As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
Indeed. I'm amazed Labour have been so stupid as to fall into Boris's trap, which basically had a glowing neon sign with an arrow pointing at it saying in block capitals "TRAP HERE".
Meaningless you may say, but the polls are the main reason Boris felt emboldened to go down this path, and why Labour refused an election they have demanded for so long. So they definitely have impact.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
Re. Thread Header - It's kind of hard for Boris to get elected when the Opposition is running for the hills in absolute terror at the first sign of an election.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
Those are the headlines in the tory press and right wing websites. There are opposite headlines out there talking about Boris being a loser and his a govt divided and a shambles.
As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
Richard Nabavi was one of the first to point out the sheer political stupidity of the 31st October deadline. Although that was more in the context of the clock running out whilst a new deal is being negotiated, rather than BoJo's self-inflicted wounds. If Boris has been just a little bit flexible with the date of exit, even something like "early 2020" would have done, he could have avoided this mess.
Being inflexible was his USP and his edge against Hunt in the leadership campaign. As we all predicted at the time, he is prisoner to the means he used to get the job. In truth dating back to 2016.
So does this wheeze for defeating the Tory filibuster secretly come from Dominic Cummings, so that the Benn bill passes, and the opposition parties will agree an election?
Without an election before 31st October Johnson’s entire strategy is in shreds. Tonight he is entirely dependent on the stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn. So the chances are he’ll be fine.
Jezza has had a good week. He may be a fairly dim anti-semite, but unlike Boris he seems to be getting good advice.
Richard Nabavi was one of the first to point out the sheer political stupidity of the 31st October deadline. Although that was more in the context of the clock running out whilst a new deal is being negotiated, rather than BoJo's self-inflicted wounds. If Boris has been just a little bit flexible with the date of exit, even something like "early 2020" would have done, he could have avoided this mess.
BXP soared in the polls when the extension occurred, he wanted to avoid that possibility. Even though it immediately meant his own policy of negotiation and deal, requiring legislation, was undercut by not having time.
Scotland has cathedrals?? How? Are they made out of piled turf, or something?
I need to Google this. Weird!
Now, now. Try St Magnus (Kirkwall).
I would heartily recommend the guided tour of the upper parts of St Magnus. As long as you are ok with steep spiral staircases. Good grief, I believe that is the first non-political sentence I have written all day. Bed now. More practical politics tomorrow.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It will be Labour vote down election after surrendering to the EU. It's an easy refrain for the Tories to exploit and one that will resonate with a public that's increasingly sick of parliament's messing about with Brexit.
So, if Corbyn is content for Labour to vote for a GE once the bill outlawing no deal has received Royal Assent, he needs to whip together 136 Labour MPs to get a GE over the line by the 2/3rds route, or less if the SNP etc share his view. That seems do-able.
If Corbyn goes for an election then the PLP will fall into line behind him, despite the misgivings of the centre-Left faction who want to force Johnson to apply for the extension first.
My best guess remains that Corbyn wants to get the dissolution sorted out before we get to prorogation, so that party conference season is cancelled and the heavily pro-EU majority within Labour can't argue the toss with him over Remain. The Labour leadership has clearly decided that constructive ambiguity (unicorn renegotiation, then second referendum in which it might back either its own Deal or Remain, depending what it feels like at the time) is the best way to try to hold together as much of the Labour vote as possible.
If a simple majority bill for an election on 15 Oct passes the Commons [perhaps with Tory+SNP support] are the Lords capable of voting on that without the filibuster on Benn failing?
As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
Good night all.
It's sad for them but being an MP is not a job for life. Too many still treat parliament like a cosy gentleman's club.
In the private sector it happens all the time that a new CEO comes in and some of the existing managers move on.
Ultimately, the voters need to know they will get what they vote for:
If they give Boris a majority, he can deliver on no deal. Ditto with Corbyn and his agenda.
