I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?
No. At least not entirely.
The government has lost control of events and no longer has a clear mission of 31 Oct, do or die. Despite playing fast and loose with the constitution and taking a very divisive attitude, the government looked like it had a grip and was rewarded in the polls.
Now the government doesn’t have a clue, looks at the mercy of events. This is never a good position to be in. Given enough time It will impact polls.
The big questions are whether there is enough time and whether Labour are skilled enough and positioned well enough to benefit.
They are waiting for Bercow to disappear so he doesn't change the law at the drop of a hat to suit his remainer mates.
I've been completely away from politics for the last three weeks. Would I be right in thinking in that time Corbyn has completely ballsed it up and gone from having a potentially winning hand to a losing one with no options left?
No. At least not entirely.
The government has lost control of events and no longer has a clear mission of 31 Oct, do or die. Despite playing fast and loose with the constitution and taking a very divisive attitude, the government looked like it had a grip and was rewarded in the polls.
Now the government doesn’t have a clue, looks at the mercy of events. This is never a good position to be in. Given enough time It will impact polls.
The big questions are whether there is enough time and whether Labour are skilled enough and positioned well enough to benefit.
They are waiting for Bercow to disappear so he doesn't change the law at the drop of a hat to suit his remainer mates.
Yes; worked their way up from the shop-floor (or equivalent) as Union officials, before getting selected to fight a seat. As opposed to doing a fairly soft degree and becoming a SPAD before such a nomination.
Edit; misspelling.
SPADs and party officials are still a relatively small proportion of Parliament (20% or so when I last looked IIRC). There are a lot of Labour teachers and Conservative City people. Pure manual professions are now a relatively small demographic in the population at large, so Labour has had to spread elsewhere, in the same way that the Conservatives are no longer dominant by farmers and landowners.
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
I remember reading Joe Klein's books Primary Colours and The Natural about the rise of the Clintons, about their campaigning in the Democratic Governors Convention, their focus on policy, education and the third way of compassion and sensible fiscal policies. It was mainly Bill of course but Hillary played her part, especially on social policy. Where the hell is the next generation (and in political terms the one after that) doing that kind of hard work to build consensus, find solutions, learn from experience etc? When did politics become a part of the entertainment industry?
Hillary in her own right was a terrible candidate but she must look around and think none of these people (with the arguable exception of Elizabeth Warren) have done the hard yards. None of them have earned the right. It doesn't mean she will run of course but it is troubling how that generation now in their 70s is still dominating the scene. Politics has been hollowed out and left to the freaks.
More seriously, how on Earth are people still dumb enough to be betting on Clinton as a possible nominee? I’ve a better chance of becoming President than she has and the constitution would have to be changed first!
Wall St Democratic megadonors really don't want Elizabeth Warren to be President. If Biden blows up (as seems distinctly possible) they need a Plan B. Hillary by name recognition can easily get the polling to get in the debates and can easily get the fundraising. She has many faults, but who else are they going to get at short notice to be a competitive not-Warren candidate ?
I don't think she'd win either, but there is a price where she is value
Football: if anyone (and you had no reason to) followed my Leicester City bet to be winner without Liverpool/Manchester City at 9.5 you can hedge that on Betfair now at 5.
When the market reappears (made the bet on Ladbrokes) cash out might be available too.
F1: both Renaults disqualified from the last race for some brake fiddling. But it's also been described as legal.
Hmm...
The device itself didn’t breach the technical regulations, but the way Renault used it was a breach of the sporting regulations. They were lucky they just got thrown out of the one race.
On topic, will Hillary's raised profile mean that when she does throw her weight behind a candidate* it will actually have some value? Has she said any nice/nasty things about any of them?
As the rugby starts, spare a though for Rebekah Vardy who is no longer the most famous person at her own breakfast table.
On topic, is it Hilary's publishers on the other side of everyone's HRC2020 lays?
On the whole I would suggest to teams playing Leicester that they don't taunt Jamie that "his wife is a grass". Both Burnley and Saints came to regret it
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Have the EU confirmed they will be happy to go back to this agreement?
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Have the EU confirmed they will be happy to go back to this agreement?
I personally think that May's deal was a better compromise between remainers and leavers than Boris' deal but I really cannot see a way back to it now.
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Labour and the tories would be whipped against it if it ever came back somehow, what would be the point except to laugh if the DUP voted for it?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Have the EU confirmed they will be happy to go back to this agreement?
I expect so (at this point the EU will accept any reasonable deal, including any deal they've already agreed to), but it looks a rather desperate attempt to me.
Momentum lost. When even he does not try to get it passed why should anyone else care about it?
