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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his ea

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Well, they like to think of themselves as very cultured.
    What they culture in their navels may be of endless fascination to them but the rest of us have long since lost interest. It looks like the next Parliament just might be less dominated by remainers than this one and having someone less partisan in the chair may help. How big the change is remains to be seen but a lot of remainers seem to be calling it a day.
  • Liberal Democrats just stated they’d go straight for revocation in a deadline emergency.

    You never go straight to revocation...
    The defenestration of Margaret Thatcher by Parliamentary chicanery, despite her election victories, in 1990 is still causing huge ripples in the Conservative Party almost 30 years later. In fact, it’s arguably the original sin that’s led inexorably to the current divisions.

    If that was the case for simply changing a successful Prime Minister, imagine what it’d be like for overturning a democratic vote unilaterally.
    It would have all been so different if the Tory party had replaced Mrs Thatcher over the Poll Tax.
    Or if she’d be convinced to drop it prior to the next election and completing in full her 3rd term, before stepping down shortly before it.

    Michael Heseltine is part of the ghost of those years. He’s still around and just as pompous and arrogant as he’s always been.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.

    And Corbyn could stop him by voting for an election on the 15th this evening. Frightening that he should not take that opportunity.
    Lol.
    Well he is never going to do that with ratings like this


    https://order-order.com/2019/09/09/swinson-popular-corbyn-labour-2017-voters/

    More absolute bell end than boy
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited September 2019

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.
    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.

    There is an election this year....as soon as the delay is signed off- There is not a chance in hell that BJ wants this Parliament to live a day longer than necessary....

    1.25 is free money

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoZo finds another bus

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1171138084576120832

    to throw the DUP under...

    I've joked about it being a good idea, but I really don't see the political upside for Boris. Theoretically if he could get it through then he can hope in an election that the Faragist cry of betrayal will not prevent leavers showering him with praise and a majority, and with a majority the DUP can go back to moaning to themselves about how righteous they and they alone are, but discarding them like this, pissing off the ERG spartans in the process (since anything but no deal does that) and those who were genuinely against the NI only backstop, and with no Labour incentive to back a deal, and it is just ruining his good polling for no gain.

    It's only potential is the long mooted theory which applied to May's deal, which is that if Labour let it through then they would have a good chance of winning an election as angry leavers deserted the Tories. But it didn't work for May and won't work here surely?
    It might have stood a chance if Boris had come out with it the day he had become PM but the opponents of No Deal have him right where they want him and will surely now leave him to hang out to dry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    ... or resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    One problem is Boris only brings a deal to the House if he thinks the alternative is remaining, given he is staking it all on no deal or a unicorn. But that means when he does bring something his opponents know he thinks remain is winning, further encouraging him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Are these Tories really as pig-shit obtuse as they appear? Deal or extend.

    That’s it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    He has to ask for an extension on the 19th. It is not government policy before then to seek an extension
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Don't see much discussion about the reports France wants a 2 year extension.

    Surely if that goes ahead then if there's no deal we just leave by revoking the 1972 Act and leave that way?

    You speak as if an extension can be imposed by the EU. That’s another fevered oppression fantasy - if we don’t want an extension we don’t have to take it, you can’t impose an extension, it has to be agreed. In any event Boris can’t “revoke” an Act, Parliament repeals it, and we know your opinion on Parliament, but the 1972 Act has already been repealed by the Withdrawal Act but the repeal has not yet been implemented. The Commencement Order on the repeal has been signed to take effect from 31/10. That order would be superseded if we accept an extension, if we don’t then the repeal takes effect as ordered on 31/10.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    What if the deal he gets is a £3 meal deal?

    I mean, in all seriousness, what exactly constitutes a "deal" according to the letter of the law?
  • algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:


    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.

    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    I think there’s only one viable day, assuming the convention of holding an election on a Thursday is upheld: Thursday 12 December. 19 December is too close to Christmas and earlier relies on the two main parties agreeing in advance on a date. Boris Johnson now has no motivation for seeking an early election directly immediately and if Jeremy Corbyn goes for it he will bring a vote of no confidence, which requires another 14 days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:
    That's the first really convincing argument I've seen for proroguing Parliament,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    He has to ask for an extension on the 19th. It is not government policy before then to seek an extension
    Indeed but that’s not what the risible Raab was saying.
  • tyson said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1).
    If .
    Ild.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.

