Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his ea

123578

Comments

  • Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    Homelessness seems to up in Maidenhead as well. Not sure it is locals though.

    A homeless guy turned up on the streets in my small Hampshire market town about 6 weeks ago, and set up camp.

    He’s still there and I’m not sure what if anything is being done about it.
  • nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
  • nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited September 2019

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    It's as if we temporary forgot 500 years of foreign policy overnight. Like we simply gave up. So sad.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    Perhaps the French genuinely don't know what to do. Or how to react. Which is understandable.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Re the thread header: ' Private polling ' showing something different to public polling being leaked is one of the oldest tropes in the book. It's bollocks. There is no reason why publication status should alter what the data says and if it is then smell a rat.

    And presumably Labour's private polling is telling them "Don't. Fucking. Think. About. An. Election....."
    I've had exposure to private party polling in the past. As the questions are rarely intellectually rigourous they are mostly a collection of geriatric shoemakers
  • Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, where life is now a lot better.

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer is grinding, relentless, nothingness, so no wonder so many end up having huge drug problems and the crime that goes with that, as well as chronic levels of obesity. What else is there to do except get high and eat? There are a few cities I enjoy going to - and the open country is extraordinary - but to live? Not a chance - except, perhaps, the far north-east. With the exception of Japan, I don't know about Asia either - the pollution in so many places is horrible and the work/life balance is horrific, Korea perhaps most of all. Hong Kong used to be fantastic, but not so much these days. Of the places I have visited, western Europe, Canada and maybe New Zealand seem to have got it most right. But we think we haven't.
    It depends where you go in NZ.

    Timaru, Invercargill, Granity, or Palmerston North are as bad as any small town in the US.

    Fair - the West Coast towns of the South Island are pretty bleak places. I passed through Greymouth and Westport and could not wait to get out!

    I agree with that
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    What we've done is added that to the traditional role of plaything of the U.S. The idea sold to the public was for a miraculously recharged autonomy, like the HMS Victory setting sail in the 21st Century Malaccan Strait, but life doesn't work like that.
  • Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
  • nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    France correctly vetoed our first application for entry, we should have stayed in EFTA
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    A plaything of France couldn't have imposed the Single Market and eastward expansion on it, or got an enormous rebate out of it.

    The UK has no prospect whatsoever of any similar level of leverage on Trump's America, however, a relationship without which Brexit is untenable.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    What we've done is added that to the traditional role of plaything of the U.S. The idea was for a miraculously recharged autonomy, like the HMS Victory setting sail in the 21st Century Malaccan Strait, but life doesn't work like that.
    To be fair, the Brexiteers never expected it to be an overnight transformation. Remember Rees Mogg talking of a "fifty year" perspective.

    However, I don't think the Brexiteers expected it to be this shit, so quick, either. How many of them even thought about the Irish border problem? Not many. And they certainly didn't mention it,

    But what happens to us, psychologically, if we revoke (perhaps after a referendum)? No one seems to be considering this. Returning to the EU after all this will be an admission that we can NEVER Brexit, not without suicidal pain, and therefore we are in the EU project for ever. And we are no longer the sovereign state we imagined ourselves to be.

    Yes this lesson will then apply to every EU country, but it will be the UK that has been brutally taught this lesson. We are not free to leave, not any more.

    It will be very sobering. Perhaps it will be salutary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    Not quite as our global power relied on an Empire, the USA's does not.

    Plus a rising democratic, free market India is growing to join the USA and take on China
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, where life is now a lot better.

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer t.
    It depends where you go in NZ.

    Timaru, Invercargill, Granity, or Palmerston North are as bad as any small town in the US.

    Fair - the West Coast towns of the South Island are pretty bleak places. I passed through Greymouth and Westport and could not wait to get out!

    I agree with that
    West Coasters are a tough bunch. Beautiful scenery, horrific weather and the only place where insect repellent is sold by the litre.

