I do not buy the No Deal scenario next July/December. Having resolved the Irish border question, it is now unequivoically the case that GB will be massively more harmed by a crash-out than anyone else. There is literally no leverage in keeping it on the table. It can only do GB harm as it maintains uncertainty and signals to all businesses with significant interests in the single market that they are best off preparing to leave. I cannot allow myself to believe that even the former Conservative and Unionist party would be that stupid. Am I being hopelessly naive?
Yes and no. You’re naive to think that large numbers of people won’t think No Deal is a source of leverage and demand that we threaten it, but probably not to think that the government would never go through with it.
Strip away the ornamentation, and that's what happened with the WA. Boris is paying the money, the UK is applying EU rules in NI, and the checks are between NI and GB. Yes, there is a way for NI to exit these arrangements, but not one that will be used in reality.
Any deal done to apply from the end of 2020, or even 2022, will probably be largely on the EU's terms, because the EU can do the maths of who needs who more in the short term. And Boris may well get away with that.
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
Just because a person changes the colour of the rosette they wear that doesn't change the person you voted for at the election for they are the elected representative for that Parliament.
Perhaps the party should have picked a more loyal candidate but that's an issue for the party not the constituency.
Being blunt, if you believe there should be by-elections when people leave a party you seem to believe MPs are merely delegates of their party leadership - and that isn't the case.
And given how much the views of your party leadership have moved to the right over the past 6 months I would repeat a suggestion I made back in September.
If Boris is so desperate for an election he could instruct what's left of the Tory party to take the Chiltern Hundreds and hold byelections.
Whilst I wouldn't argue with the thrust of your post from a technical standpoint the implications for the electoral chances of those politicians hiding behind your argument are grave.
Boles has tabled a 'trapdoor' amendment to make extension to 2022 unless commons votes against. If I were the govt i'd accept it in return for programme motion support from the 21
I have no problem with that but the ERG could end up sabotaging their brexit
Not if they are thinking straight, there will be an election before July 2020 and they'll either have the votes to overturn or not and it wont matter anyway
Boles has tabled a 'trapdoor' amendment to make extension to 2022 unless commons votes against. If I were the govt i'd accept it in return for programme motion support from the 21
Makes perfect sense, especially if you believe there will be an election in the next 6 months as it then becomes a cost-free option.
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
Just because a person changes the colour of the rosette they wear that doesn't change the person you voted for at the election for they are the elected representative for that Parliament.
Perhaps the party should have picked a more loyal candidate but that's an issue for the party not the constituency.
Being blunt, if you believe there should be by-elections when people leave a party you seem to believe MPs are merely delegates of their party leadership - and that isn't the case.
And given how much the views of your party leadership have moved to the right over the past 6 months I would repeat a suggestion I made back in September.
If Boris is so desperate for an election he could instruct what's left of the Tory party to take the Chiltern Hundreds and hold byelections.
Whilst I wouldn't argue with the thrust of your post from a technical standpoint the implications for the electoral chances of those politicians hiding behind your argument are grave.
Yep but all Political careers end in failure - so it's not something to worry about.
Boles has tabled a 'trapdoor' amendment to make extension to 2022 unless commons votes against. If I were the govt i'd accept it in return for programme motion support from the 21
I have no problem with that but the ERG could end up sabotaging their brexit
Just a caveat, not the extension now
The money we are paying into the EU is only agreed until 31st December 2020. It's why the date is there even though the time frame never made sense.
Sorting out the new budget is going to be expensive especially when we don't have any say in the budget talks, there is a gap that needs to be filled and some countries want new sweeties.
True big g is losing it, " this is the deal that stops no deal". Surely as he watches sky news all day, he understands the position after the transition period.
Yes I do and it is a risk.
However, that is for a new HOC to deal with and the anger more delay will create on top of the already feverish attitudes is going to make mps lives very difficult and labour mps in leave seats even more so
Why should we have a new HoC - we elected this one post the referendum as our representatives to decide how best to leave - and that is what they are doing.
The fact that Parliament is as divided as the general population is surely a feature of this Parliament rather than a weakness.
Or do you believe MPs should be delegates for their loudest (and angriest) constituents.
By general consent this HOC is not fit for purpose and needs to be disbanded for the sake of democracy. There are far too many mps who should have had by elections but who carrry on without a democratic mandate from their constituents
I can understand why many are scared of an election but the SNP are most certainly not and the Lib Dems should be very content to face the electorate
I therefore cannot see labour being able to withstand the tidal wave for an election much longer
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
The mps who have defected were elected on their manifesto and not someone elses.
They lose democratic legitimacy with their electorate and I hope in the next Parliament the mps will pass an act to see any mp who changes party has to submit to a by election within 28 days
Which would be a valid argument were the Government to be following that manifesto but it isn't - and why should an MP continue to stand for a party if both the leadership changes and the plans of the new leadership differ from the manifesto.
In my previous comment I suggested that the best thing for Boris and the Tory party to do would be to take the Chiltern Hundreds and call byelections.
Given how far Boris and the new Party leadership has deviated from the manifesto their were elected upon it seems you agree they should seek re-election.
Re your last sentence I agree all mps should seek re-election in a GE
After being such an advocate for the views of the Unionist minority in NI, you're now chucking them under the bus. I wonder what can have caused this volte-face?
HYUFD has also been a relentless campaigner for a huge increase in NHS funding, and a tireless advocate for the left-behind communities of the post-industrial North and Midlands over the last four decades.
True big g is losing it, " this is the deal that stops no deal". Surely as he watches sky news all day, he understands the position after the transition period.
Yes I do and it is a risk.
However, that is for a new HOC to deal with and the anger more delay will create on top of the already feverish attitudes is going to make mps lives very difficult and labour mps in leave seats even more so
Why should we have a new HoC - we elected this one post the referendum as our representatives to decide how best to leave - and that is what they are doing.