    There is an election this year....as soon as the delay is signed off- There is not a chance in hell that BJ wants this Parliament to live a day longer than necessary....

    1.25 is free money

    I’m afraid it isn’t.

    If BJ alone could be the arbiter of when an election were being held we’d already be having one. It takes two to tango and the inertia against calling one is huge; it depends on the political convenience of a whole host of factors, including both main parties believing it could work for them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    How well is Cummings' wargaming working out right now, I wonder?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoZo finds another bus

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1171138084576120832

    to throw the DUP under...

    I've joked about it being a good idea, but I really don't see the political upside for Boris. Theoretically if he could get it through then he can hope in an election that the Faragist cry of betrayal will not prevent leavers showering him with praise and a majority, and with a majority the DUP can go back to moaning to themselves about how righteous they and they alone are, but discarding them like this, pissing off the ERG spartans in the process (since anything but no deal does that) and those who were genuinely against the NI only backstop, and with no Labour incentive to back a deal, and it is just ruining his good polling for no gain.

    It's only potential is the long mooted theory which applied to May's deal, which is that if Labour let it through then they would have a good chance of winning an election as angry leavers deserted the Tories. But it didn't work for May and won't work here surely?
    The Withdrawal Agreement with the NI only backstop has no chance of getting through the Commons unless Boris wins the next general election with an overall majority anyway as even if it wins over a few more ERG MPs the DUP will vote against it as will all the other opposition parties that voted against the Withdrawal Agreement 3 times, so it is just theoretical at the moment
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    He has to ask for an extension on the 19th. It is not government policy before then to seek an extension
    Indeed but that’s not what the risible Raab was saying.
    He said the PM will go on the 17th to seek a deal or to leave on 31st. That's government policy. If he cant get a deal he would then have to request an extension on the 19th. He doesn't have to mention, give credence to, or give a toss about an extension until October 19th surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Why is the opposition more interested in attempting to humiliate Johnson rather than absolubtely guarantee we don't leave the EU without a deal ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited September 2019

    How well is Cummings' wargaming working out right now, I wonder?

    Up there with the Empire of Japan deciding to attack the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep The United States OUT of the Second World War.

    Or for geeks up there with Emperor Palpatine allowing the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's the first really convincing argument I've seen for proroguing Parliament,
    It’s just as well that Parliament didn’t have anything important to do today, isn’t it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    tyson said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.
    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.

    There is an election this year....as soon as the delay is signed off- There is not a chance in hell that BJ wants this Parliament to live a day longer than necessary....

    Give over. Jezza will still be cowering behind the sofa in April! :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    How well is Cummings' wargaming working out right now, I wonder?

    He's through to the second round of his local Dungeons and Dragons contest.

    The politics is a bit shit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited September 2019
    Raab:

    "Respecting the referendum must also mean that this house allows us to leave without a deal if Brussels leave no other credible choice. Taking that option off the table severely weakened our negotiating position."

    So now we see the seeds of the Johnson climbdown defence... "I had no other choice because the HoC cut my negotiating legs off."

    It will still be a climbdown though Boris.

    It will still reinforce the message that: "You can't trust Boris"
  • algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:


    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.

    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    I think there’s only one viable day, assuming the convention of holding an election on a Thursday is upheld: Thursday 12 December. 19 December is too close to Christmas and earlier relies on the two main parties agreeing in advance on a date. Boris Johnson now has no motivation for seeking an early election directly immediately and if Jeremy Corbyn goes for it he will bring a vote of no confidence, which requires another 14 days.
    How would you price the year?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    ydoethur said:

    How well is Cummings' wargaming working out right now, I wonder?

    He's through to the second round of his local Dungeons and Dragons contest.

    The politics is a bit shit.
    :lol:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.
    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    Spot on.