    Parts of outback Australia are pretty grim too. I have cousins in Dubbo NSW...
  • nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    A plaything of France couldn't have imposed the Single Market and eastward expansion on it, or got an enormous rebate out of it.
    We imposed nothing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    European power and politics is currently conducted and expressed through the EU whether we like it or not. Brexit has underlined that fact and has done absolutely nothing to change it. Our influence had grown as the EU spread east (at our request), but we've now chosen to sit all that out - for better or worse. Feels a bit negative, but hey I am sure those leavers know what they're doing. :-)
  • Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
  • Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.

    We did an event in Seattle a couple of years back and had homeless people wandering into it off the streets. I was not there, but colleagues say it is a pitiful place. I can't imagine anyhting is as bad as San Francisco, though. As I said before, it's the worst, the bleakest and most abject homlessness I have seen outside of India. It is genuinely jaw-dropping.

    I went to Seattle with my wife last year. She wanted to go because of Frasier, Sleepless in Seattle... that sort of thing.

    We’d come from Calgary and Vancouver where there aren’t *no* people on the streets, but at a low level comparable to any UK major town or city. And it was otherwise fine, clean and neat.

    Seattle was like the Walking Dead. And the whole place looked tired, decaying and moribund. Hundreds (and i mean hundreds) of people chattering away to themselves, shaking with health issues, or pissed, wandering about with shopping trolleys of their possessions.

    Absolute shithole. And for the first time in my life it made me feel vaguely Left-Wing.

    I hated it for that alone!
    Maybe left wing people have just noticed the world going to shit a bit earlier and want to try to fix it before we all find ourselves living in a neoliberal zombie apocalypse.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, where life is now a lot better.

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer is grinding, relentless, nothingness, so no wonder so many end up having huge drug problems and the crime that goes with that, as well as chronic levels of obesity. What else is there to do except get high and eat? There are a few cities I enjoy going to - and the open country is extraordinary - but to live? Not a chance - except, perhaps, the far north-east. With the exception of Japan, I don't know about Asia either - the pollution in so many places is horrible and the work/life balance is horrific, Korea perhaps most of all. Hong Kong used to be fantastic, but not so much these days. Of the places I have visited, western Europe, Canada and maybe New Zealand seem to have got it most right. But we think we haven't.
    It depends where you go in NZ.

    Timaru, Invercargill, Granity, or Palmerston North are as bad as any small town in the US.

    Fair - the West Coast towns of the South Island are pretty bleak places. I passed through Greymouth and Westport and could not wait to get out!

    Sandflies speak very highly of Greymouth, and congregate there in their billions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    Swinson 8% more popular than Corbyn with Labour 2017 voters - no details though!

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/09/swinson-popular-corbyn-labour-2017-voters/

    2017 Tory voters though give Boris huge +43% rating
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    What we've done is added that to the traditional role of plaything of the U.S. The idea was for a miraculously recharged autonomy, like the HMS Victory setting sail in the 21st Century Malaccan Strait, but life doesn't work like that.
    To be fair, the Brexiteers never expected it to be an overnight transformation. Remember Rees Mogg talking of a "fifty year" perspective.

    However, I don't think the Brexiteers expected it to be this shit, so quick, either. How many of them even thought about the Irish border problem? Not many. And they certainly didn't mention it,

    But what happens to us, psychologically, if we revoke (perhaps after a referendum)? No one seems to be considering this. Returning to the EU after all this will be an admission that we can NEVER Brexit, not without suicidal pain, and therefore we are in the EU project for ever. And we are no longer the sovereign state we imagined ourselves to be.

    Yes this lesson will then apply to every EU country, but it will be the UK that has been brutally taught this lesson. We are not free to leave, not any more.

    It will be very sobering. Perhaps it will be salutary.
    Indeed, but it's the condition of nations in globalisation. Brexit is internally very incoherent and unstable, because it was carried through on a wave of revulsion against globalisation, but has been led by a group in fact embracing and seeking an even more extreme form of globalisation.

    It's weak.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    The No Brexit Bill has Royal Assent.

    Another HY certain prediction that was utterly wrong.

