I've seen the results of the Scottish panelbase poll.
It's interesting, it was a simultaneous poll of both Scotland and England and Wales with a correcrly demographically weighted 1003 person subsample for Scotland. Thus making the full results excellent for plugging into an election calculator.
Also the Yes/No split was 412Yes/413No, so the Union is safe for now.
Baffled by the faux outrage over photo ID. Completely uncontroversial in Northern Ireland (where voter ID cards are also available for those without Passports, Driving Licences or Bus Passes).
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
Boris will just send 2 letters, the second rejecting extension, nominate a Brexiteer Commissioner from the UK and reduce defence cooperation with any nations backing extension.
He will negotiate again from No Deal, not willingly after further extension
And will end the up in contempt of court you really need to get a life than spending it with us sado’s that have nothing better to do.
Boris will just send 2 letters, the second rejecting extension, nominate a Brexiteer Commissioner from the UK and reduce defence cooperation with any nations backing extension.
He will negotiate again from No Deal, not willingly after further extension
That is just stupid. The EU can just offer the extension and it is then up to Boris to use it or otherwise. Why should they care his childish game playing? They will not let him off the hook he so daftly hung himself on.
Salvini: "The euro is irreversible - I say this once and for all, and then I hope that no one inside and outside my party will raise this issue again. The League is not thinking about Italy's exit from the euro or the European Union."
Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.
Rather extreme lengths to go to in your Brexit preparations....
Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.
Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn
I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.
But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?
I don’t think so she claimed to have left school at 15 and her background precludes it. I think it may be no more than wanting to protect her personal life and those loosely associated with it from unwarranted intrusion. Football going nasty I’m afraid
Seems improbable she both left school at 15 and took a degree at Manchester Met given the rest of her timeline. Or did she mean, left school and went to FE college?
Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
"Violent clashes over Catalan separatist leaders' prison terms Chaos at Barcelona airport as protesters react to sentencing over 2017 bid for independence"
Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.
Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn
I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.
But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?
I don’t think so she claimed to have left school at 15 and her background precludes it. I think it may be no more than wanting to protect her personal life and those loosely associated with it from unwarranted intrusion. Football going nasty I’m afraid
Seems improbable she left school at 15 and took a degree at Manchester Met given the rest of her timeline. Or did she mean, left school and went to FE college?
Only going on Wikipedia and her own bio so not sure of her route to Manchester met but it does state she left school at 15 and started work at mc Donald’s
Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time. Meanwhile lunch at an Italian restaurant streetside in New York sunshine makes Brexit seem a long way away. As it probably is.
Our dog travels all over Europe with us on a pet passport. Hadn't thought of travelling to US with a pet - out of interest did you fly or sail? Did it go well?
Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.
Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn
I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.
But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?
I don’t think so she claimed to have left school at 15 and her background precludes it. I think it may be no more than wanting to protect her personal life and those loosely associated with it from unwarranted intrusion. Football going nasty I’m afraid
Seems improbable she left school at 15 and took a degree at Manchester Met given the rest of her timeline. Or did she mean, left school and went to FE college?
Only going on Wikipedia and her own bio so not sure of her route to Manchester met but it does state she left school at 15
I am wondering who wrote that given some, umm, unfortunate incidents have been left off it.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
I don't Swinson would carry her party with her on that post election. Many would ignore her. Having propped up the Tories for 5 years in Coalition , the last thing the LDs would want would be to accused of being Tory stooges again.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time. Meanwhile lunch at an Italian restaurant streetside in New York sunshine makes Brexit seem a long way away. As it probably is.
Our dog travels all over Europe with us on a pet passport. Hadn't thought of travelling to US with a pet - out of interest did you fly or sail? Did it go well?
I wonder if dogs get sea or air sick? They cannot tell you if they feel rough! But i might be barking up the wrong tree!
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
I don't Swinson would carry her party with her on that post election. Many would ignore her. Having propped up the Tories for 5 years in Coalition , the last thing the LDs would want would be to accused of being Tory stooges again.
the LDs will merely offer a confidence and supply deal for a few toys - but only to a non Corbyn Labour party.
