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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

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  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kinabalu said:

    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week

    No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -

    1. It goes without saying.
    2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!

    I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.

    Of course! Actually I vary on it, but if I fancy them I just microwave some frozen and whizz them in my mini kenwood with some mint. Mushies are not good in Norfolk chippies I've found
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Presumably this is a new pro May's Withdrawal Agreement plus backstop, anti No Deal and anti Remain centre right party?

    On that basis if it gets to 1% it will be doing well, the LDs are already cornering the En Marche UK market
  • Labour clinging onto 2nd thanks to the alphabet
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769

    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.

    Obviously even harder under FPTP.

    I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
    I agree with all that. If it is an actual party, it could get interesting if he hoovered up the currently whipless Conservatives and a few more. Would take voters from the Conservatives and also some from the LDs (some/many of their former Tory voters). Under FPTP lucky to get any seats, although it could lose a few for both LD and Con. LD Brexit position would be a deal breaker for any Stewart-party - LD alliance, I think, otherwise that could also be interesting.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    IanB2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    SunnyJim said:

    nichomar said:


    It won’t matter a jot if corbyn requests the extension to his vote. No matter what Johnson says he will have failed to deliver on his promise and has to now die in a ditch.

    I'm genuinely surprised that you think it will not make a difference at the next GE if Corbyn requests the extension.

    I think the surrender/betrayal/traitor narrative will sink him...just as it will Boris if he signs it.

    The remainers won't care either way...they're heading for the Lib Dems.

    It is the leavers that will have their vengeance on whoever does the deed.
    Labour leavers are more labour than leaver whilst labour remainers are more remain than labour, quoting from some views I think made by a labour MP. Whilst labour policy is some what convoluted it is definitely not no deal. Therefore requesting the extension is not an issue for corbyn s votes. Meanwhile as far as TBP tending style leavers any failure to leave on 31/10 is Johnson fault after all he promised do or die.
    Labour voters are much more tribal than most others. 'my grandfather voted labour so I should' types. the other thing is that the policies that JC has proposed will shore up those voters because it is the all round package which they look at. Brexit is not the most important issue for them.
    Counter-evidence would be the far greater willingness of Labour voters to vote tactically against the Tories, than vice versa. In very close LibDem/Tory contests, the Labour vote is often driven down to tiny percentages, and I know from long personal experience that even some Labour members are (less so since 2010, obviously, but even during the actual coalition period) prepared to vote tactically to defeat the Tories. Getting Tories to do so to defeat Labour is more difficult.
    Labour/LD tactical voting is the result of 1997. plus that there are a lot labour voters who think "anyone but a tory". Tory leaning voters are more open to argument.
    That’s not really contesting the point. Whilst Labour activists are usually very tribal, I don’t think the same goes for many of their voters, especially nowadays.
    Plenty of evidence of Tor tactical voting stretching back to 1966 when Richard Wainwright won Colne Valley from Labour . More recently Liberal wins in Chesterfield, Bermondsey , Cambridge and Burnley have relied on former Tory voters.
  • Massive corbyn conference bounce...ohhhhhh...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Proper end of days weather outside
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    That had nothing to do with Miller. It was a function of the Grieve amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, which came after the election.

    Ah OK. I thought that the Miller ruling led to May offering the MV which Grieve then amended.

    But checking back I see that you are, needless to say, correct. May's MV was not very 'M' until Grieve got his paws on it.
  • Welcome to the other end of the coconut shy, @egg.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Selebian said:

    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.

    Obviously even harder under FPTP.

    I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
    I agree with all that. If it is an actual party, it could get interesting if he hoovered up the currently whipless Conservatives and a few more. Would take voters from the Conservatives and also some from the LDs (some/many of their former Tory voters). Under FPTP lucky to get any seats, although it could lose a few for both LD and Con. LD Brexit position would be a deal breaker for any Stewart-party - LD alliance, I think, otherwise that could also be interesting.
    As far as I can see, Guido Fawkes is the only one presenting it as a new party.

    Perhaps eventually people will learn not just to believe everything they read on the Internet?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Gove looks like he is four sheets to the wind here
    https://www.facebook.com/brianros/videos/2674294822590357/

    Lunching with Juncker?
    Trying to get one up on him at least
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Labour clinging onto 2nd thanks to the alphabet
    We demand decimal places!!

