Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure mounts from Britain’s biggest car manufacturer

124

Comments

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Both sides will be spinning it as a win for them. Reality will be somewhere in the middle I suppose.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    If Johnson gets a deal , even you will have to give him some credit.
    As would I , as I thought no deal , was the plan.

    I would be deighted if he gets a deal, genuinely. But I just do nt see how it happens. It would split the Tories and be a gift to the BXP. I just cannot see Johnson doing that. If he does, he will show himself to be putting country first and people like me will have been proved utterly wrong about him.

    BXP are dead the second we are out. However we get out. If they want to continue as the BNP they can do so but will be irrelevant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    It is the most despicable, utterly callous thing he has done to date. He is allowing Turkey to commit atrocities and ethnic cleansing on allies that have been fighting shoulder to shoulder with American troops against Islamic terrorists.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    If Johnson gets a deal , even you will have to give him some credit.
    As would I , as I thought no deal , was the plan.

    I would be deighted if he gets a deal, genuinely. But I just do nt see how it happens. It would split the Tories and be a gift to the BXP. I just cannot see Johnson doing that. If he does, he will show himself to be putting country first and people like me will have been proved utterly wrong about him.

    I agree.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.
  • nico67 said:

    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .

    Good advice indeed
  • GIN1138 said:

    Both sides will be spinning it as a win for them. Reality will be somewhere in the middle I suppose.
    As should be the case with any compromise.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
    What Trump has done is despicable. Worse, he’s done it because he’s demented and silly. I don’t think he has any real idea of the geopolitical consequences: it’s all impulse.

    Impeach him now.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    It is best for everyone involved if we can get both sides moving together on both customs and consent. Perhaps the UK agrees to an EU-leaning position on customs and the EU agrees to a UK-leaning position on democratic consent? Only an extremist can oppose NI remaining in the Customs Union if it the democratic will of the Northern Irish people, and the process is acceptable to both communities.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .

    This whole process has been significantly derailed by "talking heads" on both sides sitting on the sidelines thinking they know far more than they do

    Norman Smith on the BBC was claiming only four hours ago that there was more chance of Ed Balls becoming a world dancing champion than there was a deal with the UK and Ireland/EU.

    This kind of 24/7 bullshit from people who know the sum of **** all has made the whole process far more traumatic than it ever needed to be IMO.

    Let 24hr news and social media die. Kill it if you have to. :D
  • Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    I think it has to be worse thing he has done. It is going to result in 1000s dead and displaced, and the message it sends to the world is that you can't trust the US. Instead who are people going to turn to for support? Russia? China?

    A racist tweet pales in comparison.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
    What Trump has done is despicable. Worse, he’s done it because he’s demented and silly. I don’t think he has any real idea of the geopolitical consequences: it’s all impulse.

    Impeach him now.
    Yep. The GOP needs to face up to their responsibilities to the nation now, and stop defending this maniac. Trump is clearly very ill.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
    What Trump has done is despicable. Worse, he’s done it because he’s demented and silly. I don’t think he has any real idea of the geopolitical consequences: it’s all impulse.

    Impeach him now.
    The favourable explanation is that he got rolled by Erdogan due to his incompetence and naivety. The unfavourable explanation is that he agreed to it in exchange for electoral help and/or commercial benefits for his Turkish hotels.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
    What Trump has done is despicable. Worse, he’s done it because he’s demented and silly. I don’t think he has any real idea of the geopolitical consequences: it’s all impulse.

    Impeach him now.
    Yep. The GOP needs to face up to their responsibilities to the nation now, and stop defending this maniac. Trump is clearly very ill.
    His withdrawal from the Open Skies agreement also adds to the ways he is making the world worst.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    Johnson prefers removing briefs to reading them.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    It is best for everyone involved if we can get both sides moving together on both customs and consent. Perhaps the UK agrees to an EU-leaning position on customs and the EU agrees to a UK-leaning position on democratic consent? Only an extremist can oppose NI remaining in the Customs Union if it the democratic will of the Northern Irish people, and the process is acceptable to both communities.
    So long as there is an ongoing democratic consent process I'm fine with that.

    My suggestion would be a double-lock of that the consent is ongoing unless Stormont rejects it in which case if Stormont rejects it then it goes to a referendum. If the referendum approves consent then it is renewed for 4 more years, if the referendum rejects it then the consent expires.