The fact that Parliament is as divided as the general population is surely a feature of this Parliament rather than a weakness.
Or do you believe MPs should be delegates for their loudest (and angriest) constituents.
By general consent this HOC is not fit for purpose and needs to be disbanded for the sake of democracy. There are far too many mps who should have had by elections but who carrry on without a democratic mandate from their constituents
I can understand why many are scared of an election but the SNP are most certainly not and the Lib Dems should be very content to face the electorate
I therefore cannot see labour being able to withstand the tidal wave for an election much longer
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
Just because a person changes the colour of the rosette they wear that doesn't change the person you voted for at the election for they are the elected representative for that Parliament.
Perhaps the party should have picked a more loyal candidate but that's an issue for the party not the constituency.
Being blunt, if you believe there should be by-elections when people leave a party you seem to believe MPs are merely delegates of their party leadership - and that isn't the case..
Even in European elections, when we do vote for the rosette rather than the individual, I think the elected individual can leave the party without ceding their seat to the next person on the list. Not sure on what happens in the Welsh and Scottish assemoblies.
blueblue said: "Surely you're not saying that Labour will be too cowardly to hold an election and / or too shit to win one by the end of 2020?!"
LP is just using the FTPA to it`s own advantages. Act needs repealing. It can`t be right that a minority government is held hostage in this way, with the leader of the opposition having the sole ability to trigger an election when he likes.
Like the Community Charge it was designed by Oliver - "another fine mess" - Letwin. Truly a person who is too clever by half.
MarqueeMark said"Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that."
You mean by a seperate Bill for the purpose? This would be amendable for one thing and for another I think Labour could block it if they can keep remainer alliance cross party support intact. Let the Tories stew in their own juices.
Government could try a VONC in itself, but this (in addition to the embarrassment) would open the door to a possible GNU led by Corbyn and loss of control over election timing, and they won`t get the 2/3 majority for the other FTPA provision (already tried and failed twice).
@Southamobserver The Tories might in time decide to go WTO. Should we avoid an election forever so they can't get a majority ?
Not forever but if the Tory minority is bonkers while there's a parliamentary non-bonkers majority then it would make sense to form a non-bonkers government until the end of the term...
@MikeSmithson said "One thing that struck me were the expressions of surprise from Brexit supporting politicians and the media about the DUP being ready to compromise the effort to leave the EU. Their lack of understanding of Irish politics over two centuries was extraordinary."
Are you seriously contending that professional politicians who are in close proximity to the DUP (HoC every week) did not grasp the basic tenet of Unionism and especially the intolerant variety supported by the DUP?
That is incredible. And it says a lot about the Tory hierarchy, none of it good.
The British establishment has never understood Irish politics, has never tried to understand Irish politics and has never wanted to understand Irish politics.
It’s the reason why 26 counties of Ireland left the Union and the remaining six will soon follow.
On the latest polling the Tories will pick up enough Labour Leave seats to get a majority without the DUP anyway to ensure the Boris Deal is delivered.
The DUP also only represent a minority of Northern Ireland voters concentrated mainly in Antrim, the polls show most Northern Ireland voters want to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as the Boris Deal does
if the tories win the election they can make Kate Hoey head of the new Infrastructure and Sweeties Oversight Board responsible for handing out dumper trucks of taxpayer cash in Norn Iron on a constituency basis - Or if they don't want to play ball give the job to someone nominated by Mary Lou McDonald and invite Simon Coveney to sit on the management board.
MarqueeMark said"Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that."
You mean by a seperate Bill for the purpose? This would be amendable for one thing and for another I think Labour could block it if they can keep remainer alliance cross party support intact. Let the Tories stew in their own juices.
Government could try a VONC in itself, but this (in addition to the embarrassment) would open the door to a possible GNU led by Corbyn and loss of control over election timing, and they won`t get the 2/3 majority for the other FTPA provision (already tried and failed twice).
The SNP want an election per their amendment, their votes pass it and the govt will tell them 'no amendments to pass or we pull it'
@MikeSmithson said "One thing that struck me were the expressions of surprise from Brexit supporting politicians and the media about the DUP being ready to compromise the effort to leave the EU. Their lack of understanding of Irish politics over two centuries was extraordinary."
Are you seriously contending that professional politicians who are in close proximity to the DUP (HoC every week) did not grasp the basic tenet of Unionism and especially the intolerant variety supported by the DUP?
That is incredible. And it says a lot about the Tory hierarchy, none of it good.
The British establishment has never understood Irish politics, has never tried to understand Irish politics and has never wanted to understand Irish politics.
It’s the reason why 26 counties of Ireland left the Union and the remaining six will soon follow.
I do not think you understand Irish politics either....
MarqueeMark said"Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that."
You mean by a seperate Bill for the purpose? This would be amendable for one thing and for another I think Labour could block it if they can keep remainer alliance cross party support intact. Let the Tories stew in their own juices.
Government could try a VONC in itself, but this (in addition to the embarrassment) would open the door to a possible GNU led by Corbyn and loss of control over election timing, and they won`t get the 2/3 majority for the other FTPA provision (already tried and failed twice).
I don't think the amendable issue is an issue now; the original problem was about the date of an election and as we can't have it before 1st November now I don't think the Government will mind it being amended to (say) December. My understanding is that the SNP have said they will vote for a GE and so that should give the Government the votes they need.
Whether the Govt wins its Program motion tonight and keeps the WAB on course for Oct 31 may well depend on intense negotiations ongoing now between the Govt and Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Rory Stewart, I understand (1).
Which would be a valid argument were the Government to be following that manifesto but it isn't - and why should an MP continue to stand for a party if both the leadership changes and the plans of the new leadership differ from the manifesto.
In my previous comment I suggested that the best thing for Boris and the Tory party to do would be to take the Chiltern Hundreds and call byelections.
Given how far Boris and the new Party leadership has deviated from the manifesto their were elected upon it seems you agree they should seek re-election.
