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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his ea

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  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Modesty, though, hasn't historically been a strong suit of Dan Hodges, either.
    Exactly...takes one showboater to know another.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I think you are making an error in continually referring back to the 2017 performance and the fact that Corbyn trashed May's polling leads

    That was unusually bad - the Tories had a wooden leader, there were unforced errors in the manifesto, Labour were given a free run because of May's determination to hog the credit, Corbyn was "never going to win" so he was a risk-free protest vote, people hadn't listened to him in the past so what he offered was fresh and new.

    Some of those have been partially mitigated in this election.

    Of course "this time it's different" are some of the most dangerous words in the world of investing
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I get kids should look smart but some of the stuff I'm seeing on school uniforms would make the HJ blush.

    Unless your son wants to turn up with a couple of gold stud earrings, a gold rolex and *regulation* skirt and tights in which case he's perfectly free to do so...

    HJ??
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    I think he has the second smallest majority of an MP as well.
  • Charles said:

    I think you are making an error in continually referring back to the 2017 performance and the fact that Corbyn trashed May's polling leads

    That was unusually bad - the Tories had a wooden leader, there were unforced errors in the manifesto, Labour were given a free run because of May's determination to hog the credit, Corbyn was "never going to win" so he was a risk-free protest vote, people hadn't listened to him in the past so what he offered was fresh and new.

    Some of those have been partially mitigated in this election.

    Of course "this time it's different" are some of the most dangerous words in the world of investing

    Do you think Boris Johnson has any chance of matching Theresa May's 42.4% of the popular vote?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Well, he kind of has to, otherwise Bercow remains an MP.
    Only until the election.
    Given how resistant the current bunch of MPs seem to be to an election, that could be a long time coming.
    The next parliament will probably be as riven as this one. Only with Corbyn in charge of a SNP-PC-LD-LAB-Green Gov't.

    It'll make the Johnson premiership look like halycon days.
    That is why Johnson is better off losing the election. But, not too badly.

    He needs most seats, but providing he ensures Corby has to depend on SNP & PC & LD & Greens, Johnson should be fine.
    Too clever by half.

    Coalitions often last a lot longer than people predict.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    Wishart is a proper numpty. But no reason why an SNP MP shouldn't be speaker. I think the SNP actually have a much better idea of the kinds of problems that need to be addressed in that place than most.
    Just.. not Wishart.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Have I got this right - Bercow to stand down as Speaker on the 31st Oct so that he can be installed as PM at 22:59 and Revoke Brexit with 1 minute to spare?

    What's really scary is that I'm sure Bercow has fantasised about exactly that scenario.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I get kids should look smart but some of the stuff I'm seeing on school uniforms would make the HJ blush.

    Unless your son wants to turn up with a couple of gold stud earrings, a gold rolex and *regulation* skirt and tights in which case he's perfectly free to do so...

    HJ??
    Hitlerjugend = Hitler Youth. Though the comparison puzzles me, unless badges for Junior Storm Monitor for Keyboard Wiping are a thing nowadays.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Noo said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    Wishart is a proper numpty. But no reason why an SNP MP shouldn't be speaker. I think the SNP actually have a much better idea of the kinds of problems that need to be addressed in that place than most.
    Just.. not Wishart.
    One thing I respect about the SNP is that they've never sent anyone into the Lords and won't on principle.
  • Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
    Nah, I'd love to be in the constituency of the Speaker.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I get kids should look smart but some of the stuff I'm seeing on school uniforms would make the HJ blush.

    Unless your son wants to turn up with a couple of gold stud earrings, a gold rolex and *regulation* skirt and tights in which case he's perfectly free to do so...

    Who is HJ?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow was the complete opposite of the previous speaker, Michael Martin, who almost never said anything of any note. But some people would have preferred that.

    He'll go down in history as a forceful character who changed some things, and made friends and enemies along the way. I suspect he'll be happy with that summation.
    Do Speakers go down in history? - seems to me that it's a "5 minutes of fame" job and boy did Bercow milk it.
    Some do, some don't. I'd suggest largely the good ones don't. He will.
    I think both Bernard Wetherill and Betty Boothroyd will go down in history as good speakers.

