So No Deal can still happen if Boris wins the election and can't get the deal he wants?
Yes. But let's think the possibilities through:
1) Con Majority > 10: Doesn't need the DUP, so do the NI-only backstop, rename it "alternative arrangements" and declare victory. 2) Con Majority < 10 / Con+DUP Majority: Can't get a deal through, but there are still enough rebels left in the Tory Party to combine with the opposition and block No Deal. 3) Less than that: Corbyn won't do No Deal
...so you only get No Deal if either: 1) BXP win a bunch of seats and Boris needs their votes. But that's hard to square with Boris still being PM 2) Boris genuinely wants to do No Deal, as opposed to this all being politics, which sounds improbable
Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
I think that move would also be justified by publicly available information: If the bill passes and gets Royal Assent in time, what seems to be Corbyn's current justification for refusing an election disappears and he'd probably vote for it.
There was never going to be another EU referendum before a GE, in my opinion. A general election is the closest thing there's going to be to one. (There might just be another referendum after the GE if the Tories lose and the new government can't decide what to do).
- Go to Council meeting and say, "I'll have the WA with the original NI-only backstop please." - Sell it as a triumphant removal of the backstop and get it through the HoC
WA+lipstick will only work with a pretty sizable majority. Seems unlikely.
Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
We know there has been a deal between the Commons front benches because that was explicitly stated by both Lords front benches. We are all assuming the deal includes Labour voting for a GE because why else have the Government gift wrapped the Benn Bill ?
That assumption is more than enough to move Betfair by 0.6.
Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
I think that move would also be justified by publicly available information: If the bill passes and gets Royal Assent in time, what seems to be Corbyn's current justification for refusing an election disappears and he'd probably vote for it.
Yes, but does Corbyn still insist on date post 31 Oct so Boris has humiliation of having to extend?
But if GE voted through on Mon / Tues it's then a very long campaign if GE not until early Nov.
But also very tight the other way as well - Boris planned date of 15 Oct is exactly 5 weeks from Tuesday - implying vote on Monday and then 24 hours for dissolution + proclamation - not sure if that's possible.
So it's awkward either way.
Finally if GE not approved until post prorogation then earliest possible GE is final week of Nov - which seems very late in the year weather wise.
Yes, but does Corbyn still insist on date post 31 Oct so Boris has humiliation of having to extend?
He might, but it's definitely substantially less likely than it was an hour ago.
It's probably not practical to try to bind him on the date, so if Corbyn wants to avoid the election I think he's more likely to either:
a) Stall until the recess, then demand Boris un-prorogue parliament so he can vote for the election b) Just not whip very hard and let some of his guys abstain
- Go to Council meeting and say, "I'll have the WA with the original NI-only backstop please." - Sell it as a triumphant removal of the backstop and get it through the HoC
WA+lipstick will only work with a pretty sizable majority. Seems unlikely.
Indeed. There’s at least 30 odd ERGers that won’t let him do that and conceivably as many that would defect to BPE/Brexit Independent as have just done the other way.
I suspect if he gets his majority it’s going where I’ve long thought, with an agri union in Ireland, served with a big helping of fudge on everything else. Whether that happens before or some time after No Deal who knows.
Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
We know there has been a deal between the Commons front benches because that was explicitly stated by both Lords front benches. We are all assuming the deal includes Labour voting for a GE because why else have the Government gift wrapped the Benn Bill ?
That assumption is more than enough to move Betfair by 0.6.
Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?
I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.
The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
Front pages are split between Corbyn's a *** and Boris is a *** (except for the Daily Star which leads on the dangers of large breasts when feeding babies.)
Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?
I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.
The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
Sunset around 18.00 by mid-October - but you’re right, plenty of ammo for the conspiracy theorists - what happens if Brexit causes a tin foil shortage?
Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?
I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.
The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
Conservative Dominic Grieve 36,559 65.3 +2.0 Labour James English 12,016 21.4 +10.0 Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 4,448 7.9 +0.6 UKIP John Conway 1,609 2.9 -10.9 Green Russell Secker 1,396 2.5 -1.7
Referendum: Leave 49%, Remain 51%
He might hold it if LD stand aside, probably out of reach for Lab even if the Con vote splits perfectly in two.
Conservative Dominic Grieve 36,559 65.3 +2.0 Labour James English 12,016 21.4 +10.0 Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 4,448 7.9 +0.6 UKIP John Conway 1,609 2.9 -10.9 Green Russell Secker 1,396 2.5 -1.7
Referendum: Leave 49%, Remain 51%
He might hold it if LD stand aside, probably out of reach for Lab even if the Con vote splits perfectly in two.
Yes, he'd have a good chance if there was no LD candidate. If there is a LD candidate I'd expect the official Conservative to be elected.
Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?
I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.
The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
Tuesday daytime is not fine; Tuesday evening is fine. (Of course, on a normal day, these voters might be at work during the day so would still vote in the evening.)
It could all be a devious plot to postpone the election till after Brexit by moving polling day one day at a time.
