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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

To call it the surrender bill, do you have to truly believe we can pressure the EU into an exit favourable to us by threatening EU with No Deal, or use it with ulterior motive? And is it really a differential, or does it preach to the perverted and those already on board? Let’s get to the bottom of these questions.

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Comments

  • First? Like Boris.
  • Yet another provocative Remainer thread.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    3rd...like CaptainBuzzkill
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Average poll numbers, last 7 days:

    Con 30.8%
    Lab 23.6%
    LD 20.6%
    BRX 14.6%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
  • It starts like, wow, a pro-Brexit thread; then just morphs, like magic into "yet another remainiac thread" Good writing.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    When May's deal comes back again there will be no excuse for either side not to vote it through if the risk of no deal is so great.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    AndyJS said:

    Average poll numbers, last 7 days:

    Con 30.8%
    Lab 23.6%
    LD 20.6%
    BRX 14.6%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    As long as Boris keeps the Brexit Party under 15% he can win
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Yes, it's cutting through, but it has a limited shelf life.

    If BoZo does seek an extension, he is the one who surrendered.

    How does that fit his "winner' narrative?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    edited September 2019
    It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    To win a majority Boris needs No Deal Leavers and Deal minus the backstop Leavers behind him.

    If Boris wins a majority I expect he would go for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop for GB and just leave it for NI (maybe subject to a NI referendum on backstop v hard border) but he needs a Tory majority first otherwise the DUP would block it
  • You cannot take No Deal off the table from a negotiation standpoint. It is like me going to my employer and saying "give me a pay rise or else. By the way, I won't leave."

    The simple fact is, economically, the EU is in a grim state at the moment as per the economic data, and the last thing any of them needs is 1-2% off GDP, even if we are hit more.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:

    Yes, it's cutting through, but it has a limited shelf life.

    If BoZo does seek an extension, he is the one who surrendered.

    How does that fit his "winner' narrative?

    You've explained succinctly why he won't ask for the extension.

    Resigning the government and letting Corbyn submit the request is the only sensible route for Boris.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Fortunately the site has plenty of provocative leaver commenters to maintain balance ;-)
  • AndyJS said:

    Average poll numbers, last 7 days:

    Con 30.8%
    Lab 23.6%
    LD 20.6%
    BRX 14.6%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Do you just take one YouGov poll, or all of them in the past 7 days?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited September 2019
    "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g
  • Scott_P said:

    Yes, it's cutting through, but it has a limited shelf life.

    If BoZo does seek an extension, he is the one who surrendered.

    How does that fit his "winner' narrative?

    And how might some people describe vacating a position of power [Number 10] so that one's opponent [Corbyn] can occupy it?
  • Long time lurker - so can I just say thanks for the excellent site, comments, and banter.

    To answer the question in the thread title in my personal experience - yes, Surrender Act seems to be cutting through, whether or not it means anything logically. It summarises a reality - that the UK is the weaker negotiating partner, it’s limited leverage squandered by bitter internal division, up against a more powerful entity which is likely to get its way in the end. It is a reality very many people are unhappy about. The phrase provides an emotive way to summarise that and to rail against it, that makes those people (myself included) happier.

    For that reason I think it’s going to end up being as politically devastating as ‘Take Back Control’ was.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2019
  • It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.

    Not even that. The Commons can still vote for No Deal in late October.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes.

    Anything better than May's Deal will serve its purpose.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    I note the SNP, or at least Sturgeon seems to be practically the only MP on the "remain" side more interested in actually preventing 'No Deal' than pathetic political game playing most seem to be indulging in.

    Good for her.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.


    Agreed. It’s just can kicking.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    That's what he and his ministers keep saying. So it must be true.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Northstar said:

    Long time lurker - so can I just say thanks for the excellent site, comments, and banter.

    To answer the question in the thread title in my personal experience - yes, Surrender Act seems to be cutting through, whether or not it means anything logically. It summarises a reality - that the UK is the weaker negotiating partner, it’s limited leverage squandered by bitter internal division, up against a more powerful entity which is likely to get its way in the end. It is a reality very many people are unhappy about. The phrase provides an emotive way to summarise that and to rail against it, that makes those people (myself included) happier.

    For that reason I think it’s going to end up being as politically devastating as ‘Take Back Control’ was.

    Good post. Yes I agree "Surrender Act" appeals strongly to those most exposed to the cognitive dissonance of Brexit. The "stab in the back" meme is a strong one for nationalists.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    And how might some people describe vacating a position of power [Number 10] so that one's opponent [Corbyn] can occupy it?

