Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Mr. Kamski, voter ID was discussed quite a bit yesterday. There'll be a range of options available (if it's anything like the pilot), including free ID from the local electoral body if an individual doesn't already have one of the various types of permissible ID.
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.
Brown was garbage, he was too up his own arse in thinking he was the messiah to ever be any good.
Big_G_NorthWales: I`m not sure that they will. Those smart enough to twig the Labour shenanigans probably still hanker for referendum/revoke and so will be relieved that we haven`t actually left the EU.
Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Whoever from Labour was being interviewed didn't say it out loud and the question really wasn't forced but it's clear that Labour sees little reason in meeting on Saturday.
Big_G_NorthWales: I`m not sure that they will. Those smart enough to twig the Labour shenanigans probably still hanker for referendum/revoke and so will be relieved that we haven`t actually left the EU.
Is anyone smart enough to understand labour's position on brexit ?
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.
Brown was garbage, he was too up his own arse in thinking he was the messiah to ever be any good.
Many people are promoted too soon; Brown was promoted far too late.
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.
”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.
He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.
For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...
In my experience best way to play a pair of 3's is to be aggressive and hope not to run into a higher pocket pair.
Once a flop comes your pair of 3s is useless unless another 3 turns it into a Set (in which case it's great but that's unlikely) but heads up pocket 3s are better than Ace and a King suited.
”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.
He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.
For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...
a pair of 3s - are you sure it's not pikachu and Master Bun the baker's son.
I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. Previously it would have been possible to play it's a people v Parliament election but without a unicorn Brexit plan a lot of people are going to dislike the actual plan and that's going to make Boris's job in the election even harder.
It would be bad enough for Boris with BXP saying you promised we would have left by now, it's going to be far worse when they can add oh and your plan isn't Brexity Unicorny enough.
Oh sure - the Boris plan is already being called a betrayal out there in Gammonland. There is no way that the people gaslit to believe that the only Brexit is No Deal are going to not vote for Farage who offers that and instead vote for a traitor in the form of the Quisling Johnson.
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Missed that. But it’s unacceptable that MPs should have to sit on a Saturday.
Corbyn’s got his marrows to harvest and Abbott’s got a long-standing hair appointment.
Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Whoever from Labour was being interviewed didn't say it out loud and the question really wasn't forced but it's clear that Labour sees little reason in meeting on Saturday.
Thank you for your reply.
I assumed it had disappeared as it is not featuring in the news
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.
It’s funny. Fifteen years ago you’d find some Conservative posters on here making similar criticisms of the Labour Government at the time.
"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."
and
"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"
I am pointing out explicitly that there are reasons specific to 3 of the target seats that suggest Plaid Cymru will not take them.
If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.
That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.
What you are missing is that the seat projections that you excoriate the writer for are drawn from uniform national swing and are obviously intended to be illustrative of the sort of changes rather than seat-by-seat predictions. In fact, what you are missing is that he is trying to do something totally different from what you are condemning him for doing.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.
And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.
Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.
Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
It's a smart play on their part.
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he is
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
Potentially very good news for sports medicine, where a lot of head injury trauma occurs. There’s an amazing amount of research going on into head injury at the moment, great to see a simple and inexpensive drug prove so effective.
Whilst it is good news I was disappointed to read the article and find it is only effective in the first three hours and is not a wonder reversal drug.
Yes, it’s aimed at trauma situations where there is bleeding on the brain, so good for sports doctors and A&E, but not for degenerative or accumulative conditions.
Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.
If there is a deal I don’t think most will care what Farage says, save the hardcore few.
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he is
It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.
Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.
I can imagine Farage ending up with about as many votes (and seats) as he got in 2015 with Ukip, which did not prevent a CON majority.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
It's a smart play on their part.
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
I would caution about a zero chance of the deal passing
Listening to the media this morning the chances of a deal are rising and with it your zero is a brave projection. It will depend on the DUP and ERG plus ex conservatives so I would wait to hear from them when and if a deal is arrived at
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he is
I don't think his viewpoint is different to mine. I suspect Labour sees Saturday meeting as pointless but they aren't revealing their plans yet.
