If you asked me to predict today, I’d guess Con 305, Lab 227 SNP 50 Lib Dems 40 Plaid Cymru 5 Brexit 4 Green 1 NI 18.

    But I wouldn’t bet 20p on that.

    Con minority government and we're back to the polls in June or October 2020? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Foxy said:

    Pierrot said:

    Pierrot said:

    Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.

    A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.

    Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.

    Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.

    Polling from 2016-17:
    image

    Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.

    As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.

    Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
    How many voters remember what happened at a party conference? If Labour make private schools an issue, the Tories are going to have say something about it. That's the problem. Saying "Labour are stupid about private schools - what do they know about them anyway?" looks terrible. Remember that Labour are going to fight this election on social reform.

    Not many.

    Teachers. Their vote was probably Labour and will remain so.
    Labour members. Their vote was Labour and will remain so.
    Parents of private school kids. Their votes were mixed and will switch away from Labour.

    You are right, no-one else will remember the conference policy or care enough about the issue for it to change their vote.
    Bashing the Public School pushes is a pretty good core vote strategy in Northern Leave towns, hard for Bozo and Lord Snooty to counter.
    No, bashing public schools may work in Islington, Hackney or Liverpool, it will not work in Bassetlaw or Enfield or Stoke
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    What is the position of MPs such as Chris Williamson who are, I think, whipless right now ?
  • I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
    Given this election is a referendum on Brexit, surely Brexit is over if the Tories dont get a majority? Or will they be looking for a best of three losers revote?
    Not sure how you cancel it without either Jo Swinson winning a majority on revoke or a referendum
    Well we would have had two GEs called to give a mandate for Brexit and the people refused to give it. Would be time to move on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If push and shove come, what do the Lib Dems do with regards to supply and confidence for either Corbyn or Johnson ?

    I believe the arrangement is termed quid pro quo.
    It’s hard to see what the Conservatives could offer the Lib Dems now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    But it's the same, the executive is completely separated from the legislature. In the UK, a significant number of MPs are also in the executive, which warrants a larger cohort of backbenchers.
    I take the point of MPs forming the executive.

    However, I still think the number of MPs is too great. But i am passive about it.
    I think a lot of people think it is too high, which is why I doubt many people minded a reduction to 600 outsie of MPs themselves, but the problem with reviews like that, and at lower levels, is it's treated like a science, something clearly measurable, but if there's definitive word on what number works best with what type of system, I've not seen in, and arbitrary decisions on cost grounds can end up prevailing without really assessing if it will work. You see that at local electoral reviews a lot, where there is a presumption that fewer members equals a more efficient governance arrangement, which could be true, but is not guaranteed.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Well the question can easily be turned around, why do they not need 15% more MPs given they have very similar proportions? What is the 'right' number? Any number we pick is going to result in some very arbitrary and unnatural constituencies, so I don't know how one decides how many you need.

    The review should be implemented already. They can do another one later if they want.
    Look to the House of Reprentatives in the US, they only have 435 IIRC with a vastly bigger electorate per seat....
    Yes, but how does that mean their number is right and ours wrong? Whose electorates are better served? Merely seeing that other places, even with larger populations, have smaller legislatures doesn't mean they are better.

    I imagine this issue is played out in american state legislatures, with New Hampshire's lower house being 400 in size, and Nevada's at 40, and then you have Nebraska which is unicameral and officially non partisan (if not in practice).

    Which state has it right? I have no idea.
    Well argued.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    spudgfsh said:


    something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?

    Boundaries are based on electoral rolls rather than the census, aren't they? But as the last review was in 2007, I agree something needs to change. And I've never understood why we need 15% more MPs than France, despite very similar populations.
    Is their executive formed of MPs? I know the president isn’t, but no idea about the cabinet positions.
    No it isn't. Ministers have to resign from the Chamber of Deputies, though they return one month after they resign from their portfolio.
    Interesting! How does that work, does the number of seats vary, or does someone have to give up their seat?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited October 2019
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
    I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....

    Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
    No, it was quite obvious a chunk of Labour MPs wouldn’t have gone down any of those routes, after Bozo came back with his deal. Only the risk of no deal enabled Labour to keep its troops on one side of the field.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited October 2019

    I’m expecting a hung Parliament. The absolute majority who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson will find a way of stopping him.

    There are a lot of people out there who are going to vote and who don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Like last time, they might decide very late on indeed.

    I tend to agree but I believe now it is either Boris wins and we leave on the 31st January or a second referendum takes place next summer
    Or, Johnson will run a minority government before returning to the people for another GE in March.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway.....can we all at least unify on one theme.....Jo Swinson is very annoying indeed.....

    My lifelong Lib Dem mum cannot stand her, and doesn't know who to vote for now.
    As much as Corbyn is repellant to anyone who loves money or the army, and BoJo is repellant to people who have any sense of integrity, morality and fidelity.....

    Swinson is just annoying...shrill and...well just very fucking annoying......
    And without upsettimg you more Tyson, if she had not led the charge for a GE I doubt it would have happened
    I'm not pleased with this election one bit...the numbers in the HoC were there to VoNC, and then install a unifying govt to oversee Brexit- customs union or peoples vote.....

    Because of Swinson we are risking a right wing Brexit or No Deal Brexit....the numbers for the HoC with the Benn Act had already proved that these were off the table....Boris was impotent.....it was just a matter of time before sense prevailed...but Swinson bolted first.....
    The LibDems have proposed a #peoplesvote 8 times in Parliament. Lab whipped against. The numbers were simply never there for a GNU either.

    Corbyn has been the Tories little helper through this whole process.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    If you asked me to predict today, I’d guess Con 305, Lab 227 SNP 50 Lib Dems 40 Plaid Cymru 5 Brexit 4 Green 1 NI 18.

    But I wouldn’t bet 20p on that.

    My sense is either that, or it breaks just right for Boris and he does well. The trouble is those scenarios are really quite different so it gets me nowhere.
This discussion has been closed.