    It will be spun easily, by someone more articulate than me obviously, as a PM refusing to play the games of remainer MP's any longer.

    If they want to overturn the will of 17m voters then they will have to face the consequences at the ballot box.

    It will resonate...no question at all.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.

    Not even that. The Commons can still vote for No Deal in late October.
    More to the point, if the EU doesn't agree (unanimously) to an extension, and if we don't then revoke, we'll leave with No Deal on 31 October.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Northstar said:

    For that reason I think it’s going to end up being as politically devastating as ‘Take Back Control’ was.

    It's curious that having Taken Back Control we end up weaker, and surrendering...

    I don't expect many Brexiteers to see the irony in that
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    Especially when, apparently, no deal will only cause a few bumps in the road for us.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I note the SNP, or at least Sturgeon seems to be practically the only MP on the "remain" side more interested in actually preventing 'No Deal' than pathetic political game playing most seem to be indulging in.

    Good for her.

    When you've been polling 40pc for over a decade you can perhaps take some time out of the game
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop ie the only Brexit solution the current Commons has voted for as the Brady amendment showed
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average poll numbers, last 7 days:

    Con 30.8%
    Lab 23.6%
    LD 20.6%
    BRX 14.6%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    As long as Boris keeps the Brexit Party under 15% he can win
    The interesting bit is you said 12% yesterday. Once it was thought any small % to UKIP could be disastrous for Tories in GE.

    What have you seen that convinces you something as high as 15% or even 12% over comes vote lending of the other parties?
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    The better threads are well up to National media standards, well above them in some cases.
  • We may as well surrender the fisheries to a mini-deal because we have no means of protecting them. The 21st century Spanish Armada won't be blown off course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I used to. But I have seen the light.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    on topic:
    I'm not quite following your logic. From my simple position, leaving no deal on the table is supposed to mean we hold their feet to the fire because a no deal is worse than a deal.

    But the reality is that whilst a no deal is not good for the EU27, it's much, much worse for us. And they also offset the problems of no deal with the political and economic need to preserve SM and CU integrity (with the added advantage from EU27 position of having a test case of the world of s**t leaving the EU creates for the leaver).

    So I fail to see how a no deal an be a negotiating weapon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes, I'm sure he is.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Anything better than May's Deal will serve its purpose.

    I'm not even sure it needs to be 'better', just make it different enough so that everyone can save face.

    I honestly believe that the vast majority of MP's would take the chance now of getting Brexit done.

    Yes, the would be extremists on either end who would be like the Japanese WW2 soldiers still fighting on in the 70s but everyone else would breathe a sigh of relief.

    We could get back to the quaint days of joshing about the national meltdown over Greggs pasties having 2p put on them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I have rather enjoyed writing my couple of headers. The hardest bit is keeping them short enough, and also on the final paragraph with a punting tip.

    I topped up on No Deal yesterday. No one can stop the car crash.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    GIN1138 said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes, I'm sure he is.
    He's already got it. It's Boza's brilliant boosted NI deal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
  • You cannot take No Deal off the table from a negotiation standpoint. It is like me going to my employer and saying "give me a pay rise or else. By the way, I won't leave."

    The simple fact is, economically, the EU is in a grim state at the moment as per the economic data, and the last thing any of them needs is 1-2% off GDP, even if we are hit more.

    As an employer if someone threatens to leave the last thing I am doing is giving a pay rise, I would be looking to manage their exit. Their best chance outside of a pay review would be to explain why their value is higher than they are getting.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2019
    egg said:

    It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.


    Agreed. It’s just can kicking.
    No, it's not just can kicking. It allows a GE to take place in the meantime without an October 31st gun being held to our heads.

    That is, given where we are, the best available route by far, perhaps the only one. If Boris wins it on a manifesto of crashing us out in chaos, well, then he'd have a mandate to do so and I for one wouldn't think it was illegitimate to do so (although it would of course still be raving bonkers as a policy). It would certainly be massively better than crashing us out in direct contradiction of the settled will of the current parliament.

