I laid him heavily at 12-1 and I'm sweating a bit. I laid him because he said he wanted to do more than simply ask for an extension and then a GE, which I didn't think would be acceptable.
I wouldn't sweat too much, his desire to be PM beyond extension request/GE calling makes him a non-starter.
Who does get the call?
Corbyn at 2-1 seems a very generous price.
Beckett 13, Harman/Starmer in the 30s and Stewart 50-1 seem reasonable bets as well.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
But there can be no affirmative Vote of Confidence in a Government that has not yet been formed.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
But there can be no affirmative Vote of Confidence in a Government that has not yet been formed.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
I think we all agree that anyone who talks in such ways should not be put in power. The point you might be deliberately missing is that whoever put that idiotic banner up almost certainly isn't in power.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
The effigies and banner hanging from the bridge in Manchester represent the view of some people on the Left. They cannot therefore by definition be inflammatory. The word humbug on the other hand...…..
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
If Johnson does not resign, the FTPA specifically states commons must pass a positive vote in someone, and indeed Johnson has the right to try and regain their confidence. It's not fit for porpoise
Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem
Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...
no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.
No - we've been through all this several times. The process is: (1) A VoNC in the existing government (2) If the Queen is advised that someone else is likely to be able to command the confidence of the house, she asks them to form a government. They are then prime minister and they form a government. (3) If there is a vote of confidence in the new government within 14 days of the VoNC, there won't be an election. If there is no such vote there will be an election. But the new government remains in office until the election.
but the talk was that BJ would resign as PM
In that case I have no idea by what you mean by his resigning but remaining prime minister.
If he remains prime minister then things will stay as they are now.
If he resigns, someone else will be appointed - because there has to be a prime minister - and there won't be any need for a confidence vote.
Think about it. Theresa May resigned. Johnson was appointed prime minister. There has never been a confidence vote in Johnson's government.
The effigies and banner hanging from the bridge in Manchester represent the view of some people on the Left. They cannot therefore by definition be inflammatory. The word humbug on the other hand...…..
If you're having to find thuggish idiots putting stupid banners on bridges in order to make the PM's behaviour seem more reasonable, then it's not an good situation for the governance of this country.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
There will be plenty of quite justified outrage - particularly as a picture of it was tweeted by Momentum - and I would have thought it merits a police investigation.
There is no direct comparison, though. Parliament is supposed to be rather more responsible than the lowest of behaviour in the country as a whole.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
There will be plenty of quite justified outrage - particularly as a picture of it was tweeted by Momentum - and I would have thought it merits a police investigation.
There is no direct comparison, though. Parliament is supposed to be rather more responsible than the lowest of behaviour in the country as a whole.
"Yes, it's true that the PM stamped on a kitten. But here's a video of some arsehole in Lancaster stamping on a whole litter of kittens. Vote Boris!"
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
No, they just like the opportunity for whataboutery a few other idiots give them to excuse their leaders actions.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
Charles Leclerc, apparently following team orders, lets Sebastian Vettel through from third on the first lap in order to block off Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari is saying Vettel should now move aside to give the lead back to Leclerc, Vettel is refusing to do so at the moment...
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
I think the question we need to be asking is, who does *Boris* want.
Unless parliament has clearly lined up behind a successor on the day it does the VONC, which currently looks unlikely thanks to the Corbyn roadblock, he should be able to roll up to the palace, hand in his resignation and recommend any reasonable alternative. I doubt he'd be refused unless it was totally bonkers. This is all the more true if he resigns of his own accord, in which case parliament don't even control the timing.
He may of course also try to hang on and refuse to budge unless parliament to get behind an alternative, in which case it's parliamentary support that matters, but given parliament's recent record of getting their shit together when they absolutely need to, you'd think he'd want to take the initiative.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
No, they weren’t asking for it. Worse, they helped create the environment where such vile incitements were normalised.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I dislike them intensely but making such a monumental change to our voting system whilst another party is having their conference would be too low even for them.