    The next two... not so much.
    There could be more than one definition of a good speaker. Is his role supposed to be a seamlessly invisible facilitator, or is the ultimately most important function to represent the interests of MP's as a whole, in a different way, in relation to the executive ? No one's ever codified that, and after 1642 the Speaker wasn't supposed to be an "agent of Crown" ; his modern role is also supposed to be to "represent parliament to the sovereign."

    So arguably he's been a brilliant speaker from one point of view, and a a terrible one from another. Either way he'll go down in history.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    You don't get to pick and choose who is and isn't British and Nirish unless you don't believe in the union.

    Seriously, though, it might be an interesting choice if you want someone neutral between C, L and LD and who wasn't planning on a Bercow-like length of career.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
    Nah, I'd love to be in the constituency of the Speaker.
    Takes the stress out of that voting malarkey. Or wait, no it doesn't. Means you'd HAVE to vote for O'Mara if you respect tradition :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
    Wait, are you talking about Johnson or Bercow?
  • I don't often watch parliament on TV but watched the Speaker's announcement in case he said anything market-moving. The thing that struck me was how confident and relaxed Corbyn seemed during his tribute. He's really up for the forthcoming election and might well give the Conservatives another fright. He'd wipe the floor with Johnson in any debate.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    ironically that would be exactly the same effect as revoking and re-invoking, which we don't need any permission from the French to do! Love it.

  • I don't often watch parliament on TV but watched the Speaker's announcement in case he said anything market-moving. The thing that struck me was how confident and relaxed Corbyn seemed during his tribute. He's really up for the forthcoming election and might well give the Conservatives another fright. He'd wipe the floor with Johnson in any debate.

    The precedent is for a beleaguered PM to send the Home Secretary into the debates, so it might be Corbyn versus Priti Patel. :)
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    You don't get to pick and choose who is and isn't British and Nirish unless you don't believe in the union.

    Seriously, though, it might be an interesting choice if you want someone neutral between C, L and LD and who wasn't planning on a Bercow-like length of career.
    Neutral? We all know it would be Bercow's kind of "neutral"?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
    Nah, I'd love to be in the constituency of the Speaker.
    Takes the stress out of that voting malarkey. Or wait, no it doesn't. Means you'd HAVE to vote for O'Mara if you respect tradition :D
    So who are you going to vote for in your upcoming by election?
  • tpfkar said:

    ironically that would be exactly the same effect as revoking and re-invoking, which we don't need any permission from the French to do! Love it.

    Would give time for the total take over of the Tory Party by the Brexit Party. Which might happen anywaym but would totally change the face of UK politics.


    Far right vs far left...not an appetising choices.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    Unionist democracy for you. He is already in the parliament and in any normal country would be perfectly entitled to be considered , but as this is a banana republic the dictatorship will not allow it. Ironic these unionist arses try to pretend it is not just England in the union.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Pulpstar said:

    Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
    Nah, I'd love to be in the constituency of the Speaker.
    Takes the stress out of that voting malarkey. Or wait, no it doesn't. Means you'd HAVE to vote for O'Mara if you respect tradition :D
    So who are you going to vote for in your upcoming by election?
    I'd have been perfectly happy with Mann seeing as he tried to pass the WA and is a massive opponent of Corbyn. However he's out now so definitely not Labour.

    That's the first party I'm ruling out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    I'm sure people here will have points of view regarding the goodness or badness of the Speaker. My two cents is that doing this here, now is self-indulgent: stay until done, don't bugger off halfway thru.
    I don't know why Bercow is doing this. He seemed absolutely committed to Remain, and was a hugely valuable ally for the Remainers. It's V likely that Brexit will be unsolved by Oct 31.

    So.... why is he stepping down?
    So that the House of Remainers can pick another Remainer to replace him before an election that might result in a Leave victory and a Leave Speaker.
    The new Speaker will only last until a Leave victory in that scenario.
    Exactly. Moreover, any new Speaker will know this, and won't want to be sacked a few weeks after taking office, so they are going to be much less partisan than Bercow.

    This is why Griece just publicly regretted Bercow's departure. Odd.
    May be someone didn't like Bercow ruling that Queen's Consent wasn't required for the erosion of the Royal Prerogative
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    I think he has the second smallest majority of an MP as well.
    And that matters a jot, is he or is he not an MP. I never knew the speaker was restricted to an English MP with a large majority. Unwritten rules like the constitution no doubt.
  • malcolmg said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
    Which one?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I don't often watch parliament on TV but watched the Speaker's announcement in case he said anything market-moving. The thing that struck me was how confident and relaxed Corbyn seemed during his tribute. He's really up for the forthcoming election and might well give the Conservatives another fright. He'd wipe the floor with Johnson in any debate.