    If he doesn't get such a mandate, then the new parliament can consider what to do next - accept the Withdrawal Agreement, hold a referendum, go and fish for new unicorns, etc. But at least there will have been an election on the issue now facing us.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    The better threads are well up to National media standards, well above them in some cases.
    You've not answered my question though. I've seen mike on daily politics, I think, and heard him on Today prog - why no Herdson et al making any coverage, the mini-guidos are always popping up on sky news - is it just a landan thing
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    That's what he and his ministers keep saying. So it must be true.
    Perhaps they should deny it officially, then we'd all believe it.
  • Selebian said:

    Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Fortunately the site has plenty of provocative leaver commenters to maintain balance ;-)
    Not to mention the commenters who said they voted Remain but have now had Damascene conversions to Leave.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    One must believe this unless one accepts that our Prime Minister is a barefaced liar.

    He is ON THE RECORD as stating that the chances of a Deal are 99.9999%.

    Converted to real world language that is a certainty.

    It is also therefore a guarantee.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    edited September 2019
    Foxy said:


    I topped up on No Deal yesterday. No one can stop the car crash.

    If they all followed Sturgeon & Ken Clarke's lead they could. But the Lib Dems are desperate to avoid putting Corbyn into Gov't as are the ex-Tory remainers. & Corbyn is desperate to see Johnson break the law (Or surrender) and also believes he should be next up.

    It's entirely about optics, Corbyn won't be able to pass any controversial legislation with the house numbers as they are.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I have been pointing out for months that "failing and blaming" is deliberate strategy and that they intend to use the hatred thus generated to wage a culture war. I appreciate that many Leavers sincerely think he is trying, but I think he isn't.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • SunnyJim said:


    Anything better than May's Deal will serve its purpose.

    I'm not even sure it needs to be 'better', just make it different enough so that everyone can save face.

    I honestly believe that the vast majority of MP's would take the chance now of getting Brexit done.

    Yes, the would be extremists on either end who would be like the Japanese WW2 soldiers still fighting on in the 70s but everyone else would breathe a sigh of relief.

    We could get back to the quaint days of joshing about the national meltdown over Greggs pasties having 2p put on them.
    Why would Labour save Johnson now when they have him on the ropes? The price of Tory brexit in this parliament would at a minimum be the end of Johnsons "reign". He is not going to fall on his sword and the Tory party dont seem in a hurry to boot him out.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited September 2019

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    It's not totally beyond the realms. If he's not a details man, if he's always got people under him to work up the details, if the tales of impossibility have been heard by him 100 times before for things that have ultimately been done, if the back of an envelope that's been presented to the EU is just how he works, then he make think it is all sincere.

    It is not at all an uncommon mode of senior management overreach.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    egg said:

    It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.


    Agreed. It’s just can kicking.
    No, it's not just can kicking. It allows a GE to take place in the meantime without an October 31st gun being held to our heads.

    That is, given where we are, the best available route by far, perhaps the only one. If Boris wins it on a manifesto of crashing us out in chaos, well, then he'd have a mandate to do so and I for one wouldn't think it was illegitimate to do so (although it would of course be raving bonkers as a policy). It would certainly be massively better than crashing us out in direct contradiction of the settled will of the current parliament.

    If he doesn't get such a mandate, then the new parliament can consider what to do next - accept the Withdrawal Agreement, hold a referendum, go and fish for new unicorns, etc. But at least there will have been an election on the issue now facing us.
    we already know the current parliament on the current manifestos cannot come to an agreement. the hope is that an election will put a few cracks into the impasse (even if it doesn't break it completely). if BJ wins a majority on a 'exit at any cost' platform and does it, then it's legitimate for that to happen. just like it would be legitimate for the libdems/labour to have a policy of 'revoke/referendum/rejoin' in any following election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    tlg86 said:

    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
    It's not punishment, just WTO rules that tariffs apply.

    If you want no trade barriers then don't Brexit, it really is that simple. All the rest is arguing about the height of the barriers.

    The Deal doesn't stop the Brexit headache, it just closes the first phase and moves onto a time limited discussion of much wider issues.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    The better threads are well up to National media standards, well above them in some cases.
    You've not answered my question though. I've seen mike on daily politics, I think, and heard him on Today prog - why no Herdson et al making any coverage, the mini-guidos are always popping up on sky news - is it just a landan thing
    Sorry, I don't know. I suspect the thread writers here are a bit more self-effacing than Guido's gang. I wouldn't know. Rarely look at Guido's site. I think it's crap.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I think he wants one but has never been willing to make the compromises that would enable one to be achieved.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    It's not totally beyond the realms. If he's not a details man, if he's always got people under him to work up the details, if the tales of impossibility have been hard by him 100 times before for things that have ultimately been done, if the back of an envelope that's been presented to the EU is just how he works, then he make think it is all sincere.

