eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.
And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.
Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.
Heads-up from memory its 55% to pocket 3's and 45% to AK suited. If the opposition AK is unsuited you've got a slightly better chance still. Either way a pocket pair heads-up is better than anything that's not a pair.
However what you really want if you've got a weak pocket, unless you limp in and hope to hit a set, is to get rid of limpers and be playing heads-up with one opponent. If you simply limp in and there ends up being say 5 players in the hand come the flop then you're pretty much screwed as the more players there are the more chance someone will hit an out.
JTs is 53% vs 33 46% so a pocket pair is not always best.
I didn't know that one. Interesting thank you that in that scenario JT is better than AK. I suppose that's because its openended for the straight while AK only has one side to go.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes: - socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern. - socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes. The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
Sounds like New Labour.
The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So Merkel agrees that the Uk will thrive after Brexit ?
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.
Feels a bit ambitious to me, but I hope they do it. We should invite them into the 6N tomorrow.
A pro league will need a few hundred good players, rather than the 20 or 30 we see here, but regular international fixtures are key to the development of any nations. I can see Japan joining the Southern nations in their regular tournament, playing against Aus, NZ, SA, Samoa and Argentina - but if not then hell yes, we should invite them to join the 6N.
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So Merkel agrees that the Uk will thrive after Brexit ?
Merkel agrees that there are alternative and competing economic models to the EU's and that Boris is going to adopt one of them on her door step. Thriving is of course in the eye of the beholder.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.
You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.
Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.
Feels a bit ambitious to me, but I hope they do it. We should invite them into the 6N tomorrow.
A pro league will need a few hundred good players, rather than the 20 or 30 we see here, but regular international fixtures are key to the development of any nations. I can see Japan joining the Southern nations in their regular tournament, playing against Aus, NZ, SA, Samoa and Argentina - but if not then hell yes, we should invite them to join the 6N.
It would be better to make it the 8N then. Georgia have probably done enough now to make the number up.
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.
Nope. Brown was all façade. He was every bit as vacuous as Dave and The Clown. No wonder the war criminal found the daftie intolerable.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
If we're clearly leaving, we're leaving. Those that feel v strongly won't be defecting pointlessly from Tories to Brexit Party for fear of smashing the process and letting in the saboteurs. I think the drift would be absolutely minimal. Just as likely to impact on Labour anyway which is what will count in the marginals.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.
You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.
I’m sure there will be a swing during that period but if there isn’t a GE in that short window then it will be irrelevant.
isam said: "The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest."
That`s an interesting view from a ex UKIP candidate. You think Farage`s influence will wane? Even if we leave with a deal (which Farage will of course deride as not really Brexit)?
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.
The proof will be in whether Hammond votes for MV4. It was easy enough from the saftey of No 11 to vote the other times, when he knew there was no chance of it passing. I think the accusation is that his actions from No 11 were precisely what made it impossible to pass until now.
His recent anti-free trade comments were a puzzle too.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
Why would you put "level playing field" restrictions in an agreement?
It just betrays Labour lack of confidence. They should win an election and then put in place whatever social rules they want. And if the Tories win the following election they can change them. It's the whole point of an elected parliament
On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
With a deal approved by Ireland (and so, the EU), Boris will certainly get away with a deal passed through the House by the 31st. There will be no need for a further extension, so screw you, Benn. There might still be some detail to be resolved by a committee of clever blokes, but on the basis that the effective date of all such provisions is to be31st Octber 2019, there is nothing more to prevent our departure.
Blocking that deal through the House will be a kamikaze mission for those who try.
(As I have pointed out previousy, Varadkar has put in place a Doomsday Budget to provide for No Deal. How good will he look when he can replace that with the SUnlit Uplands Budget instead? I mean, it's not like he has an election to plan for or anything..... And with a 31st October Effective Date, the incoming Commission can say Brexit is a Problem Belong Last Lot. Yay!)
Job done. Send home our MEP's. Bring on the general election.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
I think entertaining should be replaced with painfully slow and frustrating given the pace of their accepting reality so far.
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
He did a lot of shit behind the scenes which ended up with a WA that wasn't acceptable to Parliament.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.
You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.
An extension that ensures we have left with a deal isn't a problem for Boris in an election - he wins that election.
An extension is a problem for Boris if he is in an election.
