politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebels with a cause
Excl: Expelled Tory rebels plotting to oust Boris Johnson as an MP by running a candidate against him in his Uxbridge marginal seathttps://t.co/inaQ9St31N
I am not convinced pacts, standing down for people and decapitation strategies actually work.. I think this oversimplifies peoples reasons for voting for a particular party and also galvanises the party you are trying to oust and its supporters..
I think it just doesn't look like fair play to the average voter and so it just doesn't wash well.. Its for this reason I oppose a brexit party/tory pact..
Bad idea for Rory to be the one. We need him in Penrith and Border where he is highly regarded and should win against all comers. Goodness knows who will win in Uxbridge but it won't be the 'one nation Tory but not Boris' candidate. A Boris decapitation strategy requires a focus on both Brexit taking votes off Boris, and a Lib/Lab cabal, with an agreement as to which of them is the front runner, doing the same. Only a Lib/Lab candidate can win.
This video has apparently been "demonetised" by YouTube, which means they don't approve of it. It's a couple of British comedians interviewing Andy Ngo about Antifa.
Mr. JS, an awful lot of stuff gets demonetised on Youtube. Can be videogames (not advertiser-friendly) and I understand even the family-friendly stuff has recently been thrown into the Pit of the Algorithm.
This video has apparently been "demonetised" by YouTube, which means they don't approve of it. It's a couple of British comedians interviewing Andy Ngo about Antifa.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MazigYOwK3A
Yep I've seen that. I quite like triggernometry. This sort of things needs to be engaged with by liberals not ridiculed.
My sympathies for your courageous sister. She's got the right stuff, that's for sure
Yep - she is unbelievable. She's also been battling cancer for the last two years (successfully it is currently looking like, touch wood). I am in constant awe of her.
Bad idea for Rory to be the one. We need him in Penrith and Border where he is highly regarded and should win against all comers. Goodness knows who will win in Uxbridge but it won't be the 'one nation Tory but not Boris' candidate. A Boris decapitation strategy requires a focus on both Brexit taking votes off Boris, and a Lib/Lab cabal, with an agreement as to which of them is the front runner, doing the same. Only a Lib/Lab candidate can win.
My guess is that Johnson's vote could go down, but that his majority will go up. The LibDem will take quite a few votes from the Labour candidate, who is Momentum approved and comes with the usual history of anti-Semitic behaviour.
Very strong day for Sterling. With ECB rates going even more negative and the US likely to cut again Sterling does have a bit going for it at the moment.
Bad idea for Rory to be the one. We need him in Penrith and Border where he is highly regarded and should win against all comers. Goodness knows who will win in Uxbridge but it won't be the 'one nation Tory but not Boris' candidate. A Boris decapitation strategy requires a focus on both Brexit taking votes off Boris, and a Lib/Lab cabal, with an agreement as to which of them is the front runner, doing the same. Only a Lib/Lab candidate can win.
My guess is that Johnson's vote could go down, but that his majority will go up. The LibDem will take quite a few votes from the Labour candidate, who is Momentum approved and comes with the usual history of anti-Semitic behaviour.
This is where there is a question about Lib Dem's desire to bring about Remain. They are way third in the seat. If they just do not put up a candidate and so does the Greens, Johnson is in big trouble.
Very strong day for Sterling. With ECB rates going even more negative and the US likely to cut again Sterling does have a bit going for it at the moment.
No offence but is it all really relevant? By your own admission it's due to factors elsewhere.
There hasn't been too much of a shift lately, perhaps hard brexit is factored in? Or maybe markets still don't believe it/are convinced it will be stopped.
Flicked over to the golf in the hope it will bring a Smith wicket at the Oval.
Half a success. Wicket. Not Smith. Good effort though.
Excellent. I'll try harder next time.
Smith dropped. You're getting closer
You honestly begin to wonder if Root is going to survive as captain. He needs to get focused on his batting and fielding.
Tbf that would have been an excellent catch. Heard a stat that no England captain had lost 2 Ashes series and kept the job for over 100 years. Need to stop giving the job to our best batsman.
Bad idea for Rory to be the one. We need him in Penrith and Border where he is highly regarded and should win against all comers. Goodness knows who will win in Uxbridge but it won't be the 'one nation Tory but not Boris' candidate. A Boris decapitation strategy requires a focus on both Brexit taking votes off Boris, and a Lib/Lab cabal, with an agreement as to which of them is the front runner, doing the same. Only a Lib/Lab candidate can win.
