If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.
I doubt it, most likely the Tories or the Brexit Party (albeit the latter only if it was the Tories revoking) would see an SNP 2015 style landslide under FPTP if MPs cancelled Brexit without even another referendum
How many of the people who want to “get Brexit done” would want to “go through Brexit all over again”? Certainly less than 100%.
Leave got 52%, in 2015 the SNP got a landslide under FPTP on 50%
The forthcoming Bassetlaw by-election ('cos that and Buckingham the only ones we're likely to get this year) will be compelling. Tories need a 4.7% swing to gain. Will Lord Mann give them his backing?
Given Bassetlaw CLP were happy to have Mann be the candidate and Joe Ashton before that, You'd think they might a have a similar minded candidate next time as well unless the NEC get involved.
Oh, but the NEC is bound to be involved. In such a spectacular clash, it is surely inconceivable that the Labour leadership could countenance a candidate who would vote for Johnson's deal (and as virulently anti-Corbyn) as John Mann has been and done.
The Brexit virus has destroyed this country. Can we ever come back?
Terrifying if true. We can only hope this study isn't accurate.
It isn't. The details of the study show those that want it are about 4-7% of respondents.
The big number is made up by 'I see it as a risk but a risk worth tolerating to..'
Very different.
Casino is wrong in his reading of the survey.
The 4-7% is those who say they want to see violence against MPs regardless of Brexit. Two thirds are happy to see violence if it achieves Brexit.
And fully half of remainers feel the same way about avoiding it.
These are horrendous numbers even if taken with a pinch of salt (6% of leavers, for instance, claim they want to be poorer, irrespective of Brexit).
The survey is flawed by the lack of an 'I don't really think there's a risk' option.
So, as a Remainer you are asked whether:
a. I want the destruction of the UK fishing industry irrespective of Remaining b. I think there's a risk the UK fishing industry will be destroyed, but it will be worth it to Remain c. I don't think the risk of destruction of the UK fishing industry is worth Remaining for.
In reality, I think the UK fishing industry would have the same challenges as previous, so the overhyped and very small risk might be worth Remaining. I have been comprehensively funnelled into answering (b).
And every question is structured so.
Shockingly poor and irresponsible from YouGov and The Guardian, moreso that each side is now convinced the other is intent on violence.
Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.
You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?
Just listened to Corbyn live on Sky saying to wait for the EU tomorrow but if they give an extension taking no deal off the table they will vote for the GE
Lewis Goodall just said that there is a really heated battle in labour and it is a bloodbath
Jezza might still come up with the goods for us.
If as some newspapers such as the FT are suggesting, after some internal debate Labour decide to play it long on the General Election, and change leader, shake up the shadow cabinet and go into the election with new leader bounce, will that have much change on the polls and result?
It isn’t is Corbyn going before that election question, it’s a if he did what do you think will be impact?
Here’s my eggxact eggnalysis I think impact will be minimal, firstly Boris support is solid 31-40 % of that next general election. Chucka and Baldrick etc arnt all going to rush back the moment he goes, same for the lost voters many are gone for good or will need to be won over time. So even if labour done that it wont impact the next election and the hammering they are going to get, whenever it comes.
The forthcoming Bassetlaw by-election ('cos that and Buckingham the only ones we're likely to get this year) will be compelling. Tories need a 4.7% swing to gain. Will Lord Mann give them his backing?
Given Bassetlaw CLP were happy to have Mann be the candidate and Joe Ashton before that, You'd think they might a have a similar minded candidate next time as well unless the NEC get involved.
Oh, but the NEC is bound to be involved. In such a spectacular clash, it is surely inconceivable that the Labour leadership could countenance a candidate who would vote for Johnson's deal (and as virulently anti-Corbyn) as John Mann has been and done.
Thanks and to be expected. My guess is Mann will back the Tory (unless he or she is also barking!) and that the seat will be gained, perhaps with a convincing majority. All grist to Boris's mill. On the other hand, a Labour hold.....