An extension with a deal agreed with the EU but not by Parliament is a bigger issue for Boris. That allows the BXP to attack him on two issues (extension, not hard enough deal) with Labour hitting them on the other side (deal is too hard).
Boris has successfully manoeuvred himself into the worst possible position.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
I met the dog.
Quite a character
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.
...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes: - socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern. - socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes. The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.
The proof will be in whether Hammond votes for MV4. It was easy enough from the saftey of No 11 to vote the other times, when he knew there was no chance of it passing. I think the accusation is that his actions from No 11 were precisely what made it impossible to pass until now.
His recent anti-free trade comments were a puzzle too.
Indeed. Hammond never wanted Brexit and sabotaged it all the way from within No 11. Disgraceful.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.
The red lines were May's. They don't define Brexit.
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Mad drunken owner with gun...
The beer would have to be exceptional.
Much better - the owner of the Soggy Dollar Bar doesn't have a gun. At least as far as I know.
On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
Extension for what purpose? Unless the EU remove the backstop the DUP and ERG will still vote down any Deal and there are still not enough Labour MPs willing to vote for the current Withdrawal Agreement. Hence Boris is right to stick to Brexit with No Deal unless the EU remove the backstop and to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extension
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
Nearly choked on my Shreddies. Postal vote system is a disgrace - urgently needs reforming, and is being abused by Labour. LP activists have been seen visiting folks houses and collected numerous voting papers for themselves to post.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
I met the dog.
Quite a character
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.
Kai is a dude.
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to go
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunch
I met the dog.
Quite a character
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.
Kai is a dude.
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to go
The whole Top End of the Northern Territory is fantastic. Possibly the best bit of Australia. Wild yet rich, savage yet beautiful,... and with great Singapore Laksas in Darwin.
Arnhemland is peerlessly majestic. A top tier global travel experience. I am lucky that my modelling skills take me to such unlikely locations for UK menswear shoots.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.
I don't really got it is not.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.
CORRECTION oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
I believe the owner used to have a nch
I met the dog.
Quite a character
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.
Kai is a dude.
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to go
The whole Top End of the Northern Territory is fantastic. Possibly the best bit of Australia. Wild yet rich, savage yet beautiful,... and with great Singapore Laksas in Darwin.
Arnhemland is peerlessly majestic. A top tier global travel experience. I am lucky that my modelling skills take me to such unlikely locations for UK menswear shoots.
Yes will have to go sometime, my sister has been to northern Australia and very much enjoyed ut
On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
Extension for what purpose? Unless the EU remove the backstop the DUP and ERG will still vote down any Deal and there are still not enough Labour MPs willing to vote for the current Withdrawal Agreement. Hence Boris is right to stick to Brexit with No Deal unless the EU remove the backstop and to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extension
"to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extension". Or break the law, as would be more accurate.
It is really quite extraordinary watching Tory supporters advocate breaking the law if they can't get their own way. It shows that - au fond - they are really no different from those Marxists they keep complaining about.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
I don't see any prospect of Labour winning a majority, no. They could be the largest party, and it is more likely they could be the second biggest party but in a better position to form a minority govt than the Tories. We can all read the opinion polls.
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Mad drunken owner with gun...
The beer would have to be exceptional.
Much better - the owner of the Soggy Dollar Bar doesn't have a gun. At least as far as I know.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
I don't see any prospect of Labour winning a majority, no. They could be the largest party, and it is more likely they could be the second biggest party but in a better position to form a minority govt than the Tories. We can all read the opinion polls.
So the whole Labour Party strategy is based upon them losing and how best to contribute to British Politics from that position.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes: - socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern. - socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes. The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
Sounds like New Labour.
The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest.
New Labour was politically successful. But it made a number of major mistakes that LibDems have learned from and will avoid.
The Brexit Party may formally disappear but its DNA will remain in the New Tory Party.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
Nick are you too of the opinion that Labour ain't winning a GE any time soon?
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.
I think Ireland want this sorted out at this weeks summit.
All 27 have to be happy.
I must admit that I’m perplexed by the “scandis” comment. Sweden is ultra pro-deal, so he must be referring to Denmark or Finland (which isn’t actually “scandi”, but rather Nordic). I can’t imagine why either of them would be bothered, as long as Ireland is happy.
Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.
I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.
But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.
This poll explains why Stephen Kinnock and other labour mps will vote for a deal
Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.
