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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more ga

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Marquee_Mark said: "I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?"

    You`ve got to be kidding me. Cruises are the province of lower middle classes (or upper working class, depending how you cut it). More money than taste. Will have voted to leave.

    I`ve got my hard hat on.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Instead of the Seal of Muhammad (pbuh) their dread black banner just has a tube of Voltarol on it.
  • Stocky said:

    Marquee_Mark said: "I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?"

    You`ve got to be kidding me. Cruises are the province of lower middle classes (or upper working class, depending how you cut it). More money than taste. Will have voted to leave.

    I`ve got my hard hat on.

    Have you ever been on a cruise and I voted remain
  • Stocky said:

    Marquee_Mark said: "I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?"

    You`ve got to be kidding me. Cruises are the province of lower middle classes (or upper working class, depending how you cut it). More money than taste. Will have voted to leave.

    I`ve got my hard hat on.

    The deplorables?
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet

    They will never bow to the Church of Rome or any of its proxies
    ...which they view as surrounding and besieging them, and as the power behind the European Union. And then the Tories go and tell them they've got to have EU customs officials in their ports...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlbmIMbKZa4
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Japanese Brexit coverage update: Everybody on this very serious news program is now laughing. This is unprecedented.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited October 2019

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet

    They will never bow to the Church of Rome or any of its proxies

    That's it
    Unfortunately for them, being very British has become quite unBritish and hardly anyone else gives a flying one about the Catholic Church.
    They do. View any Northern Ireland issue through the two viewpoints I posted and the DUP become very predictable.

    On social issues they are more or less American evangelicals (abortion etc).

    So view "putting any sort of border in the Irish Sea" through those two prisms and tell me what the result is
    Oh aye, it's true that anyone thinking NI Brexit was all about the bribes was way off the mark. I do wonder if UK pols' lack of understanding of the DUP was mirrored by them also being behind the times, ie they thought various Tories meant it when they said the Union was all important.

    It's always struck me how much the ultra Unionists and the Catholic Church in Ireland have in common over social issues. Just think what a hellhole they could make if they ever joined forces..
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    eek said:

    (Coming late to the article, and if someone has made the same point, then well done)

    What I find equally amazing, given the loss of the DUP, is how a party, with nominally only 288 MPs and 354 opposed is still in power.

    Yes, some of the independents can probably be relied upon. Elphick in Dover, and probably about 12-15 of the 'Rebel' Conservatives, but this will still only leave them with (top) about 304 MPs.

    Its a testament to how poor the 'rabble alliance' are that they can't agree a unified way forward. I'm firmly of the opinion that should Ed Miliband had found himself in this position in September 2019 (or even January 2019) he would be PM of a minority Labour administration now, proped up by LD and SNP support, and likely Brexit would be on the way to being cancelled.

    Johnson isn't that good at running rings round his opponents. Just his opponents are so bad, they make the current government look 'okay'.

    When we come down to things Corbyn always ends up being the issue.

    See my comment earlier where I said that Brexit is all Ed Miliband's and his £3 vote fault.
    Bit unfair since Ed campaigned in 2015 AGAINST holding a referendum. Not that he got much thanks from the Financial Times, The Independent and much else of what has become the Remain elite.
    If they'd elected John McDonnell instead in 2015 they'd by now have a socialist pro-EU manifesto.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    I can't imagine there would be many Remainers on a cruise, or at least not enough to credibly hope to win a fight. Mind you, losing fights is the norm for us Remainers so perhaps they're willing to take a pasting in the name of the cause.
    I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?
    "Goodwin's Three Tribes" are the three groups that Matthew Goodwin identifies as the drivers of Brexit. They are the poor, the retired, and wealthy social conservatives. If Goodwin is correct that a retired person is most likely to be a Leaver, and if I assume correctly that cruise passengers are overwhelmingly retired, then it is plausible that many, if not most, people on a cruise will be Leavers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet
    Exhibit A, m'lud: the Falkland Islanders......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Scotland's T20 World Cup Qualifier campaign suffered another setback with an embarrassing 24-run loss to Namibia.