    So for consent to expire it would need BOTH Stormont AND a majority by referendum to pull the plug.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    If Johnson gets a deal , even you will have to give him some credit.
    As would I , as I thought no deal , was the plan.

    I would be deighted if he gets a deal, genuinely. But I just do nt see how it happens. It would split the Tories and be a gift to the BXP. I just cannot see Johnson doing that. If he does, he will show himself to be putting country first and people like me will have been proved utterly wrong about him.
    Maybe he's smarter than we all thought, and this is the route to a Blair-style neverending speaking tour of the US at $100k a pop.

    ....nah.
  • Byronic said:
    Let's not start sucking each other's popsicles yet.
    We're not into male modeling, and a lot of things can still go wrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    There will be enough in it for the ERG to stay on board (or most of them) IMO but we may see an eruption from Arlene... I wouldn't want to be Boris Johnson's ear drums in about two hours time. ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    Farage offering no deal vs Boris with a deal... I’d say the leave vote would break 90/10 Boris
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1182323900912427009
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Gabs2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    It is best for everyone involved if we can get both sides moving together on both customs and consent. Perhaps the UK agrees to an EU-leaning position on customs and the EU agrees to a UK-leaning position on democratic consent? Only an extremist can oppose NI remaining in the Customs Union if it the democratic will of the Northern Irish people, and the process is acceptable to both communities.
    So long as there is an ongoing democratic consent process I'm fine with that.

    My suggestion would be a double-lock of that the consent is ongoing unless Stormont rejects it in which case if Stormont rejects it then it goes to a referendum. If the referendum approves consent then it is renewed for 4 more years, if the referendum rejects it then the consent expires.

    So for consent to expire it would need BOTH Stormont AND a majority by referendum to pull the plug.
    Nothing wrong with what you're suggesting there, except...
    why does NI get a veto on this when it doesn't on the concept of Brexit itself?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .

    Good advice indeed
    Thanks . The media in general seem determined to crash the negotiations. Don’t get me wrong I’m very sad about the UK leaving but I’m much more worried about a no deal .

    Some seem willing to risk everything to get their perfect outcome , I’m just not willing to risk a no deal in the faint hope of getting another EU vote .

    The WA isn’t just about the three issues we keep hearing about , it covers a huge range of other important issues .

    There’s a reason it took so long to negotiate . I will be absolutely disgusted with MPs if they vote down any new deal .

    If it’s good enough for the UK , the EU and Ireland then that’s it . The opposition then need to try and win the argument over our future relationship.

    I’ll of course be happy to vote for the party that promises the closest EU relationship but not rejoining .

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
  • Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    If Johnson gets a deal any ERG that reject it lose the whip and can't stand at the election.

    It all comes down to consent. My objection was always that the backstop was undemocratic. Having an NI backstop that NI consents to is fine so long as the consent is ongoing and can be opted out from in the future.

    Johnson may have played a master stroke getting DUP and others to agree to a consent process. That is the game changer. May's Deal had no consent.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Oh god please let it happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:


    Thanks . The media in general seem determined to crash the negotiations. Don’t get me wrong I’m very sad about the UK leaving but I’m much more worried about a no deal .

    Buzzfeed News in particular always seem determined to torpedo something or someone every passing day it seems.
    "Here's Alex Wickham trying to ruin Pulpstar's betting positions"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    nico67 said:

    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .

    This whole process has been significantly derailed by "talking heads" on both sides sitting on the sidelines thinking they know far more than they do

    Norman Smith on the BBC was claiming only four hours ago that there was more chance of Ed Balls becoming a world dancing champion than there was a deal with the UK and Ireland/EU.

    This kind of 24/7 bullshit from people who know the sum of **** all has made the whole process far more traumatic than it ever needed to be IMO.

    Let 24hr news and social media die. Kill it if you have to. :D
    Great post . Couldn’t agree more .
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    I hate those hand dryers too.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Yes. This will be the end of Trump. Not Ukraine or Giuliani or pee-gate or Epstein. It will be his grotesque betrayal of the Kurds which makes Americans look cowardly, unmanly and villainous. It will enrage his core vote, eg Fox News
    Let's hope so.
    What Trump has done is despicable. Worse, he’s done it because he’s demented and silly. I don’t think he has any real idea of the geopolitical consequences: it’s all impulse.