Re your last sentence I agree all mps should seek re-election in a GE
That isn't what my last sentence says - perhaps you should read it again.
GIN1138 said "We'll then go off and running into a general election IMO."
Again this assertion is made and again I ask where this mythical GE is coming from? By which mechanism?
Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that.
Yep. SNP made clear yesterday they want an election. That changes the dynamics of this completely, IMO.
I fully expect the EU to come back and state an extension has been granted till 31st January - please please please please either pass the bill, revoke Art 50 or have a referendum or election.
Hammond, Gauke and Stewart don't speak for all 21 Tory rebels any more - at least half of whom have already signed up to the full bill and its timetable. But they could still be the margin of victory/defeat in a very tight vote tonight (3).
Here is my take on this crisp and sunny autumnal morning. Apologies for the gloomy tone. It's because I'm feeling gloomy.
This is nearly over now. Boris Johnson has succeeded. We will be leaving the EU under his Deal and under him. The bad guys have won. The less enlightened side of our national character has prevailed. But I am no remoaner. The outcome is a perfectly logical consequence of the 2016 referendum. That inglorious exercise in direct democracy mandated us to leave (in orderly fashion) and the Deal achieves that. I never bought the special pleading on either side either for a ‘purist’ crash out or for another vote. Where we end up on the ‘hard’ vs ‘soft’ spectrum depends on the Future Relationship, which remains to be negotiated, and those talks (Brexit the process) will not start until the act of leaving (Brexit the event) has taken place. Brexit must happen in order for Brexit to commence. Fair enough.
What is NOT decided, however, is the next election. It is going to take place early in 2020 with us having left the EU, rather than with that existential question still unanswered. Who knows how it will pan out. Not me. What I do know is that the prospect of post-Brexit Britain in the hands of a pathological liar and opportunist at the head of a majority Tory government in hock to the reactionary right is unappetizing in the extreme. Therefore all that can be done to reduce the chances of this happening must be done. In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must.
Which would be a valid argument were the Government to be following that manifesto but it isn't - and why should an MP continue to stand for a party if both the leadership changes and the plans of the new leadership differ from the manifesto.
In my previous comment I suggested that the best thing for Boris and the Tory party to do would be to take the Chiltern Hundreds and call byelections.
Given how far Boris and the new Party leadership has deviated from the manifesto their were elected upon it seems you agree they should seek re-election.
Re your last sentence I agree all mps should seek re-election in a GE
That isn't what my last sentence says - perhaps you should read it again.
GIN1138 said "We'll then go off and running into a general election IMO."
Again this assertion is made and again I ask where this mythical GE is coming from? By which mechanism?
Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that.
Yep. SNP made clear yesterday they want an election. That changes the dynamics of this completely, IMO.
I fully expect the EU to come back and state an extension has been granted till 31st January - please please please please either pass the bill, revoke Art 50 or have a referendum or election.
The problem is that's what they said last time.....
@Southamobserver The Tories might in time decide to go WTO. Should we avoid an election forever so they can't get a majority ?
Not forever but if the Tory minority is bonkers while there's a parliamentary non-bonkers majority then it would make sense to form a non-bonkers government until the end of the term...
Were it not for Corbyn being Labour leader I suspect that would have already occurred.
Whether the Govt wins its Program motion tonight and keeps the WAB on course for Oct 31 may well depend on intense negotiations ongoing now between the Govt and Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Rory Stewart, I understand (1).
No. It depends how many read it and understand the utter shambles the WAB represents. The more who do so, the less likely this cobbled together exercise book of a Bill has of getting anywhere.
Pulpstar said "I fully expect the EU to come back and state an extension has been granted till 31st January - please please please please either pass the bill, revoke Art 50 or have a referendum or election."
let`s take these in order: Pass the Bill: 20% chance Revoke: 0% chance (unfortunately) Referendum: 10% chance GE: 10% chance
Make goverment limp on like a wounded animal caught in a bear trap: 60%
I do not buy the No Deal scenario next July/December. Having resolved the Irish border question, it is now unequivoically the case that GB will be massively more harmed by a crash-out than anyone else. There is literally no leverage in keeping it on the table. It can only do GB harm as it maintains uncertainty and signals to all businesses with significant interests in the single market that they are best off preparing to leave. I cannot allow myself to believe that even the former Conservative and Unionist party would be that stupid. Am I being hopelessly naive?
Yes and no. You’re naive to think that large numbers of people won’t think No Deal is a source of leverage and demand that we threaten it, but probably not to think that the government would never go through with it.
Strip away the ornamentation, and that's what happened with the WA. Boris is paying the money, the UK is applying EU rules in NI, and the checks are between NI and GB. Yes, there is a way for NI to exit these arrangements, but not one that will be used in reality.
Any deal done to apply from the end of 2020, or even 2022, will probably be largely on the EU's terms, because the EU can do the maths of who needs who more in the short term. And Boris may well get away with that.
If the voters in NI want to exit those arrangements then they can do so.
However if the voters in NI don't want to exit those arrangements then they can stay with them.
Whether the Govt wins its Program motion tonight and keeps the WAB on course for Oct 31 may well depend on intense negotiations ongoing now between the Govt and Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Rory Stewart, I understand (1).
No. It depends how many read it and understand the utter shambles the WAB represents. The more who do so, the less likely this cobbled together exercise book of a Bill has of getting anywhere.
Why else did Boris try and ram it through unseen?
Because he's a bully who can't cope with arguments? Or dissension?
If it looks like Con + SNP are going to force an election through a one line bill Labour will have to agree to an election via the more "traditional" FTPA route as they won't want to be seen being dragged kicking and screaming to a general election by Con and SNP.
GIN1138 said "We'll then go off and running into a general election IMO."
Again this assertion is made and again I ask where this mythical GE is coming from? By which mechanism?
Simple majority to set aside the provisions of the FTPA for that election? Labour couldn't block that.
