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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week
A leading SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, has told the BBC that there could be a confidence vote in Johnson as early as next week.
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If Jeremy Corbyn were to concede a different nominal prime minister for the few weeks this would take, I'd suggest looking at the Corbynista wing of the party and not recycled red Tories, as Corbyn probably sees them. Laura Pidcock, RLB or even Dawn Butler are possible, but probably Corbyn himself.
Jo Swinson is not the kingmaker here. She does not have the numbers, and if rumours that Corbyn and his handlers are at best relaxed about Brexit, she does not even have anything Corbyn particularly wants because Boris will call an election at some point anyway.
ETA: I'd agree on the VoNC though.
I suspect Boris would be delighted either way.
Which isn't to say Corbyn is able to get the numbers either, I've never been convinced the idea is workable. I think it's even less likely if you rule out Corbyn though.
Starkey thinks Pannick misled the court about the historical context of the legal precedents.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516507/DAVID-STARKEY-historic-Supreme-Court-judgement.html
Which is a shame, as I'd like to be certain of preventing No Deal and the Opposition are, in my opinion, playing a dangerous game. Their thinking is that the Benn Act looks watertight. Hmmm.
If there's a coalition gov't I cannot see Jeremy Corbyn accepting ANY other Labour figure. I really cannot. So, with due respect to Mike, I can't see Margaret Beckett being appointed. But I'd like to be proved wrong about that as she'd do the job admirably.
Clearly it needs to be someone with no parliamentary future. So hence my tip months ago of Ken Clarke. He would pull in the tory rebels and thus make up the numbers, but would Labour back him? Or, rather, would Corbyn back him? Again, hmmm.
John Bercow is a very interesting idea. He'd love it! It might fuel the anti-establishment Brexit meme. He would be a hate figure for evermore amongst Brexiteers. The idea is delicious but probably quite incendiary. It has some plausibility though. I think he'd get the backing of the remainer coalition.
Getting all the opposition to agree to one compromise figure is going to be extremely hard. But it might be what's needed to ensure No Deal Brexit is thrown out.
And then?
Whooopeeeee! We have got beyond 31st October without Brexit having happened. Hahahahahaha! Take that, Boris!
So? You have achieved what, exactly? (Other than an ongoing cost of a billion a month, of course.)
The Remainer Coup will have secured nothing positive. No progress towards Brexit being delivered. Nothing to show the EU - just beholding to them for yet ANOTHER extension. Nothing to show the 17.4m voters. Or the even bigger number who sit back, looking askance that you have no plan as to what you are doing next.
But the Remainer Coup will own every piece of bad news. Every job loss, every investment decision put on hold. All without a democratic mandate for its actions.
In short, it will have taken hold of the ticking parcel. But you've taken Boris's chair way. So he won't be there when it goes off.
BOOOOOOOOM.
Now what?
Shouldn't the HoC first vote on Johnson's "deal" (if he gets one) beforehand?
It's what the majority in this country now wish for. Kick the whole stupid idea into touch. It was always a mad obsessive misplaced cult of the Tory party which Cameron idiotically attempted to resolve. To the great cost of this nation.
You had your chance of Brexit. It was Mrs May's deal. When the Brexiteers like Johnson and Rees-Mogg refused to back it, Brexit died. So don't blame remainers.
Yep and hardly a solid court-standard argument in the fantastically peer reviewed, erm, Mail on Sunday.
https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/resources/images/9804785.png
Remarkably (or not), the chap is a member of the Overview and Scrutiny committee of St Helens Council.
"Cllr Smith has since apologised for taking the leaflets.
He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that he removed two Labour leaflets from two properties that were in “poor condition” before pushing his own through the letterbox."
I agree though that May’s deal was perfectly acceptable, and am equally hacked off with both the ERG and labour leavers for failing to compromise.
Genuine question - if it (May’s deal) came back what do you think the Caroline Flints of the world would do? I’m guessing vote against given Boris’ complete unwillingness to reach out...
Quite sure October will be amongst the most fraught political months we've ever seen.
On a happier note, I'll shortly peruse the F1 markets to see if anything leaps out.
What ought such a coalition do; extend the Brexit deadline, possibly re-introduce May's deal and tell the DUP to go whatsit itself, sort out the fall-out from the Windrush affair and the (similar0 problems EU citizens living here have, and, perhaps, given that it is a coalition, introduce STV for, perhaps as a first step, Local Government elections
Could try and be positive towards Iran, too, and get Mrs Ratcliffe and the other prisoners home.
It was a binary decision, leave or remain. Leave won.
And if the tories and Labour can only get enough support to win 170 and 150 MPs then that is "the will of the people"
Ferrari's straight line speed will be advantageous throughout the race.
Edit
I think I misread your comment.
One of our Parliamentary problems is down to Churchill. When the House was bombed during WWII and needed rebuilding it was suggested that instead of the confrontational arrangement we had before, and have now, with the sheep on one side and the goats the other, the place should be rebuilt as a semi-circle, with everyone facing the Speaker. As happens in most other legislatures.