People used to say that kind of thing about the Tories
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
No, it’s a simple character assessment. Our PM gives every indication of being a self serving narcissist.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
I don't think there is a plan that will work. Its a rotten Parliament that might have to run its course...
Charles Leclerc, apparently following team orders, lets Sebastian Vettel through from third on the first lap in order to block off Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari is saying Vettel should now move aside to give the lead back to Leclerc, Vettel is refusing to do so at the moment...
They tried to switch Leclerc back in front, but Vettel wasn’t having any of it and Lewis was too close behind. Rather amusing.
There will be a perception that remainer MPs are jumping off the cliff now to avoid having to explain why they voted down whatever deal is brought back.
A deal that will be at least as good, but in all likelihood an improvement, on May's deal.
There wouldn't be a plausible excuse for them to have voted it down especially with the hysteria about avoiding no deal.
Cummings had absolutely nailed remainer MP's to the floor in a way which has surprised me.
I look forward to the GE...unlike Labour MP's.
The polls are very unclear though. Opinium has Labour losing 50 seats - whilst Comres has them gaining seats from the Tories.
Latest Comres has Labour gaining 14 seats from the Tories but is likely an outlier as it has the LDs lower than other pollsters and the Brexit Party higher
Neither poll says any such thing as they are merely snapshots of opinion expressed as a national percentage. They tell us very little about seat by seat races, even when put through daft filters like Baxter or Flaviable.
Useless as they are they remain our best available information, and they do hold more information than none, even if we might regard the information we can extract from them as "obvious" - but is it obvious because we've subconsciously filtered it from the opinion polls?
For one thing we can see that the Opposition is not on course to sweep to victory. This is in itself significant, given the serious problems experienced by the Government. I think we can say that the opinion polls currently span a range of results from a Parliament even more well hung than the present Parliament, to a Conservative (Johnson) landslide. For all that polling is derided, most of the time the final result is within the range of the opinion polls.
However, given that there have been notable exceptions, such as 2015, we might consider what circumstances might produce another polling miss, and decide whether we think this is at all plausible. Might Corbyn win a majority for Labour?
I can't honestly construct a plausible narrative that would see this happen. It is too hard for me to see past my own antipathy to judge whether he can turn around the current negative leadership ratings. It's a black swan that might merit consideration, though.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
No, it’s a simple character assessment. Our PM gives every indication of being a self serving narcissist.
He might act like a self-serving narcissist. He might sound like a self-serving narcissist. But don't let that fool you. He is.
Charles Leclerc, apparently following team orders, lets Sebastian Vettel through from third on the first lap in order to block off Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari is saying Vettel should now move aside to give the lead back to Leclerc, Vettel is refusing to do so at the moment...
They tried to switch Leclerc back in front, but Vettel wasn’t having any of it and Lewis was too close behind. Rather amusing.
Actually, it sounds as though the plan might have been *not* to race into the first two corners, but for Leclerc to not attempt to deny Vettel a tow, in order to clear Hamilton. Vettel then mugged Leclerc into the corner.
"I completely understand, the only thing is that I respected [the plan at the start], I gave him the slipstream, no problems.,"
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
No, they weren’t asking for it. Worse, they helped create the environment where such vile incitements were normalised.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
Why would the government not resign?
It makes absolutely no sense for Johnson to be the one to send the extension letter.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I don’t think being opposed to serial betrayal, groping women and pathological lying is old fashioned. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
No, they weren’t asking for it. Worse, they helped create the environment where such vile incitements were normalised.
They weren’t asking for it but they are to blame.
Olga Korbett level mental gymnastics.
Good people can’t do bad things and bad people cant do good things is rule no1 of the progressive manifesto
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
Why would the government not resign?
It makes absolutely no sense for Johnson to be the one to send the extension letter.
He might do neither, and wait to be pushed one way or another. If 14 days expire before the court order forces him to send the letter (or even before), he might fancy being a martyr. He would not want for tabloid support and it would utterly marginalise Nigel Farage.