    I don't know about wiping the floor. Neither of them are as engaging as Blair was. Both have a tendency to waffle like an inexperienced backbencher, and neither really give the impression they have all the information at their fingertips like May did. Neither of them have the bruising passion of Brown, or the unflappable confidence of Sturgeon. In short, neither of them are natural leaders.

    What this means is that in a debate there's scope for another participant to come in a make them both look like the chumps they are. Both Swinson and Farage would pick them apart.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    First qualification to be speaker to me seems to be the possession of an ultra strong bladder.

    or a catheter
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    Apperently the level of homelessness in L.A is at another level
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jared O'Mara for Speaker.

    That's just your book talking.....
    Nah, I'd love to be in the constituency of the Speaker.
    Takes the stress out of that voting malarkey. Or wait, no it doesn't. Means you'd HAVE to vote for O'Mara if you respect tradition :D
    So who are you going to vote for in your upcoming by election?
    I'd have been perfectly happy with Mann seeing as he tried to pass the WA and is a massive opponent of Corbyn. However he's out now so definitely not Labour.

    That's the first party I'm ruling out.
    I'm going to rule out the Brexit party also on the basis it'd make me a massive F*ing pariah and "No deal" is so clearly a poor policy on economic grounds.

    Anything else would be a wasted vote, so it's between the Tories and the Lib Dems. Unless some really amusing independent stands. I went for "The Independent Network" in the euros...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    Is that by year, or by session?
    By session, I guess. Because this session started in 2017.
    The axis heading "number of urgent questions by session" contains a clue
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    I think he has the second smallest majority of an MP as well.
    And that matters a jot, is he or is he not an MP. I never knew the speaker was restricted to an English MP with a large majority. Unwritten rules like the constitution no doubt.
    Speakers don't usually have small majorities.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    I'm sure people here will have points of view regarding the goodness or badness of the Speaker. My two cents is that doing this here, now is self-indulgent: stay until done, don't bugger off halfway thru.
    I don't know why Bercow is doing this. He seemed absolutely committed to Remain, and was a hugely valuable ally for the Remainers. It's V likely that Brexit will be unsolved by Oct 31.

    So.... why is he stepping down?
    So that the House of Remainers can pick another Remainer to replace him before an election that might result in a Leave victory and a Leave Speaker.
    The new Speaker will only last until a Leave victory in that scenario.
    Exactly. Moreover, any new Speaker will know this, and won't want to be sacked a few weeks after taking office, so they are going to be much less partisan than Bercow.

    This is why Griece just publicly regretted Bercow's departure. Odd.
    May be someone didn't like Bercow ruling that Queen's Consent wasn't required for the erosion of the Royal Prerogative
    I floated that on here several days ago....
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    The word "traitor" gets overused a lot, but there is a really strong case building against Trump. The democrats would be mad not to open formal impeachment hearings. The US public needs to see this stuff being debated at length before the election so they know whether or not they are comfortable with this man being trusted with state secrets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Surely if you're homeless you want to be somewhere with mild winters and rich people nearby to beg from ? Which is your point :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
    Wait, are you talking about Johnson or Bercow?
    Bercow is a great speaker, I am of course talking Johnson. They don't like him because he does not kow tow to the government.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    First qualification to be speaker to me seems to be the possession of an ultra strong bladder.

    or a catheter
    What you want is the StadiumPal. It's also great if you've got a long flight in a middle seat in economy. No need to clamber over someone to get to the bathroom, just let it go.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Have the quiche-eating Remainers been taking to the streets to get more time for this? Pathetic.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171090130087612418
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
    Which one?
    NOT Bercow
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting timing. Can't see Boris recommnding Bercow for a peerage.....

    Your are right he is a nasty vindictive, petty, petulant and unpleasant person.
    Wait, are you talking about Johnson or Bercow?
    Bercow is a great speaker, I am of course talking Johnson. They don't like him because he does not kow tow to the government.
    He's far too important to kow tow to anyone
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    nunuone said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    Apperently the level of homelessness in L.A is at another level
    As a resident of Los Angeles, yes, there is more homelessness there than London. They are mostly the mentally ill, many of them veterans.