    LOL.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    egg said:

    My moneys on Liz Kendall. What’s her odds?
    4%?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    edited September 2019
    removed to reconsider
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    A plaything of France couldn't have imposed the Single Market and eastward expansion on it, or got an enormous rebate out of it.
    We imposed nothing.
    Highly debatable. Without the British input I very much doubt there would been a single market as we understand it, or at least not so quickly in the same form, and eastward expansion would also have been much slower, taking a different form. Britain has had influence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has

    What

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer is grinding, relentless, nothingness, so no wonder so many end up having huge drug problems and the crime that goes with that, as well as chronic levels of obesity. What else is there to do except get high and eat? There are a few cities I enjoy going to - and the open country is extraordinary - but to live? Not a chance - except, perhaps, the far north-east. With the exception of Japan, I don't know about Asia either - the pollution in so many places is horrible and the work/life balance is horrific, Korea perhaps most of all. Hong Kong used to be fantastic, but not so much these days. Of the places I have visited, western Europe, Canada and maybe New Zealand seem to have got it most right. But we think we haven't.
    You used to be much more positive about America, it's a noticeable change.

    Everything you say is right, except the Asian thing. Life in east Asia for many people has got so much better. Korea can be amazing (and it has brilliant food). Taiwan is very very prosperous (yes there are threats, but still). Even poorer places like Malaysia are possibly nicer to live in than rust belt America.

    This is sad for America, it is also worrying for Britain, as we seem to be following their example, from the obesity to the opioid problem. At least we haven't got the guns.

    Deleted
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    What we've done is added that to the traditional role of plaything of the U.S. The idea was for a miraculously recharged autonomy, like the HMS Victory setting sail in the 21st Century Malaccan Strait, but life doesn't work like that.
    To be fair, the Brexiteers never expected it to be an overnight transformation. Remember Rees Mogg talking of a "fifty year" perspective.

    However, I don't think the Brexiteers expected it to be this shit, so quick, either. How many of them even thought about the Irish border problem? Not many. And they certainly didn't mention it,

    But what happens to us, psychologically, if we revoke (perhaps after a referendum)? No one seems to be considering this. Returning to the EU after all this will be an admission that we can NEVER Brexit, not without suicidal pain, and therefore we are in the EU project for ever. And we are no longer the sovereign state we imagined ourselves to be.

    Yes this lesson will then apply to every EU country, but it will be the UK that has been brutally taught this lesson. We are not free to leave, not any more.

    It will be very sobering. Perhaps it will be salutary.
    Going back to the EU means wearing the blue gimp suit with gold stars. Being the EU's bitch. For ever.

    It is an horrific prospect.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    No, it doesn't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    HYUFD said:

    Swinson 8% more popular than Corbyn with Labour 2017 voters - no details though!

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/09/swinson-popular-corbyn-labour-2017-voters/

    2017 Tory voters though give Boris huge +43% rating
    How much lower by the end of the month though?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    Surely there is no risk that the Commons would 'decide not to pass' such a motion? The length is an irrelevance, so long as it is long enough to allow a path toward remain.
  • Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
  • Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    After a long period of hegemony, American society will need to adapt to being one Western country among many, and that won't be easy because being the city on the hill is such an important part of their self-image. I think this is one reason that Trump supporters love to paint a dystopian image of contemporary Europe, regardless of the true reality.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    Oooh, good catch. If an extension is offered, and Parliament agrees to it, then there is no compulsion on the PM to also agree to it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has

    What

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer is grinding, relentless, nothingness, so no wonder so many end up having huge drug problems and the crime that goes with that, as well as chronic levels of obesity. What else is there to do except get high and eat? There are a few cities I enjoy going to - and the open country is extraordinary - but to live? Not a chance - except, perhaps, the far north-east. With the exception of Japan, I don't know about Asia either - the pollution in so many places is horrible and the work/life balance is horrific, Korea perhaps most of all. Hong Kong used to be fantastic, but not so much these days. Of the places I have visited, western Europe, Canada and maybe New Zealand seem to have got it most right. But we think we haven't.
    You used to be much more positive about America, it's a noticeable change.

