No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one.
Does that statement actually mean anything?
If so, perhaps you could try to explain what.
there are two types of option for the UK.
1) unviable options, like a WA with no form of backstop or replacement, which will never happen 2) Viable options, like leaving with a WA, which can happen
of all the viable options there is a spectrum from 'Sensible ones' which are both politically and economically beneficial (or at least not too detrimental) to the 'bonkers ones' which are either economic or political suicide (probably both).
No-deal is viable but is towards the bonkers end of the spectrum to the remainers and towards the sensible end for the ERG. That is what the fight has always been about
Brexit was based on lies and we will not “heal” until this is conceded.
We will not heal until it is forgotten about - or at least, regarded as being of no great consequence. This may take some time.
By contrast, requiring Leavers to concede that their victory was based on lies is essentially advocating a War Guilt Clause.
I was just thinking.
What do Leavers want the most? To Leave. What do Remainers want the most? For it to be acknowledged that the Brexit platform was in many ways a lie.
Both Leavers and Remainers can get what they want, if they are willing to compromise.
Both sides need to acknowledge the cases for Remain and for Leave were a mixture of good points and lies.
Remain lost. The argument is not about Remain lies (whatever those are).
What Remainers want is a) no damaging Brexit, ie not No Deal b) and end to the mendacious and hyperbolic rhetoric from “Leave” (currently Boris Johnson).
Leave promised it would be easy, Leave promised it would help the economy, Leave promised we would be part of a single trading entity stretching across Europe, Leave promised there would trade deals a go-go.
None of that was true.
If Boris wants to actually pass Brexit it means getting Remainers onside...this talk of “Surrender Bills” is the complete opposite of that.
The Remain lies are Cameron's Chatham House speech and numerous other examples of politicians from the Remain side saying that they would respect a leave vote and there would be no suggestion of a second referendum.
The fact that 3 1/2 years later you feel comfortable saying "If Boris wants to actually pass Brexit it means getting Remainers onside..", rather than it already having happened/be a formality once leave won, says it all
To coin a metaphor.
Remain and Leave are two passengers in a driverless car, driving along a road at the top of a cliff.
Leave says "I want to go to the beach. It'll be lovely down there! There's a road down to it, it's a bit windy but don't worry there's crash barriers and everything, we'll be fine if we take over and drive down."
Remain says "I'd much rather stay on the road to our original destination, but if we have to then OK."
Leave says "Driving down the road would take too long, all those S bends. Let's drive off the cliff! We'll get to that lovely beach much quicker!"
Remain says "WTF! You lied to us. We'd much rather stay alive and carry on with our original journey thanks very much!"
The onus is on leave to 1) take the windy but safe road or 2) demonstrate that there is some sort of parachute or wing mechanism that avoids certain death.
Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah
It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
Did you never watch a photo op before ? Cripes.
That response is genuine. They like the guy.
I've never thought some people don't.
Boris's trick is to be an anti-politician in the age of anti-politics. For a huge slab of voters, he stands distant, with them, against the collection of knobs in Parliament.
I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)
but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6
Anyone help?
Change the cell format from number to text
That's exactly what I've been trying - I'm sure I just used to go to Format - Cells - Text but Excel 19 buggered the whole thing up I've been looking for ages now
That does rather neglect that May's deal would've sailed through had the likes of pro-EU types such as Miller and Grieve not contrived to give Parliament a 'meaningful say'.
Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah
It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
Did you never watch a photo op before ? Cripes.
That response is genuine. They like the guy.
I've never thought some people don't.
Boris's trick is to be an anti-politician in the age of anti-politics. For a huge slab of voters, he stands distant, with them, against the collection of knobs in Parliament.
I like the choice of phrase - and we'll see how huge the slab is, or isn't, in due course.
And as I’ve pointed out, we weren’t alone the last time “it” happened.
Using the language of war in relation to our relationship with the EU is something I find utterly despicable on the part of some of the ultra-Brexiteers.
I feel the same. But as well as being powerful there is a logic and a consistency to it. The Referendum was to a large extent won on a message which combined grievance and exceptionalism - 'Free of foreign oppression we will prosper again!' - and therefore it is fitting in a sense that we leave in that spirit.
No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one.
Does that statement actually mean anything?
If so, perhaps you could try to explain what.
there are two types of option for the UK.
