Good work on the tip, but I think it'll come out as a loser in the end. I can't see past installing someone who was elected as a Conservative. Serious questions about legitimacy will plague any other PM. That doesn't mean it won't happen, of course, but it'll be weighed up by MPs before they choose, if it even comes to installing a new PM.
You gotta feel for Ken. How many times has he come close to being PM?
He's an affable guy but he has done a great deal of damage to his own party over the years.
As a ringleader of the plot to remove Thatcher he was a major cause of the rupture in the party that still hasn't fully healed today. She should have been left to face the electorate in 92 which would have been a far better outcome for the party.
This weekend's YouGov and Opinium suggest all of the week's excitement at the Supreme Court and in Parliament has had little effect on Voting Intention.
Sure, we have no idea whether YouGov/Opinium or ComRes/Survation are more accurate - but it does appear that the position is pretty stable over the week.
I think the reason is that in spite of all the drama, nothing has really happened to change anybody's opinion.
Yes, I think that's right. The big question, only addressed by one poll so far a few weeks ago, is whether tactical voting will feature heavily. If it doesn't feature at all, we'll get a 1983-style Tory landslide. If it features heavily on the Lab/Lib side, Johnson may be out. As with most things, the answer is no doubt in between, but where?
Whilst Johnson doubles down on the leave vote to squeeze TBP the more disgusted are those that see things differently. It should drive a larger element of tactical voting than normal but Corbyn is the road block to making it two way. If the labour internal polling is correct than the tactical shift is significant already. Expect labour to focus their guns on Swinson rather than Johnson on social media.
I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.
ThSNIPut it appearing thuggish/racist. even then it's happened (labour MPs commenting on england flags anyone)
It's not the football thugs that's the problem. It's the unjustified stupidity of it all. England doesn't suffer from being part of a larger entity where is fails to get its way. It forms the vast majority of the UK, and in terms of the EU, the general centre-right choices of England fit quite nicely with the centrist way Europe has evolved. Certainly, English Conservatives have been instrumental in shaping the single market. England more often than not gets its way*.
Contrast that with Scotland. How much of your lifetime has been spent with a Tory PM in Downing Street? And in how many elections in the same period of time has Scotland voted Tory? There's a worrying gulf there, and I'm surprised it doesn't trouble more people in Scotland than it evidently does.
And yet, for all that, which country has decided to turn the table over? It baffles me, both that Scotland isn't more nationalistic and that England isn't less.
*nobody even think of quoting those "x% of EU laws were opposed by us!" from the referendum. They were all lies.
England is hardly nationalistic at all. It's one of the most multi-cultural places on earth. The BNP vote is tiny. cf. Scotland with a 95pc white population and a 40pc nationalist vote
Multi-culturalism isn't the opposite of nationalism. Just look at the US.
It's a leading indicator - The US is a special case because it uses the world's reserve currency
What on earth are you on about?
What? So you're allowed to write drivel but I can't? Two can play at that game.
I really meant that question. I do not understand what reserve currency has to do with anything. You might find what I write drivel, I don't much care, but at least I do try to explain what I mean. That is, someone with a reading age of ten ought to be able to understand what I'm saying and either agree or, more likely, fling heavy objects at me because my opinions are so contemptible. But I just didn't understand your cryptic one-line teleportation into economics.
I'm watching Super Sunday now. I hope that's not too cryptic for you. Have a good one.
Contrast that with Scotland. How much of your lifetime has been spent with a Tory PM in Downing Street? And in how many elections in the same period of time has Scotland voted Tory? There's a worrying gulf there, and I'm surprised it doesn't trouble more people in Scotland than it evidently does.
Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery* Lord Salisbury Arthur Balfour* Henry Campbell-Bannerman* Herbert Asquith David Lloyd George (only Welshman) A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian) Stanley Baldwin* Ramsay Macdonald* Neville Chamberlain Winston Churchill Clement Attlee Anthony Eden Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish) Earl of Home* Harold Wilson Edward Heath James Callaghan Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair* Gordon Brown* David Cameron* Theresa May Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
There are several reasons for that - one is that the Scottish education system has always been rather better than the English one at least until recent years under devolution. Another is that the Scots who go into politics have tended to face more barriers and thus been both more dedicated and just better than their English peers. But it's also worth remembering how highly the English used to regard the Scots. When Jimmy Perry was writing Dad's Army he noted the very high proportion of Scottish doctors and teachers in seaside towns in the Second World War, whom he noted were venerated by the English who saw them as much cleverer (see again about that much better education system). Scots always stood in English eyes for unflappable solidity, calm, common sense and hard work, and therefore they were quite happy to vote for them. The Irish and Welsh with their reputation for bombast and hyperactivity, not so much.