    It is not at all an uncommon mode of senior management overreach.
    And what is the grand plan to sell this magic deal to the one body that matters most - parliament? Insult and threaten the opposition MPs? Insult and remove the whip from MPs in his own party? Genius!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Is the thread a good egg or a rotten egg?

    I eggpect some divergence.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
    If that is the case, why hasn't HMG forwarded their suggested amendments to the text of the WA to enable that outcome?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
    It's not punishment, just WTO rules that tariffs apply.

    If you want no trade barriers then don't Brexit, it really is that simple. All the rest is arguing about the height of the barriers.

    The Deal doesn't stop the Brexit headache, it just closes the first phase and moves onto a time limited discussion of much wider issues.
    Bollocks. The thread header was implying that the EU might ban us from selling agricultural products to them. That's got fuck all to do with the WTO.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    GIN1138 said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes, I'm sure he is.
    Yes. I think it's about 60/40 that he is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    viewcode said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I have been pointing out for months that "failing and blaming" is deliberate strategy and that they intend to use the hatred thus generated to wage a culture war. I appreciate that many Leavers sincerely think he is trying, but I think he isn't.
    Yes, I think that is the plan, so far as there is a plan at all.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    viewcode said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I have been pointing out for months that "failing and blaming" is deliberate strategy and that they intend to use the hatred thus generated to wage a culture war. I appreciate that many Leavers sincerely think he is trying, but I think he isn't.
    to a point I agree with you but failing/blaming will have consequences when the markets get spooked by no-deal (regardless of whether there is any actual chaos).
  • SunnyJim said:


    Anything better than May's Deal will serve its purpose.

    I'm not even sure it needs to be 'better', just make it different enough so that everyone can save face.

    I honestly believe that the vast majority of MP's would take the chance now of getting Brexit done.

    Yes, the would be extremists on either end who would be like the Japanese WW2 soldiers still fighting on in the 70s but everyone else would breathe a sigh of relief.

    We could get back to the quaint days of joshing about the national meltdown over Greggs pasties having 2p put on them.
    Why would Labour save Johnson now when they have him on the ropes? The price of Tory brexit in this parliament would at a minimum be the end of Johnsons "reign". He is not going to fall on his sword and the Tory party dont seem in a hurry to boot him out.
    And why would the ERG let him off the hook at the eleventh hour?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Why would Labour save Johnson now when they have him on the ropes? The price of Tory brexit in this parliament would at a minimum be the end of Johnsons "reign". He is not going to fall on his sword and the Tory party dont seem in a hurry to boot him out.

    You misunderstand.

    The A50 Extension letter is the electoral killer.

    Labour wouldn't be 'saving' Johnson.

    Johnson would be killing Labour by resigning.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Pro_Rata said:

    It is not at all an uncommon mode of senior management overreach.

    "Don't bring me problems; bring me solutions!"

  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
    This would be a good outcome. When he became leader, I thought it would be his plan to go for a 2 year transition where nothing changes, apart from we have legally left.

    He seems way too committed to no deal leavers to perform that switch now.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Pro_Rata said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    It's not totally beyond the realms. If he's not a details man, if he's always got people under him to work up the details, if the tales of impossibility have been hard by him 100 times before for things that have ultimately been done, if the back of an envelope that's been presented to the EU is just how he works, then he make think it is all sincere.

    It is not at all an uncommon mode of senior management overreach.
    And what is the grand plan to sell this magic deal to the one body that matters most - parliament? Insult and threaten the opposition MPs? Insult and remove the whip from MPs in his own party? Genius!
    Dom has wargamed this.

    On a related note, isn't he off to have a procedure in October?

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    SunnyJim said:


    Why would Labour save Johnson now when they have him on the ropes? The price of Tory brexit in this parliament would at a minimum be the end of Johnsons "reign". He is not going to fall on his sword and the Tory party dont seem in a hurry to boot him out.

    You misunderstand.

    The A50 Extension letter is the electoral killer.

    Labour wouldn't be 'saving' Johnson.

    Johnson would be killing Labour by resigning.
    that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    To win a majority Boris needs No Deal Leavers and Deal minus the backstop Leavers behind him.

    If Boris wins a majority I expect he would go for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop for GB and just leave it for NI (maybe subject to a NI referendum on backstop v hard border) but he needs a Tory majority first otherwise the DUP would block it

    The EU have said they will not just accept the WA minus the backstop and leaving it in the hands of NI (especially since the NI government isn't sitting) without something replacing the backstop. Johnson has yet to propose anything replacing the backstop. So that's still a route to No Deal.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
    It's not punishment, just WTO rules that tariffs apply.