Richard Nabavi was one of the first to point out the sheer political stupidity of the 31st October deadline. Although that was more in the context of the clock running out whilst a new deal is being negotiated, rather than BoJo's self-inflicted wounds. If Boris has been just a little bit flexible with the date of exit, even something like "early 2020" would have done, he could have avoided this mess.
BXP soared in the polls when the extension occurred, he wanted to avoid that possibility. Even though it immediately meant his own policy of negotiation and deal, requiring legislation, was undercut by not having time.
Defeat your enemy by defeating yourself. "Genius."
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leave voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris.
Cummings has wargamed this as vital if Labour marginal seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales are to go blue
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
To be fair the usual papers (Tory press or Brexit supporting media) run negative stories about Corbyn, McDonnell and Labour on a daily basis. So, nothing new from that angle. Boris has been given a free ride by the press and I cannot see why he will suddenly experience a removal of that. I cannot stand BJ and have never understood his appeal. Maybe people will realise he is obnoxious and not to be trusted? But I won't hold my breath!
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
True. I don't see how it's possible, even in the unlikely transition scenario.
The idea that Labour will be damaged in an election campaign by in the past voting against an election having just voted for an election seems to me to faintly absurd.
As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
Good night all.
It's sad for them but being an MP is not a job for life. Too many still treat parliament like a cosy gentleman's club.
In the private sector it happens all the time that a new CEO comes in and some of the existing managers move on.
Ultimately, the voters need to know they will get what they vote for:
If they give Boris a majority, he can deliver on no deal. Ditto with Corbyn and his agenda.
Tory MPs were all elected on a manifest to "deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union", not a No Deal crash.
Corbyn/Milne at least do want an election I think, they just want the Benn bill to be watertight before granting it.
But the Starmer/others strategy isn't about preventing a "No Deal" Brexit. It's entirely about attempting to humiliate Johnson by making him sign Corbyn's surrender letter in order to gain narrow political advantage before a GE begins. It's too clever by half !
Johnson is becoming the totem for leave, Farage has barely been on the airwaves. He's drowned out right now and I expect polls to show further collapse into the Tories of the leave vote.
I agree in terms of the Leave voters. It is difficult to see what more Johnson could do to win over Brexit Party voters. You also wonder whether there are people claiming in opinion polls to be willing to vote for the BXP just to keep the pressure up on the Conservatives, while intending to vote Conservative all along.
However, the question of the overall Tory share also depends on how much leakage there will be of Remainer Tories (still 15% of the Remain vote in the last YouGov) in the direction of the LDs or DKs, and whether any more Labour Leavers now give up on Corbyn (most have so far gone to the BXP rather than the Cons).
It would be decent of YouGov to conduct another poll. The monthly IPSOS Mori poll is also well overdue. The end July one was published on 1st August.
Great headlines for the Government tonight, Corbyn blocks Brexit and the Government ends austerity and increases spending on the NHS and police etc.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
Richard Nabavi was one of the first to point out the sheer political stupidity of the 31st October deadline. Although that was more in the context of the clock running out whilst a new deal is being negotiated, rather than BoJo's self-inflicted wounds. If Boris has been just a little bit flexible with the date of exit, even something like "early 2020" would have done, he could have avoided this mess.
BXP soared in the polls when the extension occurred, he wanted to avoid that possibility. Even though it immediately meant his own policy of negotiation and deal, requiring legislation, was undercut by not having time.
We should also remember Boris Johnson's flexible relationship with the truth. If he wins an election on October 15th (and has therefore got the voters out of the way for the next four-and-a-half years) then he can always emerge from the European Council meeting, declare that significant progress has been made, and that he has therefore agreed to a short, technical extension to A50 whilst the details are thrashed out.
Campaigning on a platform of leaving on October 31st doesn't, astonishingly, mean it has to be delivered if the Tories win. So long as he manages to get out at some point not too long thereafter, then the minutiae of when it was achieved would've been long forgotten by May 2024.