That seems to have gone, to be replaced by mutual suspicion, distrust and shrillness. Speaking as somebody who isn't English or Scottish that seeems rather sad.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Funnily enough I asked myself that question as I was writing the post.
I don't know is the honest answer; I have no ties to Wales but for some reason I feel a far greater affection for the Welsh than I do for the Irish or Scots.
Living in Peterhead for 6 years may explain my dislike for the latter though.
I should clarify that a great number of people in England aren't necessarily English nationalists. Many are British nationalists.
15 to 20 years ago that was probably true and I would have agreed with it. the rise of the SNP and the indyref has changed that. The concept of Britishness for a long time was equivalent to Englishness but it's not true anymore. Britishness as an identity is dying out. The younger generation is more likely to consider themselves European than British
I agree with you that Britishness is in a squeeze between English/Scottish/Welshness and Europeanness. A few years ago I would have unthinkingly identified as British, but that's not nationalism, that's just identity. It's only when you apply your identity to your beliefs in the governing unit in which you'd like to live that it becomes nationalism. So people can be pro-Europe and identify very strongly as British and that's not nationalism. Conversely you can "feel" European but decide on balance that Britain should be out of the EU. That /is/ nationalism.
Indeed, but without an identity binding the country together the UK will break up over the longer term.
Is that a bad thing?
No, we are clearly going in different directions
Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.
I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.
Funnily enough I asked myself that question as I was writing the post.
I don't know is the honest answer; I have no ties to Wales but for some reason I feel a far greater affection for the Welsh than I do for the Irish or Scots.
There's no need to explain it, we're just naturally awesome and loveable.
The parties who received fewest votes at the GE providing a PM who doesn't lead any of them is the perfect sequel to a referendum where the winners aren't allowed to implement the result
European aerospace giant Airbus has been hit by a series of attacks by hackers targeting its suppliers in search of commercial secrets, sources told AFP, adding they suspected a Chinese link.
AFP's sources said the hackers targeted British engine-maker Rolls-Royce and the French technology consultancy and supplier Expleo, as well as two other French contractors working for Airbus that AFP was unable to identify.
Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery* Lord Salisbury Arthur Balfour* Henry Campbell-Bannerman* Herbert Asquith David Lloyd George (only Welshman) A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian) Stanley Baldwin* Ramsay Macdonald* Neville Chamberlain Winston Churchill Clement Attlee Anthony Eden Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish) Earl of Home* Harold Wilson Edward Heath James Callaghan Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair* Gordon Brown* David Cameron* Theresa May Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
There are several reasons for that - one is that the Scottish education system has always been rather better than the English one at least until recent years under devolution. Another is that the Scots who go into politics have tended to face more barriers and thus been both more dedicated and just better than their English peers. But it's also worth remembering how highly the English used to regard the Scots. When Jimmy Perry was writing Dad's Army he noted the very high proportion of Scottish doctors and teachers in seaside towns in the Second World War, whom he noted were venerated by the English who saw them as much cleverer (see again about that much better education system). Scots always stood in English eyes for unflappable solidity, calm, common sense and hard work, and therefore they were quite happy to vote for them. The Irish and Welsh with their reputation for bombast and hyperactivity, not so much.
That seems to have gone, to be replaced by mutual suspicion, distrust and shrillness. Speaking as somebody who isn't English or Scottish that seeems rather sad.
Just out of interest are you counting Cameron as English. You have a * next to his name, so you're clearly counting him as part of the 10 Scots, which I think is an almighty stretch. It would be especially so if you are counting him as Scots-only.
From memory too, Blair count count equally one way or another.
Not that I think there's much merit in this exercise. It's interesting, but it doesn't move the conversation on very much.
The parties who received fewest votes at the GE providing a PM who doesn't lead any of them is the perfect sequel to a referendum where the winners aren't allowed to implement the result
Actually, a coalition of the type envisaged would have collected well over 50% of the votes at the last election between them.
Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery* Lord Salisbury Arthur Balfour* Henry Campbell-Bannerman* Herbert Asquith David Lloyd George (only Welshman) A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian) Stanley Baldwin* Ramsay Macdonald* Neville Chamberlain Winston Churchill Clement Attlee Anthony Eden Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish) Earl of Home* Harold Wilson Edward Heath James Callaghan Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair* Gordon Brown* David Cameron* Theresa May Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
There are several reasons for that - one is that the Scottish education system has always been rather better than the English one at least until recent years under devolution. Another is that the Scots who go into politics have tended to face more barriers and thus been both more dedicated and just better than their English peers. But it's also worth remembering how highly the English used to regard the Scots. When Jimmy Perry was writing Dad's Army he noted the very high proportion of Scottish doctors and teachers in seaside towns in the Second World War, whom he noted were venerated by the English who saw them as much cleverer (see again about that much better education system). Scots always stood in English eyes for unflappable solidity, calm, common sense and hard work, and therefore they were quite happy to vote for them. The Irish and Welsh with their reputation for bombast and hyperactivity, not so much.