    Its one thing losing to japan in the rugby, but namibia!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Big_G: "Have you ever been on a cruise and I voted remain"

    Good grief - no!
  • Scott_P said:
    What does Jim Fitzpatrick share with John Bercow, Bob Geldof, Digby Jones, Dame Judi Dench, Helmut Kohl and Margaret Thatcher?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Scott_P said:
    It's the third reading that counts - today's second reading just decides if it's worth looking at the bill in detail.

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1186614878414540800
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:
    Seems the logical route to me.

    Cummings will have war-gamed this and would no doubt be delighted with a 'People vs Parliament' GE.

    SNP apparently on-board and I see little reason for the LD's to turn down the opportunity of hacking lumps of flesh out of Labour while they can.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:

    Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax

    This is exactly backwards

    Brexit is BoZo's poll tax.

    He owns it, 100%. If it happens (I think it will), he will own the subsequent fall out.

    Brexit will be at least as despised as the Poll tax, and the Tories will suffer for it.
    It may and it may not. We cannot know how this pans out but we must leave and this is the deal that stops no deal
    Apart from Clause 30.

    You are not over the detail on this blinded by your Tory love.

    To me that Clause if not amended makes a Tory No Deal almost certain at the end of 2020.

    I keep asking this question but keep getting ignored. Clause 30 seems little different to clause 50(3) in operation.

    If in the future Parliament doesn't wish us to leave without an extension then what prevents Parliament from passing a future Benn Act to demand an extension?

    And if in the future Parliament doesn't want to demand an extension then Clause 30 is moot.

    So what's the big deal?
    The risk is that the Benn-Burt Act cane about because Parliament was able to control the agenda. There are lots of reasons - election, new Speaker, Tory unity - why this may not be possible in future
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    Crickey I actually agree with Mark Francois on something...

    "One of the great pleasures when we leave the European Union is this idiot behind me is going to have to get a proper job," says Conservative MP Mark Francois, as a shouting protester heckles him while he speaks to BBC News.

    "That's another great reason for passing this bill," the deputy chairman of the European Research Group adds.

    When is Francois going to get a proper job?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    If the Gov't has any sense it'll accept Hammond/Boles as a quid pro quo for 3rd reading and program motion votes.
    The trapdoor doesn't require renegotiation with the EU and is not wrecking.

    Customs Union amendment (To the WA) obviously is and 2nd ref amendment might as well be.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019

    Now that would be a politician cynically delaying Brexit.....

    In my view the magic date of 31 Oct is MASSIVE for Johnson. He has made it totemic, therefore it has - rightly - become so for the opposition too. The timetable vote is one which Johnson must not be allowed to win. If he does, people are on the pitch and it's all over - it's all over completely on his terms. An unqualified political triumph following which a Con majority in a GE is verging on slam dunk.

    Never never never.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Gov't has any sense it'll accept Hammond/Boles as a quid pro quo for 3rd reading and program motion votes.
    The trapdoor doesn't require renegotiation with the EU and is not wrecking.

    Customs Union amendment (To the WA) obviously is and 2nd ref amendment might as well be.

    And then it is up to the voters whether they can still "pull the plug" - by putting in place a majority for Boris....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OllyT said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    Question: If MPs attempt to amend the deal so that it is subject to a confirmatory referendum, and assuming this amendment is passes, what then?

    Am I correct in thinking that a referendum has to be part of primary legislation which can only be forwarded by the government of the day?

    Putting it another way: for there to be a referendum requires the government to want one.

    If a referendum passes Boris will withdraw the bill

    However, the numbers are not there and it is generally accepted that it will not pass
    This bill also won't pass. See TSE's post below and you will see that it merely delays No Deal by 15 months.

    No party and I suspect most of the Tory rebels are not going to support that clause.

    So once again we are in limbo but it's now certain Bozo can't be trusted.
    I think that is correct, that clause is going to be very significant. We know that the ERG strategy will be try to bring about No Deal by default and nobody trusts Johnson to stop them. It's clear that that is why they have all jumped on board Johnson's deal without a murmur of protest

    Even if the deal still does get through then this issue will feature very prominently in the upcoming GE and will make it harder for Johnson to win a big majority. He can't rule out No Deal happening because he can't guarantee a trade deal will be in place at the end of the transition period. Any attempts at a deal will be subject to all the usual ERG wrecking tactics.

    Every Tory candidate and politician is going to get asked the same question "Are you prepared to take us out with no deal at the end of the transition period?"
    You are making a mistake to conflate No Deal vs FTA with No Deal vs WA.

