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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited September 2019
    FF43 said:

    The word Back in that slogan is interesting. "Take Back Control" implies something was stolen from you. Same with the Again in "Make America Great Again". "Take Control" would be a more positive and proactive message.

    According to legend 'Take Control' was the original slogan.

    Then 'Dom', after 48 hours staring intently at it written on the wall, no food, no drink except the purest Finnish vodka, and clad only in boxers and singlet, suddenly went "Oh fuck yeah!" and leapt to his feet. He ran to the wall and feverishly scribbled "Back" on the end.

    "Take Control Back"

    He made as if to leave the room but something stopped him. "Fuck, no!" he went, and he settled in for another stint. Same deal, 48 hours, intense concentration, no food, just Finnish vodka, boxers, singlet - before the final blinding insight. He could move a word and that would nail it. TAKE BACK CONTROL!

    No exclamation this time, just a quiet nod of satisfaction.

    And the rest, of course, is history.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    As I said, that is the game of chicken we are currently playing.
  • Scott_P said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The Leave position may be true in the longer term and they are prepared to suffer the short term pain for it.

    They are not prepared to suffer, they don't think there will be any short term pain.
    There will be merely a few bumps in the road. But the threat to the EU is such that they will be forced to make concessions to the UK.

    Or something like that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Mr. Indyref2, cunningly, I have access to Sky F1.

    The pay TV deal remains bloody stupid, though.

    Starting to rain now in Sochi, as the F2 qualifying session starts.

    Forecast to be quite a bit of rain tomorrow, so we may end up with a mess of a qualifying session in F1 too.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The word Back in that slogan is interesting. "Take Back Control" implies something was stolen from you. Same with the Again in "Make America Great Again". "Take Control" would be a more positive and proactive message.

    According to legend 'Take Control' was the original slogan.

    Then 'Dom', after 48 hours staring intently at it written on the wall, no food, no drink except the purest Finnish vodka, and clad only in boxers and singlet, suddenly went "Oh fuck yeah!" and leapt to his feet. He ran to the wall and feverishly scribbled "Back" on the end.

    "Take Control Back"

    He made as if to leave the room but something stopped him. "Fuck, no!" he went, and he settled in for another stint. Same deal, 48 hours, intense concentration, no food, just Finnish vodka, boxers, singlet - before the final blinding insight. He could move a word and that would nail it. TAKE BACK CONTROL!

    No exclamation this time, just a quiet nod of satisfaction.

    And the rest, of course, is history.
    if you look at the initial posters etc it did say 'Take Control' how exactly the 'back' came into it is probably urban myth
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    malcolmg said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
    After Brexit we will gather annually to sing the Stan Boardman classic 'ay ay ippy the Germans bombed our chippy' in the smoking ruins of London
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Scott_P said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The Leave position may be true in the longer term and they are prepared to suffer the short term pain for it.

    They are not prepared to suffer, they don't think there will be any short term pain.
    the currency exchanges/stock markets will quickly deprive them of that idea, especially running upto a no-deal if it's obvious for a week or so before
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    OK. If it makes a difference, then let Corbyn write the extension letter.
  • Mr. Sandpit, might be a chance of wet third practice?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    This might only be relevant if the election is soon. And FTPA + minority government does point towards going full term, because there will always be a blocking minority that doesn’t currently think an election will be to its advantage.

    I can see a plausible path to an election where Corbyn is installed ahead of 31 Oct but then there are the numbers to NC him soon after the extension is granted... but Brexit will no doubt continue to be an all-consuming crisis, so will it ever really be the right time? More likely another longer extension in order to legislate for a further referendum, and no election til it’s done, by which point who will care who sent a letter on 19 October 2019?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Lib Dems as usual holding sanity back
    I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
  • malcolmg said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
    I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Scott_P said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The Leave position may be true in the longer term and they are prepared to suffer the short term pain for it.

    They are not prepared to suffer, they don't think there will be any short term pain.
    There will be merely a few bumps in the road. But the threat to the EU is such that they will be forced to make concessions to the UK.

    Or something like that.
    That’s where it’s sold as painless to the domestic audience, and Armageddon for EU.

    And people believe it?

    Anyone who still understands No Deal to be a short bit of turbulence between them and the sunlit uplands of freedom need the leave politicians, the ones they listen to, to explain the medium and longer term truth of failure to leave EU with a deal.

