It’s counter intuitive today, but the longer this election is postponed the more I doubt the governments chances.
The govt used to look in control of events, even when it was bending and breaking the rules. Malign, but shaping the agenda. It was moving towards Oct 31.
It now doesn’t look in control of events any more. It looks weak. Weak and malign is not a good look. There is no clarity in its mission.
It may not be in the polls, but things have changed. If I were Labour, I would start not be feeling so negative about an election, but this needs to run on a bit.
As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc
Those amendments were going to be attempted to be added even if the bill only had 5 minutes. The fact if the 3 day limit had been 10 days Boris would be celebrating leaving on November 10th / 15th. As it is people have screwed up again.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
I like it. I really like a last poll from each company average. How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
The EMA (exponential moving average) gives the latest poll a 10% weight that then gradually diminishes (exponentially) as other polls come into play. So if a rogue poll is say 5% out it will add 0.5% to the EMA and then gradually diminish. It is a way of smoothing noise but picking up trends. It is used in many commercial forecasting applications.
A little note on the death of the people in the trailer at Purfleet.
The Irish connection to the part of Bulgaria where the trailer was registered is very long standing. A large amount of money sloshing about in the Republican movement was laundered into property in the country. Designed to provide a nice revenue for the movement post-ceasefire. Terms will be used like 'organised crime' or 'dissident republicans'. The reality is that the Provos laundered that cash into investments and its been known for 10+ years that it went on.
Is there a connection with the unfortunates in the lorry? We will soon find out.
My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
QT from South Shields anyway - lets see how this one goes.
Its the OAP Team out this evening....Norman Lamont (so that will be Climate Change ain't happening), Ken Loach (Jezza is the Messiah and its the Jews fault) etc
Johnson doesn't want to leave with this deal. It's better than no deal, but it's still really bad, and he'll have seen the analysis backing that up. The gameplan was to give up whatever was necessary to get a deal that could be sold as a triumph, get thwarted by Parliament, and then go to an election to get himself 5 more years on the basis that the lack of Brexit was all the fault of the nasty MPs.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.
You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
Labour and the SNP putting party before country
Opposition parties putting themselves before the wishes of the Tory Party, I'm shocked. Only Tories conflate doing what Tories want with the national interest, but then again they always have so no surprise there either.
My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
No different to 15 years ago when I first went. Atlanta is a city where nobody with decent job wants to live anywhere near downtown.
2049 and Britain’s solitary Tory MP and Prime Minister remains barricaded in 10 Downing Street by the opposition, unable to enact any legislation and ready to extend Brexit yet again as 30 years of Government paralysis look set to enter a new decade.
My trip last winter to Atlanta, where the downtown was dilapidated, filthy and largely deserted, save for several amputees and otherwise injured beggars hooked on alcohol and opiates, suggested to me that some dilution might be advisable.
You mean "Real Housewives of Atlanta" isn't representative of the wider community?
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
SNP frit now too?
Must be some interesting private polling out there.....
Johnson is not going to gat A GE until the opposition decide to allow it.
You can scweam and scweam until you are sick, it's not going to make a jot of difference.
Labour and the SNP putting party before country
Hard to compete with the selflessness of Boris Johnson.
Shocking that the SNP won't put the UK before party (though they've actually spent a fair amount of capital in putting the UK first in terms of Brexit).
Cumstain. Screwing it up on bahalf of Bozo. Entertaining for the armchair fan.
N.B. An 'armchair fan' is not a fan of armchairs.
The cunning Cumming plan has worked not necessarily to Bunter’s advantage.
Alternative view. Labour taking hammering in papers and press preview right now for being massively split on this.
Take a look at page 6 and 7 of telegraph today and truth is Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election?
But that’s not how it’s coming across tonight. Big G can say Tories seem united behind this. That’s the genius of Cumming and Boris. Like Trump they control the verticals they control the horizontals
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
Burgon wants one.
[insert funny joke here]
I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.
I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
I suspect they are waiting to see exactly what the EU say Re, the extension tomorrow.
If the extension to 31st January comes with strings attached (ie a general election) then what does Labour do?
Go for a GE. But would they be so bold with their strings, or just reiterate what they said last time, only stronger - 'Use this time wisely, and we really mean it this time!' sotto voce 'Pass it or have an election, can we make it any clearer? Gods'
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
Burgon wants one.
[insert funny joke here]
I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.
I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
The only explanation is there must be another Richard Burgon sitting somewhere wondering to this day how his application got rejected.
2049 and Britain’s solitary Tory MP and Prime Minister remains barricaded in 10 Downing Street by the opposition, unable to enact any legislation and ready to extend Brexit yet again as 30 years of Government paralysis look set to enter a new decade.
Britain is booming and has been for some years.
Haha. Should be applauded by the 'less government' brigade!