That seems to have gone, to be replaced by mutual suspicion, distrust and shrillness. Speaking as somebody who isn't English or Scottish that seeems rather sad.
Just out of interest are you counting Cameron as English. You have a * next to his name, so you're clearly counting him as part of the 10 Scots, which I think is an almighty stretch. It would be especially so if you are counting him as Scots-only.
From memory too, Blair count count equally one way or another.
Not that I think there's much merit in this exercise. It's interesting, but it doesn't move the conversation on very much.
His father was Scottish. As was Stanley Baldwin's mother.
The parties who received fewest votes at the GE providing a PM who doesn't lead any of them is the perfect sequel to a referendum where the winners aren't allowed to implement the result
If only the ERG had voted to implement the result.
European aerospace giant Airbus has been hit by a series of attacks by hackers targeting its suppliers in search of commercial secrets, sources told AFP, adding they suspected a Chinese link.
AFP's sources said the hackers targeted British engine-maker Rolls-Royce and the French technology consultancy and supplier Expleo, as well as two other French contractors working for Airbus that AFP was unable to identify.
Will I be accused of tastelessness if I suggest they might actually be Boeing, wondering how you make planes that y'know, actually fly?
I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.
If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.
His father was Scottish. As was Stanley Baldwin's mother.
Yes, but the nationality of your parent doesn't make it your own. I was born in a different country to my father. If I'm asked my where I'm from, I tend to give the answer for myself, not for my father. I wouldn't like to override what Cameron himself thinks, and I genuinely have no idea what he says about himself. But I find it odd that someone would say he's Scottish and not English.
Mr. Spudgfsh, my cunning strategy of using consoles with a 20 year gap between Civ releases (not counting Revolution) worked pretty well.
Also, Leeds wasting millions of pounds on tram proposals which got early green lights then got canned (repeatedly by various governments) whilst there's always cash for improvements in London didn't sit well.
I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.
If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.
If she gets the gig, then nominting Corbyn will look like the ultimate example of playing the long game.....
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
His father was Scottish. As was Stanley Baldwin's mother.
Yes, but the nationality of your parent doesn't make it your own. I was born in a different country to my father. If I'm asked my where I'm from, I tend to give the answer for myself, not for my father. I wouldn't like to override what Cameron himself thinks, and I genuinely have no idea what he says about himself. But I find it odd that someone would say he's Scottish and not English.
Well, I said 'with close Scottish connections.' And if we adhere to the strict letter of your criteria, that would make Lloyd George English.
To widen the point, name me Prime Ministers other than Lloyd George or Bonar Law who had Welsh or Irish parents. Offhand I can't think of any at all since Wellington, although that's hardly conclusive. But he mere fact we're discussing the point does show the huge influence the Scottish diaspora has had on Britain, far exceeding the proportionate strength of its population.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Sado-masochists. They would be the only ones enjoying it.
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Angela Rayner is better than both of them.
Given her lack of command of her brief - which outside some quite good ideas about lifelong learning mostly consists of wildly inaccurate platitudes - that says an awful lot about the poor quality of Labour's front bench.
Also, Leeds wasting millions of pounds on tram proposals which got early green lights then got canned (repeatedly by various governments) whilst there's always cash for improvements in London didn't sit well.
They always seem to have money to put in another crossrail but can't electrify the midland mainline. Norfolk had a network of rail lines until Beeching but is now mostly cut off and nothing has been done to replace it.
An election right now is clearly in the national interest.
But one which Boris Johnson wins on a tacky exploitative ticket is equally clearly not.
This is the conundrum that I am wrestling with.
🙏
Help !!
An election could produce exactly the same hung parliament as we currently have an achieve nothing. I hate the idea of referenda, but I think the right way forward would be 3 or 4 options put to the electorate on a transferable vote system. This could be done on the same day as a GE to attempt to increase turnout. The result should be binding on the government that wins to deliver it.
three questions 1) remain in the EU Yes/No 2) If 1 is NO, Remain in the Customs Union 3) If 1 is NO, Remain aligned to the single market
all binding
It would be amusing if the LibDems won and had to implemet Leaving EU, Customs Union and Single Market.