He had a window where Brexit look almost inevitable and blew it because someone, presumably Cummings, told him how much the public loves it when politicians cry like babies when they dont get their way.
He had best hope Corbyn is so bad it proved that theory right.
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Labour and the tories would be whipped against it if it ever came back somehow, what would be the point except to laugh if the DUP voted for it?
Latvian Foreign Minister on R4: EU just wants this over, with an orderly Brexit.
So do something about it. The whinging from the EU that they want it over in orderly fashion are tiresome .
It's quite simple - if they want to give us a chance to remain give us the January extension, at a risk of continued frustration. If they want it over quickly listen to Macron and give us one month, no more extension.
I'm fine with them giving us a chance to remain, but if they want it over they need to do more than moan.
What I find astonishing is that they trashed the original deal as not Brexit, and then came back with an almost identical one*, which is now suddenly Brexit.
* I supported the May Deal. I think this worse, but back it. But I hold Johnson in contempt for his behaviour throughout this process.
May's deal would go through with a majority of 300+ if it was offered now.
If that’s the case, why isn’t it being ?
Apparently, some rebels MPs are considering bringing it back if they can seize the Parliamentary agenda. Would bring a wry smile to Theresa's face.
Labour and the tories would be whipped against it if it ever came back somehow, what would be the point except to laugh if the DUP voted for it?
Labour could vote for it with a referendum.
Ah yes, of course. Tough to get referendum legislation through, but would be funny to see who lined up to back the May deal . Very few, with a mass boycott I think, but we know Boris could stomach backing it.
Latvian Foreign Minister on R4: EU just wants this over, with an orderly Brexit.
So do something about it. The whinging from the EU that they want it over in orderly fashion are tiresome .
It's quite simple - if they want to give us a chance to remain give us the January extension, at a risk of continued frustration. If they want it over quickly listen to Macron and give us one month, no more extension.
I'm fine with them giving us a chance to remain, but if they want it over they need to do more than moan.
The ball really, really isn't in the EU's court on getting it done in an orderly fashion.
The UK could accept the deal. The UK could accept the deal with amendments pertinent to the negotiations on permanent arrangements. The UK could reject the deal and revoke Article 50. The UK could make acceptance conditional on a referendum, with revoke as the alternative. The UK could have a decisive General Election (although the huge danger is they mess about for a couple of months on this only to get no decisive outcome).
But these are ALL things that are in the gift of the UK not the EU. All the EU can do at this point is vary the length of the extension, none of which guarantees the UK will get their house in order and do one of the several things they could do to secure an orderly Brexit.
It's not just Letwin. Every single MP that doesn't want no deal should either vote for the deal or vote for an election. There is no other end game from here.
Momentum lost. When even he does not try to get it passed why should anyone else care about it?
He had a window where Brexit look almost inevitable and blew it because someone, presumably Cummings, told him how much the public loves it when politicians cry like babies when they dont get their way.
He had best hope Corbyn is so bad it proved that theory right.
I am not surprised - Customs in the Irish sea is not acceptable to be fair.
However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.
I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE
Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit
The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.
I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party
It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.
Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the iniative and by their obtuse feactin they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.
Latvian Foreign Minister on R4: EU just wants this over, with an orderly Brexit.
So do something about it. The whinging from the EU that they want it over in orderly fashion are tiresome .
It's quite simple - if they want to give us a chance to remain give us the January extension, at a risk of continued frustration. If they want it over quickly listen to Macron and give us one month, no more extension.
I'm fine with them giving us a chance to remain, but if they want it over they need to do more than moan.
The ball really, really isn't in the EU's court on getting it done in an orderly fashion.
The UK could accept the deal. The UK could accept the deal with amendments pertinent to the negotiations on permanent arrangements. The UK could reject the deal and revoke Article 50. The UK could make acceptance conditional on a referendum, with revoke as the alternative. The UK could have a decisive General Election (although the huge danger is they mess about for a couple of months on this only to get no decisive outcome).
But these are ALL things that are in the gift of the UK not the EU. All the EU can do at this point is vary the length of the extension, none of which guarantees the UK will get their house in order and do one of the several things they could do to secure an orderly Brexit.
Indeed. The one thing they could have done to help get the deal over the line was a short extension. However the govts posturing has made making that decision explicitly political, open to claims of interfering in a UK general election. So I expect a flextension to the Benn date.
(With a threat that this really really is the last extension. Although as we have been told threatening to shoot yourself in the foot is not a credible threat in international diplomacy.)
Perhaps they are confused by the now PM declaring Mays deal akin to wearing a suicide vest, a surrender, feeble last year and then a deal most observers says is 95% the same is apparently excellent and wonderful?
