The organised opposition in this Parliament wants to neuter or cancel Brexit.
A GE is high risk and could return a Boris majority, and lose them their seats. By contrast, they might be able to engineer a second referendum without a GE if it continues.
Therefore, I expect the actions of the opposition to be focussed on the latter.
I don't disagree most might want that, but it seems to me to require: (a) agreement between virtually all of Lab, LD, SNP and Con rebels on a leader. (b) agreement between virtually all of Lab, LD, SNP and Con rebels on a 6+ month programme for government. or (c) forcing Boris (at the point of a sharpened Supreme Court) to a second referendum through more Benn-style Acts.
I just don't see that happening. (a) might possibly, but only if needed to thwart a last-minute BJ wheeze (and even for that, the SC seems the more likely tool now).
I think the Rebel Alliance will have achieved (on extension day) the outer limit of what it can realistically do. And, risky or not, that surely means a GE is next? Their collective support can only dwindle if they extend for 3 or 6 months with no purpose except more pointless spaffing from Bozza and the EU looking on in bemusement.
Boris just needs to make clear any referendum forced by parliament will be held after the next EU budget is 'agreed', and in any GE the Tories will run on a cancel the referendum, exit immediately ticket.
I think in America - and looking at the answers given in that poll - socialism really means social democracy, rather than full-blooded Foot/Corbyn socialism as we’d take it to mean here.
People will support whatever “system” they think will deliver the goods for them. If capitalism ceases to do so consistently, or at least shows up some doing much better than them, then they will start to look at alternatives even if they make the situation worse.
Must be that, I guess.
Certainly their political centre - sorry center - of gravity is to the right of ours.
Although if we end up with a Johnson landslide and they ditch Trump for Warren, this may no longer be true.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
Its an aspiration not a fact.
The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact. The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.
So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.
Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
Yes, that contradiction had passed me by. Fintan O'Toole really is one of the better writers around.
The contempt for Ireland and Irish concerns is one of the most striking and depressing characteristics of many Brexiteers.
Irish concerns are not equal to Uk concerns - if you are the Uk government - quite rightly.
They most certainly are if you are genuinely seeking to reach an agreement with them.
42% seems a pretty good score given how it's been reviled in the US for decades. Sanders openly endorsing it has probably helped.
I wonder how those scores would have looked 10 years ago.
The promising thing for the future is in some stuff on it I've seen the biggest supporter of socialism In the US are the youngest and the reverse for capitalism. Given a generation or so and these people will be deciding the countries direction.
If you're not a socialist when you're young, etc...
Good to see the youth still have a heart.
If you can produce figures showing similar in the US 10 years ago I will happily retract my statement...
Even without those figures it seems obvious that the future looks brighter for the left in the USA than it has for a very long time.
I'm not going to produce any figures but every year the world gets more connected and, now, more Greta-fied. I'd be amazed if American youth didn't increasingly reflect the views of youth abroad.
It's when they're older, working tax payers, with a mortgage, that they need to keep the faith and many don't. Hence that quote.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
As the generations move on what is acceptable or what people believe shifts based on the people that are still there, you can kid yourself that inside every young Labour and Democrat voter there is a Johnson or Trump waiting to pop out but you are likely to be very disappointed.
Don't confuse cultural and economic issues.
So people will always believe what their parents believed on economic issues but not cultural...
I’m assuming she voted for the PMs agreement with the EU after making those statements to get elected?
Heidi Allen in 2017:
“I was a Remainer, but, the minute we start ignoring the democratic will of the people in this country, we are slipping, very quickly, towards the kind of banana republic I don’t want to live in.
So we have to accept the result.”
In 2017 we apparently held all the cards and a deal would be the easiest thing on earth and the sunny uplands were waiting, no deal was project fear. It’s no wonder that some people are changing their minds.
Ah yes, that must be it
Heidi Allen and pals gambled on rejecting every form of leaving the EU resulting in us remaining... maybe it will, or maybe it will be what led to no deal.
At least she was honest about not wanting a second referendum... straight revoke!
This a a betting site where percentages and probability are understood and dissected to come up with realistic outcomes, so I'm hoping some clever souls with maybe a medical background can help me make sense of some figures..... After breast cancer surgery, where there is no more evidence of cancer in the body, a woman has an 82% chance of surviving 10 years or more without any further treatment. Radiotherapy adds another 5% to that. Hormone treatment adds another 2% to that. Chemotherapy adds another 5% to that. What do these figures really show? The question is, knowing the risks and side effects of chemotherapy, would you decline or accept it in this instance?
I would say your wife should go for it especially if they've detected lymph node involvement.
It does of course depend on her general health as Chemotherapy is obviously extremly tough on the body so if she's got underlying medical problems that does create complications but assuming she's otherwise fit and well I'd throw the kitchen sink at the litle ******
Hope all goes well and please keep us informed with her progress.
Hmm I didn't think Johnson could politically survive penning the extension letter (Even under duress) but Jo Maugham with his attempt to turn us into a lawyerocracy (Challenging an article in the specie, really ?) is clearly trying his hardest to have Johnson's inevitable U-turn exonerated in the court of public opinion.