As both main parties are likely to lose seats it's likely they could both lose their leaders in the aftermath.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
I don't Swinson would carry her party with her on that post election. Many would ignore her. Having propped up the Tories for 5 years in Coalition , the last thing the LDs would want would be to accused of being Tory stooges again.
Given most LD gains after the next general election would likely come in Tory Remain seats due to voters who despise Corbyn as much as Brexit and would run back to the Tories if the LDs went anywhere near him, the LDs would of course not touch Corbyn with a bargepole
Baffled by the faux outrage over photo ID. Completely uncontroversial in Northern Ireland (where voter ID cards are also available for those without Passports, Driving Licences or Bus Passes).
Agree
2 things about it
1. It's not personation which is the problem, it's *successful* personation, of which there is by definition no evidence.
2. A dodgy vote effectively steals the entire democratic rights of one legitimate voter in the election where it is cast. That is a bad thing to do even if it makes no practical difference to anything and even if it doesn't happen very often. You can trivialise it, but then again you can admit that you yourself never vote because you cba and it makes no odds. In either case I am going to despise you.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Salvini: "The euro is irreversible - I say this once and for all, and then I hope that no one inside and outside my party will raise this issue again. The League is not thinking about Italy's exit from the euro or the European Union."
If you are referring to the football, then I think this FIFA protocol is working. The Captains and Managers are raising the concerns, the ref is listening and acting, the thugs in black hoodies have left, so hopefully we are making progress.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
I don't Swinson would carry her party with her on that post election. Many would ignore her. Having propped up the Tories for 5 years in Coalition , the last thing the LDs would want would be to accused of being Tory stooges again.
Given most LD gains after the next general election would likely come in Tory Remain seats due to voters who despise Corbyn as much as Brexit and would run back to the Tories if the LDs went anywhere near him, the LDs would of course not touch Corbyn with a bargepole
But they need Labour tactical votes in most of those seats. They could also reasonably argue that they would have significant leverage over him given the parliamentary arithmetic.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
I don't Swinson would carry her party with her on that post election. Many would ignore her. Having propped up the Tories for 5 years in Coalition , the last thing the LDs would want would be to accused of being Tory stooges again.
Given most LD gains after the next general election would likely come in Tory Remain seats due to voters who despise Corbyn as much as Brexit and would run back to the Tories if the LDs went anywhere near him, the LDs would of course not touch Corbyn with a bargepole
But they need Labour tactical votes in most of those seats. They could also reasonably argue that they would have significant leverage over him given the parliamentary arithmetic.
Which they would still get as long as they do not vote for Boris either bar the Corbynista diehards.
Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.
Sounds like you are reading about the case of the Yacht Mignonette and whether eating cabin boys is wrong ...
Why can it not? Does anyone believe, if they are in talks to find solutions, they could not manage it?
Unconvincing in the extreme. And if it's a case of Boris cocking about then theres no need to extend.
Because it requires a lot of detail and detail is:-
1) something Boris doesn't understand nor care about but the EU does 2) something that takes time..
Nope, not buying it. The relevant points of discussion have been boiled down, and they could all work 24/7 to work toward a deal (or discover that one is not possible) if they wanted to, they are not rewriting the entire damn thing, and if it were that complicated we'd have heard long before now that there was no hope of agreeing it in time.
They don't need to do a deal now - they don't have to abide by Boris's schedule - but I don't believe that it is not possible, it is a choice. Not an unreasonable choice, to be clear, I think the EU are not obliged to bust a gut to get it done, but a bland statement that there is not time is not persuasive, and pretending it is not even a choice undermines their decision by acting like it is not a decision.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
I don't share your assumption re-LDS . Also DUP likey to drop to 8 or 9.
Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.
Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.
It's a strange perversion of socialism in one country. He wants free trade in one country.