    Impeach him now.
    Good on Fox for reporting it this way [things I thought I'd never say]. Looks like Rupe has read the writing on the wall.

    I see Trump is now bigging up OANN.com as his news outlet of choice. It's Trump sycophancy is genuinely stomach-curdling.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    Farage offering no deal vs Boris with a deal... I’d say the leave vote would break 90/10 Boris

    Yes. It’s time for Nigel to shut the fuck up. He’s got his place in history. Now he can retire to Germany to be closer to his family.
  • Noo said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    It is best for everyone involved if we can get both sides moving together on both customs and consent. Perhaps the UK agrees to an EU-leaning position on customs and the EU agrees to a UK-leaning position on democratic consent? Only an extremist can oppose NI remaining in the Customs Union if it the democratic will of the Northern Irish people, and the process is acceptable to both communities.
    So long as there is an ongoing democratic consent process I'm fine with that.

    My suggestion would be a double-lock of that the consent is ongoing unless Stormont rejects it in which case if Stormont rejects it then it goes to a referendum. If the referendum approves consent then it is renewed for 4 more years, if the referendum rejects it then the consent expires.

    So for consent to expire it would need BOTH Stormont AND a majority by referendum to pull the plug.
    Nothing wrong with what you're suggesting there, except...
    why does NI get a veto on this when it doesn't on the concept of Brexit itself?
    Brexit applies to the whole UK so the whole UK vote counts.

    An NI only backstop applies only to NI so NI must consent.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    You can't beat Henry.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Byronic said:
    Varadkar is playing a blinder. He's teed Johnson up to take the blame if it fails.
  • Hope so!

    I always said if a deal was to eventually be done it would be done between the PM and Taoiseach.

    Ok that's a lie. I said it would be between the PM and Irish PM. Point stands though lol.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    Farage offering no deal vs Boris with a deal... I’d say the leave vote would break 90/10 Boris

    Yes. It’s time for Nigel to shut the fuck up. He’s got his place in history. Now he can retire to Germany to be closer to his family.
    Isn't he separated now?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    We seem to be at the stage where the husband who wanted a divorce is staying with the wife, but allowed to go out Friday and come home Sunday no questions asked
  • Hoping to hear and see a furious Private Francois and Bridgen et al before too long all red-faced and nappy wetting.

    Might even make me re-join the Blue team if that happened....

    IF.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Tabman said:

    Byronic said:
    Varadkar is playing a blinder. He's teed Johnson up to take the blame if it fails.
    Let's hope they can stuff Corbyn's plans together.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    It is best for everyone involved if we can get both sides moving together on both customs and consent. Perhaps the UK agrees to an EU-leaning position on customs and the EU agrees to a UK-leaning position on democratic consent? Only an extremist can oppose NI remaining in the Customs Union if it the democratic will of the Northern Irish people, and the process is acceptable to both communities.
    So long as there is an ongoing democratic consent process I'm fine with that.

    My suggestion would be a double-lock of that the consent is ongoing unless Stormont rejects it in which case if Stormont rejects it then it goes to a referendum. If the referendum approves consent then it is renewed for 4 more years, if the referendum rejects it then the consent expires.

    So for consent to expire it would need BOTH Stormont AND a majority by referendum to pull the plug.
    Nothing wrong with what you're suggesting there, except...
    why does NI get a veto on this when it doesn't on the concept of Brexit itself?
    Brexit applies to the whole UK so the whole UK vote counts.

    An NI only backstop applies only to NI so NI must consent.
    You say it applies to the whole UK, but under this idea it's being applied differently in NI and in Britain. Seems like the difficulty is coming from that differentiation. Why not just apply the same thing to the whole of the UK? Doesn't this prise NI gradually away from the UK?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    blueblue said:

    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    Angela could say Nien.
    The German position is almost entirely dictated by Ireland. Dublin has never been, and will never be, so powerful.

    If Varadkar OK’s an agreement, Berlin and Brussels will sigh with relief, and it will be done. The French want us out anyway, they won’t be a problem.
    Fair play, that makes a refreshing change from the usual 'in the end the EU is going to shat all over Ireland & Leo' Brexiteer fare. Good to know that occasionally small countries can be made more powerful by being part of a union.
    "Good to know that occasionally small countries can be made more powerful by being part of a union."

