I don’t actually disagree, where I disagree is that it should be used to colour everything he does in the future. Seems to be at odds with how people who break the law are to be treated by people who label themselves as progressives.
The problem is that there is no evidence it is not ongoing. An affair - whether it is Paddy Ashdown or John Major - is obviously a betrayal and a character flaw but it can be a one off and is not necessarily symptomatic. Johnson's indiscretions seem to me to be so common, continous and long standing that they do, I believe, indicate a deep seated dishonesty that is reflected across many, if not all, aspects of his life and career.
It is a refreshingly old fashioned view for progressives to take, so really I shouldn’t be knocking it
That having multiple relationships, other than in an open contest, involves dishonesty strikes me as a matter of fact, rather than fashion.
Marking someone as ‘bad’ and seeing everything through that prism is what I was referring to as old fashioned
If someone is incapable of shame they are incapable of self improvement. Boris is one of those. Anyone can stray, but most of those who do can find their own way back. Some people are just to damaged to manage that. Compare with psychopathy, where someone is incapable of empathy. Such people cannot be encouraged to see the errors of their ways, because they don't see them as errors. There's only things they can get away with and things they can't. The great majority of people aren't like that, but they /do/ exist. Boris seems to be one of those people.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
7. Johnson [possibly] wins a landslide majority on 35% of the vote and the rule of law in Britain is forever damaged beyond repair.
It's an extraordinarily dangerous situation for the country.
Quite.
Just when you think things have hit rock bottom, the government finds a new trapdoor.
It isn't. We don't know what he'll do. I doubt that he knows.
He says he won't send the letter, but that doesn't help much because he lies all the time. Previously he said he'd abide by the law, so unless he's planning to resign at least one of his statements was a lie.
I have always taken it that is what the course of action will be ie not signing, i resign
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I don't think so. 1. Government is VoNCed. 2. HMQ asks Corbyn to form Government. After the Prorogation fiasco, she will play a straight bat. Otherwise, the monarchy will forever be tainted as Tory. 3. Corbyn asks HoC [ no actual need ] to allow him to send letter of extension [ only a formality ] 4. Corbyn informs HMQ that he cannot form a government in the required days after having tried. 5. Recommends GE. 6. GE takes place after 1st November.
Boris Johnson is under no obligation to resign until it looks likely that an alternative government commanding the confidence of the Commons can be formed. So your plan doesn’t work.
What if he did ? The Right believe that anyone sending the letter will be damaged. He may recommend Corbyn or no one. HMQ will still ask for Corbyn after the Prorogation fiasco.
Deadline passes - court rules that Boris must write a letter - still requires a VONC to oust him.
MPs oust Boris - who still won’t stand down until MPs come up with an alternative.
Jezza won’t accept a non Jezza option.
LDs won’t support Jezza.
It’s a bluff worth calling for Boris.
LDs are not in sufficient numbers to make a difference. Corbyn led govt only works with rebel Tories / CUK etc
They wouldn't want to be tainted with putting Corbyn into Downing Street - even for a matter of hours.
Swinson won't blink.
And I just don't see Corbyn stepping aside.
There is ample time for parliament to see the deal that is brought back before making their next move.
I think the truth is that remainer MPs don't want to be seen to vote down a chance for a deal...again.
Which means the LD talk of "revoke" is also a lie. They get a chance to revoke either: by winning outright or, more realistically getting minority Labour government. Otherwise, Revoke is not possible. Basically, it is a stunt.
Which means the LD talk of "revoke" is also a lie. They get a chance to revoke either: by winning outright or, more realistically getting minority Labour government. Otherwise, Revoke is not possible. Basically, it is a stunt.
Generally when you make a policy it's premised on you winning the election
Am I correct that if the LDs and the some of the 21 ex Tories abstain, Corbyn can still be VoCed for, say, 1 day ?
Tories plus DUP = 298 Labour plus SNP plus plaid and green = 287
Indies split generally slightly against Corbyn Change would abstain or vote against
I expect Bercow's final act as Speaker will be to allow the Sinn Fein delegation to vote - without swearing the Qath.
It's not principally the oath that they object to - it's the very concept of the Westminster Parliament being the place that they have been elected to. There are no circumstances under which Sinn Fein vote in the House of Commons.