    If those politicians don’t do this, yes they are being deceptive, exploiting the situation, exploiting the division where one side doesn’t listen to the other, and so committing an unpatriotic crime against this nation. Because it goes beyond mere politics, this is not the way politicians in a democracy should behave.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
    If that is the case, why hasn't HMG forwarded their suggested amendments to the text of the WA to enable that outcome?
    I said without the Withdrawal Agreement. He wants to bypass it entirely and thinks the EU will be so afraid of the consequences of No Deal, that they will ensure there are no consequences.
    Sorry - I must have translated that in my head to "without the backstop".

    But it still makes no sense. How do you have a withdrawal agreement without a Withdrawal Agreement?!
    My understanding would be:

    Leave the EU officially
    Pay exit bill
    Dont send any UK officials/MEPs to EU
    Other arrangements stay as they were when we were in EU incl FOM and ECJ
    Negotiate FTA from there within 2 years

    It would kind of take us back in time to where the UK wanted to be before we lost the timetabling issue (bar having paid the exit bill).

    Yes obviously it needs a codified document to achieve it, but it is scrapping a different transition period and replacing it with largely status quo, but Boris able to claim success for leaving the EU.
    Sorry. It does not work like that. If we do not exit by agreeing the WA before we leave, we will be leaving on WTO terms. And, I am sure, the EU will not even begin negotiations for a trade bill unless the 39bn or its equivalent at the time is paid or we agree to pay.
    What is impossible about the above? Am I missing something?

    There is give and take on all sides and without being a lawyer or having negotiated a trade deal it seems relatively straightforward.

    The UK loses Mays red lines, but gets the sequencing back on track and avoids disaster
    Boris gets to claim sucess on his only promise
    ERG dont get what they want at all, but have power in cabinet to negotiate the FTA
    EU lose out on sequencing but get the exit bill sorted and avoid no deal
    Labour still have opportunity to topple govt and negotiate SM/CU from the transition if and when the electoral mood is right.
    What happens with Irish border if no FTA agreed by end of transition? Therefore the backstop will be required.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    The generic drugs policy much derided here will be very popular.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
    No deal, no fried mars bars though
  • malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Lib Dems as usual holding sanity back
    I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
    No, it's naivety and inexperience on Swinson's part, prompted partly I guess by strident condemnation of Corbyn from the ChUK defectors. She should have left herself some wriggle room, since if we are staring down the barrel of no deal and it's either that or agreeing to let Corbyn (with the support of all the other opposition parties) take over for a couple of weeks to get the extension she will, I think, be forced to acquiesce in his appointment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Lib Dems as usual holding sanity back
    I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
    It's not really a reverse ferret by Sturgeon, more an expansion of her position. The chinless wonders in the UK Parliament still have, ridiculously*, full confidence in Johnson.

    * Given he's said he won't sign the letter.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Mr. Sandpit, might be a chance of wet third practice?

    I’m never particularly sure of anyone’s weather forecasts, but I’m seeing 75% chance for P3, and 66% chance for Q.

    https://www.bbc.com/weather/491422

    Personally I think I’ll hold off betting until I see the weather, as otherwise I’ll back the guy for pole who goes on to bin it in Q1.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah

    It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Haven’t his ratings gone up since he started as PM?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Everything is propaganda. You believe what you want to believe in and disparage what you don't.

    Not you personally. But people.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    The generic drugs policy much derided here will be very popular.
    That is true as will the nationalisations.

    Labour voters are more likely to stay at home than to switch. if there is bad weather in a winter GE low turnout could help the other parties.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Yep. Triggered.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited September 2019
    Tabman said:

    I despair. It's enough to make you want a no deal so the f******s have to deal with the consequences.

    There is something to be said for that. Perhaps the Opposition have messed up. Perhaps it would have been better to make Johnson & Co either own No Deal or chicken out of it of their own volition. As it is, he has cover to blame failing to get a Deal on the Benn Act.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    egg said:

    Tabman said:

    on topic:
    I'm not quite following your logic. From my simple position, leaving no deal on the table is supposed to mean we hold their feet to the fire because a no deal is worse than a deal.

    But the reality is that whilst a no deal is not good for the EU27, it's much, much worse for us. And they also offset the problems of no deal with the political and economic need to preserve SM and CU integrity (with the added advantage from EU27 position of having a test case of the world of s**t leaving the EU creates for the leaver).

    So I fail to see how a no deal an be a negotiating weapon.