Why can it not? Does anyone believe, if they are in talks to find solutions, they could not manage it?
Unconvincing in the extreme. And if it's a case of Boris cocking about then theres no need to extend.
Because it requires a lot of detail and detail is:-
1) something Boris doesn't understand nor care about but the EU does 2) something that takes time..
Nope, not buying it. The relevant points of discussion have been boiled down, and they could all work 24/7 to work toward a deal (or discover that one is not possible) if they wanted to, they are not rewriting the entire damn thing, and if it were that complicated we'd have heard long before now that there was no hope of agreeing it in time.
They don't need to do a deal now - they don't have to abide by Boris's schedule - but I don't believe that it is not possible, it is a choice. Not an unreasonable choice, to be clear, I think the EU are not obliged to bust a gut to get it done, but a bland statement that there is not time is not persuasive, and pretending it is not even a choice undermines their decision by acting like it is not a decision.
We had all of this the first time around with May.
"Another EU source said that, with talks between the UK and the EU still ongoing, it was premature to definitively determine the contents of this week’s summit, and a deal, though difficult, was still possible"
There is a bizarre faith in pre-campaign polling on PB. @iSam put it best a few days ago: pre-campaign polls had:
Hillary as Potus Remain winning Tessa May getting a majority Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
Careful, though. It's not a binary situation where pre-campaign polls are either determinative or utter garbage.
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
I don't share your assumption re-LDS . Also DUP likey to drop to 8 or 9.
Even 8 or 9 DUP keeps Boris in No 10 if the LDs abstain rather than vote for Boris or Corbyn as they have said they will do
Why can it not? Does anyone believe, if they are in talks to find solutions, they could not manage it?
Unconvincing in the extreme. And if it's a case of Boris cocking about then theres no need to extend.
There is a huge difference between reaching an agreement and having international treaty text ready. The UK's new proposals were made very late, are highly complex and quite different from the existing WA. This weeks EUCO had to sign off treaty text not heads of agreement to avoid the Benn Act kicking in.
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.
Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.
It's a strange perversion of socialism in one country. He wants free trade in one country.
Baffled by the faux outrage over photo ID. Completely uncontroversial in Northern Ireland (where voter ID cards are also available for those without Passports, Driving Licences or Bus Passes).
Agree
2 things about it
1. It's not personation which is the problem, it's *successful* personation, of which there is by definition no evidence.
2. A dodgy vote effectively steals the entire democratic rights of one legitimate voter in the election where it is cast. That is a bad thing to do even if it makes no practical difference to anything and even if it doesn't happen very often. You can trivialise it, but then again you can admit that you yourself never vote because you cba and it makes no odds. In either case I am going to despise you.
Rubbish. If successful personification (in a form that would be prevented by these proposed photo ID measures) were widespread, then allegations of personification would be widespread as well. The lack of evidence for the latter is an indication of lack of the former.
Why can it not? Does anyone believe, if they are in talks to find solutions, they could not manage it?
Unconvincing in the extreme. And if it's a case of Boris cocking about then theres no need to extend.
I believe. International treaties of this sort typically take years to agree, not days. If they happen at all. If you want a quick deal, you concede everything to the other side. As the old sign on the desk says, "A lack of honesty on Johnson's part doesn't necessarily constitute an emergency for the EU". Why shouldn't they expect the UK to be serious?
Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.
Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.
It's a strange perversion of socialism in one country. He wants free trade in one country.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
I don't share your assumption re-LDS . Also DUP likey to drop to 8 or 9.
Even 8 or 9 DUP keeps Boris in No 10 if the LDs abstain rather than vote for Boris or Corbyn as they have said they will do
We saw in 2010 how quickly the LDs can adjust their positions when circumstances change. Post election , they will not wish to be seen to be proping up a Tory Government with which it fundamentally disagrees re- EU. Nor would they wish to be blamed for allowing DUP bigots to continue in a pivotal position. They could also expect some credit for helping to bring the chaos and uncertainty to an end.