1. No deal will be struck with the EU between now and the end of October. It is not in Johnson’s interest to do so now. A GE is coming one way or another, and he would rather run a “they’re blocking Brexit” campaign than a “I delivered a deal very similar to May’s” campaign. The latter could cause substantial BXP leakage.
2. If matters haven’t come to a head before the October summit (I.e, no VONC and alternative government put in power), the government will resign rather than refuse to send the letter. It seems to me that all this talk of Boris refusing to comply and going to prison or being severely penalised is fanciful. He does not have the fervour of a Brexit martyr. He will not stake his own freedom and reputation (or what is left of it) on delivering Brexit by October 31. He will resign, and force Corbyn (or whoever leads an alternative government) to send the letter. The EU will give an extension until the end of the year. I suspect they might make a GE a condition of the extension.
3. The alternative government will be time limited (no matter whether the EU asks for a GE or not). The coalition of MPs that make up such a government will be unstable and there will be too many competing interests to get anything done other than sending the letter.
4. The GE will be held in November. I am not brave enough to predict the result. On one hand there may be a significant Boris backlash in Scotland and the South. On the other, there could be a substantial backlash against the other parties for writing the ‘surrender letter’.
It isn't. We don't know what he'll do. I doubt that he knows.
He says he won't send the letter, but that doesn't help much because he lies all the time. Previously he said he'd abide by the law, so unless he's planning to resign at least one of his statements was a lie.
My view is he will not send the letter. He accepts he will be removed but shortly thereafter there will have to be an election. Those supporting Corbyn except the SNP, PC, Lucas will only support him for just "days". Johnson will go into the GE campaign promising Leave "immediately" unless the EU agrees his deal within 30 days. I think he can sell this to his mob. Unlike May and traditional Conservatives, he will match Corbyn in spending. Labour Brexiteers may even like it.
Am I correct that if the LDs and the some of the 21 ex Tories abstain, Corbyn can still be VoCed for, say, 1 day ?
Tories plus DUP = 298 Labour plus SNP plus plaid and green = 287
Indies split generally slightly against Corbyn Change would abstain or vote against
Then, if the expelled Tories vote Corbyn in for 1 day or even a week, LD votes are not necessary. Some of the wind from the LD sail will also abate.
Well yes, I mean if we are going to propose things that wont happen, sure, but even then, let's imagine the following......
Add the 21 to Corbyn = 308. Now take off John Mann and Kate Hoey, mann would be against, hoey abstains we h e 299 vs 306. 5 change vote no 304 v 306, indies split about 4 more no than yes, he loses by 2
Clarke and Bebb may vote for Corbyn and the likes of Greening, Sandbach & Grieve could abstain.
1. No deal will be struck with the EU between now and the end of October. It is not in Johnson’s interest to do so now. A GE is coming one way or another, and he would rather run a “they’re blocking Brexit” campaign than a “I delivered a deal very similar to May’s” campaign. The latter could cause substantial BXP leakage.
2. If matters haven’t come to a head before the October summit (I.e, no VONC and alternative government put in power), the government will resign rather than refuse to send the letter. It seems to me that all this talk of Boris refusing to comply and going to prison or being severely penalised is fanciful. He does not have the fervour of a Brexit martyr. He will not stake his own freedom and reputation (or what is left of it) on delivering Brexit by October 31. He will resign, and force Corbyn (or whoever leads an alternative government) to send the letter. The EU will give an extension until the end of the year. I suspect they might make a GE a condition of the extension.
3. The alternative government will be time limited (no matter whether the EU asks for a GE or not). The coalition of MPs that make up such a government will be unstable and there will be too many competing interests to get anything done other than sending the letter.
4. The GE will be held in November. I am not brave enough to predict the result. On one hand there may be a significant Boris backlash in Scotland and the South. On the other, there could be a substantial backlash against the other parties for writing the ‘surrender letter’.
What if the EU makes a referendum, rather than an election, the condition of an extension ?
It's perfectly possible, and would make life hugely easier for Corbyn.
Am I correct that if the LDs and the some of the 21 ex Tories abstain, Corbyn can still be VoCed for, say, 1 day ?
Tories plus DUP = 298 Labour plus SNP plus plaid and green = 287
Indies split generally slightly against Corbyn Change would abstain or vote against
Then, if the expelled Tories vote Corbyn in for 1 day or even a week, LD votes are not necessary. Some of the wind from the LD sail will also abate.