    FTA is about upside (with some compromises) but WA is about long term restrictions

    If, for example, the government can’t persuade the ERG that a market access vs level playing field trade off is worthwhile you negotiate a different deal (with lower upside and fewer restrictions).

    It makes the cost/benefit calculation different
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    edited October 2019
    Some leavers are no doubt racist - but I think it unfair and incorrect to level this against the majority of leavers. Mann`s example is one that we all should be concerned about.
    So why did the business decide to recruit from overseas? That's the interesting question.

    Phillip Thompson said:

    'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.

    If you're going to cast racist aspersions then how about rather than naming Midlands and Northern towns and cities then going vague you name names. There's dozens of leave voters here, if "every leaver" supports turfing out people who legally live here you shouldn't have any difficulty naming one here with that view.

    Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'

    Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.

    I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.

    That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.

    Edit - I need to learn how block quotes work...

    I'd be interested in your perception as to whether Yvette will survive in NP&C in the next General Election.

    She had nearly 60 per cent of the vote in 2017, but the constituency was nearly 70 per cent leave.
    I think she’ll hang on. Though Labour did lose a previously rock solid Labour council seat to a Lib Dem usurper this year in Knottingley (though avowedly anti-Brexit the Lib Dem guy was supported because he does a lot locally). There are very noisy pro-Brexit voices here, but I think many folk are quietly thinking voting leave was a mistake. BoJo’s not popular.
    For Yvette to lose someone else has to win. As neither the Tories nor LibDems look remotely plausible in her seat, then the question answers itself. She will win easily with protest votes pointlessly drifting to Brexit Party in fourth place.
    I agree with that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    I can't imagine there would be many Remainers on a cruise, or at least not enough to credibly hope to win a fight. Mind you, losing fights is the norm for us Remainers so perhaps they're willing to take a pasting in the name of the cause.
    Then you have clearly never been on one. 90% of people have little or no interest in politics at all. They are out there living their lives - it includes vast numbers who vote for all parties and all positions - enjoying cruises, etc, etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet
    Exhibit A, m'lud: the Falkland Islanders......
    The bennies are indeed fond of the fleg but they aren't the same league as the drum bashers or even, that most curious species of relict, the Scottish unionist.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet
    Exhibit A, m'lud: the Falkland Islanders......
    At the time, a lot of Unionists in Northern Ireland viewed Maggie's response to the Falklands as a Good Thing.

    If she would not throw the Falklanders under a bus at 8,000 miles of distance... well, Northern Ireland is only 25 miles of distance.

    The Falklanders and Unionists are probably the same breed of cat.... ;)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    I can't imagine there would be many Remainers on a cruise, or at least not enough to credibly hope to win a fight. Mind you, losing fights is the norm for us Remainers so perhaps they're willing to take a pasting in the name of the cause.
    I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?
    "Goodwin's Three Tribes" are the three groups that Matthew Goodwin identifies as the drivers of Brexit. They are the poor, the retired, and wealthy social conservatives. If Goodwin is correct that a retired person is most likely to be a Leaver, and if I assume correctly that cruise passengers are overwhelmingly retired, then it is plausible that many, if not most, people on a cruise will be Leavers.
    Wrong in so many ways.
  • Phillip Thompson said:

    'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.

    Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'

    Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.

    I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.

    That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.

    Edit - I need to learn how block quotes work...

    I'd be interested in your perception as to whether Yvette will survive in NP&C in the next General Election.

    She had nearly 60 per cent of the vote in 2017, but the constituency was nearly 70 per cent leave.
    I think she’ll hang on. Though Labour did lose a previously rock solid Labour council seat to a Lib Dem usurper this year in Knottingley (though avowedly anti-Brexit the Lib Dem guy was supported because he does a lot locally). There are very noisy pro-Brexit voices here, but I think many folk are quietly thinking voting leave was a mistake. BoJo’s not popular.
    For Yvette to lose someone else has to win. As neither the Tories nor LibDems look remotely plausible in her seat, then the question answers itself. She will win easily with protest votes pointlessly drifting to Brexit Party in fourth place.
    I'd agree with that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Which way does the speaker vote on a program motion vote if its a tie ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet

    They will never bow to the Church of Rome or any of its proxies

    That's it
    Unfortunately for them, being very British has become quite unBritish and hardly anyone else gives a flying one about the Catholic Church.
    They do. View any Northern Ireland issue through the two viewpoints I posted and the DUP become very predictable.