The one thing that differs in our reporting is that it was Newsnight saying that Labour wishes to block Saturday - it wasn't the Labour interviewee who played a straight bat and wasn't asked directly - if given the opportunity would they vote against sitting on Saturday.
Personally I don't see the point of sitting on Saturday - the only reason for doing so is to vote through a deal before reading it and rescue Boris from having to ask for an extension.
Neither reason is a reason for sitting on Saturday in fact the former is a reason not to sit on Saturday.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Missed that. But it’s unacceptable that MPs should have to sit on a Saturday.
Corbyn’s got his marrows to harvest and Abbott’s got a long-standing hair appointment.
Well the MPs shouldn’t have passed a law containing Saturday’s date then, should they?
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.
"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."
and
"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"
I am pointing out explicitly that there are reasons specific to 3 of the target seats that suggest Plaid Cymru will not take them.
If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.
That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.
What you are missing is that the seat projections that you excoriate the writer for are drawn from uniform national swing and are obviously intended to be illustrative of the sort of changes rather than seat-by-seat predictions. In fact, what you are missing is that he is trying to do something totally different from what you are condemning him for doing.
I am not missing it at all. It is understood and completely obvious to anyone with a little mathematical training, and the tiniest, meanest grasp of statistics and data analysis. Though apparently it is "big news" in the world of pensions, as you keep on making the point with tedious regularity month after month.
I am pointing out that a party that is fucking up support in its target seats is not a party that is likely to be making any gains, either at Westminster or at the Senedd.
Plaid Cymru is now riven with serious internal dissent. Look how close both Copner & McEvoy came to talking the target seats last time round, and wonder why this has happened. Divided parties don't win elections, they don't take seats.
My guess is that the disillusioned PC vote is likely to help the Tories in any election because it is the more right-wing parts of Plaid Cymru support that are fed up. The Leannista wing (which would tend to favour Labour) is by and large in control of the party machinery.
So, the prediction of quite significant Tory gains in Wales rings true for a number of reasons.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
I agree, it is extension and election etc or No Deal.
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he is
It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.
Thanks Nick and yes, it is inconceivable that Corbyn would not attend
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he is
It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.
Thanks Nick and yes, it is inconceivable that Corbyn would not attend
There will be a good laugh to be had by the Tories in proposing they keep sitting all night until they have an agreement, to watch Labour vote it down because JC has a more important engagement to attend.
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.
That only works if there isn't an election in between your vote and Corbyn going and even then I'm not sure - it's not going to be the loss of whip that destroys your cushy number as an MP it's going to be your local party deselecting you.
Chances are there will be an election before Corbyn leaves anyway.
And once Boris has a deal an election is probably a better plan for Labour than a referendum. Boris will have lost the unicorn option and will have to then fight an election with:-
LD - we don't want to leave. Labour - we don't want to leave but if we leave Boris's deal is too hard core. BXP - Boris's deal isn't hard enough and he's incompetent having promised we would leave on October 31st.
Boris having a deal to sell is actually worse for Boris than offering to negotiate - the unicornness will have disappeared taking 2 parts of his Brexit vote with it.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
The trouble is that, for some of those who think for Boris, nixing the environmental and social stuff is the point of Brexit. Hence the shift in language from Canada plus plus plus to barebones Canada minus.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.
19 are committed to labour for a deal led by Stephen Kinnock and if you have seen todays Wales opinion poll you can see why
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
The viewpoint of the current membership of local associations may bear little relationship to their constituents. I'm sure RochdalePioneers can atest to that.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
It's a smart play on their part.
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.
You could be reading it badly wrong in the other direction. If a deal goes through, Brexit will still be a thing dominating politics because all the substantive decisions that will impact people's lives in Great Britain will have been deferred.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.
Personally you are giving this Government far more respect than I would.
Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.
That only works if there isn't an election in between your vote and Corbyn going and even then I'm not sure - it's not going to be the loss of whip that destroys your cushy number as an MP it's going to be your local party deselecting you.