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But these are ALL things that are in the gift of the UK not the EU. All the EU can do at this point is vary the length of the extension, none of which guarantees the UK will get their house in order and best 123movies reddit do one of the several things they could do as animation movie to secure an orderly Brexit.
It's either pass Boris Deal or an election or No deal
This is a Parliament that will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to either Deal or General Election - having their fingers prised away one by one by the French. That is how fucked it is.
At least a General Election gives them a slight chance the Parliamentary arithmetic afterwards could still kill Brexit. But more likely, it kills their jobs before Christmas. And the longer they dick around, finding ever more feeble excuses, the more likely that becomes.
But it is one or the other guys.
The sight of Labour MPs being forced to vote for a general election to avoid No Deal, then 100 of them losing their jobs, then Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement with a comfortable Tory majority early next year would be delicious
Closely followed by a crash out a few months later with no FTA. Yes - an absolute hoot.
We would at least be treated to this lot trying to explain why No Deal is not the paradise they promised us. Poor entertainment, but likely to be the only bright spot in post-Brexit Britain.
Fear not, they'd have no problem explaining No Deal turned out to be a disaster only because it was sabotaged by Phil Hammond and Theresa May, and other Remainiac Quislings, so it wasn't a pure clean-break No Deal. The only uncertainty would be whether by then they'd have added Boris to the list of Quislings; I would expect so, on past form.
Long term the political consequences of No Deal would be a massive boost to the Remain/Rejoin side. As much as a boon for Leavers that Revoke would be. So each should be secretly supporting their opponents.
Comments
“How about now?”
“Now?”
Hmm...
Hillary in her own right was a terrible candidate but she must look around and think none of these people (with the arguable exception of Elizabeth Warren) have done the hard yards. None of them have earned the right. It doesn't mean she will run of course but it is troubling how that generation now in their 70s is still dominating the scene. Politics has been hollowed out and left to the freaks.
Betting PostFootball: if anyone (and you had no reason to) followed my Leicester City bet to be winner without Liverpool/Manchester City at 9.5 you can hedge that on Betfair now at 5.
When the market reappears (made the bet on Ladbrokes) cash out might be available too.
On topic, is it Hilary's publishers on the other side of everyone's HRC2020 lays?
https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/24937
Con 36%
Lab 23%
LD 18%
BRX 12%
Grn 6%
SNP 4%
*Not Bernie obvs.
He had a window where Brexit look almost inevitable and blew it because someone, presumably Cummings, told him how much the public loves it when politicians cry like babies when they dont get their way.
He had best hope Corbyn is so bad it proved that theory right.
It's quite simple - if they want to give us a chance to remain give us the January extension, at a risk of continued frustration. If they want it over quickly listen to Macron and give us one month, no more extension.
I'm fine with them giving us a chance to remain, but if they want it over they need to do more than moan.
The UK could accept the deal. The UK could accept the deal with amendments pertinent to the negotiations on permanent arrangements. The UK could reject the deal and revoke Article 50. The UK could make acceptance conditional on a referendum, with revoke as the alternative. The UK could have a decisive General Election (although the huge danger is they mess about for a couple of months on this only to get no decisive outcome).
But these are ALL things that are in the gift of the UK not the EU. All the EU can do at this point is vary the length of the extension, none of which guarantees the UK will get their house in order and do one of the several things they could do to secure an orderly Brexit.
Played at a frenetic pace though, hope the men in white don’t get tired towards the end of the match.
However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.
I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE
Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit
The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.
I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party
It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.
Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the iniative and by their obtuse feactin they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.
(With a threat that this really really is the last extension. Although as we have been told threatening to shoot yourself in the foot is not a credible threat in international diplomacy.)
Only until an FTA is in place.
https://www.facebook.com/chloesmithnorwichnorth/
Eng 1.85
NZ 2.42
Draw 19.5
Value on the Blacks there?
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1186675066148413440
But I haven't yet seen anybody reliable either saying what you're saying or saying the opposite.
Edited extra bit: stuck on a £1 free bet. #captainmoneybags
Edit: damn TMO again.
Changes from last YouGov
Con 36% -1%
Lab 23% +1%
LD 18% -1%
BRX 12% +1%
Grn 6% -1%
Movements all within MOE, but perhaps in the direction one might expect?
Encouraging read - but not sure I buy it.
But these are ALL things that are in the gift of the UK not the EU. All the EU can do at this point is vary the length of the extension, none of which guarantees the UK will get their house in order and best 123movies reddit do one of the several things they could do
as animation movie to secure an orderly Brexit.