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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure mounts from Britain’s biggest car manufacturer

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019

    Cancelled
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Roger said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    If Johnson gets a deal , even you will have to give him some credit.
    As would I , as I thought no deal , was the plan.
    I doubt any Remain voter will give him any credit whatsoever. He is more responsible for getting us into this mess than anyone with the exception of Cameron. Slightly alleviating the catastrophy of his making after three and a half years deserves nothing .
    I understand your point . However we are where we are . No deal would be a catastrophe and destroy EU relations for years .

    I detest Brexit and think it’s a tragedy however a no deal is far worse .
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Has she made any effort to explain the SLab position on Brexit from which she has resiled, just for the benefit of us poor, confused punters?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A deal is good for those of us who've bet against a 2019 GE.

    Not sure. The Commons arthimatic is still the same in that no one has the numbers to govern.

    I could see a the deal passing HOC on 19th October followed by an election being agreed to on 21st October as Boris's Queen Speech is voted down.
    We always used to be told that getting on for two months of concentrated effort would be needed to get through the required legislation after the Commons approved a deal.
    I imagne the idea will be for the Commons will approve the deal on 19th and then government applies for a technical extension to 31st January to pass required legislation.

    As long as the deal is agreed by HOC so Brexit is enshrined a technical extension to 31st January to wrap up legislation is sellable.

    That technical extension could allow for an election too. Actually an election may be needed anyway to make sure people don't start plyying silly buggers with the votes on the required legislation.
  • malcolmg said:

    blueblue said:

    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    Angela could say Nien.
    The German position is almost entirely dictated by Ireland. Dublin has never been, and will never be, so powerful.

    If Varadkar OK’s an agreement, Berlin and Brussels will sigh with relief, and it will be done. The French want us out anyway, they won’t be a problem.
    Fair play, that makes a refreshing change from the usual 'in the end the EU is going to shat all over Ireland & Leo' Brexiteer fare. Good to know that occasionally small countries can be made more powerful by being part of a union.
    "Good to know that occasionally small countries can be made more powerful by being part of a union."

    Did you really mean to post that sentence? :wink:
    Did you really not get my fairly explicit point?
    TUD, are you not confusing a real union with an imperialist colony pretendy one.
    I'm all mixed up, I keep hearing about this ant-democratic union that ignores the interests of its members and imposes decisions upon them without consultation.
  • If the ERGers do end up supporting some kind of deal, it will be because the Benn Act has closed off crash-out.

    I must say I'm sceptical though.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    The key is the DUP. If they are on board, then I would expect most of the Spartans to be on board.

    By being intransigent, the Spartans toppled May and got someone more amenable. There is no-one more amenable to the Spartans than Boris and of course they also have the likes of Patel and Raab in high office.
    Also to add, in my view, the bigger hurdle to ratification will be the 22 ex-Tories. Most of them voted for May's deal but some of them are moving towards more remain positions and there seems to be a lot of personal animosity towards Boris
    i read in the press that it was 6 or 7 hardcore members that convinced the rest that their was safety in numbers. So if they all voted against their would be no whip withdrawal. This was somewhat corroborated by another report later saying the non-hardcore members had received messages that if they showed loyalty then the whip would be restored. The 6 or 7 hardcore their is no chance they are out.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    TGOHF2 said:
    Has she made any effort to explain the SLab position on Brexit from which she has resiled, just for the benefit of us poor, confused punters?
    Not her job any more. Former MSP, former party member. She's just another one of the huddled masses these days. Welcome, Kezia. We've been expecting you.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    On the other hand, this is Boris we're talking about, so maybe- just maybe- he's the right man in the right place at the right time.

    That was always my hope: that he would be the ultra cynical negotiator we needed, prepared to betray or throw anyone under the bus.

    Of course, should that be the case, it'd make him somewhat worrying to have a majority.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    edited October 2019
    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.

    Edit: Nice to talk about something none Brexit :wink:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Bloody hell.
    Have you been dropping acid ?
    I might have had a single nip of whisky earlier in the evening, but nothing more! :D
    Unless you had some very dodgy cheese, you have an ... interesting subconscious.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.
    PB. Come for the politics, stay for the vacuum cleaners
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Corbyns Communist Utopia.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think one thing in Johnson’s favour .