    But it's also very possible not to see a single homeless person in LA. They aren't diffuse, like in London, they're concentrated in a few spots: near the Veterans Affairs building in Westwood, in one bit of Santa Monica, and downtown on "Skid Row".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    AndyJS said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    I think he has the second smallest majority of an MP as well.
    And that matters a jot, is he or is he not an MP. I never knew the speaker was restricted to an English MP with a large majority. Unwritten rules like the constitution no doubt.
    Speakers don't usually have small majorities.
    It is not a rule though
  • I do wonder if some Tories might find a few extra tributes handy to delay things a bit.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    ..
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    lol!

    I think this commenter underneath has diagnosed it perfectly

    "He was about to put his hands in his pockets. He then remembers he’s not supposed to do that, so does what anyone with the mental age of a 10yr old would do - pretend he had something else to do with his arms instead"
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AndyJS said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Haha. No chance an SNP MP getting to be speaker. Ironic wanting to stand to be speaker for a parliament you don't want to be in.
    I think he has the second smallest majority of an MP as well.
    And that matters a jot, is he or is he not an MP. I never knew the speaker was restricted to an English MP with a large majority. Unwritten rules like the constitution no doubt.
    Speakers don't usually have small majorities.
    North Korean type elections?
  • Is the Paean of Bercow still going on?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I think you are making an error in continually referring back to the 2017 performance and the fact that Corbyn trashed May's polling leads

    That was unusually bad - the Tories had a wooden leader, there were unforced errors in the manifesto, Labour were given a free run because of May's determination to hog the credit, Corbyn was "never going to win" so he was a risk-free protest vote, people hadn't listened to him in the past so what he offered was fresh and new.

    Some of those have been partially mitigated in this election.

    Of course "this time it's different" are some of the most dangerous words in the world of investing

    Do you think Boris Johnson has any chance of matching Theresa May's 42.4% of the popular vote?
    I wouldn't be surprised at mid 30s with both Lib/Lab in or close to the 20s.

    But 40+ would startle me
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Btw I hope everyone follows this guy

    https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z on twitter - superbly dry wit on parliament and so forth.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Have the quiche-eating Remainers been taking to the streets to get more time for this? Pathetic.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171090130087612418

    Yawn
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Wow sums it up pretty well.

    At some point the left needs to figure out how to weaponise (to borrow a phrase) national security. It's ridiculous right wing parties keep getting a free pass because they're always ready to offer platitudes about veterans and the military.
  • Mr. Eagles, the recent exit polls have been fantastically good.
  • Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It’s Brexit’s best chance. Leavers need a complete rethink about what they want. This gives them the time and space to have that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It’s Brexit’s best chance. Leavers need a complete rethink about what they want. This gives them the time and space to have that.
    You say /re/-think...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Btw I hope everyone follows this guy

    https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z on twitter - superbly dry wit on parliament and so forth.

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It’s Brexit’s best chance. Leavers need a complete rethink about what they want. This gives them the time and space to have that.
    I'd have thought the best move from the EU (Well what I'd be minded to do) is to just extend till after the British people have had either a GE or a 2nd ref. Then weep as the GE comes back as inconclusive as this one.

    The Tories stripping themselves of remainers and Labour leavers leaving for the next parliament reduces the probability that we'll have a parliament QUITE so hung though (On Brexit at least)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It has to be agreed by Parliament, but also extension does not require the whole time to be used. The current extension, and indeed the original 2 year A50 period, allow earlier Brexit if both parties agree.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It’s Brexit’s best chance. Leavers need a complete rethink about what they want. This gives them the time and space to have that.
    You and I both know that a 2 year delay to Brexit will kill Brexit. Maybe it's for the best. But I fear for our democratic future if this happens. And do the French REALLY want a bitterly divided, angry, snarling Britain still inside the EU?!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.
    Explains Trump. Most of these areas have been under Democrat control for decades.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711
    If extension is granted for two years, would it still be possible to leave more quickly?

    ie Could Boris then campaign in a GE to leave after say 3 months?

