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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Barnesian said:

    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    CON: 32%
    LAB: 27%
    BREX: 15%
    LDEM: 17%
    GRN: 4%

    via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct


    Quite a spread now: YG 15, Kantar 14, Delta 13, Opinum 13, Panel 9, Survation 8, Comres 5.
    Adding the last six polls into my EMA gives:

    Con 34.1 (+1.2)
    Lab 24.9 (-)
    LD 18.6 (-0.7)
    BXP 12.4 (-0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible:

    Con 349 (+11)
    Lab 188 (-7)
    LD 42 (-4)

    My tactical model

    Con 305 (+8)
    Lab 226 (-6)
    LD 49 (-2)
    Show working....otherwise zero points.

    Rod Crosby had many many faults (don't mention the H word), but he was excellent at showing the background and working to his model.
    See recent post for tactical assumptions. I will try to put the Excel spreadsheet up if I can find out how.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Andrew said:

    The clock about to tick over to less than a week before no-deal exit.

    Apparently EU decision might get pushed to Tuesday.

    Boris could then propose his Bill again with the choice of Deal or No Deal if the EU refuse extension beyond November thanks to Macron
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited October 2019
    It’s counter intuitive today, but the longer this election is postponed the more I doubt the governments chances.

    The govt used to look in control of events, even when it was bending and breaking the rules. Malign, but shaping the agenda. It was moving towards Oct 31.

    It now doesn’t look in control of events any more. It looks weak. Weak and malign is not a good look. There is no clarity in its mission.

    It may not be in the polls, but things have changed. If I were Labour, I would start not be feeling so negative about an election, but this needs to run on a bit.





  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    HYUFD said:

    To dilute American capitalism more like
    Let's hope so.
  • philiph said:

    egg said:

    Andrew said:

    The clock about to tick over to less than a week before no-deal exit.

    Apparently EU decision might get pushed to Tuesday.

    That’s what Macron wants.
    I really don’t like the way he smirks.
    Is he related to P Patel.

    Should we ask Andrew Marr?
    The BBC have offered a full apology to Patel and expect him to say so live and on air in his next programme
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited October 2019

    The boys doing the Fascist salutes (no, not the Ultra Yoons) sent home with their tails between their legs, a good night.

    https://twitter.com/Paulmoo50699997/status/1187421907727073283?s=20

    I saw that, must literally have been metres away from whomever had the phone camera.

    Good news is the bawbags turned the corner 2 minutes later towards Queen St. station just as two police vans rocked up.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Is there a way Corbyn can keep Boris in power beyond 2022?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    philiph said:

    egg said:

    Andrew said:

    The clock about to tick over to less than a week before no-deal exit.

    Apparently EU decision might get pushed to Tuesday.

    That’s what Macron wants.
    I really don’t like the way he smirks.
    Is he related to P Patel.

    Should we ask Andrew Marr?
    The BBC have offered a full apology to Patel and expect him to say so live and on air in his next programme
    Don’t make me laugh.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    SNP frit now too?

    Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
    Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.

    You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
    Labour and the SNP putting party before country
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    SNP frit now too?

    Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
    Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.

    You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
    Labour and the SNP putting party before country
    Hard to compete with the selflessness of Boris Johnson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Omnium said:

    Is there a way Corbyn can keep Boris in power beyond 2022?

    Maybe, it suits both, Boris just wants to be PM, Corbyn just wants to be Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Cumstain. Screwing it up on bahalf of Bozo. Entertaining for the armchair fan.


    N.B. An 'armchair fan' is not a fan of armchairs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/24/klobuchar-qualifies-for-november-debate-056454

    Interesting to note that Hillary has not qualified for the November debate.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc
    Those amendments were going to be attempted to be added even if the bill only had 5 minutes. The fact if the 3 day limit had been 10 days Boris would be celebrating leaving on November 10th / 15th. As it is people have screwed up again.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Is there a way Corbyn can keep Boris in power beyond 2022?