    Leavers need him to succeed , if he can’t deliver Brexit then who can and if anyone can sell a deal he should .

    And because he was in the eyes of many Leavers the architect of Brexit then he has more goodwill than May ever had .

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DougSeal said:

    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.
    PB. Come for the politics, stay for the vacuum cleaners
    Fun fact... along with Subway, Dyson is one of the two brands almost ubiquitous in Korean TV drama product placement.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Bloody hell.
    Have you been dropping acid ?
    I might have had a single nip of whisky earlier in the evening, but nothing more! :D
    Unless you had some very dodgy cheese, you have an ... interesting subconscious.
    No, no cheese. The weirdness of that particular episode is entirely self-generated :neutral:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DougSeal said:

    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.
    PB. Come for the politics, stay for the vacuum cleaners
    Henries are good. I am a fan of GTech.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    One FBPE type on Twitter was begging Leo not to betray Britain by reaching an agreement with Shagger. :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    edited October 2019
    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it quickly at need.
  • Andrew said:


    On the other hand, this is Boris we're talking about, so maybe- just maybe- he's the right man in the right place at the right time.

    That was always my hope: that he would be the ultra cynical negotiator we needed, prepared to betray or throw anyone under the bus.

    Of course, should that be the case, it'd make him somewhat worrying to have a majority.
    Maybe he'll get a passable Brexit, then be brought down in short order by something like his Technology Lessons.

    Perhaps God really is an Englishman.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Corbyns Customs Union.

    Ralph is correct
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    Well of course. It has the word "Corbyn" in it.

    The only Corbyn of any note is, of course, Corbyn Dallas ;)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it.

    My hunch is keep hold of them for now. What looks like a dawn might merely be the headlights of the car that will squash us.
    If you get a sniff of a referendum being offered, buy GBP as much as you can.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Corbyns Communist Utopia.
    :wink:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Corbyns Customs Union?
    Yes
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited October 2019
    If the main protagonists can reach an agreement then I find it difficult to believe even our current parliament would reject the deal and be so transparently contemptuous of the people.

    And besides, for many Labour MPs seeing the back of Brexit will mean their chances of being re-elected at the next GE being greatly improved.

    Even the LD's can immediately swing in to 'Rejoin' mode.

    The only losers are the independents who have cut their ties with the main parties.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2019
    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it quickly at need.

    As Mr Varadkar put it so eloquently:

    "There's many a slip,
    between cup and lip",
    but the cup's still at least half full.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    Well of course. It has the word "Corbyn" in it.

    The only Corbyn of any note is, of course, Corbyn Dallas ;)
    Now *that* is one of my all time favourite movies.

    Multipass.
  • One FBPE type on Twitter was begging Leo not to betray Britain by reaching an agreement with Shagger. :D

    I'm aiming to make it to 31st October without having to bother to find out what FBPE actually means.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    That would be #CCUIBOC
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    Well of course. It has the word "Corbyn" in it.

    The only Corbyn of any note is, of course, Corbyn Dallas ;)
    Now *that* is one of my all time favourite movies.

    Multipass.
    It is a great movie. I watch it any time I need a laugh. Since Brexit started I have watched it 1,281,271 times. :D:D

    Personally I rather like Jean. Baptiste. Emmanuel. Zorg!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    That would be #CCUIBOC
    Fair point, although I think your version would look better on the side of a mug.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    Noo said:

    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it.

    My hunch is keep hold of them for now. What looks like a dawn might merely be the headlights of the car that will squash us.
    If you get a sniff of a referendum being offered, buy GBP as much as you can.
    I am bloody terrible at currency movement. Seriously: I'm so bad at it I'm a contraindicator. So working this out is a thing. My trigger for tradeout is a deal, but of course a deal is not a single event, it's a process. I like the idea of holding on to them for a while because lazy, but...well, we'll see what the week brings.