1) unviable options, like a WA with no form of backstop or replacement, which will never happen 2) Viable options, like leaving with a WA, which can happen
of all the viable options there is a spectrum from 'Sensible ones' which are both politically and economically beneficial (or at least not too detrimental) to the 'bonkers ones' which are either economic or political suicide (probably both).
No-deal is viable but is towards the bonkers end of the spectrum to the remainers and towards the sensible end for the ERG. That is what the fight has always been about
It's absolutely pointless classifying things as "viable" or whatever unless you're able to give some kind of explanation of what you mean by it.
You might as well say that you think leaving with No Deal is "dchgdn4vj.lo".
I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.
If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
Yep. Triggered.
If only you could learn how to think, you might not be wasting your time so completely.
There's a lot of time on your hands, hanging around at photo-shoots.
I'm sure you're right (whatever you're trying to say).
Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
It was a joke, however get that wife of yours cooking , fresh produced every night , no ready meals unless it is a real curry from a good restaurant.
Bit unreconstructed of you malcolm.
Who mashes the turnips in your house ?
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I remember quite well that even in the last days of the second Gulf War, Saddam Hussein literally kissed a baby in front of the photographers.
If people still want to Believe in Boris, despite all the evidence, who is anyone else to burst their bubble? It would be as cruel as telling a child expecting a Christmas present that Santa Claus was just a fat old fraud in fancy dress.
Haven’t his ratings gone up since he started as PM?
Not as far as I'm aware, but if you want to post some numbers you're free to do so.
That does rather neglect that May's deal would've sailed through had the likes of pro-EU types such as Miller and Grieve not contrived to give Parliament a 'meaningful say'.
Yes, but for Remainers, May's deal is driving down the winding road to the beach in a stolen M5 by a young offender with no licence.
Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah
It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
Did you never watch a photo op before ? Cripes.
That response is genuine. They like the guy.
I've never thought some people don't.
Boris's trick is to be an anti-politician in the age of anti-politics. For a huge slab of voters, he stands distant, with them, against the collection of knobs in Parliament.
I like the choice of phrase - and we'll see how huge the slab is, or isn't, in due course.
Mike SMITHSON, for one. And 16 million others. And they’re NHS workers! Hah
It proves he’s still got that charisma. I can’t think of a prime minister who’s got that kind of reception since early Blair 20 years ago
Did you never watch a photo op before ? Cripes.
That response is genuine. They like the guy.
I've never thought some people don't.
Boris's trick is to be an anti-politician in the age of anti-politics. For a huge slab of voters, he stands distant, with them, against the collection of knobs in Parliament.
I like the choice of phrase - and we'll see how huge the slab is, or isn't, in due course.
As any fule kno, including Malcolm, SLab is tiny
Think they are going beyond Tiny , heading for microscopic
That does rather neglect that May's deal would've sailed through had the likes of pro-EU types such as Miller and Grieve not contrived to give Parliament a 'meaningful say'.
And without the original Miller case we would probably not have had GE2017 - hence a wholly different version of recent British political history. This struck me this morning at the Farmers' Market. It was an insight of sufficient import to cause me to tarry a while without buying anything.
A better Excel solution, if you need to calculate with the number later and don’t want it treated as text, is to specify a custom number format as ‘00’ and that will add a leading 0 if the number has less than 2 significant figures. Add more zeros for more significant figures.
A better Excel solution, if you need to calculate with the number later and don’t want it treated as text, is to specify a custom number format as ‘00’ and that will add a leading 0 if the number has less than 2 significant figures. Add more zeros for more significant figures.
To calculate, say, the ratio of bus times to bus numbers?
Congratulations Egg on your first thread piece. You will now learn for yourself that:
a) the job is unpaid b) you get a load of shit aimed at you, mostly from people who know even less than you c) most of the rest just ignore what you say and chat about their own preoccupations d) the time you spend on it is out of all proportion to any satisfaction it may give you
Well done, and keep going. Always good to have a range of voices.
Thanks. The flak will be no problem. And it took no time to write. I was in a sports bar yesterday afternoon drinking lager and watching cricket, I composed it all on back of a couple of beer mats.
It all revolves around one crux: is the no deal threat to EU, of us walking away with no deal, really that much threat to them to make a difference in negotiation?
Currently I don’t think it is, so I invite leavers to explain how it is.