    It’s exploring that. Trying to provoke leavers to explain your very point.
    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    egg said:

    Scott_P said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The Leave position may be true in the longer term and they are prepared to suffer the short term pain for it.

    They are not prepared to suffer, they don't think there will be any short term pain.
    There will be merely a few bumps in the road. But the threat to the EU is such that they will be forced to make concessions to the UK.

    Or something like that.
    That’s where it’s sold as painless to the domestic audience, and Armageddon for EU.

    And people believe it?

    Anyone who still understands No Deal to be a short bit of turbulence between them and the sunlit uplands of freedom need the leave politicians, the ones they listen to, to explain the medium and longer term truth of failure to leave EU with a deal.

    If those politicians don’t do this, yes they are being deceptive, exploiting the situation, exploiting the division where one side doesn’t listen to the other, and so committing an unpatriotic crime against this nation. Because it goes beyond mere politics, this is not the way politicians in a democracy should behave.
    What are the longer/medium truth of failure with no deal?

    I have never heard a pro-EU person, whether MP or expert explain them all i have heard are short term issues like Dover, etc.
  • spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    I think for Labour BMAE voters that is correct (though the Iraq war showed they were willing to vote LD). For WWC, it is less so. In Durham, Cumbria and Northumberland, there has been a c. 10% swing from Labour to Conservative from 2005 to 2017, which implies that effect is lessening.
  • O/T but did anyone notice the book launch Cummings was at last night? It was for 'Winning Against the Odds' by Stuart Wheeler, who - it is claimed - invented spreadbetting and founded IG Index back in the day.

    Presumably quite a few of us on this forum owe him a debt of gratitude (or maybe not!). The book looks like a reframing of his Eton-Oxford-Merchant Banking narrative to better fit the mores of the age (rebel against the establishment and all that) but he seems an interesting character, and a big player (it seems) in getting the Referendum over the line...
  • nichomar said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    .
    If that is the case, why hasn't HMG forwarded their suggested amendments to the text of the WA to enable that outcome?
    Sorry - I must have translated that in my head to "without the backstop".

    But it still makes no sense. How do you have a withdrawal agreement without a Withdrawal Agreement?!
    My understanding would be:

    Leave the EU officially
    Pay exit bill
    Dont send any UK officials/MEPs to EU
    Other arrangements stay as they were when we were in EU incl FOM and ECJ
    Negotiate FTA from there within 2 years

    It would kind of take us back in time to where the UK wanted to be before we lost the timetabling issue (bar having paid the exit bill).

    Yes obviously it needs a codified document to achieve it, but it is scrapping a different transition period and replacing it with largely status quo, but Boris able to claim success for leaving the EU.
    Sorry. It does not work like that. If we do not exit by agreeing the WA before we leave, we will be leaving on WTO terms. And, I am sure, the EU will not even begin negotiations for a trade bill unless the 39bn or its equivalent at the time is paid or we agree to pay.
    What is impossible about the above? Am I missing something?

    There is give and take on all sides and without being a lawyer or having negotiated a trade deal it seems relatively straightforward.

    The UK loses Mays red lines, but gets the sequencing back on track and avoids disaster
    Boris gets to claim sucess on his only promise
    ERG dont get what they want at all, but have power in cabinet to negotiate the FTA
    EU lose out on sequencing but get the exit bill sorted and avoid no deal
    Labour still have opportunity to topple govt and negotiate SM/CU from the transition if and when the electoral mood is right.
    What happens with Irish border if no FTA agreed by end of transition? Therefore the backstop will be required.
    Good point, logically I would make a similar that leavers make around the backstop vs WA agreement.

    The EU are happy to extend current membership with a risk of no deal at the end of the extension, without a backstop, as they did in March and are likely to do in October. There is no reason why this proposal is worse for them. In fact I would claim it is better as more chance of FTA agreed in 2 years than no deal avoided each time in a series of shorter extensions.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    The fact that you seem so put out by it shows it is cutting through.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
    Seriously though - he's well liked by some and very much disliked by others, but don't we all understand that? I'm no more surprised to see him cheered than I would be to see him booed. I don't think he's particularly unpopular and polling tends to support that, it's just that he's a very polarising figure so I don't think there are many in the middle.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    spudgfsh said:

    egg said:

    Tabman said:

    on topic:
    I'm not quite following your logic. From my simple position, leaving no deal on the table is supposed to mean we hold their feet to the fire because a no deal is worse than a deal.