Yep. SNP made clear yesterday they want an election. That changes the dynamics of this completely, IMO.
I fully expect the EU to come back and state an extension has been granted till 31st January - please please please please either pass the bill, revoke Art 50 or have a referendum or election.
The problem is that's what they said last time.....
We've inched forward from last time - the bill is clearly closer to a Commons Majority than May's deal ever was. Crucially the Tories have a leader that can sell a mediocre product now. A GE is also closer.
Here is my take on this crisp and sunny autumnal morning. Apologies for the gloomy tone. It's because I'm feeling gloomy.
This is nearly over now. Boris Johnson has succeeded. We will be leaving the EU under his Deal and under him. The bad guys have won. The less enlightened side of our national character has prevailed. But I am no remoaner. The outcome is a perfectly logical consequence of the 2016 referendum. That inglorious exercise in direct democracy mandated us to leave (in orderly fashion) and the Deal achieves that. I never bought the special pleading on either side either for a ‘purist’ crash out or for another vote. Where we end up on the ‘hard’ vs ‘soft’ spectrum depends on the Future Relationship, which remains to be negotiated, and those talks (Brexit the process) will not start until the act of leaving (Brexit the event) has taken place. Brexit must happen in order for Brexit to commence. Fair enough.
What is NOT decided, however, is the next election. It is going to take place early in 2020 with us having left the EU, rather than with that existential question still unanswered. Who knows how it will pan out. Not me. What I do know is that the prospect of post-Brexit Britain in the hands of a pathological liar and opportunist at the head of a majority Tory government in hock to the reactionary right is unappetizing in the extreme. Therefore all that can be done to reduce the chances of this happening must be done. In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must.
If the deal gets pulled and the government request an extension for a GE what are the opposition going to do?
There isn't a deal to be scrutinized, there aren't the votes for R2 and there certainly isn't the support for revoke.
Labour can't just sit there terrified of facing the electorate - it would destroy them.
If the deal gets pulled you can probably put together a majority for TMay's WA + softer PD + referendum. But only if the deal gets pulled, and Corbyn would have to let it happen under some other Prime Minister.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Your party? I thought you had resigned? Or have you followed Boris's example of leadership by pretending to resign and then saying "Oh no I haven't!"
I resigned all right. I could show you my letter but as is the case with the one nation conservatives backing the deal last night, and the party coming together, I will rejoin
Quite. Boris is really setting out to own every problem.
I think folks may be missing the point. Boris does not care about the time table in itself. He cares about being seen either to leave by 31 October or be clearly blocked by others despite his best endeavours. His big aim is to stay PM. If he could find a way of doing that while remaining he would. He has already gone a long way towards reuniting Ireland in his efforts.
Which would be a valid argument were the Government to be following that manifesto but it isn't - and why should an MP continue to stand for a party if both the leadership changes and the plans of the new leadership differ from the manifesto.
In my previous comment I suggested that the best thing for Boris and the Tory party to do would be to take the Chiltern Hundreds and call byelections.
Given how far Boris and the new Party leadership has deviated from the manifesto their were elected upon it seems you agree they should seek re-election.
Re your last sentence I agree all mps should seek re-election in a GE
That isn't what my last sentence says - perhaps you should read it again.
Not really interested anymore.
We are not going to agree so time to move on
Sorry for destroying your simplistic world view but lets make it clear for those who don't want to hunt through multiple comments.
You believe that MPs who disagree with their manifesto should call a by-election but that's its perfectly fine for a party to be elected and then do a complete u-turn on it's manifesto commitments.
'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.
If you're going to cast racist aspersions then how about rather than naming Midlands and Northern towns and cities then going vague you name names. There's dozens of leave voters here, if "every leaver" supports turfing out people who legally live here you shouldn't have any difficulty naming one here with that view.
Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'
Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.
That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.
Here is my take on this crisp and sunny autumnal morning. Apologies for the gloomy tone. It's because I'm feeling gloomy.
This is nearly over now. Boris Johnson has succeeded. We will be leaving the EU under his Deal and under him. The bad guys have won. The less enlightened side of our national character has prevailed. But I am no remoaner. The outcome is a perfectly logical consequence of the 2016 referendum. That inglorious exercise in direct democracy mandated us to leave (in orderly fashion) and the Deal achieves that. I never bought the special pleading on either side either for a ‘purist’ crash out or for another vote. Where we end up on the ‘hard’ vs ‘soft’ spectrum depends on the Future Relationship, which remains to be negotiated, and those talks (Brexit the process) will not start until the act of leaving (Brexit the event) has taken place. Brexit must happen in order for Brexit to commence. Fair enough.
What is NOT decided, however, is the next election. It is going to take place early in 2020 with us having left the EU, rather than with that existential question still unanswered. Who knows how it will pan out. Not me. What I do know is that the prospect of post-Brexit Britain in the hands of a pathological liar and opportunist at the head of a majority Tory government in hock to the reactionary right is unappetizing in the extreme. Therefore all that can be done to reduce the chances of this happening must be done. In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must.
First off, look or get outside. A beautiful morning as you say. Indeed a perfect one - it's what makes the UK so special, that and mushy peas, but I digress.
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Your party? I thought you had resigned? Or have you followed Boris's example of leadership by pretending to resign and then saying "Oh no I haven't!"
I resigned all right. I could show you my letter but as is the case with the one nation conservatives backing the deal last night, and the party coming together, I will rejoin
kinabalu said: " In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must."
I have a hunch that the 31/10 deadline is of little consequence to Boris`s perception in the country now. I don`t think he`ll be blamed for the Brexit delays. The public have at last twigged that the shenanegans are chiefly on the Labour Party side.
I have a few family members who voted to leave and none of them blame Boris for sending the extension letter. They know he was made to and under protest and in a desultory fashion. They all blame remainer MPs - especially Labour Party MPs.
