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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/13/snp-sturgeon-to-request-fresh-scottish-independence-referendum-within-weeks
Fake video of Trump shooting media and opponents 'shown at president's resort'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/14/fake-video-of-trump-shooting-media-and-opponents-shown-at-presidents-resort
Depressing read.
Evidence based policy is needed more than ever in criminal justice, but 'Hangman' Patel shows her true ignorant reactionary colours.
What an awful Home Secretary we have indeed.
Then again, maybe they won't. Only trouble is, as is well known, struggling in a swamp only drags one further down. The way out is to stay still and call for help!
But who is likely to throw us a rope to grasp?
Bravo.
Can’t we just call a spade a spade and call it the Losers Revote?
So an early election is now off the table?
Or ten SNP generations.
Ultimately, it's not really a government of all the talents, more of a government of people who supported Boris's bid for leadership of the Conservative Party.
Their lack of introspection about this failure is the most enduring mystery of Brexit for me.
Mr. Meeks, if it goes to a second referendum I'd be astounded if Remain lost (versus a Deal option).
The question is: will MPs go for one?
Ironic that Corbyn's the greatest ally hardline Leavers have.
Raab is a very smart man. A close leftie friend who worked for him at justice described him as brilliant, but not a particularly nice boss.
Williamson to be fair is clearly a disaster and deserves to be in the same category as Patel (is he still demanding the police investigate himself I wonder!?).
Oddly this has not led to a consensus for Brexit, despite its mandate: if anything, the whole idea is losing support.
However, most of those pushing for a second referendum appear to be of the opinion that it should be between the option that was rejected by the people three years ago, and the option that was rejected three times by Parliament earlier this year.
The reason Remain needs to be on any fresh referendum is because it is by far the most popular single option in every poll on the subject. Excluding it would be a democratic atrocity.
I think Corbyn may actually turn out to be the man who stopped Brexit. A more competent and professional Labour leader wouldn't have been 20 pts down in the polls, and therefore wouldn't have tempted May into an earlier election.
My first question is what will Boris do or announce on the 5th / 6th that will completely overshadow the budget.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1183316240326184960
Pretty predictable. Unless you're working on Ferrari's strategy, it seems.
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1183608565162004480?s=20
The EU isn’t offering a referendum on the deal to its citizens- surely remainers want to align with the EU method of doing things.
What a wonderfully adaptable and many-faceted thing democracy is.
No shambles here.
Something which ought to rock the police establishment has passed almost unnoticed.
Have Queens Speech day.
LOCK THE DOORS!
While Mercedes' achievement of six consecutive double titles is also an amazing record, it doesn't quite have the same human interest as the two hour marathon finally being cracked after decades of trying, and a women's world (and British) record that has stood for sixteen years being obliterated only a day later.
If it is a confirmatory referendum then the result of a no vote should be leaving with No Deal.
In any case, the Labour leave vote is estimated around 3-3.5m (based on 2017 Labour vote). Many of those of course didn't vote Labour in 2015.
A hypothetical Labour leader would have needed to persuade 20-25% of those to change their mind and back Remain. Not impossible, but it seems a bit of a tall order, when you consider how engrained opinions on Brexit seem to be.
Plus, which is more interesting? I could drive a F1 car as fast as Hamilton (OK, except round the corners). I doubt I could do half a Kosgei or Kipchoge speed, even on the straight bits.
Today's Sky poll conducted by YouGov gives 46% blaming the EU if talks fail v 31% who believe the EU has been fair, 23% did not know
Support for no deal is 41% out weighing remaining at 33% while 14% hope negotiations will find another solution
32% trust Boris with Corbyn on 16% with 76% who do not trust him. Only 36% of labour 2017 voters trust Corbyn on Brexit with former leavers particularly sceptical
Only 14% trust mps and peers with 77% do not
So summing up, walking away with no deal has much wider support, if this poll is correct, confounding so many who want to remain
16% trusting Corbyn is horrendous for labour and he is very much their problem
The only question I have is how do 14% trust mps and peers- it should be zero
Indeed.
Though don't forget Trump's dodgy Turkish connection go back before his election.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-colluding-turkey-erdogan-kurds-syria.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds21U7coQzI
As of yesterday however Assad is now backing the Kurds
Be careful about associating yourself with the slogan “Britain First”
Brexit was certainly not a vote for that agenda (even though some of that ilk may have supported Brexit l)
On another issue, Channel 5 are supposed to be running a poll about which kind of deal/no deal people prefer.
Are these news agencies scared of asking the obvious question? Shall we Remain or stay? Or are the paymasters scared of the result?
Second, the budget on the entire justice system has been cut by 40%. That is why courts are shutting, people are waiting over a year for trials, judges are sitting idle etc. The recent spending statement only increased the current budget by 5%.
Remember this when the Tory fan boys start praising all the QS promises made today.
The Tories - in their current incarnation - are busy destroying everything that has been good about this country.
We forget that elite athletes are all completely superhuman specimens, they have lung capacity and lactate tolerance that 99.99% of us just don't have, plus the 'right' muscle mass, bone density, height and weight to be good at a particular event, things that are genetic and can't simply be trained out - not to belittle the massive advances in sports science and equipment technology in recent decades.
There's good physical reasons that a lot of long distance runners at the Olympics are of Central African origin, a lot of 100m runners are of West Indian origin, and a lot of high jumpers are of North European origin. Those people have simply developed to be 'better' than the rest of us at certain things.
Indeed Yougov a fortnight ago had 72% of voters outside London wanting harsher sentences for criminals compared to only 60% of Londoners. A majority of voters also backed the death penalty for terrorists, serial killers and police and child killers
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/articles-reports/2019/10/01/brits-want-harsher-punishments-criminals
Brexit is a f*cking disaster.
Should be revoked asap to stop this country descending further onto the scrapheap.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/05/almost-fifth-murders-england-wales-committed-ex-inmates-parole/
Do you really think that even Scots will support such a barrier to trade and free movement within the UK. Is my Scottish wife going to have to provide her passport at the border when she visits family in the North of Scotland
Leavers seem to think that they can ride roughshod over everyone without debate. You can see it on this thread, where the very idea that the public might get to change its mind is treated with horror.
Voters do not prefer no deal , 33% want to ditch Brexit and Remain which means staying with our current deal and 14% want more negotiations. So 47% against 41% .
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1183648943516868608
"To put Eliud Kipchoge's sub 2 hour marathon into perspective:
Only FIVE of the 51,363,611 parkruns completed have been faster than Eliud's pace."
Yes lost the Scottish independence referendum and so do need to convert voters to reverse their defeat
In any referendum the question would have to be deal - no deal - remain as confirmed by Dominic Grieve recently
It was about the only good thing that has happened in the war torn country.
The betrayal without warning of an ally who lead the fight against IS at the cost of many thousands of casualties (I believe US casualties during the time are in single figures) will damage worldwide trust in the US a very long time.