    Thank you for the advice. If anybody else has advice, please say and I will read it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    Surrendered! Call this a surrender.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZbxYGy3As
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    One FBPE type on Twitter was begging Leo not to betray Britain by reaching an agreement with Shagger. :D

    I'm aiming to make it to 31st October without having to bother to find out what FBPE actually means.
    Its Corbyns Customs Union for dyslexics I think
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    DougSeal said:

    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.
    PB. Come for the politics, stay for the vacuum cleaners
    I prefer a brush myself. It has the advantage that if any Conservative PPC's knock on the door, then I can do a Nora Batty and chase them with the brush.

    It really does not work with a hoover...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791

    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it quickly at need.

    As Mr Varadkar put it so eloquently:

    "There's many a slip,
    between cup and lip",
    but the cup's still at least half full.
    Thank you.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    I'm aiming to make it to 31st October without having to bother to find out what FBPE actually means.


    Florida Board of Professional Engineers. Or possible the Belgian federation of landscape contractors.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2019

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    DougSeal said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    CCU? Company Care Unit?
    Cardiac Care Unit? Colorado Christian University?
    Corbyn's Customs Union. It's bollocks, of course.
    Well of course. It has the word "Corbyn" in it.

    The only Corbyn of any note is, of course, Corbyn Dallas ;)
    Now *that* is one of my all time favourite movies.

    Multipass.
    It is a great movie. I watch it any time I need a laugh. Since Brexit started I have watched it 1,281,271 times. :D:D

    Personally I rather like Jean. Baptiste. Emmanuel. Zorg!
    Oldman's best years. He was great in that, and great and terrifying in Leon (Luc Besson again!).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,818

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    How does language like this help? Both sides have to move for a compromise to work.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    viewcode said:

    Noo said:

    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it.

    My hunch is keep hold of them for now. What looks like a dawn might merely be the headlights of the car that will squash us.
    If you get a sniff of a referendum being offered, buy GBP as much as you can.
    I am bloody terrible at currency movement. Seriously: I'm so bad at it I'm a contraindicator. So working this out is a thing. My trigger for tradeout is a deal, but of course a deal is not a single event, it's a process. I like the idea of holding on to them for a while because lazy, but...well, we'll see what the week brings.

    Thank you for the advice. If anybody else has advice, please say and I will read it.
    It's simple, really. Everything that's happened and public knowledge is already priced in. You buy and sell now on the basis of what you think will happen in the future. In order to win, you need to have better knowledge (or guess well) what will happen next.
    I really don't know what's going to happen and nor do the other clowns on here, so don't listen to any of us. I sold pounds and bought Australian dollars a couple of months before the referendum because I had a hunch Leave would win and that the pound would tumble. But if I'd called the result wrong, I'd have lost money, because the pound would have climbed. Set-piece events like that are rare, and I wouldn't get involved most of the time because there's a lot more to it than political events. I can't be bothered studying all the economic data in detail. We might be heading for another inflection point, and my hunch is still pound down rather dramatically. But the mood music today is the opposite of that, so maybe I've got this one wrong.
  • Given what he has said and done over the last couple of years, it would require chutzpah of the highest order to move to a position with a chance of satisfying Ireland's needs.

    On the other hand, this is Boris we're talking about, so maybe- just maybe- he's the right man in the right place at the right time.

    It took a Nixon to go to China.

    Boris has the political capital to make compromises that May did not.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SunnyJim said:

    If the main protagonists can reach an agreement then I find it difficult to believe even our current parliament would reject the deal and be so transparently contemptuous of the people.

    And besides, for many Labour MPs seeing the back of Brexit will mean their chances of being re-elected at the next GE being greatly improved.

    Even the LD's can immediately swing in to 'Rejoin' mode.

    The only losers are the independents who have cut their ties with the main parties.

    Rejoin will be a vote loser . I wouldn’t vote for rejoin and I have Ode to Joy on all day !

    Once out that’s it for a generation , in the future it might be possible but it would need a huge change in public opinion .

    I think the better way to go for pro EU parties is to put forward a very close EU relationship in their manifestos , if the Lib Dems include FOM all the better but I won’t be voting for rejoin so soon after three years of this fiasco .
  • The key is the DUP. If they are on board, then I would expect most of the Spartans to be on board.

