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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49977827
What did Mogg mean by this (via BBC) ?
Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested it could be possible for the government to use European law to achieve no-deal.
"Theresa May got an extension not through UK law but through EU law and, until the 1972 European Communities Act is repealed, EU law is superior law in the UK," he said on BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour....
- reports loyalist paramilitaries are “plotting action” if Northern Ireland’s place within the UK is threatened by any Brexit deal.
Lord Empey accused the DUP of having already “opened the floodgates by agreeing and advocating a regulatory border in the Irish Sea”.
He added: “This was the green light that Dublin and Brussels were waiting for.
“Having realised their monumental blunder the DUP are now trying to run away.
“Knowing the political jam that Boris Johnson is in, Dublin and Brussels applied pressure and Boris Johnson, with the blessing of the DUP, gave way.
“Nigel Dodds must take responsibility for opening this can of worms. He and his colleagues have been out-flanked, but it is the ordinary business people and the rest of us who will be asked to pay the price.”
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/appeal-for-calm-over-loyalist-action-plan-in-event-of-irish-sea-border-1-9104936/
Sadiq Khan (Lab) 1/2
Rory Stewart (Ind) 7/2
Siobhan Benita (LD) 10/1
Shaun Bailey (Con) 20/1
Sian Berry (Grn) 50/1
(Shadsy)
If Westminster repeals the 1972 European Communities Act I think this is a winner. As always I'm open to correction.
And yet now you get the likes of Grieve pretend that they couldn't possibly be expected to absorb all the information in the new proposal in one day. And there were even rumblings from some in Labour that they'd seek to block Parliament sitting on the Saturday at all.
If true, what a dishonest bunch of scoundrels.
Talking of war-gaming, when Labour decided not to agree to a pre-summit election, or to VONC the government after the Supreme Court judgement, what was their plan if the government managed to secure and pass a pre-election Brexit deal?
If there is a 2019 Brexit (be it 31 Oct or after a brief technical extension), what's the trigger point for an election?
However they can now wait and see:
1) What if anything he comes back with
2) How Farage responds
3) How the parliamentary ex-Cons respond
Hopefully either (2) or (3) will be hostile. If it's (2) then they split the brexit vote so they can go for the election, if it's (3) they might want to suck it up and let $GRANDEE lead a GNU.
The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.
We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.
Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?
And does a bus pass count; ours at any rate has a picture on it.
Proof the system works.
If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
Not an achievement in my book.
I expressed concern about MPs mental health when I switched on sky news the day after the Supreme Court, to see them red faced, screaming and in some cases almost on the verge of tears. A concern raised over the last year by MPs from various parties and charities.
That you still now think I meant this in a derogatory way, even when I have explained otherwise, says a lot more about you than it does me. “Vile” was what I think you called me. As a published supporter of this site, you should ask yourself if this is really the way to help this excellent website thrive and grow.
You see that referendum he wants where he will be "neutral"? This is what it will be like - him addressing the cult demanding a general election (so that they can depose of Blairite traitors like John McDonnell) whilst the country burns.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.
They say never meet your heroes in real life. Well here we are I guess. I’ll still read your headers from time to time because they’re usually interesting and well informed. In fact they are the primary reason I kept coming back to this site for the past 12 years. But it’s clearly pointless engaging with you further.
Also the Commission has rejected the Finnish PM comments yesterday that there is no time and generally hopes are rising for a deal
Could all be just talk but more positives voices coming out of Brussels this morning
”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.
But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.
For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...
Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support
What should worry them is where these votes seem to be being lost. They look like a party increasingly driven back on the Valleys. In the most recent actual election we had - Brecon and Radnor - Ystradgynlais, which is in the western valleys, deserted Labour for the Liberal Democrats. Something very dramatic seems to be changing
They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections
MPs that support a deal would not go on to express no confidence in the government surely?
But in that sense it does make a VNC less likely as I suspect Parliament would just vote for an election.
When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour in Wales?
We need HYUFD, God bless him, who will know
If you mean ‘in an election,’ I think the answer is 1900. But I don’t have the figures for the popular vote so I’m having to guess a bit. In terms of seats it’s 1900.
Why would parliament vote for an election (2/3 needed) rather than via a VONC? A VONC would be much more embarrassing for the government (and VONC plus GNU would take away the ability to set a GE date from BJ).
But I return to my original point: if, say, Kinnock voted for a deal is he likely to follow this up with a vote expressing no confidence in the government? Seems unlikely to me. Therefore, if deal passes VONC wouldn`t succeed by this logic. Maybe I`m missing something?
We read: "Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli "
Plaid Cymru have expelled the prospective candidate for Cardiff West (Neil McEvoy), expelled activists in Llanelli over their objections to an imposed candidate, whilst the candidate for Blaenau Gwent who did so well at the last AM elections (Nigel Copner) has resigned from the party over internal disagreements.
I do not expect PC to gain any of those seats in the Assembly elections.
There have also been resignations and acrimony over the choice of candidate for Ynys Mon in Westminster, with another friend of the party leadership being parachuted into the seat.
I expect Plaid Cymru to go backwards at any election, not least because of their hugely ill-advised pact with the 'More Anglo than Nigel Farage' Welsh LibDems.
I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. Previously it would have been possible to play it's a people v Parliament election but without a unicorn Brexit plan a lot of people are going to dislike the actual plan and that's going to make Boris's job in the election even harder.
It would be bad enough for Boris with BXP saying you promised we would have left by now, it's going to be far worse when they can add oh and your plan isn't Brexity Unicorny enough.
The election is about England.
I can't see it working out for them really.
I think It's already in fairly widespread use in cases of non brain trauma (eg knife wounds).
If nothing else it would be good for a deal to be agreed so MPs can be put on the spot to see if they agree/want a referendum and to put the government on the spot about how the hell thry think we can leave without even a technical extension, should it pass.
"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."
and
"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Amazing what I learn here on PB.
I'm agnostic on voter ID in principle , but it has to be done right, and I'm unconvinced of the need for it.
I would put more effort into making sure everyone is registered to vote, and making it easier to vote.
It's also important to avoid making changes that look like they are designed to help one party or hurt another if at all possible
Neither said wants the blame for a deal failing to happen, and would be much happier blaming the intransigence of the other side.
If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.
That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.