    I’d be tempted to rule out Thu 19 Dec too, as many people will be away or travelling for Christmas. So that only leaves three possible dates - 28 Nov, 5 Dec or 12 Dec. An election six days before Christmas would be possible in theory - but would be an utter farce.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    There won't be an election until April or May next year at the earliest.

    What the hell the country does between now and then is anyone's guess.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:


    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.

    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    I think there’s only one viable day, assuming the convention of holding an election on a Thursday is upheld: Thursday 12 December. 19 December is too close to Christmas and earlier relies on the two main parties agreeing in advance on a date. Boris Johnson now has no motivation for seeking an early election directly immediately and if Jeremy Corbyn goes for it he will bring a vote of no confidence, which requires another 14 days.
    Sorry Alastair, I see you have made a similar point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    While talking of my predictions....
    A a legal and post legislative referendum on a NI backstop will take some time. It would be Spring at the earliest. So much for Boris' Do or Die 31/10 deadline.
    I heard him speak tonight and he was absolutely definitive on leaving on 31/10, deal or no deal.

    It was curious that he left himself no wiggle room.
    Where was he speaking?
    He's only the PM. When Charles calls, one jumps.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Quick question. Does today's shenanigans mean that a no-deal departure by October 31st is not possible? Or is there some strange BDSM strategem that still makes it possible?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    TGOHF said:
    They're not called Government Sachs for nothing.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "John Bercow resignation statement: Speaker warns 'We degrade this Parliament at our peril'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/09/john-bercow-resignation-statement-speaker-warns-degrade-parliament/

    Sorry sweet cheeks in the eyes of the public Parliament is already degraded to such a point it can't get any lower.

    If someone burned the whole place down right now I'd shed no tears for it.

    So much for the Brexit take back control prospectus.

    You’re a self declared revolutionary anarchist.
    Well not quite as I wouldn't light the match personally... But if I heard someone else had done it I'd just shrug and carry on with my buisness.
    "If I don't get my way and fast, everything can burn for all I care," said no democrat ever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    That's when the VONC will hit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    Probably not, but then he could be vonced I guess.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    There won't be an election until April or May next year at the earliest.

    What the hell the country does between now and then is anyone's guess.
    Fanny about having waste of space debates like tonight’s dross.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    These latest Get Ready for Brexit posters are finally getting to the specifics I see:

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1171010631127969792?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Raab:

    "Respecting the referendum must also mean that this house allows us to leave without a deal if Brussels leave no other credible choice. Taking that option off the table severely weakened our negotiating position."

    So now we see the seeds of the Johnson climbdown defence... "I had no other choice because the HoC cut my negotiating legs off."

    It will still be a climbdown though Boris.

    It will still reinforce the message that: "You can't trust Boris"

    He was trapped from the start. He had to be unequivocal in order to win back BXP, but there was always a decent chance the Commons could stop him, which he clearly believes will cost him even if some few on here think it won't. If he didn't think it would cost him dear he would not have floated so many barmy ideas to try to prevent it - he'd already made clear he did not want this end.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    Which is surprising really as I thought it was all supposed to be as easy as 1-2-3.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    There won't be an election until April or May next year at the earliest.

    What the hell the country does between now and then is anyone's guess.
    Fanny about having waste of space debates like tonight’s dross.

    You mean the 2 debates accusing the Government of hiding information which all Government lawyers avoided speaking in to ensure they didn't incriminate themselves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoZo finds another bus

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1171138084576120832

    to throw the DUP under...

    I've joked about it being a good idea, but I really don't see the political upside for Boris. Theoretically if he could get it through then he can hope in an election that the Faragist cry of betrayal will not prevent leavers showering him with praise and a majority, and with a majority the DUP can go back to moaning to themselves about how righteous they and they alone are, but discarding them like this, pissing off the ERG spartans in the process (since anything but no deal does that) and those who were genuinely against the NI only backstop, and with no Labour incentive to back a deal, and it is just ruining his good polling for no gain.