I think that's already guaranteed. The public can now see the extraordinary lengths remainers are going to to frustrate Brexit and are champing at the bit to send them a message at the ballot box. Even ComRes is moving Jo Maugham is a very silly boy, but he does like his own press
Jezziah seemed confused as to which hoops I envisaged him having to jump through. My point was that as a Corbyn cultist his hoop will be trying to justify why having won just 262 seats and shed many of those since that Corbyn failing to win the confidence of the Commons was the fault of other parties and not the failing of Corbyn to win and retain enough seats to even have half a chance of power.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
Its an aspiration not a fact.
The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact. The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.
So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.
Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?
42% seems a pretty good score given how it's been reviled in the US for decades. Sanders openly endorsing it has probably helped.
I wonder how those scores would have looked 10 years ago.
The promising thing for the future is in some stuff on it I've seen the biggest supporter of socialism In the US are the youngest and the reverse for capitalism. Given a generation or so and these people will be deciding the countries direction.
If you're not a socialist when you're young, etc...
Good to see the youth still have a heart.
If you can produce figures showing similar in the US 10 years ago I will happily retract my statement...
Even without those figures it seems obvious that the future looks brighter for the left in the USA than it has for a very long time.
I'm not going to produce any figures but every year the world gets more connected and, now, more Greta-fied. I'd be amazed if American youth didn't increasingly reflect the views of youth abroad.
It's when they're older, working tax payers, with a mortgage, that they need to keep the faith and many don't. Hence that quote.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
As the generations move on what is acceptable or what people believe shifts based on the people that are still there, you can kid yourself that inside every young Labour and Democrat voter there is a Johnson or Trump waiting to pop out but you are likely to be very disappointed.
Don't confuse cultural and economic issues.
So people will always believe what their parents believed on economic issues but not cultural...
Put me down as a sceptic.
No people understand their own self interest in economic issues.
A student spending beer money and taking loans for education and a parent with a mortgage, bills to pay etc have very different self interests.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
Its an aspiration not a fact.
The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact. The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.
So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.
Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?
Yes, we cannot have our own trade agreements. There is no point.
Total side issue, but have we ever before had a Parliament in which so many Members left the parties of which they were members at the time of their election?
Many, many thanks for the kind words and help on those cancer figures. It's given me a better understanding. When you're in the consultant's office, no matter how many notes or questions I prepared beforehand, it just goes out of the window and my brain turns to mush!
Since my wife had breast cancer a few years ago we have been reading up on the latest research.
There appears to be several different types of breast cancer linked to different DNA modifications.
Each has a different prognosis over time and different treatment recommended.
As such applying generalised statistics may not be appropriate.
If you are lucky you could get the tumour DNA tested to help determine the appropriate treatment. But I fear that this may be too new to be accepted in the NHS?
Mr. Woolie, unless MPs opposed to our departure get through a second referendum.
They'd need to control parliament for weeks to get through everything required, and avoid an election in which the Tories run on a cancel referendum, exit strategy. And they'd need a long extension to get it in, with Boris threatening to torpedo the EU budget next year
This a a betting site where percentages and probability are understood and dissected to come up with realistic outcomes, so I'm hoping some clever souls with maybe a medical background can help me make sense of some figures..... After breast cancer surgery, where there is no more evidence of cancer in the body, a woman has an 82% chance of surviving 10 years or more without any further treatment. Radiotherapy adds another 5% to that. Hormone treatment adds another 2% to that. Chemotherapy adds another 5% to that. What do these figures really show? The question is, knowing the risks and side effects of chemotherapy, would you decline or accept it in this instance?
I would say your wife should go for it especially if they've detected lymph node involvement.
It does of course depend on her general health as Chemotherapy is obviusly extremly tough on the body so if she's got underlying medical problems that does create complications but assuming she's otherwise fit and well I'd throw the kitchen sink at the litle ******
Hope all goes well and please keep us informed with her progress.
I would suggest you get a dna profile to understand how susceptible she is to cancer. This will help in your decision making.
Total side issue, but have we ever before had a Parliament in which so many Members left the parties of which they were members at the time of their election?
Voluntary departures - the SDP exodus was bigger. Involuntary, I dont think so
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
Its an aspiration not a fact.
The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact. The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.
So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.
Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?
Yes, we cannot have our own trade agreements. There is no point.
I was initially surprised, but the grinding inequality of the USA is bound to drive people into the arms of socialists. This is a wake-up call for those on the neoliberal wing of capitalism. Time to rein it in and go in for a more solid and sustainable form of capitalism before the voters tip the whole table over.
And by the same token a true believer in the replacement of capitalism by something else ought to be rooting against such reforms.
What stops me being more Left than I am is my strong hunch that the private profit motive is indispensable to reconciling strong economic growth with individual liberty.
However, climate change, high tech, AI, the rise of the East, globalized business models and tax 'planning', exploitation of the poor and of weak and underdeveloped regions, if these sorts of challenges are left primarily to the 'market' this, for me, is tantamount to not facing them at all.