I don't know if it does make any difference. But quite a lot of the no deal stuff is at the discretion of both sides. So, yes, "the EU completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc." But would that not be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face? I mean, yes, that would be bad for us, but it would have consequences for them too.
I guess part of the calculation is, "would the EU feel it necessary to punish the UK for leaving without a deal?"
It's not punishment, just WTO rules that tariffs apply.
If you want no trade barriers then don't Brexit, it really is that simple. All the rest is arguing about the height of the barriers.
The Deal doesn't stop the Brexit headache, it just closes the first phase and moves onto a time limited discussion of much wider issues.
Bollocks. The thread header was implying that the EU might ban us from selling agricultural products to them. That's got fuck all to do with the WTO.
It has everything to do with it. WTO MFN rules require the EU to give every other WTO member (third country) the exact same trading conditions - unless an FTA (a "deal") has been registered.
The "ban, which the EU might consider, or not, some time in the future" are the trading conditions for third countries, which have already been the law for quite some time and have all the while been applied to third country imports, shaping economic realities on the ground, and will be applied to the UK - automatically - in a No Deal scenario.
A better Excel solution, if you need to calculate with the number later and don’t want it treated as text, is to specify a custom number format as ‘00’ and that will add a leading 0 if the number has less than 2 significant figures. Add more zeros for more significant figures.
To calculate, say, the ratio of bus times to bus numbers?
Clearly of no benefit in this situation but it is cleaner. Just passing on some knowledge.
A better Excel solution, if you need to calculate with the number later and don’t want it treated as text, is to specify a custom number format as ‘00’ and that will add a leading 0 if the number has less than 2 significant figures. Add more zeros for more significant figures.
Yes well it's a bus timetable so the number's won't be used later. Thanks for trying though.
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.
No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one.
Does that statement actually mean anything?
If so, perhaps you could try to explain what.
there are two types of option for the UK.
1) unviable options, like a WA with no form of backstop or replacement, which will never happen 2) Viable options, like leaving with a WA, which can happen
of all the viable options there is a spectrum from 'Sensible ones' which are both politically and economically beneficial (or at least not too detrimental) to the 'bonkers ones' which are either economic or political suicide (probably both).
No-deal is viable but is towards the bonkers end of the spectrum to the remainers and towards the sensible end for the ERG. That is what the fight has always been about
It's absolutely pointless classifying things as "viable" or whatever unless you're able to give some kind of explanation of what you mean by it.
You might as well say that you think leaving with No Deal is "dchgdn4vj.lo".
Wait,... dchgdn4vj.lo is No-Deal? I thought it was May's deal withouth the bacskstop but with a dash of lime.
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.
That does rather neglect that May's deal would've sailed through had the likes of pro-EU types such as Miller and Grieve not contrived to give Parliament a 'meaningful say'.
And without the original Miller case we would probably not have had GE2017 - hence a wholly different version of recent British political history. This struck me this morning at the Farmers' Market. It was an insight of sufficient import to cause me to tarry a while without buying anything.
I'm not sure that's true. The election was called after Article 50 was invoked and after the European Council published their negotiating guidelines.
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.
New man.
My wife has a friend who was totally lost when her husband retired. He'd been something in computing, working for a multinational, out at 7, back 12 hours later and so on, with numerous overseas trips. The first day he was retired he asked her what she was cooking for lunch! She had to point out that she never cooked lunch, just had a sandwich. (She'd been retired from her teaching job for about 10 years.)
That was about 15 years ago; I gather he now cooks once or twice a week.
In my case I take my wife out for a dinner or long lunch at least once a week. Seems to work.
There are no more opponents of Boris's course and, if there are, they are mentally ill and need to be sent off for clinical examination. Boris is everywhere, Boris is everything, Boris is absolute, and Boris is indispensable.
No deal is a viable option for the UK but that doesn’t mean that it is a sensible one.
Does that statement actually mean anything?
If so, perhaps you could try to explain what.
there are two types of option for the UK.
1) unviable options, like a WA with no form of backstop or replacement, which will never happen 2) Viable options, like leaving with a WA, which can happen
of all the viable options there is a spectrum from 'Sensible ones' which are both politically and economically beneficial (or at least not too detrimental) to the 'bonkers ones' which are either economic or political suicide (probably both).