Simple lesson. Never go to the BBC for journalism. They aren't even second rate. I won't deny the BBC's ability to contribute to the culture of this country, and some of its programming is world class. But its newsgathering and reporting is utter shite.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I don’t think being opposed to serial betrayal, groping women and pathological lying is old fashioned. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I don’t think being opposed to serial betrayal, groping women and pathological lying is old fashioned. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
You’re suggesting he’s likely to be a reformed individual ? An interesting take.
Self serving narcissists can also, in the right circumstances, be productive members of society. Making them PM doesn’t fall into that set of circumstances.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
There is no evidence that Boris is either sorry for his conduct or a reformed character. Rehabilitation starts with acknowledging the pain caused; the likes of Boris just double down.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
No, they weren’t asking for it. Worse, they helped create the environment where such vile incitements were normalised.
They weren’t asking for it but they are to blame.
Olga Korbett level mental gymnastics.
Good people can’t do bad things and bad people cant do good things is rule no1 of the progressive manifesto
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
I think there is a case for emergency legislation to repeal the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) to avoid misuse. And also a case for passing legislation limiting prorogation to say no more than five working days, again to avoid misuse and to take back control from the SC.
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
Now is absolutely the wrong time to start trying to 'improve' the constitution. You don't do things like that in haste or in response to any given set of circumstances. There are always unintended consequences to such things - and you can set things in motion that you had no idea would ever be possible.
I am in favour of setting up a Constitutional Convention with a wide remit and completely non-partisan membership. Give it a 1 year time frame for information and evidence gathering and then a further 12-18 months to come back with recommendations.
But rushing through anything that alters the constitutional arrangements at this stage would be utterly wrong. And potentially very dangerous.
These are targeted and basically non-contentious improvements with cross party support that can be scrutinised by the Commons and the Lords over several days for unintended consequences. I am not proposing a full constitutional settlement. I think that would require time and some sort of Convention as you suggest.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I don’t think being opposed to serial betrayal, groping women and pathological lying is old fashioned. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
You’re suggesting he’s likely to be a reformed individual ? An interesting take.
Self serving narcissists can also, in the right circumstances, be productive members of society. Making them PM doesn’t fall into that set of circumstances.
I’m not suggesting that, I’m just noting how the rules change depending on the person involved.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
There is no evidence that Boris is either sorry for his conduct or a reformed character. Rehabilitation starts with acknowledging the pain caused; the likes of Boris just double down.
If as reported, his parents were nearly always totally absent in his childhood, and the siblings relied on each other for everything, the damage to him could be very deep.
Lol. I believe I first suggested Bercow as next PM of a temporary GONU. But I was joking at the time.
The rule of politics in the last few years has been that the most absurd things you can imagine will happen about 3 years later. Trump as President? Corbyn as Lab leader?
Simple lesson. Never go to the BBC for journalism. They aren't even second rate. I won't deny the BBC's ability to contribute to the culture of this country, and some of its programming is world class. But its newsgathering and reporting is utter shite.
Nah, they get things wrong (and probably got this wrong) but I think they have higher standards than probably all of our newspapers.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
There is no evidence that Boris is either sorry for his conduct or a reformed character. Rehabilitation starts with acknowledging the pain caused; the likes of Boris just double down.
The likes of people you disagree with can do no right
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
Why would the government not resign?
It makes absolutely no sense for Johnson to be the one to send the extension letter.
Taking seriously the "die in a ditch" statement, then Johnson will do anything to avoid an extension, whatever the personal cost.
That would dictate staying in office, refusing to send the letter, and using every means available to him to defy any authority which tried to intervene, in the hope that he could delay matters long enough to avoid an extension being even. Even if it meant that he was ultimately convicted of a serious offence, sent to prison and became personally liable for huge amounts of damages.
Simple lesson. Never go to the BBC for journalism. They aren't even second rate. I won't deny the BBC's ability to contribute to the culture of this country, and some of its programming is world class. But its newsgathering and reporting is utter shite.
...Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives?...