    It's only potential is the long mooted theory which applied to May's deal, which is that if Labour let it through then they would have a good chance of winning an election as angry leavers deserted the Tories. But it didn't work for May and won't work here surely?
    The Withdrawal Agreement with the NI only backstop has no chance of getting through the Commons unless Boris wins the next general election with an overall majority anyway as even if it wins over a few more ERG MPs the DUP will vote against it as will all the other opposition parties that voted against the Withdrawal Agreement 3 times, so it is just theoretical at the moment
    It's all the wrong way around. He may not win a GE if we don't leave, and we cannot leave unless he wins a GE.
  • ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    We really ought to limit your Access to PB :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    The first step would be wanting to get out. But since as you point the situation has remained broadly unchanged since last November, the chances of them suddenly wanting to get out of this whole is slim.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    No you can make it so it comes in automatic. No further debate or Commons time . The result of the ref is implemented the day after the vote . This might get the public onside if they think that’s the end .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    We really ought to limit your Access to PB :lol:
    Impossible. I publisher regular pearl of wisdom. How would PB survive without it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Johnson really agree to an election if he's just had to produce a humiliating climb down with the EU ?!

    There won't be an election until April or May next year at the earliest.

    What the hell the country does between now and then is anyone's guess.
    Fanny about having waste of space debates like tonight’s dross.

    You mean the 2 debates accusing the Government of hiding information which all Government lawyers avoided speaking in to ensure they didn't incriminate themselves.
    Yup - waste of time.

    What next - taping them in the pub, their pillow talk, transcripts of their dream diaries ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    Read my post... a binding confirmatory referendum.

    Pass the legislation which says we do a), b) or c) immediately the referendum result is announced, dependent on the result - no further recourse to parliament necessary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    Which is surprising really as I thought it was all supposed to be as easy as 1-2-3.
    He sorted by Column F, Up?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    Yep.

    Referendums ignored. Elections denied. Parliament won't agree to anything other than the fact they hate Boris Johnson. A government that can't govern. An Opposition that spent two years calling for an electon and then at the first sign of one went and hid behind the sofa...

    On and on it goes...
  • algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.
    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    Spot on.

    I’d be tempted to rule out Thu 19 Dec too, as many people will be away or travelling for Christmas. So that only leaves three possible dates - 28 Nov, 5 Dec or 12 Dec. An election six days before Christmas would be possible in theory - but would be an utter farce.
    Yes, I agree with you.

    I was trying to outline the maximum window to make a point on just how narrow that still is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    That's why he specified 'binding'. They can be made so, they just aren't automatically. But the howls of outrage if a second one were made binding would be off the charts, from whichever side was worried they'd lose.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited September 2019

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:


    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.

    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    I think there’s only one viable day, assuming the convention of holding an election on a Thursday is upheld: Thursday 12 December. 19 December is too close to Christmas and earlier relies on the two main parties agreeing in advance on a date. Boris Johnson now has no motivation for seeking an early election directly immediately and if Jeremy Corbyn goes for it he will bring a vote of no confidence, which requires another 14 days.
    How would you price the year?
    I think it happens in 2019 if either Boris Johnson immediately calls for another election directly after the Queen’s speech debate or Jeremy Corbyn immediately calls a vote of no confidence in him then. Assuming that Brexit has been extended then, I can’t see that being an election that Boris Johnson would relish and I’d have thought Jeremy Corbyn would now wait until 1 November, logically.

    Maybe 3/1?
  • Sylvia Hermon is *not* happy with the Government and the entire chamber picked up on it. Interesting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    We really ought to limit your Access to PB :lol:
    Point of order: Access is not a spreadsheet - you can't do a supercalc with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoZo finds another bus

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1171138084576120832

    to throw the DUP under...

    I've joked about it being a good idea, but I really don't see the political upside for Boris. Theoretically if he could get it through then he can hope in an election that the Faragist cry of betrayal will not prevent leavers showering him with praise and a majority, and with a majority the DUP can go back to moaning to themselves about how righteous they and they alone are, but discarding them like this, pissing off the ERG spartans in the process (since anything but no deal does that) and those who were genuinely against the NI only backstop, and with no Labour incentive to back a deal, and it is just ruining his good polling for no gain.

