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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Extraordinary – Hillary Clinton now FIFTH favourite in the bet

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  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Boris? Revoke??
    MPs? Revoke?

    I can always hope....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    PaulM said:

    ydoethur said:

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    Clearly not :smiley:

    More seriously, how on Earth are people still dumb enough to be betting on Clinton as a possible nominee? I’ve a better chance of becoming President than she has and the constitution would have to be changed first!
    Wall St Democratic megadonors really don't want Elizabeth Warren to be President. If Biden blows up (as seems distinctly possible) they need a Plan B.
    Hillary by name recognition can easily get the polling to get in the debates and can easily get the fundraising. She has many faults, but who else are they going to get at short notice to be a competitive not-Warren candidate ?

    I don't think she'd win either, but there is a price where she is value
    If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, I predict Trump will get the biggest support of any presidential candidate from Wall Street since Reagan in 1984 against Mondale
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    The transition period will likely be extended until December 2022 to continue FTA negotiations if needed if the Tories have a majority by then and have passed the Withdrawal Agreement
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining No Deal turned out to be a disaster only because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so, on past form.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining that the disaster of No Deal was entirely because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so. on past form.
    There is an inexhaustible supply of people to blame, but themselves.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    AndyJS said:

    "France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/growing-risk-of-no-deal-in-six-days-after-macron-blocks-brexit-extension-h5fxtprqr

    I think France is right on this. We can't just have endless extensions.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    PaulM said:

    ydoethur said:

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    Clearly not :smiley:

    More seriously, how on Earth are people still dumb enough to be betting on Clinton as a possible nominee? I’ve a better chance of becoming President than she has and the constitution would have to be changed first!
    Wall St Democratic megadonors really don't want Elizabeth Warren to be President. If Biden blows up (as seems distinctly possible) they need a Plan B.
    Hillary by name recognition can easily get the polling to get in the debates and can easily get the fundraising. She has many faults, but who else are they going to get at short notice to be a competitive not-Warren candidate ?

    I don't think she'd win either, but there is a price where she is value
    There's a price where anything is value. However this is not it.

    If Biden explodes there are plenty of capable candidates in this race who are actually running: Buttigieg, Booker, Harris KLOBUCHAR. These candidates also have the benefit that their claim to be able to beat Trump (which is most of Biden's current appeal) has not been empirically disproven.

    In the absence of Biden his support would move itself to one or two of these candidates, so the lizard people wouldn't even need to do anything except fund that person.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/growing-risk-of-no-deal-in-six-days-after-macron-blocks-brexit-extension-h5fxtprqr

    I think France is right on this. We can't just have endless extensions.
    Maybe Boris could use this to persuade MPs to vote for an election on Monday.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining that the disaster of No Deal was entirely because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so. on past form.
    There is an inexhaustible supply of people to blame, but themselves.
    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining that the disaster of No Deal was entirely because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so. on past form.
    There is an inexhaustible supply of people to blame, but themselves.
    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.
    I disagree. The government MPs who failed to support their own side are uniquely to blame. Yes, that means you Boris,
  • Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    If Corbyn stood down and Thornberry became LOTO, Brexit would be dead.

    I don't know why everyone rates Thornberry. Everyone used to say Harman came across as hectoring but I found her down to Earth. Thornberry seems to look down her nose and roll her eyes at everyone. And the England flag controversy just seemed to confirm that.
    If some tosser next to your house covered his home top to toe in England flags outside a tournament I dare say either you, your wife, or both would be pissed off about it. All Thornberry did was draw attention to the inconsiderate dickhead that did it. Get over it.
    I am a liberal. Other people can decorate their houses however they please as long as it is not indecent. I prefer a few flags than some of the hideous modern architecture approved by the council.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Jonathan said:


    I disagree. The government MPs who failed to support their own side are uniquely to blame. Yes, that means you Boris,

    The final arbiter of blame will be the electorate at the next GE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    You'd have thought being this close to the brink would make MPs come to their senses and at least pass a bloody election if they don't want to ratify Boris' "glorious" deal !

    You can yak on about being bullied and not trusting Boris etc etc but if a gun's being pointed to your head at some point you need to hand over the lunch money.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Gabs2 said:

    If Corbyn stood down and Thornberry became LOTO, Brexit would be dead.

    I don't know why everyone rates Thornberry. Everyone used to say Harman came across as hectoring but I found her down to Earth. Thornberry seems to look down her nose and roll her eyes at everyone. And the England flag controversy just seemed to confirm that.
    Does "everyone rate" ET? In my bubble, "everyone hates" her.
    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    FPT

    I was charmed by the NickPalmer's realisation that you can find "manipulative characters" in the insurance industry :D

    sirclive said:



    Martin Lewis "the money saving expert" advises to renew car insurance 21 days before the due date as people who leave it until later are charged more apparently. Maybe too late for this renewal but next year it may mean a lower price. Apparently the same dynamic works for house insurance as well.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/tips/01-08-2018

    Very easy to check - just alter the start date on the comparison site and run the various quotes.
    Have my doubts about this, more pertinent is the fact that premiums change on a frequent(weekly?) basis.
    Interesting. Certainly it's a jungle full of manipulative characters.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining that the disaster of No Deal was entirely because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so. on past form.
    There is an inexhaustible supply of people to blame, but themselves.
    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.
    I disagree. The government MPs who failed to support their own side are uniquely to blame. Yes, that means you Boris,
    This line of argument was always weak, but it especially weak now Boris, Rees-Mogg and others have supported two of the four exit attempts. Those that have voted against all four deals are the guilty ones.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    I haven't been paying much attention since last weekend, but whatever happened to Boris resigning rather than sending the surrender letter as we were assured he would do on more than one occasion by posters here? He seems to have found a very shallow ditch to lie in as well, given there's no chance of a Halloween Brexit now.