There is a Leavers rally planned for central London and Westminster next Thursday 31st October ie supposed Brexit Day. If there is another extension I think there is a chance it could turn violent as it is a day the Commons is in session with Tommy Robinson and co likely to be attending as they did on 31st March
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Gloriously Pyrrhic. Job done.
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Job done.
Job Done. We remain. If you don't vote, you can't complain. You probably will, but so what.
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Job done.
Job Done. We remain. If you don't vote, you can't complain. You probably will, but so what.
And you think that will end the matter. Keep taking the self-deception pills.
The Brexit virus has destroyed this country. Can we ever come back?
Terrifying if true. We can only hope this study isn't accurate.
It isn't. The details of the study show those that want it are about 4-7% of respondents.
The big number is made up by 'I see it as a risk but a risk worth tolerating to..'
Very different.
Casino is wrong in his reading of the survey.
The 4-7% is those who say they want to see violence against MPs regardless of Brexit. Two thirds are happy to see violence if it achieves Brexit.
And fully half of remainers feel the same way about avoiding it.
These are horrendous numbers even if taken with a pinch of salt (6% of leavers, for instance, claim they want to be poorer, irrespective of Brexit).
The survey is flawed by the lack of an 'I don't really think there's a risk' option.
So, as a Remainer you are asked whether:
a. I want the destruction of the UK fishing industry irrespective of Remaining b. I think there's a risk the UK fishing industry will be destroyed, but it will be worth it to Remain c. I don't think the risk of destruction of the UK fishing industry is worth Remaining for.
In reality, I think the UK fishing industry would have the same challenges as previous, so the overhyped and very small risk might be worth Remaining. I have been comprehensively funnelled into answering (b).
And every question is structured so.
Shockingly poor and irresponsible from YouGov and The Guardian, moreso that each side is now convinced the other is intent on violence.
Actually they do ask those questions, though separately. From memory a third of leavers, for example, say that violence against MPs is at least fairly likely.
I agree there are flaws in the study, and I’m sure a close reading of it would throw a significant degree of uncertainty on the headline figures, but it is disturbing nonetheless.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch.
Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
What sort of successful re-election campaign begins with Government Cancels Christmas?
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Job done.
Job Done. We remain. If you don't vote, you can't complain. You probably will, but so what.
And you think that will end the matter. Keep taking the self-deception pills.
Everything changed when Boris got a deal that all but Farage and a few hold-outs didn’t support. No Deal no longer needs to be on the ballot to confer legitimacy.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
Backed his own judgement then, clearly not in charge right now
His judgement this time is that Labour will get thrashed.
You still haven’t answered my question. You are holding 7-2 off short stacked on the bubble. Do you a) go all in or b) fold in the hope that something comes up?
I know you are a very competent poker player IRL so already know your answer. So quit with the nonsense about Corbo.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
But I'm not prepared to see violence against MPs to get my goal.
The survey on sky “Nearly four in five Remain voters say that the economic situation in the country has got worse over the last 12 months. This is close to the level of economic pessimism experienced at the time of the 1992 ERM crisis and more severe than that during the Winter of Discontent in 1978/9. While Remain voters perceive an economy in dire straits, Leave voters are rather more bullish - with just two in five saying things have worsened in the past year. These bubbles extend to people's perceptions of their own financial situation, with around half of Remainers saying they will get worse off over the next year, compared to around one in five Leave voters. Brexit is colouring our perceptions of economic reality.”
How on earth can that be, a reality is a reality how can so many of one bubble or other not get it right?
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Job done.
Job Done. We remain. If you don't vote, you can't complain. You probably will, but so what.
And you think that will end the matter. Keep taking the self-deception pills.
Everything changed when Boris got a deal that all but Farage and a few hold-outs didn’t support. No Deal no longer needs to be on the ballot to confer legitimacy.
Equally as pointless and useless were it taken today as last week. You might as well generate your own numbers and post endlessly about their implications.
Equally as pointless and useless were it taken today as last week. You might as well generate your own numbers and post endlessly about their implications.
Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch.
Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
What sort of successful re-election campaign begins with Government Cancels Christmas?
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
"Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."
Corrected it for you.
I like this post because it’s true. They can’t say it, so they make something up. Take no deal off table. How?