The red lines were May's. They don't define Brexit.
The red lines were defined in the Brexit Referendum. They are a meaningful Brexit.
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
We don’t have crony capitalism now ?
Explain the VW diesel scandal.
Eh? What do you mean? As I understand it, the VW diesel scandal was about VW cheating emissions standards by installing software that detected test conditions and altered engine performance. Crony capitalism is where businesses make money from having connections within the government, where legislation is (partially) designed to benefit mates' companies or contracts are designed to be won by certain bidders rather than with public-good requirements in mind.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
How many trade negotiations has the government been involved in in the last 25 years, say? Or data protection measures? Obviously exclude the ones done through the EU.
Hmm, there's a lot of over-optimism, it seems to me. Remember the key point is that neither side wants to be blamed for the talks collapsing, but is it really plausible that there will be an agreed legal text by tonight, which the EU27 leaders will accept, and which differs sufficiently from the previous one to allow the ERGers and DUP to agree to it, and which gets past the EU parliament, and which also gets support from enough Labour MPs, ex-Tories and indies to pass in the UK parliament by Saturday?
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the best that can be hoped for is that the outline of a deal is looking possible, but more time will be needed to get it done.
What does Boris then do? He has done precisely zero to ease the naive expectations that he could deliver a deal by do-or-die date - in fact quite the opposite, he keeps doubling down on it. He'll be trapped by the Benn Act. He'll know that a No Deal crash out in a fortnight's time would be an utter disaster. He'll lose enormous credibility if we don't leave on that arbitrary date. He'll have Rees Mogg and the heavies breathing down his neck. He'll have Farage gleefully chucking rocks from the sidelines. He'll have the opposition parties trying to impale him on his stupid pledge.
All this suggests to me a messy extension which pleases no-one and which leaves Boris still striving, like Theresa May, to herd the cats in support of a deal no-one really likes.
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.
How effective would a postal strike be, these days? I cannot think of a single important thing which is regularly delivered, to me, by Royal Mail.
Probably the last crucial mail delivery I received was my new passport, but even that might have been couriered (I can't remember)
I'm not even sure I would notice a postal strike, except for the fact there would be less pointless junkmail littering the doorway
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
The Kinnock 19 have pleaded with the EU for there to be a deal to deliver Brexit. Do they still vote for it if the EU conclude a deal without such social and environmental protections? (Although I suspect Merkel is voicing one of the areas of concern that is taking up much time in the Tunnel of Love.....)
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.
Do you want to read that back to yourself.
You don't want the British people to be able to elect a government that has the freedom to implement policies you may not like.
This is a fundamentally undemocratic mindset, and encapsulates why remain lost perfectly.
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.
Just agree a new legally-agreed deal when you have a stonking OM.
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
There have been a number of cases on this which set out what has happened. While Labour has benefited in some cases, it has not just been Labour. The Tories too have benefited as have independents such as Lutfur Rahman.
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
How many trade negotiations has the government been involved in in the last 25 years, say? Or data protection measures? Obviously exclude the ones done through the EU.
According to the Beeboids, at least 15 covering 40 countries :-D. May be more now though - it has had another fortnight.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...
IE the entire frigging point of being an independent country.
Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!
For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.
They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections
Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.
Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour
When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour?
Last month.
If you mean ‘in an election,’ I think the answer is 1900. But I don’t have the figures for the popular vote so I’m having to guess a bit. In terms of seats it’s 1900.
The Tories outpolled Labour at the 2009 EU elections I believe.
I think Ireland want this sorted out at this weeks summit.
All 27 have to be happy.
I must admit that I’m perplexed by the “scandis” comment. Sweden is ultra pro-deal, so he must be referring to Denmark or Finland (which isn’t actually “scandi”, but rather Nordic). I can’t imagine why either of them would be bothered, as long as Ireland is happy.
Unless, as is very possible, the Nordics were rather hoping Britain might stay in the end. Therefore any deal, as it gets close, is unwanted.
Certainly the Hanseatic and protestant European nations were the most dismayed by the original Brexit vote.
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
Bit out of date. Postal voting procedures have been made tougher with voters having to write in their date of birth and produce a signature which is checked against the PV registration document.
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.
No, its democracy. If people vote to change laws or regulations then that is democracy in action. Why would you want to rule out democracy or domestic control?