    If Corbyn wasn't playing silly buggers and was a competent leader we'd have resolved this mess one way or the other by now already. Theresa and Boris are both very lucky to have come up against such a useless LotO.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    SunnyJim said:

    Jonathan said:


    I disagree. The government MPs who failed to support their own side are uniquely to blame. Yes, that means you Boris,

    The final arbiter of blame will be the electorate at the next GE.
    Eh?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
    God I can see that, if it rains, it'll be down to Brexit. Remoaners are pathetic.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    kle4 said:

    @yanisvaroufakis having a go at LibDems. "They have abandoned Liberalism"

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1187480582458138634

    Pretty sure every party, even the truly terrible ones, have interest inbuilding a better society. They just disagree on what that means.

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    I tried that once. Awful, it was.
    I've read a couple of books by Richard O'Brien Yanis Varoufakis and I've never found him to be convincing at arguing a point. There are times when he's saying things I want to believe but he still fails to win me over. This short clip about liberalism, I'm afraid, tells us very little.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    Foxy said:

    OGH's OP: What’s extraordinary about the current betting is that four of the top five are in their seventies (Hillary is 72 tomorrow)

    If age does become an issue, it may dish all of the front-runners simultaneously. For that reason, I'd keep a weather eye on those lower down the list. Age probably won't be an issue, it wasn't with Reagan, Trump or Hillary, and Bernie Sanders has recovered from his dicky heart, so now is not the time to charge in head-down but I'd be wary of laying the rags in case they do suddenly come back into play.

    It is not just age, but rather perceived age. Bizzie Lizzie just fizzes with energy. She really doesn't look old.
    She looks 25 years younger than Bernie Sanders.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The EU briefings are getting as bad as the guff that comes out of no 10.

    The pressure will ramp up over the weekend which is designed to force MPs into a choice .

    Macron is playing bad cop and trying to help Johnson force either a quick ratification of the deal or an election .

    Both he sees as the best way to end the saga . Quick ratification or a likely Tory majority to implement the deal .

    Let’s be honest if there’s no election and no ratification this drama will limp on into January , unless an election is called this week it’s then too late until after January, which means the EU will then be faced with another extension.

    Labour Remainers and the rest of the opposition who want another vote have now a choice either back an election or see a short extension and be forced to ratify a deal they hate.

    Make no mistake Macrons current isolated position won’t be that isolated come Monday if an election isn’t called .

    Because at that point other EU members who are currently siding with the longer extension will start peeling away , realizing that the longer extension will just see more stalemate .

    There’s no great love to see the UK remain in the EU anymore , a few countries still harbour this view but the majority just want to move on .

    Talk of Macron vetoing an extension is however a complete nonsense , his plans for EU reform will need bridges to be built not burnt to the ground .

    And he really doesn’t want to be blamed for throwing Ireland under the bus and the economic harm a no deal would cause especially to those countries he’ll need onside.

    So an extension will be granted but a second vote is likely to be finally laid to rest if the end outcome is a shorter extension .

    If Remainer MPs want a second chance they need to vote for the election. If not then we can assume that when push comes to shove they were more worried about their seats than some principled stand , I don’t say this lightly as an ardent Remainer but that I’m afraid is the natural conclusion.

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/growing-risk-of-no-deal-in-six-days-after-macron-blocks-brexit-extension-h5fxtprqr

    I think France is right on this. We can't just have endless extensions.
    It would be rather ironic if Macron of all people finally delivered Brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    @yanisvaroufakis having a go at LibDems. "They have abandoned Liberalism"

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1187480582458138634

    Pretty sure every party, even the truly terrible ones, have interest inbuilding a better society. They just disagree on what that means.

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    I tried that once. Awful, it was.
    I've read a couple of books by Richard O'Brien Yanis Varoufakis and I've never found him to be convincing at arguing a point. There are times when he's saying things I want to believe but he still fails to win me over. This short clip about liberalism, I'm afraid, tells us very little.
    I have a friend who was at the IMF when Greece was negotiating the bailout. There were shouting matches about debt forgiveness, and he genuinely didn't appear to understand that when you wrote off a debt, you wrote off somebody's asset.

    On the positive side, he did a lot of the work on randomising loot boxes and what the mathematics need to be to extract maximum money from kids.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    Only if the EU tries to negotiate in bad faith.

    Nobody has given an answer on how we prevent them doing that.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    God I can see that, if it rains, it'll be down to Brexit. Remoaners are pathetic.

