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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliamen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011
We are used to American presidents dominating their country’s politics. “Commander in chief” can be understood in more than one way, given how the role has developed. It was not always thus. For most of the nineteenth century, American presidents were chiefly distinctive for their lack of distinction. In the sixty year period between Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt, only Abraham Lincoln really stood out for his achievements. Taken as a group, they were strikingly anonymous.
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It's clear that this would be tactically a daft thing for the opposition parties to do right now, but it's also clear that this is literally the only sane way forward for the country.
55 to 33 Lab to Tory last time and 61% leave.
If Boris has the Brexit mojo behind him in any election I expect it to fall.
I gather that a government can put down a 'one liner' bill which calls for a GE on a named date 'notwithstanding the FTPA' and that this requires just a simple majority to pass.
So why does this not make the FTPA rather meaningless?
The one wearing the red rosette wins
The question is, has BJ (or cummings) found a way around the Benn act or are they actually bluffing?
Labour got 55% last time in the seat you refer to and i think it easy to see a situation where they loose 10% to the BXP and 5% to the LDs which will make it close.. I really can't see any scenario though where it will flip con
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/russia-post-race-analysis-2019.html
My guess is that on 20th, the PM gives his reasons for not sending the letter - something like the associated spending with remaining in the EU has not been budgeted for - then challenges someone to judicially review that decision. That gives only 10 days for the entire JR process, which will obviously go right up to the SC again. On 28th or 29th, the legal process is exhausted and, if not in favour of the government, they resign rather than send the letter.
I had wholly overlooked the fact that the opposition is now doing to Boris what Boris did to May. That's delicious.
Many democracies manage fixed term without difficulty. I'm sure the UK government can cope.
I hope they do it. The opposition need to focus their minds sharply on replacing this Profumo/Charles I prime minister.
Don't see it lasting much longer.
We are witnessing the painful but necessary rebirth of parliament as the main force in this country. The FTPA hands the whip hand to parliament.
I just shifts the power of political self-interest to the opposition, with a side dish of ineffectual government.
I think No Deal is good betting value. No one is in control of events and that is the default.
I think the next majority government will get rid of it.
I've little doubt Boris will be returning with a majoirty in a general election... The only snag is actually having an election in the first place.
Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto.
If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it?
There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging.
I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.
The advice Mr Meeks gives is
(a) Construct a stable majority. I think at the moment that is like advising someone to build a firm and reliable escalator to the moon. Not only Boris can't do it. No-one can.
(b) Don't try to do too much. Good advice generally, but not at this moment in which we have no choice but to remain momentously or leave momentously. Not doing too much is not an option.
(c) Let someone else do the hard work. Slightly agree; I wonder if Boris's best move would be to engineer a moment when he should resign and leave HM the Queen's advisers to work out what to do next.
The PM resigns and the 14 days begins. No resolution = general election. Sorted.
It is messy and frankly ludicrous though.
I can see the next majority government (blue or red) binning it off.
I think we'll only 'know' afterwards.
Theresa May sought to impose her deal on Parliament. It resisted. Boris Johnson has sought to impose no deal on Parliament. It is resisting.
Other options have barely been explored yet.
If a majority of the House of Commons wants an early election, it will happen. If it does not, or not yet, then the MPs who do not will need to make the compromises necessary to move forward. That now looks set to happen.
Personally I would love to see the back of them.
The Lords had tried to amend it to need to be reviewed every parliament and this was the compromise
something along the lines of
“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election on date XXXX.”
The essential must be that a PM may not call a general election solely on their own behalf.
I'd be interested to know what the seat model looks like, though. That's slightly more questionable.
If a majority government wants to scrap the FTPA then it will happen.
I've placed a few small bets on a Con majority but that's more because I think the Lib / Lab vote will split roughly down the middle while the Con / Brex axis will fall more heavily to the Cons with BXP getting somewhere around UKIP's 2015 level of support or less, allowing the Cons to come through the middle.
But this is more luck of the circumstances than a belief in Boris being a brilliant campaigner. In fact he looks increasingly like a gaffe prone liability. I think "slim majority" is the absolute best the Tories can hope for right now. That's the Tories ceiling, I don't know where the floor is if, say, a significant number of Con voters go Lib Dem.
A good example was how Vote Leave's internal polling was able to reach "Never Voter's" and had a good idea what they were going to do in the referendum and so knew the refernedum was a lot closer than standard polling suggested.
Personally I support the overall concept of the FPTA. I think it is seriously flawed in that it makes no provision for loss of supply or failure to pass a Queen’s speech, which convention formerly treated as equivalent to a VONC. I think it would also be reasonable for a PM to be empowered to designate any given Commons vote as constituting a matter of confidence within the terms of the FPTA. Possibly also it should be enacted that losing any such form of VONC requires the ministry to resign, but that the Crown on advice has the discretion to ask the outgoing PM to act as a caretaker if there seems to be no prospect of an alternative ministry being formed within the two-week period.
A couple of weeks ago someone - I forget who unfortunately - suggested amending the FTPA so that a government could designate other votes as confidence votes. This then forces the issue of constructing another government when one has lost the confidence of the House.
It is also worth remembering that the FTPA would not be causing us so many issues if the Opposition had a leader who was not so repellent. An Opposition leader who was able to attract defections from the government party (or even not lose so many of his own MPs) would be much more able to put a zombie government out of its misery in this sort of situation.
To an extent, but the bigger fault is with the executives.