    But the reality is that whilst a no deal is not good for the EU27, it's much, much worse for us. And they also offset the problems of no deal with the political and economic need to preserve SM and CU integrity (with the added advantage from EU27 position of having a test case of the world of s**t leaving the EU creates for the leaver).

    So I fail to see how a no deal an be a negotiating weapon.

    It’s exploring that. Trying to provoke leavers to explain your very point.
    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
    It’s a major impact for the EU but not the worst case. Worst case is allowing the U.K. to stay, but on terms that fatally damage European unity and the operation of the single market.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    Brexit was based on lies and we will not “heal” until this is conceded.

    We will not heal until it is forgotten about - or at least, regarded as being of no great consequence. This may take some time.

    By contrast, requiring Leavers to concede that their victory was based on lies is essentially advocating a War Guilt Clause.
    I was just thinking.

    What do Leavers want the most? To Leave.
    What do Remainers want the most? For it to be acknowledged that the Brexit platform was in many ways a lie.

    Both Leavers and Remainers can get what they want, if they are willing to compromise.
    Both sides need to acknowledge the cases for Remain and for Leave were a mixture of good points and lies.
    Remain lost.
    The argument is not about Remain lies (whatever those are).

    What Remainers want is
    a) no damaging Brexit, ie not No Deal
    b) and end to the mendacious and hyperbolic rhetoric from “Leave” (currently Boris Johnson).

    Leave promised it would be easy, Leave promised it would help the economy, Leave promised we would be part of a single trading entity stretching across Europe, Leave promised there would trade deals a go-go.

    None of that was true.

    If Boris wants to actually pass Brexit it means getting Remainers onside...this talk of “Surrender Bills” is the complete opposite of that.
    The Remain lies are Cameron's Chatham House speech and numerous other examples of politicians from the Remain side saying that they would respect a leave vote and there would be no suggestion of a second referendum.

    The fact that 3 1/2 years later you feel comfortable saying "If Boris wants to actually pass Brexit it means getting Remainers onside..", rather than it already having happened/be a formality once leave won, says it all
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
    Seriously though - he's well liked by some and very much disliked by others, but don't we all understand that? I'm no more surprised to see him cheered than I would be to see him booed. I don't think he's particularly unpopular and polling tends to support that, it's just that he's a very polarising figure so I don't think there are many in the middle.
    Agreed, I meant more his trolling of lefties with #ournhs, as clearly labour love to remind everyone they invented the concept of nurses ;)
    Hes a very polarising politician but there is a surprising amount of affection for him given how the media sometimes portray it. And yes, a lot of seething hatred
  • Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Yep. Triggered.
    In fairness, Tone did all that miles better:

    https://home.bt.com/images/do-you-remember-labours-landslide-victory-136397882178202601-150501165809.jpg
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.

    He will be better than May, but Corbyn had the Glastonbury crowd cheering him.

    Doesn't make him any more electable.
  • spudgfsh said:

    egg said:

    Tabman said:

    on topic:
    I'm not quite following your logic. From my simple position, leaving no deal on the table is supposed to mean we hold their feet to the fire because a no deal is worse than a deal.

    But the reality is that whilst a no deal is not good for the EU27, it's much, much worse for us. And they also offset the problems of no deal with the political and economic need to preserve SM and CU integrity (with the added advantage from EU27 position of having a test case of the world of s**t leaving the EU creates for the leaver).

    So I fail to see how a no deal an be a negotiating weapon.

    It’s exploring that. Trying to provoke leavers to explain your very point.
    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
    The urgency will undoubtedly exist but it cannot be acted on or resolved quickly as the negotiations change from UK vs EU and heads of state to UK vs EU, national and local parliaments. It will be a nightmare, bringing all sorts of minor vested interests into play and it could not be done quickly.
  • John McDonnell saying that the students "kicking the shit out of Millbank" was the spark that showed "the best of our movement"

    https://youtu.be/uQhrB1RBu00?t=150

    And Boris is inciting violence?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.

    He will be better than May, but Corbyn had the Glastonbury crowd cheering him.