    Everything you say is right, except the Asian thing. Life in east Asia for many people has got so much better. Korea can be amazing (and it has brilliant food). Taiwan is very very prosperous (yes there are threats, but still). Even poorer places like Malaysia are possibly nicer to live in than rust belt America.

    This is sad for America, it is also worrying for Britain, as we seem to be following their example, from the obesity to the opioid problem. At least we haven't got the guns.

    Deleted
    Interesting, saddening, discussion. Vagrancy does appear to be getting worse. And it’s deeply worrying. The US is awful. Downtown Atlanta was harrowing when I visited last year. A severe example no doubt but not massively atypical I dare say.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Byronic said:

    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    No, it doesn't.
    Yeah, I had second thoughts about that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    Oooh, good catch. If an extension is offered, and Parliament agrees to it, then there is no compulsion on the PM to also agree to it.
    Total misreading.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife did some work with the homeless in Leamington. One of the problems is that a lot of towns are very strict in enforcing vagrancy laws, so that homeless people are moved on to the next town and then the next one - until they all end up in London or other big cities. Leamington is less strict than other places, so has quite a few who have been moved on from places like Oxford. This was a big problem in the 1990s, too, if I remember right. Then government action significantly reduced it. Sadly, it is not currently a priority and has not been for a while.

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    Not quite as our global power relied on an Empire, the USA's does not.

    Plus a rising democratic, free market India is growing to join the USA and take on China

    Of course the UK and USA are different countries but the 1920s represented the decade we were no longer clear sole world leaders, although you could make a case going back to the 1880s.

    I agree with your last sentence.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.
  • It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.

    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
    I think building our relationship with Russia is more critical, because until that happens, they will always be a resentful spoiler in the European and transatlantic system. Unfortunately this requires a major change of outlook and personnel in the Russian regime first.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My wife

    What

    There are so many miserable, forgotten places in the US - all they offer is grinding, relentless, nothingness, so no wonder so many end up having huge drug problems and the crime that goes with that, as well as chronic levels of obesity. What else is there to do except get high and eat? There are a few cities I enjoy going to - and the open country is extraordinary - but to live? Not a chance - except, perhaps, the far north-east. With the exception of Japan, I don't know about Asia either - the pollution in so many places is horrible and the work/life balance is horrific, Korea perhaps most of all. Hong Kong used to be fantastic, but not so much these days. Of the places I have visited, western Europe, Canada and maybe New Zealand seem to have got it most right. But we think we haven't.
    You used to be much more positive about America, it's a noticeable change.

    Everything you say is right, except the Asian thing. Life in east Asia for many people has got so much better. Korea can be amazing (and it has brilliant food). Taiwan is very very prosperous (yes there are threats, but still). Even poorer places like Malaysia are possibly nicer to live in than rust belt America.

    This is sad for America, it is also worrying for Britain, as we seem to be following their example, from the obesity to the opioid problem. At least we haven't got the guns.

    Deleted
    Interesting, saddening, discussion. Vagrancy does appear to be getting worse. And it’s deeply worrying. The US is awful. Downtown Atlanta was harrowing when I visited last year. A severe example no doubt but not massively atypical I dare say.
    Mental health and attitudes to addictions are things we simply must get better at.

    As always a job, decent education and family and friends are key.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
  • The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    What purpose does any extension serve if the EU won't reopen the WA?

    An extension which reopens things at all levels would be fine - but that doesn't seem to be on the table.

    If they would agree to reopen everything, then the game changes
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. Thes.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    Not quite as our global power relied on an Empire, the USA's does not.

    Plus a rising democratic, free market India is growing to join the USA and take on China

    Of course the UK and USA are different countries but the 1920s represented the decade we were no longer clear sole world leaders, although you could make a case going back to the 1880s.

    I agree with your last sentence.
    I remember reading an analysis of 9/11 just after it happened (I wish I could recall WHERE). The writer predicted that this would be an epochal and pivotal moment for the USA, a date that - in the future - would be seen as the inflection point where America went into long-term relative decline, and lost its hegemony.

