So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.
So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
Even Farage knows that if the Tories lose this GE, then Brexit is gone forever, with a strong likelihood of a socialist government messing up his finances. I suspect Banks has probably come to the same conclusion, and will be reluctant to disintegrate Boris' right flank.
Besides, Brexit was never just about Brexit, it's about the culture war as a whole. And knowing that the people they hate will cry and whine if Boris is elected gives Brexity types a powerful incentive to put a cross in his box no matter what their feelings about his Deal...
Farage is clear the Tory WA is not Brexit. Nothing makes Brexit disappear forever more than fake Brexit being delivered.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
something has to change in the next couple of years. aren't the current boundaries are based on the 2001 census?
Hilarious seeing some of the vitriol aimed at the Lib Dems and SNP across the net .
Without them it’s likely the WAIB would have come back and eventually passed because the extension would have been shorter .
Some Remainers need to wake up to reality , this Parliament will never support a second vote and even if it did who exactly will enact the legislation.
Are we to believe that a GNU would happen and then hold together for long enough to hold the referendum .
As a Remainer the reality is either an election or definite Brexit.
The odds are against us but better to have a small chance than zero .
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.
So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
Even Farage knows that if the Tories lose this GE, then Brexit is gone forever, with a strong likelihood of a socialist government messing up his finances. I suspect Banks has probably come to the same conclusion, and will be reluctant to disintegrate Boris' right flank.
Besides, Brexit was never just about Brexit, it's about the culture war as a whole. And knowing that the people they hate will cry and whine if Boris is elected gives Brexity types a powerful incentive to put a cross in his box no matter what their feelings about his Deal...
Depends on whether Farage is ready for retirement, or is bought off. If he wants to stay relevant he doesn’t actually want Brexit, and needs to make a showing in the GE. He has candidates and money in place in lots of seats and doesn’t strike me as the type to withdraw and say vote Tory.
Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.
Too female?
No Swinson is too partisan to attract Labour switchers. I must say I do think she looks like her position on Brexit is primarily about party gain.
She's taking a fifth to a quarter of GE2017 LAB voters according to the polling
According to the polls reflecting a trend that started before she became leader. The comments pricked my ears I must confess because I find her off putting. She seems to be ultimate partisan Lib Dem.
The worst case scenario for Remain is a government in transition having to deal with the car crash that will be the trade negotiations and an emboldened SNP.
Hilarious seeing some of the vitriol aimed at the Lib Dems and SNP across the net .
Without them it’s likely the WAIB would have come back and eventually passed because the extension would have been shorter .
Some Remainers need to wake up to reality , this Parliament will never support a second vote and even if it did who exactly will enact the legislation.
Are we to believe that a GNU would happen and then hold together for long enough to hold the referendum .
As a Remainer the reality is either an election or definite Brexit.
The odds are against us but better to have a small chance than zero .
The first rule of politics is to count. Very few seemed to realise the arithmetic changed fundamentally when Johnson agreed a deal with the EU. Suddenly VONC, GONU or 2nd ref were no longer achievable as the Tory rebels were only there to stop no deal which was now very unlikely. That is why the LDs and SNP switched.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
Sky News: rumours of Johnson moving to Beaconsfield. Sounds like utter nonsense to me.
He has run from scrutiny and responsibility his whole life. I will be very surprised if he is willing to stand in (outer) London.
Uxbridge voted Leave by a comfortable margin so it isn't very typical of the rest of London.
I think he would comfortably hold it if he stood. I just dont think he will bother with a contestable seat when he can choose a guaranteed one. It is not his style.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
It was a piece of nonsense from Cameron, about 'cutting the cost of government'.
So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.
So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
“This is as good as it gets” isn’t as inspiring as threatening to leave without a deal unless the EU gives way.
That won’t be the message though. Presumably he’s going to go with “once this is all out of the way, through my stunning deal, we can X, Y, and Z”. We’ve been shown the “get Brexit done” slogan but the manifesto will presumably be part two.
Cummings likes to hold his best back for late in the day, but I doubt many will vote Tory because they trust the Tories most to improve the NHS. Many will think with John McEnroe, "You canNOT be serious!" Boris has benefited from being seen to "stand up to Europe", but he may have problems campaigning successfully on his "great deal" of a WAB when Macron and Merkel etc. are unlikely to help him by giving much that he can bravely "stand up" to.