I'm surprised to hear you say that, because it's obviously wrong and you're not usually this stupid. "Taking one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives" is something we do every day. We condemn murderers for their murder, rapists for their rape, and morris dancers for their morrissing. We do it so often in fact, there's even a joke about it ("...but I shag *one* sheep").
If you were arguing for putting acts in context, then fine. But that's not quite what you were saying. (Did you mean to type something else?)
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
That's extremely horrible. If MPs had done it it would be like 10,000x as horrible, but still extremely horrible.
It is indeed horrible and to be unreservedly condemned. And it is at least in part a response to the cues of the hard right condoning violence against those unconvinced by no deal Brexit.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
“They were asking for it “ ?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
No, they weren’t asking for it. Worse, they helped create the environment where such vile incitements were normalised.
They weren’t asking for it but they are to blame.
Olga Korbett level mental gymnastics.
Good people can’t do bad things and bad people cant do good things is rule no1 of the progressive manifesto
Johnson has form for lying about things that matter to the public, such as the vast sums of money wasted on the Garden Bridge just to get started. His actions in his personal life are only relevant because they confirm that as a fixed and unvarying aspect of his character.
He might do neither, and wait to be pushed one way or another. If 14 days expire before the court order forces him to send the letter (or even before), he might fancy being a martyr. He would not want for tabloid support and it would utterly marginalise Nigel Farage.
Nah, it makes no sense.
If he sends the extension letter then there is no reason for remainers in parliament to vote for a GE. In fact, they would run a mile from it.
The optics of Corbyn sending the 'surrender letter' are awful for Labour...just as it would be for the Tories.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
The problem is that there is no evidence it is not ongoing. An affair - whether it is Paddy Ashdown or John Major - is obviously a betrayal and a character flaw but it can be a one off and is not necessarily symptomatic. Johnson's indiscretions seem to me to be so common, continous and long standing that they do, I believe, indicate a deep seated dishonesty that is reflected across many, if not all, aspects of his life and career.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
Deadline passes - court rules that Boris must write a letter - still requires a VONC to oust him.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
I think there is a case for emergency legislation to repeal the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) to avoid misuse. And also a case for passing legislation limiting prorogation to say no more than five working days, again to avoid misuse and to take back control from the SC.
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
What are you suggesting replace the CCA? Or are we not going to deal with emergencies and war should they arise? Its ine thing to be keen to avoid a no deal Brexit, its quite another to throw the baby out with the bathwater
Revert to the position prior to Blair introducing the CCA i.e. the Civil Defence and Emergency Powers legislation.
He might do neither, and wait to be pushed one way or another. If 14 days expire before the court order forces him to send the letter (or even before), he might fancy being a martyr. He would not want for tabloid support and it would utterly marginalise Nigel Farage.
Nah, it makes no sense.
If he sends the extension letter then there is no reason for remainers in parliament to vote for a GE. In fact, they would run a mile from it.
The optics of Corbyn sending the 'surrender letter' are awful for Labour...just as it would be for the Tories.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
Deadline passes - court rules that Boris must write a letter - still requires a VONC to oust him.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Jezza won’t accept a non Jezza option.
LDs won’t support Jezza.
It’s a bluff worth calling for Boris.
The LDs have to blink first. Otherwise, they will forever be tainted with No Deal Brexit. As regarding Swinson's statement that she will not put Corbyn in No.10 - she also pledged no tuition fee increase.
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
Thoughts and prayers for your Ken Clarke lay (25-1 when you wrote the piece) now in to 8-1.
I laid him heavily at 12-1 and I'm sweating a bit. I laid him because he said he wanted to do more than simply ask for an extension and then a GE, which I didn't think would be acceptable.
Been there. Done that. Got the £500 t-shirt ("There's no way Theresa will extend past March!") Major symps.