    It's only potential is the long mooted theory which applied to May's deal, which is that if Labour let it through then they would have a good chance of winning an election as angry leavers deserted the Tories. But it didn't work for May and won't work here surely?
    The Withdrawal Agreement with the NI only backstop has no chance of getting through the Commons unless Boris wins the next general election with an overall majority anyway as even if it wins over a few more ERG MPs the DUP will vote against it as will all the other opposition parties that voted against the Withdrawal Agreement 3 times, so it is just theoretical at the moment
    It's all the wrong way around. He may not win a GE if we don't leave, and we cannot leave unless he wins a GE.
    He can win as long as he commits to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority, even if he has to go into opposition and let someone else extend to do so
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    Read my post... a binding confirmatory referendum.

    Pass the legislation which says we do a), b) or c) immediately the referendum result is announced, dependent on the result - no further recourse to parliament necessary.
    I wouldn’t trust these MPs to ignore the binding or change the law after the event if we voted leave again.

    They will pull any trick to ignore the voters.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Sylvia Hermon is *not* happy with the Government and the entire chamber picked up on it. Interesting.

    Is that about the backstop or what?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    When the Tories get into proper power again they should pass an Act to outlaw the Labour party and ask Corbyn if he's going to break the law on it.
  • algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:


    I completely disagree. Eventually even the dimmest politicians will appreciate that they need to build stable majorities before forming governments. If that means they have to compromise more, well that’s not the worst thing in the world.

    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    I think there’s only one viable day, assuming the convention of holding an election on a Thursday is upheld: Thursday 12 December. 19 December is too close to Christmas and earlier relies on the two main parties agreeing in advance on a date. Boris Johnson now has no motivation for seeking an early election directly immediately and if Jeremy Corbyn goes for it he will bring a vote of no confidence, which requires another 14 days.
    How would you price the year?
    I think it happens in 2019 if either Boris Johnson immediately calls for another election directly after the Queen’s speech debate or Jeremy Corbyn immediately calls a vote of no confidence in him then. Assuming that Brexit has been extended then, I can’t see that being an election that Boris Johnson would relish and I’d have thought Jeremy Corbyn would now wait until 1 November, logically.

    Maybe 3/1?
    Thanks. Feels about right.
  • Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Looks like the government is considering the request and that it will be lost in the courts until well passed the 31st October
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Spot on.

    I’d be tempted to rule out Thu 19 Dec too, as many people will be away or travelling for Christmas. So that only leaves three possible dates - 28 Nov, 5 Dec or 12 Dec. An election six days before Christmas would be possible in theory - but would be an utter farce.

    Yes, I agree with you.

    I was trying to outline the maximum window to make a point on just how narrow that still is.
    Given the turkeys on offer, a Christmas election seems a reasonable one. I would look forward to seeing all these useless clowns get stuffed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Noo said:

    Sylvia Hermon is *not* happy with the Government and the entire chamber picked up on it. Interesting.

    Is that about the backstop or what?
    I'd guess just their general behaviour over an extended period, particularly in the last few weeks. She's no Corbyn fan but I beleive she has never been right in the Tory camp in any case.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Looks like the government is considering the request and that it will be lost in the courts until well passed the 31st October
    Yes, quite possibly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    I completely agree but that has been the situation since at least last November and so far the MPs haven’t. So many are now dug in so deep I don’t know how they get out.
    If people like me are thinking please vote for a deal then there’s hope . You can’t get many people more pro EU . MPs have to think of the future . A deal means there’s a chance the UK can remain on good terms with the EU , it provides a transition period and is the only chance to stop the polarization getting even worse .

    If a deal has a confirmatory vote then of course I’d be happy . But I can’t see that happening . I do think the EU wants to move on and doesn’t want the UK going through years more of psychodrama .
    This has to end in a binding confirmatory referendum.

    It's the only way.
    Waste of time - we’ve seen MPs ignore referendums.

    Read my post... a binding confirmatory referendum.

    Pass the legislation which says we do a), b) or c) immediately the referendum result is announced, dependent on the result - no further recourse to parliament necessary.
    I wouldn’t trust these MPs to ignore the binding or change the law after the event if we voted leave again.