I`ve been playing around with Electoral Calculus election predicter (really useful tool). LibDem seats market may hold opportunities I think.
'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.
If you're going to cast racist aspersions then how about rather than naming Midlands and Northern towns and cities then going vague you name names. There's dozens of leave voters here, if "every leaver" supports turfing out people who legally live here you shouldn't have any difficulty naming one here with that view.
Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'
Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.
That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.
Edit - I need to learn how block quotes work...
And that's incredibly common and sadly becoming far more common.
I bet a fortune on the day of the referendum when a colleague (at the time) was working in Leyland and told me everyone on the ward where she was working was voting - and when asked told her about the new Aldi where people had hoped to get jobs only to discover a team of Eastern Europeans were working there.
I do not buy the No Deal scenario next July/December. Having resolved the Irish border question, it is now unequivoically the case that GB will be massively more harmed by a crash-out than anyone else. There is literally no leverage in keeping it on the table. It can only do GB harm as it maintains uncertainty and signals to all businesses with significant interests in the single market that they are best off preparing to leave. I cannot allow myself to believe that even the former Conservative and Unionist party would be that stupid. Am I being hopelessly naive?
The "No Deal in 2020" meme is setting in. This is a great way for deal opponents to scare potential supporters in Labour, and to turn fatigued remainer public opinion against it. Couple that with removal of Level Playing field requirements and Labour should find enough momentum on this. As others have said, the longer the process drags on, the easier it is to pull at every loose thread on the deal until it unwinds entirely. As it stands it looks like Boris does have enough to get it through eventually, but as things drag on, could easily begin to unravel entirely.
Seems like one of the easiest amendments to pass would be something saying the transition period should be immediately extended to 2021/2022. That could get a lot of cross party support. This parliament does love asking for more time after all
Focus all of the attention on this
Then magnanimous government amendment (effective a government Benn act)
The the opponents need to scramble for something else
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Because the leader is a stain on humanity.
You have gone down in my estimation.
"a stain on humanity"
Because yes, Boris is up their with Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao. Loss of perspective, much?
Perspective would suggest that stain on humanity covers much more than Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao - I'd probably lump in the prick who constantly lets his dog shit on the entrance to my path.
Your pal Trump certainly qualifies. Britain Trump hasn't had such a run at the title yet, but give him time.
True big g is losing it, " this is the deal that stops no deal". Surely as he watches sky news all day, he understands the position after the transition period.
Yes I do and it is a risk.
However, that is for a new HOC to deal with and the anger more delay will create on top of the already feverish attitudes is going to make mps lives very difficult and labour mps in leave seats even more so
Why should we have a new HoC - we elected this one post the referendum as our representatives to decide how best to leave - and that is what they are doing.
The fact that Parliament is as divided as the general population is surely a feature of this Parliament rather than a weakness.
Or do you believe MPs should be delegates for their loudest (and angriest) constituents.
By general consent this HOC is not fit for purpose and needs to be disbanded for the sake of democracy. There are far too many mps who should have had by elections but who carrry on without a democratic mandate from their constituents
I can understand why many are scared of an election but the SNP are most certainly not and the Lib Dems should be very content to face the electorate
I therefore cannot see labour being able to withstand the tidal wave for an election much longer
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
The mps who have defected were elected on their manifesto and not someone elses.
They lose democratic legitimacy with their electorate and I hope in the next Parliament the mps will pass an act to see any mp who changes party has to submit to a by election within 28 days
That is not how the British system works; see the last 200 years.
Fine, do electoral reform first by electing a party that pledges to do so. But to claim out of hand that this parliament has no legitimacy is not true constitutionally, democratically or practically.
I am arguing that the referendum result must be honoured, that this Deal does so, and that another vote is not justified and in any case is for the birds -
If this is a 'remoaner' in your book, I dread (!) to think what that book is.
If the deal gets pulled and the government request an extension for a GE what are the opposition going to do?
There isn't a deal to be scrutinized, there aren't the votes for R2 and there certainly isn't the support for revoke.
Labour can't just sit there terrified of facing the electorate - it would destroy them.
If the deal gets pulled you can probably put together a majority for TMay's WA + softer PD + referendum. But only if the deal gets pulled, and Corbyn would have to let it happen under some other Prime Minister.
Where is that majority going to come from?
May's WA is dead and buried. The Tories will never go back to that now that Boris's Better Deal exists. The SNP and LDs will never accept any WA. Labour wouldn't push that WA either.
I'm not seeing more than a handful of votes for May's WA if it came back now.
'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.
If you're going to cast racist aspersions then how about rather than naming Midlands and Northern towns and cities then going vague you name names. There's dozens of leave voters here, if "every leaver" supports turfing out people who legally live here you shouldn't have any difficulty naming one here with that view.
Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'
Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.
That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.
I do not buy the No Deal scenario next July/December. Having resolved the Irish border question, it is now unequivoically the case that GB will be massively more harmed by a crash-out than anyone else. There is literally no leverage in keeping it on the table. It can only do GB harm as it maintains uncertainty and signals to all businesses with significant interests in the single market that they are best off preparing to leave. I cannot allow myself to believe that even the former Conservative and Unionist party would be that stupid. Am I being hopelessly naive?
As ever. Yes.
Two quick points
1) FTA agreements take years to agree and require a lot of regions in various EU countries to explicitly agree to them. So the idea that we can get a deal agreed and through the EU in 2020 is one for the birds.
2) But if we seek an extension we need to negotiate paying into the EU budget yet won't have a say in the budget so it's going to cost a fortune.
Here is my take on this crisp and sunny autumnal morning. Apologies for the gloomy tone.
