Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn,
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait
Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg understands the government will abandon efforts to get its Brexit deal legislation through if MPs vote against the timetable this evening.
If the EU the offers a delay, as is expected, the government will try to push straight for a general election and would not put any more legislation through, essentially going on strike, she says.
But for elections and Tory unity it seems a moot point. If a future election or Tory unity means that there's a majority against an enforced extension then that will exist regardess of Clause 30 or a vote being scheduled. If in future there's a majority for Parliament enforcing an extension onto the executive then that too will exist regardless of Clause 30.
What matter surely is the numbers in Parliament not Clause 30. And if the numbers match now an extension will be enforced, if the numbers aren't there to force an extension they won't be there either way [though I highly doubt the executive would seek to not extend if negotiations are still ongoing and would only seek not to if talks have broken down].
Not going to happen in 2019 IMO.
It is a government of children, not adults...
Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.
What's different now is the imminent prospect of a No Deal departure. Once that passes, either because we have a long extension, or we have left the EU, then Corbyn will agree to an election.
It will be his chance to beat the Tories and it's the best way to silence his internal critics and to use the logic of FPTP to squeeze the Lib Dems.
Of course, I'm assuming that Johnson will still be willing to risk his occupancy of Number 10 with an election. If his deal reunites his party it's just possible that he might survive a Vote of No Confidence, and he might decide to try and use time pressure to force through a free trade agreement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367
Agreed.
It seems to me that if the Programme Motion goes through there is a majority in the Commons to 'Get Brexit Done' by 31/10. If it doesn't, there isn't. I don't think anyone opposed to the deal has yet said they'd back the Programme Motion have they?
Programme Motion tonight seems to be a proxy-MV.
No, they don't. The first rule of politics is to be able to count. Your post is an exercise in hot air, not mathematics.
Punchy stuff from the government and will be interested to see if this helps them get the numbers.
In any case, the "take No Deal off the table" excuse would have just as much as superficial plausibility this time as it did last time, wouldn't it? We're only talking about an extension until the end of January, maximum. That's not much time, especially with Xmas.
Quite the champion you've got there!
I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.
I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?
I expect the Programme Motion to be lost, but I think Johnson would win an indicative vote on his Deal.
That's why the government is trying to force the issue by saying they will pull the legislation if the programme motion fails. They want to persuade the swing votes to accept the timetable as a necessary part of the deal. It will be interesting to see how the swing MPs react.
I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
Johnson might even call it "glorious".
Hopefully it won't come to that but an extension looks most likely as this point given the cowardly delaying tactics of parliament.
Who knows though !
Mine too. Plus April-June 2020 Corbyn Leaving Date on Betfair at 5.2
They have it in their gift to vote for the deal, vote for R2, vote for revoke or vote for a GE.
They won't vote for the first and are utterly terrified of the other 3 options.
Ultimately, they can run but they can't hide.
Yes that would be ridiculous but little more so than the first prorogation. The Supreme Court would then have to decide between telling them how to run the country ("Stop throwing your toys out of the window", etc.) and letting them go to the people. Few would blame the judges for choosing the second option.
As soon as they pull the WAB, Jeremy Corbyn needs to VONC. The Commons may be an "absolute shower", but the Government is far more of one.
If Boris pulls it I don't think it can come back this session which means No Deal returns as the default. Called tomorrow an election not via a VoNC could be on November 28th
After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.
Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas.
Ah.
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1186629219104841728
1. It makes it very clear that by voting against the timetable MPs will effectively be voting down the agreement, so improving the chances of the timetable being approved and with it the agreement.
2. It also keeps open Johnson's hope of getting his deal through with the help of at least one EU government, which might refuse an extension in the expectation that Johnson would then reintroduce his bill after 31st October. At that point it would be passed at the speed of light by a parliament forced to choose between Johnson's deal and a continuation of trade on default WTO terms, albeit with some emergency sticking plasters bolted on the latter.
There is nothing wrong in extending things to discuss the bill in detail except for Boris's self-imposed deadline.
After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.
Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas."
I`ve just checked Betfair`s Next GE market and I`m surprised to see 2019 favorite ahead of 2020 (1.93 v 2.62).
What happens then?
Edit: I see that @OblitusSumMe beat me to it.
We aren't talking about 31/01/20 maximum. Once we leave the EU we aren't talking until the end of January, the next 'cliff edge' wouldn't be until 31/12/20. And if we don't leave the EU I suspect the EU will choose a new date giving us long enough for an election.
As I have said the only logical conclusion is that the government has decided that if they don't ram this bill through with minimal opportunity to amend they will never get it through at all, at least not in any recognisable form. I want Brexit as much as anybody and way more than most but this is irresponsible.
A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/british-journalists-have-become-part-of-johnsons-fake-news-machine/?fbclid=IwAR2eliqAWrMT8MqoTpn6f4qeZwSNc_Ai6Ag5E07jhGclVnkvG88LII6j25M
Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
Which means it doesn't matter what the LibDems and the SNP want, as Labour can control the timing, even allowing for 30 or so rebels ?
A vote of No confidence tomorrow results in an election on December 12th.
On Thursday we probably hit December 19th (although it may be the 12th - I'm not 100% sure of the complete technicalities).
Any later than next Wednesday and we are into Christmas week and that makes an election on January 9th very likely.
Edit to add - I suspect MPs will want an extension confirmed before a VoNC which given the time available probably moves things all such decisions past October 31st. And once past the 31st any vote of No Confidence does result in a January election.
Other options include just having another stupidly long campaign, though.
Cummings is herding remainers in to the abattoir.
The problem there is the same problem as with Boris's Brexit deal: even if there is a majority in theory for an election, bits of that majority would flake away once amendments to that Bill (for instance, votes at 16, votes for EU citizens) start getting introduced. And that's before even talking about the Lords, who PBTories seem to just assume would wave through an election, for reasons I can't understand.
And without an election the only game in town is Boris's deal.