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
The Kinnock 19 have pleaded with the EU for there to be a deal to deliver Brexit. Do they still vote for it if the EU conclude a deal without such social and environmental protections? (Although I suspect Merkel is voicing one of the areas of concern that is taking up much time in the Tunnel of Love.....)
Yeah, how to stop the UK competing when it is out.
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.
Unlikey to make much difference except in a few seats. Maybe help Plaid in Ynys Mon and LDs in Cardiff Central. But I dont see much love lost between Plaid and Lib Dems so dont assume there will be automatic switching of support....
Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.
Your analogy falls down in the first sentence. A Unionist Scottish government would not hold an independence referendum.
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.
How effective would a postal strike be, these days? I cannot think of a single important thing which is regularly delivered, to me, by Royal Mail.
Probably the last crucial mail delivery I received was my new passport, but even that might have been couriered (I can't remember)
I'm not even sure I would notice a postal strike, except for the fact there would be less pointless junkmail littering the doorway
Exactly. An all out national postal service strike, the nuclear option, just won't be that disruptive at a systemic level. Letter delivery is no longer critical national infrastructure. So when one side feels it has no choice to use it's nuclear option which isn't that nuclear anyway it's already lost.
isam said: "The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest."
That`s an interesting view from a ex UKIP candidate. You think Farage`s influence will wane? Even if we leave with a deal (which Farage will of course deride as not really Brexit)?
I think so, yeah. The only reason TBP did well, I hesitate to say "won" in front of so many hateful pedants, at the Euro elections is because we haven't left, not because people want No Deal.
I also think that Boris wont lose much support at all if we dont leave on the 31 Oct. His arbitrary deadline was the equivalent of putting in a bid in a negotiation. If it helps us leave by the end of the year, for instance, it will have done its job.
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reported
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
From the Guardian blog: --------------- Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”. --------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...
It is the social and environmental policies that might be adopted that worry people - the suggestions that these would be significantly weakened and that the weakest or minorities in our country would, in consequence, suffer. In short, not just that Britain might be more competitive than, say, Germany but that the fruits of that competitiveness will be taken only by the rich in this country at the expense of the poor, the workers etc.
The very type of post-Brexit policies that might be adopted in this scenario would exacerbate the very conditions and concerns which gave rise to Brexit in the first place - the sense that the system worked only for a few not the many. Quite why the ultra Brexiteers don't see that long-term this is disastrous for the Tories, I don't know. But it is.
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.
Unlikey to make much difference except in a few seats. Maybe help Plaid in Ynys Mon and LDs in Cardiff Central. But I dont see much love lost between Plaid and Lib Dems so dont assume there will be automatic switching of support....
The main branding is likely to be "unite fo remain"
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
Bit out of date. Postal voting procedures have been made tougher with voters having to write in their date of birth and produce a signature which is checked against the PV registration document.
The bottom line should be this. No ID, no vote, it really isn't difficult. I am all for greater engagement, but people who cannot be bothered to carry out a simple ID check that they do for pretty much everything else in life are demonstrating a level of apathy that causes them to de-enfranchise themselves and I have no sympathy. Postal votes should be kept to a minimum, only in extreme need. We have a situation now where large numbers of people are voting well before the campaign has ended.
ydoethur says: "But in that sense it does make a VNC less likely as I suspect Parliament would just vote for an election."
Why would parliament vote for an election (2/3 needed) rather than via a VONC? A VONC would be much more embarrassing for the government (and VONC plus GNU would take away the ability to set a GE date from BJ).
But I return to my original point: if, say, Kinnock voted for a deal is he likely to follow this up with a vote expressing no confidence in the government? Seems unlikely to me. Therefore, if deal passes VONC wouldn`t succeed by this logic. Maybe I`m missing something?
You do appear to be missing the fact that any Labour MP who failed to support his party on a VNOC would face automatic deselection. It would be the equivalent of a Premier League player deliberately kicking the ball into his own goal!
Comments
The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
Depends on what's in the barrel.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183997695066886145?s=20
That`s an interesting view from a ex UKIP candidate. You think Farage`s influence will wane? Even if we leave with a deal (which Farage will of course deride as not really Brexit)?
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.
His recent anti-free trade comments were a puzzle too.
It just betrays Labour lack of confidence. They should win an election and then put in place whatever social rules they want. And if the Tories win the following election they can change them. It's the whole point of an elected parliament
Blocking that deal through the House will be a kamikaze mission for those who try.