    Did you really mean to post that sentence? :wink:
    Did you really not get my fairly explicit point?
    TUD, are you not confusing a real union with an imperialist colony pretendy one.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Apparently 60,000 Syrians have fled the Turkish advance since Trump’s announcement. So that’s another migration crisis to add to the chaos.

    Trump is a [redacted]
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The car industry is brutal*. I always thought it was a huge leap for them, with minimal staff (500 engineers compared to the giants of car industry is nothing) and huge competition.

    * How many stand alone car companies are there these days? Most brands are subsidiaries of a handful all sharing technology. Even Ford is getting out of the car game in the US.
    Dyson hoovers are really quite rubbish and surprisingly poorly designed. IMO.

    And bloody expensive for what they are.

    Little wonder he can't design cars.
    My wife loves her Dyson hair dryer though.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Tabman said:

    Byronic said:
    Varadkar is playing a blinder. He's teed Johnson up to take the blame if it fails.
    And if they can't sort out the details in the next few days he will be calling on Johnson to agree an extension to finalise things.
  • Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal

    I'd like it to be the case, but …….. heard that before.
  • A deal is good for those of us who've bet against a 2019 GE.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Almost all the Spartans will accept. They can sense the national mood. Many Labour MPs will accept. Do they care what Corbyn thinks? - no, he’s leading them to electoral oblivion. They hate him.

    A deal has a good chance of passing. There will be intense pressure on all MPs to pass it, from a weary, angry and expectant country.
  • Andrew said:


    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal

    I'd like it to be the case, but …….. heard that before.
    Did you not read the submission by 18 labour mps on the 8th October direct to Junckers pleading for a deal
  • Noo said:

    You say it applies to the whole UK, but under this idea it's being applied differently in NI and in Britain. Seems like the difficulty is coming from that differentiation. Why not just apply the same thing to the whole of the UK? Doesn't this prise NI gradually away from the UK?

    NI has always had differences with the rest of the UK. However the principle has always been those are differences NI wants.

    If NI consents to a difference it's fine. If it doesn't it's not. Not complicated.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    If Johnson gets a deal any ERG that reject it lose the whip and can't stand at the election.

    It all comes down to consent. My objection was always that the backstop was undemocratic. Having an NI backstop that NI consents to is fine so long as the consent is ongoing and can be opted out from in the future.

    Johnson may have played a master stroke getting DUP and others to agree to a consent process. That is the game changer. May's Deal had no consent.
    Are you sure Johnson won't have "moved" on consent?
  • TGOHF2 said:
    What is labours position on brexit
  • Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal
    No. This is just the WA part. Johnson's proposed changes to the political declaration make it impossible for more than half a dozen Labour MPs to back it. Especially now it will grant Johnson a *pre election* triumph.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Pulpstar said:


    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.

    It's hard to see any deal acceptable to Ireland and to the EU as a whole being acceptable to the ERG, and also any deal negotiated by Boris as being acceptable to Labour. Therefore, it is very hard to see any deal passing in this parliament. That being the case, Boris is going have to break his do-or-die pledge, or at least acquiesce to allowing the Benn Act to break it for him, and then call an election where he stands on a manifesto of ratifying the new, shiny Boris deal. If he can achieve that, and get a majority to implement it, he'll have gently untied the Gordian Knot.

    But can he get that past the Conservative Party in its current state? And would he get his majority if he's broken his do-or-die pledge and agreed to a deal which Farage and the heavies will merrily be throwing rocks at?
    He's got to sell it to the lovely Arlene first!
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Almost all the Spartans will accept. They can sense the national mood. Many Labour MPs will accept. Do they care what Corbyn thinks? - no, he’s leading them to electoral oblivion. They hate him.

    A deal has a good chance of passing. There will be intense pressure on all MPs to pass it, from a weary, angry and expectant country.
    The Spartans are a subset of the ERG. They won't accept. We will likely need 20-30 Labour votes. The question is whether they want to put country first or double down on the centrifugal pressures tearing us apart.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
  • This seems a bit too good to be true, but what a weight off our minds if Johnson does choose to face down the DUP, ERG and BXP. I won't vote for him, but he would deserve to win an election.
  • Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal
    No. This is just the WA part. Johnson's proposed changes to the political declaration make it impossible for more than half a dozen Labour MPs to back it. Especially now it will grant Johnson a *pre election* triumph.
    Have you got the detail of the agreed deal by any chance
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
    I don’t think a deal is likely . But if it happened the Boris would want an election PDQ.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Then there will be an extension, and - as Johnson has put himself a mile away from having a majority - an election, and what remains of the Tory party will be split in two going into it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Tabman said:

    Do you know, I’m old enough to remember when it was three million jobs that relied on not leaving the EU....... Or was that joining the Euro? I forget.