    Maybe, it suits both, Boris just wants to be PM, Corbyn just wants to be Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party
    No, I don't think Corbyn does. He comes across to me as someone who has had enough and wasn't that keen in the first place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    I think Corbyn might be on a new strategy.... attempting to engineer "no deal" :o
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    egg said:

    Barnesian said:

    PaulM said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    CON: 32%
    LAB: 27%
    BREX: 15%
    LDEM: 17%
    GRN: 4%

    via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct


    Quite a spread now: YG 15, Kantar 14, Delta 13, Opinum 13, Panel 9, Survation 8, Comres 5.
    Adding the last six polls into my EMA gives:

    Con 34.1 (+1.2)
    Lab 24.9 (-)
    LD 18.6 (-0.7)
    BXP 12.4 (-0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible:

    Con 349 (+11)
    Lab 188 (-7)
    LD 42 (-4)

    My tactical model

    Con 305 (+8)
    Lab 226 (-6)
    LD 49 (-2)
    What is the +/- comparing to ?
    The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
    I like it. I really like a last poll from each company average.
    How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
    The EMA (exponential moving average) gives the latest poll a 10% weight that then gradually diminishes (exponentially) as other polls come into play. So if a rogue poll is say 5% out it will add 0.5% to the EMA and then gradually diminish. It is a way of smoothing noise but picking up trends. It is used in many commercial forecasting applications.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    QT from South Shields anyway - lets see how this one goes.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    A little note on the death of the people in the trailer at Purfleet.

    The Irish connection to the part of Bulgaria where the trailer was registered is very long standing. A large amount of money sloshing about in the Republican movement was laundered into property in the country. Designed to provide a nice revenue for the movement post-ceasefire. Terms will be used like 'organised crime' or 'dissident republicans'. The reality is that the Provos laundered that cash into investments and its been known for 10+ years that it went on.

    Is there a connection with the unfortunates in the lorry? We will soon find out.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    My US Democratic Primary Book

    Buttigieg: up big
    Warren: up medium
    Biden & Sanders: up, but only because I've been selling Hillary
    Hillary: I will need to remortgage my house

    The field: up medium
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    HYUFD said:

    To dilute American capitalism more like
    Let's hope so.
    My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    QT from South Shields anyway - lets see how this one goes.

    Its the OAP Team out this evening....Norman Lamont (so that will be Climate Change ain't happening), Ken Loach (Jezza is the Messiah and its the Jews fault) etc
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Johnson doesn't want to leave with this deal. It's better than no deal, but it's still really bad, and he'll have seen the analysis backing that up. The gameplan was to give up whatever was necessary to get a deal that could be sold as a triumph, get thwarted by Parliament, and then go to an election to get himself 5 more years on the basis that the lack of Brexit was all the fault of the nasty MPs.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    Cumstain. Screwing it up on bahalf of Bozo. Entertaining for the armchair fan.


    N.B. An 'armchair fan' is not a fan of armchairs.
    The cunning Cumming plan has worked not necessarily to Bunter’s advantage.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    SNP frit now too?

    Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
    Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.

    You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
    Labour and the SNP putting party before country
    Opposition parties putting themselves before the wishes of the Tory Party, I'm shocked. Only Tories conflate doing what Tories want with the national interest, but then again they always have so no surprise there either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    To dilute American capitalism more like
    Let's hope so.
    My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
    No different to 15 years ago when I first went. Atlanta is a city where nobody with decent job wants to live anywhere near downtown.
  • 2049 and Britain’s solitary Tory MP and Prime Minister remains barricaded in 10 Downing Street by the opposition, unable to enact any legislation and ready to extend Brexit yet again as 30 years of Government paralysis look set to enter a new decade.

    Britain is booming and has been for some years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Corbyn might be on a new strategy.... attempting to engineer "no deal" :o

    This is new? Seamus, Len and Murphy have been trying to engineer it for months/decades.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    Extension to 31st Jan. No election. No Bill. Vonc. Bill with confirmatory referendum. Deal loses. Revoke. Sanity restored.