Hard Brexit now then. Revoke the 1972 European Communities Act no more talking. It's over.
Good luck with that.
At the very least you'll be waiting for a Tory majority in a GE (in which case, you're probably not far off)
If not, the options will be EURef2, and/or a Lab deal which bins off May's red lines and puts the whole UK in a close-enough relationship to overcome the border issues. It may be that a deal is "never possible" for the current No 10 regime, but I think there are several possible after a GE (if Leavers still want them).
Many, many thanks for the kind words and help on those cancer figures. It's given me a better understanding. When you're in the consultant's office, no matter how many notes or questions I prepared beforehand, it just goes out of the window and my brain turns to mush!
Mr @twistedfirestopper3 - I have had two friends who have recently had breast cancer. Both had chemo and one had radiotherapy too (I am not sure about the other one). Both are back living their lives, but they both agree that they are not back to the level of fitness that they were and both have after effects from the chemo. One says she is still recovering from the chemo.
Another woman I spoke to recently reckons she is about 80% as fit as before. Nonetheless, all three are alive and kicking and living life with their friends and family. Two of those three are very active women involved in outdoor sports.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
Yes, that contradiction had passed me by. Fintan O'Toole really is one of the better writers around.
The contempt for Ireland and Irish concerns is one of the most striking and depressing characteristics of many Brexiteers.
The problem is that Nationalism (from either the Left or Right) has a uncanny knack of resulting in violence.
A civilised country would be above this and could live in harmony with a neighbour despite religious differences and despite living in different Nations.
I’m assuming she voted for the PMs agreement with the EU after making those statements to get elected?
Heidi Allen in 2017:
“I was a Remainer, but, the minute we start ignoring the democratic will of the people in this country, we are slipping, very quickly, towards the kind of banana republic I don’t want to live in.
So we have to accept the result.”
Good to know we are still in that exact same moment, and that people should not process information over time to change their response to that same question.
I do like how lots of people ask for evidence based policy making, and then round on politicians the moment they change their minds...
Total side issue, but have we ever before had a Parliament in which so many Members left the parties of which they were members at the time of their election?
Voluntary departures - the SDP exodus was bigger. Involuntary, I dont think so
29 SDP-ers, including the one Tory. It's a bit difficult to keep up, what with all the double leavers, but surely we're past that.
When you are talking about "Norway" do you mean the actual situation for Norway (Hard customs border, inside single market) or an idealised BINO option whereby we remain inside both the customs union & single market ?
Jezziah seemed confused as to which hoops I envisaged him having to jump through. My point was that as a Corbyn cultist his hoop will be trying to justify why having won just 262 seats and shed many of those since that Corbyn failing to win the confidence of the Commons was the fault of other parties and not the failing of Corbyn to win and retain enough seats to even have half a chance of power.
Right so again off on your little mad delusions about what you imagined I had said or done....
I've said directly to you only a few days ago and previously that I don't think there are the numbers for Corbyn or anyone else.
Corbyn can probably get closest, aside from Johnson or another Tory pro no dealer which is what we are talking about replacing, so the Lib Dems could be criticised for ruling out the most viable option.
The truth is the Lib Dems and other assorted indies have decided that no deal is preferable either for the country or their political interests to letting Corbyn request the extension and call an election*
*The conversation has generally been about if Boris won't follow through on the Benn act and heads to no deal. The idea of running an alternative government whether Corbyn led or not without an election anytime soon is unrealistic IMO.
To prefer no deal to Corbyn is a perfectly acceptable political position, I disagree but that's democracy, but given these people have talked about what a disaster no deal would be it is also perfectly acceptable to criticise them for that choice.
The strong suspicion among people sceptical about their motives would be that either they don't believe no deal will be as bad as they claimed or that they are happy to put the country through that if it is in their political interests.
Right now you can ignore all my reasonable points and pretend I talked about killing my enemies or some other ludicrous rubbish your fevered imagination comes up with you nutter.
I’m assuming she voted for the PMs agreement with the EU after making those statements to get elected?
Heidi Allen in 2017:
“I was a Remainer, but, the minute we start ignoring the democratic will of the people in this country, we are slipping, very quickly, towards the kind of banana republic I don’t want to live in.
So we have to accept the result.”
Good to know we are still in that exact same moment, and that people should not process information over time to change their response to that same question.
I do like how lots of people ask for evidence based policy making, and then round on politicians the moment they change their minds...
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
The reason Merkel has said this is pretty clear. A) Integrity of the SM is important. She has lived behind a wall, separating families, communities and a nation. C) She defers to Ireland on this issue, rightly so. If the EU throws a small member under the bus, what is the point of it.
Maybe the answer is NI needs a border poll, but I bet more of the NI electorate agree with Merkel than Johnson. And if the idea is that that doesn't matter as long as the UK want to keep NI, that just feels like a colonial hangover.
Total side issue, but have we ever before had a Parliament in which so many Members left the parties of which they were members at the time of their election?
Voluntary departures - the SDP exodus was bigger. Involuntary, I dont think so
29 SDP-ers, including the one Tory. It's a bit difficult to keep up, what with all the double leavers, but surely we're past that.