This is nearly over now. Boris Johnson has succeeded. We will be leaving the EU under his Deal and under him. The bad guys have won. The less enlightened side of our national character has prevailed. But I am no remoaner. The outcome is a perfectly logical consequence of the 2016 referendum. That inglorious exercise in direct democracy mandated us to leave (in orderly fashion) and the Deal achieves that. I never bought the special pleading on either side either for a ‘purist’ crash out or for another vote. Where we end up on the ‘hard’ vs ‘soft’ spectrum depends on the Future Relationship, which remains to be negotiated, and those talks (Brexit the process) will not start until the act of leaving (Brexit the event) has taken place. Brexit must happen in order for Brexit to commence. Fair enough.
What is NOT decided, however, is the next election. It is going to take place early in 2020 with us having left the EU, rather than with that existential question still unanswered. Who knows how it will pan out. Not me. What I do know is that the prospect of post-Brexit Britain in the hands of a pathological liar and opportunist at the head of a majority Tory government in hock to the reactionary right is unappetizing in the extreme. Therefore all that can be done to reduce the chances of this happening must be done. In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must.
First off, look or get outside. A beautiful morning as you say. Indeed a perfect one - it's what makes the UK so special, that and mushy peas, but I digress.
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
First off, look or get outside. A beautiful morning as you say. Indeed a perfect one - it's what makes the UK so special, that and mushy peas, but I digress.
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
My ideal outcome from this point
We Leave with Boris's deal. Labour see sense and dump Corbyn A GE at which one side or the other actually wins a majority. I would be hard pressed to choose which way to vote at that one depending on who was the Labour leader. We have someone sensible as PM who negotiates a reasonable FTA based on practicality rather than ideology.
My own personal unicorn of course is that that deal is EFTA/EEA membership but I realise that is probably a unicorn which poops bricks of gold .
But I do agree about this wonderful autumn morning.
I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.
The concept of the NHS drives xenophobia. Discuss.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Your party? I thought you had resigned? Or have you followed Boris's example of leadership by pretending to resign and then saying "Oh no I haven't!"
I resigned all right. I could show you my letter but as is the case with the one nation conservatives backing the deal last night, and the party coming together, I will rejoin
First off, look or get outside. A beautiful morning as you say. Indeed a perfect one - it's what makes the UK so special, that and mushy peas, but I digress.
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
My ideal outcome from this point
We Leave with Boris's deal. Labour see sense and dump Corbyn A GE at which one side or the other actually wins a majority. I would be hard pressed to choose which way to vote at that one depending on who was the Labour leader. We have someone sensible as PM who negotiates a reasonable FTA based on practicality rather than ideology.
My own personal unicorn of course is that that deal is EFTA/EEA membership but I realise that is probably a unicorn which poops bricks of gold .
But I do agree about this wonderful autumn morning.
My concern at the moment is the timescale for a FTA deal and worse the impact of next achieving that impossible timescale as we will need to continue paying into an EU budget that now has a massive UK sized hole in it without any say in said budget.
True big g is losing it, " this is the deal that stops no deal". Surely as he watches sky news all day, he understands the position after the transition period.
Yes I do and it is a risk.
However, that is for a new HOC to deal with and the anger more delay will create on top of the already feverish attitudes is going to make mps lives very difficult and labour mps in leave seats even more so
Why should we have a new HoC - we elected this one post the referendum as our representatives to decide how best to leave - and that is what they are doing.
The fact that Parliament is as divided as the general population is surely a feature of this Parliament rather than a weakness.
Or do you believe MPs should be delegates for their loudest (and angriest) constituents.
By general consent this HOC is not fit for purpose and needs to be disbanded for the sake of democracy. There are far too many mps who should have had by elections but who carrry on without a democratic mandate from their constituents
I can understand why many are scared of an election but the SNP are most certainly not and the Lib Dems should be very content to face the electorate
I therefore cannot see labour being able to withstand the tidal wave for an election much longer
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
The mps who have defected were elected on their manifesto and not someone elses.
They lose democratic legitimacy with their electorate and I hope in the next Parliament the mps will pass an act to see any mp who changes party has to submit to a by election within 28 days
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Because the leader is a stain on humanity.
You have gone down in my estimation.
"a stain on humanity"
Because yes, Boris is up their with Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao. Loss of perspective, much?
Perspective would suggest that stain on humanity covers much more than Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao - I'd probably lump in the prick who constantly lets his dog shit on the entrance to my path.
Your pal Trump certainly qualifies. Britain Trump hasn't had such a run at the title yet, but give him time.
My pal Trump? Point to one post where I have ever said I supported him.
I've said before I couldn't vote for Hillary either - but even you couldn't be dumb enough to count that as my endorsement of the Pussy-grabber in Chief.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Your party? I thought you had resigned? Or have you followed Boris's example of leadership by pretending to resign and then saying "Oh no I haven't!"
I resigned all right. I could show you my letter but as is the case with the one nation conservatives backing the deal last night, and the party coming together, I will rejoin
eek said: "and when asked told her about the new Aldi where people had hoped to get jobs only to discover a team of Eastern Europeans were working there."
I went to a debate a while ago. John Mann MP was on the panel. He told of a example of a business in his constituency needing 100 new employee for an expansion. They sent a delegation to Poland and staffed their new depot entirely with Polish immigrants. The posts were not even advertised in his constituency.
Mann expalaned that this is why many working class people voted to leave the EU. Against free movement rules, not racist.
Some leavers are no doubt racist - but I think it unfair and incorrect to level this against the majority of leavers. Mann`s example is one that we all should be concerned about.
First off, look or get outside. A beautiful morning as you say. Indeed a perfect one - it's what makes the UK so special, that and mushy peas, but I digress.
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
My ideal outcome from this point
We Leave with Boris's deal. Labour see sense and dump Corbyn A GE at which one side or the other actually wins a majority. I would be hard pressed to choose which way to vote at that one depending on who was the Labour leader. We have someone sensible as PM who negotiates a reasonable FTA based on practicality rather than ideology.
My own personal unicorn of course is that that deal is EFTA/EEA membership but I realise that is probably a unicorn which poops bricks of gold .