    Doesn't make him any more electable.
    Yeah but Glastonbury cheered Stormzy and Dolly Parton. They are morons
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    spudgfsh said:

    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU

    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
    that is true, but in the event on, say, the 24th October it is clear that no-deal is is certain then there would be significant economic issues. as much as the ERG et al think nothing will happen the pound and the FTSE are certain to drop significantly. This in and of itself may force BJ into doing something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    egg said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The term "surrender bill" is clearly hyperbole, but it does zero in on the point that it takes power away from the British government and give it to the European Union. It seems similar to the 350m for the NHS. It overstates the case but creates a controversy and focuses debate on an issue that helps the Leavers and hurts the Remainers.
    You mean it’s working on the emotional thing, rather than the brain thing?
    Either way, it's working.....
  • Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
    Seriously though - he's well liked by some and very much disliked by others, but don't we all understand that? I'm no more surprised to see him cheered than I would be to see him booed. I don't think he's particularly unpopular and polling tends to support that, it's just that he's a very polarising figure so I don't think there are many in the middle.
    Agreed, I meant more his trolling of lefties with #ournhs, as clearly labour love to remind everyone they invented the concept of nurses ;)
    Hes a very polarising politician but there is a surprising amount of affection for him given how the media sometimes portray it. And yes, a lot of seething hatred
    He's very likeable until you realise he's a charlatan, and then it becomes difficult not to hate him.
  • John McDonnell saying that the students "kicking the shit out of Millbank" was the spark that showed "the best of our movement"

    https://youtu.be/uQhrB1RBu00?t=150

    And Boris is inciting violence?

    He is deliberately creating an atmosphere of division which may lead to violence yes. That McDonnell is an arse doesnt stop Johnson being an arse.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
    Seriously though - he's well liked by some and very much disliked by others, but don't we all understand that? I'm no more surprised to see him cheered than I would be to see him booed. I don't think he's particularly unpopular and polling tends to support that, it's just that he's a very polarising figure so I don't think there are many in the middle.
    Agreed, I meant more his trolling of lefties with #ournhs, as clearly labour love to remind everyone they invented the concept of nurses ;)
    Hes a very polarising politician but there is a surprising amount of affection for him given how the media sometimes portray it. And yes, a lot of seething hatred
    Ah, my misunderstanding. Yes - and I wouldn't be surprised to see this footage pop up in any imminent election campaign broadcast.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.

    He will be better than May, but Corbyn had the Glastonbury crowd cheering him.

    Doesn't make him any more electable.
    Those aren’t exactly the kind of people who vote.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    You believe what you want to believe in and disparage what you don't.

    Not you personally. But people.

    This is true to a certain extent of everyone.

    But some people are more prone to it than others.

    And that is important to recognize.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Yep. Triggered.
    I’m sure it is totally coincidence that there only white people amongst the staff and patients shown in the video so unlike the hospital featured a few days ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Scott_P said:

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.

    He will be better than May, but Corbyn had the Glastonbury crowd cheering him.

    Doesn't make him any more electable.
    Not sure that Glastonbury crowd would still be cheering him now..... He needs a tame Momentum crowd to start up the chants.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    They were cheering the fact that he was leaving ;-)
    This autumn it's the absolute boy versus the bantz lad at a booth near you
    Seriously though - he's well liked by some and very much disliked by others, but don't we all understand that? I'm no more surprised to see him cheered than I would be to see him booed. I don't think he's particularly unpopular and polling tends to support that, it's just that he's a very polarising figure so I don't think there are many in the middle.
    Agreed, I meant more his trolling of lefties with #ournhs, as clearly labour love to remind everyone they invented the concept of nurses ;)
    Hes a very polarising politician but there is a surprising amount of affection for him given how the media sometimes portray it. And yes, a lot of seething hatred
    He's very likeable until you realise he's a charlatan, and then it becomes difficult not to hate him.
    Then best he get to the polls before his mask is removed but given hes been in the public eye for a long old time I dont expect his mask to completely come off
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yeah but Glastonbury cheered Stormzy and Dolly Parton. They are morons

    they still get to vote
  • Scott_P said:

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.

    He will be better than May, but Corbyn had the Glastonbury crowd cheering him.

    Doesn't make him any more electable.
    Yeah but Glastonbury cheered Stormzy and Dolly Parton. They are morons
    Nothing wrong with cheering Dolly. When Corbyn or Stormzy have achieved something like this they might be getting near worthy of it..
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/reliable-source/wp/2018/02/27/dolly-parton-likes-to-give-away-books-she-just-donated-her-100-millionth/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    Counter-evidence would be the far greater willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically against the Tories, than vice versa. In very close LibDem/Tory contests, the Labour vote is often driven down to tiny percentages, and I know from long personal experience that even some Labour members are (less so since 2010, obviously, but even during the actual coalition period) prepared to vote tactically to defeat the Tories. Getting Tories to do so to defeat Labour is more difficult.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    kinabalu said:

    You believe what you want to believe in and disparage what you don't.