It might fall apart for the blues. It's likely to come down to controlling immigration versus social reform.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
it was virtue signalling by DC. it, in the end, made the new boundaries so unpopular that they'd not be voted in by the opposition parties.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
Supposedly so parliament could make its contribution to the austerity savings. And to satisfy those in the Tories for whom parliament getting too big is another hobby horse.
Possibly the Tories were clever enough to see that shifting the boundaries would hit the LibDems particularly hard, given their reliance on incumbency and local activity; certainly Clegg was too dumb not to see that (until he did).
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
Do we know how many TV debates there will be and who will be on them.
It might be in Boris and Jeremys' interest for it to be just them, so that's all they agree to?
I suspect Boris will agree to whatever, so as not to face the same charge of cowardice as May, and leave it to Corbyn to argue for one of all leaders, but also a one on one with Johnson, so Swinson can kick up a fuss about being excluded from it.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
1. Save money (all be it a small amount in total) 2. Come closer to other western democracy's in the ratio of Parliamentarians to population. ( even is a smaller House of lords would make a bigger difference)
Do we know who normally gets the most Postal votes?
I think the numbers are not meant to be released, but wonder is some of the hard core hacks on here know from experience?
I would have thought if Labor are normally the bigger beneficiary that whatever is sead in public the union will be working the week before the vote.
The Tories have a marginal edge, but not by much. The union will be bought off one way or another; knowing Ward he will extract a healthy price.
The numbers are never released and people who claim to have sampled them are talking nonsense. But if you have done a thorough sample of the polling station votes at verification, you can derive the likely balance of the PVs by comparing your estimate with the final result.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
Few voters give much of a toss about Trump. Trust in the PM?...but voters think "a plague on all your houses" anyway. NHS? Johnson has gone out of his way to say he will throw cash at it. Likewise law and order. Workers rights? Perhaps, but im not so sure...
Do we know how many TV debates there will be and who will be on them.
It might be in Boris and Jeremys' interest for it to be just them, so that's all they agree to?
I suspect Boris will agree to whatever, so as not to face the same charge of cowardice as May, and leave it to Corbyn to argue for one of all leaders, but also a one on one with Johnson, so Swinson can kick up a fuss about being excluded from it.
He was afraid to debate with Gove et al when he was polling 60% in the party in a 5 way contest!
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
It was a piece of nonsense from Cameron, about 'cutting the cost of government'.
Which would actually have the effect of increasing the power of the Executive over the Legislature, by increasing the proportion of MPs on the front bench.
So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.
So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
“This is as good as it gets” isn’t as inspiring as threatening to leave without a deal unless the EU gives way.
That won’t be the message though. Presumably he’s going to go with “once this is all out of the way, through my stunning deal, we can X, Y, and Z”. We’ve been shown the “get Brexit done” slogan but the manifesto will presumably be part two.
Cummings likes to hold his best back for late in the day, but I doubt many will vote Tory because they trust the Tories most to improve the NHS. Many will think with John McEnroe, "You canNOT be serious!" Boris has benefited from being seen to "stand up to Europe", but he may have problems campaigning successfully on his "great deal" of a WAB when Macron and Merkel etc. are unlikely to help him by giving much that he can bravely "stand up" to.
It might fall apart for the blues. It's likely to come down to controlling immigration versus social reform.
Remember that Boris' opponent is a stupid communist who is the most despised opposition leader in history...
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
Few voters give much of a toss about Trump. Trust in the PM?...but voters think "a plague on all your houses" anyway. NHS? Johnson has gone out of his way to say he will throw cash at it. Likewise law and order. Workers rights? Perhaps, but im not so sure...
Trump is related to the NHS and workers rights through the trade deal and will be in the UK the week before the election. He will say something to make the election about him. Bigly.
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
So who has gained or lost by a GE being called now rather than when Boris first tried to get one ?
Labour loses massively - Boris would have had to campaign without having obtained his Deal, which could have gifted Labour the entire Remain bloc in a "Stop No Deal" campaign.
So it turns out Hillary Benn may have saved Boris and the Conservative Party through his attempts to snooker them. Delicious poetic irony if so!
A counter argument is that the Tories will find it harder to enthuse leavers with an actual deal than they would with Brexit on the line and the hardnuts able to imagine their own personal dream deal (or none). And Farage, if he chooses to, can attack the deal from the other flank.
“This is as good as it gets” isn’t as inspiring as threatening to leave without a deal unless the EU gives way.