Wonder if he will try and amend Benn to allow a technical extension or to defer letter until emergency EUCO
An emergency EUCO won’t be till the end of the month which is far too late to be able to put the legislation through , it also needs to be ratified by the EU Parliament.
If he hadn’t spent most of the last few months looking for photo ops around the country and trying to shut down Parliament then he could have done a deal in good time .
If there’s a genuine chance of a deal then he needs to ditch the stupid pledge .
UEFA need to be banning FAs from competing until they can clean their act up. Players should not have to be subjected to this.
Or make them play behind closed doors. The pre match sanction of reducing capacity by 5k seats achieved fuck all here!
That's not working either, though. Until there is a serious long lasting punishment which hits at a national level, the Bulgarian FA won't take serious action.
There is a bizarre faith in pre-campaign polling on PB. @iSam put it best a few days ago: pre-campaign polls had:
Hillary as Potus Remain winning Tessa May getting a majority Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
Careful, though. It's not a binary situation where pre-campaign polls are either determinative or utter garbage.
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
I guess it’s the certainty and over-analysis that sits badly. What’s the point of putting (for instance) tonight’s Panelbase through Baxter etc? You might as well make five numbers up.
Would be great to see the posts here if this were American fans behaving like the Bulgarians. Tenuous links a go go
“... and THIS is what leavers want to be associated with? As if Chlorinated chicken wasn’t bad enough!”
Not sure what your point is here, care to clarify? I actually think this transcends brexit.
Happy to.
If this were American fans being racist, I reckon there are Remain supporters on here who would use it to make a political point linking Leave, Boris etc, to Trump
UEFA need to be banning FAs from competing until they can clean their act up. Players should not have to be subjected to this.
Or make them play behind closed doors. The pre match sanction of reducing capacity by 5k seats achieved fuck all here!
That's not working either, though. Until there is a serious long lasting punishment which hits at a national level, the Bulgarian FA won't take serious action.
It would hurt if they had to play every game behind closed doors, but point taken. Expulsion should be considered.
There is a bizarre faith in pre-campaign polling on PB. @iSam put it best a few days ago: pre-campaign polls had:
Hillary as Potus Remain winning Tessa May getting a majority Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
Careful, though. It's not a binary situation where pre-campaign polls are either determinative or utter garbage.
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
I guess it’s the certainty and over-analysis that sits badly. What’s the point of putting (for instance) tonight’s Panelbase through Baxter etc? You might as well make five numbers up.
‘ You might as well make five numbers up.’
Yes. For the purposes of discussion why not just make numbers up? The points made and conclusions drawn would be no less valid
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
I don't share your assumption re-LDS . Also DUP likey to drop to 8 or 9.
Even 8 or 9 DUP keeps Boris in No 10 if the LDs abstain rather than vote for Boris or Corbyn as they have said they will do
We saw in 2010 how quickly the LDs can adjust their positions when circumstances change. Post election , they will not wish to be seen to be proping up a Tory Government with which it fundamentally disagrees re- EU. Nor would they wish to be blamed for allowing DUP bigots to continue in a pivotal position. They could also expect some credit for helping to bring the chaos and uncertainty to an end.
Hence the LDs will also refuse to make Boris PM either, keep voting against Brexit and keep saying they will consider backing a Labour leader for PM if Labour dump Corbyn for a centrist but only then
Salvini: "The euro is irreversible - I say this once and for all, and then I hope that no one inside and outside my party will raise this issue again. The League is not thinking about Italy's exit from the euro or the European Union."
I'm reading Varoufakis' Adults in the Room at the moment. It is remarkably insightful into the nafarious ways of the EU, and the total disaster that is the euro. The euro turns nations into hospitalised vegetables, with locked-in syndrome.
It is also rather well written (if a bit flowery) given that Varoufakis is a Greek but he penned this in English.
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
He only started looking bothered about a deal after the Benn Bill came into force . And it’s not the EUs fault if Johnson put his plans in so late . As for no deal , different polls show different things and that poll still shows a majority against no deal or preferring to stay in the EU .