(As I have pointed out previousy, Varadkar has put in place a Doomsday Budget to provide for No Deal. How good will he look when he can replace that with the SUnlit Uplands Budget instead? I mean, it's not like he has an election to plan for or anything..... And with a 31st October Effective Date, the incoming Commission can say Brexit is a Problem Belong Last Lot. Yay!)
Job done. Send home our MEP's. Bring on the general election.
the seventh most generous nation on the planet, ahead of all other major EU nations.
https://twitter.com/Caf/status/1184009724494336000?s=20
An extension is a problem for Boris if he is in an election.
An extension with a deal agreed with the EU but not by Parliament is a bigger issue for Boris. That allows the BXP to attack him on two issues (extension, not hard enough deal) with Labour hitting them on the other side (deal is too hard).
Boris has successfully manoeuvred himself into the worst possible position.
Kai is a dude.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1184051011545161728
That ships sailed
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
Or is that out of date?
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
Nearly choked on my Shreddies. Postal vote system is a disgrace - urgently needs reforming, and is being abused by Labour. LP activists have been seen visiting folks houses and collected numerous voting papers for themselves to post.
@ElectionMapsUK
·
16h
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 33% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 17% (-2)
BXP: 12% (-3)
GRN: 3% (+1)
Via
@Panelbase
, 9-11 Oct.
Changes w/ 5-6 Sep.
Arnhemland is peerlessly majestic. A top tier global travel experience. I am lucky that my modelling skills take me to such unlikely locations for UK menswear shoots.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
It is really quite extraordinary watching Tory supporters advocate breaking the law if they can't get their own way. It shows that - au fond - they are really no different from those Marxists they keep complaining about.
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
This place is a little less effort, and well worth a visit:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/may/06/moorcock-inn-west-yorkshire-head-spinningly-good-restaurant-review
Their mutton was the best I've ever had.
That is pretty damning.
The Brexit Party may formally disappear but its DNA will remain in the New Tory Party.
I must admit that I’m perplexed by the “scandis” comment. Sweden is ultra pro-deal, so he must be referring to Denmark or Finland (which isn’t actually “scandi”, but rather Nordic). I can’t imagine why either of them would be bothered, as long as Ireland is happy.
Crony capitalism is where businesses make money from having connections within the government, where legislation is (partially) designed to benefit mates' companies or contracts are designed to be won by certain bidders rather than with public-good requirements in mind.
I don't see the connection.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the best that can be hoped for is that the outline of a deal is looking possible, but more time will be needed to get it done.
What does Boris then do? He has done precisely zero to ease the naive expectations that he could deliver a deal by do-or-die date - in fact quite the opposite, he keeps doubling down on it. He'll be trapped by the Benn Act. He'll know that a No Deal crash out in a fortnight's time would be an utter disaster. He'll lose enormous credibility if we don't leave on that arbitrary date. He'll have Rees Mogg and the heavies breathing down his neck. He'll have Farage gleefully chucking rocks from the sidelines. He'll have the opposition parties trying to impale him on his stupid pledge.
All this suggests to me a messy extension which pleases no-one and which leaves Boris still striving, like Theresa May, to herd the cats in support of a deal no-one really likes.
Probably the last crucial mail delivery I received was my new passport, but even that might have been couriered (I can't remember)
I'm not even sure I would notice a postal strike, except for the fact there would be less pointless junkmail littering the doorway
You don't want the British people to be able to elect a government that has the freedom to implement policies you may not like.
This is a fundamentally undemocratic mindset, and encapsulates why remain lost perfectly.
There have been a number of cases on this which set out what has happened. While Labour has benefited in some cases, it has not just been Labour. The Tories too have benefited as have independents such as Lutfur Rahman.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842
Certainly the Hanseatic and protestant European nations were the most dismayed by the original Brexit vote.
I also think that Boris wont lose much support at all if we dont leave on the 31 Oct. His arbitrary deadline was the equivalent of putting in a bid in a negotiation. If it helps us leave by the end of the year, for instance, it will have done its job.
The very type of post-Brexit policies that might be adopted in this scenario would exacerbate the very conditions and concerns which gave rise to Brexit in the first place - the sense that the system worked only for a few not the many. Quite why the ultra Brexiteers don't see that long-term this is disastrous for the Tories, I don't know. But it is.