That won’t be the message though. Presumably he’s going to go with “once this is all out of the way, through my stunning deal, we can X, Y, and Z”. We’ve been shown the “get Brexit done” slogan but the manifesto will presumably be part two.
Cummings likes to hold his best back for late in the day, but I doubt many will vote Tory because they trust the Tories most to improve the NHS. Many will think with John McEnroe, "You canNOT be serious!" Boris has benefited from being seen to "stand up to Europe", but he may have problems campaigning successfully on his "great deal" of a WAB when Macron and Merkel etc. are unlikely to help him by giving much that he can bravely "stand up" to.
It might fall apart for the blues. It's likely to come down to controlling immigration versus social reform.
Do we know how many TV debates there will be and who will be on them.
It might be in Boris and Jeremys' interest for it to be just them, so that's all they agree to?
I suspect Boris will agree to whatever, so as not to face the same charge of cowardice as May, and leave it to Corbyn to argue for one of all leaders, but also a one on one with Johnson, so Swinson can kick up a fuss about being excluded from it.
He was afraid to debate with Gove et al when he was polling 60% in the party in a 5 way contest!
I don't doubt it, but he had a huge advantage with the Members who would vote in that contest, so he could afford to avoid such events. At a GE, particularly when May was excoriated for sending a substitute, and where he is promising to take on Corbyn, I don't think he has the same leeway. May not showing up to the debates was one of the few things that seemed to break through for the more stubbornly non political of my acquaintance.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Do we know how many TV debates there will be and who will be on them.
It might be in Boris and Jeremys' interest for it to be just them, so that's all they agree to?
I suspect Boris will agree to whatever, so as not to face the same charge of cowardice as May, and leave it to Corbyn to argue for one of all leaders, but also a one on one with Johnson, so Swinson can kick up a fuss about being excluded from it.
He was afraid to debate with Gove et al when he was polling 60% in the party in a 5 way contest!
I don't doubt it, but he had a huge advantage with the Members who would vote in that contest, so he could afford to avoid such events. At a GE, particularly when May was excoriated for sending a substitute, and where he is promising to take on Corbyn, I don't think he has the same leeway. May not showing up to the debates was one of the few things that seemed to break through for the more stubbornly non political of my acquaintance.
Yep. Strong and stable whilst hiding behind the sofa didn’t compute.
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
Not sure exactly how sitting days are counted, but if we include the day of the state opening on the 14th, then the days for which there are order papers currently number 11. With tomorrow, Thursday and probably Monday and Tuesday, we would then have a total of 15 days in this Parliamentary session.
The next shortest sessions are both of 60 sitting days. In 1973-4 before the February general election and in 2009-10 before the May general election.
It's generally been quite normal to have a short session before a spring election and a long session afterwards, as traditionally the new Parliamentary session has begun in the autumn, but the Coalition had sought to change that by moving the state opening to the spring. Perhaps the next government will try to re-establish that with a session that lasts through to spring 2021, but that will depend on the election result.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
Few voters give much of a toss about Trump. Trust in the PM?...but voters think "a plague on all your houses" anyway. NHS? Johnson has gone out of his way to say he will throw cash at it. Likewise law and order. Workers rights? Perhaps, but im not so sure...
Trump is related to the NHS and workers rights through the trade deal and will be in the UK the week before the election. He will say something to make the election about him. Bigly.
The public will not vote for a British PM based on their views or otherwise of a US President.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
It’s got better now that you can take your PV to the polling station on the day. Indeed a fair few voters seem to like doing it that way.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Who are the Labour faithful? If Corbyn keeps the 40% he scored in 2017 he'll be in Downing Street.
Out of interest where do you think the youth vote will go?
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
There's what's said before an election, and what's said afterwards...
Let's suppose this election returns exactly the same result as GE2010 (not all that unlikely a supposition, as it happens!). Who becomes Prime Minister? Not Jeremy Corbyn...
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
Same here, but it is not that easy when one is 700 miles away.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
You let your prejudices show.
Swinson has specifically said she will not go into coalition with Corbyn. Has she said that about Johnson?
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
Not sure exactly how sitting days are counted, but if we include the day of the state opening on the 14th, then the days for which there are order papers currently number 11. With tomorrow, Thursday and probably Monday and Tuesday, we would then have a total of 15 days in this Parliamentary session.
The next shortest sessions are both of 60 sitting days. In 1973-4 before the February general election and in 2009-10 before the May general election.