Hypothetical: if Bunter could get his deal through on 15 November, would he extend?
Depends on how the EU dress this deal I think.
If it's this Deal only, No Deal or Revoke and EU grant extension only enough to allow this deal to be finalised - no more - then gives Boris cover (as it's a short technical extension) and also brings finality for the EU.
They don't want to be arsing about for the next 6 months or whatever.
Baffled by the faux outrage over photo ID. Completely uncontroversial in Northern Ireland (where voter ID cards are also available for those without Passports, Driving Licences or Bus Passes).
Agree
2 things about it
1. It's not personation which is the problem, it's *successful* personation, of which there is by definition no evidence.
2. A dodgy vote effectively steals the entire democratic rights of one legitimate voter in the election where it is cast. That is a bad thing to do even if it makes no practical difference to anything and even if it doesn't happen very often. You can trivialise it, but then again you can admit that you yourself never vote because you cba and it makes no odds. In either case I am going to despise you.
Rubbish. If successful personification (in a form that would be prevented by these proposed photo ID measures) were widespread, then allegations of personification would be widespread as well. The lack of evidence for the latter is an indication of lack of the former.
Personation, we don't criminalise literary tropes in these parts.
Why should what you say be true? Can you think of no other crimes which have turned out to be very widespread, but gone unsuspected for decades or longer?
Would be great to see the posts here if this were American fans behaving like the Bulgarians. Tenuous links a go go
“... and THIS is what leavers want to be associated with? As if Chlorinated chicken wasn’t bad enough!”
Not sure what your point is here, care to clarify? I actually think this transcends brexit.
Happy to.
If this were American fans being racist, I reckon there are Remain supporters on here who would use it to make a political point linking Leave, Boris etc, to Trump
The only problem I have with it all is that unfortunately many football grounds in the UK suFfer from the same problem, how you distinguish partisan loyalty to your team from genuine abuse i don't know but the UK is by no means clean on this issue.
Hypothetical: if Bunter could get his deal through on 15 November, would he extend?
Also hypothetical, but if he’s had to extend to get a deal, does it make it more likely he’ll get the votes? “We told you so, why were you being so silly and inflexible - we knew all along” is not a bad place for the Kinnock lot to be in.
Would be great to see the posts here if this were American fans behaving like the Bulgarians. Tenuous links a go go
“... and THIS is what leavers want to be associated with? As if Chlorinated chicken wasn’t bad enough!”
Not sure what your point is here, care to clarify? I actually think this transcends brexit.
Happy to.
If this were American fans being racist, I reckon there are Remain supporters on here who would use it to make a political point linking Leave, Boris etc, to Trump
There is a bizarre faith in pre-campaign polling on PB. @iSam put it best a few days ago: pre-campaign polls had:
Hillary as Potus Remain winning Tessa May getting a majority Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
Careful, though. It's not a binary situation where pre-campaign polls are either determinative or utter garbage.
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
I guess it’s the certainty and over-analysis that sits badly. What’s the point of putting (for instance) tonight’s Panelbase through Baxter etc? You might as well make five numbers up.
I'm not sure you're right that you might as well make numbers up. A poll (or at least an average of polls) today is a reasonable central estimate of the situation in a couple of months, but there has to be quite a large standard deviation.
There are aspects that annoy me too, though:
1. Picking a favourite poll and saying everything else is an outlier.
2. Taking a change from the last poll of say 2% and reading a lot into it - if all polls are up around 2% for party X, fine, but if it's just one then it's not a trend, it's probably noise.
3. As you say, Baxterising to death. Because there are clusters of seats with similar majorities, a small change in polling % can have a fairly big impact. But so what? Broadly, if you're a few % behind that's a worry and if you're a few ahead it's nice. But the difference between being 5% ahead and 7% ahead is pretty meaningless many weeks from an election.