As attempts would been made to amend it out of existence with a Customs Union added, a confirmatory referendum etc
Sometimes a government has to fight Parliamentary trench warfare to protect its legislation from such attempts to amend it. John Major managed it with Maastricht. Brave Boris Johnson has run away.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
The position before the last six polls. It is showing the short term movement over the last two or three weeks. A small Tory surge, with LD and BXP falling back a bit and Labour static. You can see the effect on predicted seats.
I like it. I really like a last poll from each company average. How susceptible to one rouge poll in it though?
The EMA (exponential moving average) gives the latest poll a 10% weight that then gradually diminishes (exponentially) as other polls come into play. So if a rogue poll is say 5% out it will add 0.5% to the EMA and then gradually diminish. It is a way of smoothing noise but picking up trends. It is used in many commercial forecasting applications.
I think he's right. It was because of abject fear of breaching the 31 October date, and yet most of the leavers on here have been saying for a month that Boris would be fine in that situation, as he'd be forced beyond it against his wishes, so Boris has screwed up his own momentum for perhaps nothing. Plenty of remainers thought it was over, and now they don't - well done No.10 .Brexit would have been a struggle but they had a good shot at getting it by end of November at the latest.
It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
I was just thinking that. Hmm. Anyway, it’s all very amusing stuff. Read back some of the posts from Gin and his brethren from the last 24 hours. Absolute keepers!
The wholehearted admission from Labour supporters that their band of loonies is utterly unelectable was definitely something for the scrapbook too!
Burgon wants one.
[insert funny joke here]
I have just found out that Cambridge University admitted Richard Burgon and turned me down within a twelve-month period. Different course, different college, but that still really hurts.
I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
Staunch socialist and Corbyn supporter Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'
A little note on the death of the people in the trailer at Purfleet.
The Irish connection to the part of Bulgaria where the trailer was registered is very long standing. A large amount of money sloshing about in the Republican movement was laundered into property in the country. Designed to provide a nice revenue for the movement post-ceasefire. Terms will be used like 'organised crime' or 'dissident republicans'. The reality is that the Provos laundered that cash into investments and its been known for 10+ years that it went on.
Is there a connection with the unfortunates in the lorry? We will soon find out.
No we won't because it is a sectarian Hibernophobe innuendo to insinuate that "the Irish" are somehow involved in people trafficking.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
Salmond got the referendum in the first place and the SNP majority in 2011 that delivered it
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
I agree with Tom. And I'm not even going to blame Boris. Not totally, anyway.
His words are completely correct. I just don't know how many who say the right words actually put that into action. Because if they don't, it means nothing at all.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
Ken Loach backs Brexit on Question Time and respecting the Leave vote but only with a Deal 'that protects peoples' jobs'
i.e. Only Jezza's unicorn deal, that Labour will then campaign to reject.
loach is noted for the salient realities in his films, Dan Blake, Land And Freedom I particularly found thoughtful. But if you talk to the guy about politics It’s quickly clear he hasn’t a clue, like you say unicorns on rainbows farting vegan marshmallows Imo he leaves thinking to the screenwriter and producer, and directs, but directs well
To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
To be expected - it was a close fight between Con and UKIP in 2013, so rock safe in 2017. Be interesting to see any swing though - another Wiltshire Con defence coming up in a month, much better chance for Tories there.
To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
The signed stuff was with a big grin dropped in the bin, they had what they wanted, and they’ve told you as much all week
To be fair, Llandrindod is fairly close to nowhere.
The outgoing councillor seems to have been independent, then Plaid, then Tory, then independent, but retained a significant personal vote in his various forms.
I love local councils, much more fluidity than national politics (until recently). Who knows, the Labour group on your council might increase without elections!
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
What happened to Sir Graham Brady Old Lady’s leadership bid? He would at least grasp the basics of letter writing
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
The signed stuff was with a big grin dropped in the bin, they had what they wanted, and they’ve told you as much all week
I was quite surprised BJ didn't entrust it to Royal Mail without a stamp.
"Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
I was in Llandrindod at the weekend.I hadn't been there for 20 years although I am from Mid Wales.The town struck me as being very quiet, but the main hotel (The Metropole - a huge Victorian pile right in the middle of the town and pretty well run by a family) was heaving with societies, fishing groups (the Wye is nearby) and seemed to be thriving. There was an LD office just off the main street and there were a number of people in it early on Sunday. Weirdly I didn't see any election posters!
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
And he didn't sign it. And he wrote it on rice paper. With his fingers crossed. And he sat on his hand first so it felt like somebody else did it. Then he gave it somebody else and said "I am not telling you to send this" whilst winking and mugging furiously and pointing to the post box. Then he had brain surgery to make him forget he did it. Yes. That was it. It wasn't him at all. Oh dear me no...
Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.
On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?
Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
Sturgeon is a class act.
Most able politician in Britain by an absolute mile.
Salmond was a more effective campaigner for independence for Scotland as Boris is for Brexit
She delivered the landslide, not him.
She then lost the SNP majority at Holyrood the following year and lost almost half of SNP MPs the year after that.
