The Sunday Times report today isn't the "worst case scenario". It is its base case scenario. The things it most expects to happen. And just because they are planning for something, doesn't mean the consequences can be averted. Apart from anything else, as the Sunday Times documents point out, a great deal of the problems are likely to be because things are likely to be out of the Government's control and dependent on the actions of others - businesses, individuals, other countries etc etc.
Correct Yellowhammer is the "most likely" scenario. The worst case scenario is dealt with by Operation Black Swan.
The government has completely lost the plot that they are willingly heading towards such events.
Voting to trigger A50 then not follow through by voting through ANY WA (I don't care if it was May, Corbyn or anyone elses) was the equivalent of leaping out a plane (A50), removing your parachute on the basis it was told to you by others heading down the dive that it was an awful idea on the basis that you'll be able to either land in a giant net (Successful no deal) or someone else with a better parachute will be able to grab you and that you'll be able to complete the dive as a sort of tandem. Now you've heard the net may or may not be there, and hitting it is tricky and though the experienced diver with the definitely working parachute will definitely see you ok, you've ditched your own parachute on the basis you were either a) Intending to go for the net all along or b) You've heard nasty things about your parachute and don't like the colour.
Right now we've got emoved the parachute, hopefully we will either hit the net or someone else can grab us. But there is a big row about who the the grabber might be !
The Sunday Times report today isn't the "worst case scenario". It is its base case scenario. The things it most expects to happen. And just because they are planning for something, doesn't mean the consequences can be averted. Apart from anything else, as the Sunday Times documents point out, a great deal of the problems are likely to be because things are likely to be out of the Government's control and dependent on the actions of others - businesses, individuals, other countries etc etc.
Correct Yellowhammer is the "most likely" scenario. The worst case scenario is dealt with by Operation Black Swan.
The government has completely lost the plot that they are willingly heading towards such events.
It's going to be so nice when we find we're all still alive with all extremities intact on November 1. It will probably be rainy. Trains will probably be late. Wonderful life will continue.
And hopefully most of May's deal will then be implemented very quickly on a unilateral basis. For example a unilateral bill granting all the agreed rights to EU citizens currently resident here really should be before Parliament in September. The government can confirm that the UK does pay its debts. etc etc. It will still be sub optimal and messy but very far from calamitous.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
Re Paris - This from today's Observer is going too far: A customer fatally shot a waiter at a pizzeria on the outskirts of Paris, apparently enraged at being made to wait for a sandwich, according to witnesses.
The waiter’s colleagues called police after he was shot in the shoulder with a handgun in the Noisy-le-Grand suburb, 15km east of Paris’s city centre on Friday night.
Attempts to revive the 28-year-old failed and he died at the scene.
The gunman, who a witness said lost his temper “as his sandwich wasn’t prepared quickly enough”, fled the scene.
Look for that latest Trip Advisor report - "This place advertises that it sells fast food. It does not."
It's going to be so nice when we find we're all still alive with all extremities intact on November 1. It will probably be rainy. Trains will probably be late. Wonderful life will continue.
And hopefully most of May's deal will then be implemented very quickly on a unilateral basis. For example a unilateral bill granting all the agreed rights to EU citizens currently resident here really should be before Parliament in September. The government can confirm that the UK does pay its debts. etc etc. It will still be sub optimal and messy but very far from calamitous.
The government is not going to put any bills relating to the EU before Parliament. Its belief in Parliamentary sovereignty is homeopathic.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share power to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border with the Republic will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution, ideally a technical solution for the border, needs to be found
If we have a GE, which looks all too likely, is Bercow really going to stand again? He's already been Speaker for substantially longer than he promised. If he did stand again I suggest that the Tories should stand against him and take it seriously. The man is a part of the problem rather than part of the solution. It's long past time that he went.
Martin was also an appalling Speaker but I don't think that the case for the HoC regulating itself by one of its members has been rendered untenable. They just need to choose more carefully.
Recent history is certainly encouraging in the members choosing more carefully stakes.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Entertaining Sunday column as usual. I wouldn't mind the solution (though I don't think he could remain Speaker as well), but doubt if it would get anywhere near takeoff. And giving him authortity to decide A50 issues during the election is difficult - he won't at that point have any official office (since all MPs including the Speaker lose office when an election is called), so technically it'd be no more valid than giving authority to, say, Edmund in Tokyo (which I'd also be pleased to vote for). But at this stage I suppose nothing is impossible.