Well yes, I mean if we are going to propose things that wont happen, sure, but even then, let's imagine the following......
Add the 21 to Corbyn = 308. Now take off John Mann and Kate Hoey, mann would be against, hoey abstains we h e 299 vs 306. 5 change vote no 304 v 306, indies split about 4 more no than yes, he loses by 2
Clarke and Bebb may vote for Corbyn and the likes of Greening, Sandbach & Grieve could abstain.
The calculation above assumes all 21 vote for him and LDs abstain, which was the proposal being discussed
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
1. No deal will be struck with the EU between now and the end of October. It is not in Johnson’s interest to do so now. A GE is coming one way or another, and he would rather run a “they’re blocking Brexit” campaign than a “I delivered a deal very similar to May’s” campaign. The latter could cause substantial BXP leakage.
2. If matters haven’t come to a head before the October summit (I.e, no VONC and alternative government put in power), the government will resign rather than refuse to send the letter. It seems to me that all this talk of Boris refusing to comply and going to prison or being severely penalised is fanciful. He does not have the fervour of a Brexit martyr. He will not stake his own freedom and reputation (or what is left of it) on delivering Brexit by October 31. He will resign, and force Corbyn (or whoever leads an alternative government) to send the letter. The EU will give an extension until the end of the year. I suspect they might make a GE a condition of the extension.
3. The alternative government will be time limited (no matter whether the EU asks for a GE or not). The coalition of MPs that make up such a government will be unstable and there will be too many competing interests to get anything done other than sending the letter.
4. The GE will be held in November. I am not brave enough to predict the result. On one hand there may be a significant Boris backlash in Scotland and the South. On the other, there could be a substantial backlash against the other parties for writing the ‘surrender letter’.
What if the EU made a referendum, rather than an election, the condition of an extension ?
It's perfectly possible.
It’s possible, though I think unlikely for a couple of reasons:
1. The EU are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. In many ways a narrow remain victory in the referendum wouldn’t solve the problem in the medium term - there’ll be plenty in Britain who will continue to back Brexit and UK politics will be significantly polarised for decades to come. This won’t make the UK a reliable partner in decisions moving forward.
2. Referendum or no, there’ll be a general election anyway. Parliament is too well hung for there not to be a GE at some point. My view is that the EU would rather see what happens in a GE than go down the referendum + GE route, which would extend the uncertainty.
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
What if the EU makes a referendum, rather than an election, the condition of an extension ?
It's perfectly possible, and would make life hugely easier for Corbyn.
Generally they've been reluctant to be seen forcing Britain down a particular path, but they might say, "give us an actionable plan", which could have the effect of prodding the GNU into life.
4. The GE will be held in November. I am not brave enough to predict the result. On one hand there may be a significant Boris backlash in Scotland and the South. On the other, there could be a substantial backlash against the other parties for writing the ‘surrender letter’.
I think the timetable is very tight for a November election. The last Thursday in November is the 28th. Five weeks prior to that is the 24th October.
If Johnson fails to send the letter on the 19th, the choreography of replacing him, requesting the extension, implementing the extension into statute, etc, would need to be completed very quickly, but I think the earliest there could be a no confidence vote is the 22nd, as it would have to be tabled on the Monday 21st.
So I would assume that the earliest we could have an election is December 5th, under the scenario that Johnson does not voluntarily extend Article 50 and is not defenestrated ahead of the EU summit.
<<It’s possible, though I think unlikely for a couple of reasons:
1. The EU are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. In many ways a narrow remain victory in the referendum wouldn’t solve the problem in the medium term - there’ll be plenty in Britain who will continue to back Brexit and UK politics will be significantly polarised for decades to come. This won’t make the UK a reliable partner in decisions moving forward.
2. Referendum or no, there’ll be a general election anyway. Parliament is too well hung for there not to be a GE at some point. My view is that the EU would rather see what happens in a GE than go down the referendum + GE route, which would extend the uncertainty>>
The thing is, if I were the EU, I would follow the logic of a British Remainer, as we know that a reasonably settled decision for Britain staying the EU, at least in the short-term, serves the EU's economic interest best.
