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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,173
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder when Ave It will appear with his first December 2019 UK General Election Forecast? :D

    I shall start stockpiling the exclamation marks in preparation
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    It is a shocking answer - but surely its better MPs know the answer than not?

    https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1187457280620597251?s=20
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder when Ave It will appear with his first December 2019 UK General Election Forecast? :D

    I shall start stockpiling the exclamation marks in preparation
    And "CON Gain ... " posters. :D
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    egg said:

    Assuming Labour call Johnsons bluff, and dont go for the December election, how on earth is he going to justify not bringing back the deal to parliament? It is simply unsustainable.

    Well, he could be honest and admit that he dare not let it be analysed too much or people will notice that it is a dog-t*rd wrapped in Xmas paper rather than a glittering, jewel-encrusted, valuable prize.
    Which the EU agreed and co-wrote.
    To their advantage, not ours.
    Did Boris get anything from the negotiation? He’s getting a lot of praise for getting a deal against the odds, but even May could have achieved this WA with the ground he gave away. Did he get very much in return, or was it all about striking in the flush of apparent triumph before it starts to unravel?
    Yes. He got:

    - Northern Ireland inside the UK customs union, and therefore trade advantages above and beyond the Republic, putting an EU member at competitive disadvantage
    - A consent mechanism Northern Ireland, meaning they could exit the arrangement every four years (especially if an EU law particular disadvantages the province), creating lots of risk from the EU side
    - The level playing field rules punted into the future relationship discussion, meaning UK commitments to then can be traded for an EU concession somewhere else
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    A week or two ago I proclaimed that Brexit was dead. Then Boris played his hand very well and even got the WAB through its 2nd reading. But now I'm feeling more confident again in my assertion. All through this process, the fact that many Tories are set on avoiding BINO has made it very difficult to make progress. I'm not sure that anyone predicted this before the referendum: that a Leave victory would simply replace the Europhile/Eurosceptic split in the party with a Soft/Hard Brexit split, but there you have it.

    What I did predict from the outset was that Brexit would ruin UK politics. Overlaying normal party politics with a referendum AND international negotiation produces something that is too complex, too difficult for parliament to cope with. So even now, 3.5 years later, almost any outcome is possible, from No Deal to No Brexit.

    My guess now is that we'll have another election before Brexit happens, we'll have another hung parliament, and Brexit will be dead.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    AndyJS said:
    I suspect it would be getting more publicity if it showed "Leavers think violence against MPs is a price worth paying" instead of both Leavers & Remainers think violence is a price worth paying......

    Hillary Benn thinks doing the research is irresponsible. I think not wanting to know the answer even to as disturbing a question as this is what's irresponsible.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    egg said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Can't believe he's considering it.
    Boris only needs about 90 labour mps to vote for it. If Corbyn confirms he has to whip his mps so it should pass easily
    That ninety figure not dependent on any Conservative, Lib Dem and SNP abstentions?

    Will there be no Conservative abstentions on Monday?
    There won't be any absentions from Tory MPs, but the expelled Tory MPs will probably abstain or vote against.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    I worked in the EU twice (Brussels) - while there was no 'paperwork' required to move there, there was plenty of paperwork required to "live" there - register with the commune if I wanted water, electricity, a phone line or a bank account.....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:
    I suspect it would be getting more publicity if it showed "Leavers think violence against MPs is a price worth paying" instead of both Leavers & Remainers think violence is a price worth paying......

    Hillary Benn thinks doing the research is irresponsible. I think not wanting to know the answer even to as disturbing a question as this is what's irresponsible.
    I just don't believe it. There hasn't been any violence so far over three and a half years since the referendum, unless you include the milkshake attack on Farage.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    I suspect it would be getting more publicity if it showed "Leavers think violence against MPs is a price worth paying" instead of both Leavers & Remainers think violence is a price worth paying......

    Hillary Benn thinks doing the research is irresponsible. I think not wanting to know the answer even to as disturbing a question as this is what's irresponsible.
    I just don't believe it. There hasn't been any violence so far over three and a half years since the referendum, unless you include the milkshake attack on Farage.
    This is the original report:

    https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1709008-future-of-england-survey-reveals-public-attitudes-towards-brexit-and-the-union

    As ever responses to hypotheticals should be treated with caution.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,158

    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?

    Yes, it was originally Macron's idea. However, everybody knows that if Boris Johnson had said, "we like this deal but we need to pass some complicated legislation when we ratify it that was originally supposed to take 3 months so give us until date x" he would have got that extra time. The reason he's still talking like he wants to be done by then is because he *also* committed to the deadline, which he did as a way of differentiating himself from other Tory candidates who were saying it might be sensible to ask to extend.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,338
    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,223
    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



    It is an absolute disgrace. I am extremely upset at my unexercised right to live and work across the EU (and especially my children's rights) being snatched from me. I can only begin to understand how angry you must be, having exercised those rights. Some people want to shrink the world to the size of their own small minds.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.
    What's the process in Germany for securing long term residence for UK citizens resident there? How well have they been publicised?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858

    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



    Some people want to shrink the world to the size of their own small minds.
    And some people want to control who can come to live in the UK - but don't feel the need to be abusive to those with different opinions.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,858
    NEW THREAD
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,223

    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



    Some people want to shrink the world to the size of their own small minds.
    And some people want to control who can come to live in the UK - but don't feel the need to be abusive to those with different opinions.
    You don't think this obsessive need to control who can live where might be a symptom of small mindedness?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If Labour won’t vote for an election surely this massively increases the chances of no deal on January 31st? (unless there are sufficient votes to pass the WA largely unamended). Because if they won’t do it now, when will they ever do it?