    Not you personally. But people.

    This is true to a certain extent of everyone.

    But some people are more prone to it than others.

    And that is important to recognize.
    social media bubbles where you only see the things that you believe also don't help.

    I make sure to have conversations with people who don't agree with me both to challenge my views and to challenge theirs. none of us are going to change our views but that doesn't matter
  • Polruan said:

    spudgfsh said:

    egg said:

    Tabman said:

    on topic:
    I'm not quite following your logic. From my simple position, leaving no deal on the table is supposed to mean we hold their feet to the fire because a no deal is worse than a deal.

    But the reality is that whilst a no deal is not good for the EU27, it's much, much worse for us. And they also offset the problems of no deal with the political and economic need to preserve SM and CU integrity (with the added advantage from EU27 position of having a test case of the world of s**t leaving the EU creates for the leaver).

    So I fail to see how a no deal an be a negotiating weapon.

    It’s exploring that. Trying to provoke leavers to explain your very point.
    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
    It’s a major impact for the EU but not the worst case. Worst case is allowing the U.K. to stay, but on terms that fatally damage European unity and the operation of the single market.
    European unity has been enhanced by the fiasco of Brexit. It's an intangible benefit for the EU, but not an inconsequential one.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    Yeah but Glastonbury cheered Stormzy and Dolly Parton. They are morons

    they still get to vote
    Yes they do, and jolly good too
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    spudgfsh said:

    SunnyJim said:

    spudgfsh said:


    that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.

    The problem Labour have is that Boris doesn't need them to VoNC the government; although I suspect they will if they think a collective resignation is imminent.

    Boris can walk away and drop Labour down the well any time between now and the crunch date.
    I'm still doubtful that Boris will resign the government (I'm not sure it's actually possible under the current arrangements without a VONC) because it will allow Corbyn to be PM going into the resulting election. whatever the pluses the resignation would have it would be bad for morale in the membership to have JC as PM.
    The only thing that makes sense in the current narrative is that Johnson is going to resign to avoid sending the letter. Corbyn is likely the only possible temp, his ego prevents another unity leader, so if he becomes PM even temporarily you will suddenly see many peoples true colours, remember the champagne bottles is broadcasting house when Blair became PM, it would be impossible to hold it back. In the subsequent election there would be plenty of evidence of people trying to cancel Brexit, that Johnson could run on a promise of if given a majority, (of now compliant MPs) he would be out by x date. Brexit Party voters would see the person who had power stymied, and Johnson would run a vote for Farage wake up with Corbyn campaign - confiscated property, removal of border controls, capital flight.

    Will it work?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.
    Johnson is already in an election campaign.
    You do not go to hospitals every week unless you are ill.
  • John McDonnell saying that the students "kicking the shit out of Millbank" was the spark that showed "the best of our movement"

    https://youtu.be/uQhrB1RBu00?t=150

    And Boris is inciting violence?

    He is deliberately creating an atmosphere of division which may lead to violence yes. That McDonnell is an arse doesnt stop Johnson being an arse.
    McDonnell is praising a specific act of violence. Johnson uses the word surrender as a synonym for giving something up. I can see the difference.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    IanB2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    Counter-evidence would be the far greater willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically against the Tories, than vice versa. In very close LibDem/Tory contests, the Labour vote is often driven down to tiny percentages, and I know from long personal experience that even some Labour members are (less so since 2010, obviously, but even during the actual coalition period) prepared to vote tactically to defeat the Tories. Getting Tories to do so to defeat Labour is more difficult.
    Labour/LD tactical voting is the result of 1997. plus that there are a lot labour voters who think "anyone but a tory". Tory leaning voters are more open to argument.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822
    Yorkcity said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That should scare the hell out of Labour. An election campaign will see Boris back in his element.
    Johnson is already in an election campaign.
    You do not go to hospitals every week unless you are ill.
    I thought he was going in to demolish them. The claim was he was destroying the NHS. :)
  • John McDonnell saying that the students "kicking the shit out of Millbank" was the spark that showed "the best of our movement"

    https://youtu.be/uQhrB1RBu00?t=150

    And Boris is inciting violence?