In theory you could argue it's still on the table all the way until the end of the transition period.
Benn act has removed the imminent possibility of a no-deal Brexit. But not ruled it out for ever and ever, which Labour are making condition of supporting GE. So under FTPA if Cummings brings request back again vast majority of Labour MPS abstain.
As for a putative second referendum, particularly one without a No Deal option. Simple...just destroy its legitimacy from the outset. The Conservatives and others, (including erstwhile strong Remainers like me) should actively call for a boycott, refuse to take part in any 'debates' and state upfront that the result will be ignored.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Job done.
Job Done. We remain. If you don't vote, you can't complain. You probably will, but so what.
And you think that will end the matter. Keep taking the self-deception pills.
Everything changed when Boris got a deal that all but Farage and a few hold-outs didn’t support. No Deal no longer needs to be on the ballot to confer legitimacy.
No polling evidence for that yet.
Yes there is. The three way polls between Deal/Remain/No Deal now have No Deal in a distant third, whereas May's deal polled below No Deal.
Several local by-elections today. Last week's showed strong swings to the Conservatives; interesting if there's a similar trend outweighing other place-specific considerations.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
This is rubbish by Nicola Sturgeon's usually reasonable standards. Elections are exactly what they are, and because we all have a vote they prevent charlatans getting their own way - it is our mechanism for stopping them. The EU bill can only be passed if the government has the numbers.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
I think most PB Lefties admit exactly that on a daily basis. It’s hardly a great revelation.
But I'm not prepared to see violence against MPs to get my goal.
The survey on sky “Nearly four in five Remain voters say that the economic situation in the country has got worse over the last 12 months. This is close to the level of economic pessimism experienced at the time of the 1992 ERM crisis and more severe than that during the Winter of Discontent in 1978/9. While Remain voters perceive an economy in dire straits, Leave voters are rather more bullish - with just two in five saying things have worsened in the past year. These bubbles extend to people's perceptions of their own financial situation, with around half of Remainers saying they will get worse off over the next year, compared to around one in five Leave voters. Brexit is colouring our perceptions of economic reality.”
How on earth can that be, a reality is a reality how can so many of one bubble or other not get it right?
People are not just viewing the reality. They are comparing it with what they think (wish) would have happened if they had their favoured outcome.
Remainers: we'd have higher growth if we had voted remain because we wouldn't have created all this uncertainty.
Leavers: The economy is doing great, far better than the doomsayers said it would. It would be doing even better if we had brexited already rather than extended forever.
The truth is the economy is probably flatter than it would have been had we voted remain but the economic implications were weaponised in the campaign, to the point they sounded over-dramatic
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
The SNP are not going to vote with the Tories.
The this is basic Scottish politics 101. They weren't going to vote with the Tories on whatever last haregbrained scheme people though they would vote on (I think May's Queen's speech was the last candidate) they aren't going to do so now.
Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch.
Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
What sort of successful re-election campaign begins with Government Cancels Christmas?
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
When the Government doesn't want an election, the opposition parties want one. When the Government wants an election, the opposition parties don't want one.
(a) I DON'T FUCKING GET IT (b) Just for the love of god get it sorted and get the election rolling because the parliament has become so paralysed it can't even end itself.
Equally as pointless and useless were it taken today as last week. You might as well generate your own numbers and post endlessly about their implications.
As you keep saying...
You keep commenting on junk surveys, I’ll keep reminding you - call it a public service! 😁
The Brexit virus has destroyed this country. Can we ever come back?
Terrifying if true. We can only hope this study isn't accurate.
It isn't. The details of the study show those that want it are about 4-7% of respondents.
The big number is made up by 'I see it as a risk but a risk worth tolerating to..'
Very different.
Casino is wrong in his reading of the survey.
The 4-7% is those who say they want to see violence against MPs regardless of Brexit. Two thirds are happy to see violence if it achieves Brexit.
And fully half of remainers feel the same way about avoiding it.
These are horrendous numbers even if taken with a pinch of salt (6% of leavers, for instance, claim they want to be poorer, irrespective of Brexit).