    On social issues they are more or less American evangelicals (abortion etc).

    So view "putting any sort of border in the Irish Sea" through those two prisms and tell me what the result is
    Oh aye, it's true that anyone thinking NI Brexit was all about the bribes was way off the mark. I do wonder if UK pols' lack of understanding of the DUP was mirrored by them also being behind the times, ie they thought various Tories meant it when they said the Union was all important.

    It's always struck me how much the ultra Unionists and the Catholic Church in Ireland have in common over social issues. Just think what a hellhole they could make if they ever joined forces..
    :+1:

    Luckily for the whole of Ireland, the influence of churches is on the slide, but not quickly enough for my liking
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    If a 2nd reading on a bill goes through but the program motion is then defeated what normally happens ?

    I believe it just means the government can’t guillotine the debates ( look at the Maastricht debates...)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    eek said:

    Crickey I actually agree with Mark Francois on something...

    "One of the great pleasures when we leave the European Union is this idiot behind me is going to have to get a proper job," says Conservative MP Mark Francois, as a shouting protester heckles him while he speaks to BBC News.

    "That's another great reason for passing this bill," the deputy chairman of the European Research Group adds.

    If a person can afford to spend their time heckling outside Parliament they clearly have enough money not to need a proper job.
    Mr Stop Brexit is paid. He receives housing (a very very nice place in fact) and living expenses from a load of remain supporting donors.
    Good for him. The whining from feather-bedded MPs and the TV networks about these protesters is pathetic. If they want peace and quiet, use a bloody TV studio. Otherwise accept that this is part of democracy and quit blubbing.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Stocky said:

    GIN1138 said "We'll then go off and running into a general election IMO."

    Again this assertion is made and again I ask where this mythical GE is coming from? By which mechanism?

    Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that.
    Where does the minority govt get that "simple majority" from? Hand waving and bluster will not work.

    Maybe they should have thought of that before they fired MPs and alienated allies....
    Well quite. And it's hard to think of a time when there have been more MPs in the house for whom voting for election is simply voting for their own ejection. Especially any of the 21 Tory Conscientious Objectors who want to get back into the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Will there be a division on 2nd reading ?

    Surely in SNP/LD interest to flush Labour out on it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said: "Which way does the speaker vote on a program motion vote if its a tie ?"

    He has to retain the status-quo.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    eek said:

    Crickey I actually agree with Mark Francois on something...

    "One of the great pleasures when we leave the European Union is this idiot behind me is going to have to get a proper job," says Conservative MP Mark Francois, as a shouting protester heckles him while he speaks to BBC News.

    "That's another great reason for passing this bill," the deputy chairman of the European Research Group adds.

    If a person can afford to spend their time heckling outside Parliament they clearly have enough money not to need a proper job.
    Mr Stop Brexit is paid. He receives housing (a very very nice place in fact) and living expenses from a load of remain supporting donors.
    Good for him. The whining from feather-bedded MPs and the TV networks about these protesters is pathetic. If they want peace and quiet, use a bloody TV studio. Otherwise accept that this is part of democracy and quit blubbing.
    I agree with that. There's a few always on TV like Mr Stop Brexit and Brexit Girl that can't do the ardent remainer cause any good, so the more exposure the better!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said: "Which way does the speaker vote on a program motion vote if its a tie ?"

    He has to retain the status-quo.

    So supporting the Govt.'s timeline?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Instead of the Seal of Muhammad (pbuh) their dread black banner just has a tube of Voltarol on it.
    I love your posts. I bet you're an obnoxious snarky bastard in real life, but you have a genius for this kind of thing.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    My cruise of 24 days was 98% British and not at anytime was Brexit discussed
    Of course not, if it was banned.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @MikeSmithson said "One thing that struck me were the expressions of surprise from Brexit supporting politicians and the media about the DUP being ready to compromise the effort to leave the EU. Their lack of understanding of Irish politics over two centuries was extraordinary."