    He is deliberately creating an atmosphere of division which may lead to violence yes. That McDonnell is an arse doesnt stop Johnson being an arse.
    McDonnell is praising a specific act of violence. Johnson uses the word surrender as a synonym for giving something up. I can see the difference.
    If your measure of respectability for a conservative PM of the UK is that someone else behaves worse than him, he passes. I have a higher threshold.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one. A deal and a harmonious ongoing relationship with the EU is very much in our interests. That’s why the Commons should have voted for it.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    spudgfsh said:

    SunnyJim said:

    spudgfsh said:


    that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.

    The problem Labour have is that Boris doesn't need them to VoNC the government; although I suspect they will if they think a collective resignation is imminent.

    Boris can walk away and drop Labour down the well any time between now and the crunch date.
    I'm still doubtful that Boris will resign the government (I'm not sure it's actually possible under the current arrangements without a VONC) because it will allow Corbyn to be PM going into the resulting election. whatever the pluses the resignation would have it would be bad for morale in the membership to have JC as PM.
    The only thing that makes sense in the current narrative is that Johnson is going to resign to avoid sending the letter. Corbyn is likely the only possible temp, his ego prevents another unity leader, so if he becomes PM even temporarily you will suddenly see many peoples true colours, remember the champagne bottles is broadcasting house when Blair became PM, it would be impossible to hold it back. In the subsequent election there would be plenty of evidence of people trying to cancel Brexit, that Johnson could run on a promise of if given a majority, (of now compliant MPs) he would be out by x date. Brexit Party voters would see the person who had power stymied, and Johnson would run a vote for Farage wake up with Corbyn campaign - confiscated property, removal of border controls, capital flight.

    Will it work?
    That is the question. there are too many moving parts to predict what will happen at the next election.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    spudgfsh said:

    social media bubbles where you only see the things that you believe also don't help.

    I make sure to have conversations with people who don't agree with me both to challenge my views and to challenge theirs. none of us are going to change our views but that doesn't matter

    I agree. Here is quite good for that, actually. And I get the Times some days although I prefer the Mirror.

    Even used to subscribe to the Spectator. Yes, I know! But that did get too much after a while.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Yep. Triggered.
    If only you could learn how to think, you might not be wasting your time so completely.
  • EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah

    It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
    Did you never watch a photo op before ?
    Cripes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Good post. Yes I agree "Surrender Act" appeals strongly to those most exposed to the cognitive dissonance of Brexit. The "stab in the back" meme is a strong one for nationalists.

    It does cut through. That is why we keep hearing it. For many people, Brexit is viewed as a war against foreign oppressors.

    A TV vox pop from Stoke the other day illustrated this well. A bloke said -

    "Look, we come out in October and that's it. Deal or No Deal, makes no difference to me. We've done it before and we can do it again."

    Note the 'it' in the last sentence here and consider what it means.

    It means 'stand alone against hostile foreign nations in war'.

    This is powerful stuff and it is going on deep deep deep in the brain chemistry of Leavers.

    Wittering on about tariffs and job losses and loss of GDP stands no chance whatsoever against it.
    And as I’ve pointed out, we weren’t alone the last time “it” happened.

    Using the language of war in relation to our relationship with the EU is something I find utterly despicable on the part of some of the ultra-Brexiteers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    spudgfsh said:

    IanB2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    Counter-evidence would be the far greater willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically against the Tories, than vice versa. In very close LibDem/Tory contests, the Labour vote is often driven down to tiny percentages, and I know from long personal experience that even some Labour members are (less so since 2010, obviously, but even during the actual coalition period) prepared to vote tactically to defeat the Tories. Getting Tories to do so to defeat Labour is more difficult.
    Labour/LD tactical voting is the result of 1997. plus that there are a lot labour voters who think "anyone but a tory". Tory leaning voters are more open to argument.
    That’s not really contesting the point. Whilst Labour activists are usually very tribal, I don’t think the same goes for many of their voters, especially nowadays.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    DavidL said:

    No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one.

    Does that statement actually mean anything?

    If so, perhaps you could try to explain what.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    go into cell formatting on the right click menu and you can format it in 'time'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Right click on a cell (or a selection of cells), format cell, custom, enter "00".
  • spudgfsh said:



    Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.

    whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.

    neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU

    It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.