    The more they see of Boris, the more the voters like that he is standing up for them.
  • Just for bants....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7512509/My-Little-Book-Brexiteers-Want-Stab-notepad-advertised-Amazon.html

    I am guessing there is probably the remainer version as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    kinabalu said:

    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week

    No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -

    1. It goes without saying.
    2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!

    I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.

    Of course! Actually I vary on it, but if I fancy them I just microwave some frozen and whizz them in my mini kenwood with some mint. Mushies are not good in Norfolk chippies I've found
    I prefer Haddock myself
  • Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.

    Obviously even harder under FPTP.

    I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
    I agree with all that. If it is an actual party, it could get interesting if he hoovered up the currently whipless Conservatives and a few more. Would take voters from the Conservatives and also some from the LDs (some/many of their former Tory voters). Under FPTP lucky to get any seats, although it could lose a few for both LD and Con. LD Brexit position would be a deal breaker for any Stewart-party - LD alliance, I think, otherwise that could also be interesting.
    As far as I can see, Guido Fawkes is the only one presenting it as a new party.

    Perhaps eventually people will learn not just to believe everything they read on the Internet?
    With all the deepfake stuff, that needs to be updated to read, see or hear on the internet.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week

    No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -

    1. It goes without saying.
    2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!

    I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.

    Of course! Actually I vary on it, but if I fancy them I just microwave some frozen and whizz them in my mini kenwood with some mint. Mushies are not good in Norfolk chippies I've found
    I prefer Haddock myself
    I was brought up with cod, it was always cod, plaice or skate when I was a kid. I was shocked when teen me ventured up north and went to the chippy to be told 'we dont do cod, we do 'addock!'
  • Egyptian security forces have blocked access to Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the highly symbolic focal point of the 2011 revolution, as part of a wide-ranging crackdown aimed at heading off planned protests against the president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some incentive to go canvassing ?

    ‘I’ve never known voters be so promiscuous’
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/voters-so-promiscuous-the-pollsters-working-to-predict-next-election

    I think the reality will be disappointing
    I remember once when I was in my 20s being invited in by a lady voter to "explore policy" and was surprised when she turned the light down "for comfort". I'd heard of Tories trying to detain canvassers to prevent them from canvassing others, so. I uneasily slipped away.

    I've not had to resist temptation very often, sadly.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Labour are 36 points behind the Tories in the over 65 age range going off the latest YouGov.

    Zip chance of ever winning a general election unless that gap narrows by a large margin.

    Come an election Labour will need to find some retail offer to that age group otherwise they’re toast .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    Selebian said:

    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.

    Obviously even harder under FPTP.

    I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
    I agree with all that. If it is an actual party, it could get interesting if he hoovered up the currently whipless Conservatives and a few more. Would take voters from the Conservatives and also some from the LDs (some/many of their former Tory voters). Under FPTP lucky to get any seats, although it could lose a few for both LD and Con. LD Brexit position would be a deal breaker for any Stewart-party - LD alliance, I think, otherwise that could also be interesting.
    Rory is my MP and he is far too good to waste. Just hope he can and will stand in Penrith and Border - home of moderate Conservatism - again.

  • I remember once when I was in my 20s being invited in by a lady voter to "explore policy" and was surprised when she turned the light down "for comfort". I'd heard of Tories trying to detain canvassers to prevent them from canvassing others, so. I uneasily slipped away.

    I think the accepted phrase is 'I made my excuses and left'.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some incentive to go canvassing ?

    ‘I’ve never known voters be so promiscuous’
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/voters-so-promiscuous-the-pollsters-working-to-predict-next-election

    I think the reality will be disappointing
    I remember once when I was in my 20s being invited in by a lady voter to "explore policy" and was surprised when she turned the light down "for comfort". I'd heard of Tories trying to detain canvassers to prevent them from canvassing others, so. I uneasily slipped away.

    I've not had to resist temptation very often, sadly.
    Mister Palmer, are you trying to seduce me?!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited September 2019

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week

    No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -

    1. It goes without saying.
    2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!

    I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.

    Of course! Actually I vary on it, but if I fancy them I just microwave some frozen and whizz them in my mini kenwood with some mint. Mushies are not good in Norfolk chippies I've found
    I prefer Haddock myself
    I was brought up with cod, it was always cod, plaice or skate when I was a kid. I was shocked when teen me ventured up north and went to the chippy to be told 'we dont do cod, we do 'addock!'
    It is a very north south thing, I doubt if many if any chippies sell cod in Scotland. I presume the cod are landed down south and haddock up north and so have become the staple choice
    PS: I would have cod if no haddock available mind you
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week

    No mention of mushy peas here. Only 2 possible explanations for that -

    1. It goes without saying.
    2. You have cod and chips WITHOUT mushy peas !!!!

    I'm guessing it goes without saying that it's (1) - it goes without saying.