Unelected PM Boris Johnson, oh for goodness sake, what was Gordon Brown, Theresa May in 2016?
First.
No Prime Minister is elected. To use that phraseology, particularly in the headline, is a sign of political malevolence. It immediately stops reading of the following article because it is just going to be a political screed rather than an analysis.
Without an election before 31st October Johnson’s entire strategy is in shreds. Tonight he is entirely dependent on the stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn. So the chances are he’ll be fine.
The scary thing is that Labour have played this exactly right so far. Which suggests a ludicrous move can only be just around the corner!
Richard Nabavi was one of the first to point out the sheer political stupidity of the 31st October deadline. Although that was more in the context of the clock running out whilst a new deal is being negotiated, rather than BoJo's self-inflicted wounds. If Boris has been just a little bit flexible with the date of exit, even something like "early 2020" would have done, he could have avoided this mess.
BXP soared in the polls when the extension occurred, he wanted to avoid that possibility. Even though it immediately meant his own policy of negotiation and deal, requiring legislation, was undercut by not having time.
Defeat your enemy by defeating yourself. "Genius."
"Use your enemy's strength against him" -- Sun Tzu "Use our own weakness against ourselves" -- Dominic Cummings
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit done
As joyful as those happy to see the back of Gauke and Clarke and the rest are, I hope they are aware they are displaying the exact same sentiments as Corbynistas. Which is fine, be a Borista to their Corbynista, but it is eerily similar in style.
Good night all.
It's sad for them but being an MP is not a job for life. Too many still treat parliament like a cosy gentleman's club.
In the private sector it happens all the time that a new CEO comes in and some of the existing managers move on.
Ultimately, the voters need to know they will get what they vote for:
If they give Boris a majority, he can deliver on no deal. Ditto with Corbyn and his agenda.
Tory MPs were all elected on a manifest to "deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union", not a No Deal crash.
Boris has just been elected by the MPs and members with a clear mandate to change the previous policy.
By partner is a Kiwi and is shocked and how much UK MPs are allowed to get away with not following the whip. It wouldn't happen in Aus and NZ (although the Australians tend to knife their leaders instead)
Without an election before 31st October Johnson’s entire strategy is in shreds. Tonight he is entirely dependent on the stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn. So the chances are he’ll be fine.
Jezza has had a good week. He may be a fairly dim anti-semite, but unlike Boris he seems to be getting good advice.
He is getting conflicting advice. On the one hand, you have the politically savvy and generally smart Starmer and McDonnell saying don’t give Johnson what he wants let him fail to do or die by 31st October, on the other you’ve got the Milne and the Morning Star Brexiteers saying Labour cannot lose so let’s fight an election now. At the moment he’s listening to Milne.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
I don't think HYFUD has the remotest fucking clue of how tribal and anti-southern posh Northern voters are... I'm a City (Man) City fan...I'm a Greenpeace, lefty, liberal (Jewish lineage), climate change activist...my team is now run by an Autocratic Oil, Arab Oligarch...and who do I still support? Many City of fucking course....
The idea that Labour will be damaged in an election campaign by in the past voting against an election having just voted for an election seems to me to faintly absurd.
+1 too much short-term thinking. The opposition should only agree to an election on their terms not BJ's. I would insist on leader debates and anything else they want to include in the campaign or sort out before dissolution.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit done
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
We all know the correct technical solution to the border. There have been papers published, including by the European Commission, on the solution.
The issue is not "is there a technical solution which removes the need for a hard border", it is "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution"?
There is also the - very reasonable - fear that the EU or Ireland will drag their feet once we're in the backstop, and that's why binding international arbitration was added to the WA backstop text.
I'm not being obtuse at all.
If there is a correct technical solution to the border then lets drop the vile backstop, enter a transition [during which the backstop doesn't apply anyway], avoid the risk of no deal and work on the solution.