The survey is flawed by the lack of an 'I don't really think there's a risk' option.
So, as a Remainer you are asked whether:
a. I want the destruction of the UK fishing industry irrespective of Remaining b. I think there's a risk the UK fishing industry will be destroyed, but it will be worth it to Remain c. I don't think the risk of destruction of the UK fishing industry is worth Remaining for.
In reality, I think the UK fishing industry would have the same challenges as previous, so the overhyped and very small risk might be worth Remaining. I have been comprehensively funnelled into answering (b).
And every question is structured so.
Shockingly poor and irresponsible from YouGov and The Guardian, moreso that each side is now convinced the other is intent on violence.
Actually they do ask those questions, though separately. From memory a third of leavers, for example, say that violence against MPs is at least fairly likely.
I agree there are flaws in the study, and I’m sure a close reading of it would throw a significant degree of uncertainty on the headline figures, but it is disturbing nonetheless.
So the intersection between the, let's say, 33% of Leavers who think violence against MPs is fairly likely, and the 71% who say the risk is worth it could be as low as 5%.
Look, I voted remain and, at current the ever shifting combinations of how different outcomes might come about leaves me shifting on best route out of this - sometimes a moderate leave route, sometimes Revoke.
I just feel this particular survey isn't the cause for despair it purports to be, and I'm totally unwilling to use it at a point scoring tool against PB Leavers.
I sincerely hope we do not have to endure a weekend of @AlastairMeeks doing so.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
Backed his own judgement then, clearly not in charge right now
His judgement this time is that Labour will get thrashed.
You still haven’t answered my question. You are holding 7-2 off short stacked on the bubble. Do you a) go all in or b) fold in the hope that something comes up?
I know you are a very competent poker player IRL so already know your answer. So quit with the nonsense about Corbo.
Sorry this is the first time I've seen that question
Yes of course I'd fold. Thing is in politics unlike Poker you somewhat create your own cards. The question is why does he have such a weak hand at present ?
When the Government doesn't want an election, the opposition parties want one. When the Government wants an election, the opposition parties don't want one.
(a) I DON'T FUCKING GET IT (b) Just for the love of god get it sorted and get the election rolling because the parliament has become so paralysed it can't even end itself.
When the Government doesn't want an election, the opposition parties want one. When the Government wants an election, the opposition parties don't want one.
(a) I DON'T FUCKING GET IT (b) Just for the love of god get it sorted and get the election rolling because the parliament has become so paralysed it can't even end itself.
Isn’t that the WHOLE POINT OF FIXED TERMS?
I don't think anyone had this situation in mind when the FTPA became a thing.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
The SNP are not going to vote with the Tories.
The this is basic Scottish politics 101. They weren't going to vote with the Tories on whatever last haregbrained scheme people though they would vote on (I think May's Queen's speech was the last candidate) they aren't going to do so now.
They were never going to do so.
The politics of grudge, hate and animosity is so compellingly stupid and yet people who claim to be adults practice it and think it has merits. Most odd, they must enjoy bitterness.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
Backed his own judgement then, clearly not in charge right now
His judgement this time is that Labour will get thrashed.
You still haven’t answered my question. You are holding 7-2 off short stacked on the bubble. Do you a) go all in or b) fold in the hope that something comes up?
I know you are a very competent poker player IRL so already know your answer. So quit with the nonsense about Corbo.
Sorry this is the first time I've seen that question
Yes of course I'd fold. Thing is in politics unlike Poker you somewhat create your own cards. The question is why does he have such a weak hand at present ?
Sorry, I asked you during the daytime. No worries if you missed it, thanks for the reply.
But I'm not prepared to see violence against MPs to get my goal.
The survey on sky “Nearly four in five Remain voters say that the economic situation in the country has got worse over the last 12 months. This is close to the level of economic pessimism experienced at the time of the 1992 ERM crisis and more severe than that during the Winter of Discontent in 1978/9. While Remain voters perceive an economy in dire straits, Leave voters are rather more bullish - with just two in five saying things have worsened in the past year. These bubbles extend to people's perceptions of their own financial situation, with around half of Remainers saying they will get worse off over the next year, compared to around one in five Leave voters. Brexit is colouring our perceptions of economic reality.”