    Of course! Actually I vary on it, but if I fancy them I just microwave some frozen and whizz them in my mini kenwood with some mint. Mushies are not good in Norfolk chippies I've found
    I prefer Haddock myself
    I was brought up with cod, it was always cod, plaice or skate when I was a kid. I was shocked when teen me ventured up north and went to the chippy to be told 'we dont do cod, we do 'addock!'
    It is a very north south thing, I doubt if many if any chippies sell cod in Scotland. I presume the cod are landed down south and haddock up north and so have become the staple choice
    Yeah it's odd really, I mean haddock is now available in most chippies here, plaice now less so and skate occasionally but I'd never had or seen haddock in a chip shop till my late teens
  • kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday.
    PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.

    I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.

    New man.
    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week
    Ahh, Stafford St chip shop. Norwich

    I've just had medium cod and small chips.

    Lovely
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday.
    PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.

    I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.

    New man.
    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week
    Ahh, Stafford St chip shop. Norwich

    I've just had medium cod and small chips.

    Lovely
    That's the puppy
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    Scott_P said:
    The BBC don't make the slightest attempt at objective neutrality over Trump (tricky task I admit) and it is hypocrisy to pick on one presenter, especially a person of colour. I think an apology to her is in order.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    There's the old story of course of Mandelson, while canvassing in Hartlepool seeing mushy peas in a chippy and asking if it was guacamole.

    Although, TBH, I don't recall mushy peas when I lived in the NE, but I do of course from my days in Lancashire.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Scott_P said:
    Seems clear - keep your personal views off the news.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    My wife, I do cup of tea first thing but she cooks everything. I can do a sandwich or beans on toast. I also go collect the occasional curry or chines meal we have on Friday.
    PS: Nigel I will treat her tonight by picking up a Chinese , save her cooking.

    I cook dinner on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and it's always the same one. Not the same every time but for each specific day, i.e. 3 different dinners. So on any given Wednesday the dinner will be precisely the same as it was the previous Wednesday and as it will be the following Wednesday. Ditto for Thursday and Saturday.

    New man.
    Whilst I love to cook I find nothing better on a Friday than a short walk to the best chippy in Norwich for a medium piece of middle cod and chips. Best £5.60 spend of the week
    Ahh, Stafford St chip shop. Norwich

    I've just had medium cod and small chips.

    Lovely
    Lucky boy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Had some 'cajun fries' as chips in our local pub last night. Gently spicy and very, very tasty. Even my Lancastrian wife accepted them as a reasonable alternative to conventional chips.
  • EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Capital O?
    Make that field a text field
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:

    EXCEL question

    I want to type out a bus timetable on Excel (2019)

    but everytime I go for 06 it converts it to just 6

    Anyone help?

    Change the cell format from number to text
    That's exactly what I've been trying - I'm sure I just used to go to Format - Cells - Text but Excel 19 buggered the whole thing up I've been looking for ages now
    '06 works if you want the cell strictly as text
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,388
    nico67 said:

    Labour are 36 points behind the Tories in the over 65 age range going off the latest YouGov.

    Zip chance of ever winning a general election unless that gap narrows by a large margin.

    Come an election Labour will need to find some retail offer to that age group otherwise they’re toast .

    Predominantly a Corbyn issue. No bribes will get those on board who remember the Soviet Union. Assuming someone without Corbyn's horrific baggage takes to the driving seat Labour will be instantly more electable.

    Labour do have a massive short and medium term problem if they prevent Johnson from Brexiting, deal or no deal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    There's the old story of course of Mandelson, while canvassing in Hartlepool seeing mushy peas in a chippy and asking if it was guacamole.

    Although, TBH, I don't recall mushy peas when I lived in the NE, but I do of course from my days in Lancashire.

    When I first had a meal in Nottingham, awaiting the selection process, I saw mushy peas on the menu and thought it was amazingly honest, like "lukewarm soup" or "cold coffee" - I'd no idea anyone actually liked them that way. I was as un-local as it's possible to be, though I worked hard at improving...
  • Labour clinging onto 2nd thanks to the alphabet
    We demand decimal places!!