Clear re election win for Kurz and the Austrian centre right OVP then, he can now choose between the Far right FPO or the liberal Neos and Green party as his coalition partners
Mr. Spudfsh, there was a line around here that was meant to be electrified. The money's vanished, although there is £2bn to try and bugger up Stonehenge.
The misère strategy – in which you win by losing – is now the game being played in Parliament. When the combined opposition wins a vonc on the PM he wins and they lose by replacing him with Margaret Becket who begs for an extension. Because if the EU agrees to extend the opposition parties feel the opprobrium of the hoi polloi in the ensuing election. And if the EU declines to extend then again the opposition parties lose the ensuing election as they will have shown themselves to have brought shame on the country with their abject and futile begging. In the former case we eventually exit with either a backstop-free WA or a clean exit, and in the latter case we exit on 31st October without a deal. Either way, Prometheus is unbound. In weakness is strength.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.
If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.
What if she then does not want to be moved out ? Would a coalition of Tories and Left Labour turf her out ?
The misère strategy – in which you win by losing – is now the game being played in Parliament. When the combined opposition wins a vonc on the PM he wins and they lose by replacing him with Margaret Becket who begs for an extension. Because if the EU agrees to extend the opposition parties feel the opprobrium of the hoi polloi in the ensuing election. And if the EU declines to extend then again the opposition parties lose the ensuing election as they will have shown themselves to have brought shame on the country with their abject and futile begging. In the former case we eventually exit with either a backstop-free WA or a clean exit, and in the latter case we exit on 31st October without a deal. Either way, Prometheus is unbound. In weakness is strength.
If the opposition is forced to go to Europe for an extension - they will need to insist on enough time for a second referendum to be held.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Clear re election win for Kurz and the Austrian centre right OVP then, he can now choose between the Far right FPO or the liberal Neos and Green party as his coalition partners
The FPÖ had already (tacitly) rejected the idea of a new ÖVP/FPÖ coaltion. Vilimsky has confirmed they will go into opposition. Kurz will try to go for the NEO/Green option.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
Clear re election win for Kurz and the Austrian centre right OVP then, he can now choose between the Far right FPO or the liberal Neos and Green party as his coalition partners
The FPÖ had already (tacitly) rejected the idea of a new ÖVP/FPÖ coaltion. Vilimsky has confirmed they will go into opposition. Kurz will try to go for the NEO/Green option.
The misère strategy – in which you win by losing – is now the game being played in Parliament. When the combined opposition wins a vonc on the PM he wins and they lose by replacing him with Margaret Becket who begs for an extension. Because if the EU agrees to extend the opposition parties feel the opprobrium of the hoi polloi in the ensuing election. And if the EU declines to extend then again the opposition parties lose the ensuing election as they will have shown themselves to have brought shame on the country with their abject and futile begging. In the former case we eventually exit with either a backstop-free WA or a clean exit, and in the latter case we exit on 31st October without a deal. Either way, Prometheus is unbound. In weakness is strength.
If the opposition is forced to go to Europe for an extension - they will need to insist on enough time for a second referendum to be held.
....and then hang around long enough to deliver it.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.
If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.
She was good as acting Labour leader in 1994, she was unlucky to have Tony Blair as an opponent for the leadership contest following John Smiths early demise. I prefer Ken Clarke as acting PM but she would be alright!
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
Couple of other interesting things about Beckett: whilst she hasn't been PM before (obvs) she has held a great office of state, foreign secretary, and also did a ten-week stint as caretaker leader of the Labour Party in 1994. So she has experience. She is also Chair of the National Security Strategy (Joint Committee) so she will reassure on national security and defence issues too, where Corbyn is weak.
She also wrote the report into why Labour lost GE2015 which majored on how the Labour Party came across as soft on welfare and immigration, which hurt them with swing voters, and was welcomed by centrist Labour politicians as it recognised why the voters won by Blair had gone to Cameron.
Something for everyone there, so I could very much see it be her.
It will be between Emily and Angela. Though we cannot rule out Yvette.
I have a few quid on Cooper at a very big price and it's a bet I like. If they get massacred at the polls it is possible that the party will swing back to the soft left. In which case Cooper is well positioned as a leading figure of that wing. Also it is absolutely certain that the next leader will be a woman. Which Cooper is.
It will be between Emily and Angela. Though we cannot rule out Yvette.
I have a few quid on Cooper at a very big price and it's a bet I like. If they get massacred at the polls it is possible that the party will swing back to the soft left. In which case Cooper is well positioned as a leading figure of that wing. Also it is absolutely certain that the next leader will be a woman. Which Cooper is.
Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery* Lord Salisbury Arthur Balfour* Henry Campbell-Bannerman* Herbert Asquith David Lloyd George (only Welshman) A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian) Stanley Baldwin* Ramsay Macdonald* Neville Chamberlain Winston Churchill Clement Attlee Anthony Eden Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish) Earl of Home* Harold Wilson Edward Heath James Callaghan Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair* Gordon Brown* David Cameron* Theresa May Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
If you're going to say Scotland forms 12% of the UK population, and ask whether they are over-represented among PMs, you have to compare like with like. You can't just say 40% have "close ties" if they aren't actually part of the 12%.
Looking at recent examples, Blair hadn't lived in Scotland for 25 years by the time he became PM, and indeed didn't even spend the majority of his childhood there (he was educated at Fettes - an independent school so not really indicative of your point about the education system).
Brown I'll give you - plainly a Scot and part of the 12%.
Cameron wasn't born in Scotland, brought up there, or educated there. He represented a constituency in the south of England. The only tenuous connection is via his father, who himself left Scotland at a relatively young age. To call him Scottish and compare him in some way with the 12% of the population who live in Scotland is just silly.
Think of it this way, in the period since 1945, if someone said "You know the PM?" and you said, "The Scot? Yes, I know them", they'd look at you as if you were an idiot unless it was 1963-4 or 2007-10 (i.e. six years out of 74).
It will be between Emily and Angela. Though we cannot rule out Yvette.
I have a few quid on Cooper at a very big price and it's a bet I like. If they get massacred at the polls it is possible that the party will swing back to the soft left. In which case Cooper is well positioned as a leading figure of that wing. Also it is absolutely certain that the next leader will be a woman. Which Cooper is.
70% Leave constituency. An insurgent Brexit Party could do quite a lot of damage there. It was also one of the seats that saw the highest swings against Labour in 2010 and 2015.
That said, given the Liberal Democrats got a princely 639 votes in 2017 there is a lot of ruin she can afford in that seat.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
It will be between Emily and Angela. Though we cannot rule out Yvette.
I have a few quid on Cooper at a very big price and it's a bet I like. If they get massacred at the polls it is possible that the party will swing back to the soft left. In which case Cooper is well positioned as a leading figure of that wing. Also it is absolutely certain that the next leader will be a woman. Which Cooper is.
Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery* Lord Salisbury Arthur Balfour* Henry Campbell-Bannerman* Herbert Asquith David Lloyd George (only Welshman) A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian) Stanley Baldwin* Ramsay Macdonald* Neville Chamberlain Winston Churchill Clement Attlee Anthony Eden Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish) Earl of Home* Harold Wilson Edward Heath James Callaghan Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair* Gordon Brown* David Cameron* Theresa May Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
If you're going to say Scotland forms 12% of the UK population, and ask whether they are over-represented among PMs, you have to compare like with like. You can't just say 40% have "close ties" if they aren't actually part of the 12%.
Looking at recent examples, Blair hadn't lived in Scotland for 25 years by the time he became PM, and indeed didn't even spend the majority of his childhood there (he was educated at Fettes - an independent school so not really indicative of your point about the education system).
Brown I'll give you - plainly a Scot and part of the 12%.
Cameron wasn't born in Scotland, brought up there, or educated there. He represented a constituency in the south of England. The only tenuous connection is via his father, who himself left Scotland at a relatively young age. To call him Scottish and compare him in some way with the 12% of the population who live in Scotland is just silly.
Think of it this way, in the period since 1945, if someone said "You know the PM?" and you said, "The Scot? Yes, I know them", they'd look at you as if you were an idiot unless it was 1963-4 or 2007-10 (i.e. six years out of 74).
It may be memory, but given the oddness of it ... I am sure I remember Gordon Brown refusing to admit he was Scottish rather than British during the indyref years - and that allegedly he was known to admit it only once, to an US interviewer. It seemed so odd at the time but perhaps he was/is simply a New [Labour] Briton in his view.
There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.
Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto. If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it? There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging. I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.
I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.
Personally I would love to see the back of them.
Yes, there has been such polling. You are far from alone.
And what percentage of English people want to "see the back of" the Scots? I'd quite like to see the back of nationalism as a creed, but I see no reason to encourage the Scots to take a decision that would be even worse for them and us than Brexit. Though if English nationalists cause no-deal I can see why the Scots will want independence within the EU, as how could things be much worse? I suspect there will be quite few English based "mock-Jocks" lining up for Scottish nationality, and who could blame them.