How on earth can that be, a reality is a reality how can so many of one bubble or other not get it right?
The pay rises are concentrated in the lower wage bands. Sept 2018 on LSE blogs they had a summary article on reserach they had been asked to do for Arla on Brexit effects. 12 months after the vote Arla were paying drivers 10% more because Eastern European drivers had gone to Germany.
Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch.
Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
What sort of successful re-election campaign begins with Government Cancels Christmas?
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
The SNP are not going to vote with the Tories.
The this is basic Scottish politics 101. They weren't going to vote with the Tories on whatever last haregbrained scheme people though they would vote on (I think May's Queen's speech was the last candidate) they aren't going to do so now.
They were never going to do so.
It's entertaining that the folk calling Lab, LDs and the SNP frit for not jumping to BJ's timetable for a GE (& in one particularly fatheaded case, the SNP frit for not forcing a Holyrood GE) are almost exactly the same folk who applaud BJ & his pals for blocking Indyref II, even though they insist they'd win it.
PB's a great place for collectors of human hypocrisies.
Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch.
Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
What sort of successful re-election campaign begins with Government Cancels Christmas?
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
Xmas post? Delays, ballots arriving too late?
Annual postie strike
This is actually a real possibility and could be a big old spanner in the works
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
The SNP are not going to vote with the Tories.
The this is basic Scottish politics 101. They weren't going to vote with the Tories on whatever last haregbrained scheme people though they would vote on (I think May's Queen's speech was the last candidate) they aren't going to do so now.
They were never going to do so.
The politics of grudge, hate and animosity is so compellingly stupid and yet people who claim to be adults practice it and think it has merits. Most odd, they must enjoy bitterness.
If only the SNP would take a lesson from the Ruth Davidson Party (RIP) who managed to vote against a policy that was in their own manifesto just because it was put forward by the SNP.
The survey on sky “Nearly four in five Remain voters say that the economic situation in the country has got worse over the last 12 months. This is close to the level of economic pessimism experienced at the time of the 1992 ERM crisis and more severe than that during the Winter of Discontent in 1978/9. While Remain voters perceive an economy in dire straits, Leave voters are rather more bullish - with just two in five saying things have worsened in the past year. These bubbles extend to people's perceptions of their own financial situation, with around half of Remainers saying they will get worse off over the next year, compared to around one in five Leave voters. Brexit is colouring our perceptions of economic reality.”
How on earth can that be, a reality is a reality how can so many of one bubble or other not get it right?
People are not just viewing the reality. They are comparing it with what they think (wish) would have happened if they had their favoured outcome.
Remainers: we'd have higher growth if we had voted remain because we wouldn't have created all this uncertainty.
Leavers: The economy is doing great, far better than the doomsayers said it would. It would be doing even better if we had brexited already rather than extended forever.
I think the two bubble concept Thresher has come up with is certainly borne out on PB as test case. We all don’t see the same reality. So many posts are all but saying “we just don’t see it like that” A good example, MP says I intend to back the motion, be it Brexit, GE, so those in “wanting that” bubble counts them and says “winning here” but they don’t pay attention to the qualifier that equates as “if you dance to a tune you just wont ever dance to”
Its not getting anywhere so what is the answer. A GE can be an answer. But only if someone clearly wins, as Tarzan said possibility is no one will get enough MPs to avoid it being back to square one.
Confirmatory ref could be an answer, provided its got two clear achievable outcomes (preferably both Brexit) on it. Saying this is true, but too easy to say because is not so straightforward or uncontroversial to achieve.
Another answer is to pass the UK deal with 27 EU states without too many changes. is probably the best option of the three for the country to move on imo
Extension to 31st Jan. No election. No Bill. Vonc. Bill with confirmatory referendum. Deal loses. Revoke. Sanity restored.
The key swing MPs ie the DUP and Labour MPs from Leave seats, both oppose EUref2 and even if there was another referendum leave with the Deal might win
Extension to 31st Jan. No election. No Bill. Vonc. Bill with confirmatory referendum. Deal loses. Revoke. Sanity restored.