Chances are there will be an election before Corbyn leaves anyway.
And once Boris has a deal an election is probably a better plan for Labour than a referendum. Boris will have lost the unicorn option and will have to then fight an election with:-
LD - we don't want to leave. Labour - we don't want to leave but if we leave Boris's deal is too hard core. BXP - Boris's deal isn't hard enough and he's incompetent having promised we would leave on October 31st.
Boris having a deal to sell is actually worse for Boris than offering to negotiate - the unicornness will have disappeared taking 2 parts of his Brexit vote with it.
This might well be the most illustrative guide to whether the thing gets passed or not (assuming DUP are on board).
There's several Blues in the Yes column that would now either vote Against or Abstain and at least 2 Blue Abstainers that would now vote Against. Question is how many.
Then we get to Nick's view on Labour.
Will be interesting to see if Boris makes it a "lose the whip" vote. If he does then he invites Corbyn to do the same, which might work out worse for him overall.
Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.
Good point. Off the top of my head I can think of one of those latter they've easily lured on board hook, line and sinker.
Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.
Labour have been finding excuses not to help the Tory leader of the day ever since June 23 2016. Yes Johnson is more antagonistic but don't kid me the response would be any different if May was still at the helm.
The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.
The news this morning, including from Barnier recommending to the EU foreign ministers, is that a deal can be agreed this week
The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.
Is Boris's big move to ditch the Benn Act getting a deal which looks suspiciously like No Deal to avert the delay letter? Given he still has to get an MV (or this Bill's equivalent) through the Commons, that feels like a big ask!
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.
A promise from Boris to have the whip reinstated is a big incentive to support the government in view of the impending GE
Not for those who aren't standing again.
I'm not sure that's true. For a number of the retiring ones, the Conservative Club is probably a big part of their social life. They might still prefer to get the whip back before gracefully retiring. Even for an ardent Ref #2 person like Greening, I'd be surprised if she did more than Abstain.
Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.
Labour have been finding excuses not to help the Tory leader of the day ever since June 23 2016. Yes Johnson is more antagonistic but don't kid me the response would be any different if May was still at the helm.
Of course it would. Whilst it’s the oppositions constitutional duty to oppose (and boy is there much to oppose) an attempt to reach consensus would have yielded better results than the Polarising hostility practiced by Boris. Boris has closed off political wriggle room for individual MPs.
The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
It's a smart play on their part.
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.
You could be reading it badly wrong in the other direction. If a deal goes through, Brexit will still be a thing dominating politics because all the substantive decisions that will impact people's lives in Great Britain will have been deferred.
I suspect that's right; I suspect, and this is casual conversations rather than targeted canvassing, or similar, that most people want the argument over 'whether or not' over. What follows after that may well provoke further debate. And it'll be relatively small things, and different for different people. For example, a cousin, who travels to Italy and France is very worried about her driving licence; she has been told that she may well need an Italian licence, obtained as a result of an Italian test. I've assured her that a son who lives in Thailand drives while there on an International licence, but she's still bothered.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Isn't it win-win though? If Brexit continues not to happen they have a permanent grievance. The poltics of grievance and betrayal is their route to power.
MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Johnson's "Deal" is mince. It makes a mess of Northern Ireland and offers nothing to the rest of the UK. The longer agreement is delayed the more likely people will realise it has no substance.
People who have Brexit fatigue shouldn't have voted for it. How do they think Remainers feel?
The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.
The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.
Are you seriously saying there is not a whole heap of substance to oppose here? The government’s policy is a basket case. They’re scrabbling around to find something, anything to save their own skin and meet an arbitrary self imposed deadline. Any opposition has to oppose this nonsense.
The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.
Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.
I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Labour will oppose any deal for perceived political advantage, that's very clear
The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.
Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.
Read the Wales opinion poll this morning to understand Kinnock's position
I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.
The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.
The opposition has a clear duty to oppose this ‘horrendous government’ and its basket case Brexit policy. It’s not as if it has to pick holes here. The flaws are obvious and gargantuan.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.