    I thought we voted for snow?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Pulpstar said:

    You'd have thought being this close to the brink would make MPs come to their senses and at least pass a bloody election if they don't want to ratify Boris' "glorious" deal !

    You can yak on about being bullied and not trusting Boris etc etc but if a gun's being pointed to your head at some point you need to hand over the lunch money.

    I find it astounding that remainer MPs who are vulnerable at the next GE won't vote for the WAB as is.

    There is no benefit to them pressing on resisting the deal when they are going to have a very difficult time holding their seats if a GE occurs before exit.

    If they vote the deal through then they can go in to an election on a domestic policy platform which will be undoubtedly more fruitful for them.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    Only if the EU tries to negotiate in bad faith.

    Nobody has given an answer on how we prevent them doing that.
    We could cunningly destroy their negotiating tactics by revoking A50 and remaining.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    Only if the EU tries to negotiate in bad faith.

    Nobody has given an answer on how we prevent them doing that.
    I find the best way to approach all negotiations is remember it's not about you, it's about them. And to ask yourself what they want.

    I think the EU's behaviour throughout this process has been pretty explicable if you've done that.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    rcs1000 said:

    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    @yanisvaroufakis having a go at LibDems. "They have abandoned Liberalism"

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1187480582458138634

    Pretty sure every party, even the truly terrible ones, have interest inbuilding a better society. They just disagree on what that means.

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    I tried that once. Awful, it was.
    I've read a couple of books by Richard O'Brien Yanis Varoufakis and I've never found him to be convincing at arguing a point. There are times when he's saying things I want to believe but he still fails to win me over. This short clip about liberalism, I'm afraid, tells us very little.
    I have a friend who was at the IMF when Greece was negotiating the bailout. There were shouting matches about debt forgiveness, and he genuinely didn't appear to understand that when you wrote off a debt, you wrote off somebody's asset.

    On the positive side, he did a lot of the work on randomising loot boxes and what the mathematics need to be to extract maximum money from kids.
    "he genuinely didn't appear to understand that when you wrote off a debt, you wrote off somebody's asset." That's socialism for you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    nico67 said:

    The EU briefings are getting as bad as the guff that comes out of no 10.

    The pressure will ramp up over the weekend which is designed to force MPs into a choice .

    Macron is playing bad cop and trying to help Johnson force either a quick ratification of the deal or an election .

    Both he sees as the best way to end the saga . Quick ratification or a likely Tory majority to implement the deal .

    Let’s be honest if there’s no election and no ratification this drama will limp on into January , unless an election is called this week it’s then too late until after January, which means the EU will then be faced with another extension.

    Labour Remainers and the rest of the opposition who want another vote have now a choice either back an election or see a short extension and be forced to ratify a deal they hate.

    Make no mistake Macrons current isolated position won’t be that isolated come Monday if an election isn’t called .

    Because at that point other EU members who are currently siding with the longer extension will start peeling away , realizing that the longer extension will just see more stalemate .

    There’s no great love to see the UK remain in the EU anymore , a few countries still harbour this view but the majority just want to move on .

    Talk of Macron vetoing an extension is however a complete nonsense , his plans for EU reform will need bridges to be built not burnt to the ground .

    And he really doesn’t want to be blamed for throwing Ireland under the bus and the economic harm a no deal would cause especially to those countries he’ll need onside.

    So an extension will be granted but a second vote is likely to be finally laid to rest if the end outcome is a shorter extension .

    If Remainer MPs want a second chance they need to vote for the election. If not then we can assume that when push comes to shove they were more worried about their seats than some principled stand , I don’t say this lightly as an ardent Remainer but that I’m afraid is the natural conclusion.

    Yes, Macron is bluffing this time but it's not a straight bluff - it's a bluff designed to win support if the UK does not go for an election.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Noo said:

    God I can see that, if it rains, it'll be down to Brexit. Remoaners are pathetic.

    I thought we voted for snow?
    Christmas is coming but there's still time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    OGH's OP: What’s extraordinary about the current betting is that four of the top five are in their seventies (Hillary is 72 tomorrow)

    If age does become an issue, it may dish all of the front-runners simultaneously. For that reason, I'd keep a weather eye on those lower down the list. Age probably won't be an issue, it wasn't with Reagan, Trump or Hillary, and Bernie Sanders has recovered from his dicky heart, so now is not the time to charge in head-down but I'd be wary of laying the rags in case they do suddenly come back into play.

    It is not just age, but rather perceived age. Bizzie Lizzie just fizzes with energy. She really doesn't look old.
    She looks 25 years younger than Bernie Sanders.
    I saw an interview with a woman that worked with her at Harvard, who asked her why she never drank coffee. Warren's response was "Can you imagine me on caffeine?!?"
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    PaulM said:

    ydoethur said:

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    Clearly not :smiley:

    More seriously, how on Earth are people still dumb enough to be betting on Clinton as a possible nominee? I’ve a better chance of becoming President than she has and the constitution would have to be changed first!
    Wall St Democratic megadonors really don't want Elizabeth Warren to be President. If Biden blows up (as seems distinctly possible) they need a Plan B.
    Hillary by name recognition can easily get the polling to get in the debates and can easily get the fundraising. She has many faults, but who else are they going to get at short notice to be a competitive not-Warren candidate ?