    If you want no trade barriers then don't Brexit, it really is that simple. All the rest is arguing about the height of the barriers.

    The Deal doesn't stop the Brexit headache, it just closes the first phase and moves onto a time limited discussion of much wider issues.
    Bollocks. The thread header was implying that the EU might ban us from selling agricultural products to them. That's got fuck all to do with the WTO.
    Licences may take a little time, but that is the nature of bureaucracy.

    If we were planning a hard Brexit then we should have started building bigger customs and excise departments years ago. Indeed that was what I advocated from July 2016.

    No Deal is not viable, not because of the Benn Act, because of the near complete lack of preparation for it.
  • kinabalu said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    One must believe this unless one accepts that our Prime Minister is a barefaced liar.

    He is ON THE RECORD as stating that the chances of a Deal are 99.9999%.

    Converted to real world language that is a certainty.

    It is also therefore a guarantee.
    I think there are some people who lie so often that they find it hard to tell the truth, even about mundane things of no consequence. I don't know Johnson well enough to know if he is such a person, but I can't rule it out.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
    I don't live there anymore or I'll definitely have tuned in - Good for you and for Team PB
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    And why would the ERG let him off the hook at the eleventh hour?

    I'm not sure the ERG would have much in the way of influence; what would they do, offer to submit the A50 extension themselves?

    I see no electoral benefit to Boris staying on if parliament refuses to vote for whatever he may bring back as a final deal.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Having seen The Times headline this morning are the powers behind no deal trying to actually ferment riots on the streets thereby give Johnson the excuse to invoke the Civic Contingencies (?) Act and revoke
    Benn bill and crash out. No that’s too far fetched even for me isn’t it?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
    Will you be wearing red shoes ? ....

    Asking for cheating fashion victim of some disrepute.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
    I don't live there anymore or I'll definitely have tuned in - Good for you and for Team PB
    Those fortunate not to live in Yorkshire will be able to pick it up on iPlayer
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    nichomar said:

    Having seen The Times headline this morning are the powers behind no deal trying to actually ferment riots on the streets thereby give Johnson the excuse to invoke the Civic Contingencies (?) Act and revoke
    Benn bill and crash out. No that’s too far fetched even for me isn’t it?

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1177564452390150144

    https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1177562682242871297
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
    It's not punishment, just WTO rules that tariffs apply.

    If you want no trade barriers then don't Brexit, it really is that simple. All the rest is arguing about the height of the barriers.

    The Deal doesn't stop the Brexit headache, it just closes the first phase and moves onto a time limited discussion of much wider issues.
    Which could still end up with no deal on trading arrangements, oh happy days.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    spudgfsh said:


    that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.

    The problem Labour have is that Boris doesn't need them to VoNC the government; although I suspect they will if they think a collective resignation is imminent.

    Boris can walk away and drop Labour down the well any time between now and the crunch date.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    tlg86 said:

    egg said:

    Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:

    a) the job is unpaid
    b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you
    c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations
    d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you

    Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.

    Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.

    It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?

    Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
    I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.

    I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
    It isn't just the countries themselves. The companies who work within those countries do not want to open themselves up to possible lawsuit. If you do not know what the regulations are in a country, why would you trade with them and leave yourself liable? Pre leave that is all written down in EU law. Post leave that has to be British law. And that law doesn't currently exist.

    Add to that tariffs and other standard issues, then we quickly become persona non gratis.
  • "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
    I don't live there anymore or I'll definitely have tuned in - Good for you and for Team PB
    Those fortunate not to live in Yorkshire will be able to pick it up on iPlayer
    Thanks for the tip Mike - although I do find iplayer a hassle compared to the other apps
  • It is of course a lie to suggest that the Benn-Burt Act takes No Deal off the table.

    It merely defers it to Jan 2020, and only then, subject to the EU agreeing to make an offer - or, alternatively, to some other date the EU offers, subject to the government and Commons not both rejecting it.

    Not even that. The Commons can still vote for No Deal in late October.
    Not if an extension has already been agreed.
  • Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
  • Northstar said:

    Long time lurker - so can I just say thanks for the excellent site, comments, and banter.