From what I've heard, emergency preparations are indeed being made, albeit discreetly.
eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.
Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?
By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Labour will oppose any deal for perceived political advantage, that's very clear
It's either cake or humble pie for Boris on Saturday says Peston. My guess is cake. Humble pie for the naysayers.
Comments
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
Once a flop comes your pair of 3s is useless unless another 3 turns it into a Set (in which case it's great but that's unlikely) but heads up pocket 3s are better than Ace and a King suited.
Corbyn’s got his marrows to harvest and Abbott’s got a long-standing hair appointment.
I assumed it had disappeared as it is not featuring in the news
How times change.
Whilst there has been talk of the UK becoming a Singapore off the coast of Europe, their smart move would be to limit it to Northern Ireland.....
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.
And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.
Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/50052735
What a great example to set to the rest of The Western Australian players.
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
Listening to the media this morning the chances of a deal are rising and with it your zero is a brave projection. It will depend on the DUP and ERG plus ex conservatives so I would wait to hear from them when and if a deal is arrived at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoU4aMwmfCE
The one thing that differs in our reporting is that it was Newsnight saying that Labour wishes to block Saturday - it wasn't the Labour interviewee who played a straight bat and wasn't asked directly - if given the opportunity would they vote against sitting on Saturday.
Personally I don't see the point of sitting on Saturday - the only reason for doing so is to vote through a deal before reading it and rescue Boris from having to ask for an extension.
Neither reason is a reason for sitting on Saturday in fact the former is a reason not to sit on Saturday.
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I don’t think dies/found dead is to do with age but with expectation (which obviously has a relationship with age)
Hence “25 year old terminal cancer sufferer dies” vs “75 year old advocate of ‘right to die’ found dead”
I am pointing out that a party that is fucking up support in its target seats is not a party that is likely to be making any gains, either at Westminster or at the Senedd.
Plaid Cymru is now riven with serious internal dissent. Look how close both Copner & McEvoy came to talking the target seats last time round, and wonder why this has happened. Divided parties don't win elections, they don't take seats.
My guess is that the disillusioned PC vote is likely to help the Tories in any election because it is the more right-wing parts of Plaid Cymru support that are fed up. The Leannista wing (which would tend to favour Labour) is by and large in control of the party machinery.
So, the prediction of quite significant Tory gains in Wales rings true for a number of reasons.
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .
How times change.
Chances are there will be an election before Corbyn leaves anyway.
And once Boris has a deal an election is probably a better plan for Labour than a referendum. Boris will have lost the unicorn option and will have to then fight an election with:-
LD - we don't want to leave.
Labour - we don't want to leave but if we leave Boris's deal is too hard core.
BXP - Boris's deal isn't hard enough and he's incompetent having promised we would leave on October 31st.
Boris having a deal to sell is actually worse for Boris than offering to negotiate - the unicornness will have disappeared taking 2 parts of his Brexit vote with it.
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.
This might well be the most illustrative guide to whether the thing gets passed or not (assuming DUP are on board).
There's several Blues in the Yes column that would now either vote Against or Abstain and at least 2 Blue Abstainers that would now vote Against. Question is how many.
Then we get to Nick's view on Labour.
Will be interesting to see if Boris makes it a "lose the whip" vote. If he does then he invites Corbyn to do the same, which might work out worse for him overall.
Who's best at counting?
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
And it'll be relatively small things, and different for different people. For example, a cousin, who travels to Italy and France is very worried about her driving licence; she has been told that she may well need an Italian licence, obtained as a result of an Italian test. I've assured her that a son who lives in Thailand drives while there on an International licence, but she's still bothered.
Edited for grammar.
People who have Brexit fatigue shouldn't have voted for it. How do they think Remainers feel?
Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.
I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.
The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.
Can you elaborate? What exactly are you hearing on the doorstep?
Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?
By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
Ticks a lot of class of 2019 lefty boxes that one.
https://order-order.com/2019/10/15/eco-terrorist-attacking-department-transport/
My guess is cake. Humble pie for the naysayers.