Well if we include involuntary departures (the Tory 21) then yes, but not on those that have left of their own volition
42% seems a pretty good score given how it's been reviled in the US for decades. Sanders openly endorsing it has probably helped.
I wonder how those scores would have looked 10 years ago.
The promising thing for the future is in some stuff on it I've seen the biggest supporter of socialism In the US are the youngest and the reverse for capitalism. Given a generation or so and these people will be deciding the countries direction.
If you're not a socialist when you're young, etc...
Good to see the youth still have a heart.
If you can produce figures showing similar in the US 10 years ago I will happily retract my statement...
Even without those figures it seems obvious that the future looks brighter for the left in the USA than it has for a very long time.
I'm not going to produce any figures but every year the world gets more connected and, now, more Greta-fied. I'd be amazed if American youth didn't increasingly reflect the views of youth abroad.
It's when they're older, working tax payers, with a mortgage, that they need to keep the faith and many don't. Hence that quote.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
As the generations move on what is acceptable or what people believe shifts based on the people that are still there, you can kid yourself that inside every young Labour and Democrat voter there is a Johnson or Trump waiting to pop out but you are likely to be very disappointed.
Don't confuse cultural and economic issues.
So people will always believe what their parents believed on economic issues but not cultural...
Put me down as a sceptic.
No people understand their own self interest in economic issues.
A student spending beer money and taking loans for education and a parent with a mortgage, bills to pay etc have very different self interests.
You don't think experiences in people lives affect their views or what they view as in their self interest?
You have never heard people talking about how Labour / the left something about the 70's etc.?
How about the inter war years, WW2 followed by the creation of the NHS and the shift the occurred then?
This a a betting site where percentages and probability are understood and dissected to come up with realistic outcomes, so I'm hoping some clever souls with maybe a medical background can help me make sense of some figures..... After breast cancer surgery, where there is no more evidence of cancer in the body, a woman has an 82% chance of surviving 10 years or more without any further treatment. Radiotherapy adds another 5% to that. Hormone treatment adds another 2% to that. Chemotherapy adds another 5% to that. What do these figures really show? The question is, knowing the risks and side effects of chemotherapy, would you decline or accept it in this instance?
This is a very personal decision for you and your wife and it's not just about statistical analysis.
The choice is between the chance of a longer life on the one hand, and the short-term reduction in quality of life caused by the treatments and side effects on the other.
If you are relatively young and have a partner I think it's best to go for a longer life.
If, like me, you are old and no longer have a partner, it's best to go for quality of life.
But that's my personal view. Other oldies will want to cling onto life, regardless.
If I ever have to make your choice, statistics will hardly come into it (unless it's crystal clear).
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
The reason Merkel has said this is pretty clear. A) Integrity of the SM is important. She has lived behind a wall, separating families, communities and a nation. C) She defers to Ireland on this issue, rightly so. If the EU throws a small member under the bus, what is the point of it.
Maybe the answer is NI needs a border poll, but I bet more of the NI electorate agree with Merkel than Johnson. And if the idea is that that doesn't matter as long as the UK want to keep NI, that just feels like a colonial hangover.
NI isn't a colony it is a part of our country. Remarkable how many fools here seem to think NI is a part of Ireland and not a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
Mr. Thompson, I'd add that it's perverse to decry a border between nations as unacceptable whilst demanding to implement a border within the territory of a sovereign nation state.
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
The reason Merkel has said this is pretty clear. A) Integrity of the SM is important. She has lived behind a wall, separating families, communities and a nation. C) She defers to Ireland on this issue, rightly so. If the EU throws a small member under the bus, what is the point of it.
Maybe the answer is NI needs a border poll, but I bet more of the NI electorate agree with Merkel than Johnson. And if the idea is that that doesn't matter as long as the UK want to keep NI, that just feels like a colonial hangover.
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
Is a journalists job to report?
So long as the source is made clear there is no problem in regurgitating a press release from any source.
This is an example of a Journalist doing the job
Far better than intertwining the views of the publication or journalist and trying to pass them off as something else. That is the job of a commentator.
Sit calmly back in your seats and let our experienced pilot handle things from here...
Very good. I've no doubt that the strongest card the opposition parties have is Boris Johnson. The voters-supporters and opponents alike-think he's an incorrigable liar. This might be being overshadowed in the polls at the moment by more pressing issues but I am 100% convinced that it will weigh very heavily during an election campaign.
Roger, he is a politician.
The reputation of all of them is in the sewer. We know they all lie and many fail to contain the impulse to physically express their pent up randiness with multiple partners of most available sexes.
In a crowded field who will play the liar card?
Jeremy Corbyn, he who was present but not involved has a colourful history of miss speaking and matrimonial partners. At least (as far as we know) Johnson didn't invite his mates home to show them his latest conquest as some allege Mr Corbyn did.
Not fertile ground for our Jeremy
How about Tom Watson, the relentless scourge of Westminster paedophiles campaigner who bullied police into a botched investigation? I can see an issue there.