My Trust is one of the 6, but it isn't really a new Hospital, though welcome:
We get according to our CEO:
o A new Maternity Hospital and dedicated Children’s Hospital at the Royal Infirmary
o Two ‘super’ intensive care units with 100 beds in total, almost double the current number
o A major planned care Treatment Centre at the Glenfield Hospital
o Modernised wards, operating theatres and imaging facilities
o A new stroke rehabilitation unit and primary care/diagnostic hub at the General Hospital
o Additional car parking
The new Children's, Maternity, and Treatment centre are all really new wings of existing hospitals.
The money is not PFI at least, but substantially less than the cost of the rebuild that was abandoned 10 years ago, which was to be £700 million. We have had planning blight for a decade since that deal collapsed.
Simple lesson. Never go to the BBC for journalism. They aren't even second rate. I won't deny the BBC's ability to contribute to the culture of this country, and some of its programming is world class. But its newsgathering and reporting is utter shite.
He might do neither, and wait to be pushed one way or another. If 14 days expire before the court order forces him to send the letter (or even before), he might fancy being a martyr. He would not want for tabloid support and it would utterly marginalise Nigel Farage.
Nah, it makes no sense.
If he sends the extension letter then there is no reason for remainers in parliament to vote for a GE. In fact, they would run a mile from it.
The optics of Corbyn sending the 'surrender letter' are awful for Labour...just as it would be for the Tories.
I’m suggesting he doesn’t send it.
Would he enjoy the conditions in prison, though, or even under brief police questioning ?
A life of the pampered would for the first time meet the consequences of its actions.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
Deadline passes - court rules that Boris must write a letter - still requires a VONC to oust him.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Jezza won’t accept a non Jezza option.
LDs won’t support Jezza.
It’s a bluff worth calling for Boris.
The LDs have to blink first. Otherwise, they will forever be tainted with No Deal Brexit. As regarding Swinson's statement that she will not put Corbyn in No.10 - she also pledged no tuition fee increase.
If they do blink they spend the next GE denying they would go into coalition with Jezza again.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
...Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives?...
I'm surprised to hear you say that, because it's obviously wrong and you're not usually this stupid. "Taking one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives" is something we do every day. We condemn murderers for their murder, rapists for their rape, and morris dancers for their morrissing. We do it so often in fact, there's even a joke about it ("...but I shag *one* sheep").
If you were arguing for putting acts in context, then fine. But that's not quite what you were saying. (Did you mean to type something else?)
What I’m saying is that people have good and bad qualities, and refusing to see a person through any prism bar the bad one is not a good way to go, generally.
He might do neither, and wait to be pushed one way or another. If 14 days expire before the court order forces him to send the letter (or even before), he might fancy being a martyr. He would not want for tabloid support and it would utterly marginalise Nigel Farage.
Nah, it makes no sense.
If he sends the extension letter then there is no reason for remainers in parliament to vote for a GE. In fact, they would run a mile from it.
The optics of Corbyn sending the 'surrender letter' are awful for Labour...just as it would be for the Tories.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
The problem is that there is no evidence it is not ongoing. An affair - whether it is Paddy Ashdown or John Major - is obviously a betrayal and a character flaw but it can be a one off and is not necessarily symptomatic. Johnson's indiscretions seem to me to be so common, continous and long standing that they do, I believe, indicate a deep seated dishonesty that is reflected across many, if not all, aspects of his life and career.
It is a refreshingly old fashioned view for progressives to take, so really I shouldn’t be knocking it
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
Deadline passes - court rules that Boris must write a letter - still requires a VONC to oust him.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Jezza won’t accept a non Jezza option.
LDs won’t support Jezza.
It’s a bluff worth calling for Boris.
The LDs have to blink first. Otherwise, they will forever be tainted with No Deal Brexit. As regarding Swinson's statement that she will not put Corbyn in No.10 - she also pledged no tuition fee increase.
They wouldn't want to be tainted with putting Corbyn into Downing Street - even for a matter of hours.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
Hardcore!
Yep.
Good to see old fashioned fire and brimstone still popular
I don’t think being opposed to serial betrayal, groping women and pathological lying is old fashioned. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
I agree with that last. There is a need to keep pushing the outrage bus, as quite a lot of the stuff is exaggerated or fabricated and they are scared the narrative will collapse.