Following that logic, and knowing that the EU has kept a very careful eye on developments here, they would know that Remainers much more fancy their chances with a referendum, on current polling, than the unpredictable variables of a Liberal-Labour pact, which doesn't look promising at all at the moment, especially given the positions of both Swinson and some of the Labour high command.
A possible 54:46, set against an electoral majority of anti-Brexit voters that may actually return the Tories again. If I was the EU I would add in the condition of a referendum, not an election.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
I don't think that's extraordinary at all. We're not talking about a game here.
No, but considering changes to other sentencing, it's a not often-discussed point of interest that it's stayed at that level.
The shocking thing is that we're talking about the possibility of a prime minister refusing to obey statute law on a matter of vital national importance.
Incidentally, I don't believe for a moment that the rhetoric about dying in a ditch should be taken seriously. I think Johnson would run a mile if he thought there were any real possibility he'd be deprived of his liberty or a significant amount of cash.
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
I don't think that's extraordinary at all. We're not talking about a game here.
No, but considering changes to other sentencing, it's a not often-discussed point of interest that it's stayed at that level.
The shocking thing is that we're talking about the possibility of a prime minister refusing to obey statute law on a matter of vital national importance.
Incidentally, I don't believe for a moment that the rhetoric about dying in a ditch should be taken seriously. I think Johnson would run a mile if he thought there were any real possibility he'd be deprived of his liberty or a significant amount of cash.
Interesting that, in Scotland, the Tories are losing more voters to the Lib Dems than to the Brexit Party.
Not really surprising. Brexit bampotting is a very niche sport north of the border.
There is a huge overlap between SCon and SLD support: many of their voters will quite happily switch, given the right circumstances. Brexit, and Davidson’s resignation, are just such circumstances.
Interesting that, in Scotland, the Tories are losing more voters to the Lib Dems than to the Brexit Party.
Not really surprising. Brexit bampotting is a very niche sport north of the border.
There is a huge overlap between SCon and SLD support: many of their voters will quite happily switch, given the right circumstances. Brexit, and Davidson’s resignation, are just such circumstances.
That and if they were likely to go to the SNP they would have done in 2017 or 2015
8 bets, stake £16, return £36. That’s a nice bottle of wine profit from what wasn’t supposed to be a serious day’s betting.
Well done - a good day at the office.
My Verstappen FTW was - Red Bull forgot to turn up the engine or something.
They turned up the wrong car. Albon Top 6 would have been the bet to be on, as would Bottas each way for the win.
My only other bet would have been Hamilton FTW, which obviously in hindsight would have won. That or Vettel first lap ; but that would have been me copying Morris for the first time ever.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
If Parliament has been dissolved for an election before October 19th I'm not even sure that the Government would be in contravention of the Benn Act, as I believe it only calls for the PM to agree an extension to a date other than 31st January if the House of Commons votes for it, which it won't be able to do if it has been dissolved for an election.
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
If Parliament has been dissolved for an election before October 19th I'm not even sure that the Government would be in contravention of the Benn Act, as I believe it only calls for the PM to agree an extension to a date other than 31st January if the House of Commons votes for it, which it won't be able to do if it has been dissolved for an election.
That is true. I do think it's one of Cummings' many plots. I do expect that if there was a successful VoNC then the Lib Dems would be forced into voting for JC. They could then argue 'JC and an extension or an election and No-Deal'.
8 bets, stake £16, return £36. That’s a nice bottle of wine profit from what wasn’t supposed to be a serious day’s betting.
Well done - a good day at the office.
My Verstappen FTW was - Red Bull forgot to turn up the engine or something.
They turned up the wrong car. Albon Top 6 would have been the bet to be on, as would Bottas each way for the win.
My only other bet would have been Hamilton FTW, which obviously in hindsight would have won. That or Vettel first lap ; but that would have been me copying Morris for the first time ever.
My thinking on the Mercedes bets was exactly as it played out - that the strategy left a big window when a safety car or VSC would give the silver cars a free pit stop.
Vettel first lap was almost a carbon copy of what Mercedes did last year - the very long run to the first corner gives the guy in third a huge advantage with the tow.
Maybe I should actually have put decent bets down. Ho hum.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
But there can be no affirmative Vote of Confidence in a Government that has not yet been formed.