    If so, might actually help Boris electorally - would give him the easy line "I'm the only person who will get the UK to leave"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    First qualification to be speaker to me seems to be the possession of an ultra strong bladder.

    or a catheter
    What you want is the StadiumPal. It's also great if you've got a long flight in a middle seat in economy. No need to clamber over someone to get to the bathroom, just let it go.
    what's a "middle seat in economy"?
  • Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    I am not averse to that idea as nothing would change but from a brexit point of view brexit is likely to be over as I cannot see a Boris majority and the remainers will get a referendum and the vote is most likely to be remain and that is fine by me.

    The more interesting question is who heads the next government as it is likely to be very restricted on anything it can do
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    It’s Brexit’s best chance. Leavers need a complete rethink about what they want. This gives them the time and space to have that.
    It does mean we are stuck with Boris for two years though.
  • Regarding YouGov's excellent MRP/Constituency polling

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1171095005882195973
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    MikeL said:

    If extension is granted for two years, would it still be possible to leave more quickly?

    ie Could Boris then campaign in a GE to leave after say 3 months?

    If so, might actually help Boris electorally - would give him the easy line "I'm the only person who will get the UK to leave"

    Yes, of course. If parliament agrees to that, that course of action is available.
  • Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.

    We did an event in Seattle a couple of years back and had homeless people wandering into it off the streets. I was not there, but colleagues say it is a pitiful place. I can't imagine anyhting is as bad as San Francisco, though. As I said before, it's the worst, the bleakest and most abject homlessness I have seen outside of India. It is genuinely jaw-dropping.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.
    Explains Trump. Most of these areas have been under Democrat control for decades.
    Except, as RCS points out, many of those homeless move there from out of town, often Red states across the West. Many too are ex-military and/or mentally ill. After care in the VA and the US health system is pretty damning of Trumpism.
  • Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK

    Does it, though? There would be nothing to stop the UK leaving before that.

  • Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.

    Even John Lyndon is appalled by the anarchy of homelessness on his doorstep.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6966735/Sex-Pistols-Johnny-Rotten-complains-homeless-crisis-LA-neighborhood.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019
    If so Boris will definitely resign by the end of the month and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket against PM Clarke, Harman or whoever it ends up being asking for and agreeing a 2 year extension (Swinson and the 21 Tory rebels vetoing Corbyn as PM of course)
  • Byronic said:

    lol!

    I think this commenter underneath has diagnosed it perfectly

    "He was about to put his hands in his pockets. He then remembers he’s not supposed to do that, so does what anyone with the mental age of a 10yr old would do - pretend he had something else to do with his arms instead"

    Yep, every parent will recognise that behaviour - and that expressin. The UK Prime Minister is a naughty boy who is very awkward in adult company.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    I am not averse to that idea as nothing would change but from a brexit point of view brexit is likely to be over as I cannot see a Boris majority and the remainers will get a referendum and the vote is most likely to be remain and that is fine by me.

    The more interesting question is who heads the next government as it is likely to be very restricted on anything it can do
    Yes, the French are possibly doing us a favour here. Another 3 month extension just punts the can.

    2 years gives us time to do anything, from general election to revoke to a 2nd referendum to another attempt at solving the backstop (God help us).

    But, I still think a 2 year delay will kill Brexit. I feel it in my bones.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I can’t believe France wants this to drag on for a few more years .

    I’d take these suggestions with a pinch of salt .

    At most I think they might offer 6 months . This would allow an election , a new deal and ratification .
  • HYUFD said:

    If so Boris will definitely resign by the end of the month and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket against PM Clarke, Harman or whoever it ends up being asking for and agreeing a 2 year extension (Swinson and the 21 Tory rebels vetoing Corbyn as PM of course)
    Where is Boris's guaranteed majority you were so recently confident off
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    I think it's overly optimistic to assume Brexit will be solved after another two years.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Aha! That fucks us. This was always implicit in the Surrender Bill.

    EEEEEK
    I am not averse to that idea as nothing would change but from a brexit point of view brexit is likely to be over as I cannot see a Boris majority and the remainers will get a referendum and the vote is most likely to be remain and that is fine by me.

    The more interesting question is who heads the next government as it is likely to be very restricted on anything it can do
    Yes, the French are possibly doing us a favour here. Another 3 month extension just punts the can.

    2 years gives us time to do anything, from general election to revoke to a 2nd referendum to another attempt at solving the backstop (God help us).

