You do realize that if if they agree an election and parliament is then prorogued for that election there is no oversight to force Johnson to comply with the extension bill? So why would anybody give him such freedom. If you think he wouldn’t break the law.....
The discussion this morning has been based around Johnson not complying with the extension request because he won't be PM.
It will be for Corbyn (or Beckett?) to ask for the extension prior to a GE.
No I’m referring to a situation where they are presented with a short one line bill for an election which if passed would have Johnson as PM and parliament prorogued until after the election. Not following a VONC
I have had a go at one of those Brexit probability trees.
Last month I had something like 40% No Deal, 40% Deal Brexit, and 20% Remain.
I’d now say, cutting through all the complexity of GONUs and elections, that we’re now at something like:
10% No Deal, 55% Deal Brexit, 35% Remain.
The path to Remain is through another referendum which now looks very likely.
The chance of exiting by October 31 I have down as 15%.
No, I will not show my working.
I agree a 2nd referendum looks rather likely.
I presume you are predicting the Brexit end-state, and not the state of play on Hallowe'en 2019. If so, there's a problem. What is the end-state? Will we ever get there?
Imagine, say, that Revoke somehow won out. And we never left. Would that be the end state? Clearly not, because then there would be pressure for the Tories to put leave-without-a-referendum in their next manifesto, and at some point they would win, and out we go. And on we go.
Brexit is likely to last the rest of our lives, and beyond. It will become part of the furniture. It will never go away. I know this is cheering.
Anyway, I have to go do my Blue Steel, so here's my prediction, for the Brexit state of play by the end of December 2021.
No Deal: 10% Deal: 30% Remain (probably after a plebiscite): 40% Some kind of limbo (e.g. endless extensions): 15% Black swan (an intervening war rendering Brexit irrelevant?): 5%
It’s like the media know something we don’t and having wink wink nudge nudge. Page five of yesterday’s mail had photograph of Boris, or should I says BJs, pole dancing friend putting Boris in her mouth.
It’s like the media know something we don’t and having wink wink nudge nudge. Page five of yesterday’s mail had photograph of Boris, or should I says BJs, pole dancing friend putting Boris in her mouth.
This is Slocombe’s pussy on speed. I think it is perfectly possible to talk about Oral Questions without implying BJ likes BJs from pole dancers in Shoreditch.
Can one of our learned lawyers here explain the significance of the missing signed affidavit ? I understand this was supposed to inform the court why Parliament needed to be prorogued. But no one was prepared to sign it. In fact, rumour has it that Alexander Johnson and Rees-Mogg were told not to sign it.
I don't doubt that Ms Hale is eminent and clever, and studiously impartial.
But of necessity this judgement has been made by a Remainer elite, because they ARE the elite. It won't go down well.
People really need to leave judges alone, we really don’t want to go down the US route of politicising them. Trying to find tenuous links like this doesn’t help move things forward, I’m sure if there was a genuine conflict of interest or involvement with those in the case, Lady Hale would have recused herself.
Lady Hale is not an issue because the judgment stands on its own, its reasoning clear for all to see. Personally, I am quite sure she does her job impartially and as free from bias as is possible for anyone.
Besides, what about the other 10 Justices? Is someone going to suggest that all were offered some sort of anti-Brexit inducement?
Ad hominem attacks like this are just stupid. What they really reveal are the fears of the person making them.
These attacks are all seriously defamatory as well because they are saying that the judges have deliberately failed to comply with the most basic duty of a judge.
It’s like the media know something we don’t and having wink wink nudge nudge. Page five of yesterday’s mail had photograph of Boris, or should I says BJs, pole dancing friend putting Boris in her mouth.
This is Slocombe’s pussy on speed. I think it is perfectly possible to talk about Oral Questions without implying BJ likes BJs from pole dancers in Shoreditch.
Really? I think it’s, You know, like when someone does the joke about the Volga Boatman
Comments
I presume you are predicting the Brexit end-state, and not the state of play on Hallowe'en 2019. If so, there's a problem. What is the end-state? Will we ever get there?
Imagine, say, that Revoke somehow won out. And we never left. Would that be the end state? Clearly not, because then there would be pressure for the Tories to put leave-without-a-referendum in their next manifesto, and at some point they would win, and out we go. And on we go.
Brexit is likely to last the rest of our lives, and beyond. It will become part of the furniture. It will never go away. I know this is cheering.
Anyway, I have to go do my Blue Steel, so here's my prediction, for the Brexit state of play by the end of December 2021.
No Deal: 10%
Deal: 30%
Remain (probably after a plebiscite): 40%
Some kind of limbo (e.g. endless extensions): 15%
Black swan (an intervening war rendering Brexit irrelevant?): 5%
Ta-ra.
It’s like the media know something we don’t and having wink wink nudge nudge. Page five of yesterday’s mail had photograph of Boris, or should I says BJs, pole dancing friend putting Boris in her mouth.
I think it is perfectly possible to talk about Oral Questions without implying BJ likes BJs from pole dancers in Shoreditch.
Later.