No-deal is viable but is towards the bonkers end of the spectrum to the remainers and towards the sensible end for the ERG. That is what the fight has always been about
It's absolutely pointless classifying things as "viable" or whatever unless you're able to give some kind of explanation of what you mean by it.
You might as well say that you think leaving with No Deal is "dchgdn4vj.lo".
Wait,... dchgdn4vj.lo is No-Deal? I thought it was May's deal withouth the bacskstop but with a dash of lime.
Yes, No Deal is certainly dchgdn4vj.lo
And what's more, I've just hit on a solution to the Brexit problem that will please everyone and heal all the rifts in our polity. It goes as follows: jsfjgs,55ynk,
It originally appeared under "Just Another Day in Fucknutsville".
...But the reaction, underway even before she started speaking, made clear that for much of the country, it was just another day in what Rahm Emanuel, when he was Barack Obama’s chief of staff, called the metropolis of “Fucknutsville.” The news may be important, it may be swerving wildly in surprising ways, but never these days is it something that commands reverent attention.
People below a certain age may not have firsthand experience with news events that did indeed command that reaction — and impeachment proceedings against a president unambiguously would have been one of them.
As it happens, I’m above that age. Of four major efforts in U.S. history to impeach presidents, I have vivid, contemporaneous images in mind for three of them...
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
There are no more opponents of Boris's course and, if there are, they are mentally ill and need to be sent off for clinical examination. Boris is everywhere, Boris is everything, Boris is absolute, and Boris is indispensable.
Big Boris is watching you!
There's something about the idea of "Boris is everywhere" that is bizarrely appealing ( as an image, rather than anything approaching practical reality, as we've seen recently ) . Like a gurningly, obliviously, and idiotically cheerful sheepdog floating above the clouds in a children's TV programme.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
I'm not sure that's true. The election was called after Article 50 was invoked and after the European Council published their negotiating guidelines.
But if there were no need to get a Deal past a Meaningful Vote in parliament, Mrs May would probably not have risked her small majority for a bigger one - is this not a fair assumption?
Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.
whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.
neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.
So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
The urgency will undoubtedly exist but it cannot be acted on or resolved quickly as the negotiations change from UK vs EU and heads of state to UK vs EU, national and local parliaments. It will be a nightmare, bringing all sorts of minor vested interests into play and it could not be done quickly.
I think it could be done much more quickly than you think. Probably a short term interim agreement that didn't change the status quo much, just to buy time for a longer term settlement. The difference being that the fact of the UK leaving was established in law, and there would be absolutely no point in the EU prevaricating in an effort to make us stay in in name or just in effect, which has IMO been their game up to now.
But it would not be the EU any longer, it is Walloonian members of the Walloon parliament with their vested interests, coalitions and opportunists repeated across not just 28 national parliaments but also plenty of regional parliaments too. Issues like Gibraltar wont be easy to hide away when one Spanish bloc can make the other bloc look weak by demanding things from the UK. It will be a nightmare.
Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
It was a joke, however get that wife of yours cooking , fresh produced every night , no ready meals unless it is a real curry from a good restaurant.
Bit unreconstructed of you malcolm.
Who mashes the turnips in your house ?
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I can't have prompted that, surely ?
I do most of the cooking - but sometimes suspect I'm just a control freak.
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.
New man.
Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week
that is the game of political chicken which is going on at the moment. labour want BJ to go for an extension and BJ want labour to kick him out and do it themselves. it's a case of who blinks first.
The problem Labour have is that Boris doesn't need them to VoNC the government; although I suspect they will if they think a collective resignation is imminent.
Boris can walk away and drop Labour down the well any time between now and the crunch date.
I'm still doubtful that Boris will resign the government (I'm not sure it's actually possible under the current arrangements without a VONC) because it will allow Corbyn to be PM going into the resulting election. whatever the pluses the resignation would have it would be bad for morale in the membership to have JC as PM.
Johnson can definitely resign; I think I read that cummings’ cunning plan #435 was for him to do so while refusing to recommend his successor to the queen, buying 14 days to squat in No. 10 before FTPA results in an election. In practice there must always be a government and the queen would ask whoever is seen as having the best chance of commanding the confidence of the house to form that government.
In the unlikely event of a sitting PM resigning it’s not clear whether that would be someone from his own party or the LOTO, but there’s at least a risk that a snap change of leader in the Conservative party triggered by his resignation as PM could see the new leader asked to form a government.