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
A reasonable summing-up, although I disagree that the brinksmanship could have had much effect on the EU - the signs are the opposite, with so many of the concessions seeming to come from the UK side.
There was also in fact a fourth option
d) If he does plan to submit an extension, and wants to stay in power at all costs, the extension can be recast as both more clearly temporary, as there's already a deal promised, and b not his fault, but a by-product of the EU delaying , while he tried to "get Brexit done" . Maybe not be that likely, but it's the last possible option too, I think, and has something in common with your final para too, I think.
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
He only started looking bothered about a deal after the Benn Bill came into force . And it’s not the EUs fault if Johnson put his plans in so late . As for no deal , different polls show different things and that poll still shows a majority against no deal or preferring to stay in the EU .
No it does not. 41% no deal, 33% remain, 14% another solution to be negotiated
Also in the same poll the voters blame the EU more than the UK
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
As far as I know, Johnson-Cummings actually did think (1) the EU would blink and (2) it didn't matter if the EU didn't because they would win an election on a No Deal prospectus either just before or after 31st October.
Neither prediction is likely to play out as expected.
If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.
Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office
Johnson would not survive with 304 seats - or any total below 310. Nor would Theresa May have done so in June 2017.
He would unless Labour dumps Corbyn as Swinson has made clear she will never make Corbyn PM so would abstain rather than vote for either Corbyn or Boris as PM
Corbyn also loses seats with that result so would be on his way out as well..
No - were that poll to be proved accurate, I suspect Corbyn would end up heading a minority Government with circa 255 MPs plus 48 SNP plus 4 Plaid plus 1 Green plus at least 1 Alliance.
Wrong as the Tories plus DUP would be on 319 seats more than the 309 seats for Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green combined and the Alliance would likely join the LDs and abstain too
I don't share your assumption re-LDS . Also DUP likey to drop to 8 or 9.
Even 8 or 9 DUP keeps Boris in No 10 if the LDs abstain rather than vote for Boris or Corbyn as they have said they will do
We saw in 2010 how quickly the LDs can adjust their positions when circumstances change. Post election , they will not wish to be seen to be proping up a Tory Government with which it fundamentally disagrees re- EU. Nor would they wish to be blamed for allowing DUP bigots to continue in a pivotal position. They could also expect some credit for helping to bring the chaos and uncertainty to an end.
Hence the LDs will also refuse to make Boris PM either, keep voting against Brexit and keep saying they will consider backing a Labour leader for PM if Labour dump Corbyn for a centrist but only then
If the Tory leader in 2010 had been Davis rather than the more centrist Cameron the LDs would also not have voted for a Tory PM or joined a Tory led coalition government
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
He only started looking bothered about a deal after the Benn Bill came into force . And it’s not the EUs fault if Johnson put his plans in so late . As for no deal , different polls show different things and that poll still shows a majority against no deal or preferring to stay in the EU .
No it does not. 41% no deal, 33% remain, 14% another solution to be negotiated
Also in the same poll the voters blame the EU more than the UK
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
A reasonable summing-up, although I disagree that the brinksmanship could have had much effect on the EU - the signs are the opposite, with so many of the concessions seeming to come from the UK side.
There was also in fact a fourth option
d) If he does plan to submit an extension, and wants to stay in power at all costs, the extension can be recast as both more clearly temporary, as there's already a deal promised, and b not his fault, but a by-product of the EU delaying , while he tried to "get Brexit done" . Maybe not be that likely, but it's the last possible option too, I think.
There are three possible reasons as to why Johnson is moving so late :
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
a) - Merkel has expressed fear that the UK would be a serious competitor with the US and China if if was allowed to leave without constraints and is seeking to soften brexit in the EU's favour
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
He only started looking bothered about a deal after the Benn Bill came into force . And it’s not the EUs fault if Johnson put his plans in so late . As for no deal , different polls show different things and that poll still shows a majority against no deal or preferring to stay in the EU .