    By being intransigent, the Spartans toppled May and got someone more amenable. There is no-one more amenable to the Spartans than Boris and of course they also have the likes of Patel and Raab in high office.
    Also to add, in my view, the bigger hurdle to ratification will be the 22 ex-Tories. Most of them voted for May's deal but some of them are moving towards more remain positions and there seems to be a lot of personal animosity towards Boris
    Most of them have said they will back a deal it is no deal they are against. Quite a few have said if he gets a deal that satisfies the EU they will vote for it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    RobD said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    How does language like this help? Both sides have to move for a compromise to work.
    You can call #CCU whatever you wish Rob
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Farage focusing on Corbyn rather than Johnson on his LBC radio show. Interesting.
  • nico67 said:

    I think one thing in Johnson’s favour .

    Leavers need him to succeed , if he can’t deliver Brexit then who can and if anyone can sell a deal he should .

    And because he was in the eyes of many Leavers the architect of Brexit then he has more goodwill than May ever had .

    100% agreed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    My wife loves their hairdryer
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,818

    RobD said:

    See major news outlets all reporting Johnson has surrendered

    Looks like we are getting #CCU after all

    How does language like this help? Both sides have to move for a compromise to work.
    You can call #CCU whatever you wish Rob
    I was referring to the use of "surrender".
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    This thread is, like WW2, firmly in the past.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
    I don’t think a deal is likely . But if it happened the Boris would want an election PDQ.
    Exactly I will believe it when I see it, hard to believe after 3 years wittering that they meet for a coffee and a deal is done, lots and lots of wishful thinking.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    Some of these people seem to be gagging for the whole thing to fall apart just so the "drama" can keep going.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I think one thing in Johnson’s favour .

    Leavers need him to succeed , if he can’t deliver Brexit then who can and if anyone can sell a deal he should .

    And because he was in the eyes of many Leavers the architect of Brexit then he has more goodwill than May ever had .

    100% agreed.
    Thanks . I always thought that it needed a Brexiter to deliver Brexit . May was desperate to overcompensate for her voting Remain and she couldn’t sell compromises .

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502
    Noo said:



    I should add that I don't think I've ever had a dream about politics before. I hope it doesn't become a regular thing.

    I've had them now and then, and perhaps interestingly sometimes not involving me, which I believe is supposed to never happen - dreams usually have yourself in there somewhere, but my dreams were of X making a speech or Y sending out a leaflet. That perhaps reflects an unhealthy level of identification with X or Y...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    Noo said:

    viewcode said:

    Noo said:

    viewcode said:

    So. GBP going up. Positive noises. Question: at what point do I offload my Euros (see previous articles). Tomorrow, when Barnier says yes to entering the tunnel? Next week, when EUCO announce a deal? Next Saturday, when Parliament votes? Or 31st when we leave? I'll have to do a small movement tomorrow as a rehearsal to make sure I can move it.

    My hunch is keep hold of them for now. What looks like a dawn might merely be the headlights of the car that will squash us.
    If you get a sniff of a referendum being offered, buy GBP as much as you can.
    I am bloody terrible at currency movement. Seriously: I'm so bad at it I'm a contraindicator. So working this out is a thing. My trigger for tradeout is a deal, but of course a deal is not a single event, it's a process. I like the idea of holding on to them for a while because lazy, but...well, we'll see what the week brings.

    Thank you for the advice. If anybody else has advice, please say and I will read it.
    It's simple, really. Everything that's happened and public knowledge is already priced in. You buy and sell now on the basis of what you think will happen in the future. In order to win, you need to have better knowledge (or guess well) what will happen next.
    I really don't know what's going to happen and nor do the other clowns on here, so don't listen to any of us. I sold pounds and bought Australian dollars a couple of months before the referendum because I had a hunch Leave would win and that the pound would tumble. But if I'd called the result wrong, I'd have lost money, because the pound would have climbed. Set-piece events like that are rare, and I wouldn't get involved most of the time because there's a lot more to it than political events. I can't be bothered studying all the economic data in detail. We might be heading for another inflection point, and my hunch is still pound down rather dramatically. But the mood music today is the opposite of that, so maybe I've got this one wrong.
    Thank you.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Not a peep from Leave.EU or Arron Banks or The Brexit Party or Farage. Most odd.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,908

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    If Johnson gets a deal any ERG that reject it lose the whip and can't stand at the election.