    To answer the question in the thread title in my personal experience - yes, Surrender Act seems to be cutting through, whether or not it means anything logically. It summarises a reality - that the UK is the weaker negotiating partner, it’s limited leverage squandered by bitter internal division, up against a more powerful entity which is likely to get its way in the end. It is a reality very many people are unhappy about. The phrase provides an emotive way to summarise that and to rail against it, that makes those people (myself included) happier.

    For that reason I think it’s going to end up being as politically devastating as ‘Take Back Control’ was.

    "Surrender Act" is especially powerful because it summarises the reality that the weakness of the UK in negotiations is self-inflicted by parliament. Labour was unwise to challenge it because making the phrase a point of controversy only allows Johnson to ram home the point and also in justifying himself to explain its meaning in more detail than he would otherwise have been afforded.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    algarkirk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    Yes, I'm sure he is.
    Yes. I think it's about 60/40 that he is.
    People forget that at the outset Boris would probably have been happy with EEA and Cummings even told Farage he saw the referendum as a way for us to Remain in an outer tier of the EU.

    Obviously things have moved on since then and we've nearly all become "radicalized" in some way over Brexit but I do think if they could get a deal from the EU that removed the backstop they would go with it.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
    If that is the case, why hasn't HMG forwarded their suggested amendments to the text of the WA to enable that outcome?
    I said without the Withdrawal Agreement. He wants to bypass it entirely and thinks the EU will be so afraid of the consequences of No Deal, that they will ensure there are no consequences.
  • JackW said:

    "a) the job is unpaid"

    Silly Samuel and Harry have had jobs at the nationals for years.

    How come we never see Herdson or TSE on #skypapers e.g

    I will be on the Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) this weekend. Still unpaid though. And assuming I don't get dropped for someone with a higher profile.
    Will you be wearing red shoes ? ....

    Asking for cheating fashion victim of some disrepute.
    I'm not the bloody pope!
  • Russian Grand Prix Winner BFE

    Hamilton 3.35
    Le Clerc 2.8
    Vettel 5.2
    Bottas 4.3
    Max (5 place grid penalty); a rather lowly 6.2

    I'll ask Ms Briskin if I can lay Bottas when she gets back.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SunnyJim said:

    spudgfsh said:


    that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.

    The problem Labour have is that Boris doesn't need them to VoNC the government; although I suspect they will if they think a collective resignation is imminent.

    Boris can walk away and drop Labour down the well any time between now and the crunch date.
    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.
  • Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    I struggle to understand the argument that the EU will punish the Uk by blocking our agri exports. According to the EUs own published scenario no deal means that the EU exports of agri goods to the UK will drop 34 bill USD whilst the UK exports to the EU will drop 19bill USD.

    UK farmers have a 15bill hole to fill, EU countries will have milk lakes, tomato mountains. The EU know this because Putin stopped all EU food imports and the consequences are well published.
  • In all seriousness, does anyone genuinely believe that Johnson is looking to get a deal done?

    I genuinely think he believes that if he can brandish No Deal at the EuCo summit, he will be able to negotiate a new deal which will amount to full continuity without the Withdrawal Agreement.
    If that is the case, why hasn't HMG forwarded their suggested amendments to the text of the WA to enable that outcome?
    I said without the Withdrawal Agreement. He wants to bypass it entirely and thinks the EU will be so afraid of the consequences of No Deal, that they will ensure there are no consequences.
    Sorry - I must have translated that in my head to "without the backstop".

    But it still makes no sense. How do you have a withdrawal agreement without a Withdrawal Agreement?!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Foxy said:

    Good post. Yes I agree "Surrender Act" appeals strongly to those most exposed to the cognitive dissonance of Brexit. The "stab in the back" meme is a strong one for nationalists.

    It does cut through. That is why we keep hearing it. For many people, Brexit is viewed as a war against foreign oppressors.

    A TV vox pop from Stoke the other day illustrated this well. A bloke said -

    "Look, we come out in October and that's it. Deal or No Deal, makes no difference to me. We've done it before and we can do it again."

    Note the 'it' in the last sentence here and consider what it means.

    It means 'stand alone against hostile foreign nations in war'.

    This is powerful stuff and it is going on deep deep deep in the brain chemistry of Leavers.

    Wittering on about tariffs and job losses and loss of GDP stands no chance whatsoever against it.
  • Yet another provocative Remainer thread.

    Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
    Fair point, but I prefer threads that are reasoned without seeking to provoke, so that is what you may get. i.e. No "it's a lie..." from me, even posed in the form of rhetorical questions.
This discussion has been closed.