    I don't think she'd win either, but there is a price where she is value
    There's a price where anything is value. However this is not it.

    If Biden explodes there are plenty of capable candidates in this race who are actually running: Buttigieg, Booker, Harris KLOBUCHAR. These candidates also have the benefit that their claim to be able to beat Trump (which is most of Biden's current appeal) has not been empirically disproven.

    In the absence of Biden his support would move itself to one or two of these candidates, so the lizard people wouldn't even need to do anything except fund that person.
    Depends on the timing. Booker is currently at 1% and if things don't pick up will run out of funds before any Biden implosion. Hillary would immediately be at double digits if she got in. The talk of Hillary is precisely because Booker/Harris/Klobuchar haven't set the heather blazing thus far.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If we do end up leaving with No Deal

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Revoke is the sensible move next week.

    Take back control.

    Theres no majority for revoke in this Parliament.

    It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
    This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.

    At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.

    But it is one or the other guys.
    The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
    Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
    Only if the EU tries to negotiate in bad faith.

    Nobody has given an answer on how we prevent them doing that.
    I find the best way to approach all negotiations is remember it's not about you, it's about them. And to ask yourself what they want.
    But that breaks down with Corbyn......
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    The EU briefings are getting as bad as the guff that comes out of no 10.

    The pressure will ramp up over the weekend which is designed to force MPs into a choice .

    Macron is playing bad cop and trying to help Johnson force either a quick ratification of the deal or an election .

    Both he sees as the best way to end the saga . Quick ratification or a likely Tory majority to implement the deal .

    Let’s be honest if there’s no election and no ratification this drama will limp on into January , unless an election is called this week it’s then too late until after January, which means the EU will then be faced with another extension.

    Labour Remainers and the rest of the opposition who want another vote have now a choice either back an election or see a short extension and be forced to ratify a deal they hate.

    Make no mistake Macrons current isolated position won’t be that isolated come Monday if an election isn’t called .

    Because at that point other EU members who are currently siding with the longer extension will start peeling away , realizing that the longer extension will just see more stalemate .

    There’s no great love to see the UK remain in the EU anymore , a few countries still harbour this view but the majority just want to move on .

    Talk of Macron vetoing an extension is however a complete nonsense , his plans for EU reform will need bridges to be built not burnt to the ground .

    And he really doesn’t want to be blamed for throwing Ireland under the bus and the economic harm a no deal would cause especially to those countries he’ll need onside.

    So an extension will be granted but a second vote is likely to be finally laid to rest if the end outcome is a shorter extension .

    If Remainer MPs want a second chance they need to vote for the election. If not then we can assume that when push comes to shove they were more worried about their seats than some principled stand , I don’t say this lightly as an ardent Remainer but that I’m afraid is the natural conclusion.

    Yes, Macron is bluffing this time but it's not a straight bluff - it's a bluff designed to win support if the UK does not go for an election.
    True . And he’s likely to be proven right . Corbyn needs to agree an election and make that the voters choice on Johnson’s deal . Tonight’s FT leak gives Labour Leave MPs a good excuse to pull their support . Barring the 6 who always vote for any deal the numbers would be very hard now to get the deal over the line .
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    rcs1000 said:


    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.

    May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    SunnyJim said:


    Given your a Tory, I find your username funny as "SunnyJim" was James Callaghan's nickname...

    My name could be Jim and I may have a sunny disposition.
    Equally, you could be a washing machine salesman! :smiley:
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019


    "he genuinely didn't appear to understand that when you wrote off a debt, you wrote off somebody's asset." That's socialism for you.

    I honestly doubt that what is being reported about YV "not understanding" is a fair reading of the situation. The man has a PhD in economics. I don't agree with his politics, and I don't find him persuasive, but he's clearly not an idiot.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    SunnyJim said:

    Pulpstar said:

    You'd have thought being this close to the brink would make MPs come to their senses and at least pass a bloody election if they don't want to ratify Boris' "glorious" deal !

    You can yak on about being bullied and not trusting Boris etc etc but if a gun's being pointed to your head at some point you need to hand over the lunch money.

    I find it astounding that remainer MPs who are vulnerable at the next GE won't vote for the WAB as is.

    There is no benefit to them pressing on resisting the deal when they are going to have a very difficult time holding their seats if a GE occurs before exit.

    If they vote the deal through then they can go in to an election on a domestic policy platform which will be undoubtedly more fruitful for them.

    You may be making the assumption that Brexit is far more important to most people than it really is. I'm not convinced that even if we do have a December election that it'll all be about Brexit. May tried that in 2017 and Corbyn simply ignored the issue and rambled on about the NHS and house prices instead.

    A GE will be about all of the policies a prospective government wants to enact, not just one big one. As far as I can tell the Tories have the same number of policies as the LDs (Brexit and tax cuts for higher earners vs. Revoke and HS2), which might put them at a disadvantage in an extended campaign. For all their faults the Corbyn cult haven't ignored domestic policy for the last two years, unlike the Tories, SNP and LDs. I'm not saying I think Corbyn will win, but be careful what you wish for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    If Corbyn stood down and Thornberry became LOTO, Brexit would be dead.