The most likely cause of "Brexit deaths" will be some headcase Remainer losing it after he has failed in his plans to thwart the outcome of the Referendum.
Pontius Pilot speaks...
Phew. For a moment there I thought you were likening me to Pontius Pilate.
Unlike your good self, Pointless Pilot. Steering us all towards those vapid Remain retweets that will change nothing......
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share power to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border with the Republic will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution, ideally a technical solution for the border, needs to be found
Which side insisted on the whole Stormont double lock thingamajig ?
Daniel Kawczynski fashing away on R4 this morning.
'Those MPs who try to continue to thwart what the British people voted for ought to be careful (pregnant pause) in whether or not they can retain their seats.'
I think he's got IDS beat for boneheaded malevolence, no mean feat.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
The Sunday Times report today isn't the "worst case scenario". It is its base case scenario. The things it most expects to happen. And just because they are planning for something, doesn't mean the consequences can be averted. Apart from anything else, as the Sunday Times documents point out, a great deal of the problems are likely to be because things are likely to be out of the Government's control and dependent on the actions of others - businesses, individuals, other countries etc etc.
Correct Yellowhammer is the "most likely" scenario. The worst case scenario is dealt with by Operation Black Swan.
The government has completely lost the plot that they are willingly heading towards such events.
Have we the outline of Operation Black Swan?
I don't believe so.
Of course there is another point about this. A Govt can't plan to avert serious disruption under multiple scenarios. If their base scenario is wrong then there will be consequences especially if too optimistic. Given the main.business of the site - consider a General Election, 2017 a great example. Get the base scenario wrong and you will either end up losing seats you could have held, or missing out on seats that could have been won. Plan for Black Swan and consequences of Yellowhammer scenario are worse. If yellowhammer is wrong then Black Swan is calamitous. Etc
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share power to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border with the Republic will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution, ideally a technical solution for the border, needs to be found
Which side insisted on the whole Stormont double lock thingamajig ?
It's going to be so nice when we find we're all still alive with all extremities intact on November 1. It will probably be rainy. Trains will probably be late. Wonderful life will continue.
And hopefully most of May's deal will then be implemented very quickly on a unilateral basis. For example a unilateral bill granting all the agreed rights to EU citizens currently resident here really should be before Parliament in September. The government can confirm that the UK does pay its debts. etc etc. It will still be sub optimal and messy but very far from calamitous.
The fireworks will be going off in Hartlepool. After 48 years they'll get their sovereignty back. These are the things rhat dreams are made of
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
I don't know what kind of a supposed Brit you think you are but what a staggeringly ignorant comment. And the bar can be pretty low on PB at times.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
Your faith in democracy seems somewhat inconsistent, however..
"Orange Order chief 'will accept united Ireland' if majority votes for it"
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
You're insane. If NI votes to leave then they're gone. Antrim and Down be damned the British Parliament will then no more cling to them than they did anyone in Hong Kong who objected.
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
Unionist opinion is not of one mind, as many polls show. I used to hear of Trotskyists with your apparent mindset, though I never actually met one - apparently they said things like "The worse the better, we need a crisis to raise class consciousness". I thought it was dangerous nonsense then and still do. Compared with you, Jeremy Corbyn is a snowflake centrist.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
But as a diehard remainer yourself this is a pretty damning piece of self criticism.
" I think MPs who respect the referendum result but are implacably opposed to both a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Premiership "
Is it possible to respect the referendum result and oppose a No Deal Brexit? This can only apply to MPs who either weren't paying attention during the referendum campaign or don't understand Article 50. They also can't possibly understand the EU's position on negotiating trade deals. Actually that goes for 100% of the media as well.
A permanent relationship or ‘deal’ was NEVER going to be agreed before the UK left the EU. The Article 50 negotiations are (or were) intended to develop (a) the terms of withdrawal and (b) an associated political declaration which would provide a detailed framework of a future deal. David Davis negotiated a sensible transition period to allow time for this ‘’deal’ to be agreed. May then stuck her oar in and (deliberately - I believe) created the mess which followed.