John MacDonald? He would do it very well, but there are far too many options in the John is a radical wild card pack.
Phil Hammond? Not an issue that transfers easily to a spreadsheet, so we may have a wooden plank of an attack.
Amber Rudd? We know she won't share a taxi, so that is a bit dull.
Jo or Rachel Johnson? They may be better than average
Unknown ex conquests? They will reduce credibility by timing revelations in a election campaign.
The media? It is less effective than it was, and it is very much priced in.
Social Media will indeed go crazy. I'm not sure what happens with Social Media advertising in an election campaign, but it is probably the most useful outlet. However much of Twitter / Facebook will be outrage in an echo chamber.
In the same way many of the Corbyn personal attacks were useless last time, the Johnson ones are likely to be equally ineffective.
I think if you rely on personal attacks you loose the election.
You don't need to rely on personal attacks which as you say is a game for any number of players. I heard an any question the other day and someone said 'Boris' and 'honesty' in the same sentence and the audience spontaniously burst out laughing.
Voters don't believe him and don't trust him. His qualities lie elsewhere. No amount of persuasion will change anyone's view of him so hardly woth wasting a campain convincing people what they know already. The secret is making his dishonesty important. My sense is that in the coming campaign it will turn out to be an absolute show-stopper.
I’m assuming she voted for the PMs agreement with the EU after making those statements to get elected?
Heidi Allen in 2017:
“I was a Remainer, but, the minute we start ignoring the democratic will of the people in this country, we are slipping, very quickly, towards the kind of banana republic I don’t want to live in.
So we have to accept the result.”
Good to know we are still in that exact same moment, and that people should not process information over time to change their response to that same question.
I do like how lots of people ask for evidence based policy making, and then round on politicians the moment they change their minds...
Even if the rest of it is true, the bit at the end is Cummings' bullshit. Many deals with the EU are compatible with the GFA. The problem's only arising because a minority are in power here who want a harder Brexit.
Huge if true; if the EU cannot agree to NI leaving the SM and CU then it cannot agree to it leaving the backstop. I know there's the fig leaf of the arbitration panel but this effectively acts as a veto indefinitely. That's clearly not going to fly in No10 and might even breach the GFA.
I imagine there's a great deal of no 10 framing of the Merkel position here, but it does sound like that's that in terms of negotiation, extension or not.
Mr. Thompson, I'd add that it's perverse to decry a border between nations as unacceptable whilst demanding to implement a border within the territory of a sovereign nation state.
Sit calmly back in your seats and let our experienced pilot handle things from here...
Very good. I've no doubt that the strongest card the opposition parties have is Boris Johnson. The voters-supporters and opponents alike-think he's an incorrigable liar. This might be being overshadowed in the polls at the moment by more pressing issues but I am 100% convinced that it will weigh very heavily during an election campaign.
Roger, he is a politician.
The reputation of all of them is in the sewer. We know they all lie and many fail to contain the impulse to physically express their pent up randiness with multiple partners of most available sexes.
In a crowded field who will play the liar card?
Jeremy Corbyn, he who was present but not involved has a colourful history of miss speaking and matrimonial partners. At least (as far as we know) Johnson didn't invite his mates home to show them his latest conquest as some allege Mr Corbyn did.
Not fertile ground for our Jeremy
How about Tom Watson, the relentless scourge of Westminster paedophiles campaigner who bullied police into a botched investigation? I can see an issue there.
John MacDonald? He would do it very well, but there are far too many options in the John is a radical wild card pack.
Phil Hammond? Not an issue that transfers easily to a spreadsheet, so we may have a wooden plank of an attack.
Social Media will indeed go crazy. I'm not sure what happens with Social Media advertising in an election campaign, but it is probably the most useful outlet. However much of Twitter / Facebook will be outrage in an echo chamber.
In the same way many of the Corbyn personal attacks were useless last time, the Johnson ones are likely to be equally ineffective.
I think if you rely on personal attacks you loose the election.
You don't need to rely on personal attacks which as you say is a game for any number of players. I heard an any question the other day and someone said 'Boris' and 'honesty' in the same sentence and the audience spontaniously burst out laughing.
Voters don't believe him and don't trust him. His qualities lie elsewhere. No amount of persuasion will change anyone's view of him so hardly woth wasting a campain convincing people what they know already. The secret is making his dishonesty important. My sense is that in the coming campaign it will turn out to be an absolute show-stopper.
And which of leaders of the major parties engender greater trust?
I don't think it is a slam dunk strategy to win the next election.
Huge if true; if the EU cannot agree to NI leaving the SM and CU then it cannot agree to it leaving the backstop. I know there's the fig leaf of the arbitration panel but this effectively acts as a veto indefinitely. That's clearly not going to fly in No10 and might even breach the GFA.
I imagine there's a great deal of no 10 framing of the Merkel position here, but it does sound like that's that in terms of negotiation, extension or not.
That's that until Johnson is replaced with someone who doesn't believe in unicorns.