They vote competence in an individual to be able to form a government
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
But there can be no affirmative Vote of Confidence in a Government that has not yet been formed.
They vote competence in an individual to be able to form a government
they only need to do so for long enough to get the extension.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
But there can be no affirmative Vote of Confidence in a Government that has not yet been formed.
They vote competence in an individual to be able to form a government
I did see a brief discussion about what actual sanction could be placed on the PM for not sending the letter. Most seemed ridiculous it has to be said but I suppose there would be time for parliament to VoNC the government as 'punishment'.
Which would actually be even better than him resigning.
You misunderstand. I suggest the following order:
1 vote of no confidence 2 scramble for a replacement PM proves unsuccessful 3 Boris Johnson refuses to send letter 4 14 days expires, and a general election is called automatically 5 Boris Johnson is ordered to send the letter by the courts 6 in the heat of an election campaign, Boris Johnson defies the courts
If Parliament has been dissolved for an election before October 19th I'm not even sure that the Government would be in contravention of the Benn Act, as I believe it only calls for the PM to agree an extension to a date other than 31st January if the House of Commons votes for it, which it won't be able to do if it has been dissolved for an election.
It's "unless it votes against it", not the other way round.
Do we know what the actual punishment would be if boris didnt send the letter. He breaks the law, but do we have any idea what that would lead to?
Depending on what happens, the following are possible:
Contempt of Parliament Contempt of Court Misconduct in a public office
There may be others.
The two contempts carry a fine and/or up to six months imprisonment, but extraordinarily, misconduct in a public office carries up to life imprisonment.
I don't think that's extraordinary at all. We're not talking about a game here.
No, but considering changes to other sentencing, it's a not often-discussed point of interest that it's stayed at that level.
The shocking thing is that we're talking about the possibility of a prime minister refusing to obey statute law on a matter of vital national importance.
Incidentally, I don't believe for a moment that the rhetoric about dying in a ditch should be taken seriously. I think Johnson would run a mile if he thought there were any real possibility he'd be deprived of his liberty or a significant amount of cash.
Interesting that, in Scotland, the Tories are losing more voters to the Lib Dems than to the Brexit Party.
2017 was the high water mark of LibDem-SCon tactical voting in the North-east and also in places like Edinburgh, so part of this is reversion to the mean
Am I the only one considering emigrating? UK politics is broken, not to mention the fact it is a complete joke... But then again, US politics isn't any better, just look at this site... https://www.politic-ed.com
Am I the only one considering emigrating? UK politics is broken, not to mention the fact it is a complete joke... But then again, US politics isn't any better, just look at this site... https://www.politic-ed.com
My wife is determined that we will move to Ireland and Austria has recently passed a law granting me citizenship.
Truly Terrifying stuff. History will forgive a no-deal Brexit economic catastrophe, the break-up and dissolution of the United Kingdom after 300 years, and terminal blows to its constitutional settlement, ofcourse.
Comments
Some people are just to damaged to manage that. Compare with psychopathy, where someone is incapable of empathy. Such people cannot be encouraged to see the errors of their ways, because they don't see them as errors. There's only things they can get away with and things they can't.
The great majority of people aren't like that, but they /do/ exist. Boris seems to be one of those people.
Just when you think things have hit rock bottom, the government finds a new trapdoor.
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office
1. No deal will be struck with the EU between now and the end of October. It is not in Johnson’s interest to do so now. A GE is coming one way or another, and he would rather run a “they’re blocking Brexit” campaign than a “I delivered a deal very similar to May’s” campaign. The latter could cause substantial BXP leakage.
2. If matters haven’t come to a head before the October summit (I.e, no VONC and alternative government put in power), the government will resign rather than refuse to send the letter. It seems to me that all this talk of Boris refusing to comply and going to prison or being severely penalised is fanciful. He does not have the fervour of a Brexit martyr. He will not stake his own freedom and reputation (or what is left of it) on delivering Brexit by October 31. He will resign, and force Corbyn (or whoever leads an alternative government) to send the letter. The EU will give an extension until the end of the year. I suspect they might make a GE a condition of the extension.
3. The alternative government will be time limited (no matter whether the EU asks for a GE or not). The coalition of MPs that make up such a government will be unstable and there will be too many competing interests to get anything done other than sending the letter.