It's generally been quite normal to have a short session before a spring election and a long session afterwards, as traditionally the new Parliamentary session has begun in the autumn, but the Coalition had sought to change that by moving the state opening to the spring. Perhaps the next government will try to re-establish that with a session that lasts through to spring 2021, but that will depend on the election result.
If the Tories win, do they absolutely have to have another QS? Rather than continue the current session?
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
You let your prejudices show.
Swinson has specifically said she will not go into coalition with Corbyn. Has she said that about Johnson?
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
Possibly the UUP or Brexit Party, Assuming they get seats, which I think they will.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
Regarding boundaries, I would expect Boris to tell the commission to start again (possibly with new rules). He has a strong personal motivation to get rid of the current proposals as Uxbridge would lose Yiewsley to H&H and gain Northolt from Ealing North, flipping the seat to Lab.
If the Cons have a good election in Wales, Boris could even keep the 650 seats and Wales over-representation.
It makes sense to start again anyway as there have been council mergers e.g. Poole and major ward boundary changes e.g. Birmingham.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
My sister is there right now, they visited a tomato greenhouse on Sunday, but that might be a bit too racy for you!
Besides that they've been swimming in hot springs, seeing the continental rift, and taken around by guides to see the sites and learn about Icelandic folklore. The did go out on a boat at night and saw the northern lights which have been visible the last few days.
Johnson's strategy is essentially the same as May's in 2017: rely on a party led by Nigel Farage to win votes that would otherwise be Labour.
A Gillian Duffy moment for the PM, or a scandal to hit either of them, or if Nige doesn't put his back into it, and it's over.
Boris is weak on the private schools. What has he got? 1. They save the country billions of pounds. 2. Labour's opposition to them is old-fashioned. I wonder how those will play.
Corbyn is not a strong leader but he is more at home than Michael Foot was speaking with ordinary people. This is going to be a two-party race.
Polling from 2016-17:
Private schools are an utter irrelevance. Red meat to Labour faithful but striking few chords in the wider country. Indeed some polls show a decent majority opposed to Labour's plans.
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Agreed, private schools are irrelevant, probably a vote loser for Labour given their conference policy shambles.
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
Few voters give much of a toss about Trump. Trust in the PM?...but voters think "a plague on all your houses" anyway. NHS? Johnson has gone out of his way to say he will throw cash at it. Likewise law and order. Workers rights? Perhaps, but im not so sure...
Trump is related to the NHS and workers rights through the trade deal and will be in the UK the week before the election. He will say something to make the election about him. Bigly.
The public will not vote for a British PM based on their views or otherwise of a US President.
That is fantasy-land im afraid.
Most people are already decided. In swing Lab-Tory marginals the NHS is Labours best card. Spend the time linking Trump to NHS and wait for him to say something controversial and unhelpful to the Tories when in London. The man cannot help himself.
I'm not so sure, Mike. All Boris has to do is to offer to revoke A50 and agree to STV without a referendum and I think Jo might be willing to have a word.
I'm sure the Tories would happily sell their souls to remain in office.
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
Yes, it used to be a big Tory edge, and I think it still slightly favours them, but both parties are now pretty good at getting their base to vote by post so they can concentrate on the rest.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
Why’s that? When you broke bread with them last time you said it was a tremendous success.
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
Not sure exactly how sitting days are counted, but if we include the day of the state opening on the 14th, then the days for which there are order papers currently number 11. With tomorrow, Thursday and probably Monday and Tuesday, we would then have a total of 15 days in this Parliamentary session.
The next shortest sessions are both of 60 sitting days. In 1973-4 before the February general election and in 2009-10 before the May general election.
It's generally been quite normal to have a short session before a spring election and a long session afterwards, as traditionally the new Parliamentary session has begun in the autumn, but the Coalition had sought to change that by moving the state opening to the spring. Perhaps the next government will try to re-establish that with a session that lasts through to spring 2021, but that will depend on the election result.
If the Tories win, do they absolutely have to have another QS? Rather than continue the current session?
Parliament will be dissolved. No way to continue the existing session.
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
was that with a kings speech?
I assume it would have had to have been, but from what little I know of the situation - that it was to force through a new Parliament Act - I expect it was a very short King's Speech suited for that purpose, rather than the absurd manifesto that the Queen was recently asked to read out that there was seemingly little intention of trying to implement in this session.
The Conservatives would have to exceed their normal levels of disconcerting ineptitude to lose this election.