Even if the rest of it is true, the bit at the end is Cummings' bullshit. Many deals with the EU are compatible with the GFA. The problem's only arising because a minority are in power here who want a harder Brexit.
Looks like the only way we leave the EU is a Johnson GE victory with a decent majority.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
????
What country are you in?
We are actually very progressive, we recently let women start driving cars and everything...
I was being sarcastic about things not changing as here in the UK (where I live) things clearly have changed in regards to homosexuality over the decades. Also for clarity in the bit above I was jokingly pretending to live in Saudi Arabia, which I don't.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
Yes, that contradiction had passed me by. Fintan O'Toole really is one of the better writers around.
The contempt for Ireland and Irish concerns is one of the most striking and depressing characteristics of many Brexiteers.
The problem is that Nationalism (from either the Left or Right) has a uncanny knack of resulting in violence.
A civilised country would be above this and could live in harmony with a neighbour despite religious differences and despite living in different Nations.
Well indeed
I find it exceedingly sad that having in recent years put the Ireland - UK relationship on a decent footing (HMQ's visit in 2014 was very moving) we are now damaging what so many people worked so hard to achieve.
This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.
Yes, that contradiction had passed me by. Fintan O'Toole really is one of the better writers around.
The contempt for Ireland and Irish concerns is one of the most striking and depressing characteristics of many Brexiteers.
Irish concerns are not equal to Uk concerns - if you are the Uk government - quite rightly.
They most certainly are if you are genuinely seeking to reach an agreement with them.
Disagree
They are important and valid, but an accommodation requires movement on both sides.
I have my doubts about this reported “readout” from the Merkel call this morning, but if true then no deal is possible so leaving without a deal is all that is left
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
The reason Merkel has said this is pretty clear. A) Integrity of the SM is important. She has lived behind a wall, separating families, communities and a nation. C) She defers to Ireland on this issue, rightly so. If the EU throws a small member under the bus, what is the point of it.
Maybe the answer is NI needs a border poll, but I bet more of the NI electorate agree with Merkel than Johnson. And if the idea is that that doesn't matter as long as the UK want to keep NI, that just feels like a colonial hangover.
This is the heart of the matter, isn't it. GB can leave the EU but the delicate status quo on the island of Ireland means that NI cannot. The problem ought not be insoluble given that the people of NI voted very clearly NOT to leave the EU.
If (i) they can't leave and (ii) they don't want to leave, one would have thought that them leaving would be everybody's plan Z.
I’m assuming she voted for the PMs agreement with the EU after making those statements to get elected?
Heidi Allen in 2017:
“I was a Remainer, but, the minute we start ignoring the democratic will of the people in this country, we are slipping, very quickly, towards the kind of banana republic I don’t want to live in.
So we have to accept the result.”
Good to know we are still in that exact same moment, and that people should not process information over time to change their response to that same question.
I do like how lots of people ask for evidence based policy making, and then round on politicians the moment they change their minds...
As opposed to the policy-based evidence-making that most of our politicians engage in, do you mean?
I was wondering how No 10 was going to get round the whole letter writing shebang, essentially removing ANY deal from the table so that there simply isn't anything to put (remain winning vs May's deal would medium-long term backfire for remain I think) to a referendum looks like a worthwhile gambit electorally. I still think resigning the Gov't would have been superior as a tactic but that might not still have got Johnson out of his strict legal duty.
PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people! Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!
Huge if true; if the EU cannot agree to NI leaving the SM and CU then it cannot agree to it leaving the backstop. I know there's the fig leaf of the arbitration panel but this effectively acts as a veto indefinitely. That's clearly not going to fly in No10 and might even breach the GFA.
I imagine there's a great deal of no 10 framing of the Merkel position here, but it does sound like that's that in terms of negotiation, extension or not.
That's that until Johnson is replaced with someone who doesn't believe in unicorns.
Whoever the next PM is will be bound by the bit in the GFA that says
" the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and, accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that *it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people*"
Losing QS is not, in theory a matter of confidence under FTPA but given a government hasn't lost a QS in 95 years it would in effect be a confidence matter.
I would imagine after losing the QS a VONC would be layed by Corbyn immediatly which would also be lost and then we'd be on our way to a general election for end of November or early December as confirmed by Shami at the weekend.
Even if the rest of it is true, the bit at the end is Cummings' bullshit. Many deals with the EU are compatible with the GFA. The problem's only arising because a minority are in power here who want a harder Brexit.
Looks like the only way we leave the EU is a Johnson GE victory with a decent majority.
The situation has become quite tragic. May made the mistake of making Brexit a Tory project but then couldn't get her MPs to back her WA. Looking back, that was probably Brexit's only chance. For a long time Corbyn was willing to implement the referendum result (he probably still is) but his party has more or less pushed him into having another referendum. So, Brexit is effectively dead. I suppose there's a possibility of Boris winning a GE with a majority and enforcing a No-Deal exit, but don't hold your breath. I don't think his heart is in it.
Whilst not politically normal, "this time it's different "! and it's in the Gov'ts interests now to look as politically weak (But very unified) in the Commons as possible.