    I don't know why everyone rates Thornberry. Everyone used to say Harman came across as hectoring but I found her down to Earth. Thornberry seems to look down her nose and roll her eyes at everyone. And the England flag controversy just seemed to confirm that.
    If some tosser next to your house covered his home top to toe in England flags outside a tournament I dare say either you, your wife, or both would be pissed off about it. All Thornberry did was draw attention to the inconsiderate dickhead that did it. Get over it.
    I am a liberal. Other people can decorate their houses however they please as long as it is not indecent. I prefer a few flags than some of the hideous modern architecture approved by the council.
    Some people seem insistent that everyone would care if their neoghbour did such a thing, which I find a baffling attitude, and almost certainly just projection. I'd think it looked stupid, but how arrogant would I have to be to think it inconsiderate for someone to harmlessly decorate their own house as they pleased? Someone is a dickhead for having a different opinion than me on what looks good as house decoration? What a pathetic thing to think.

    She never should have been sacked btw
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Mauve said:


    You may be making the assumption that Brexit is far more important to most people than it really is. I'm not convinced that even if we do have a December election that it'll all be about Brexit. May tried that in 2017 and Corbyn simply ignored the issue and rambled on about the NHS and house prices instead.

    A GE will be about all of the policies a prospective government wants to enact, not just one big one. As far as I can tell the Tories have the same number of policies as the LDs (Brexit and tax cuts for higher earners vs. Revoke and HS2), which might put them at a disadvantage in an extended campaign. For all their faults the Corbyn cult haven't ignored domestic policy for the last two years, unlike the Tories, SNP and LDs. I'm not saying I think Corbyn will win, but be careful what you wish for.

    You could well be right.

    Equally I would caution about drawing inference from 2017 which was a perfect storm for Corbyn. The millenials were still raging about the referendum result, he was still assumed to be the answer to overturning Brexit, May was an appalling campaigner, the Tory care plans got shredded.

    None of those particular things will apply next time.

    And indeed, there is absolutely no confusion about where your vote goes if you have Brexit as any sort of priority.

    As I say though, it's all conjecture and you may be right...let's hope we find out soon enough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Equally, you could be a washing machine salesman! :smiley:

    Chortle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rcs1000 said:

    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    @yanisvaroufakis having a go at LibDems. "They have abandoned Liberalism"

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1187480582458138634

    Pretty sure every party, even the truly terrible ones, have interest inbuilding a better society. They just disagree on what that means.

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    I tried that once. Awful, it was.
    I've read a couple of books by Richard O'Brien Yanis Varoufakis and I've never found him to be convincing at arguing a point. There are times when he's saying things I want to believe but he still fails to win me over. This short clip about liberalism, I'm afraid, tells us very little.
    On the positive side, he did a lot of the work on randomising loot boxes and what the mathematics need to be to extract maximum money from kids.
    Seriously? That whole process is malign, and he had a hand in it?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
    Yes.

    Ironic, really.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:

    'France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
    Britain and the EU are nearing the brink of no-deal after President Macron today blocked an extension to Brexit and preparations began for an emergency summit on October 30.
    A source close to the French president warned that a delay to Brexit beyond Thursday was “not a given” unless there was new political movement in Westminster to justify it.
    “France wants a justified and proportionate extension. However, we have nothing of the sort so far,” an Élysée official said.'


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/growing-risk-of-no-deal-in-six-days-after-macron-blocks-brexit-extension-h5fxtprqr


    I'm not sure whether i'm hugely amused or insulted.

    I don't believe it but if it were to be true then there are 3 options available to the opposition:

    1. Vote the deal through

    2. Call a GE on Monday

    3. Revoke


    The opposition need to choose their poison.


    Just in passing - I don't think we agree on much, but I enjoy your posts for their intelligence and the absence of bile.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    One less MP for the deal next week when John Mann moves to the HOL on Tuesday .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Nico67 is typically correct though, on the guff that is the EU briefings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Mauve said:

    I haven't been paying much attention since last weekend, but whatever happened to Boris resigning rather than sending the surrender letter as we were assured he would do on more than one occasion by posters here? He seems to have found a very shallow ditch to lie in as well, given there's no chance of a Halloween Brexit now.

    If Corbyn wasn't playing silly buggers and was a competent leader we'd have resolved this mess one way or the other by now already. Theresa and Boris are both very lucky to have come up against such a useless LotO.

    Sad for all of us though.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
    Yes.

    Ironic, really.
    Which is one reason I have no time for any bollox claims of 'the DUP have been betrayed'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    One less MP for the deal next week when John Mann moves to the HOL on Tuesday .

    Ah, it's been scheduled then. Another reason Boris has given up on Brexit when nominally the best case for him was a maj of 3-5. Too tight to be losing a certain vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
    Yes.

    Ironic, really.
    Which is one reason I have no time for any bollox claims of 'the DUP have been betrayed'.

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
    Yes.

    Ironic, really.
    Which is one reason I have no time for any bollox claims of 'the DUP have been betrayed'.
    Expect them to say it for the next decade.