    Thinking revoke will make things magically better is just as much a false prospectus as sold by any leaver who ever said Brexit would be easy.

    Remaining is best now, I personally believe that, but that doesn't excuse pretending all will be simple and 'sane' if it happens.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    HYUFD said:

    As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc

    Remind me where it states that Parliament is obliged to accept any old deal that the Tories come up with
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    HYUFD said:

    To dilute American capitalism more like
    Let's hope so.
    My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
    You mean "Real Housewives of Atlanta" isn't representative of the wider community?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Andrew said:

    The clock about to tick over to less than a week before no-deal exit.

    Apparently EU decision might get pushed to Tuesday.

    Oh those teases. They're in a game of chicken with the UK parliament, which I think the EU would win.

    God forbid they did say no extension - suddenly concern for scrutinising the deal would evaporate, even as ERGers abandoned it.
  • Jonathan said:

    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    SNP frit now too?

    Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
    Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.

    You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
    Labour and the SNP putting party before country
    Hard to compete with the selflessness of Boris Johnson.
    Shocking that the SNP won't put the UK before party (though they've actually spent a fair amount of capital in putting the UK first in terms of Brexit).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Cumstain. Screwing it up on bahalf of Bozo. Entertaining for the armchair fan.


    N.B. An 'armchair fan' is not a fan of armchairs.
    The cunning Cumming plan has worked not necessarily to Bunter’s advantage.
    Alternative view. Labour taking hammering in papers and press preview right now for being massively split on this.

    Take a look at page 6 and 7 of telegraph today and truth is Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election?

    But that’s not how it’s coming across tonight. Big G can say Tories seem united behind this. That’s the genius of Cumming and Boris. Like Trump they control the verticals they control the horizontals
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Lib Dems gain Llandrindod from nowhere
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    egg said:

    blueblue said:

    justin124 said:

    It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!

    I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
    The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too! :lol:
    Burgon wants one.

    [insert funny joke here]
    I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.

    I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    wtf? This is getting sillier by the minute.


    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1187471312647675904

    I suspect they are waiting to see exactly what the EU say Re, the extension tomorrow.

    If the extension to 31st January comes with strings attached (ie a general election) then what does Labour do?
    Go for a GE. But would they be so bold with their strings, or just reiterate what they said last time, only stronger - 'Use this time wisely, and we really mean it this time!' sotto voce 'Pass it or have an election, can we make it any clearer? Gods'
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:
    That’s a funny place, they still like the Stasi
  • Drutt said:

    egg said:

    blueblue said:

    justin124 said:

    It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!

    I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
    The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too! :lol:
    Burgon wants one.

    [insert funny joke here]
    I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.

    I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
    The only explanation is there must be another Richard Burgon sitting somewhere wondering to this day how his application got rejected.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    2049 and Britain’s solitary Tory MP and Prime Minister remains barricaded in 10 Downing Street by the opposition, unable to enact any legislation and ready to extend Brexit yet again as 30 years of Government paralysis look set to enter a new decade.

    Britain is booming and has been for some years.

    Haha. Should be applauded by the 'less government' brigade!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc
    Sometimes a government has to fight Parliamentary trench warfare to protect its legislation from such attempts to amend it. John Major managed it with Maastricht. Brave Boris Johnson has run away.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    slade said:

    Lib Dems gain Llandrindod from nowhere

    To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Lab hold in Flintshire.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Barnesian said:

    egg said:

    Barnesian said:

    PaulM said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    CON: 32%
    LAB: 27%
    BREX: 15%
    LDEM: 17%
    GRN: 4%

    via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct


    Quite a spread now: YG 15, Kantar 14, Delta 13, Opinum 13, Panel 9, Survation 8, Comres 5.
    Adding the last six polls into my EMA gives:

    Con 34.1 (+1.2)
    Lab 24.9 (-)
    LD 18.6 (-0.7)
    BXP 12.4 (-0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible:

