After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explain....does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see
Night night from SPARTA
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
They won't, the Tories got 65% in Beaconsfield in 2017, even if that vote split 50-50 between the Tory candidate and Grieve given Labour only got 21% and the LDs got 7% one of them would still win
How do you know what Labour and Lib Dem voters would do ? Your mind certainly cannot read their minds.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Indeed. I would think they have better chances than most independents due to incumbency and the nature of the Tory split and the national situation. Still the point is the Independents might not win but the Tories will have to divert resources they could of used elsewhere.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Rory Stewart too. He seems well liked on his patch.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
They won't, the Tories got 65% in Beaconsfield in 2017, even if that vote split 50-50 between the Tory candidate and Grieve given Labour only got 21% and the LDs got 7% one of them would still win
How do you know what Labour and Lib Dem voters would do ? Your mind certainly cannot read their minds.
Even if they combined and none vote for Grieve that still makes only 28% for the Labour and LDs combined and 32.5% for Grieve and the same for the Tory candidate and that assumes most of Grieve's vote does not go Tory which is very unlikely, S Bucks narrowly voted Leave and Tory voters even more so
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Hammond is only going to have the Executive canvassing for him - and hardly any of the members, pissed off as they are that his "re-selection" was a stitch-up......
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Hang on until the 21st November so that he lasts longer than Canning.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact now reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
Without action chicken photos and crying grit will get a bit wearing. If there is no election what, in practice, is Johnson going to do?
Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.
So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.
But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.
+1
-1
The Labour strategy is bang on point.
Nobody in their right mind would give Boris an election at the time of his own choosing.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Hammond is only going to have the Executive canvassing for him - and hardly any of the members, pissed off as they are that his "re-selection" was a stitch-up......
Stephen Hammond may do very well. Wimbledon is heartland Remania.
I would think some of the others will pull off independent victories too.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explain....does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see
Night night from SPARTA
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
You surely know, every possibility has been "war-gamed" thousands of time.
Great headlines for the Government tonight, Corbyn blocks Brexit and the Government ends austerity and increases spending on the NHS and police etc.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.
Well at one point I couldn't see how any Brexit would happen any other way except Jezza implementing it.
And remember I'd have voted for May's deal on MV2 and MV3 and though the ERG etc were dumb not to...
Well if isam was sincere when he said he'd consider voting Labour again in a post-Brexit world, perhaps Paul Embery's notion that an electoral nirvana awaits Labour by embracing a staunch leave position isn't as bonkers at it seems (though I still suspect not).
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
There'll be an election after 31st. Corbyn though will have his Pyrrhic Victory insofar Johnson will have failed to take us out of the EU by that date.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact now reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
" Corbyn blocks Brexit " headlines ain't much use to the LDs. They run the danger of coalescing the Remain vote. The split nature of which has given the Tories big polling leads.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact now reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
Without action chicken photos and crying grit will get a bit wearing. If there is no election what, in practice, is Johnson going to do?
From next week Jezza can just shrug. "I would be happy to vote for an election, but Parliament is prorogued at the orders of Johnson." I am happy to have a vote on it when we have reconvened and dealt with emergency matters.
BoZo is hoist by his own prorogation. His master startegist seems to be the General Burnside of British politics.
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Rory Stewart too. He seems well liked on his patch.
That is a very interesting example.
Given the huge Conservative vote, it would take a remarkable personal following to win it as an independent candidate (possibly aided by the LDs standing aside for him, as Swinson has hinted at, should the local party agree). On the other hand, it’s quite possible he gets the whip restored, given the current unrest in the party.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Hammond is only going to have the Executive canvassing for him - and hardly any of the members, pissed off as they are that his "re-selection" was a stitch-up......
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explain....does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see
Night night from SPARTA
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Does the average voter think that deeply about the political situation? They might just see a party complaining about a "coup" and then refusing to agree to an election.