    That is probably why they said no to May. Nothing better than doing nothing while shouting about how much they want to do something, just look at the assembly.
  • Re the DUP.

    Isn't it more accurate to describe them as an Ulster nationalist party rather than a unionist party ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Jones
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    ydoethur said:

    First again. I need to get out more. :(

    Clearly not :smiley:

    More seriously, how on Earth are people still dumb enough to be betting on Clinton as a possible nominee? I’ve a better chance of becoming President than she has and the constitution would have to be changed first!
    Wall St Democratic megadonors really don't want Elizabeth Warren to be President. If Biden blows up (as seems distinctly possible) they need a Plan B.
    Hillary by name recognition can easily get the polling to get in the debates and can easily get the fundraising. She has many faults, but who else are they going to get at short notice to be a competitive not-Warren candidate ?

    I don't think she'd win either, but there is a price where she is value
    There's a price where anything is value. However this is not it.

    If Biden explodes there are plenty of capable candidates in this race who are actually running: Buttigieg, Booker, Harris KLOBUCHAR. These candidates also have the benefit that their claim to be able to beat Trump (which is most of Biden's current appeal) has not been empirically disproven.

    In the absence of Biden his support would move itself to one or two of these candidates, so the lizard people wouldn't even need to do anything except fund that person.
    Depends on the timing. Booker is currently at 1% and if things don't pick up will run out of funds before any Biden implosion. Hillary would immediately be at double digits if she got in. The talk of Hillary is precisely because Booker/Harris/Klobuchar haven't set the heather blazing thus far.
    Clinton might be at 10 to 15% but she would have an absolute ceiling at 20%.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nico67 said:

    The EU briefings are getting as bad as the guff that comes out of no 10.

    The pressure will ramp up over the weekend which is designed to force MPs into a choice .

    Macron is playing bad cop and trying to help Johnson force either a quick ratification of the deal or an election .

    Both he sees as the best way to end the saga . Quick ratification or a likely Tory majority to implement the deal .

    Let’s be honest if there’s no election and no ratification this drama will limp on into January , unless an election is called this week it’s then too late until after January, which means the EU will then be faced with another extension.

    Labour Remainers and the rest of the opposition who want another vote have now a choice either back an election or see a short extension and be forced to ratify a deal they hate.

    Make no mistake Macrons current isolated position won’t be that isolated come Monday if an election isn’t called .

    Because at that point other EU members who are currently siding with the longer extension will start peeling away , realizing that the longer extension will just see more stalemate .

    There’s no great love to see the UK remain in the EU anymore , a few countries still harbour this view but the majority just want to move on .

    Talk of Macron vetoing an extension is however a complete nonsense , his plans for EU reform will need bridges to be built not burnt to the ground .

    And he really doesn’t want to be blamed for throwing Ireland under the bus and the economic harm a no deal would cause especially to those countries he’ll need onside.

    So an extension will be granted but a second vote is likely to be finally laid to rest if the end outcome is a shorter extension .

    If Remainer MPs want a second chance they need to vote for the election. If not then we can assume that when push comes to shove they were more worried about their seats than some principled stand , I don’t say this lightly as an ardent Remainer but that I’m afraid is the natural conclusion.

    Since Labour MPs know they would lose an early election, do you think they will go for Boris's deal.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    This is sadly true of everyone on every side. We have had four opportunities to leave with a deal. Those who have voted against all four are the most to blame for not doing so.

    No, those who are most to blame are the Leavers, especially Boris, who cynically trashed the original EU-UK deal as not being really Brexit (a quite spectacularly absurd criticism), and thereby gave cover to Labour to join them in wrecking it.
    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
    Isn't the oddest thing that May was originally going for something like the Boris Deal but then changed it because of DUP complaining only to see the DUP then oppose the May Deal.
    Yes.

    Ironic, really.
    Which is one reason I have no time for any bollox claims of 'the DUP have been betrayed'.
    The DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement. They are a bunch of uncompromising idiots. As I have said before, I am coming to the conclusion Britain would be better off without the province. It causes nothing but problems.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The likelihood of Clinton entering the 2020 race is virtually zero. Which means that her comments are probably intended to do exactly as advertised: keep her name in the news cycle in hopes it’ll help her sell more books.

    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1187854870818234368?s=20
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/growing-risk-of-no-deal-in-six-days-after-macron-blocks-brexit-extension-h5fxtprqr

    I think France is right on this. We can't just have endless extensions.
    If you believe there will be a no-deal, you can get 10/1 against from Betfred
    https://www.betfred.com/sports/event/11078800.2
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.


    Theresa May, born Oct 1, 1956. Not sure she’s really “punk” tho - most of us of that vintage weren’t!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    PaulM said:


    Depends on the timing. Booker is currently at 1% and if things don't pick up will run out of funds before any Biden implosion. Hillary would immediately be at double digits if she got in. The talk of Hillary is precisely because Booker/Harris/Klobuchar haven't set the heather blazing thus far.

    One or more of those guys would be in double-digits the day after Biden fell out. The reason why nobody other than Biden is filling the Centrist space is because Biden is filling it, not because there's nobody in the race who could.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "MPs plan to defy Boris Johnson by forcing Brexit votes
    Supporters of a second referendum may try to seize control of timetable next week"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/25/rebel-mps-look-to-thwart-boris-johnsons-brexit-agenda
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.