    Are you seriously contending that professional politicians who are in close proximity to the DUP (HoC every week) did not grasp the basic tenet of Unionism and especially the intolerant variety supported by the DUP?

    That is incredible. And it says a lot about the Tory hierarchy, none of it good.

    They are expressing surprise. That’s not the same being surprised
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    felix said:

    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    I can't imagine there would be many Remainers on a cruise, or at least not enough to credibly hope to win a fight. Mind you, losing fights is the norm for us Remainers so perhaps they're willing to take a pasting in the name of the cause.
    I would have though Remainers were EXACTLY the people who go on cruises. All that disposable income. How many people from Hartlepool do you find on cruises?
    "Goodwin's Three Tribes" are the three groups that Matthew Goodwin identifies as the drivers of Brexit. They are the poor, the retired, and wealthy social conservatives. If Goodwin is correct that a retired person is most likely to be a Leaver, and if I assume correctly that cruise passengers are overwhelmingly retired, then it is plausible that many, if not most, people on a cruise will be Leavers.
    Wrong in so many ways.
    Goodwin is on Twitter if you would like to debate it with him.
  • If Boris does get his programme motion through, what is to stop the bill getting held up in the Lords?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet

    They will never bow to the Church of Rome or any of its proxies

    That's it
    Unfortunately for them, being very British has become quite unBritish and hardly anyone else gives a flying one about the Catholic Church.
    They do. View any Northern Ireland issue through the two viewpoints I posted and the DUP become very predictable.

    On social issues they are more or less American evangelicals (abortion etc).

    So view "putting any sort of border in the Irish Sea" through those two prisms and tell me what the result is
    Oh aye, it's true that anyone thinking NI Brexit was all about the bribes was way off the mark. I do wonder if UK pols' lack of understanding of the DUP was mirrored by them also being behind the times, ie they thought various Tories meant it when they said the Union was all important.

    It's always struck me how much the ultra Unionists and the Catholic Church in Ireland have in common over social issues. Just think what a hellhole they could make if they ever joined forces..
    :+1:

    Luckily for the whole of Ireland, the influence of churches is on the slide, but not quickly enough for my liking
    In rural Ireland particularly the churches are still a powerful force
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Tabman said:


    So why did the business decide to recruit from overseas? That's the interesting question.

    Because the Poles turn up on time and work hard, rather than failing to show up at interviews and moaning?

    The business has to pay the same wages, but they get a productivity boost.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    Japanese interviewer: So you say Northern Ireland is trying to promote tourism, what attractions are there?
    Expert: There's a museum dedicated to the sinking of the Titanic

    Giant's Causeway for starters
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Dura_Ace said: "Instead of the Seal of Muhammad (pbuh) their dread black banner just has a tube of Voltarol on it."

    Recidivist said: "I love your posts. I bet you're an obnoxious snarky bastard in real life, but you have a genius for this kind of thing."

    Dura_Ace - are you Dominic Cummings?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215

    If Boris does get his programme motion through, what is to stop the bill getting held up in the Lords?

    Well Lord True will be supporting the Gov't.

    Panick to filibuster for as long as he can ?
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said: "Which way does the speaker vote on a program motion vote if its a tie ?"

    He has to retain the status-quo.

    He's supposed to vote for the status quo, and he's also supposed to vote for further debate. So precedent in the form of the Speaker Denison rule isn't much help when a cliffedge looms and it's not clear whether or not an extension will or would be granted and in any case it's not in Parliament's gift.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    kinabalu said:

    Now that would be a politician cynically delaying Brexit.....

    In my view the magic date of 31 Oct is MASSIVE for Johnson. He has made it totemic, therefore it has - rightly - become so for the opposition too. The timetable vote is one which Johnson must not be allowed to win. If he does, people are on the pitch and it's all over - it's all over completely on his terms. An unqualified political triumph following which a Con majority in a GE is verging on slam dunk.

    Never never never.
    I think it would have been had he not got a deal and we were staying in the EU with no sense of the road forward. But two things have helped him since then. He has a deal supported by Leavers, and Farage, stupidly, came out in support of an extension.

    From the perspective of Leavers, Boris is the only one fighting to come out of the EU on time and did everything feasibly asked of him, against all odds. Now it is parliamemt who they will blame, people who insisted we delay due to a deal, but are now delaying using procedurally trickery even though we have a deal.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Crickey I actually agree with Mark Francois on something...