Churchill was, apparently, dead against the idea and insisted on the rebuild being in the traditional form.
Also it looks like no papers have run with the potential Royal scandal that’s been circulating online (not Andrew), so that probably couldn’t be stood up either.
EFTA would come closest to respecting the referendum result. No Deal does not and will therefore be opposed tooth and nail
Moreover, since if he is to be trusted he is committing to a policy the Liberal Democrats have ruled out, they would struggle to explain their support of him to their supporters.
Finally, putting a 71 year old extremist in power, even temporarily, would immediately lose the Liberal Democrats any Tory Remainers who have drifted to them faute de mieux, plus of course all the Jewish votes they are allegedly piling up in London.
Corbyn is always the problem with an alternative government. Boris Johnson with a beard and less brain. But because he is also stubborn he won't let another figure take power.
This is why I think a VONC won't be put forward. It would lead to an election which the opposition are foolishly trying to avoid.
Any government should be governing for the 68M, not 17M.
Clearly the 48% (likely to be more) of Remainers won't.
What if the reaction of Leavers is contempt for the bumbling fool who never won a vote during the shortest ever premiership? I think it far from guaranteed that the Tories would benefit.
I reckon a Remain Alliance govt would last until spring.
Not that that ended particularly well...
In any case, that is a misunderstanding of the comment, I think. There are not 68m voters in the UK anyway.
I go on about this but I reckon Sylvia Hermon would be ideal: She's not in any of the factions or parties, she voted for the WA every time (which makes it easier to sell the operation as stopping No Deal not stopping Brexit), and she has a great backstory about bringing people together for peace etc etc. I think she'd be a much better temporary figurehead than Bercow, who comes over as much too pleased with himself for a job like this.
That said, better to wait a bit until the deadline gets closer, Boris has had to put his "renegotiation" cards on the table, and it feels more like a proper emergency.
Betting PostF1: still need to check the article, but put a tiny sum on Vettel to lead lap 1 on Betfair (around 5.8 or 5.9 right now).
Surprised he was down to 4 on Ladbrokes, so that's rather nicer. Off-chance that the slipstream and good start could see him pass Leclerc early on.
Because if not the same problems apply.
What happens if Boris calls his own VoNC / VoC? He says "If you want to stop No Deal, vote me out"
Can only the Leader of the Opposition call a VoNC?
What will be the impact on the Labour vote when it becomes ever more obvious that Corbyn is trying to engineer No Deal, for his own Party's benefit?
Can Swinson sustain the "No Corbyn" argument if there is a chance No Deal can be stopped?
I remain yours, continually confused
John Wheatley
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/russia-pre-race-2019.html
If Corbyn can say, OK, I know other parties have reservations about me but I could support X, then X becomes PM whether of a GoNAfaE or a GNU, that person is then a shoo-in for next Labour leader. So they move into Number 10, Corbyn resigns, Team Corbyn has just regenerated with another 10 years in charge of Labour, and also better propects for the GE.
Heck, we could even go back to Balfour's education Act if you wish.
Where was your howling outrage when Tony Blair won a majority of 66 on 35.2% of the vote from 9.5m voters? And then went on to hand over the baton to Gordon Brown - without a sniff of involvement of democracy.
Or is it just a case of It's OK If It's Labour?
Might be harder to sell to the various independents though. Perhaps Thornberry and a second referendum would be acceptable.
A referendum and GE the same day would also be interesting. The six months referendum period could be much shorter now, as I think it fair to say the issues have been adequately discussed!
Unfortunately partly because our system rewards those who can consolidate their base and reach out just a little beyond it, politicians reward their own followers and ignore the rest. That's been true of pretty well every British government in history. Oddly, I would argue the most extreme example was Blair, although he concealed it expertly behind a facade of platitudes.
The exception would arguably have been the Coalition, but unfortunately while most of their ideas looked excellent in paper they have proven utterly disastrous in practice (an exception being tuition fees, which didn't even look good on paper).
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.153697106
That is why no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party that inflicted those bitter experiences on me. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
https://tidesofhistory.wordpress.com/2018/07/03/lower-than-vermin-the-story-of-bevans-quote-that-lives-on/
Oh no, that's what we've got now...
And tends to support my point rather than yours...
It's all such a mess. If Labour didn't have such a toxic leader they would already be PM and we wouldn't have to worry about details such as this.
People are concentrating, quite rightly, on who would be PM in a scenario but who do you make Chancellor and Foreign Secretary is just as important. Chancellor is important because we were due a budget which could be delayed until the new year but would a budget proposed by John McDonnell contain a number of controversial items from their manifesto which could push the other parties to vote it down. Foreign/Brexit Secretary is also important for the management of the relationship with the EU during the election.
remember that even after the election is called cabinet ministers still keep their positions even after Parliament is dissolved and have quite a bit of power. During the 2010 election Alistair Darling agreed to join the first bailouts of Greece (which George Osbourne quickly got us out of).
So quite a difference. What about middle class Labour voters for example?
Indeed Bevan described the Tory party as lower than vermin, not Tory voters.
It gives the impression that they are frightened of a BorisDeal.