    At the time I thought it was hyperbolic, now it seems very prescient.

  • It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.

    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
    Yes. Britain could play a unique role as a bridge between Europe and the Commonwealth. It was a mistake to ever view us as having to choose between the two.

    Instead it looks like we're going to be standing out on the sidelines expending all our energy on tearing lumps out of each other.
  • Fair - the West Coast towns of the South Island are pretty bleak places. I passed through Greymouth and Westport and could not wait to get out!

    Greymouth does however have (with all due respect to @TheScreamingEagles' love for pineapple) the pizza topping of the gods.

    Whitebait pizza. Absolutely divine.

    I think that's about the one saving grace of the place.
  • It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.

    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
    I think building our relationship with Russia is more critical, because until that happens, they will always be a resentful spoiler in the European and transatlantic system. Unfortunately this requires a major change of outlook and personnel in the Russian regime first.
    I’d like Russia to be democratic too but they’re an also-ran and has-been in this.

    India and China are the two emerging major power blocks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
  • Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. Thes.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    My

    What REALLY strikes me about America, these days, is the poor quality of life in many cities compared to Asia and Europe.

    Like, you go to some midWest town with a gun problem, a drug problem, a race problem, a homeless problem, and a winter climate where it hits -30F. And you learn about the local Irish or Norwegian or Korean or German communities, and you think: sure, I can see why these people came here in the 19th century, but when they wake up now and look at the ice and the blood and the syringes, they must wish they were back in Dublin or Oslo or Seoul or Munich. where life is now a lot better.
    It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.
    Not quite as our global power relied on an Empire, the USA's does not.

    Plus a rising democratic, free market India is growing to join the USA and take on China

    Of course the UK and USA are different countries but the 1920s represented the decade we were no longer clear sole world leaders, although you could make a case going back to the 1880s.

    I agree with your last sentence.
    I remember reading an analysis of 9/11 just after it happened (I wish I could recall WHERE). The writer predicted that this would be an epochal and pivotal moment for the USA, a date that - in the future - would be seen as the inflection point where America went into long-term relative decline, and lost its hegemony.

    At the time I thought it was hyperbolic, now it seems very prescient.
    It’s always easier to tell with hindsight.

    A large part of me wants to fast forward five years, just so I can sit down with a glass of wine and safely read about what’s going on right-now in one of Tim Shipman’s books.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    How? You can't have anything beyond a 2 option (Yes / No) question without it being possible to game the final result,,
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    A 2nd referendum is a horrible idea, but it may be the least worst option from here. I am slowly being reconciled to it. As the one and only "democratic" means of solving this appalling puzzle.

    It needs to be binary though. The government of the day must choose between deal or no deal, then that must face off against Remain.
  • Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Well, he kind of has to, otherwise Bercow remains an MP.
    Only until the election.
    Given how resistant the current bunch of MPs seem to be to an election, that could be a long time coming.
    The next parliament will probably be as riven as this one. Only with Corbyn in charge of a SNP-PC-LD-LAB-Green Gov't.

    It'll make the Johnson premiership look like halycon days.
    That is why Johnson is better off losing the election. But, not too badly.

    He needs most seats, but providing he ensures Corby has to depend on SNP & PC & LD & Greens, Johnson should be fine.
    Too clever by half.

    Coalitions often last a lot longer than people predict.
    Yepp.

    There is no such thing as “better off losing the election”.

    Eg. Brown did not lose that election. It was a draw. He was very badly advised and allowed the Dave+Nick Rose Garden wankathon.

    Brown should have had some balls. Yes, of course being pleasant to the SNP would have been difficult, but we’d have escaped this Brexit shite.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The French two year is no more EU policy than we were told the French no extension is. Its froth.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    Oooh, good catch. If an extension is offered, and Parliament agrees to it, then there is no compulsion on the PM to also agree to it.
    Total misreading.
    Fair enough. Please explain. Preferably with reference to the bit where it says that the PM must also agree to the extension if it is offered and Parliament agrees.
  • It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.