    They will pull any trick to ignore the voters.
    Swinson is already on record as saying if Leave won another refernedum she wouldn't accept it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Noo said:

    Sylvia Hermon is *not* happy with the Government and the entire chamber picked up on it. Interesting.

    Is that about the backstop or what?
    No shes angry the NI issues now will not be debated due to prorogation
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pulpstar said:

    When the Tories get into proper power again they should pass an Act to outlaw the Labour party and ask Corbyn if he's going to break the law on it.

    Given how much he hates the PLP he'd probably welcome it with great enthusiasm as a once Ina century opportunity to purge all his opponents.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1).
    If .
    Ild.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.

    There is an election this year....as soon as the delay is signed off- There is not a chance in hell that BJ wants this Parliament to live a day longer than necessary....

    1.25 is free money

    I’m afraid it isn’t.

    If BJ alone could be the arbiter of when an election were being held we’d already be having one. It takes two to tango and the inertia against calling one is huge; it depends on the political convenience of a whole host of factors, including both main parties believing it could work for them.
    A good reply. It is one of the quirks of pbCOM that over a timeline you can see some of your foes becoming really quite thoughtful and sensible as their allegiances to their main political parties are challenged,,,,,
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like Cummings got told he fucked up yesterday at their meeting
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Pulpstar said:

    When the Tories get into proper power again they should pass an Act to outlaw the Labour party and ask Corbyn if he's going to break the law on it.


    You mean something like this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, the torrent of 'they knew what they were gonna get, good riddance to them' will really make that easy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like Cummings got told he fucked up yesterday at their meeting
    What do you mean, 'yesterday?' He's been fucking things up his whole worthless life long.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Scott_P said:
    Problem is quite a few are already not seeking re-election , a few might go back and do an Amber Rudd , suddenly dropping their aversion to no deal but there’s no way he’ll get enough to be able to force through a no deal .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Scott_P said:
    Well, maybe if he ruled out No Deal, that might work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Pulpstar said:

    When the Tories get into proper power again they should pass an Act to outlaw the Labour party and ask Corbyn if he's going to break the law on it.


    You mean something like this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933
    Parliament made it clear that the law should.... always... be obeyed :open_mouth:
  • NEW THREAD

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like Cummings got told he fucked up yesterday at their meeting
    What do you mean, 'yesterday?' He's been fucking things up his whole worthless life long.
    I mean Boris told him that yesterday at that private meeting
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    kyf_100 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Raab tells the house that Boris will got to the EU on 17th and negotiate to leave on the 31/10 deal or no deal.


    Raab is an idiot. If Boris can’t get a deal, he must request an extension or break the law of the land. Keep up.
    What if the deal he gets is a £3 meal deal?

    I mean, in all seriousness, what exactly constitutes a "deal" according to the letter of the law?
    There’s an LBC interview with Lisa Nandy on the subject of voting on the “deal” which presented on YouTube and is quite funny. Haven’t the link sorry.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Basically all these defeats meaning nothing if Boris comes back to the commons next month with a deal that gets voted through. He's then getting a landslide in an election very shortly afterwards. I fear the remainers have blundered by not taking the election.

    This House Of Common will never vote for any deal.
    Indeed. There is no form of a deal that can get through this House.
    As an ardent Remainer at this point I’d accept a deal that led to an orderly withdrawal . A no deal would trash relations with the EU for years and at least with a deal the country has a chance of moving on . A no deal would lead to years of bitter acrimony, even worse than now.

    If a deal comes forward then I think MPs will be under tremendous pressure to pass it.

    I think Brexit is a disaster but a deal now is the only way to save the country .
    Agreed. My hunch is, if the Tory Cabinet can settle on a deal, it would pass the Commons. I'm not sure Corbyn would whip against it, but even if he did, dozens of Labour MPs would rebel, out of fear of No Deal.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1) the government draws its power from the legislature. If it has lost the legislature, that body should be given every opportunity to have its say.

    2) it’s a bit more than a fishing expedition. The whole manoeuvre stinks to high heaven.

    3) the government really cannot complain about rush on this occasion.
    If it has lost the legislature it should be replaced as a government. The refusal to appoint another government or hold an election is a ridiculous situation caused by the terribly written FTPA.
    world.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.
    Spot on.