    The more they see of Boris, the more the voters like that he is standing up for them.
    Until he delivers a no deal Brexit and they lose their job. At which point they realise the only people he stands up for are himself and his wealthy financial backers.
  • philiph said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Agreement on this issue from voters of all parties

    The start of a new consensus.
    Typical of the times that the only thing voters agree on is wrong.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Labour clinging onto 2nd thanks to the alphabet
    We demand decimal places!!

    The more they see of Boris, the more the voters like that he is standing up for them.
    Until he delivers a no deal Brexit and they lose their job. At which point they realise the only people he stands up for are himself and his wealthy financial backers.
    Yeah or until he raises taxes by 100% or invades Mars it brings back compulsory sausages for tea. Etc.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    It wasn’t a Leave header morphing into Provactive Remainery, I simply sought to answer the two questions set at the start. Firstly those who genuinely believe holding two guns to our head and one to theirs is a strong negotiating tactic, as an honest position that can only be judged by the deal they achieve with that tactic, the best deal for UK pushes the negotiation to the very point EU membership still has irreplaceable benefits only available to members.

    The second question was but what if they can’t let go of no deal for a very different reason. There’s Boris government lined up there on the front bench, they either come over all Napoleon, take the hill and then count the dead, that is get it done, clean break, and then tidy up all the pieces; or they admit the only way to leave is with a deal, and by taking no deal off the table could end up a deal they don’t recognise as brexit themselves, or can sell to their own side, and/or negotiation just drag on and on.

    For that second reason for no deal being kept on as an option on the negotiating table, picture this, you have your paper in front of you with a line drawn across it, beneath are those things below your bottom line, your opponents will mention them but you cannot trade, but above the line your trades, where you can compromise (though Farage and even some in your party will call the compromises surrender).

    Is this not honest anatomy of the situation they find themselves in? They just can’t let go of no deal for a deal they can’t sell or even believe in. But, if they use the clean break option, it will be forever remembered as a far cry from the promised safety net of a deal that helped get leave just over the line in 2016.

    This was being fair to where leave are now. It’s fair not necessarily remain spin to call this a difficult place for leave.

    And I mentioned one example of the added bureaucracy in my header, when specific examples are used the other side start to pull it apart or talk about mitigation “they don’t just like eating prawns in Spain but in Uruguay too you know. They put them on their pizzas and call them a ‘Guayan”. But for all the argument over tariffs, let us not forget one of the main reasons for joining, staying in, helping to create EU, and if you are leave or remain can at at least agree, doing away with all that bureaucracy and the hidden and mounting costs of that bureaucracy has been very good to have?
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    SunnyJim said:


    Anything better than May's Deal will serve its purpose.

    I'm not even sure it needs to be 'better', just make it different enough so that everyone can save face.

    I honestly believe that the vast majority of MP's would take the chance now of getting Brexit done.

    Yes, the would be extremists on either end who would be like the Japanese WW2 soldiers still fighting on in the 70s but everyone else would breathe a sigh of relief.

    We could get back to the quaint days of joshing about the national meltdown over Greggs pasties having 2p put on them.
    If do a WA we will never get Brexit 'done'. Farage will cry betrayal for evermore. We will spend the next 2 years arguing about the future relationship just as divided politically. The economy will continue to atrophy as the EU quietly derisks itself to another UK nervous breakdown. Meanwhile as Barnier says 'The clock will be ticking'. If MPs vote for a deal all they are doing is pressing snooze. That's why they should check with the electorate if they still want to go through with this.....
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    spudgfsh said:

    what do people make of this. Rory Stewart to launch new party. I think that there is space for a moderate centre right party (we don't have one at the moment).

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177595212560064512

    Even in a country like Ireland, with STV, most new parties sink without a trace. They've had loads of new parties in Ireland over the last fifteen years or so and their record has generally not been earth-shattering.

    Obviously even harder under FPTP.

    I like Rory Stewart. I think the country would be a better place if it had room for him in politics. I do not have high hopes.
    I agree with all that. If it is an actual party, it could get interesting if he hoovered up the currently whipless Conservatives and a few more. Would take voters from the Conservatives and also some from the LDs (some/many of their former Tory voters). Under FPTP lucky to get any seats, although it could lose a few for both LD and Con. LD Brexit position would be a deal breaker for any Stewart-party - LD alliance, I think, otherwise that could also be interesting.
    Rory is my MP and he is far too good to waste. Just hope he can and will stand in Penrith and Border - home of moderate Conservatism - again.

    Oh that we had voted for AV. He might have stood a chance.......
This discussion has been closed.