I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
PMs from the last millennium! Boris is a complete buffoon. All he is doing is imitating Gordon Brown with reckless spending proposals at the moment given his insistence on the economic cataclysmic No Deal Brexit. If you were uncomfortable with Gordon Brown why on earth would you support Boris Johnson?
There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.
Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto. If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it? There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging. I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.
I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.
Personally I would love to see the back of them.
Yes, there has been such polling. You are far from alone.
And what percentage of English people want to "see the back of" the Scots? I'd quite like to see the back of nationalism as a creed, but I see no reason to encourage the Scots to take a decision that would be even worse for them and us than Brexit. Though if English nationalists cause no-deal I can see why the Scots will want independence within the EU, as how could things be much worse? I suspect there will be quite few English based "mock-Jocks" lining up for Scottish nationality, and who could blame them.
I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.
Let's be serious now.
I'm deadly serious.
Yes, unfortunately your statement was risible.
In the last two referendums, Scotland voted for the status quo, while England voted to "take back control".
It may be memory, but given the oddness of it ... I am sure I remember Gordon Brown refusing to admit he was Scottish rather than British during the indyref years - and that allegedly he was known to admit it only once, to an US interviewer. It seemed so odd at the time but perhaps he was/is simply a New [Labour] Briton in his view.
That doesn't even make the Top 100 of Brown 'oddities'.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
It may be memory, but given the oddness of it ... I am sure I remember Gordon Brown refusing to admit he was Scottish rather than British during the indyref years - and that allegedly he was known to admit it only once, to an US interviewer. It seemed so odd at the time but perhaps he was/is simply a New [Labour] Briton in his view.
That doesn't even make the Top 100 of Brown 'oddities'.
Surely "I believe my boss is a sex pest, but I'm going to carry on working for him anyway" is if anything even more spineless than just fingers-in-ears denial?
Clear re election win for Kurz and the Austrian centre right OVP then, he can now choose between the Far right FPO or the liberal Neos and Green party as his coalition partners
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics de he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
PMs from the last millennium! Boris is a complete buffoon. All he is doing is imitating Gordon Brown with reckless spending proposals at the moment given his insistence on the economic cataclysmic No Deal Brexit. If you were uncomfortable with Gordon Brown why on earth would you support Boris Johnson?
PMs worthy of the title and whatever I think of Brown's economic personalities he at least had a sizeable brain which is more than can be said for Pidcock and Long-Bailey.
If Brown spent recklessly Corbyn would be far worse and of course Boris if he wins a majority would likely pass the WA minus the NI backstop
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
I think it's just a reflection of how little a second-class degree in any subject meant, even at the time when Johnson graduated. Or even a first-class degree, judging by the appalling stupidity of some other Cabinet ministers.
Clear re election win for Kurz and the Austrian centre right OVP then, he can now choose between the Far right FPO or the liberal Neos and Green party as his coalition partners
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing?
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
I once looked up Macmillan's wiki page and discovered he was expelled from Eton. He might have been unable to raise anything but a smile in later life but did he not have children? Maybe he was not fond of women or Charles DE Gaulle who he is quoted as saying had a "woman's hips"!
It will be between Emily and Angela. Though we cannot rule out Yvette.
I have a few quid on Cooper at a very big price and it's a bet I like. If they get massacred at the polls it is possible that the party will swing back to the soft left. In which case Cooper is well positioned as a leading figure of that wing. Also it is absolutely certain that the next leader will be a woman. Which Cooper is.
70% Leave constituency. An insurgent Brexit Party could do quite a lot of damage there. It was also one of the seats that saw the highest swings against Labour in 2010 and 2015.
That said, given the Liberal Democrats got a princely 639 votes in 2017 there is a lot of ruin she can afford in that seat.
You mean the BXP will help her - taking votes away from the Tories.
The parties who received fewest votes at the GE providing a PM who doesn't lead any of them is the perfect sequel to a referendum where the winners aren't allowed to implement the result
One could point out that the party, which won the most votes has made a right pigs ear of government over the last two and a quarter years, losing over 25 MPs and with it their Majority.
So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing? 1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
He did have 4 children!
You mean his wife had four children, presumably?
I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.
1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics de he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
PMs from the last millennium! Boris is a complete buffoon. All he is doing is imitating Gordon Brown with reckless spending proposals at the moment given his insistence on the economic cataclysmic No Deal Brexit. If you were uncomfortable with Gordon Brown why on earth would you support Boris Johnson?
PMs worthy of the title and whatever I think of Brown's economic personalities he at least had a sizeable brain which is more than can be said for Pidcock and Long-Bailey.
If Brown spent recklessly Corbyn would be far worse and of course Boris if he wins a majority would likely pass the WA minus the NI backstop
What would be the point of passing the WA minus the NI backstop if the EU don't agree it?