Great headlines for the Government tonight, Corbyn blocks Brexit and the Government ends austerity and increases spending on the NHS and police etc.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.
Well at one point I couldn't see how any Brexit would happen any other way except Jezza implementing it.
And remember I'd have voted for May's deal on MV2 and MV3 and though the ERG etc were dumb not to...
Well if isam was sincere when he said he'd consider voting Labour again in a post-Brexit world, perhaps Paul Embery's notion that an electoral nirvana awaits Labour by embracing a staunch leave position isn't as bonkers at it seems (though I still suspect not).
They’ll have passed a law banning people my age from voting by the time we live in a post Brexit world, if we ever do
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
There'll be an election after 31st. Corbyn though will have his Pyrrhic Victory insofar Johnson will have failed to take us out of the EU by that date.
Johnson won't have failed. Johnson will be on the side of the people while the smug politicians think they know better than what the public decided and are obstructing Brexit and obstructing an election.
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Why so? They are just as split as the Tories. If they stand on a soft Brexit ticket having blocked our departure on 31st October they will still leach their remainer votes to the Lib Dems and any self respecting Brexiter who for example doesn't want a Labour Brexit with its customs union etc will still vote Tory/Brexit Party
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Rory Stewart too. He seems well liked on his patch.
That is a very interesting example.
Given the huge Conservative vote, it would take a remarkable personal following to win it as an independent candidate (possibly aided by the LDs standing aside for him, as Swinson has hinted at, should the local party agree). On the other hand, it’s quite possible he gets the whip restored, given the current unrest in the party.
I use it only cos he is in the neighbouring Constituency to mine, and because it shares some similarities. The Tories in the rural North are an unideological , practical, down-to-earth bunch, rarely wealthy either. Their vote is traditional, but not automatic. It is also a long way from Westminster, indeed, a fair way from anywhere. If the LDs stand aside, I reckon he'd be a shoo in.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
There'll be an election after 31st. Corbyn though will have his Pyrrhic Victory insofar Johnson will have failed to take us out of the EU by that date.
Johnson won't have failed. Johnson will be on the side of the people while the smug politicians think they know better than what the public decided and are obstructing Brexit and obstructing an election.
How? The public wants a deal. It’s up to BoJo to get one now. Chop chop. Believe in Britain.
"I think the truth is the argument about no-deal is just a re-hash of the debate about whether we want to remain or leave in the first place."
"With Brexit there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole.
"We have two different electorates: we have a remain electorate and we have a leave electorate.
"Seventy five per cent of remain voters think that leaving without a deal is a bad idea and they oppose it. And around 75% of leave voters think that it is a good idea and they favour it."
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Link?
Wikipedia says otherwise, so I'd be interested to see the contrary.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Exactly. Arguably this is the first front rank strategic call Corbyn has got right since he was elected Labour leader. Which suggests it wasn't his call. But the fact he didn't obstruct it is very interesting and being woefully under analyised.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
There'll be an election after 31st. Corbyn though will have his Pyrrhic Victory insofar Johnson will have failed to take us out of the EU by that date.
Johnson won't have failed. Johnson will be on the side of the people while the smug politicians think they know better than what the public decided and are obstructing Brexit and obstructing an election.
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
I suspect Cummings's plan is to warp the shared psyche so that 'Delay Election' becomes in many people's minds completely synonymous with 'Cancel Brexit'. Indeed, Brendan was trying something similar earlier today.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
"I think the truth is the argument about no-deal is just a re-hash of the debate about whether we want to remain or leave in the first place."
"With Brexit there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole.
"We have two different electorates: we have a remain electorate and we have a leave electorate.
"Seventy five per cent of remain voters think that leaving without a deal is a bad idea and they oppose it. And around 75% of leave voters think that it is a good idea and they favour it."
Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.
So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.
But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.