    I think it's better to call them the Disco Generation - punk was always a minority laste.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fishing said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.

    I think it's better to call them the Disco Generation - punk was always a minority laste.
    You're right, that's a better word for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    SunnyJim said:

    rcs1000 said:


    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.

    May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
    If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    AndyJS said:

    Fishing said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.

    I think it's better to call them the Disco Generation - punk was always a minority laste.
    You're right, that's a better word for them.
    Eight years isn’t a generation.
    Disco kids, perhaps ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    SunnyJim said:

    rcs1000 said:


    What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.

    * I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.

    May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
    If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
    I think it would struggle to get through again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fishing said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reading the header, it reminds me that in this country we haven't had a PM so far who was born between 1956 and 1964. (One might call them the Punk Generation). And that wouldn't change whoever wins the next election, with the current leaders.

    I think it's better to call them the Disco Generation - punk was always a minority laste.
    You're right, that's a better word for them.
    Eight years isn’t a generation.
    Disco kids, perhaps ?
    It's two in Scotland....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    PaulM said:


    Depends on the timing. Booker is currently at 1% and if things don't pick up will run out of funds before any Biden implosion. Hillary would immediately be at double digits if she got in. The talk of Hillary is precisely because Booker/Harris/Klobuchar haven't set the heather blazing thus far.

    One or more of those guys would be in double-digits the day after Biden fell out. The reason why nobody other than Biden is filling the Centrist space is because Biden is filling it, not because there's nobody in the race who could.
    Possibly already starting to be demonstrated in recent polling, like the uptick for Harris and Buttigieg in SC ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    nico67 said:

    One less MP for the deal next week when John Mann moves to the HOL on Tuesday .

    Bercow retiring loses another likely
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2019
    Indonesian report on the Lion Air 737Max crash:
    http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_aviation/baru/2018 - 035 - PK-LQP Final Report.pdf
    Doesn't pull punches - factors involved Boeing, FAA certification, Lion Air maintenance & training.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Indonesian report on the Lion Air 737Max crash:
    http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_aviation/baru/2018 - 035 - PK-LQP Final Report.pdf
    Doesn't pull punches - factors involved Boeing, FAA certification, Lion Air maintenance & training.

    What does it have to say about the Indonesian regulators ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Interesting analysis of carbon capture, which suggests it should not be part of addressing climate change, certainly with current technologies:

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-carbon-capture.html
    ...Due to the high energy needs of carbon capture equipment, Jacobson concluded that the social cost of coal with carbon capture powered by natural gas was about 24 percent higher, over 20 years, than the coal without carbon capture. If the natural gas at that same plant were replaced with wind power, the social cost would still exceed that of doing nothing. Only when wind replaced coal itself did social costs decrease.

    For both types of plants this suggests that, even if carbon capture equipment is able to capture 100 percent of the carbon it is designed to offset, the cost of manufacturing and running the equipment plus the cost of the air pollution it continues to allow or increases makes it less efficient than using those same resources to create renewable energy plants replacing coal or gas directly....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    AndyJS said:

    "MPs plan to defy Boris Johnson by forcing Brexit votes
    Supporters of a second referendum may try to seize control of timetable next week"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/25/rebel-mps-look-to-thwart-boris-johnsons-brexit-agenda

    "It is understood some MPs have been discussing the plans with former EU officials to determine whether it could be enough to demonstrate to Brussels that parliament was serious about using an extension to break the Brexit deadlock."

    It's about time that Macron put these "former EU officials" in their box and said "there will be no time to organise a second referendum (that will only be boycotted and cause another raft of problems whatever the outcome). No mmore extensions. France says "non". Choose now, UK MPs"

    These shenanagins, with the EU plotting with Remainers, have helped caused this current impasse. They need to be taken out the equation.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
    benign grandfather bit.. you have to be kidding.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    Indonesian report on the Lion Air 737Max crash:
    http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_aviation/baru/2018 - 035 - PK-LQP Final Report.pdf
    Doesn't pull punches - factors involved Boeing, FAA certification, Lion Air maintenance & training.

    What does it have to say about the Indonesian regulators ?
    Section 5.6 - p.229
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Morning all. Currently on the bus to Newcastle to watch the rugby. Lets hope its a good one!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019

    Morning all. Currently on the bus to Newcastle to watch the rugby. Lets hope its a good one!

    Nothing worse than a bad bus.

    Enjoy the match, if it's a good match it'll be very good. Potentially a classic.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:

    PaulM said:


    Depends on the timing. Booker is currently at 1% and if things don't pick up will run out of funds before any Biden implosion. Hillary would immediately be at double digits if she got in. The talk of Hillary is precisely because Booker/Harris/Klobuchar haven't set the heather blazing thus far.

    One or more of those guys would be in double-digits the day after Biden fell out. The reason why nobody other than Biden is filling the Centrist space is because Biden is filling it, not because there's nobody in the race who could.
    Possibly already starting to be demonstrated in recent polling, like the uptick for Harris and Buttigieg in SC ?
    Seems like we're seeing a bit of movement in the early states, doesn't it?