But I do agree about this wonderful autumn morning.
Of course if they get rid of Corbyn the whole dynamic changes. But I don't see a route to that.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Because the leader is a stain on humanity.
You have gone down in my estimation.
"a stain on humanity"
Because yes, Boris is up their with Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao. Loss of perspective, much?
Perspective would suggest that stain on humanity covers much more than Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao - I'd probably lump in the prick who constantly lets his dog shit on the entrance to my path.
Your pal Trump certainly qualifies. Britain Trump hasn't had such a run at the title yet, but give him time.
My pal Trump? Point to one post where I have ever said I supported him.
I've said before I couldn't vote for Hillary either - but even you couldn't be dumb enough to count that as my endorsement of the Pussy-grabber in Chief.
There's no difference between Boris and Trump. Both racist sex-pests, both Bannonite nationalists. Both shitting on the constitutions of their countries.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Because the leader is a stain on humanity.
You have gone down in my estimation.
"a stain on humanity"
Because yes, Boris is up their with Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao. Loss of perspective, much?
Perspective would suggest that stain on humanity covers much more than Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao - I'd probably lump in the prick who constantly lets his dog shit on the entrance to my path.
Your pal Trump certainly qualifies. Britain Trump hasn't had such a run at the title yet, but give him time.
My pal Trump? Point to one post where I have ever said I supported him.
I've said before I couldn't vote for Hillary either - but even you couldn't be dumb enough to count that as my endorsement of the Pussy-grabber in Chief.
You've drunk the Boris-aid, BJ is up close and personal with Trump's perineum, and your version of Brexit promotes the whole of the UK to that level of intimacy.
True big g is losing it, " this is the deal that stops no deal". Surely as he watches sky news all day, he understands the position after the transition period.
Yes I do and it is a risk.
Howts.
By general consent this HOC is not fit for purpose and needs to be disbanded for the sake of democracy. There are far too many mps who should have had by elections but who carrry on without a democratic mandate from their constituents
I can understand why many are scared of an election but the SNP are most certainly not and the Lib Dems should be very content to face the electorate
I therefore cannot see labour being able to withstand the tidal wave for an election much longer
Um why should they hold by-elections. We vote for a representative to represent us - or do you believe we vote for delegates based on the colour of their rosette.
Just because a person changes the colour of the rosette they wear that doesn't change the person you voted for at the election for they are the elected representative for that Parliament.
Perhaps the party should have picked a more loyal candidate but that's an issue for the party not the constituency.
Being blunt, if you believe there should be by-elections when people leave a party you seem to believe MPs are merely delegates of their party leadership - and that isn't the case.
And given how much the views of your party leadership have moved to the right over the past 6 months I would repeat a suggestion I made back in September.
If Boris is so desperate for an election he could instruct what's left of the Tory party to take the Chiltern Hundreds and hold byelections.
The principle that we vote for a person not a party is true. But you and I both know that that decision is based on very scant information about the candidate, and that which party they take the whip from is a huge part of that picture.
If anything so fundamental about the MP's politics changes, there's a clear moral obligation to stand for by-election to ensure they're still the choice of their constituents. I'd agree this shouldn't be enshrined in law, but we should absolutely hold it against MPs who don't do so.
Comments
Any deal done to apply from the end of 2020, or even 2022, will probably be largely on the EU's terms, because the EU can do the maths of who needs who more in the short term. And Boris may well get away with that.
Whilst I wouldn't argue with the thrust of your post from a technical standpoint the implications for the electoral chances of those politicians hiding behind your argument are grave.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1186588601938829313
There has to be a good chance the amendments mean the ERG vote against either the bill or the program motion...
Sorting out the new budget is going to be expensive especially when we don't have any say in the budget talks, there is a gap that needs to be filled and some countries want new sweeties.
You mean by a seperate Bill for the purpose? This would be amendable for one thing and for another I think Labour could block it if they can keep remainer alliance cross party support intact. Let the Tories stew in their own juices.
Government could try a VONC in itself, but this (in addition to the embarrassment) would open the door to a possible GNU led by Corbyn and loss of control over election timing, and they won`t get the 2/3 majority for the other FTPA provision (already tried and failed twice).
It’s the reason why 26 counties of Ireland left the Union and the remaining six will soon follow.
Maybe they should have thought of that before they fired MPs and alienated allies....
You have gone down in my estimation.
My understanding is that the SNP have said they will vote for a GE and so that should give the Government the votes they need.
This is nearly over now. Boris Johnson has succeeded. We will be leaving the EU under his Deal and under him. The bad guys have won. The less enlightened side of our national character has prevailed. But I am no remoaner. The outcome is a perfectly logical consequence of the 2016 referendum. That inglorious exercise in direct democracy mandated us to leave (in orderly fashion) and the Deal achieves that. I never bought the special pleading on either side either for a ‘purist’ crash out or for another vote. Where we end up on the ‘hard’ vs ‘soft’ spectrum depends on the Future Relationship, which remains to be negotiated, and those talks (Brexit the process) will not start until the act of leaving (Brexit the event) has taken place. Brexit must happen in order for Brexit to commence. Fair enough.
What is NOT decided, however, is the next election. It is going to take place early in 2020 with us having left the EU, rather than with that existential question still unanswered. Who knows how it will pan out. Not me. What I do know is that the prospect of post-Brexit Britain in the hands of a pathological liar and opportunist at the head of a majority Tory government in hock to the reactionary right is unappetizing in the extreme. Therefore all that can be done to reduce the chances of this happening must be done. In the short term this means limiting the boost that Johnson will get from delivering his Deal. Which in turn means not allowing him the double victory of both passing it AND meeting his iconic “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct. Passing it, yes. But by 31 Oct, no. This starts today by voting down the accelerated timetable. It's a must.
We are not going to agree so time to move on
Because yes, Boris is up their with Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler and Mao. Loss of perspective, much?