It's super weird that you're going so heavy on a talking point that's most likely going to be disproven within a few weeks
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Why so? They are just as split as the Tories. If they stand on a soft Brexit ticket having blocked our departure on 31st October they will still leach their remainer votes to the Lib Dems and any self respecting Brexiter who for example doesn't want a Labour Brexit with its customs union etc will still vote Tory/Brexit Party
No, they'd have a get-out in that scenario. Of course their position is and will still be a logical nonsense, but their voters and potential voters are either dead against a no-deal crash-out, or at least sympathetic to the line that Labour could get a better deal. So saying 'we averted no-deal, now vote for us for a more sensible approach to the negotiations', with a nod to a referendum, would go a long way to winning back support from people who would like to vote Labour but were put off by Corbyn's shilly-shallying; Labour would have something concrete to show such voters, and would also have humiliated Boris and helped push his nutjob support back towards Farage.
Of course Corbyn might screw it up, since he's not very bright.
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Hammond is only going to have the Executive canvassing for him - and hardly any of the members, pissed off as they are that his "re-selection" was a stitch-up......
"I think the truth is the argument about no-deal is just a re-hash of the debate about whether we want to remain or leave in the first place."
"With Brexit there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole.
"We have two different electorates: we have a remain electorate and we have a leave electorate.
"Seventy five per cent of remain voters think that leaving without a deal is a bad idea and they oppose it. And around 75% of leave voters think that it is a good idea and they favour it."
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Exactly. Arguably this is the first front rank strategic call Corbyn has got right since he was elected Labour leader. Which suggests it wasn't his call. But the fact he didn't obstruct it is very interesting and being woefully under analyised.
To be fair on Jezza, left wing activists revel in the rule book, obscure protocols, plotting and organising. Bozo is fighting on Jezzas home turf.
"I think the truth is the argument about no-deal is just a re-hash of the debate about whether we want to remain or leave in the first place."
"With Brexit there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole.
"We have two different electorates: we have a remain electorate and we have a leave electorate.
"Seventy five per cent of remain voters think that leaving without a deal is a bad idea and they oppose it. And around 75% of leave voters think that it is a good idea and they favour it."
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Why so? They are just as split as the Tories. If they stand on a soft Brexit ticket having blocked our departure on 31st October they will still leach their remainer votes to the Lib Dems and any self respecting Brexiter who for example doesn't want a Labour Brexit with its customs union etc will still vote Tory/Brexit Party
No, they'd have a get-out in that scenario. Of course their position is and will still be a logical nonsense, but their voters and potential voters are either dead against a no-deal crash-out, or at least sympathetic to the line that Labour could get a better deal. So saying 'we averted no-deal, now vote for us for a more sensible approach to the negotiations', with a nod to a referendum, would go a long way to winning back support from people who would like to vote Labour but were put off by Corbyn's shilly-shallying; Labour would have something concrete to show such voters, and would also have humiliated Boris and helped push his nutjob support back towards Farage.
Of course Corbyn might screw it up, since he's not very bright.
The lesson of the past two days is maybe better to be not very bright than too clever by half?
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Why so? They are just as split as the Tories. If they stand on a soft Brexit ticket having blocked our departure on 31st October they will still leach their remainer votes to the Lib Dems and any self respecting Brexiter who for example doesn't want a Labour Brexit with its customs union etc will still vote Tory/Brexit Party
No, they'd have a get-out in that scenario. Of course their position is and will still be a logical nonsense, but their voters and potential voters are either dead against a no-deal crash-out, or at least sympathetic to the line that Labour could get a better deal. So saying 'we averted no-deal, now vote for us for a more sensible approach to the negotiations', with a nod to a referendum, would go a long way to winning back support from people who would like to vote Labour but were put off by Corbyn's shilly-shallying; Labour would have something concrete to show such voters, and would also have humiliated Boris and helped push his nutjob support back towards Farage.
Of course Corbyn might screw it up, since he's not very bright.