I don't think that is the case. under the FTPA the 14 days only start when there is a motion passed by the house which states "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government". prior to the FTPA you couldn't resign as PM without naming a successor. it's never been possible for a PM to resign the whole government it has to be brought down.
Not so. Arthur Balfour's Tory Government resigned in December 1905 despite still having a Commons majority of circa 100. The LOTO - Sir Henry Campbell - Bannerman became PM and went on to win a Liberal landslide at the January 1906 election.
There are no more opponents of Boris's course and, if there are, they are mentally ill and need to be sent off for clinical examination. Boris is everywhere, Boris is everything, Boris is absolute, and Boris is indispensable.
Big Boris is watching you!
There's something about the idea of "Boris is everywhere" that is bizarrely appealing ( as an image, rather than anything approaching practical reality, as we've seen recently ) . Like a gurningly, obliviously, and idiotically cheerful sheepdog floating above the clouds in a children's TV programme.
Or the yellow Tellytubby if it habitually crashed into things and broke them.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
All that walking and he'll need lots of shoe repairs.
Interesting. I had him down as a possible future Macmillanite leader of the Tories, but instead he could be the Macmillan of some sort of centrist coalition, possibly including the Liberal Democrats, as well.
A better Excel solution, if you need to calculate with the number later and don’t want it treated as text, is to specify a custom number format as ‘00’ and that will add a leading 0 if the number has less than 2 significant figures. Add more zeros for more significant figures.
To calculate, say, the ratio of bus times to bus numbers?
You might be interested in correlations between bus number and frequency, for example.
Leavers, certainly the ERG et al, believe that keeping no-deal on the table has a major impact on the EU but don't believe that it will have any impact on the UK.
whereas the remainers in parliament believe that no-deal will have a major impact on the UK but a relatively minor one on the EU.
neither of those positions are strictly true as I think it'll be a major impact for both the UK and the EU
It would indeed be a major impact for both. In the case of the EU, it would be their worst case scenario. The UK would have gone, the budget contributions ceased and huge export markets compromised both for manufactured goods and perishable agricultural produce. We can argue about how the UK should view the same scenario, but no-one really regards it as the optimal outcome the UK should be aiming for in the longer term as opposed to "Canada Plus Plus" etc.
So, with the UK having unexpectedly followed through on its threat, there would be a position created where something better to both sides could be agreed through negotiation and there will be an urgency to reaching that mutually beneficial agreement. In the meantime, the EU are gambling and offering nothing in the pretty sure knowledge that Johnson won't be able to take us out on 31st October and in the hope that he won't return triumphant after a GE in a position to offer a genuine threat to leave come what may.
The urgency will undoubtedly exist but it cannot be acted on or resolved quickly as the negotiations change from UK vs EU and heads of state to UK vs EU, national and local parliaments. It will be a nightmare, bringing all sorts of minor vested interests into play and it could not be done quickly.
I think it could be done much more quickly than you think. Probably a short term interim agreement that didn't change the status quo much, just to buy time for a longer term settlement. The difference being that the fact of the UK leaving was established in law, and there would be absolutely no point in the EU prevaricating in an effort to make us stay in in name or just in effect, which has IMO been their game up to now.
But it would not be the EU any longer, it is Walloonian members of the Walloon parliament with their vested interests, coalitions and opportunists repeated across not just 28 national parliaments but also plenty of regional parliaments too. Issues like Gibraltar wont be easy to hide away when one Spanish bloc can make the other bloc look weak by demanding things from the UK. It will be a nightmare.
Not really. In reality the EU has a tendency to implement agreed deals immediately and wait for the Walloons to catch up later.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
All that walking and he'll need lots of shoe repairs.
Very interesting. I had him down as a possible future Macmillanite leader of the Tories, but instead he could the Macmillan of some sort of centrist coalition, possibly including the Liberal Democrats too.
If it survives the coming election it will be an interesting one to look at...
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
All that walking and he'll need lots of shoe repairs.
Very interesting. I had him down as a possible future Macmillanite leader of the Tories, but instead he could the Macmillan of some sort of centrist coalition, possibly including the Liberal Democrats too.
All these new parties will struggle in the short term because of the FPTP system. he has charisma and is a natural leader but starting from scratch at this point is hard. he'd be better off joining the Lib Dems
I am beginning to think the Lib Dems also want a No Deal Brexit. They believe it will help them electorally.