Like you, I'd prefer to stick to Thursdays but no doubt Cummings (or Crosby) has his reasons.
Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?
I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.
The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
Tuesday daytime is not fine; Tuesday evening is fine. (Of course, on a normal day, these voters might be at work during the day so would still vote in the evening.)
It could all be a devious plot to postpone the election till after Brexit by moving polling day one day at a time.
Like you, I'd prefer to stick to Thursdays but no doubt Cummings (or Crosby) has his reasons.
I think Monday was totally off limits, so an improvement over that.
I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me
I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me
Boris's whole strategy is to pretend that he's going to get a deal that removes the backstop, once they get right up to the deadline it becomes obvious that he isn't.
I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me
Boris's whole strategy is to pretend that he's going to get a deal that removes the backstop, once they get right up to the deadline it becomes obvious that he isn't.
More notably, Boris wants the election before Brexit in case Project Fear was right.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
So if the DUP is shrinking, and parliament can stop No Deal, it feels like No Deal should be almost a subset of Con Maj. (Unless we think Macron or Orban are going to say "fuck everything, no more extensions", which is possible but I think pretty improbable, since they would own the consequences.)
Furthermore, given Con Maj, I think No Deal is no more than a 50/50 shot, since Boris will obviously want to avoid it, and if his majority is big then he can pass a variation on the WA, while if it's teensy he can't make parliament let him do No Deal.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Front pages are split between Corbyn's a *** and Boris is a *** (except for the Daily Star which leads on the dangers of large breasts when feeding babies.)
When the **** are we getting some new polling? My nerves can't take it!
Will the Tories lose points due to their collective meltdown? Will enraged Leavers flock to them now that Boris has purged the party? Will both effects cancel each other out?
Comments
1) Con Majority > 10: Doesn't need the DUP, so do the NI-only backstop, rename it "alternative arrangements" and declare victory.
2) Con Majority < 10 / Con+DUP Majority: Can't get a deal through, but there are still enough rebels left in the Tory Party to combine with the opposition and block No Deal.
3) Less than that: Corbyn won't do No Deal
...so you only get No Deal if either:
1) BXP win a bunch of seats and Boris needs their votes. But that's hard to square with Boris still being PM
2) Boris genuinely wants to do No Deal, as opposed to this all being politics, which sounds improbable
Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
WA+lipstick will only work with a pretty sizable majority. Seems unlikely.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1169412368226562050?s=20
That assumption is more than enough to move Betfair by 0.6.
But if GE voted through on Mon / Tues it's then a very long campaign if GE not until early Nov.
But also very tight the other way as well - Boris planned date of 15 Oct is exactly 5 weeks from Tuesday - implying vote on Monday and then 24 hours for dissolution + proclamation - not sure if that's possible.
So it's awkward either way.
Finally if GE not approved until post prorogation then earliest possible GE is final week of Nov - which seems very late in the year weather wise.
It's probably not practical to try to bind him on the date, so if Corbyn wants to avoid the election I think he's more likely to either:
a) Stall until the recess, then demand Boris un-prorogue parliament so he can vote for the election
b) Just not whip very hard and let some of his guys abstain
I suspect if he gets his majority it’s going where I’ve long thought, with an agri union in Ireland, served with a big helping of fudge on everything else. Whether that happens before or some time after No Deal who knows.
Con 350, Lab 193, SNP 51, LD 34.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49588171
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1169367706908291072?s=20
Conservative Dominic Grieve 36,559 65.3 +2.0
Labour James English 12,016 21.4 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 4,448 7.9 +0.6
UKIP John Conway 1,609 2.9 -10.9
Green Russell Secker 1,396 2.5 -1.7
Referendum: Leave 49%, Remain 51%
He might hold it if LD stand aside, probably out of reach for Lab even if the Con vote splits perfectly in two.
It could all be a devious plot to postpone the election till after Brexit by moving polling day one day at a time.
Like you, I'd prefer to stick to Thursdays but no doubt Cummings (or Crosby) has his reasons.
I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/dominic-cummings-stank-of-booze-in-jeremy-corbyn-standoff-a4228871.html
Furthermore, given Con Maj, I think No Deal is no more than a 50/50 shot, since Boris will obviously want to avoid it, and if his majority is big then he can pass a variation on the WA, while if it's teensy he can't make parliament let him do No Deal.
The upshot is that there's value in either Con Maj, or No No Deal, or both.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Javid 10/1
Mordaunt 16/1
Rees-Mogg 16/1
Cleverley 20/1
Gove 20/1
Hunt 20/1
Raab 20/1
Patel 25/1
Rudd 25/1
Stewart 25/1
What an absolute shower!
Lacks authority
Who?
Gift to SNP
Who?
Slimebag
Personality vacuum
Evil
Thick as shit
ERG despise her
Is he even still a Tory?
On past form, the evil one will win it.
At 1am it was 2.3.
Will the Tories lose points due to their collective meltdown? Will enraged Leavers flock to them now that Boris has purged the party? Will both effects cancel each other out?