The legal position now is that no terms of withdrawal have been agreed and so the UK leaves the EU by default 2 years after the date of Article 50 notification (since extended to Oct 31st). This what MPs voted for. Respecting the referendum result means abiding by the Article 50 process.
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
Unionist opinion is not of one mind, as many polls show. I used to hear of Trotskyists with your apparent mindset, though I never actually met one - apparently they said things like "The worse the better, we need a crisis to raise class consciousness". I thought it was dangerous nonsense then and still do. Compared with you, Jeremy Corbyn is a snowflake centrist.
Haha yes absolutely. Creative destruction. Truly, Brexit has sent us mad.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
But as a diehard remainer yourself this is a pretty damning piece of self criticism.
" I think MPs who respect the referendum result but are implacably opposed to both a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Premiership "
Is it possible to respect the referendum result and oppose a No Deal Brexit? This can only apply to MPs who either weren't paying attention during the referendum campaign or don't understand Article 50. They also can't possibly understand the EU's position on negotiating trade deals. Actually that goes for 100% of the media as well.
A permanent relationship or ‘deal’ was NEVER going to be agreed before the UK left the EU. The Article 50 negotiations are (or were) intended to develop (a) the terms of withdrawal and (b) an associated political declaration which would provide a detailed framework of a future deal. David Davis negotiated a sensible transition period to allow time for this ‘’deal’ to be agreed. May then stuck her oar in and (deliberately - I believe) created the mess which followed.
The legal position now is that no terms of withdrawal have been agreed and so the UK leaves the EU by default 2 years after the date of Article 50 notification (since extended to Oct 31st). This what MPs voted for. Respecting the referendum result means abiding by the Article 50 process.
I think this is true. A consequence of the clash between representative and direct democracy. I disagree with the May creating a mess though. As we might well find the three preconditions for an agreement will remain after October 31 and May simply recognised that.
Coming back to @AlastairMeeks' no mandate for no deal. Irrelevant. No deal is the way the UK will leave the EU in the absence of any other agreement.
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
I don't know what kind of a supposed Brit you think you are but what a staggeringly ignorant comment. And the bar can be pretty low on PB at times.
What do you mean supposed Brit? I'm not a supposed Brit I am English through and through. I am a Brit by virtue of being English.
What I wrote is true. @DavidL has rightly recognised the dangers of an extension without an agreed purpose but a transition without one will be just as problematic.
If we in bad faith enter a transition agreeing to a backstop but expecting it not to be enforced then why would the EU in good faith find an alternative?
An alternative needs to be found if the backstop isn't agreed because of history but it will only be agreed if the backstop is rejected.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
But as a diehard remainer yourself this is a pretty damning piece of self criticism.
Except I have accepted the referendum result
But you vehemently disagree with it and the way it is being implemented.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
You're insane. If NI votes to leave then they're gone. Antrim and Down be damned the British Parliament will then no more cling to them than they did anyone in Hong Kong who objected.
Wrong, Boris as PM is close to the DUP and will back the Protestant majority Counties.
The Republic of Ireland is also not a superpower like China
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
Unionist opinion is not of one mind, as many polls show. I used to hear of Trotskyists with your apparent mindset, though I never actually met one - apparently they said things like "The worse the better, we need a crisis to raise class consciousness". I thought it was dangerous nonsense then and still do. Compared with you, Jeremy Corbyn is a snowflake centrist.
Haha yes absolutely. Creative destruction. Truly, Brexit has sent us mad.
This is just like Trump dismissing things he doesn't like from his own government's departments.
Yep.
I am expecting: "there are no queues of lorries at Dover", the TV news is fake, the supermarkets all have fresh food, look here is a cucumber etc etc in November.
It's going to be so nice when we find we're all still alive with all extremities intact on November 1. It will probably be rainy. Trains will probably be late. Wonderful life will continue.
And hopefully most of May's deal will then be implemented very quickly on a unilateral basis. For example a unilateral bill granting all the agreed rights to EU citizens currently resident here really should be before Parliament in September. The government can confirm that the UK does pay its debts. etc etc. It will still be sub optimal and messy but very far from calamitous.