My guess is that Johnson's vote could go down, but that his majority will go up. The LibDem will take quite a few votes from the Labour candidate, who is Momentum approved and comes with the usual history of anti-Semitic behaviour.
Flicked over to the golf in the hope it will bring a Smith wicket at the Oval.
Half a success. Wicket. Not Smith. Good effort though.
Excellent. I'll try harder next time.
Smith dropped. You're getting closer
You honestly begin to wonder if Root is going to survive as captain. He needs to get focused on his batting and fielding.
Tbf that would have been an excellent catch. Heard a stat that no England captain had lost 2 Ashes series and kept the job for over 100 years. Need to stop giving the job to our best batsman.
Not a half chance, though. A genuine drop.
Not only being captain, but also playing more cricket than just about anyone else over the last twelve months, has left him looking more than a bit jaded. Which, for someone who normally looks about eighteen, is a strange look.
Very strong day for Sterling. With ECB rates going even more negative and the US likely to cut again Sterling does have a bit going for it at the moment.
No offence but is it all really relevant? By your own admission it's due to factors elsewhere.
There hasn't been too much of a shift lately, perhaps hard brexit is factored in? Or maybe markets still don't believe it/are convinced it will be stopped.
I think the latter actually which is why it is relevant. And, as we agree, there is a lot going on elsewhere which is pretty uniformly negative.
If it was me I would be tempted to put it down to rhetoric/rioja/the internet but it wasn't me. It was you and if you as the recipient feel, as you have every right to, that it was not appropriate then he should absolutely apologise.
Flicked over to the golf in the hope it will bring a Smith wicket at the Oval.
Half a success. Wicket. Not Smith. Good effort though.
Excellent. I'll try harder next time.
Smith dropped. You're getting closer
You honestly begin to wonder if Root is going to survive as captain. He needs to get focused on his batting and fielding.
Tbf that would have been an excellent catch. Heard a stat that no England captain had lost 2 Ashes series and kept the job for over 100 years. Need to stop giving the job to our best batsman.
Bring back Brearley. Or Fletcher.
Yes, I know, I know. TBH Can't think of a really captain-ish captain at the moment.
Very strong day for Sterling. With ECB rates going even more negative and the US likely to cut again Sterling does have a bit going for it at the moment.
We're only a revoke of Article 50 away from a lovely strong currency again.
Another interpretation of that YouGov table is that, for every 10 Leave voters who voted Labour in 2017, Labour would only have a net lead of 2 were the same voters to vote again now. Overall that is excellent news for the Tories. The equivalent table in Opinium leads to the same conclusion, although the Conservatives have a slightly higher share of Labour Leave voters there and the Brexit Party a lower share.
The answer to your question is no. Opinium find that with a 4 way choice including Farage, 23% of 2017 Labour Leave voters would prefer Corbyn and 24% Johnson as best PM. When it's reduced to a 2 way choice, the figure is 36% for Johnson and 24% for Corbyn. So overwhelmingly, those who prefer Farage will as a second choice go for Johnson rather than Corbyn.
Seeing the Cricket and that Australia really are not that good a team except that Steve Smith has scored 33% of their runs, really does make me think of the Tories really not being very good but hoping desperately that Boris, through charisma and campaigning, will cover up for their deficiencies and see them to victory.
I think I read somewhere that the Tories outpolled Labour by about 2 to 1 in the wards in Boris's seat in the 2018 Hillingdon council elections, (while it was the other way round in John McDonnell's seat, also in Hillingdon)
I really don't think there is any danger of Boris losing at all. I recall the same arguments being made about Michael Howard supposedly being at risk in 2005 and he won by a country mile.
Very strong day for Sterling. With ECB rates going even more negative and the US likely to cut again Sterling does have a bit going for it at the moment.
We're only a revoke of Article 50 away from a lovely strong currency again.
Probably. And the markets seem to have a feeling it is getting closer.
You really are hitting this hard, that people come and say mean things to a politician and that apparntly this is surprising when we know for a fact the country is very very divided. I hope he doesn't win a majority but it is possible and won't all these hilarious sketches seem very silly then.