I don't care if the EU or Ireland don't drag their feet once in the backstop. I object to being in the backstop full stop. And if there is an [imperfect] solution that can be done immediately in the event of no deal, it should be a reasonable fallback at the end of a transition.
The answer to "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution" should not be the backstop IMO it should be "unless an agreement otherwise is reached at the time, then the same as would occur in a no deal scenario".
The point is there is general agreement on the technical solution
What there is not general agreement on is what happens between the end of the transition (due for end 2020) and its implementation.
Without an election before 31st October Johnson’s entire strategy is in shreds. Tonight he is entirely dependent on the stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn. So the chances are he’ll be fine.
Jezza has had a good week. He may be a fairly dim anti-semite, but unlike Boris he seems to be getting good advice.
He is getting conflicting advice. On the one hand, you have the politically savvy and generally smart Starmer and McDonnell saying don’t give Johnson what he wants let him fail to do or die by 31st October, on the other you’ve got the Milne and the Morning Star Brexiteers saying Labour cannot lose so let’s fight an election now. At the moment he’s listening to Milne.
Eh? Milne is the one who wants a chaotic No Deal Tory result so that Jezza can pick up the pieces.
Labour will try to explain turning down an election but it will be difficult. For the last two years, we've heard little else from Jezza. And he has to explain it in a sentence. Best of luck with that one.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Haha....I don't think you quite realise just how repellant Boris Johnson is when we are faced with his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....
We all know the correct technical solution to the border. There have been papers published, including by the European Commission, on the solution.
The issue is not "is there a technical solution which removes the need for a hard border", it is "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution"?
There is also the - very reasonable - fear that the EU or Ireland will drag their feet once we're in the backstop, and that's why binding international arbitration was added to the WA backstop text.
I'm not being obtuse at all.
If there is a correct technical solution to the border then lets drop the vile backstop, enter a transition [during which the backstop doesn't apply anyway], avoid the risk of no deal and work on the solution.
I don't care if the EU or Ireland don't drag their feet once in the backstop. I object to being in the backstop full stop. And if there is an [imperfect] solution that can be done immediately in the event of no deal, it should be a reasonable fallback at the end of a transition.
The answer to "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution" should not be the backstop IMO it should be "unless an agreement otherwise is reached at the time, then the same as would occur in a no deal scenario".
The point is there is general agreement on the technical solution
What there is not general agreement on is what happens between the end of the transition (due for end 2020) and its implementation.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit done
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.
WRONG, 6% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory and only 1% of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour with YouGov this week.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
After a visit to Glasgow Cathedral, according my History teacher one of my classmates wrote down that Glasgow Cathedral was famous for its flying buttocks.
Wells is one of my favourite Cathedrals, Gloucester is another. St Mark's in Venice has the most extraordinary tiled mosaics. Paddy's Wigwam is wonderful on a sunny day, when the light changes as the sun moves round.
I can't think there is a lot happened the last 48 hrs that wasn't as expected. Maybe the numbers were a bit higher but I'm not sure about that - the lower numbers seemed to be wishful thinking.
But Boris was a long way off how he performed just after taking office today, but not as bad as his detractors wish. The HofL stuff is where it is at at the moment - that seems to be just empty optimism to me.
It is hard to disagree with Corbyn's logic on the GE vote.
The Kinnock amendment is interesting and certainly a very minor win for Boris.
Less obviously not getting the GE might be another minor win for Boris.
Of course he has a measure of control of the house when the proprogation timetable sticks in - he only has to allow stuff he wants.
Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to Boris
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit done
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.
WRONG, 6% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory and only 1% of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
How come we didn’t get several thread headers on your agonised tussle with your conscience?
I wrote that I dislike her and why. I don't think I was especially prominent enough to do a thread on that. It was a personal decision and I just did it.
And there was no agonised tussle. It was an easy decision.
Let's go for that vote and have pics of Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson on every billboard.....