Leavers declare second referendum illegitimate. Tories commit to Leave promise in next manifesto. Remainers shout its unfair. Leavers shout that referenda aren't listened to anyway. General election. Tories win. Brexit happens anyway.
Boris going on strike is an even better reason to vote against an election. Several weeks of blissful peace and quiet free of trumpeting of the odious clown is something I think all PBers will agree will be enormously welcome.
The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
The most fitting climax to this Brexit story would be for Boris to get his desired election, and lose. The sight of the Tories, who got us into this mess, having to watch someone else decide what happens next would be rather apt.
When the Government doesn't want an election, the opposition parties want one. When the Government wants an election, the opposition parties don't want one.
(a) I DON'T FUCKING GET IT (b) Just for the love of god get it sorted and get the election rolling because the parliament has become so paralysed it can't even end itself.
Isn’t that the WHOLE POINT OF FIXED TERMS?
I don't think anyone had this situation in mind when the FTPA became a thing.
Yes. The effect is that you need both government and opposition to agree for a GE to happen. That means impasses remain impasses for years on end. That means less democracy.
The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
I like it. I really like a last poll from each company average. How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
The 4-7% is those who say they want to see violence against MPs regardless of Brexit. Two thirds are happy to see violence if it achieves Brexit.
And fully half of remainers feel the same way about avoiding it.
These are horrendous numbers even if taken with a pinch of salt (6% of leavers, for instance, claim they want to be poorer, irrespective of Brexit).
The survey is flawed by the lack of an 'I don't really think there's a risk' option.
So, as a Remainer you are asked whether:
a. I want the destruction of the UK fishing industry irrespective of Remaining b. I think there's a risk the UK fishing industry will be destroyed, but it will be worth it to Remain c. I don't think the risk of destruction of the UK fishing industry is worth Remaining for.
In reality, I think the UK fishing industry would have the same challenges as previous, so the overhyped and very small risk might be worth Remaining. I have been comprehensively funnelled into answering (b).
And every question is structured so.
Shockingly poor and irresponsible from YouGov and The Guardian, moreso that each side is now convinced the other is intent on violence.
Actually they do ask those questions, though separately. From memory a third of leavers, for example, say that violence against MPs is at least fairly likely.
I agree there are flaws in the study, and I’m sure a close reading of it would throw a significant degree of uncertainty on the headline figures, but it is disturbing nonetheless.
So the intersection between the, let's say, 33% of Leavers who think violence against MPs is fairly likely, and the 71% who say the risk is worth it could be as low as 5%.
Look, I voted remain and, at current the ever shifting combinations of how different outcomes might come about leaves me shifting on best route out of this - sometimes a moderate leave route, sometimes Revoke.
I just feel this particular survey isn't the cause for despair it purports to be, and I'm totally unwilling to use it at a point scoring tool against PB Leavers...
That was far from my intention, which is why I pointed to troubling figures on the remain side too. The figures regarding breakup of the UK are worth a close look, too.
Just logging in after watching a documentary on the terrible Korean War (which puts our petty disputes over customs borders into perspective).
Anyway, anybody any idea what Labour's position is tonight?
Lot of hearsay. A good bit of typical Corbyn fence sitting and delaying. But imo linking it clearly to no deal off table, and fact SNP and libdems call it chaff to distract from the coming ditch, Boris needs a better back up plan than going on strike.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Extension to 31st Jan. No election. No Bill. Vonc. Bill with confirmatory referendum. Deal loses. Revoke. Sanity restored.
Chance 5% or less
If Cummings don’t get his general election what are you saying is his back a plan?
Is go on strike, no WAB no Budget sustainable for long without hurting government polling?
I think his back up plan is second ref. Cummings and Boris could win, and there really won’t be any remain come back from that.
Strike would be unwise, or brave as Sir Humphrey Appleby may have said. WAB won't get through, so there is no deal to leave. No revoke or referendum likely.
Must likely parliament will postpone anything happening until they are dragged kicking and screaming to either a decision or election.