    We now mostly seem to be debating 7000 in Sunderland, to which something might happen. Or it might not, depending on potential tax breaks and the need for import substitution.

    And, hello.

    So much ignorance in this message.

    Nissan is not *just* 7,000 jobs. It supports so many more in the North East. There’s then 20,000 jobs in the supply chain and then many more services on top of that.

    If it goes it will just be like closing the pits all over again. More lost generations in the North East.
    You’re quite young aren’t you? You (and the thread header) are conjuring up the straw man of a world in which it’s not economical to export cars from the U.K. to Europe, and/or impractical to import components. However in your straw man, our own tariffs apparently have no impact on domestic demand, and no U.K. industry can step in and replace components for exports that don’t go to the EU.

    Basically, the world isn’t as a simple as you’d like it to be; and I’m afraid you’re unlikely to be able to see the end of manufacturing in the U.K. as seems to be your wish, all so you can blame the wicked Leavers.

    A No Deal scenario will be unpleasant, but manageable, and regurgitating bits and pieces of half remembered press releases and scare stories won’t help anyone.
    I think all the above does is show how little you understand about complex multinational supply chains and the economics of manufacturing in the modern world.

    Are you retired?
    That's funny!
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Noo said:

    You say it applies to the whole UK, but under this idea it's being applied differently in NI and in Britain. Seems like the difficulty is coming from that differentiation. Why not just apply the same thing to the whole of the UK? Doesn't this prise NI gradually away from the UK?

    NI has always had differences with the rest of the UK. However the principle has always been those are differences NI wants.

    If NI consents to a difference it's fine. If it doesn't it's not. Not complicated.
    Northern Ireland voted by a majority to remain in the EU, so it has already consented to a difference from rUK. It's only the DUP that doesn't consent, and they're not a majority.
  • Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    ERG will be told they lose the whip if they don't sign up. And like Nixon to China Boris is more trusted and able to sell a compromise to them than May was who wasn't trusted.

    Former Tories for a deal have said they'll back one. They'll probably regain the whip if they want it if they back a deal.

    Up to 40 Labour MPs have said they'd back a deal. Easy to say when they thought Boris wouldn't get one but hard to row back on now.

    Rest of the opposition will be called out on their anti no deal hysterics if they reject a deal a 4th time.

    DUP could go either way. I imagine it depends upon the consent principle and any sweeteners for them.

    Finally there's always the possibility EU say no more extensions this deal needs to be signed. Especially if Boris says he'll remove the whip from any ERG who vote it down.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Noo said:

    You say it applies to the whole UK, but under this idea it's being applied differently in NI and in Britain. Seems like the difficulty is coming from that differentiation. Why not just apply the same thing to the whole of the UK? Doesn't this prise NI gradually away from the UK?

    NI has always had differences with the rest of the UK. However the principle has always been those are differences NI wants.

    If NI consents to a difference it's fine. If it doesn't it's not. Not complicated.
    Bullshit. Between 1972 and 1999 NI was governed by the fiat of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, who introduced whatever was in the interests of London at the time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Time for that Clockwise quote -

    “It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.”
  • Andrew said:

    OK, so say we have something the UK govt / Ireland / EU can accept. I'm guessing that'll mean something the DUP can't accept, the Spartans will go nuts, and Labour will auto-vote against anything the govt proposes.

    How does it pass the commons? Will struggle to get to 250, let alone 320.

    Upto 40 labour mps will vote for a deal
    No. This is just the WA part. Johnson's proposed changes to the political declaration make it impossible for more than half a dozen Labour MPs to back it. Especially now it will grant Johnson a *pre election* triumph.
    I would just bin the political declaration. Put down a WA agreement bill with an election date included. Have an election. The new government gets to decide the political declaration.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
    I don’t think a deal is likely . But if it happened the Boris would want an election PDQ.
    Should largely depend on the 'perceived favourability' of said deal.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
    I don’t think a deal is likely . But if it happened the Boris would want an election PDQ.
    I think the issue is a deal means a WA ratification Act which means a short technical extension. That shoves the election into Jan or Feb.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    A deal is good for those of us who've bet against a 2019 GE.