    Con 349 (+11)
    Lab 188 (-7)
    LD 42 (-4)

    My tactical model

    Con 305 (+8)
    Lab 226 (-6)
    LD 49 (-2)
    What is the +/- comparing to ?
    The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
    I like it. I really like a last poll from each company average.
    How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
    The EMA (exponential moving average) gives the latest poll a 10% weight that then gradually diminishes (exponentially) as other polls come into play. So if a rogue poll is say 5% out it will add 0.5% to the EMA and then gradually diminish. It is a way of smoothing noise but picking up trends. It is used in many commercial forecasting applications.
    I am right behind you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    I think he's right. It was because of abject fear of breaching the 31 October date, and yet most of the leavers on here have been saying for a month that Boris would be fine in that situation, as he'd be forced beyond it against his wishes, so Boris has screwed up his own momentum for perhaps nothing. Plenty of remainers thought it was over, and now they don't - well done No.10 .Brexit would have been a struggle but they had a good shot at getting it by end of November at the latest.

    Now this - unwilling to try, unable to move.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Drutt said:

    egg said:

    blueblue said:

    justin124 said:

    It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!

    I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
    The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too! :lol:
    Burgon wants one.

    [insert funny joke here]
    I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.

    I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
    I feel your pain, chips.

    The mans a frankie goes to Hollywood tribute act.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    Boris is playing games, but we know other people who have been doing that, don't we Dominic?

    Very intelligent man, but as self reflective as a brick wall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Staunch socialist and Corbyn supporter Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Suggested that Trump will be directing US troops to protect Syrian oilfields:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1187424632418295809

    Whose control (the oilfields, that is) has been contracted out to Russia...
  • HYUFD said:

    Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'

    i.e. Only Jezza's unicorn deal, that Labour will then campaign to reject.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Y0kel said:

    A little note on the death of the people in the trailer at Purfleet.

    The Irish connection to the part of Bulgaria where the trailer was registered is very long standing. A large amount of money sloshing about in the Republican movement was laundered into property in the country. Designed to provide a nice revenue for the movement post-ceasefire. Terms will be used like 'organised crime' or 'dissident republicans'. The reality is that the Provos laundered that cash into investments and its been known for 10+ years that it went on.

    Is there a connection with the unfortunates in the lorry? We will soon find out.

    No we won't because it is a sectarian Hibernophobe innuendo to insinuate that "the Irish" are somehow involved in people trafficking.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Con hold in Powys.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    "We are elected to choose, not evade. That's why my party is now trying to go for a GE to help all the MPs who won't choose to evade!"
    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1187454870900662277
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    Salmond got the referendum in the first place and the SNP majority in 2011 that delivered it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'

    i.e. Only Jezza's unicorn deal, that Labour will then campaign to reject.
    Corbyn will campaign for it along with Len McCluskey, Starmer and McDonnell and Thornberry will campaign to reject it!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    kle4 said:

    "We are elected to choose, not evade. That's why my party is now trying to go for a GE to help all the MPs who won't choose to evade!"
    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1187454870900662277

    I agree with Tom. And I'm not even going to blame Boris. Not totally, anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    "We are elected to choose, not evade. That's why my party is now trying to go for a GE to help all the MPs who won't choose to evade!"
    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1187454870900662277

    I agree with Tom. And I'm not even going to blame Boris. Not totally, anyway.
    His words are completely correct. I just don't know how many who say the right words actually put that into action. Because if they don't, it means nothing at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    Boris is playing games, but we know other people who have been doing that, don't we Dominic?

    Very intelligent man, but as self reflective as a brick wall.
    Tomorrow he'll be yesterday's man
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

    </blockquote
    Con hold in Newtown.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'

    i.e. Only Jezza's unicorn deal, that Labour will then campaign to reject.
    loach is noted for the salient realities in his films, Dan Blake, Land And Freedom I particularly found thoughtful. But if you talk to the guy about politics It’s quickly clear he hasn’t a clue, like you say unicorns on rainbows farting vegan marshmallows
    Imo he leaves thinking to the screenwriter and producer, and directs, but directs well
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Con hold in Wiltshire.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    slade said:

    Lib Dems gain Llandrindod from nowhere

    To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
    The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
  • HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

    Yikes.