Salmond took the SNP from nowhere to the Scottish government in 2007, a Holyrood majority in 2011 and an Independence referendum in 2014 where Yes got 45% even without the Brexit vote Sturgeon has had to exploit
Back to the 'almost half' guff, I thought you'd learnt your lesson after being schooled on the numbers.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
Sturgeon lost it then
Ah, from 'Yes got 45%' due to Salmond to 'Sturgeon lost it then' within minutes.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
I’m still waiting for Bunter’s resignation rather than his sending the letter, but fear I’m stuck in the wrong timeline
A copy of the Benn Act was sent unsigned, the only signed letter sent opposed extension
And he didn't sign it. And he wrote it on rice paper. With his fingers crossed. And he sat on his hand first so it felt like somebody else did it. Then he gave it somebody else and said "I am not telling you to send this" whilst winking and mugging furiously and pointing to the post box. Then he had brain surgery to make him forget he did it. Yes. That was it. It wasn't him at all. Oh dear me no...
Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.
On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?
12th December is around the time when uni students break-up for Christmas this year.
Has there been any analysis on who a winter election would likely benefit? Snow a possibility, likely rain and stormy weather. Probably low turnout overall. Good for the tories? Cant think many of those who are apathetic/sick of Brexit either way will be enthused by it. Remainers will be motivated as it will be their last ditch effort. Are students still at Uni then? that normally leads to higher turnout in student seats.
On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?
Snow is far more likely in Jan/Feb than Dec.
Students will start to break up from Universities in early Dec, and some are off for up to a month.
Even I might do a postal vote, I normally go and vote at 7am.
Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
Six figures? But but but but he’s a socialist right? So he must donate most of that to a charity or something. Surely?
Why doesn’t Jones Become a Labour MP to actually do something with his life, and growing into that responsibility would be a rite of passage into the next section of it and he would be much better for it.
As he currently earns a 6 figure salary as a Guardian columnist and does not want the pay cut
Comments
The govt used to look in control of events, even when it was bending and breaking the rules. Malign, but shaping the agenda. It was moving towards Oct 31.
It now doesn’t look in control of events any more. It looks weak. Weak and malign is not a good look. There is no clarity in its mission.
It may not be in the polls, but things have changed. If I were Labour, I would start not be feeling so negative about an election, but this needs to run on a bit.
Good news is the bawbags turned the corner 2 minutes later towards Queen St. station just as two police vans rocked up.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1187478992401485841
N.B. An 'armchair fan' is not a fan of armchairs.
Interesting to note that Hillary has not qualified for the November debate.
Again, what maths gives 21 as almost half of 56?
Also, Sturgeon was in charge of the SNP's indy campaign, not Salmond.
The Irish connection to the part of Bulgaria where the trailer was registered is very long standing. A large amount of money sloshing about in the Republican movement was laundered into property in the country. Designed to provide a nice revenue for the movement post-ceasefire. Terms will be used like 'organised crime' or 'dissident republicans'. The reality is that the Provos laundered that cash into investments and its been known for 10+ years that it went on.
Is there a connection with the unfortunates in the lorry? We will soon find out.
Buttigieg: up big
Warren: up medium
Biden & Sanders: up, but only because I've been selling Hillary
Hillary: I will need to remortgage my house
The field: up medium
Britain is booming and has been for some years.
Remaining is best now, I personally believe that, but that doesn't excuse pretending all will be simple and 'sane' if it happens.
Remind me where it states that Parliament is obliged to accept any old deal that the Tories come up with
God forbid they did say no extension - suddenly concern for scrutinising the deal would evaporate, even as ERGers abandoned it.
Take a look at page 6 and 7 of telegraph today and truth is Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election?
But that’s not how it’s coming across tonight. Big G can say Tories seem united behind this. That’s the genius of Cumming and Boris. Like Trump they control the verticals they control the horizontals
I mean come on! The man's a fucking bivalve. He's so dense light that he causes gravitational red shift. Every interview suggests that questions elicit the most recent lines-to-take wholly unencumbered by any cognitive process whatsoever.
Reverse ferreted quicker than when you chucked the DUP under the bus.
Now this - unwilling to try, unable to move.
The mans a frankie goes to Hollywood tribute act.
Very intelligent man, but as self reflective as a brick wall.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1187424632418295809
Whose control (the oilfields, that is) has been contracted out to Russia...
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1187454870900662277
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187487234603270151?s=20
Imo he leaves thinking to the screenwriter and producer, and directs, but directs well
"Go back to your constituencies and prepare to put on some votes, which won't translate into a massive uplift in seats."
On the face of it a winter election seems good for Tories and Lib Dems in England, worse for Labour. Although haven't most winter elections been either won by Labour or resulted in hung parliaments (1974, 1923)?
One tory hold, one libdem gain from tories.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1187492053556568066
Students will start to break up from Universities in early Dec, and some are off for up to a month.
Even I might do a postal vote, I normally go and vote at 7am.