He might as well pass the Full and Free Access to the Single Market 'Agreement'.
And note the reason given. Precisely my rationale.
Interesting that Peston is playing up the risk as seen by Remainers that if they don't act then Johnson could take us out on 31st October. But that means, ironically, that we could eventually get a deal because Remainers blink even when the EU are dismissive of the chances of Johnson leading us out.
i.e. 1. Remainers VONC and install someone (not Corbyn) to get us beyond 31st Oct. 2. The Government is then VONCed or calls a GE, one of the other of which must happen because the SNP have clearly indicated that the arrangement won't last once 31st Oct is off the table. 3. There is a GE. 4. Johnson emerges triumphant, after squeezing the BXP vote due to having been seen to do everything possible to get out on 31st October and failing only due to the efforts of Remainers, polling 35%+ to secure a working majority. Farage really has no grounds to criticise his efforts. 5. Faced with the reality of the UK leaving, a scenario it has hitherto not had to face, the EU eventually starts to give ground in negotiations (either before or after we leave) to avoid its worst case scenario after the UK leaves. 6. We leave on 31st Jan or whenever (after or before step 5).
PS. Congratulations for the betting tip. Even if it doesn't come off, it was clearly a good value bet.
PMs worthy of the title and whatever I think of Brown's economic personalities he at least had a sizeable brain which is more than can be said for Pidcock and Long-Bailey.
If Brown spent recklessly Corbyn would be far worse and of course Boris if he wins a majority would likely pass the WA minus the NI backstop
What would be the point of passing the WA minus the NI backstop if the EU don't agree it?
He might as well pass the Full and Free Access to the Single Market 'Agreement'.
I propose the amendment "Unicorns may be hunted on common land between 1st September and 1 February"
Sort of mostly related to the previous thread, but if the SNP put down a No Confidence motion in Johnson this week, my opinion of them will go up by approximately a zillion per cent (from an admittedly extremely low base).
It's clear that this would be tactically a daft thing for the opposition parties to do right now, but it's also clear that this is literally the only sane way forward for the country.
Another month is a short period to wait. Then the options for ways forward pile up.
There are clear and obvious benefits for Lab, SNP and LD to wait until BJ is forced to request and extension (or not) but there is also inherent risks in waiting. It's looking like the SNP have started to get cold feet.
The question is, has BJ (or cummings) found a way around the Benn act or are they actually bluffing?
More like they are the only ones with any morals or principles and put the country before personal naked ambitions
1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else? 2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.
Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
Oh, for the love of God...
I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
I don't think a classics de he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
PMs from the last millen Brown why on earth would you support Boris Johnson?
PMs worthy of the title and whatever I think of Brown's economic personalities he at least had a sizeable brain which is more than can be said for Pidcock and Long-Bailey.
If Brown spent recklessly Corbyn would be far worse and of course Boris if he wins a majority would likely pass the WA minus the NI backstop
What would be the point of passing the WA minus the NI backstop if the EU don't agree it?
He might as well pass the Full and Free Access to the Single Market 'Agreement'.
Apologies meant passing the WA minus the GB backstop, without needing to rely on the DUP and with a Tory majority Boris can just leave the NI backstop in place
Comments
Doubt doubt doubt!
Good work on the tip, but I think it'll come out as a loser in the end. I can't see past installing someone who was elected as a Conservative. Serious questions about legitimacy will plague any other PM.
That doesn't mean it won't happen, of course, but it'll be weighed up by MPs before they choose, if it even comes to installing a new PM.
As a ringleader of the plot to remove Thatcher he was a major cause of the rupture in the party that still hasn't fully healed today. She should have been left to face the electorate in 92 which would have been a far better outcome for the party.
Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:
The Earl of Rosebery*
Lord Salisbury
Arthur Balfour*
Henry Campbell-Bannerman*
Herbert Asquith
David Lloyd George (only Welshman)
A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian)
Stanley Baldwin*
Ramsay Macdonald*
Neville Chamberlain
Winston Churchill
Clement Attlee
Anthony Eden
Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish)
Earl of Home*
Harold Wilson
Edward Heath
James Callaghan
Margaret Thatcher
John Major
Tony Blair*
Gordon Brown*
David Cameron*
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).