    "One of the great pleasures when we leave the European Union is this idiot behind me is going to have to get a proper job," says Conservative MP Mark Francois, as a shouting protester heckles him while he speaks to BBC News.

    "That's another great reason for passing this bill," the deputy chairman of the European Research Group adds.

    If a person can afford to spend their time heckling outside Parliament they clearly have enough money not to need a proper job.
    Mr Stop Brexit is paid. He receives housing (a very very nice place in fact) and living expenses from a load of remain supporting donors.
    Good for him. The whining from feather-bedded MPs and the TV networks about these protesters is pathetic. If they want peace and quiet, use a bloody TV studio. Otherwise accept that this is part of democracy and quit blubbing.
    I agree with that. There's a few always on TV like Mr Stop Brexit and Brexit Girl that can't do the ardent remainer cause any good, so the more exposure the better!
    Sure, agreed. I don't think any of them on either side of the Leave/Remain divide are particularly effective. But I sure as hell wouldn't want to see them stopped because a bunch of crybaby MPs and soft TV hacks find them inconvenient.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    A programme motion has been passed on this thread.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    PClipp said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mango said:



    All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite

    Because the leader is a stain on humanity.

    You have gone down in my estimation.
    With the greatest respect that is not really my concern

    On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
    Your conversion to the cause of the Borislamic State really has been something.
    I blame the cruise. Perhaps cruise ships act as some kind of Leaverstan madrassas, radicalising the baby boomers amid the all you can eat buffets.
    Most cruises explicitly ban any talk about Brexit - the cruise companies have got fed up with the fights it provokes.
    My cruise of 24 days was 98% British and not at anytime was Brexit discussed
    Of course not, if it was banned.

    I didn't know this. Is it actually true that Brexit chatter is banned on cruises as it causes fights?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Now that would be a politician cynically delaying Brexit.....

    In my view the magic date of 31 Oct is MASSIVE for Johnson. He has made it totemic, therefore it has - rightly - become so for the opposition too. The timetable vote is one which Johnson must not be allowed to win. If he does, people are on the pitch and it's all over - it's all over completely on his terms. An unqualified political triumph following which a Con majority in a GE is verging on slam dunk.

    Never never never.
    I think it would have been had he not got a deal and we were staying in the EU with no sense of the road forward. But two things have helped him since then. He has a deal supported by Leavers, and Farage, stupidly, came out in support of an extension.

    From the perspective of Leavers, Boris is the only one fighting to come out of the EU on time and did everything feasibly asked of him, against all odds. Now it is parliamemt who they will blame, people who insisted we delay due to a deal, but are now delaying using procedurally trickery even though we have a deal.
    And can these people get a million and half bodies on the street?
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet

    They will never bow to the Church of Rome or any of its proxies

    That's it
    Unfortunately for them, being very British has become quite unBritish and hardly anyone else gives a flying one about the Catholic Church.
    They do. View any Northern Ireland issue through the two viewpoints I posted and the DUP become very predictable.

    On social issues they are more or less American evangelicals (abortion etc).

    So view "putting any sort of border in the Irish Sea" through those two prisms and tell me what the result is
    Oh aye, it's true that anyone thinking NI Brexit was all about the bribes was way off the mark. I do wonder if UK pols' lack of understanding of the DUP was mirrored by them also being behind the times, ie they thought various Tories meant it when they said the Union was all important.

    It's always struck me how much the ultra Unionists and the Catholic Church in Ireland have in common over social issues. Just think what a hellhole they could make if they ever joined forces..
    :+1:

    Luckily for the whole of Ireland, the influence of churches is on the slide, but not quickly enough for my liking
    In rural Ireland particularly the churches are still a powerful force
    The school system is very heavily segregated on religious lines.
  • SunnyJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems the logical route to me.

    Cummings will have war-gamed this and would no doubt be delighted with a 'People vs Parliament' GE.