    I’d be tempted to rule out Thu 19 Dec too, as many people will be away or travelling for Christmas. So that only leaves three possible dates - 28 Nov, 5 Dec or 12 Dec. An election six days before Christmas would be possible in theory - but would be an utter farce.
    Yes, I agree with you.

    I was trying to outline the maximum window to make a point on just how narrow that still is.
    Yeah, fair enough.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Gabs2 said:



    A significant number of members didn't vote - not sure whether they were abstentions or something else.

    I am really not a fan of the SO24 nonsense. Emergency debates are all well and good - and have their place. But substantive motions that have real impact need time to be discussed - not rushed through.

    It is Bercow who has allowed this change. And it really isn't for the better.

    This is a fishing expedition - and not a healthy one.

    1).
    If .
    Ild.
    A slight hint of special pleading here.

    It’s not special pleading at all.
    I see your point - and it would be nice if it happened. But I can't see the stable majority in a timely way, and the FTPA allows for elections in exactly those circumstances. Like now.

    I should note that Labour seem as oblivious to this consideration as the Conservatives.

    The election will come when it is in the interests of a majority in Parliament. That may be some time.
    The maximum window I can see for an election this year, now, is from Tuesday 26th November to Thursday 19th December. And that’s going some when it’s going to be dark before 4pm, each day, and most people will have better things to think about.

    And yet, you can still lay an election this year right now at 1.25 on Betfair, which implies an 80% chance when I’m not sure it’s even a 5/2 shot now.

    There is an election this year....as soon as the delay is signed off- There is not a chance in hell that BJ wants this Parliament to live a day longer than necessary....

    1.25 is free money

    I’m afraid it isn’t.

    If BJ alone could be the arbiter of when an election were being held we’d already be having one. It takes two to tango and the inertia against calling one is huge; it depends on the political convenience of a whole host of factors, including both main parties believing it could work for them.
    A good reply. It is one of the quirks of pbCOM that over a timeline you can see some of your foes becoming really quite thoughtful and sensible as their allegiances to their main political parties are challenged,,,,,

    Things have been somewhat fluid on here in recent times.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Considering his ancestor led the Tory Party to the worst defeat and lowest voteshare in its history in 1832 not sure that is too bad news

    Bit harsh to hold that against him!
    Well he is only in the Lords mainly because of who his ancestor was anyway, Wellington was a brilliant general but a crap politician.

    The Tories got an even worse voteshare than 1997 under his leadership in 1832
    Did one of your ancestors advise him to bugger off and join the Whigs?
    The 1832 Wellington was a proper Tory not a fake Tory liberal Whig like Peel but other proper Tory leaders in the 19th century like Pitt, Disraeli and Salisbury were far more successful Tory leaders than he was
    So he was an ERGer?
    He had nothing but contempt for the Tory backwoodsmen

    But facts never got in the way of @HYUFD
  • Dont think you are seeing the Bigger Picture here Boris and Cummins have just played them all .He will destroy the Labour party for a generation .He will resign and so will his government stating that the opposition are undemocratic and preventing the will of the people. Under the Fixed Parliament act Corbyn has to try to form a Government Labour will vote for him if they dont then the Conservatives will support him .Now Brexit and Brexit extention is Corbyns problem ,After Corbyn gets an extention Boris puts down a motion of no Confidence .The Jocks ,the UDA, Liberals, Conservatives will all vote to get Corbyn out .Now Boris fights a general election saying he will leave if the EU do not give him a deal in a fortnight or whatever time frame suits him .If he gets a majority he will have 5 years to sort it out .Its so clever the opposition have put themselves in the shit .The Government can resign the opposition cant .Game set and Match to Boris .
  • ydoethur said:

    Here's a thought...

    Will the communications Cummings has to release include a copy of his Brexit wargaming spreadsheet?

    Whatever he is doing, it is clear he hasn't Excelled.
    Which is surprising really as I thought it was all supposed to be as easy as 1-2-3.
    We need to get the Natural Law Party in for the Lotus position.
This discussion has been closed.