I was on at the time last night and I think emotions (and alcohol) were running high!
Fine. We've all been there but then apologise.
As someone who has read this site since the mid 2000s (and who sometimes comments too): I don’t think there’s much to be gained by being censorious about Sean.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
I was on at the time last night and I think emotions (and alcohol) were running high!
Fine. We've all been there but then apologise.
As someone who has read this site since the mid 2000s (and who sometimes comments too): I don’t think there’s much to be gained by being censorious about Sean.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
If it was me I would be tempted to put it down to rhetoric/rioja/the internet but it wasn't me. It was you and if you as the recipient feel, as you have every right to, that it was not appropriate then he should absolutely apologise.
Have to say he sounds like he could not beat a carpet, just put it down to drink and move on. Be different if he knocked on your door.
You really are hitting this hard, that people come and say mean things to a politician and that apparntly this is surprising when we know for a fact the country is very very divided. I hope he doesn't win a majority but it is possible and won't all these hilarious sketches seem very silly then.
I think it's 50/50 that he wins a majority. But the DUP will probably help him out again if he falls just short.
Boris's campaigning in these Northern seats is spot on. Coming across a few gobshites on the rounds is just what happens and the sympathies of the voters he is after will be with Boris. These personal engagements provide a very good contrast with Corbyn ranting away at rallies decked with union banners and red flags.
Notwithstanding the legal possibilities of being PM not in the Commons, if the Tories won a majority thanks to BoJo but he lost his own seat, who might be entrusted to take up the baton as the senior Borisite candidate until the man himself got back in somehow?
I was on at the time last night and I think emotions (and alcohol) were running high!
Fine. We've all been there but then apologise.
As someone who has read this site since the mid 2000s (and who sometimes comments too): I don’t think there’s much to be gained by being censorious about Sean.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
Is he entertaining? Yes.
All true but his actions last night were bullying and perhaps illegal. Sean is Sean doesn't cut it.
All he has to do is realise he has upset someone and before he gets stuck into the rioja again apologise.
Seeing the Cricket and that Australia really are not that good a team except that Steve Smith has scored 33% of their runs, really does make me think of the Tories really not being very good but hoping desperately that Boris, through charisma and campaigning, will cover up for their deficiencies and see them to victory.
If it was me I would be tempted to put it down to rhetoric/rioja/the internet but it wasn't me. It was you and if you as the recipient feel, as you have every right to, that it was not appropriate then he should absolutely apologise.
Have to say he sounds like he could not beat a carpet, just put it down to drink and move on. Be different if he knocked on your door.
Agree Malc but it seems that @Noo is upset and it would be a shame to lose either of them.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
Seeing the Cricket and that Australia really are not that good a team except that Steve Smith has scored 33% of their runs, really does make me think of the Tories really not being very good but hoping desperately that Boris, through charisma and campaigning, will cover up for their deficiencies and see them to victory.
Seeing the Cricket and that Australia really are not that good a team except that Steve Smith has scored 33% of their runs, really does make me think of the Tories really not being very good but hoping desperately that Boris, through charisma and campaigning, will cover up for their deficiencies and see them to victory.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
If he posted a bit less often he’d be amusing but as it stands HYUFD is making the site less readable. He’s bonkers and also malign. If I was a Smithson I’d ban him.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
He's just processing the fact that he supports the Labour Party. He's lashing out.
So the plan is to just keep bowling at the other end. Seems to have more potential than most ideas to date.
It's exactly how the first game of the series went as well. The better team has retained the Ashes, but neither are world beaters (though Australia have 2 in their side).
I was on at the time last night and I think emotions (and alcohol) were running high!
Fine. We've all been there but then apologise.
As someone who has read this site since the mid 2000s (and who sometimes comments too): I don’t think there’s much to be gained by being censorious about Sean.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
You still favour the SC over ruling it however a few things jumped out which I missed earlier .
The court took particular issue with when the order to prorogue was called . That being whilst the house wasn’t sitting during the summer recess so stopped MPs from passing legislation to restrict it.
The court reasoned that even though a normal recess was due for the conferences MPs vote on that and may have chosen to not have them or shorten the length .
Bizarrely not a single avernment was made , that being a statement of the clear reasons behind the suspension.