4. The GE will be held in November. I am not brave enough to predict the result. On one hand there may be a significant Boris backlash in Scotland and the South. On the other, there could be a substantial backlash against the other parties for writing the ‘surrender letter’.
But if that is the best I can say about our PM, this country has sunk a very long way.
Anyway, the ironing beckons...
Johnson will go into the GE campaign promising Leave "immediately" unless the EU agrees his deal within 30 days. I think he can sell this to his mob. Unlike May and traditional Conservatives, he will match Corbyn in spending. Labour Brexiteers may even like it.
It's perfectly possible, and would make life hugely easier for Corbyn.
1. The EU are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. In many ways a narrow remain victory in the referendum wouldn’t solve the problem in the medium term - there’ll be plenty in Britain who will continue to back Brexit and UK politics will be significantly polarised for decades to come. This won’t make the UK a reliable partner in decisions moving forward.
2. Referendum or no, there’ll be a general election anyway. Parliament is too well hung for there not to be a GE at some point. My view is that the EU would rather see what happens in a GE than go down the referendum + GE route, which would extend the uncertainty.
If Johnson fails to send the letter on the 19th, the choreography of replacing him, requesting the extension, implementing the extension into statute, etc, would need to be completed very quickly, but I think the earliest there could be a no confidence vote is the 22nd, as it would have to be tabled on the Monday 21st.
So I would assume that the earliest we could have an election is December 5th, under the scenario that Johnson does not voluntarily extend Article 50 and is not defenestrated ahead of the EU summit.
SNP 43% (+6)
Con 20% (-9)
Lab 16% (-12)
LD 12% (+5)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o91qppx58r/TheTimes_190903_ScotlandVI_Trackers_ww.pdf
1. The EU are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. In many ways a narrow remain victory in the referendum wouldn’t solve the problem in the medium term - there’ll be plenty in Britain who will continue to back Brexit and UK politics will be significantly polarised for decades to come. This won’t make the UK a reliable partner in decisions moving forward.
2. Referendum or no, there’ll be a general election anyway. Parliament is too well hung for there not to be a GE at some point. My view is that the EU would rather see what happens in a GE than go down the referendum + GE route, which would extend the uncertainty>>
The thing is, if I were the EU, I would follow the logic of a British Remainer, as we know that a reasonably settled decision for Britain staying the EU, at least in the short-term, serves the EU's economic interest best.
Following that logic, and knowing that the EU has kept a very careful eye on developments here, they would know that Remainers much more fancy their chances with a referendum, on current polling, than the unpredictable variables of a Liberal-Labour pact, which doesn't look promising at all at the moment, especially given the positions of both Swinson and some of the Labour high command.
A possible 54:46, set against an electoral majority of anti-Brexit voters that may actually return the Tories again.
If I was the EU I would add in the condition of a referendum, not an election.
https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona/status/1178234883044511744
“Random F1 bets, all fun bets for a pound or two. BF Ex prices.
“Winner: Hamilton, 4
“Winner, Bottas, 32
“Lead first lap: Vettel, 6
“Top6: Verstappen, LAY 1.22
“Top10: Albon, 1.55
“Safety car: NO SC, 2.66
“Classified drivers: Under17,5, 1.66
“Classified: Vettel, LAY 1.21
8 bets, stake £16, return £36. That’s a nice bottle of wine profit from what wasn’t supposed to be a serious day’s betting.
Incidentally, I don't believe for a moment that the rhetoric about dying in a ditch should be taken seriously. I think Johnson would run a mile if he thought there were any real possibility he'd be deprived of his liberty or a significant amount of cash.
My Verstappen FTW was
There is a huge overlap between SCon and SLD support: many of their voters will quite happily switch, given the right circumstances. Brexit, and Davidson’s resignation, are just such circumstances.
F1: entertaining race.
Donald Trump is selling out the Fourth Amendment to the British
https://prestonbyrne.com/2019/09/28/trump_4a_/
Vettel first lap was almost a carbon copy of what Mercedes did last year - the very long run to the first corner gives the guy in third a huge advantage with the tow.
Maybe I should actually have put decent bets down. Ho hum.
UK politics is broken, not to mention the fact it is a complete joke...
But then again, US politics isn't any better, just look at this site...
https://www.politic-ed.com