Exactly. Labour's all-things-to-all-people Brexit coalition didn't collapse via Leavers it collapsed just before the Euros via Remainers. Seeing off No Deal and Boris' arrogance before agreeing to the inevitable GE is the least worst way of reclaiming lost votes from the Greens/Lib Dems once the logic of FPTP kicks in during the campaign.
The idea that anyone will care whether Labour votes for an election today or in a few days' or weeks' time is for the birds. It's actually a very strong position for them: they have an incontrovertible argument that no election can take place until the imminent threat of a No Deal catastrophe has been averted, they have a superb political point that Boris can't be trusted, and they'll be in good shape if they can campaign on having saved the country from an ideological chlorinated-chicken Tory No Deal Brexit.
Exactly. Arguably this is the first front rank strategic call Corbyn has got right since he was elected Labour leader. Which suggests it wasn't his call. But the fact he didn't obstruct it is very interesting and being woefully under analyised.
Labour MPs are currently immensely powerful. Corbyn has little to no leverage over them. That is absolutely key in how this plays out.
If this was earlier, I missed it: Michael Fallon is stepping down as an MP at the next election.
All of a sudden it feels like quite a lot of incumbents won't be up for re-election. I wonder whether anyone has any stats for how many incumbents stood per election?
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact now reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
Without action chicken photos and crying grit will get a bit wearing. If there is no election what, in practice, is Johnson going to do?
From next week Jezza can just shrug. "I would be happy to vote for an election, but Parliament is prorogued at the orders of Johnson." I am happy to have a vote on it when we have reconvened and dealt with emergency matters.
BoZo is hoist by his own prorogation. His master startegist seems to be the General Burnside of British politics.
Indeed. He needs only to resist an election until Monday evening (I think?), after which he can safely say “bring it on”, safe in the knowledge there cannot be an election until November.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
So just to be clear - parliament will be prorogued immediately after a Queens Speech? It’s a view I suppose. Johnson can’t try the prorogation card because he’s already played it.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
So just to be clear - parliament will be prorogued immediately after a Queens Speech? It’s a view I suppose. Johnson can’t try the prorogation card because he’s already played it.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
The queen cannot call a general election. The PM cannot call a general election. Sorry, but I think you have this wrong.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
No she can't.
Yes she can, all within the royal prerogative powers the executive branch can use
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
There'll be an election after 31st. Corbyn though will have his Pyrrhic Victory insofar Johnson will have failed to take us out of the EU by that date.
Johnson won't have failed. Johnson will be on the side of the people while the smug politicians think they know better than what the public decided and are obstructing Brexit and obstructing an election.
How? The public wants a deal. It’s up to BoJo to get one now. Chop chop. Believe in Britain.
Parliament is sabotaging Britain's ability to get a deal though, didn't you hear?
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
No she can't.
She could refuse to a royal assent. But boy would the heavens open then
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
This must explain all the 'Jezza is frit', 'Jezza is chicken' stuff that Cummings has ordered the eurosceptic press to run with tonight. They think they've failed to secure the pre No deal GE and are now managing the narrative so that this fact now reflects badly on Jezza. But it feels thin - it's not as if everyone you speak to was hitherto gagging for a general election to be called.
Without action chicken photos and crying grit will get a bit wearing. If there is no election what, in practice, is Johnson going to do?
From next week Jezza can just shrug. "I would be happy to vote for an election, but Parliament is prorogued at the orders of Johnson." I am happy to have a vote on it when we have reconvened and dealt with emergency matters.
BoZo is hoist by his own prorogation. His master startegist seems to be the General Burnside of British politics.
Indeed. He needs only to resist an election until Monday evening (I think?), after which he can safely say “bring it on”, safe in the knowledge there cannot be an election until November.
Can Boris get HM to unprorogue? (I've rather forgotten why Boris prorogued in the first place.)
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
The queen cannot call a general election. The PM cannot call a general election. Sorry, but I think you have this wrong.
The Queen can prorogue Parliament and not recall it until a general election is approved
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
Rory Stewart too. He seems well liked on his patch.