    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
    I think building our relationship with Russia is more critical, because until that happens, they will always be a resentful spoiler in the European and transatlantic system. Unfortunately this requires a major change of outlook and personnel in the Russian regime first.
    I’d like Russia to be democratic too but they’re an also-ran and has-been in this.

    India and China are the two emerging major power blocks.
    It's more about ensuring that our own European power bloc is coherent. Russia can't be a top-tier power on their own anymore, but they can do a lot to cause problems for us. (Essentially I agree with Macron's analysis.)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Remainer delight at the French idea of offering a 2 year extension may be misplaced. Here is how the Benn-Burt Bill treats that.
    (from the HoC Library):

    If the European Council offers a further extension, but to a date other than 31 January 2020, under subsections 3(2-3) the Prime Minister has two choices. Either he can:
    (a) agree to that extension, or
    (b) ask the House of Commons (within two calendar days) whether it wishes to approve that extension.
    If the House of Commons “decides not to pass” a specifically-worded motion approving the extension, the Prime Minister then has a free choice whether or not to agree to the extension under subsection 3(4).


    So this boils down to a choice between no-deal and a long (2-year) extension for the PM. It would be out of Parliament's hands.

    Oooh, good catch. If an extension is offered, and Parliament agrees to it, then there is no compulsion on the PM to also agree to it.
    Total misreading.
    Fair enough. Please explain. Preferably with reference to the bit where it says that the PM must also agree to the extension if it is offered and Parliament agrees.
    It doesn't say that.

    It says the PM must agree to the EU's offer, and if he doesn't, then he MUST give Parliament the decision (and they will clearly agree to the EU offer, as the alternative will be a swift No Deal). So the extension is offered and accepted.

    The PM has no further say. It is quite clear.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    How? You can't have anything beyond a 2 option (Yes / No) question without it being possible to game the final result,,
    Quite apart from that, you'd almost certainly have over half of the electorate disappointed.
  • Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    A 2nd referendum is a horrible idea, but it may be the least worst option from here. I am slowly being reconciled to it. As the one and only "democratic" means of solving this appalling puzzle.

    It needs to be binary though. The government of the day must choose between deal or no deal, then that must face off against Remain.
    Acknowledging that there's no good way forward from here- only better and worse bad ways- feels necessary to move forward, from a mature statecraft point of view.

    Tough sell politically, though.
  • Vive la France! Vive l’Europe! Vive l’Écosse!
  • It’s a declining country. It’s like how the UK started to be from the 1920s onwards with respect to global power, and is even further ahead in decline of quality of life.

    This is not a good thing. Love it or loathe it the USA anchors the whole Western way of life geopolitically.

    And this is why the EU is so important. European countries need to band together, pool their resources and stand on their own feet because the US will not always be able or willing to protect us (in the most general sense) from the Chinese and others.
    I’d say that’s true of the West as a whole.

    Geostrategically it’s become increasingly clear to me that we should build our relationship with India as well to help contain China.
    I think building our relationship with Russia is more critical, because until that happens, they will always be a resentful spoiler in the European and transatlantic system. Unfortunately this requires a major change of outlook and personnel in the Russian regime first.
    I’d like Russia to be democratic too but they’re an also-ran and has-been in this.

    India and China are the two emerging major power blocks.
    It's more about ensuring that our own European power bloc is coherent. Russia can't be a top-tier power on their own anymore, but they can do a lot to cause problems for us. (Essentially I agree with Macron's analysis.)
    There’s a surprise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    A 2nd referendum is a horrible idea, but it may be the least worst option from here. I am slowly being reconciled to it. As the one and only "democratic" means of solving this appalling puzzle.

    It needs to be binary though. The government of the day must choose between deal or no deal, then that must face off against Remain.
    No it doesn't. In fact, no it mustn't be binary.

    The public should vote on all three, either in a two-stage vote à la French presidential election, or by STV or similar* to achieve the same net result - namely that the winning option has a majority support.

    (*IANE on voting methods)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson 8% more popular than Corbyn with Labour 2017 voters - no details though!