    OTOH I think the betting value right now, once you've filled your boots with bargain KLOBUCHAR, is Biden. He has huge national leads, mostly leading in Iowa, barely behind in New Hampshire... And parties nearly always pick a dull moderate against an incumbent.

    I total get all the concerns about how he gets to the end of a sentence and can't remember what it was about, and it could all fall apart from him etc etc. But when someone has a strong, consistent polling lead like this, they normally win.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    OGH's OP: What’s extraordinary about the current betting is that four of the top five are in their seventies (Hillary is 72 tomorrow)

    If age does become an issue, it may dish all of the front-runners simultaneously. For that reason, I'd keep a weather eye on those lower down the list. Age probably won't be an issue, it wasn't with Reagan, Trump or Hillary, and Bernie Sanders has recovered from his dicky heart, so now is not the time to charge in head-down but I'd be wary of laying the rags in case they do suddenly come back into play.

    It is not just age, but rather perceived age. Bizzie Lizzie just fizzes with energy. She really doesn't look old.
    The Real Biz Liz.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited October 2019

    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
    benign grandfather bit.. you have to be kidding.
    Attlee's strength was that he was a first class chairman and manager. Of course he had a strong social conscience as well.
    Not of course comparing Corbyn with him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Morning all. Currently on the bus to Newcastle to watch the rugby. Lets hope its a good one!

    Work for me, but surely NZ are just too good?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
    benign grandfather bit.. you have to be kidding.
    Attlee's strength was that he was a first class chairman and manager. Of course he had a strong social conscience as well.
    Not of course comparing Corbyn with him.
    Half Attlee's Cabinet came from blue collar backgrounds. That is probably more than the entire House of Commons nowadays. Not that I've checked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Roger said:

    I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?

    No. At least not entirely.

    The government has lost control of events and no longer has a clear mission of 31 Oct, do or die. Despite playing fast and loose with the constitution and taking a very divisive attitude, the government looked like it had a grip and was rewarded in the polls.

    Now the government doesn’t have a clue, looks at the mercy of events. This is never a good position to be in. Given enough time It will impact polls.

    The big questions are whether there is enough time and whether Labour are skilled enough and positioned well enough to benefit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Roger said:

    I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?

    He risks owning a No Deal Brexit. I think that classes as "completely ballsed up"!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Roger said:

    I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?

    Yep
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Re the DUP.

    Isn't it more accurate to describe them as an Ulster nationalist party rather than a unionist party ?

    No
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Off to the rugby with a bunch of the neighbours. I have provided 4 different types of sausages. Someone else is making Turkish eggs, another....

    So at least the breakfast should be good.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited October 2019

    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
    benign grandfather bit.. you have to be kidding.
    Attlee's strength was that he was a first class chairman and manager. Of course he had a strong social conscience as well.
    Not of course comparing Corbyn with him.
    Half Attlee's Cabinet came from blue collar backgrounds. That is probably more than the entire House of Commons nowadays. Not that I've checked.
    Yes; worked their way up from the shop-floor (or equivalent) as Union officials, before getting selected to fight a seat. As opposed to doing a fairly soft degree and becoming a SPAD before such a nomination.

    Edit; misspelling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    PaulM said:



    Q for Nick Palmer (or anyone else in Westminster circles)

    Who would be the person in the shadow cabinet who politics aside is most viewed as a "good egg" by MPs of all shades ? I'm not a fan of how Emily T comes accross on TV but I don't know her obviously. Occurred to me watching the eulogies for Elijah Cummings that he seemed to be viewed with genuine fondness by a broad range of DC politicians.

    A lot of the less-known figures like Jon Ashworth (health), John Healey (housing) and Sue Hayman (Shadow Environment) are regarded as serious people who understand their briefs and develop sensible policies. I wouldn't say they were loved but lots of MPs yearn for unflashy competence. Centrist MPs who despair at the tactics often think Labour would do much better than expected if they got a shot at Government, seeing these as delivering the solid meat of everyday government while Corbyn did the benign grandfather bit.
    benign grandfather bit.. you have to be kidding.
    Attlee's strength was that he was a first class chairman and manager. Of course he had a strong social conscience as well.
    Not of course comparing Corbyn with him.
    Half Attlee's Cabinet came from blue collar backgrounds. That is probably more than the entire House of Commons nowadays. Not that I've checked.
    Yes; worked they up from the shop-floor (or equivalent) as Union officials, before getting selected to fight a seat. As opposed to doing a fairly soft degree and becoming a SPAD before such a nomination.
    The union member has been Labour backbone for years. In my experience they are rock solid, know how to organise and extraordinarily hard working.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    In better news, The Outer Worlds is rather good.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Off to the rugby with a bunch of the neighbours. I have provided 4 different types of sausages. Someone else is making Turkish eggs, another....

    So at least the breakfast should be good.....

    And let me guess; they all think Parliament is scum?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    Morning all. Currently on the bus to Newcastle to watch the rugby. Lets hope its a good one!

    Work for me, but surely NZ are just too good?
    Probably but stranger things have happened!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Newbury and Doncaster are both rained off.
This discussion has been closed.