I found the racism claims by the chap in the Commons recently pretty low - for one the likes of Harriet Harman have made very similar statements to Boris, and for another women in eg Iran are currently getting brutal prison sentences for refusing to wear the more oppressive (and optional in Islam) forms of Islamic dress. Boris is right on the mainly oppressive natrue of the Burka.
And we currently have this 700k loan thing, for which all the people and papers chiselling away seem to have no evidence at all apart from their own screeching.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
There is no evidence that Boris is either sorry for his conduct or a reformed character. Rehabilitation starts with acknowledging the pain caused; the likes of Boris just double down.
The likes of people you disagree with can do no right
No. I'm talking about people who don't admit wrongdoing even after they've been caught. It's a trait that usually gets erased in early childhood, but for some reason, someone occasionally makes it all the way to adulthood without losing it. Boris is one of those, and it's one the reasons he is utterly unfit for public office. Even someone whose opinions are, in my eyes, even more vile -- like Nigel Farage -- have better standards of moral hygiene and sometimes admit that they haven't quite lived up to the standards they'd wish. Not Boris. Boris is just self-serving, solipsistic, gaslighting scum.
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
The problem is that there is no evidence it is not ongoing. An affair - whether it is Paddy Ashdown or John Major - is obviously a betrayal and a character flaw but it can be a one off and is not necessarily symptomatic. Johnson's indiscretions seem to me to be so common, continous and long standing that they do, I believe, indicate a deep seated dishonesty that is reflected across many, if not all, aspects of his life and career.
It is a refreshingly old fashioned view for progressives to take, so really I shouldn’t be knocking it
That having multiple relationships, other than in an open context, involves dishonesty strikes me as a matter of fact, rather than fashion.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
Am I correct that if the LDs and the some of the 21 ex Tories abstain, Corbyn can still be VoCed for, say, 1 day ?
Tories plus DUP = 298 Labour plus SNP plus plaid and green = 287
Indies split generally slightly against Corbyn Change would abstain or vote against
Then, if the expelled Tories vote Corbyn in for 1 day or even a week, LD votes are not necessary. Some of the wind from the LD sail will also abate.
Well yes, I mean if we are going to propose things that wont happen, sure, but even then, let's imagine the following......
Add the 21 to Corbyn = 308. Now take off John Mann and Kate Hoey, mann would be against, hoey abstains we h e 299 vs 306. 5 change vote no 304 v 306, indies split about 4 more no than yes, he loses by 2
I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
The problem is that there is no evidence it is not ongoing. An affair - whether it is Paddy Ashdown or John Major - is obviously a betrayal and a character flaw but it can be a one off and is not necessarily symptomatic. Johnson's indiscretions seem to me to be so common, continous and long standing that they do, I believe, indicate a deep seated dishonesty that is reflected across many, if not all, aspects of his life and career.
It is a refreshingly old fashioned view for progressives to take, so really I shouldn’t be knocking it
That having multiple relationships, other than in an open contest, involves dishonesty strikes me as a matter of fact, rather than fashion.
Marking someone as ‘bad’ and seeing everything through that prism is what I was referring to as old fashioned
Slightly misleading as 159k were eligible to vote in the leadership election, so the majority of that increase from a year ago was clearly when the Conservatives were really in the polling doldrums under May, but people were joining up to vote in the (then) presumed forthcoming leadership contest. So 159k was the membership base at a time when the Tories scored 9% in the Euro Elections.
They're still looking at about a 30k since Johnson took over if Ashcroft is correct. That's a fairly good rise, but not "mass membership" levels and it'd be interesting to know how many of those are re-joiners or switchers from the Brexit Party/UKIP.
All parties also need to be very cautious over what increased membership means. Labour trumpet being the biggest membership party in western Europe (or whatever the line is) but use that to blind themselves to the fact that their leader has -60 approval. Lib Dems boasted of a surge post-Coalition, but a fat lot of good it did them in 2017.