Evening Stodge. For once I hope you are right.
To clarify I don't mean for once I hope you are right because you are normally wrong or anything like that. But for once I hope the Tories get a majority as it will secure Brexit. At any other time I would be very happy to see all three main parties crash and burn.
My problem is I find it impossible to read these things. I honestly have no idea at all whether Johnson will get a majority or not. So your assurances are comforting.
That's what it was _always_ going to be at this stage. All Boris has to do is push a simple set of messages: give me a majority to get my Deal passed, Corbyn is a fence-sitting mess who will drag the painful process out for years, and oh here's a shower of populist giveaways that would embarrass a Momentumite.
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
No party will go into coalition with the Tories.
You let your prejudices show.
Swinson has specifically said she will not go into coalition with Corbyn. Has she said that about Johnson?
Yes
Upon checking i see she did. Apologies - i stand corrected.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
I'm not so sure, Mike. All Boris has to do is to offer to revoke A50 and agree to STV without a referendum and I think Jo might be willing to have a word.
I'm sure the Tories would happily sell their souls to remain in office.
Aha, so you do admit they have souls to sell at least!
When it comes to having a good soul, I always say its important to get a good price for it.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
1. Save money (all be it a small amount in total) 2. Come closer to other western democracy's in the ratio of Parliamentarians to population. ( even is a smaller House of lords would make a bigger difference)
One good reason for me was that since Parliament has currently become such a rubber stamp for EU legislation there was no reason to have as many of the lazy buggers sitting around making the place look a mess.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
My sister is there right now, they visited a tomato greenhouse on Sunday, but that might be a bit too racy for you!
Besides that they've been swimming in hot springs, seeing the continental rift, and taken around by guides to see the sites and learn about Icelandic folklore. The did go out on a boat at night and saw the northern lights which have been visible the last few days.
They serve an award-winning Bloody Mary at that tomato farm.
Given that we'd only just started a new parliamentary session a few days ago with a new Queen's speech, with dissolution next week does that make this the shortest parliamentary session ever, or is there some weirder thing that happened previously?
Didn’t they have a few quick ones for the passing of the Parliament Act?
The shortest was a 10-day session in 1948. Not sure how many days this one will add up to, but I'm pretty sure it's more than that.
Not sure exactly how sitting days are counted, but if we include the day of the state opening on the 14th, then the days for which there are order papers currently number 11. With tomorrow, Thursday and probably Monday and Tuesday, we would then have a total of 15 days in this Parliamentary session.
The next shortest sessions are both of 60 sitting days. In 1973-4 before the February general election and in 2009-10 before the May general election.
It's generally been quite normal to have a short session before a spring election and a long session afterwards, as traditionally the new Parliamentary session has begun in the autumn, but the Coalition had sought to change that by moving the state opening to the spring. Perhaps the next government will try to re-establish that with a session that lasts through to spring 2021, but that will depend on the election result.
If the Tories win, do they absolutely have to have another QS? Rather than continue the current session?
Yes, they do. It's a new Parliament and a new session.
Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
A Royal Mail strike?
The royal mail union on strike buggering up Labour's postal vote operation would be delicious
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
I'm part of that weird (dying?) breed that actually likes to go into the polling station and secretly put a cross in a box.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
Provided it is postmarked before polling day a postal vote still counts even if it arrives after polls closed. We could be in a Florida 2000 situation in some marginals as a result if the strike goes ahead (though the Government will try for an injunction to stop it).
I don’t think that’s true. Once the RO reads the declaration, that result can only be overturned in court, even if people spot a mistake when packing away (as has happened)
I will be quite interested to see what, if anything, the Brexit Party put in their manifesto. The most recent ones from UKIP before it went down its current path actually had quite a focus on non Brexit matters, with prominent highlighting of non Farage figures in the party.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
My sister is there right now, they visited a tomato greenhouse on Sunday, but that might be a bit too racy for you!
Besides that they've been swimming in hot springs, seeing the continental rift, and taken around by guides to see the sites and learn about Icelandic folklore. The did go out on a boat at night and saw the northern lights which have been visible the last few days.
They serve an award-winning Bloody Mary at that tomato farm.
My nephew's too young for that, but he did have a tomato tea, which he said was quite nice.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Is that where they study ... Comparative Phallology?
Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, of course, are overwhelmingly Tory.