    Not sure. The Commons arthimatic is still the same in that no one has the numbers to govern.

    I could see a the deal passing HOC on 19th October followed by an election being agreed to on 21st October as Boris's Queen Speech is voted down.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited October 2019
    Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    If Johnson gets a deal , even you will have to give him some credit.
    As would I , as I thought no deal , was the plan.
    I doubt any Remain voter will give him any credit whatsoever. He is more responsible for getting us into this mess than anyone with the exception of Cameron. Slightly alleviating the catastrophy of his making after three and a half years deserves nothing .
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    If Johnson gets a deal any ERG that reject it lose the whip and can't stand at the election.

    It all comes down to consent. My objection was always that the backstop was undemocratic. Having an NI backstop that NI consents to is fine so long as the consent is ongoing and can be opted out from in the future.

    Johnson may have played a master stroke getting DUP and others to agree to a consent process. That is the game changer. May's Deal had no consent.
    Are you sure Johnson won't have "moved" on consent?
    Think about it logically. There's 2 issues at play consent and customs. Which does each party care more about?

    Varadkar cares more about customs, so long as the consent process is reasonable it's not something the NI voters will want to end.

    Johnson cares more about consent. If NI consents to customs it's not his problem any more and nobody can complain.

    Therefore logically I predict Johnson moved on Customs more and Varadkar moved on Consent more. It's the logical compromise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nico67 said:

    I really wish these so called sources would STFU and stop trying to crash the negotiations .

    Both sides need to compromise , and I’m sure that’s what will happen to get a deal.

    It doesn’t do any good for these apparent capitulation comments to be peddled .

    Let’s wait and see what any deal looks like .

    This whole process has been significantly derailed by "talking heads" on both sides sitting on the sidelines thinking they know far more than they do

    Norman Smith on the BBC was claiming only four hours ago that there was more chance of Ed Balls becoming a world dancing champion than there was a deal with the UK and Ireland/EU.

    This kind of 24/7 bullshit from people who know the sum of **** all has made the whole process far more traumatic than it ever needed to be IMO.

    Let 24hr news and social media die. Kill it if you have to. :D
    Great post . Couldn’t agree more .
    Well it would be - if that weren't precisely what we spend every day doing here on PB...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
  • TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    isam said:

    There's not really anything meaningful to say until we see some detail. Things do sound a bit more optimistic.

    Good for the no GE 19 bet
    I would think a deal = GE 2019 .

    Take a punt then, I think you'll find someone to take the opposite side of that bet.
    I don’t think a deal is likely . But if it happened the Boris would want an election PDQ.
    I think he'd be content with a spring GE if he gets a deal. We will be out, the world won't have collapsed and he can go to a GE in good shape.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    I should add that I don't think I've ever had a dream about politics before. I hope it doesn't become a regular thing.
  • The key is the DUP. If they are on board, then I would expect most of the Spartans to be on board.

    By being intransigent, the Spartans toppled May and got someone more amenable. There is no-one more amenable to the Spartans than Boris and of course they also have the likes of Patel and Raab in high office.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    A deal is good for those of us who've bet against a 2019 GE.

    Not sure. The Commons arthimatic is still the same in that no one has the numbers to govern.

    I could see a the deal passing HOC on 19th October followed by an election being agreed to on 21st October as Boris's Queen Speech is voted down.
    We always used to be told that getting on for two months of concentrated effort would be needed to get through the required legislation after the Commons approved a deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Bloody hell.
    Have you been dropping acid ?
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    The guardian is certainly painting this as a breakthrough.

    The two leaders have dangerously raised everyone’s hopes, if they don’t follow through.

    It will be interesting to find out whether Cummings was present at any stage. Anything Johnson agrees will have to get past him.

    It’s oft ignored that Cummings is a soft Brexiteer. He also despises Farage.

    My concern is that Johnson has not read briefs and has agreed stuff with Varadkar that he has not properly understood and not yet run past Cummings.

    It's not really a concern if Varadkar has managed to somehow hoodwink Johnson into presenting May's deal back to the Commons again, more party time at Vardy's house.
    Glad nobody is extrapolating from a tweet.