    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    slade said:

    Con hold in Wiltshire.

    To be expected - it was a close fight between Con and UKIP in 2013, so rock safe in 2017. Be interesting to see any swing though - another Wiltshire Con defence coming up in a month, much better chance for Tories there.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    slade said:

    Lib Dems gain Llandrindod from nowhere

    To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
    The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
    He sounds like he belongs in the LibDems
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
    The signed stuff was with a big grin dropped in the bin, they had what they wanted, and they’ve told you as much all week
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    slade said:

    Lib Dems gain Llandrindod from nowhere

    To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
    The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
    I love local councils, much more fluidity than national politics (until recently). Who knows, the Labour group on your council might increase without elections!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

    Yikes.

    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
    Llandrindod is in Brecon and Radnor which already has a LD MP anyway
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
    What happened to Sir Graham Brady Old Lady’s leadership bid? He would at least grasp the basics of letter writing
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
    The signed stuff was with a big grin dropped in the bin, they had what they wanted, and they’ve told you as much all week
    I was quite surprised BJ didn't entrust it to Royal Mail without a stamp.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

    Yikes.

    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
    Llandrindod is in Brecon and Radnor which already has a LD MP anyway
    I know politics moves quickly these days, but I can just about remember the by-election, yes.
  • HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    No, LD gain with no Green

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20

    Yikes.

    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
    I was in Llandrindod at the weekend.I hadn't been there for 20 years although I am from Mid Wales.The town struck me as being very quiet, but the main hotel (The Metropole - a huge Victorian pile right in the middle of the town and pretty well run by a family) was heaving with societies, fishing groups (the Wye is nearby) and seemed to be thriving. There was an LD office just off the main street and there were a number of people in it early on Sunday. Weirdly I didn't see any election posters!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
    And he didn't sign it. And he wrote it on rice paper. With his fingers crossed. And he sat on his hand first so it felt like somebody else did it. Then he gave it somebody else and said "I am not telling you to send this" whilst winking and mugging furiously and pointing to the post box. Then he had brain surgery to make him forget he did it. Yes. That was it. It wasn't him at all. Oh dear me no... :)
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.

    On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.

    Sturgeon is a class act.

    Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
    Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
    She delivered the landslide, not him.
    She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.

    Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
    Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.

    Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?

    Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
    Sturgeon lost it then
    Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.

    Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
    I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
    A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
    And he didn't sign it. And he wrote it on rice paper. With his fingers crossed. And he sat on his hand first so it felt like somebody else did it. Then he gave it somebody else and said "I am not telling you to send this" whilst winking and mugging furiously and pointing to the post box. Then he had brain surgery to make him forget he did it. Yes. That was it. It wasn't him at all. Oh dear me no... :)
    :D
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:
    Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
  • Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.

    On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?

    12th December is around the time when uni students break-up for Christmas this year.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    slade said:

    Con hold in Powys.

    There were two by elections in Powys.

    One tory hold, one libdem gain from tories.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Is that the result from today’s political cabinet 😆
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sooooo, how do the SNP vote on Monday?


    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1187492053556568066
  • Call me a cynic but question time seems to have some lobbyists for zero hour contracts infiltrating the show this evening.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited October 2019

    Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.

    On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?

    Snow is far more likely in Jan/Feb than Dec.

    Students will start to break up from Universities in early Dec, and some are off for up to a month.

    Even I might do a postal vote, I normally go and vote at 7am.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
    As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
    As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
    Six figures? But but but but he’s a socialist right? So he must donate most of that to a charity or something. Surely?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
    As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
    coughBoriscoughTelegraphcough
This discussion has been closed.