That’s a bit of a myth. Students and ethnic minorities are also heavy users, and in seats with active campaigns the parties try to sign up as many of their voters as possible, as getting a PV pushes turnout up from 60% to 80%, and it leaves fewer people to chase on polling day.
Yes, it used to be a big Tory edge, and I think it still slightly favours them, but both parties are now pretty good at getting their base to vote by post so they can concentrate on the rest.
A regrettable trend. People fought for a secret ballot.
Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
1. Two year parliaments. Another Americanism coming over here.
2. Another election on the old boundaries. The folk at the boundary commission must be close to jumping off the window ledge.
I do expect a BJ majority government to vote the new boundaries through. once that's happened once it'll be less controversial in following years
If they have a majority and a full term it would be more appropriate to task the commission with starting again.
It's a possibility but it'd be simpler to do it early and let the dust settle before another election. that being said any other kind of government would do nothing.
Lots of Tories don’t like the new boundaries - the reduction in seats coupled with the inflexible criteria threw up some weird constituencies, and in private many Tories admit the ToR for the review were misjudged. The end of austerity and Brexit give the perfect excuse to stick with 650 and handing the commission the task of redoing the review with more sensible rules.
I never understood what the reason for the reduction to 600 was.
1. Save money (all be it a small amount in total) 2. Come closer to other western democracy's in the ratio of Parliamentarians to population. ( even is a smaller House of lords would make a bigger difference)
One good reason for me was that since Parliament has currently become such a rubber stamp for EU legislation there was no reason to have as many of the lazy buggers sitting around making the place look a mess.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
Definitely go to one of the thermal pools. The Blue Lagoon, about halfway between the airport and the city, is the most famous, and I understand has to be pre-booked these days, but there are others. Go even if it’s raining, the feeling of being immersed to the neck in warm water while it rains on your face is much much nicer than you’d imagine.
The Conservatives would have to exceed their normal levels of disconcerting ineptitude to lose this election.
Evening Stodge. For once I hope you are right.
To clarify I don't mean for once I hope you are right because you are normally wrong or anything like that. But for once I hope the Tories get a majority as it will secure Brexit. At any other time I would be very happy to see all three main parties crash and burn.
My problem is I find it impossible to read these things. I honestly have no idea at all whether Johnson will get a majority or not. So your assurances are comforting.
We can all see the polls and models available. There is no particular reason we should be able to read what will happen beyond that, there are too many unknowables, some of which are events yet to happen.
That doesnt mean there are not people who believe they really can tell what will happen. It is far more likely that that is down to human biases and heuristics than their confidence being well placed.
OT Going to Iceland tomorrow. Any recommendations?
If you've got time, a trip across the south coast to jökulsárlón glacier is fantastic.
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
Thank you. Got Golden Circle, whales and Northern Lights booked although looks like rain. Will check out glacier and coffee shop.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
Any fuckwit tourist eating whale meat should be taken out and shot.
If push and shove come, what do the Lib Dems do with regards to supply and confidence for either Corbyn or Johnson ?
Freeze in terror.
If they are absolutely essential to anyone surviving as a government, and are too afraid to trigger another snap election, then in exchange for a massive price I guess they might back someone's QS and then refuse to cooperate on anything else without another massive price. But they seem petrified of having to make such a choice and will avoid the question you raise for 6 weeks.
Comments
It might be in Boris and Jeremys' interest for it to be just them, so that's all they agree to?
As for 2017 comparisons...again these are largely irrelevant. Corbyn then was a blank canvas, hoovering up the youth and the remain vote. That seems very unlikely to happen this time.
Without them it’s likely the WAIB would have come back and eventually passed because the extension would have been shorter .
Some Remainers need to wake up to reality , this Parliament will never support a second vote and even if it did who exactly will enact the legislation.
Are we to believe that a GNU would happen and then hold together for long enough to hold the referendum .
As a Remainer the reality is either an election or definite Brexit.
The odds are against us but better to have a small chance than zero .
Attack lines that will work for Labour on the Tories - NHS, Trump, trust in the PM, austerity, workers rights
Job done!
And if not, well, there's always Coalition Mark II...
Do we know who normally gets the most Postal votes?
I think the numbers are not meant to be released, but wonder is some of the hard core hacks on here know from experience?
I would have thought if Labor are normally the bigger beneficiary that whatever is sead in public the union will be working the week before the vote.
It might fall apart for the blues. It's likely to come down to controlling immigration versus social reform. Then they both need to challenge each other and call the other chicken - while having somebody explain some basic game theory to them.