That is a very interesting example.
Given the huge Conservative vote, it would take a remarkable personal following to win it as an independent candidate (possibly aided by the LDs standing aside for him, as Swinson has hinted at, should the local party agree). On the other hand, it’s quite possible he gets the whip restored, given the current unrest in the party.
I use it only cos he is in the neighbouring Constituency to mine, and because it shares some similarities. The Tories in the rural North are an unideological , practical, down-to-earth bunch, rarely wealthy either. Their vote is traditional, but not automatic. It is also a long way from Westminster, indeed, a fair way from anywhere. If the LDs stand aside, I reckon he'd be a shoo in.
I didn’t say he can’t win, or even that it would be highly unlikely - just that it would be fairly remarkable if he did.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
No she can't.
Yes she can, all within the royal prerogative powers the executive branch can use
No she can't. She has no prerogative power to require a general election and dissolution.
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
No she can't.
She could refuse to a royal assent. But boy would the heavens open then
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
And January 2021, and...
Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?
Ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill and dissolve Parliament using the royal prerogative for a general election mid October to let the voters decide on Brexit before October 31st.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
Citation? News to me.
'6 Supplementary provisions (1) This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7) If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
The Queen can refuse to assent to the extension Bill and prorogue Parliament past October 31st at the PM's request while requiring a general election and dissolution before she summons Parliament again
The queen cannot call a general election. The PM cannot call a general election. Sorry, but I think you have this wrong.
The Queen can prorogue Parliament and not recall it until a general election has been held
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Round my way, we treat our friends a little better than that.
Jesus, they are adults who made a conscious decision to poke the party in the eye. What did they expect?
The Labour strategy is bang on point.
Nobody in their right mind would give Boris an election at the time of his own choosing.
I would think some of the others will pull off independent victories too.
BoZo is hoist by his own prorogation. His master startegist seems to be the General Burnside of British politics.
Traitor, diehard remainer, treacherous. All pretty amiable in your book. Fine by me.
Given the huge Conservative vote, it would take a remarkable personal following to win it as an independent candidate (possibly aided by the LDs standing aside for him, as Swinson has hinted at, should the local party agree).
On the other hand, it’s quite possible he gets the whip restored, given the current unrest in the party.
The FTPA explicitly allows the Queen still to dissolve Parliament and call a general election at her whim under its Supplementary Provisions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IfoUM6a4bA
https://twitter.com/irishtimesbiz/status/1169289057089835008?s=21
Looking mightily like the latter tonight. Who would have thought it.
Amendment moved - took 90 seconds - nobody else spoke - straight to a Division on the amendment (no Closure Motion).
If the LDs stand aside, I reckon he'd be a shoo in.
This is what Cummings meant when he said there wasn’t any way to block no deal...
Polling expert
"I think the truth is the argument about no-deal is just a re-hash of the debate about whether we want to remain or leave in the first place."
"With Brexit there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole.
"We have two different electorates: we have a remain electorate and we have a leave electorate.
"Seventy five per cent of remain voters think that leaving without a deal is a bad idea and they oppose it. And around 75% of leave voters think that it is a good idea and they favour it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734
Wikipedia says otherwise, so I'd be interested to see the contrary.
Supplementary provisions
(1)
This Act does not affect Her Majesty’s power to prorogue Parliament.'
'(7)
If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister'
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/enacted
And thanks for the reminder about Milne. I'm over my earlier dalliance with considering voting Labour.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/
Of course Corbyn might screw it up, since he's not very bright.
He had previously left the House and someone else moved his previous amendment for him.
Michael Fallon is stepping down as an MP at the next election.
All of a sudden it feels like quite a lot of incumbents won't be up for re-election. I wonder whether anyone has any stats for how many incumbents stood per election?
So how could Boris be sure Corbyn would not renege?
https://twitter.com/odysseanproject/status/1169382274774777857?s=21