It seems as if the government was overly confident that the court would simply rule the matter was not justiciable and simply fought the appeal on that .
You really are hitting this hard, that people come and say mean things to a politician and that apparntly this is surprising when we know for a fact the country is very very divided. I hope he doesn't win a majority but it is possible and won't all these hilarious sketches seem very silly then.
All news articles are tomorrows' chip paper.
Given that BoZo's electoral strategy as far as it can be discerned is predicated on winning Northern seats from Labour, these interactions might inform those wishing to bet on the likely outcomes.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
If he posted a bit less often he’d be amusing but as it stands HYUFD is making the site less readable. He’s bonkers and also malign. If I was a Smithson I’d ban him.
If I was a Smithson, yubby dibby dibby dibby dibby dibby dibby dum.
In the old days, when tim the election reverse indicator was spamming the site, quoting polling non stop to see off anyone's personal opinion was seen as a good thing
What was it? "PB Anecdote vs Polling"? How we laughed
Boris's campaigning in these Northern seats is spot on. Coming across a few gobshites on the rounds is just what happens and the sympathies of the voters he is after will be with Boris. These personal engagements provide a very good contrast with Corbyn ranting away at rallies decked with union banners and red flags.
Describing the woman in Doncaster as a gobshite is ridiculous and insulting.
That description could be better applied to the chap she was debating with.
Bizarrely not a single avernment was made , that being a statement of the clear reasons behind the suspension.
It seems as if the government was overly confident that the court would simply rule the matter was not justiciable and simply fought the appeal on that .
This of course blew up in their faces .
The lack of a signed statement from the Government as to their intentions was a key factor.
As noted earlier, the Government could potentially influence the outcome of the SC hearing by providing sworn statements now.
No such statement has apparently been provided, from much will be inferred.
If it was me I would be tempted to put it down to rhetoric/rioja/the internet but it wasn't me. It was you and if you as the recipient feel, as you have every right to, that it was not appropriate then he should absolutely apologise.
Have to say he sounds like he could not beat a carpet, just put it down to drink and move on. Be different if he knocked on your door.
Agree Malc but it seems that @Noo is upset and it would be a shame to lose either of them.
Very true Topping , however it is impossible to be on the internet and not have someone giving you a hard time of it. Noo should certainly not stop posting because of it for sure.
I was on at the time last night and I think emotions (and alcohol) were running high!
Fine. We've all been there but then apologise.
As someone who has read this site since the mid 2000s (and who sometimes comments too): I don’t think there’s much to be gained by being censorious about Sean.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
He was always a bit eccentric and obsessed with polls and his interpretations of them. But lately, he has gone really ………..
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
He was always a bit eccentric and obsessed with polls and his interpretations of them. But lately, he has gone really ………..
It's the first sign of acceptance of the impending accession of Prime Minister Swinson. Bringer of Liberalism. Breaker of chains.
Bizarrely not a single avernment was made , that being a statement of the clear reasons behind the suspension.
It seems as if the government was overly confident that the court would simply rule the matter was not justiciable and simply fought the appeal on that .
This of course blew up in their faces .
The lack of a signed statement from the Government as to their intentions was a key factor.
As noted earlier, the Government could potentially influence the outcome of the SC hearing by providing sworn statements now.
No such statement has apparently been provided, from much will be inferred.
Well with Gove refusing to release documents , messages related to the suspension that’s not a good look . All messages, emails in this context are public record .
The problem is who will sign something if they worry there’s loads of contradictory info out there .
Bizarrely not a single avernment was made , that being a statement of the clear reasons behind the suspension.
It seems as if the government was overly confident that the court would simply rule the matter was not justiciable and simply fought the appeal on that .
This of course blew up in their faces .
The lack of a signed statement from the Government as to their intentions was a key factor.
As noted earlier, the Government could potentially influence the outcome of the SC hearing by providing sworn statements now.
No such statement has apparently been provided, from much will be inferred.
Well with Gove refusing to release documents , messages related to the suspension that’s not a good look . All messages, emails in this context are public record .
The problem is who will sign something if they worry there’s loads of contradictory info out there .
No one wants to sign a sworn affidavit. It tells you everything.
@HYUFD wrote this on a previous thread - “We are in a domestic civil war with diehard Remainers, there is no more room for appeasement as there was not in 1940 either”.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
He was always a bit eccentric and obsessed with polls and his interpretations of them. But lately, he has gone really ………..