No, it's naivety and inexperience on Swinson's part, prompted partly I guess by strident condemnation of Corbyn from the ChUK defectors. She should have left herself some wriggle room, since if we are staring down the barrel of no deal and it's either that or agreeing to let Corbyn (with the support of all the other opposition parties) take over for a couple of weeks to get the extension she will, I think, be forced to acquiesce in his appointment.
Which is exactly what she wants in order to keep Tory switchers on board. The only way she goes any closer to Corbyn than the other end of an Olympic-sized barge pole, is to be absolutely left with no other choice and the clock at 2 seconds to midnight.
The opposition parties are, it has to be said, putting the national interest before their own interests in blocking no deal. All of them could expect no deal to bring them narrow political advantage at the expense of the Tories, but they have foregone this in order to prevent the national disaster that no deal would bring.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.
Obviously even harder under FPTP.
I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
All that walking and he'll need lots of shoe repairs.
Very interesting. I had him down as a possible future Macmillanite leader of the Tories, but instead he could the Macmillan of some sort of centrist coalition, possibly including the Liberal Democrats too.
All these new parties will struggle in the short term because of the FPTP system. he has charisma and is a natural leader but starting from scratch at this point is hard. he'd be better off joining the Lib Dems
Hed probably be better off standing as an indy and trying to form it after a Brexit election. I'm not clear what new vision he brings this side of Brexit and risks being swept away by it.
Well write a provocative Leaver thread then instead of complaining.
Me and Ms Briskin are thinking of writing a thread for what foods we should be stocking up on in case of a No-deal. Think it's a goer?
Your chippie and kebab shop will be ok Briskin
I think I've had a kebab like once - ready meals all round in this household.
It was a joke, however get that wife of yours cooking , fresh produced every night , no ready meals unless it is a real curry from a good restaurant.
Bit unreconstructed of you malcolm.
Who mashes the turnips in your house ?
My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday. PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
I can't have prompted that, surely ?
I do most of the cooking - but sometimes suspect I'm just a control freak.
Well Friday is usually day I would get an Indian or Chinese, so good prompt. Nice chilli chicken and Singapore noodles.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party.
Mostly that the story you link to describes it as a "movement" or a "campaign" rather than a new party, so there's no particular reason to doubt that his strategy is to wait for Boris Johnson to resign in disgrace from the leadership of the existing Conservative party.
I'm not sure that's true. The election was called after Article 50 was invoked and after the European Council published their negotiating guidelines.
But if there were no need to get a Deal past a Meaningful Vote in parliament, Mrs May would probably not have risked her small majority for a bigger one - is this not a fair assumption?
That had nothing to do with Miller. It was a function of the Grieve amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, which came after the election.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.
Obviously even harder under FPTP.
I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
he'd have a chance under a truly proportional system but even then he'd not be doing what Macron did. the french system provides benefits for the presidents party in the legislature by being held shortly after the presidential election
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.
Obviously even harder under FPTP.
I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
I wonder if he will stand against Johnson? That would be interesting.
Agree that it is hard to see this party cutting through but it will take votes from the Tories and perhaps the Lib dems.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.
Obviously even harder under FPTP.
I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
he'd have a chance under a truly proportional system but even then he'd not be doing what Macron did. the french system provides benefits for the presidents party in the legislature by being held shortly after the presidential election
The best chance for new parties here would be a proportionately elected upper house of say 150 members to do the current Lords role, ten regions returning an average of 15 senators/lords/whatevers voted on some sort of PR with any party getting 5-9% in a region (depending on size) guaranteed a representative. Would give a chance for small parties to gain political presence. Theoretically someone like Mebyon Kernow could get a national representative, or WEP or the new SDP, or the pirates!
Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week
No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -
1. It goes without saying. 2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!
I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party.
Mostly that the story you link to describes it as a "movement" or a "campaign" rather than a new party, so there's no particular reason to doubt that his strategy is to wait for Boris Johnson to resign in disgrace from the leadership of the existing Conservative party.
Ah, so it's not a change in strategy from Stewart.
Mr. Me, that's true, but politics has never been more turbulent.
Change UK could've succeeded if they hadn't buggered it up so badly. Worth noting there was a time they could've had more Con defections and asked them to wait. Not only that, the very high (40s) Con-Lab polling figures were cracked by Change UK, who put a second referendum back on the agenda and helped the Lib Dem resurgence to exist.
what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).