The UK electorate is 46m, so Labour's membership is around 1.1% of that, the Tories' around 0.4%, and the Lib Dems' around 0.3%. So for every Tory member, there are perhaps 100 people who'd vote for them in a good election for the blues, but who aren't cultists, are either moderately pro or moderately anti the current direction, and who the Conservatives really need to address more than the fan boys and girls.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
7. Johnson [possibly] wins a landslide majority on 35% of the vote and the rule of law in Britain is forever damaged beyond repair.
It's an extraordinarily dangerous situation for the country.
It isn't. We don't know what he'll do. I doubt that he knows.
He says he won't send the letter, but that doesn't help much because he lies all the time. Previously he said he'd abide by the law, so unless he's planning to resign at least one of his statements was a lie.
Comments
Who does get the call?
Corbyn at 2-1 seems a very generous price.
Beckett 13, Harman/Starmer in the 30s and Stewart 50-1 seem reasonable bets as well.
Farage seems a raging lay at 30.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1178082232931672067
1. Government is VoNCed.
2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory.
3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ]
4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried.
5. Recommends GE.
6. GE takes place after 1st November.
It's not fit for porpoise
If he remains prime minister then things will stay as they are now.
If he resigns, someone else will be appointed - because there has to be a prime minister - and there won't be any need for a confidence vote.
Think about it. Theresa May resigned. Johnson was appointed prime minister. There has never been a confidence vote in Johnson's government.
There is no direct comparison, though. Parliament is supposed to be rather more responsible than the lowest of behaviour in the country as a whole.
Did the no-dealers really think they were going to be the only ones to be able to whip up mobs?
Supporting Brexit is the equivalent of wearing a short skirt it seems.
Charles Leclerc, apparently following team orders, lets Sebastian Vettel through from third on the first lap in order to block off Lewis Hamilton.
Ferrari is saying Vettel should now move aside to give the lead back to Leclerc, Vettel is refusing to do so at the moment...
Unless parliament has clearly lined up behind a successor on the day it does the VONC, which currently looks unlikely thanks to the Corbyn roadblock, he should be able to roll up to the palace, hand in his resignation and recommend any reasonable alternative. I doubt he'd be refused unless it was totally bonkers. This is all the more true if he resigns of his own accord, in which case parliament don't even control the timing.
He may of course also try to hang on and refuse to budge unless parliament to get behind an alternative, in which case it's parliamentary support that matters, but given parliament's recent record of getting their shit together when they absolutely need to, you'd think he'd want to take the initiative.
Our PM gives every indication of being a self serving narcissist.
189,001.
I joined today.
For one thing we can see that the Opposition is not on course to sweep to victory. This is in itself significant, given the serious problems experienced by the Government. I think we can say that the opinion polls currently span a range of results from a Parliament even more well hung than the present Parliament, to a Conservative (Johnson) landslide. For all that polling is derided, most of the time the final result is within the range of the opinion polls.
However, given that there have been notable exceptions, such as 2015, we might consider what circumstances might produce another polling miss, and decide whether we think this is at all plausible. Might Corbyn win a majority for Labour?
I can't honestly construct a plausible narrative that would see this happen. It is too hard for me to see past my own antipathy to judge whether he can turn around the current negative leadership ratings. It's a black swan that might merit consideration, though.
He might sound like a self-serving narcissist.
But don't let that fool you. He is.
Vettel then mugged Leclerc into the corner.
"I completely understand, the only thing is that I respected [the plan at the start], I gave him the slipstream, no problems.,"
Olga Korbett level mental gymnastics.
It makes absolutely no sense for Johnson to be the one to send the extension letter.
I won't deny the BBC's ability to contribute to the culture of this country, and some of its programming is world class. But its newsgathering and reporting is utter shite.
An interesting take.
Self serving narcissists can also, in the right circumstances, be productive members of society. Making them PM doesn’t fall into that set of circumstances.
Rehabilitation starts with acknowledging the pain caused; the likes of Boris just double down.
That's why my money is on PM Chris Williamson.