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/09/swinson-popular-corbyn-labour-2017-voters/

    2017 Tory voters though give Boris huge +43% rating
    How much lower by the end of the month though?
    The longer it goes the worse Tory ratings will get. It’s like the German tactics from WW1 get victory in a month or we are in trouble.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    A 2nd referendum is a horrible idea, but it may be the least worst option from here. I am slowly being reconciled to it. As the one and only "democratic" means of solving this appalling puzzle.

    It needs to be binary though. The government of the day must choose between deal or no deal, then that must face off against Remain.
    Acknowledging that there's no good way forward from here- only better and worse bad ways- feels necessary to move forward, from a mature statecraft point of view.

    Tough sell politically, though.
    Yes, it requires two major party leaders with maturity, intelligence, generosity and wisdom, able to set aside narrow party advantage and come together for the good of the country. Thank God we have.....

    oh.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson 8% more popular than Corbyn with Labour 2017 voters - no details though!

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/09/swinson-popular-corbyn-labour-2017-voters/

    2017 Tory voters though give Boris huge +43% rating
    How much lower by the end of the month though?
    The longer it goes the worse Tory ratings will get. It’s like the German tactics from WW1 get victory in a month or we are in trouble.
    Makes a welcome change from the WWII references....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    How? You can't have anything beyond a 2 option (Yes / No) question without it being possible to game the final result,,
    How do you game the result with an AV approach
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    edited September 2019
    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    It really ought to fail - but this Parliament has ceased to act in a rational manner
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    It really ought to fail - but this Parliament has ceased to act in a rational manner
    They have no majority and it's a bill intended to embarrass them, of course it will pass
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    It really ought to fail - but this Parliament has ceased to act in a rational manner
    That's the motion being voted on now ?
  • New market:

    Next UK GE - Boston and Skegness (Con Maj 16,572, Matt Warman MP)

    Con 1/8
    Bxp 4/1
    Lab 25/1
    LD 100/1
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited September 2019
    Anyone know the name of the 'Pettyfogger' from a sedentary position who Bercow took a dislike to?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Vive la France! Vive l’Europe! Vive l’Écosse!
    I expected it to be four years. "Just go away and stop bothering us until you've sorted yourselves out. We have more important issues on our plate".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Sounds sensible enough from Bridgen tbh.
  • nico67 said:

    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .


    The French have said today they’ll both veto any Article 50 extension, and give us an absurdly long one.

    I suspect they are enjoying trolling both sides.
    This is why I hate Brexit, we’ve become the plaything of France.

    What a national humiliation for the UK.
    We have been the plaything of France ever since we first tried to join the EEC. Must be why a committed Francophile like you is so in favour of Remain.
    A plaything of France couldn't have imposed the Single Market and eastward expansion on it, or got an enormous rebate out of it.
    We imposed nothing.
    Highly debatable. Without the British input I very much doubt there would been a single market as we understand it, or at least not so quickly in the same form, and eastward expansion would also have been much slower, taking a different form. Britain has had influence.
    Nope we got taken for patsies. Thatchers idea was that enlargement would be in place of deepening. What actually happened was the EU happily took enlargement and then carried right on deepening just as planned. And the Single Market was on the books long before the British turned up. It was and is a fundamental foundation for the Ever Closer Union that was explicit in the original Treaty of Rome.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    It really ought to fail - but this Parliament has ceased to act in a rational manner
    That's the motion being voted on now ?
    Yes
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Humble address motion gets through 311-302.
  • New market:

    Next UK GE - Boston and Skegness (Con Maj 16,572, Matt Warman MP)

    Con 1/8
    Bxp 4/1
    Lab 25/1
    LD 100/1

    Where is that?

    Is someone starting to assemble seat markets?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Maybe we now get some reality about what’s going on but I’m sure the lying bastards will still try and game it, what are they trying to hide?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    The two-year extension has a lot to commend it. We are nowhere near sorting this mess out and endless three-month delays just embed uncertainty into the system.