Possibly the Tories were clever enough to see that shifting the boundaries would hit the LibDems particularly hard, given their reliance on incumbency and local activity; certainly Clegg was too dumb not to see that (until he did).
2. Come closer to other western democracy's in the ratio of Parliamentarians to population. ( even is a smaller House of lords would make a bigger difference)
The Tories have a marginal edge, but not by much. The union will be bought off one way or another; knowing Ward he will extract a healthy price.
The numbers are never released and people who claim to have sampled them are talking nonsense. But if you have done a thorough sample of the polling station votes at verification, you can derive the likely balance of the PVs by comparing your estimate with the final result.
Trust in the PM?...but voters think "a plague on all your houses" anyway.
NHS? Johnson has gone out of his way to say he will throw cash at it. Likewise law and order.
Workers rights? Perhaps, but im not so sure...
Who are they?
Golden Circle, whale watching trips out to sea from Reykjavík are fun. Northern Lights chasing trips are easy to get onto.
Reykjavík is small and very walkable. There is a great coffee shop on Skólavörðustígur, called Mokka, straight off the main street - good waffles.
#ReasonsToBeOptimistic
PS CS I admire how you detach your personal party political bias from your betting position. Very impressive and very hard to do.
The Conservatives would have to exceed their normal levels of disconcerting ineptitude to lose this election.
Edit - from the Tories. Alongside the NHS and rail stuff, that’s one they want to neutralise as best they can.
I was once involved in shredding late postal votes from a general election. Surprising how many there were. What was interesting was how the electoral officer wanted us to waste time doing that rather than put them straight into the locked bins as they had arrived.
The next shortest sessions are both of 60 sitting days. In 1973-4 before the February general election and in 2009-10 before the May general election.
It's generally been quite normal to have a short session before a spring election and a long session afterwards, as traditionally the new Parliamentary session has begun in the autumn, but the Coalition had sought to change that by moving the state opening to the spring. Perhaps the next government will try to re-establish that with a session that lasts through to spring 2021, but that will depend on the election result.
That is fantasy-land im afraid.
Out of interest where do you think the youth vote will go?
Let's suppose this election returns exactly the same result as GE2010 (not all that unlikely a supposition, as it happens!). Who becomes Prime Minister? Not Jeremy Corbyn...
Swinson has specifically said she will not go into coalition with Corbyn. Has she said that about Johnson?
If the Cons have a good election in Wales, Boris could even keep the 650 seats and Wales over-representation.
It makes sense to start again anyway as there have been council mergers e.g. Poole and major ward boundary changes e.g. Birmingham.
Besides that they've been swimming in hot springs, seeing the continental rift, and taken around by guides to see the sites and learn about Icelandic folklore. The did go out on a boat at night and saw the northern lights which have been visible the last few days.
I'm a foodie, but the Icelandic food looks decidedly dodgy particularly as I am not a fish fan. I suspect gulls and puffins also taste of fish.
I'm sure the Tories would happily sell their souls to remain in office.
To clarify I don't mean for once I hope you are right because you are normally wrong or anything like that. But for once I hope the Tories get a majority as it will secure Brexit. At any other time I would be very happy to see all three main parties crash and burn.
My problem is I find it impossible to read these things. I honestly have no idea at all whether Johnson will get a majority or not. So your assurances are comforting.
The Phallological museum has to be seen to be believed.
On the food front, I recommend the tasting menu at Laekjabrekka - not cheap but gives you all the weird shit - puffin, whale, fermented shark etc. - in manageably small quantities. Preferable to ordering something unusual and then feeling cheated and disappointed when you actually tuck in.
When it comes to having a good soul, I always say its important to get a good price for it.
Everyone tends to go here, as well:
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g189970-d1852122-r472494233-Baejarins_Beztu_Pylsur-Reykjavik_Capital_Region.html
Food is pretty standard, quite seafood heavy as you would expect. The Laudromat Cafe in the centre is quite good. I also had a great Sunday brunch at Bergson Mathús.
That doesnt mean there are not people who believe they really can tell what will happen. It is far more likely that that is down to human biases and heuristics than their confidence being well placed.
Night all.
If they are absolutely essential to anyone surviving as a government, and are too afraid to trigger another snap election, then in exchange for a massive price I guess they might back someone's QS and then refuse to cooperate on anything else without another massive price. But they seem petrified of having to make such a choice and will avoid the question you raise for 6 weeks.