And now Sky reports the EU council is badly split and unlikely to give a decision tomorrow and wait until next week. France saying 'non' seems to be gaining influence v Germany who they beat off last week over expansion of member states
Now we have France v Germany
Brexit has poisoned the entire political class here and in Europe
Base case is 75% arithmetic swing (UNS) and 25% multiplicative. Then in any constituency where Lab< LD last time, 45% of Lab vote tactically for LD. In any constituency where LD have no chance (30% of Lab vote last time), 35% of LD vote tactically for Lab. In any constituency where Tory on 3rd place behind LD, 10% vote tactically for LD to defeat Lab. 40% of Green vote transfer to Labour and 40% transfer to LD. 20% remain with Green. NB Source of 45%, 35%, 40% and 40% is YouGov survey.
The most fitting climax to this Brexit story would be for Boris to get his desired election, and lose. The sight of the Tories, who got us into this mess, having to watch someone else decide what happens next would be rather apt.
Comments
https://labourlist.org/2019/10/exclusive-labours-bassetlaw-selection-shortlist/
So, as a Remainer you are asked whether:
a. I want the destruction of the UK fishing industry irrespective of Remaining
b. I think there's a risk the UK fishing industry will be destroyed, but it will be worth it to Remain
c. I don't think the risk of destruction of the UK fishing industry is worth Remaining for.
In reality, I think the UK fishing industry would have the same challenges as previous, so the overhyped and very small risk might be worth Remaining. I have been comprehensively funnelled into answering (b).
And every question is structured so.
Shockingly poor and irresponsible from YouGov and The Guardian, moreso that each side is now convinced the other is intent on violence.
Only the LDs and maybe the SNP back Revoke and VONC likely leads to a general election anyway
It isn’t is Corbyn going before that election question, it’s a if he did what do you think will be impact?
Here’s my eggxact eggnalysis I think impact will be minimal, firstly Boris support is solid 31-40 % of that next general election. Chucka and Baldrick etc arnt all going to rush back the moment he goes, same for the lost voters many are gone for good or will need to be won over time. So even if labour done that it wont impact the next election and the hammering they are going to get, whenever it comes.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
So a lopsided 85-15% 'victory' on probably a local election turnout. Gloriously Pyrrhic. Job done.
LAB: 27%
BREX: 15%
LDEM: 17%
GRN: 4%
via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct
From memory a third of leavers, for example, say that violence against MPs is at least fairly likely.
I agree there are flaws in the study, and I’m sure a close reading of it would throw a significant degree of uncertainty on the headline figures, but it is disturbing nonetheless.
I don’t want to come over all grabacouque but the voters Boris needs for his good result are predominately the ones who may struggle out there in the slippery dark, snow, ice, cold air, wind, so postal votes are going to have to explode to astounding proportions.
Quite a spread now: YG 15, Kantar 14, Delta 13, Opinum 13, Panel 9, Survation 8, Comres 5.
You still haven’t answered my question. You are holding 7-2 off short stacked on the bubble. Do you a) go all in or b) fold in the hope that something comes up?
I know you are a very competent poker player IRL so already know your answer. So quit with the nonsense about Corbo.
“Nearly four in five Remain voters say that the economic situation in the country has got worse over the last 12 months. This is close to the level of economic pessimism experienced at the time of the 1992 ERM crisis and more severe than that during the Winter of Discontent in 1978/9.
While Remain voters perceive an economy in dire straits, Leave voters are rather more bullish - with just two in five saying things have worsened in the past year.
These bubbles extend to people's perceptions of their own financial situation, with around half of Remainers saying they will get worse off over the next year, compared to around one in five Leave voters.
Brexit is colouring our perceptions of economic reality.”
How on earth can that be, a reality is a reality how can so many of one bubble or other not get it right?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
Excluding don't knows, YouGov is now:
Remain: 45%
Deal: 33%
No Deal: 22%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vvsbwijlfo/Internal_JohnsonDeal_191021_tracked.pdf
Remainers: we'd have higher growth if we had voted remain because we wouldn't have created all this uncertainty.
Leavers: The economy is doing great, far better than the doomsayers said it would. It would be doing even better if we had brexited already rather than extended forever.