Comments
1) unviable options, like a WA with no form of backstop or replacement, which will never happen
2) Viable options, like leaving with a WA, which can happen
of all the viable options there is a spectrum from 'Sensible ones' which are both politically and economically beneficial (or at least not too detrimental) to the 'bonkers ones' which are either economic or political suicide (probably both).
No-deal is viable but is towards the bonkers end of the spectrum to the remainers and towards the sensible end for the ERG. That is what the fight has always been about
Remain and Leave are two passengers in a driverless car, driving along a road at the top of a cliff.
Leave says "I want to go to the beach. It'll be lovely down there! There's a road down to it, it's a bit windy but don't worry there's crash barriers and everything, we'll be fine if we take over and drive down."
Remain says "I'd much rather stay on the road to our original destination, but if we have to then OK."
Leave says "Driving down the road would take too long, all those S bends. Let's drive off the cliff! We'll get to that lovely beach much quicker!"
Remain says "WTF! You lied to us. We'd much rather stay alive and carry on with our original journey thanks very much!"
The onus is on leave to 1) take the windy but safe road or 2) demonstrate that there is some sort of parachute or wing mechanism that avoids certain death.
I knew you guys would be all over this sort of query.
As a prize you win my ironically named twitter account @stevenexcels
That does rather neglect that May's deal would've sailed through had the likes of pro-EU types such as Miller and Grieve not contrived to give Parliament a 'meaningful say'.
You might as well say that you think leaving with No Deal is "dchgdn4vj.lo".
Seems some scouts do not agree.
PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.
Afternoon Malc!
WTO MFN rules require the EU to give every other WTO member (third country) the exact same trading conditions - unless an FTA (a "deal") has been registered.
The "ban, which the EU might consider, or not, some time in the future" are the trading conditions for third countries, which have already been the law for quite some time and have all the while been applied to third country imports, shaping economic realities on the ground, and will be applied to the UK - automatically - in a No Deal scenario.
PS - still no twitter followers
give it a whirl - @stevenexcels
New man.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Scienceofsport/status/1177474075846823936
As it's a Friday, the same applies to me.
The first day he was retired he asked her what she was cooking for lunch!
She had to point out that she never cooked lunch, just had a sandwich. (She'd been retired from her teaching job for about 10 years.)
That was about 15 years ago; I gather he now cooks once or twice a week.
In my case I take my wife out for a dinner or long lunch at least once a week. Seems to work.
We should meet up. We'd make a good combo.
And what's more, I've just hit on a solution to the Brexit problem that will please everyone and heal all the rifts in our polity. It goes as follows:
jsfjgs,55ynk,
It's not out of the question that I would try it.
But not on a Wednesday or Thursday or Saturday, obviously.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/27/trump-impeachment-analysis-228580
It originally appeared under "Just Another Day in Fucknutsville".
...But the reaction, underway even before she started speaking, made clear that for much of the country, it was just another day in what Rahm Emanuel, when he was Barack Obama’s chief of staff, called the metropolis of “Fucknutsville.” The news may be important, it may be swerving wildly in surprising ways, but never these days is it something that commands reverent attention.
People below a certain age may not have firsthand experience with news events that did indeed command that reaction — and impeachment proceedings against a president unambiguously would have been one of them.
As it happens, I’m above that age. Of four major efforts in U.S. history to impeach presidents, I have vivid, contemporaneous images in mind for three of them...
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512
All that walking and he'll need lots of shoe repairs.
I do most of the cooking - but sometimes suspect I'm just a control freak.
The start of a new consensus.
https://www.facebook.com/brianros/videos/2674294822590357/
All credit to them. So far.
Obviously even harder under FPTP.
I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
‘I’ve never known voters be so promiscuous’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/voters-so-promiscuous-the-pollsters-working-to-predict-next-election
Agree that it is hard to see this party cutting through but it will take votes from the Tories and perhaps the Lib dems.
1. It goes without saying.
2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!
I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.
Change UK could've succeeded if they hadn't buggered it up so badly. Worth noting there was a time they could've had more Con defections and asked them to wait. Not only that, the very high (40s) Con-Lab polling figures were cracked by Change UK, who put a second referendum back on the agenda and helped the Lib Dem resurgence to exist.