    Labour and LD fury if Boris does get near a deal will be of the charts Btw.
    To say nothing of the fury of the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1182318598926327810?s=21
    So how does this go? Boris Johnson negotiates a deal with the EU and the ERG sabotages it? Here we go again ...
    If Johnson gets a deal any ERG that reject it lose the whip and can't stand at the election.

    It all comes down to consent. My objection was always that the backstop was undemocratic. Having an NI backstop that NI consents to is fine so long as the consent is ongoing and can be opted out from in the future.

    Johnson may have played a master stroke getting DUP and others to agree to a consent process. That is the game changer. May's Deal had no consent.
    Are you sure Johnson won't have "moved" on consent?
    Think about it logically. There's 2 issues at play consent and customs. Which does each party care more about?

    Varadkar cares more about customs, so long as the consent process is reasonable it's not something the NI voters will want to end.

    Johnson cares more about consent. If NI consents to customs it's not his problem any more and nobody can complain.

    Therefore logically I predict Johnson moved on Customs more and Varadkar moved on Consent more. It's the logical compromise.
    I think that's largely correct. Mr Johnson will have moved more on customs and slightly less, optically at least, on the method of establishing consent.
  • Given what he has said and done over the last couple of years, it would require chutzpah of the highest order to move to a position with a chance of satisfying Ireland's needs.

    On the other hand, this is Boris we're talking about, so maybe- just maybe- he's the right man in the right place at the right time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    The key is the DUP. If they are on board, then I would expect most of the Spartans to be on board.

    By being intransigent, the Spartans toppled May and got someone more amenable. There is no-one more amenable to the Spartans than Boris and of course they also have the likes of Patel and Raab in high office.
    Steve Baker and Francois will object, seeing as the new deal (if there is one) doesn't include returning Calais to the English.
  • The key is the DUP. If they are on board, then I would expect most of the Spartans to be on board.

    By being intransigent, the Spartans toppled May and got someone more amenable. There is no-one more amenable to the Spartans than Boris and of course they also have the likes of Patel and Raab in high office.
    Also to add, in my view, the bigger hurdle to ratification will be the 22 ex-Tories. Most of them voted for May's deal but some of them are moving towards more remain positions and there seems to be a lot of personal animosity towards Boris
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Oh that reminds me, I had a horrible dream last night. I was in Holyrood and it seems I'd somehow just been elected a Labour MSP. I'm not sure how, since I've never voted Labour and I don't live in Scotland, so I was a little disoriented. There was about to be a vote on who the First Minister should be, and I was going to vote for Nicola Sturgeon until I thought that since I was apparently a Labour MSP, I'd better vote for my leader. I couldn't find my seat because I had no clue which constituency or region I'd been elected to, so I figured I'd write my vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in somewhere. God knows where, but first I had another problem: I couldn't remember her name. It was something like Jo Kudlvar or something. I asked one of "my" Labour colleagues and they just looked at me like I was mad. Eventually I found an old ticket or something that had been through the wash and I scribbled my best guess down, and hared it down some steps to find a box or something to post my vote into. Then I saw a friend who was some kind clerk and he was surprised to see me, so I started to explain that apparently I was an MSP now. As I was explaining, some kind of bell rang and I realised I'd missed the vote cutoff. I knew deep down that it was going to affect the whole result and the whole country would soon be laughing at me, and "my" Labour party that it couldn't even organise its MSPs to vote for their leader, and that they would be totally right. I felt stressed and ashamed, and the eyes of the whole parliament chamber were turning towards me.
    And I woke up feeling decidedly wonky about the whole thing. Typical stress dream I guess, but why in gods name a Scottish Labour MSP? Why?
    Bloody hell.
    Have you been dropping acid ?
    I might have had a single nip of whisky earlier in the evening, but nothing more! :D
  • GIN1138 said:

    A deal is good for those of us who've bet against a 2019 GE.

    Not sure. The Commons arthimatic is still the same in that no one has the numbers to govern.

    I could see a the deal passing HOC on 19th October followed by an election being agreed to on 21st October as Boris's Queen Speech is voted down.
    But in that senario Parliament doesn't pass the ratification Act. So we either no deal on 31/10 or we get an extension to cover the GE before we ratify. Is either of those senarios a good basis for Boris to fight an election ?
This discussion has been closed.