Scope for making a series of Laurel & Hardy style images replete with "another fine mess" taglines. That said, I think it's usually a bad idea to put your opponent's faces on your literature.
Comments
Good night all.
https://twitter.com/alex_negueruela/status/1169265030287810561?s=21
Good grief, I believe that is the first non-political sentence I have written all day.
Bed now. More practical politics tomorrow.
My best guess remains that Corbyn wants to get the dissolution sorted out before we get to prorogation, so that party conference season is cancelled and the heavily pro-EU majority within Labour can't argue the toss with him over Remain. The Labour leadership has clearly decided that constructive ambiguity (unicorn renegotiation, then second referendum in which it might back either its own Deal or Remain, depending what it feels like at the time) is the best way to try to hold together as much of the Labour vote as possible.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
In the private sector it happens all the time that a new CEO comes in and some of the existing managers move on.
Ultimately, the voters need to know they will get what they vote for:
If they give Boris a majority, he can deliver on no deal. Ditto with Corbyn and his agenda.
https://images.app.goo.gl/g2uzdjS1ju5jwAsn7
Cummings has wargamed this as vital if Labour marginal seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales are to go blue
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1169275131916640257?s=21
However, the question of the overall Tory share also depends on how much leakage there will be of Remainer Tories (still 15% of the Remain vote in the last YouGov) in the direction of the LDs or DKs, and whether any more Labour Leavers now give up on Corbyn (most have so far gone to the BXP rather than the Cons).
It would be decent of YouGov to conduct another poll. The monthly IPSOS Mori poll is also well overdue. The end July one was published on 1st August.
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
Campaigning on a platform of leaving on October 31st doesn't, astonishingly, mean it has to be delivered if the Tories win. So long as he manages to get out at some point not too long thereafter, then the minutiae of when it was achieved would've been long forgotten by May 2024.
"Use our own weakness against ourselves" -- Dominic Cummings
Interesting times
Wasn’t Parliament in recess during his first month? 😁
By partner is a Kiwi and is shocked and how much UK MPs are allowed to get away with not following the whip. It wouldn't happen in Aus and NZ (although the Australians tend to knife their leaders instead)
I'm a City (Man) City fan...I'm a Greenpeace, lefty, liberal (Jewish lineage), climate change activist...my team is now run by an Autocratic Oil, Arab Oligarch...and who do I still support? Many City of fucking course....
too much short-term thinking. The opposition should only agree to an election on their terms not BJ's. I would insist on leader debates and anything else they want to include in the campaign or sort out before dissolution.
That Blair?
Having said that, Johnson's task isn't huge. He doesn't need a landslide. He just needs a net gain of 20 or more seats.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
https://twitter.com/RichardNewby3
The government peers are relatively thin on the ground. I wonder how well their stamina will hold up overnight.
What there is not general agreement on is what happens between the end of the transition (due for end 2020) and its implementation.
The street fighter turned hider.
Doesn't he want an election AFTER 31st?
Sadly Labour are in blind terror at the prospect.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Wells is one of my favourite Cathedrals, Gloucester is another. St Mark's in Venice has the most extraordinary tiled mosaics. Paddy's Wigwam is wonderful on a sunny day, when the light changes as the sun moves round.
But Boris was a long way off how he performed just after taking office today, but not as bad as his detractors wish. The HofL stuff is where it is at at the moment - that seems to be just empty optimism to me.
It is hard to disagree with Corbyn's logic on the GE vote.
The Kinnock amendment is interesting and certainly a very minor win for Boris.
Less obviously not getting the GE might be another minor win for Boris.
Of course he has a measure of control of the house when the proprogation timetable sticks in - he only has to allow stuff he wants.
Last time we had a GE on 15 Oct Labour won by 3.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169364011269464065?s=21
And there was no agonised tussle. It was an easy decision.
LOL
Gone before long.
That said, I think it's usually a bad idea to put your opponent's faces on your literature.
He’s going to allow an election after he’s taken the hit - what a clown.