That would dictate staying in office, refusing to send the letter, and using every means available to him to defy any authority which tried to intervene, in the hope that he could delay matters long enough to avoid an extension being even. Even if it meant that he was ultimately convicted of a serious offence, sent to prison and became personally liable for huge amounts of damages.
If you were arguing for putting acts in context, then fine. But that's not quite what you were saying. (Did you mean to type something else?)
If he sends the extension letter then there is no reason for remainers in parliament to vote for a GE. In fact, they would run a mile from it.
The optics of Corbyn sending the 'surrender letter' are awful for Labour...just as it would be for the Tories.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Jezza won’t accept a non Jezza option.
LDs won’t support Jezza.
It’s a bluff worth calling for Boris.
We get according to our CEO:
o A new Maternity Hospital and dedicated Children’s Hospital at the Royal Infirmary
o Two ‘super’ intensive care units with 100 beds in total, almost double the current number
o A major planned care Treatment Centre at the Glenfield Hospital
o Modernised wards, operating theatres and imaging facilities
o A new stroke rehabilitation unit and primary care/diagnostic hub at the General Hospital
o Additional car parking
The new Children's, Maternity, and Treatment centre are all really new wings of existing hospitals.
The money is not PFI at least, but substantially less than the cost of the rebuild that was abandoned 10 years ago, which was to be £700 million. We have had planning blight for a decade since that deal collapsed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10276243
A life of the pampered would for the first time meet the consequences of its actions.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
Labour plus SNP plus plaid and green = 287
Indies split generally slightly against Corbyn
Change would abstain or vote against
It is a refreshingly old fashioned view for progressives to take, so really I shouldn’t be knocking it
Swinson won't blink.
I found the racism claims by the chap in the Commons recently pretty low - for one the likes of Harriet Harman have made very similar statements to Boris, and for another women in eg Iran are currently getting brutal prison sentences for refusing to wear the more oppressive (and optional in Islam) forms of Islamic dress. Boris is right on the mainly oppressive natrue of the Burka.
And we currently have this 700k loan thing, for which all the people and papers chiselling away seem to have no evidence at all apart from their own screeching.
Even someone whose opinions are, in my eyes, even more vile -- like Nigel Farage -- have better standards of moral hygiene and sometimes admit that they haven't quite lived up to the standards they'd wish.
Not Boris. Boris is just self-serving, solipsistic, gaslighting scum.
I believe that too. But Meeks disagrees.
1 vote of no confidence
2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful
3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter
4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically
5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts
6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
There is ample time for parliament to see the deal that is brought back before making their next move.
I think the truth is that remainer MPs don't want to be seen to vote down a chance for a deal...again.
Add the 21 to Corbyn = 308. Now take off John Mann and Kate Hoey, mann would be against, hoey abstains we h e 299 vs 306. 5 change vote no 304 v 306, indies split about 4 more no than yes, he loses by 2
Contempt of Parliament
Contempt of Court
Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
They're still looking at about a 30k since Johnson took over if Ashcroft is correct. That's a fairly good rise, but not "mass membership" levels and it'd be interesting to know how many of those are re-joiners or switchers from the Brexit Party/UKIP.
All parties also need to be very cautious over what increased membership means. Labour trumpet being the biggest membership party in western Europe (or whatever the line is) but use that to blind themselves to the fact that their leader has -60 approval. Lib Dems boasted of a surge post-Coalition, but a fat lot of good it did them in 2017.
The UK electorate is 46m, so Labour's membership is around 1.1% of that, the Tories' around 0.4%, and the Lib Dems' around 0.3%. So for every Tory member, there are perhaps 100 people who'd vote for them in a good election for the blues, but who aren't cultists, are either moderately pro or moderately anti the current direction, and who the Conservatives really need to address more than the fan boys and girls.
It's an extraordinarily dangerous situation for the country.
He says he won't send the letter, but that doesn't help much because he lies all the time. Previously he said he'd abide by the law, so unless he's planning to resign at least one of his statements was a lie.