No it does not. 41% no deal, 33% remain, 14% another solution to be negotiated
Also in the same poll the voters blame the EU more than the UK
Who fecking cares who gets the blame? If no deal is disastrous, no deal is disastrous.
There is a bizarre faith in pre-campaign polling on PB. @iSam put it best a few days ago: pre-campaign polls had:
Hillary as Potus Remain winning Tessa May getting a majority Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
Careful, though. It's not a binary situation where pre-campaign polls are either determinative or utter garbage.
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
I guess it’s the certainty and over-analysis that sits badly. What’s the point of putting (for instance) tonight’s Panelbase through Baxter etc? You might as well make five numbers up.
1. Picking a favourite poll and saying everything else is an outlier.
2. Taking a change from the last poll of say 2% and reading a lot into it - if all polls are up around 2% for party X, fine, but if it's just one then it's not a trend, it's probably noise.
3. As you say, Baxterising to death. Because there are clusters of seats with similar majorities, a small change in polling % can have a fairly big impact. But so what? Broadly, if you're a few % behind that's a worry and if you're a few ahead it's nice. But the difference between being 5% ahead and 7% ahead is pretty meaningless many weeks from an election.
There was a poll earlier where the SNP went up by 1pt. There was an ‘only on PB moment’ when a extreme unionist poster publicly cheered this because their increase was so modest.
La La Land. He is sanctioning a NATO ally for doing what he invited them to do on Wednesday, and he is withdrawing American troops from a country where he says there are no American troops, and he is aiding the resurgence of a terror group that he simultaneously boasts about defeating, and he is sending American troops into the Mid East as he gloats about flying Mid East-based US troops home, and and and
Comments
It's interesting, it was a simultaneous poll of both Scotland and England and Wales with a correcrly demographically weighted 1003 person subsample for Scotland. Thus making the full results excellent for plugging into an election calculator.
Also the Yes/No split was 412Yes/413No, so the Union is safe for now.
Trudeau leads Scheer as preferred PM 28.7% to 27.8%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1WT1RA?__twitter_impression=true
Unconvincing in the extreme. And if it's a case of Boris cocking about then theres no need to extend.
1) something Boris doesn't understand nor care about but the EU does
2) something that takes time..
Hillary as Potus
Remain winning
Tessa May getting a majority
Cammo repeating a NOM/Coalition with the Liberals
As both main parties are likely to lose seats it's likely they could both lose their leaders in the aftermath.
2 things about it
1. It's not personation which is the problem, it's *successful* personation, of which there is by definition no evidence.
2. A dodgy vote effectively steals the entire democratic rights of one legitimate voter in the election where it is cast. That is a bad thing to do even if it makes no practical difference to anything and even if it doesn't happen very often. You can trivialise it, but then again you can admit that you yourself never vote because you cba and it makes no odds. In either case I am going to despise you.
https://www.politico.eu/article/matteo-salvini-eu-not-negotiating-brexit-in-good-faith/
We are more self sufficient today in food than we were in 1973
Their voting power remains the same regardless
“... and THIS is what leavers want to be associated with? As if Chlorinated chicken wasn’t bad enough!”
3) needs to be done properly
They don't need to do a deal now - they don't have to abide by Boris's schedule - but I don't believe that it is not possible, it is a choice. Not an unreasonable choice, to be clear, I think the EU are not obliged to bust a gut to get it done, but a bland statement that there is not time is not persuasive, and pretending it is not even a choice undermines their decision by acting like it is not a decision.
Don’t forget Cameron winning a majority in 2010
Wonder if he will try and amend Benn to allow a technical extension or to defer letter until emergency EUCO
"Another EU source said that, with talks between the UK and the EU still ongoing, it was premature to definitively determine the contents of this week’s summit, and a deal, though difficult, was still possible"
In reality, they are useful but have limitations. In the examples you give, Clinton DID win the popular vote, and May DID win the election (albeit short of a majority). Cameron got his majority, but it was hardly a working majority. Remain lost, but it was quite close. And pre-campaign polls in (for example) 1997, 2001, and 2005 pretty much reflected the final situation.