The truth is the economy is probably flatter than it would have been had we voted remain but the economic implications were weaponised in the campaign, to the point they sounded over-dramatic
The this is basic Scottish politics 101. They weren't going to vote with the Tories on whatever last haregbrained scheme people though they would vote on (I think May's Queen's speech was the last candidate) they aren't going to do so now.
They were never going to do so.
(a) I DON'T FUCKING GET IT
(b) Just for the love of god get it sorted and get the election rolling because the parliament has become so paralysed it can't even end itself.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1187462540940283904?s=19
What was this waste of time. Utterly bizarre.
Look, I voted remain and, at current the ever shifting combinations of how different outcomes might come about leaves me shifting on best route out of this - sometimes a moderate leave route, sometimes Revoke.
I just feel this particular survey isn't the cause for despair it purports to be, and I'm totally unwilling to use it at a point scoring tool against PB Leavers.
I sincerely hope we do not have to endure a weekend of @AlastairMeeks doing so.
Yes of course I'd fold. Thing is in politics unlike Poker you somewhat create your own cards. The question is why does he have such a weak hand at present ?
Con 34.1 (+1.2)
Lab 24.9 (-)
LD 18.6 (-0.7)
BXP 12.4 (-0.3)
Average of Baxter and Flavible:
Con 349 (+11)
Lab 188 (-7)
LD 42 (-4)
My tactical model
Con 305 (+8)
Lab 226 (-6)
LD 49 (-2)
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1187471312647675904
[insert funny joke here]
Great answer! 👍
Stuart Rose told the truth.
PB's a great place for collectors of human hypocrisies.
A good example, MP says I intend to back the motion, be it Brexit, GE, so those in “wanting that” bubble counts them and says “winning here” but they don’t pay attention to the qualifier that equates as “if you dance to a tune you just wont ever dance to”
Its not getting anywhere so what is the answer. A GE can be an answer. But only if someone clearly wins, as Tarzan said possibility is no one will get enough MPs to avoid it being back to square one.
Confirmatory ref could be an answer, provided its got two clear achievable outcomes (preferably both Brexit) on it. Saying this is true, but too easy to say because is not so straightforward or uncontroversial to achieve.
Another answer is to pass the UK deal with 27 EU states without too many changes. is probably the best option of the three for the country to move on imo
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485165323313152?s=20
Rod Crosby had many many faults (don't mention the H word), but he was excellent at showing the background and working to his model.
Is go on strike, no WAB no Budget sustainable for long without hurting government polling?
I think his back up plan is second ref. Cummings and Boris could win, and there really won’t be any remain come back from that.
Anyway, anybody any idea what Labour's position is tonight?
https://twitter.com/Paulmoo50699997/status/1187421907727073283?s=20
How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
Worth it solely for seeing Adonis/Maugham/etc exploding.
If the extension to 31st January comes with strings attached (ie a general election) then what does Labour do?
You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
The figures regarding breakup of the UK are worth a close look, too.
But imo linking it clearly to no deal off table, and fact SNP and libdems call it chaff to distract from the coming ditch, Boris needs a better back up plan than going on strike.
Apparently EU decision might get pushed to Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1187457067323482112
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
WAB won't get through, so there is no deal to leave. No revoke or referendum likely.
Must likely parliament will postpone anything happening until they are dragged kicking and screaming to either a decision or election.
I really don’t like the way he smirks.
Now we have France v Germany
Brexit has poisoned the entire political class here and in Europe
What a complete horlicks
Hope he ends up as the only Lab MP in Scotland, it is what they deserve.
Then in any constituency where Lab< LD last time, 45% of Lab vote tactically for LD.
In any constituency where LD have no chance (30% of Lab vote last time), 35% of LD vote tactically for Lab.
In any constituency where Tory on 3rd place behind LD, 10% vote tactically for LD to defeat Lab.
40% of Green vote transfer to Labour and 40% transfer to LD. 20% remain with Green.
NB Source of 45%, 35%, 40% and 40% is YouGov survey.
Should we ask Andrew Marr?