    But, I still think a 2 year delay will kill Brexit. I feel it in my bones.
    You and me both
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    If so Boris will definitely resign by the end of the month and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket against PM Clarke, Harman or whoever it ends up being asking for and agreeing a 2 year extension (Swinson and the 21 Tory rebels vetoing Corbyn as PM of course)
    What are you going to do if Boris asks for the extension?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    tpfkar said:

    ironically that would be exactly the same effect as revoking and re-invoking, which we don't need any permission from the French to do! Love it.

    Would give time for the total take over of the Tory Party by the Brexit Party. Which might happen anywaym but would totally change the face of UK politics.


    Far right vs far left...not an appetising choices.
    Off topic, are you partying like it's 2004 again :) ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    If so Boris will definitely resign by the end of the month and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket against PM Clarke, Harman or whoever it ends up being asking for and agreeing a 2 year extension (Swinson and the 21 Tory rebels vetoing Corbyn as PM of course)
    Where is Boris's guaranteed majority you were so recently confident off
    Boris will have a 10%+ poll lead across the board within a month if he leads the Tories into opposition committed to deliver Brexit against a governing coalition of Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid, Greens and 21 anti No Deal Tories agreeing to a French demand to extend for 2 years rather than deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    HYUFD said:

    If so Boris will definitely resign by the end of the month and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket against PM Clarke, Harman or whoever it ends up being asking for and agreeing a 2 year extension (Swinson and the 21 Tory rebels vetoing Corbyn as PM of course)
    What are you going to do if Boris asks for the extension?
    pivot rapidly, as well you know
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    With Bercow now completely free I wonder what he might get upto when the Commons comes back.

  • Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.
  • nico67 said:

    With Bercow now completely free I wonder what he might get upto when the Commons comes back.

    Whatever it is, he will make sure to remind everyone he knows what he’s doing.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.
    We're not great. but we are very much better than the USA. San Francisco has times the number of homeless, per capita, compared to London.
    California, though, attracts the homeless from all over America. Would you rather sleep on the streets of San Diego or Boise, Idaho?
    Yet apparently (I've not been north of California recently) the homelessness is spread across the West Coast. It's also bad in Portland, and likewise Seattle (whose climate is very similar to London)

    And you missed Venice Beach on your list of LA disaster zones. I was there a few months back and Fuck me, it's edgy. It borders on dystopian. Urban America is in serious trouble.

    We did an event in Seattle a couple of years back and had homeless people wandering into it off the streets. I was not there, but colleagues say it is a pitiful place. I can't imagine anyhting is as bad as San Francisco, though. As I said before, it's the worst, the bleakest and most abject homlessness I have seen outside of India. It is genuinely jaw-dropping.

    Yes, your description of San Fran's homeless situation was vivid and depressing. It chimes with what I've heard and read elsewhere.

    How has the richest country in the world ended up here? America has grievous problems and doesn't seem to be solving them. Or even trying to.

    Relatedly, I've been catching up with the entire food-and-travel TV oeuvre of Anthony Bourdain (RIP). Along with the glamour spots he visits some indescribably depressing towns and cities, from New Jersey to Detroit to Cleveland. He has the worst meal in western history in Cleveland, a meal which seems emblematic of American decline. Hail the famous "3 way":

    "3-Way
    Our signature dish – steaming spaghetti covered with our original secret-recipe chili and topped with a mound of shredded cheddar cheese."

    https://www.skylinechili.com/menu/


    Apparently the chili has no beans, and is flavoured with cinnamon. Yes.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The only winner at the moment is Farage. The more delays there are, the more popular he becomes.
  • Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    Homelessness seems to up in Maidenhead as well. Not sure it is locals though.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019

    Re: Homelessness. Here in small town Leaverstan it's been the defining event of the last few years. 1. The town centre park being slowly overwhelmed by street drinkers, drug dealing, drug use, rough sleeping etc. 2. The communal hallways of dozens of attractive social housing blocks being taken over as drug dealing locations and shooting galleries. 3. The number of people in front rank mental health crisis wandering the streets often begging or raiding bins.

    In terms of public squalor the consensus is the town has seen nothing like it since the last of the industrial slum clearences in the '30s.

    The homelessness situation is also rising in key parts of central London. Marked change in the last few years, and noticeably, a large number of english people from outside central London.
This discussion has been closed.