EU about to learn, again, that it is a really stupid idea to tell the British people what they arent allowed to do
The topic was whether NI leaves the SM/CU. The people of NI do not want to leave the SM/CU.
Perhaps the British government are about to learn - again - that they ought not be telling the people of NI what they can and can't do?
The people of NI are part of the UK unless and until they vote to change that status. They are bound by the decision of the UK. Norwich voted remain but it will leave. NI is no different. They are citizens of our nation, not colonials, and take part in collective decision making.
That makes sense, I suppose it is why homosexuality is still illegal and we don't have gay marriage in this country, people will always believe what their parents believed...
????
What country are you in?
We are actually very progressive, we recently let women start driving cars and everything...
I was being sarcastic about things not changing as here in the UK (where I live) things clearly have changed in regards to homosexuality over the decades. Also for clarity in the bit above I was jokingly pretending to live in Saudi Arabia, which I don't.
I don't think it was designed specifically for ultra partisans to shout at each other (let's face it they'll do that anyway) but this is pretty much where I have always been on the 'GNU' idea. I couldn't see Corbyn getting support and the ideas about getting a government where you exclude the left but rely on almost all the Labour votes to make it work is fantasy.
The situation has become quite tragic. May made the mistake of making Brexit a Tory project but then couldn't get her MPs to back her WA. Looking back, that was probably Brexit's only chance. For a long time Corbyn was willing to implement the referendum result (he probably still is) but his party has more or less pushed him into having another referendum. So, Brexit is effectively dead. I suppose there's a possibility of Boris winning a GE with a majority and enforcing a No-Deal exit, but don't hold your breath. I don't think his heart is in it.
I will not mourn Brexit if it is actually dead, but no matter what the outcome, Brexit has damaged the UK for years to come.
Losing QS is not, in theory a matter of confidence under FTPA but given a government hasn't lost a QS in 95 years it would in effect be a confidence matter.
I would imagine after losing the QS a VONC would be layed by Corbyn immediatly which would also be lost and then we'd be on our way to a general election for end of November or early December as confirmed by Shami at the weekend.
PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people! Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!
Leaving the EU is a question for the UK electorate
Reunification with the RoI is a question for the NI electorate
Whilst not politically normal, "this time it's different "! and it's in the Gov'ts interests now to look as politically weak (But very unified) in the Commons as possible.
How is the one-liner 'My Government feels that this parliament has runs it course and wishes to call a General Election as soon as practicable' going to get voted down?
The people of NI are part of the UK unless and until they vote to change that status. They are bound by the decision of the UK. Norwich voted remain but it will leave. NI is no different. They are citizens of our nation, not colonials, and take part in collective decision making.
They are bound, but reluctantly so.
Your previous comment did not reflect this important point.
Comments
Certainly their political centre - sorry center - of gravity is to the right of ours.
Although if we end up with a Johnson landslide and they ditch Trump for Warren, this may no longer be true.
Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1181498839716503553?s=21
Put me down as a sceptic.
Heidi Allen and pals gambled on rejecting every form of leaving the EU resulting in us remaining... maybe it will, or maybe it will be what led to no deal.
At least she was honest about not wanting a second referendum... straight revoke!
It does of course depend on her general health as Chemotherapy is obviously extremly tough on the body so if she's got underlying medical problems that does create complications but assuming she's otherwise fit and well I'd throw the kitchen sink at the litle ******
Hope all goes well and please keep us informed with her progress.
Jo Maugham is a very silly boy, but he does like his own press
A student spending beer money and taking loans for education and a parent with a mortgage, bills to pay etc have very different self interests.
There appears to be several different types of breast cancer linked to different DNA modifications.
Each has a different prognosis over time and different treatment recommended.
As such applying generalised statistics may not be appropriate.
If you are lucky you could get the tumour DNA tested to help determine the appropriate treatment. But I fear that this may be too new to be accepted in the NHS?
One might just as well say 'Norway+ now then', which would fulfil the referendum mandate at far less cost to the nation.
What stops me being more Left than I am is my strong hunch that the private profit motive is indispensable to reconciling strong economic growth with individual liberty.
However, climate change, high tech, AI, the rise of the East, globalized business models and tax 'planning', exploitation of the poor and of weak and underdeveloped regions, if these sorts of challenges are left primarily to the 'market' this, for me, is tantamount to not facing them at all.
At the very least you'll be waiting for a Tory majority in a GE (in which case, you're probably not far off)
If not, the options will be EURef2, and/or a Lab deal which bins off May's red lines and puts the whole UK in a close-enough relationship to overcome the border issues. It may be that a deal is "never possible" for the current No 10 regime, but I think there are several possible after a GE (if Leavers still want them).
Another woman I spoke to recently reckons she is about 80% as fit as before. Nonetheless, all three are alive and kicking and living life with their friends and family. Two of those three are very active women involved in outdoor sports.
Good luck with everything
A civilised country would be above this and could live in harmony with a neighbour despite religious differences and despite living in different Nations.
I do like how lots of people ask for evidence based policy making, and then round on politicians the moment they change their minds...