He has a very worrying monomania/idee fixe regarding “diehard remainers”. It comes across as a bit mad.
I did not but have seen clips on politics live and sky news. The Joe Biden ones are a hard watch if you are a supporter of his. I think the Democrats will lose in 2020 if they nominate him.
Comments
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1172524920531816448?s=20
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1172524619338850304?s=20
I think it just doesn't look like fair play to the average voter and so it just doesn't wash well.. Its for this reason I oppose a brexit party/tory pact..
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1172526693409574912?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1172526658110328835?s=20
This video has apparently been "demonetised" by YouTube, which means they don't approve of it. It's a couple of British comedians interviewing Andy Ngo about Antifa.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MazigYOwK3A
Indeed – a Catch 22 I think
My sympathies for your courageous sister. She's got the right stuff, that's for sure
Beaconsfield - 49% leave
Ruslip Northwood - 47% leave
Uxbridge is estimated at 58% leave so much more Brexitty, although a smaller majority
There hasn't been too much of a shift lately, perhaps hard brexit is factored in? Or maybe markets still don't believe it/are convinced it will be stopped.
Heard a stat that no England captain had lost 2 Ashes series and kept the job for over 100 years. Need to stop giving the job to our best batsman.
Not only being captain, but also playing more cricket than just about anyone else over the last twelve months, has left him looking more than a bit jaded.
Which, for someone who normally looks about eighteen, is a strange look.
Yes, I know, I know. TBH Can't think of a really captain-ish captain at the moment.
My only other option seems to be boring myself senseless with the Monaco GP highlights on Sky Sports F1.
But even Aussie wickets aren't worth that ordeal in mundanity.
The answer to your question is no. Opinium find that with a 4 way choice including Farage, 23% of 2017 Labour Leave voters would prefer Corbyn and 24% Johnson as best PM. When it's reduced to a 2 way choice, the figure is 36% for Johnson and 24% for Corbyn. So overwhelmingly, those who prefer Farage will as a second choice go for Johnson rather than Corbyn.
I really don't think there is any danger of Boris losing at all. I recall the same arguments being made about Michael Howard supposedly being at risk in 2005 and he won by a country mile.
He’s something of a fantasist: I really do doubt he’s living the life he claims to - it’s probably a lot more humble. I hesitate to use other terms.
Adopting his new “Byronic” persona is one thing, but combined with asking the site owners to expunge his previous contributions shows that despite regularly abusing people on this site, he’s probably the most needy contributor. He feels a compulsion to post here.
Is he entertaining? Yes.
These personal engagements provide a very good contrast with Corbyn ranting away at rallies decked with union banners and red flags.
All he has to do is realise he has upset someone and before he gets stuck into the rioja again apologise.
Equating people who want to Remain in the EU with Nazis is, frankly, a disgraceful statement for him to make.
You still favour the SC over ruling it however a few things jumped out which I missed earlier .
The court took particular issue with when the order to prorogue was called . That being whilst the house wasn’t sitting during the summer recess so stopped MPs from passing legislation to restrict it.
The court reasoned that even though a normal recess was due for the conferences MPs vote on that and may have chosen to not have them or shorten the length .
Bizarrely not a single avernment was made , that being a statement of the clear reasons behind the suspension.
It seems as if the government was overly confident that the court would simply rule the matter was not justiciable and simply fought the appeal on that .
This of course blew up in their faces .
Given that BoZo's electoral strategy as far as it can be discerned is predicated on winning Northern seats from Labour, these interactions might inform those wishing to bet on the likely outcomes.
In the old days, when tim the election reverse indicator was spamming the site, quoting polling non stop to see off anyone's personal opinion was seen as a good thing
What was it? "PB Anecdote vs Polling"? How we laughed
That description could be better applied to the chap she was debating with.
As noted earlier, the Government could potentially influence the outcome of the SC hearing by providing sworn statements now.
No such statement has apparently been provided, from much will be inferred.
Those were simpler times.
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1172541121504972800?s=20
The problem is who will sign something if they worry there’s loads of contradictory info out there .
The Joe Biden ones are a hard watch if you are a supporter of his.
I think the Democrats will lose in 2020 if they nominate him.