My benchmark for success is more ambitious than avoiding self imposed calamity. Mileages vary. But that's Brexit for you
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
Your faith in democracy seems somewhat inconsistent, however..
"Orange Order chief 'will accept united Ireland' if majority votes for it"
He also opposes a border poll because of Brexit but has family from the Republic with both his father and grandfather born in Donegal so maybe not a typical Unionist
Yes absolutely. Because of the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement.
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
I don't know what kind of a supposed Brit you think you are but what a staggeringly ignorant comment. And the bar can be pretty low on PB at times.
What do you mean supposed Brit? I'm not a supposed Brit I am English through and through. I am a Brit by virtue of being English.
What I wrote is true. @DavidL has rightly recognised the dangers of an extension without an agreed purpose but a transition without one will be just as problematic.
If we in bad faith enter a transition agreeing to a backstop but expecting it not to be enforced then why would the EU in good faith find an alternative?
An alternative needs to be found if the backstop isn't agreed because of history but it will only be agreed if the backstop is rejected.
As @NickPalmer has rightly pointed out, your approach is Trotskyist. And no Brit would want to visit such destruction on their own country.
I don't believe you are British. Good choice of British-sounding posting name though.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
Your faith in democracy seems somewhat inconsistent, however..
"Orange Order chief 'will accept united Ireland' if majority votes for it"
He also opposes a border poll because of Brexit but has family from the Republic with both his father and grandfather born in Donegal so maybe not a typical Unionist
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
NI voted to Remain, remember?
Antrim voted Leave
And? Antrim is just one county. Are you proposing re-partition? Will the Nationalist parts of Antrim (eg. The Glens) be allowed to opt out?
If nationalists in Scotland and Catholic parts of Northern Ireland can threaten to leave the UK because of a referendum result so can Protestant parts of Northern Ireland refuse to become parts of the Republic of Ireland because of a referendum result
This is just like Trump dismissing things he doesn't like from his own government's departments.
Yep.
I am expecting: "there are no queues of lorries at Dover", the TV news is fake, the supermarkets all have fresh food, look here is a cucumber etc etc in November.
I mustn't forget the double think. We are meant to accept that No Deal Brexit is not a problem; but simultaneously we have to spend billions of pounds preparing for it, and the EU will cave in to our demands to avoid the problems it will cause.
it never was going to be.. a really anti conservative anti social mobility idea.
Is it? I can see there would be outcry from homeowners over it (pretty annoying for an existing homeowner to pay on purchase last year AND sale next) and am not surprised to see Javid say he has no such plans.
But, as a broad principle, why is it more anti-social mobility than loading Stamp Duty on purchasers? The beneficiaries would tend to be first time purchasers, and the losers estates on death.
In terms of mobility - moving for a job or whatever - it's a wash as you're selling one property and buying another (so just as now you pay on one half of the transaction but not the other).
Unionist opinion is not of one mind, as many polls show. I used to hear of Trotskyists with your apparent mindset, though I never actually met one - apparently they said things like "The worse the better, we need a crisis to raise class consciousness". I thought it was dangerous nonsense then and still do. Compared with you, Jeremy Corbyn is a snowflake centrist.
Except I'm not talking about stuff like consciousness I'm talking about compromise.
Compromise could occur today but neither side wants to. Transition won't make anyone want to either. A clean Brexit forces it.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
NI voted to Remain, remember?
Antrim voted Leave
And? Antrim is just one county. Are you proposing re-partition? Will the Nationalist parts of Antrim (eg. The Glens) be allowed to opt out?
If nationalists in Scotland and Catholic parts of Northern Ireland can threaten to leave the UK because of a referendum result so can Protestant parts of Northern Ireland refuse to become parts of the Republic of Ireland because of a referendum result
" I think MPs who respect the referendum result but are implacably opposed to both a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Premiership "
Is it possible to respect the referendum result and oppose a No Deal Brexit? This can only apply to MPs who either weren't paying attention during the referendum campaign or don't understand Article 50. They also can't possibly understand the EU's position on negotiating trade deals. Actually that goes for 100% of the media as well.