When you are talking about "Norway" do you mean the actual situation for Norway (Hard customs border, inside single market) or an idealised BINO option whereby we remain inside both the customs union & single market ?
I've said directly to you only a few days ago and previously that I don't think there are the numbers for Corbyn or anyone else.
Corbyn can probably get closest, aside from Johnson or another Tory pro no dealer which is what we are talking about replacing, so the Lib Dems could be criticised for ruling out the most viable option.
The truth is the Lib Dems and other assorted indies have decided that no deal is preferable either for the country or their political interests to letting Corbyn request the extension and call an election*
*The conversation has generally been about if Boris won't follow through on the Benn act and heads to no deal. The idea of running an alternative government whether Corbyn led or not without an election anytime soon is unrealistic IMO.
To prefer no deal to Corbyn is a perfectly acceptable political position, I disagree but that's democracy, but given these people have talked about what a disaster no deal would be it is also perfectly acceptable to criticise them for that choice.
The strong suspicion among people sceptical about their motives would be that either they don't believe no deal will be as bad as they claimed or that they are happy to put the country through that if it is in their political interests.
Right now you can ignore all my reasonable points and pretend I talked about killing my enemies or some other ludicrous rubbish your fevered imagination comes up with you nutter.
The reason Merkel has said this is pretty clear. A) Integrity of the SM is important.
Maybe the answer is NI needs a border poll, but I bet more of the NI electorate agree with Merkel than Johnson. And if the idea is that that doesn't matter as long as the UK want to keep NI, that just feels like a colonial hangover.
You have never heard people talking about how Labour / the left something about the 70's etc.?
How about the inter war years, WW2 followed by the creation of the NHS and the shift the occurred then?
Thatcher?
The choice is between the chance of a longer life on the one hand, and the short-term reduction in quality of life caused by the treatments and side effects on the other.
If you are relatively young and have a partner I think it's best to go for a longer life.
If, like me, you are old and no longer have a partner, it's best to go for quality of life.
But that's my personal view. Other oldies will want to cling onto life, regardless.
If I ever have to make your choice, statistics will hardly come into it (unless it's crystal clear).
What country are you in?
Journalists need to stop quoting anonymous No 10 sources uncritically.
Is a journalists job to report?
So long as the source is made clear there is no problem in regurgitating a press release from any source.
This is an example of a Journalist doing the job
Far better than intertwining the views of the publication or journalist and trying to pass them off as something else. That is the job of a commentator.
Voters don't believe him and don't trust him. His qualities lie elsewhere. No amount of persuasion will change anyone's view of him so hardly woth wasting a campain convincing people what they know already. The secret is making his dishonesty important. My sense is that in the coming campaign it will turn out to be an absolute show-stopper.
I imagine there's a great deal of no 10 framing of the Merkel position here, but it does sound like that's that in terms of negotiation, extension or not.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/08/eight-hurt-as-stolen-truck-crashes-into-cars-in-germany
I don't think it is a slam dunk strategy to win the next election.
I was being sarcastic about things not changing as here in the UK (where I live) things clearly have changed in regards to homosexuality over the decades. Also for clarity in the bit above I was jokingly pretending to live in Saudi Arabia, which I don't.
I find it exceedingly sad that having in recent years put the Ireland - UK relationship on a decent footing (HMQ's visit in 2014 was very moving) we are now damaging what so many people worked so hard to achieve.
They are important and valid, but an accommodation requires movement on both sides.
I have my doubts about this reported “readout” from the Merkel call this morning, but if true then no deal is possible so leaving without a deal is all that is left
If (i) they can't leave and (ii) they don't want to leave, one would have thought that them leaving would be everybody's plan Z.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1181504433521336320
I still think resigning the Gov't would have been superior as a tactic but that might not still have got Johnson out of his strict legal duty.
https://southpark.cc.com/full-episodes/s23e02-band-in-china
Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!
It seems these days, the first 2-3 episodes at start of a season / after the mid season break are good, the rest not so much.
" the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to
maintain the Union and, accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part
of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that *it
would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save
with the consent of a majority of its people*"
My emphasis, apols for quote formatting.
I would imagine after losing the QS a VONC would be layed by Corbyn immediatly which would also be lost and then we'd be on our way to a general election for end of November or early December as confirmed by Shami at the weekend.
Perhaps the British government are about to learn - again - that they ought not be telling the people of NI what they can and can't do?
I don't think it was designed specifically for ultra partisans to shout at each other (let's face it they'll do that anyway) but this is pretty much where I have always been on the 'GNU' idea. I couldn't see Corbyn getting support and the ideas about getting a government where you exclude the left but rely on almost all the Labour votes to make it work is fantasy.
I don’t see how a government losing the vote on the Queen’s Speech doesn’t resign immediately, even if LotO won’t lay a formal vote of confidence.
Either the German want No Deal, or they want an actual war. It is one or the other.
Reunification with the RoI is a question for the NI electorate
It’s really not that difficult a concept to grasp
I am shocked I tell you.
Merkel the great unifier
I'm sure you have never don it, have you Nicola?
Your previous comment did not reflect this important point.