There are several reasons for that - one is that the Scottish education system has always been rather better than the English one at least until recent years under devolution. Another is that the Scots who go into politics have tended to face more barriers and thus been both more dedicated and just better than their English peers. But it's also worth remembering how highly the English used to regard the Scots. When Jimmy Perry was writing Dad's Army he noted the very high proportion of Scottish doctors and teachers in seaside towns in the Second World War, whom he noted were venerated by the English who saw them as much cleverer (see again about that much better education system). Scots always stood in English eyes for unflappable solidity, calm, common sense and hard work, and therefore they were quite happy to vote for them. The Irish and Welsh with their reputation for bombast and hyperactivity, not so much.
That seems to have gone, to be replaced by mutual suspicion, distrust and shrillness. Speaking as somebody who isn't English or Scottish that seeems rather sad.
I really enjoyed the last proper Civ game. II, back in 1999...
Slightly peeved Carthaginians aren't available any more, but there we are.
I don't know is the honest answer; I have no ties to Wales but for some reason I feel a far greater affection for the Welsh than I do for the Irish or Scots.
Living in Peterhead for 6 years may explain my dislike for the latter though.
Ah...
Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.
I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.
And we can beat the Aussies.
AFP's sources said the hackers targeted British engine-maker Rolls-Royce and the French technology consultancy and supplier Expleo, as well as two other French contractors working for Airbus that AFP was unable to identify.
From memory too, Blair count count equally one way or another.
Not that I think there's much merit in this exercise. It's interesting, but it doesn't move the conversation on very much.
If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.
I was born in a different country to my father. If I'm asked my where I'm from, I tend to give the answer for myself, not for my father.
I wouldn't like to override what Cameron himself thinks, and I genuinely have no idea what he says about himself. But I find it odd that someone would say he's Scottish and not English.
Well, I hope you're patient.
Also, Leeds wasting millions of pounds on tram proposals which got early green lights then got canned (repeatedly by various governments) whilst there's always cash for improvements in London didn't sit well.
To widen the point, name me Prime Ministers other than Lloyd George or Bonar Law who had Welsh or Irish parents. Offhand I can't think of any at all since Wellington, although that's hardly conclusive. But he mere fact we're discussing the point does show the huge influence the Scottish diaspora has had on Britain, far exceeding the proportionate strength of its population.
https://twitter.com/homelesshorse/status/1178334752325156865?s=20
Vilimsky has confirmed they will go into opposition.
Kurz will try to go for the NEO/Green option.
Without her he wouldn't have got on the ballot.
They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
The extension enables the election which may, or may not, lead to R2.
She also wrote the report into why Labour lost GE2015 which majored on how the Labour Party came across as soft on welfare and immigration, which hurt them with swing voters, and was welcomed by centrist Labour politicians as it recognised why the voters won by Blair had gone to Cameron.
Something for everyone there, so I could very much see it be her.
Looking at recent examples, Blair hadn't lived in Scotland for 25 years by the time he became PM, and indeed didn't even spend the majority of his childhood there (he was educated at Fettes - an independent school so not really indicative of your point about the education system).
Brown I'll give you - plainly a Scot and part of the 12%.
Cameron wasn't born in Scotland, brought up there, or educated there. He represented a constituency in the south of England. The only tenuous connection is via his father, who himself left Scotland at a relatively young age. To call him Scottish and compare him in some way with the 12% of the population who live in Scotland is just silly.
Think of it this way, in the period since 1945, if someone said "You know the PM?" and you said, "The Scot? Yes, I know them", they'd look at you as if you were an idiot unless it was 1963-4 or 2007-10 (i.e. six years out of 74).
That said, given the Liberal Democrats got a princely 639 votes in 2017 there is a lot of ruin she can afford in that seat.
That doesn't even make the Top 100 of Brown 'oddities'.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1178352597222211584?s=20
Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTE6cTBrGcA
If Brown spent recklessly Corbyn would be far worse and of course Boris if he wins a majority would likely pass the WA minus the NI backstop
He might as well pass the Full and Free Access to the Single Market 'Agreement'.
i.e.
1. Remainers VONC and install someone (not Corbyn) to get us beyond 31st Oct.
2. The Government is then VONCed or calls a GE, one of the other of which must happen because the SNP have clearly indicated that the arrangement won't last once 31st Oct is off the table.
3. There is a GE.
4. Johnson emerges triumphant, after squeezing the BXP vote due to having been seen to do everything possible to get out on 31st October and failing only due to the efforts of Remainers, polling 35%+ to secure a working majority. Farage really has no grounds to criticise his efforts.
5. Faced with the reality of the UK leaving, a scenario it has hitherto not had to face, the EU eventually starts to give ground in negotiations (either before or after we leave) to avoid its worst case scenario after the UK leaves.
6. We leave on 31st Jan or whenever (after or before step 5).
PS. Congratulations for the betting tip. Even if it doesn't come off, it was clearly a good value bet.