    It really has little to recommend it - it's really not a complex situation anymore, we're just standing in place and time to make a decision or decide what we want is not what we need. We had plenty of time. Endless short extensions are not a good idea either, but 'sorting out this mess' can be done very quickly, indeed a lack of time might encourage it.
    Eventually we will have a binding referendum: No Deal v Deal* v Remain.

    Leavers will bleat but it is the only way out.

    (*The Deal - May's deal, complete with backstop).
    How? You can't have anything beyond a 2 option (Yes / No) question without it being possible to game the final result,,
    How do you game the result with an AV approach
    The only way I can see it working is if you have a simple question on the WA. after that the government can go back to the EU with a mandate to change the WA when it's roundly voted against.
  • New market

    Next GE - Wimbledon (Con Maj 5,622, Stephen Hammond MP)

    Con 4/7
    LD 5/4
    Lab 25/1

    (Shadsy)
  • Is Boris Johnson still on a perfect run of defeats?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    Well I got that wrong! I thought Gove made some good points.

    Prorogation is happening away and No Deal has been averted. It's time to move on.
  • Barnesian said:

    Vive la France! Vive l’Europe! Vive l’Écosse!
    I expected it to be four years. "Just go away and stop bothering us until you've sorted yourselves out. We have more important issues on our plate".
    And who can blame them?

    Brexit is 100% self-inflicted. England needs therapy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    Well I got that wrong! I thought Gove made some good points.

    Prorogation is happening away and No Deal has been averted. It's time to move on.
    Can't agree with this at all. There are some very major issues at stake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Is Boris Johnson still on a perfect run of defeats?

    How can he not be ? In any other universe the LoTO would be the PM by now. It's only because his name is Jeremy Corbyn that those opposed to the PM don't dare install him.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Is Boris Johnson still on a perfect run of defeats?

    Yes.

    It seems unreasonable to break the convention ....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited September 2019

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    Well I got that wrong! I thought Gove made some good points.

    Prorogation is happening away and No Deal has been averted. It's time to move on.
    Can't agree with this at all. There are some very major issues at stake.
    This is madness and this has implications for any government especially Corbyn

    Grieve has taken leave of his senses and is as much a fanatic as Baker and the ERG

    He is one conservative that has to be deselected

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Corbyn thanks Letwin, Eagle sounds OUTRAGED by Johnson.
  • Is Boris Johnson still on a perfect run of defeats?

    Depends how you class the early election vote, he won the vote but not by enough to meet the threshold of the FTPA.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Bollocks To Bercow - And good riddance! :D
  • New market:

    Next UK GE - Boston and Skegness (Con Maj 16,572, Matt Warman MP)

    Con 1/8
    Bxp 4/1
    Lab 25/1
    LD 100/1

    Where is that?

    Is someone starting to assemble seat markets?
    Shadsy:
    Aberdeen South
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Bishop Auckland
    Boston and Skegness
    Chingford and Woodford Green

    and 11 others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    This latest defeat is particularly embarrassing for the government. Like Barnesian I thought it would have failed, it did seem a bit overeachy at casual glance
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Pulpstar said:

    Sounds sensible enough from Bridgen tbh.
    It is the obvious way through. Also let them have the option to reverse it with another referendum at any point.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Grieve's motion will fail. I'd vote against it. Just move on.

    Well I got that wrong! I thought Gove made some good points.

    Prorogation is happening away and No Deal has been averted. It's time to move on.
    Can't agree with this at all. There are some very major issues at stake.
    This is madness and this has implications for any government especially Corbyn

    If it does, then it should already have done in nationally exceptional circumstances such as this. Gove's invocation of the ECHR, and personal privacy, both antithetical to the Tory administration of the last nine years, were extraordinary.
  • No voting system for a second referendum will satisfy everyone but I think this “Borda count” suggestion addresses the essence of the problem and is the best way forward: http://theconversation.com/brexit-deadlock-this-three-way-referendum-design-could-break-it-108217
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Does the "humble address" require any communications to be handed over that the court cases last week didn't already require?

    If the special advisers didn't comply with a court order, why would they comply with a parliamentary order...
This discussion has been closed.