Why else did Boris try and ram it through unseen?
let`s take these in order:
Pass the Bill: 20% chance
Revoke: 0% chance (unfortunately)
Referendum: 10% chance
GE: 10% chance
Make goverment limp on like a wounded animal caught in a bear trap: 60%
However if the voters in NI don't want to exit those arrangements then they can stay with them.
That is their choice.
On this forum you cannot please all the people all the time
A GE is also closer.
It effectively means any MP who votes for no deal can be named and shamed .
three paragraphs says you are, fella.
If a minority government continues then via demands like the Benn Act people like Hammond could force that anyway, so may as well give it to them.
If a majority government is elected then that majority will be able to control such votes by its own whip.
Either way may as well accept reality.
Bloody hell - red bag to a bull!!
You believe that MPs who disagree with their manifesto should call a by-election but that's its perfectly fine for a party to be elected and then do a complete u-turn on it's manifesto commitments.
'Bullshit. You can suspect all the bullshit you want, that does not represent leavers.
If you're going to cast racist aspersions then how about rather than naming Midlands and Northern towns and cities then going vague you name names. There's dozens of leave voters here, if "every leaver" supports turfing out people who legally live here you shouldn't have any difficulty naming one here with that view.
Or you can have some decency to admit it was a vile nasty aspersion that has no grounding in reality.'
Hey guys. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I live in Yvette Cooper's constituency. There are many people in this neck of the woods who will be disconcerted when there are still foreign-born people here after Brexit. I was speaking to my window cleaner the other week - in his 50s, never, ever, voted until the referendum, recently joined the Brexit Party. Amongst a welter of eyebrow raising comments was his assertion that there should be no more funding for the NHS until all foreigners have left the UK post-Brexit.
That doesn't represent all leavers, I accept that, and certainly not on this rarefied forum. But there are plenty of those people out there.
Edit - I need to learn how block quotes work...
Secondly, it looks like we will indeed leave with Boris' deal but take heart. Utter, utter tosser as he may be, trade negotiations, not being sexy, mean that sensible people are likely to take over and I'm pretty sure the deal we end up with will look for all the world like staying in the EU, with us signing up to anything and everything the EU suggests or requires. Dominic Raab will of course wave the Tonga Trade Deal paper along the way as evidence of our sovereignty, but we will remain very closely aligned with the EU.
Once the deed has been done, then I would rather a Conservative administration headed by a soft right metropolitan liberal such as Johnson negotiates the Future Trading Relationship than a party lead by a Marxist (or was it Marxist-Leninist) anti semite and hard Brexiter. Which are the options as it appears to me. And I'm sure the country also. So bring on your election and let the people decide.
In their minds, they might as well put off the inevitable.
I have a hunch that the 31/10 deadline is of little consequence to Boris`s perception in the country now. I don`t think he`ll be blamed for the Brexit delays. The public have at last twigged that the shenanegans are chiefly on the Labour Party side.
I have a few family members who voted to leave and none of them blame Boris for sending the extension letter. They know he was made to and under protest and in a desultory fashion. They all blame remainer MPs - especially Labour Party MPs.
I`ve been playing around with Electoral Calculus election predicter (really useful tool). LibDem seats market may hold opportunities I think.
I bet a fortune on the day of the referendum when a colleague (at the time) was working in Leyland and told me everyone on the ward where she was working was voting - and when asked told her about the new Aldi where people had hoped to get jobs only to discover a team of Eastern Europeans were working there.
CON: 37% (=)
LAB: 22% (=)
LDM: 19% (+1)
BXP: 11% (=)
GRN: 7% (+2)
Via @YouGov, 20-21 Oct,
Changes w/ 14-15 Oct.
Then magnanimous government amendment (effective a government Benn act)
The the opponents need to scramble for something else
Your pal Trump certainly qualifies. Britain Trump hasn't had such a run at the title yet, but give him time.
If this is a 'remoaner' in your book, I dread (!) to think what that book is.
May's WA is dead and buried. The Tories will never go back to that now that Boris's Better Deal exists. The SNP and LDs will never accept any WA. Labour wouldn't push that WA either.
I'm not seeing more than a handful of votes for May's WA if it came back now.
I know - I`ve been all over this for months now and haven`t got a woody once.
1) FTA agreements take years to agree and require a lot of regions in various EU countries to explicitly agree to them. So the idea that we can get a deal agreed and through the EU in 2020 is one for the birds.
2) But if we seek an extension we need to negotiate paying into the EU budget yet won't have a say in the budget so it's going to cost a fortune.
We Leave with Boris's deal.
Labour see sense and dump Corbyn
A GE at which one side or the other actually wins a majority. I would be hard pressed to choose which way to vote at that one depending on who was the Labour leader.
We have someone sensible as PM who negotiates a reasonable FTA based on practicality rather than ideology.
My own personal unicorn of course is that that deal is EFTA/EEA membership but I realise that is probably a unicorn which poops bricks of gold .
But I do agree about this wonderful autumn morning.
Edit: of course he would!
'He is a patron of the pro EU European Movement UK'
I've said before I couldn't vote for Hillary either - but even you couldn't be dumb enough to count that as my endorsement of the Pussy-grabber in Chief.
Con + SNP would be enough for a one line bill and SNP said yesterday they're up for it (was little reported but a VERY significant development)
I went to a debate a while ago. John Mann MP was on the panel. He told of a example of a business in his constituency needing 100 new employee for an expansion. They sent a delegation to Poland and staffed their new depot entirely with Polish immigrants. The posts were not even advertised in his constituency.
Mann expalaned that this is why many working class people voted to leave the EU. Against free movement rules, not racist.
Some leavers are no doubt racist - but I think it unfair and incorrect to level this against the majority of leavers. Mann`s example is one that we all should be concerned about.
Avert your eyes all you like but you own it.
It is far less common than it used to be but always struck me as rather odd.