    So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
    The urgency will undoubtedly exist but it cannot be acted on or resolved quickly as the negotiations change from UK vs EU and heads of state to UK vs EU, national and local parliaments. It will be a nightmare, bringing all sorts of minor vested interests into play and it could not be done quickly.
    I think it could be done much more quickly than you think. Probably a short term interim agreement that didn't change the status quo much, just to buy time for a longer term settlement. The difference being that the fact of the UK leaving was established in law, and there would be absolutely no point in the EU prevaricating in an effort to make us stay in in name or just in effect, which has IMO been their game up to now.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Lib Dems as usual holding sanity back
    I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
    No, it's naivety and inexperience on Swinson's part, prompted partly I guess by strident condemnation of Corbyn from the ChUK defectors. She should have left herself some wriggle room, since if we are staring down the barrel of no deal and it's either that or agreeing to let Corbyn (with the support of all the other opposition parties) take over for a couple of weeks to get the extension she will, I think, be forced to acquiesce in his appointment.
    Which is exactly what she wants in order to keep Tory switchers on board. The only way she goes any closer to Corbyn than the other end of an Olympic-sized barge pole, is to be absolutely left with no other choice and the clock at 2 seconds to midnight.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Change the cell format from number to text
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    kinabalu said:

    spudgfsh said:

    social media bubbles where you only see the things that you believe also don't help.

    I make sure to have conversations with people who don't agree with me both to challenge my views and to challenge theirs. none of us are going to change our views but that doesn't matter

    I agree. Here is quite good for that, actually. And I get the Times some days although I prefer the Mirror.

    Even used to subscribe to the Spectator. Yes, I know! But that did get too much after a while.
    I never met a Brexiter till I came here ca 2013 (quite an eye-opening experience).

    Had trouble logging on from IE this morning for come reason, have used another browser. This has made me late in inquiring of @StuartDickson why he didn't consider Former Ruth Davidson Party to Labour defections in his inquiry to @hamiltonace - surely there must be a significant working class unionist element, especially in the Scottish senses (I use the plural, yes) of unionist?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
    I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
    It was a joke, however get that wife of yours cooking , fresh produced every night , no ready meals unless it is a real curry from a good restaurant.
  • Tabman said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Lib Dems as usual holding sanity back
    I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
    No, it's naivety and inexperience on Swinson's part, prompted partly I guess by strident condemnation of Corbyn from the ChUK defectors. She should have left herself some wriggle room, since if we are staring down the barrel of no deal and it's either that or agreeing to let Corbyn (with the support of all the other opposition parties) take over for a couple of weeks to get the extension she will, I think, be forced to acquiesce in his appointment.
    Which is exactly what she wants in order to keep Tory switchers on board. The only way she goes any closer to Corbyn than the other end of an Olympic-sized barge pole, is to be absolutely left with no other choice and the clock at 2 seconds to midnight.
    Yes and it also keeps on board the many Labour switchers who are switching because of Corbyn's wider baggage, of which there are many.
  • There are no more opponents of Boris's course and, if there are, they are mentally ill and need to be sent off for clinical examination. Boris is everywhere, Boris is everything, Boris is absolute, and Boris is indispensable.
  • Scott_P said:

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Change the cell format from number to text
    That's exactly what I've been trying - I'm sure I just used to go to Format - Cells - Text but Excel 19 buggered the whole thing up I've been looking for ages now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    go into cell formatting on the right click menu and you can format it in 'time'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah

    It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
    Did you never watch a photo op before ?
    Cripes.
    That response is genuine. They like the guy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    go into cell formatting on the right click menu and you can format it in 'time'

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
    Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
    I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
    It was a joke, however get that wife of yours cooking , fresh produced every night , no ready meals unless it is a real curry from a good restaurant.
    Bit unreconstructed of you malcolm. :smile:

    Who mashes the turnips in your house ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    edited September 2019
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    delete
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    What? That politicians put out propaganda?

    I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.

    If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
    Yep. Triggered.
    If only you could learn how to think, you might not be wasting your time so completely.
    There's a lot of time on your hands, hanging around at photo-shoots.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Well this is contra the narrative. Boris the much loved prime minister.

    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1177532641991680001?s=21

    That's going to trigger the fuck out of some
    Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah

    It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
    Did you never watch a photo op before ?
    Cripes.
    That response is genuine. They like the guy.
    I've never thought some people don't.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Scott_P said:

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Change the cell format from number to text
    That's exactly what I've been trying - I'm sure I just used to go to Format - Cells - Text but Excel 19 buggered the whole thing up I've been looking for ages now
    Put an apostrophe in front of it: '06
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
This discussion has been closed.