    It all comes down to consent. My objection was always that the backstop was undemocratic. Having an NI backstop that NI consents to is fine so long as the consent is ongoing and can be opted out from in the future.

    Johnson may have played a master stroke getting DUP and others to agree to a consent process. That is the game changer. May's Deal had no consent.
    Are you sure Johnson won't have "moved" on consent?
    Think about it logically. There's 2 issues at play consent and customs. Which does each party care more about?

    Varadkar cares more about customs, so long as the consent process is reasonable it's not something the NI voters will want to end.

    Johnson cares more about consent. If NI consents to customs it's not his problem any more and nobody can complain.

    Therefore logically I predict Johnson moved on Customs more and Varadkar moved on Consent more. It's the logical compromise.
    Agreed 100%.

    Essentially it looks more like the old backstop with more of an element of consent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Bloody hell.
    Have you been dropping acid ?
    Nigel, subconsciously you want to be Scottish.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.

    Edit: Nice to talk about something none Brexit :wink:
    Wouldn’t touch Fyson with a barge poll or go into a weatherspoons
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    My wife loves their hairdryer
    Too much information

    What goes on in the bedroom stays in the bedroom
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Xtrain said:

    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
    I have a Henry and a Dyson. Henry is better for heavy duty stuff but is quite heavy and ends up marking the paintwork.
    The Dyson is great for a quick run round very light and easy to manoeuvre but you can't do the whole house on one charge.
    I also like the Dyson hand dryers which at least do dry your hands quickly.

    Edit: Nice to talk about something none Brexit :wink:
    Shark is good and fraction of price of dyson, so my wife tells me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Given what he has said and done over the last couple of years, it would require chutzpah of the highest order to move to a position with a chance of satisfying Ireland's needs.

    On the other hand, this is Boris we're talking about, so maybe- just maybe- he's the right man in the right place at the right time.

    It took a Nixon to go to China.

    Boris has the political capital to make compromises that May did not.
    You mean he will sell out as he has no principles and cares only for himself, May for all her faults wanted what was best for the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    I am having an expensive lunch just behind the White House; if the £ can perk up before the check arrives it would be good

    Medium term you shouldn't lose money buying £ at $1.22
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    If ERG MPs - and the DUP - end up accepting a Deal which they rejected when put forward by Theresa May, they will surely seem hypocritical and ridiculous. They would have to explain why they have put the country through such agony for no material gain.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    If ERG MPs - and the DUP - end up accepting a Deal which they rejected when put forward by Theresa May, they will surely seem hypocritical and ridiculous. They would have to explain why they have put the country through such agony for no material gain.

    And if ERG vote against it they will lose the Tory whip and be inelligble to stand for the party in GE 2019
  • justin124 said:

    If ERG MPs - and the DUP - end up accepting a Deal which they rejected when put forward by Theresa May, they will surely seem hypocritical and ridiculous. They would have to explain why they have put the country through such agony for no material gain.

    If the changes we are guessing will be agreed have been it won't be May's Deal it would be a much more democratic and more acceptable deal.

    95% of May's Deal was acceptable. Not all great but acceptable. Tweaking what wasn't acceptable to make it such is all that is needed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,315
    Anorak said:

    Not a peep from Leave.EU or Arron Banks or The Brexit Party or Farage. Most odd.

    Farage got burned over prorogation so he’s probably waiting to see which way the wind’s blowing.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Post of the year right here.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    I heard the famous 'sound of silence' for the first time when I used that line in a pre production meeting for Bissel in Chicago. The line that brought down the wall of silence was 'We can hoover....'

    Suddenly all the little chats and fiddling with pencils and mumbles of agreement stopped. There was complete silence. They had got an English director to shoot a Bissel commercial and agency client and production company had gathered to hear how I planned to do it and I'd thought I was shooting for their biggest competitor..HOOVER
This discussion has been closed.