    SNP apparently on-board and I see little reason for the LD's to turn down the opportunity of hacking lumps of flesh out of Labour while they can.
    "Cummings will have war-gamed this...." I seem to see this a lot. All I can say is that I'm glad he's not been in charge of any military campaigns given that none of his smart-arse schemes seem to have worked out so far. Still, it's one of those claims where you can claim victory regardless of the final outcomes because "...he's war-gamed this", because neither you, nor I, nor anybody else have the faintest idea of what they think they're up to.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    The reaction since the referendum has been very different from Cameron and Osborne. Cameron seems to have been similar to my position, upset about the result but accepting it. Osborne seems to have had the EU as rather fundamental to his identity.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said: "Instead of the Seal of Muhammad (pbuh) their dread black banner just has a tube of Voltarol on it."

    Recidivist said: "I love your posts. I bet you're an obnoxious snarky bastard in real life, but you have a genius for this kind of thing."

    Dura_Ace - are you Dominic Cummings?

    No. Although we have both lived in Russia and fucking hate the tory party - the similarity ends there.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    If you ever think you have a shitty job, there's a guy on Japanese telly right now trying to explain the DUP's position on Brexit

    Crikey, I can hardly explain the DUP to myself. I can't imagine what the Japanese make of them.
    Why does everyone find the DUP hard to understand?

    They are more British than anyone else on the planet
    Exhibit A, m'lud: the Falkland Islanders......
    The bennies are indeed fond of the fleg but they aren't the same league as the drum bashers or even, that most curious species of relict, the Scottish unionist.
    Being British is really most defined by Scots. They drove the Empire and some of the greatest regiments in the British Army. It is why Malc talks such shit when he tries to make out Scotland is a colony. the Scots were the colonisers, and often the oppressors.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    NEW THREAD
  • If Boris does get his programme motion through, what is to stop the bill getting held up in the Lords?

    he can't exactly reply on the Salisbury Convention
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,192

    Japanese Brexit coverage update: Everybody on this very serious news program is now laughing. This is unprecedented.

    I went to see a stand-up comedian here in Cologne on Saturday. The comic, who as they say here has a "migration background" ie his parents were from Turkey, asked "is there anyone in the audience with a migration background" and a few of us put up our hands. So he asked people where they are from "I'm from Poland" "I'm from Pakistan" "My father is from Turkey", the guy wasn't making any jokes just quickly going through the audience. So he asks me and I say "I'm from England", the guy says nothing, but just pauses, and the whole audience bursts into laughter.

    not so long ago most Germans admired Britain. after the referendum result I got a lot of sympathy. now it's just laughter.
  • Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax

    This is exactly backwards

    Brexit is BoZo's poll tax.

    He owns it, 100%. If it happens (I think it will), he will own the subsequent fall out.

    Brexit will be at least as despised as the Poll tax, and the Tories will suffer for it.
    It may and it may not. We cannot know how this pans out but we must leave and this is the deal that stops no deal
    Apart from Clause 30.

    You are not over the detail on this blinded by your Tory love.

    To me that Clause if not amended makes a Tory No Deal almost certain at the end of 2020.

    I keep asking this question but keep getting ignored. Clause 30 seems little different to clause 50(3) in operation.

    If in the future Parliament doesn't wish us to leave without an extension then what prevents Parliament from passing a future Benn Act to demand an extension?

    And if in the future Parliament doesn't want to demand an extension then Clause 30 is moot.

    So what's the big deal?
    The risk is that the Benn-Burt Act cane about because Parliament was able to control the agenda. There are lots of reasons - election, new Speaker, Tory unity - why this may not be possible in future
    Speaker could be a change although I suspect if we ended up in similar situation then a future Speaker will folow Bercow's precedent since the precedent has now been set.

    But for elections and Tory unity it seems a moot point. If a future election or Tory unity means that there's a majority against an enforced extension then that will exist regardess of Clause 30 or a vote being scheduled. If in future there's a majority for Parliament enforcing an extension onto the executive then that too will exist regardless of Clause 30.

    What matter surely is the numbers in Parliament not Clause 30. And if the numbers match now an extension will be enforced, if the numbers aren't there to force an extension they won't be there either way [though I highly doubt the executive would seek to not extend if negotiations are still ongoing and would only seek not to if talks have broken down].
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019
    felix said:

    Then you have clearly never been on one. 90% of people have little or no interest in politics at all. They are out there living their lives - it includes vast numbers who vote for all parties and all positions - enjoying cruises, etc, etc.