A permanent relationship or ‘deal’ was NEVER going to be agreed before the UK left the EU. The Article 50 negotiations are (or were) intended to develop (a) the terms of withdrawal and (b) an associated political declaration which would provide a detailed framework of a future deal. David Davis negotiated a sensible transition period to allow time for this ‘’deal’ to be agreed. May then stuck her oar in and (deliberately - I believe) created the mess which followed.
The legal position now is that no terms of withdrawal have been agreed and so the UK leaves the EU by default 2 years after the date of Article 50 notification (since extended to Oct 31st). This what MPs voted for. Respecting the referendum result means abiding by the Article 50 process.
Welcome to pb.com.
It would be great to have just one MP put their hand up and admit they were just too damned stupid to know what they were doing when they agreed to trigger Article 50.
As I would expect I see you support the unionist Nazis who were there yet again trying to cause trouble. Holocaust denier at the forefront in his manky union jack shirt. Did you fly in to join them waving your little flag. https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1162803955514191872/photo/1
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
NI voted to Remain, remember?
Antrim voted Leave
And? Antrim is just one county. Are you proposing re-partition? Will the Nationalist parts of Antrim (eg. The Glens) be allowed to opt out?
If nationalists in Scotland and Catholic parts of Northern Ireland can threaten to leave the UK because of a referendum result so can Protestant parts of Northern Ireland refuse to become parts of the Republic of Ireland because of a referendum result
So London Merseyside Manchester etc etc can the decide to stay in the EU if the wish because they didn’t vote to leave.
All this talk of GNU is fanciful, it would be almost entirely without Tory support.
80%+ of it's support would be from labour mps, with backing from the snp, a handful of lib Dems and sub 10 Tories. Making Ken Clark PM doesn't suddenly make it a GNU, it'd be wildly partizan.
Nothing without the support of 100 Tories could claim the name honesty
Clarke himself is talking about negotiating a softer Brexit. His GNU is a far more extensive project than Corbyn's splash and dash, extension and election.
Clarke would be talking about a softer Brexit than May's Shit Deal.
He is the most extreme EU fanatic in the House, with a decades-long track record and three failed bids to be Tory leader to back that up. His view of the EU is suported by well below 10% of the public. The idea of putting him in charge of implementing something voted for by 52% of the public is frankly risible.
Rather than Brexit, he'd no doubt love to sign us up to the Euro in a hearbeat.
You want the ultimate in broken politics? Prime Minister Ken Clarke is that ultimate. A man with no mandate whatsoever, it would also only be a short term fix for the EU. Because PM Farage would follow on in short order, with a mandate and the MPs to rip us out of the EU, whatever Clarke had signed up to.
To be fair, Mr M, Kenneth Clarke three times voted for Brexit.
Quite. It should be those who voted against a deal to leave the EU in parliament who should have any death as a result of no deal,on their conscience.
We are leaving the EU. No ifs or buts. Parliament rejected the smooth transition, not the Government.
The current government has no mandate for no deal Brexit. It was not the prospectus. Those, like you, who give them a free pass to damage the country in this way working to an artificial deadline that the public has never been consulted on are deranged.
The deadline was fixed by the HoC when it resolved overwhelmingly to serve the Article 50 notice. The fact that that 2 year period was then extended to little purpose (other than finally getting rid of an incompetent PM) does not change that.
There is nothing stopping the government seeking to change the deadline to achieve an orderly Brexit. But it prefers to risk serious disruption, suffering and in all probability death.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
And you think the British government (if there still is one) will have the capacity to impose a new partition?
The key takeaway is that Iain Duncan Smith sets out to trash his civil servants on ideological grounds. His only specific call out is bogus. He berates the civil servants for not reaching out to the Mayor of Calais in his claim there will be no queues there. But we know why. The lorries won't be allowed to board the ferries without preclearance.
O/T Just reading the thread - what hideous crime did notme (a very long-term peebee) perpetrate to warrant the smiting? His posts seemed unexceptionable.
As the Treasury predictions broadly turned out, with the exception of employment, the real scandal is people falsely presenting this work as a lie.
STOP LYING
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
O/T Just reading the thread - what hideous crime did notme (a very long-term peebee) perpetrate to warrant the smiting? His posts seemed unexceptionable.