So pre-campaign polls are pretty useful but campaigns CAN change things (but often don't and could change things for the better or worse).
The danger is partly going too far the other way. For example, Corbynistas breezily claiming "well, the polls were bad in 2017, so don't worry about it". Well, the 2019/20 campaign MIGHT be the same again, but it might not. Indeed, it might be a poor campaign for Labour where they slide back and Swinson's LDs emerge increasingly as the dominant anti-Brexit choice, for example, or where Johnson's ebullient style contrasts poorly with Corbyn's more Eeyore-ish demeanour. In other words, Corbyn's awful numbers are a big worry for Labour (albeit perhaps don't jump off the bridge yet) and Johnson's poll leads are nice for the Tories (but not enough to justify some of the smugness we see here from certain posters).
Stay classy.
a) Brinkmanship - particulary to move MP's, rather than Europe, I think. Europe has always wanted a deal, and has always looked willing to slightly bend timetables were supposed to be "set in stone".
b) Artifice. He wants to move too late for a deal to be agreed, so that if he either concedes the extension, or steps down, the EU may be more realistically blamed in the public mind.
c) Chaos. He's impulsive and unpredictable, and possibly incompetent, and the structural relationship between him and Cummings doesn't work properly.
I always knew Redwood was a secret Deep Green.
Seriously, when can we expect this new 'deal'/'plan' to emerge? The Conference is on Thursday for pete's sake.
If he hadn’t spent most of the last few months looking for photo ops around the country and trying to shut down Parliament then he could have done a deal in good time .
If there’s a genuine chance of a deal then he needs to ditch the stupid pledge .
If this were American fans being racist, I reckon there are Remain supporters on here who would use it to make a political point linking Leave, Boris etc, to Trump
Yes. For the purposes of discussion why not just make numbers up? The points made and conclusions drawn would be no less valid
b) - In todays Sky YouGov poll the EU are blamed more and 41% v 33% support a no deal exit
c) - It has been said earlier that no 10 have already gamed this and have plans to thwart any need to request an extension but no one knows what they are
Tonights news demonstrates the effect of Benns bill as the EU try to go beyond the 19th October hoping to corner Boris but this is very volatile and this could play into Boris hands quite well as the Country is sick to death of the shenanigans and wants brexit done
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1183822494031065088?s=21
It is also rather well written (if a bit flowery) given that Varoufakis is a Greek but he penned this in English.
If it's this Deal only, No Deal or Revoke and EU grant extension only enough to allow this deal to be finalised - no more - then gives Boris cover (as it's a short technical extension) and also brings finality for the EU.
They don't want to be arsing about for the next 6 months or whatever.
Why should what you say be true? Can you think of no other crimes which have turned out to be very widespread, but gone unsuspected for decades or longer?
There are aspects that annoy me too, though:
1. Picking a favourite poll and saying everything else is an outlier.
2. Taking a change from the last poll of say 2% and reading a lot into it - if all polls are up around 2% for party X, fine, but if it's just one then it's not a trend, it's probably noise.
3. As you say, Baxterising to death. Because there are clusters of seats with similar majorities, a small change in polling % can have a fairly big impact. But so what? Broadly, if you're a few % behind that's a worry and if you're a few ahead it's nice. But the difference between being 5% ahead and 7% ahead is pretty meaningless many weeks from an election.
The man is even more of a blithering twit than even I feared.
There was also in fact a fourth option
d) If he does plan to submit an extension, and wants to stay in power at all costs, the extension can be recast as both more clearly temporary, as there's already a deal promised, and b not his fault, but a by-product of the EU delaying , while he tried to "get Brexit done" . Maybe not be that likely, but it's the last possible option too, I think, and has something in common with your final para too, I think.
Also in the same poll the voters blame the EU more than the UK
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1183833640507269120?s=21
Neither prediction is likely to play out as expected.
America the Clown.