    It must surely be true that the biggest single characteristic those on cruises have in common is a liking for cruises. However, it IS interesting to postulate on the Leave Remain split. I would say, given the age profile of the referendum vote and the age profile of cruise passengers, it is virtually certain that Leavers would be in a clear majority. This would be even more pronounced in certain circumstances. If there were to be an incident with an iceberg, for example, the majority for Leave would probably be overwhelming.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    Andrew: I love pineapple on pizza, especially with some chillis to balance the sweetness.

    But I`m a food slut. Love a Pizza Hut - their salad bar is lush.

    If you like BJs they call it a Sweet Pig
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Nigelb said:

    Pretty horrible borrowing figures...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/22/borrowing-increase-chancellor-javid-budget-brexit-spending
    Alongside a 5.4% rise in day-to-day government spending on public services for the year to date, the ONS said tax revenues rose by only 2.8%, pulled back by the biggest six-month fall in corporation tax since 2013 and a dip in fuel duty payments.

    In the first six months since the start of the current tax year in April, borrowing has hit £40.3bn, 21.6% higher than the same period in 2018, when it was just £33.2bn, the ONS said....

    A dip in fuel duty payments is going to become a regular problem in these numbers. It’s £28bn a year, cars are getting way more fuel efficient, electric cars are being susbsidised and are getting cheaper quickly, and more people are living in cities and don’t need a car.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty horrible borrowing figures...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/22/borrowing-increase-chancellor-javid-budget-brexit-spending
    Alongside a 5.4% rise in day-to-day government spending on public services for the year to date, the ONS said tax revenues rose by only 2.8%, pulled back by the biggest six-month fall in corporation tax since 2013 and a dip in fuel duty payments.

    In the first six months since the start of the current tax year in April, borrowing has hit £40.3bn, 21.6% higher than the same period in 2018, when it was just £33.2bn, the ONS said....

    A dip in fuel duty payments is going to become a regular problem in these numbers. It’s £28bn a year, cars are getting way more fuel efficient, electric cars are being susbsidised and are getting cheaper quickly, and more people are living in cities and don’t need a car.
    Yes, of course. And even this morning government was talking about adding to the EV incentives.
    At some point they'll have to consider alternate taxation arrangements, but there will be a significant number of years during the transition where that is going to be quite difficult - and even more so in a manner which maintains revenue.

    And government doesn't exactly have a great record in dealing with the difficult stuff.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    I would say, given the age profile of the referendum vote and the age profile of cruise passengers, it is virtually certain that Leavers would be in a clear majority. g.

    Over simplified demographics and simplistic attitudinal insight.

    I live a Cotswold village dominated by retired diplomats and academics. AFAIK, none of our neighbours has ever gone on a cruise, except as a guest lecturer (when it's their own money, they spend their hols trekking Himalayan foothills). The Remain:Leave split is roughly 80:20, and they still talk with puzzled anger about the time they elected (briefly) a Tory district councillor.

    Five miles away, a superficially similar village, with poor links to Oxford, is dominated by retired honchi of medium-sized, UK-oriented, corporations. They do take cruises, did vote Leave - and used to vote Tory unthinkingly. But no more.

    They'll certainly ensure they have a postal vote sorted before leaving for this winter's cruise, and they'll certainly vote LD in the districts come next May. But though they still tend towards Leave, they say they'll never vote Tory again - and as long as the sexpest runs the party, they probably won't. They'd certainly vote Tory in a GE if the Tories got a trustworthy leader (Hammond's the name that crops up most), but anyone in the current Cabinet is now beyond the pale.

    And their disdain for the spivs destroying real Conservatism is so strong, more and more of them are seriously considering switching to Remain if we have another referendum.

    Especially if we stop calling it a "People's Vote"
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32141412

    Business backs Cameron.

    The alternative was chaos under Ed Miliband.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Many people have said that Boris asking for an extension won't harm him, because he was forced to by Remainers. So, if Boris truly does have enough brexit Street cred now to not be destroyed by the Benn Act, why are we making such a rush for the 31st anyway? Why can't Boris just stand in front of Downing Street and say "hey I know I said I wanted the 31st but clearly the Remainers won't let me etc, as you can see we have my wonderful new brexit deal backed by the ERG, let's take the time do it properly, and extend until the 31st of Jan. No big deal in the grand scheme of things"
This discussion has been closed.