    I think even the EU might say enough is enough if asked for another extension beyond that.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,338

    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



    It is an absolute disgrace. I am extremely upset at my unexercised right to live and work across the EU (and especially my children's rights) being snatched from me. I can only begin to understand how angry you must be, having exercised those rights. Some people want to shrink the world to the size of their own small minds.
    you seem to be raving
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,223
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The government can't win......first, it isn't doing enough to tell EU Citizens about applying for settled status.....now, its doing too much.......

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1187117409498517505?s=20


    Its almost certainly doing more than any other EU country.....but then we do have three times more people this applies to than the whole of the EU put together....

    I lived in the USA for a period. I had to apply to renew my visa several times to stay in my own home. This is common for non-citizens the world over.
    Can't you see the difference?

    I've also lived places where I've had to renew visas it would be a bit silly to complain knowing the rules from the start

    Now I live in Germany, I moved here under EU freedom of movement with the right to live work etc here. I gave up my life in the UK, started a family here I made those decisions on the basis of being an EU citizen. I certainly resent having to reapply for permission to stay somewhere I already had the right to stay. I certainly feel that my rights are being retrospectively taken away from me. It's a totally different situation.



    It is an absolute disgrace. I am extremely upset at my unexercised right to live and work across the EU (and especially my children's rights) being snatched from me. I can only begin to understand how angry you must be, having exercised those rights. Some people want to shrink the world to the size of their own small minds.
    you seem to be raving
    I wish.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,338

    kamski said:

    Gabs2 said:
    What's the process in Germany for securing long term residence for UK citizens resident there? How well have they been publicised?
    Not publicised at all, you have to investigate. however to be legally here in the first place you have to be registered, so the situation is a little bit different. It's possible that we will all get a letter in the post when we have to do something.

    Before the March deadline the official position was Brits after a "disorderly" (no deal) Brexit, we would be treated just like any immigrant who has just arrived from a 3rd country with no agreement with Germany.

    In the summer a draft bill was published which seems to imply that Brits already living here by a no deal Brexit day, will usually be given leave to stay without necessarily passing through all the usual hurdles. So far as I know this hasn't passed yet, I assume it will be presented to parliament in the event of no deal.

    If there's a deal then nothing changes until the end of the transition period (there is no information on what happens then).

    If there is a no deal brexit we have 4 months to go to the local Amt and apply for leave to stay.

    I've applied for German citizenship, if they decide I've fulfilled all the criteria before brexit happens then I will be able to keep my British citizenship. If I get it later I would have to give up my British citizenship, which I don't want to do.

    In any case I'm not going to get thrown out of the country, I'm married to a German citizen and have a son here. He is a dual national by birth. In that sense it is more of an inconvenience for me, but it does affect my family in other ways. For example my mum, who is 80 and now a full-time carer for her dying husband, was considering moving to be near us. She also applied for German citizenship because her mother was German. But at the time of my mum's birth German nationality was passed down from the father and not the mother, so that's not going to work. My wife is a doctor and speaks perfect English so would easily find work, and in 2016 we also considered moving to the UK to be close to my family, but she was understandably put off by Theresa May saying she wanted to replace the foreign doctors in the NHS.

    Anyway, it's a good idea for the UK govt to try and reach EU citizens, I just don't think it's the same situation as someone having to apply for a visa to stay in the US. But us humans sometimes have difficulty putting ourselves in other people's shoes, as you know.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew said:
    They won't vote with the Tories.
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    Holy Heartbreak, Batman! The funicular going up to the Tibidabo Church overlooking Barcelona is closed for refurbishment! Will have to make do with a replacement bus!
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    VinnyVinny Posts: 48
    As this website indicated in an interview with Letwin, there will be no election until Brexit has been 'settled' (ie will not happen). This parliament, with remainer MPs in a majority, will not allow Brexit to happen, nor leave open any possible route to it. That includes not having a general election; nor a 'Leaver' as the new Speaker. Shortly, they will push for referendum 2, which will probably be won by remainers. In the unlikely event that Ref 2 is won by leavers, the result will simply be ignored and the status quo resumed.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,739
    Mark ne-Francois-pas MP:‏

    @MarkFrancois12
    Oct 22

    "The clocks go back this weekend. So I'm setting mine to 1940. When this country had some bollocks."
This discussion has been closed.