He said if post-Brexit a family member of his died from lack of medicines, there would be a by-election required....
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
NI voted to Remain, remember?
Antrim voted Leave
And? Antrim is just one county. Are you proposing re-partition? Will the Nationalist parts of Antrim (eg. The Glens) be allowed to opt out?
If nationalists in Scotland and Catholic parts of Northern Ireland can threaten to leave the UK because of a referendum result so can Protestant parts of Northern Ireland refuse to become parts of the Republic of Ireland because of a referendum result
Does that mean me and 16 million other Remain voters can just refuse to the leave the EU? Brilliant! I think we have found a solution to Brexit!
As the Treasury predictions broadly turned out, with the exception of employment, the real scandal is people falsely presenting this work as a lie.
STOP LYING
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Just as well the BoE acted to stave off such a scenario.
Though only 1 in 6 Unionists in Northern Ireland back the backstop in the same poll
NI's populace doesn't consist solely of Unionists...
Its largest county, Antrim, is still 2/3 Unionist
Really? The population of Northern Ireland support the backstop by nearly 3:2, but it's fine to ignore their wishes because 5 out of 6 people, who make up 2 out of 3 people in one part of NI are opposed?
I'm glad you aren't involved in drawing up constituency boundaries.
The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was both communities in Northern Ireland, Unionist and Nationalist, had to have their wishes respected and share powet to secure peace.
Either the backstop or a hard border will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution ideally a technical solution for the border needs to be found
You need to acquaint yourself with Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Attitudes like yours are likely to make it very relevant in the next few years and there’s no need for any cross-community consensus before it is triggered.
Northern Ireland Protestants and the Orange Order will never accept being part of the Republic of Ireland whatever Schedule 1 says.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
And you think the British government (if there still is one) will have the capacity to impose a new partition?
Or the will. Especially given that most of its supporters would very happily see Northern ireland go in order to deliver Brexit.
As I would expect I see you support the unionist Nazis who were there yet again trying to cause trouble. Holocaust denier at the forefront in his manky union jack shirt. Did you fly in to join them waving your little flag. https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1162803955514191872/photo/1
As the Treasury predictions broadly turned out, with the exception of employment, the real scandal is people falsely presenting this work as a lie.
STOP LYING
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Just as well the BoE acted to stave off such a scenario.
In which case the BoE can stave off every future recession by cutting interest rates by 0.25% can't it.
As the Treasury predictions broadly turned out, with the exception of employment, the real scandal is people falsely presenting this work as a lie.
STOP LYING
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Don't you accuse me of lying, despicable person.
These are the relevant figures from the report:
Immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU on the UK (% difference from base level unless specified otherwise) Shock scenarioa Severe shock scenarioa GDP -3.6% -6.0% CPI inflation rate (percentage points) +2.3 +2.7 Unemployment rate (percentage points) +1.6 +2.4 Unemployment (level) +520,000 +820,000 Average real wages -2.8% -4.0% House prices -10% -18% Sterling exchange rate index -12% -15% Public sector net borrowing (£ billion) b +£24 billion +£39 billion a Peak impact over two years. Unemployment level rounded to the nearest 10,000. b Fiscal year 2017-18.
O/T Just reading the thread - what hideous crime did notme (a very long-term peebee) perpetrate to warrant the smiting? His posts seemed unexceptionable.
He said if post-Brexit a family member of his died from lack of medicines, there would be a by-election required....
O/T Just reading the thread - what hideous crime did notme (a very long-term peebee) perpetrate to warrant the smiting? His posts seemed unexceptionable.
He said if post-Brexit a family member of his died from lack of medicines, there would be a by-election required....
As @NickPalmer has rightly pointed out, your approach is Trotskyist. And no Brit would want to visit such destruction on their own country.
I don't believe you are British. Good choice of British-sounding posting name though.
Ha! I've been here for well over a decade now.
I don't believe there will be destruction I believe there will be compromise. There will only be compromise though if it is necessary.
You are playing with fire in a way that no actual Brit ever would.
Silly expression. Fire is fun to play with. Setting fires is the best part of camping.
Hmm that's as maybe but give a child a box of matches and a can of petrol and the fun might diminish somewhat.
At least you are not disagreeing with my comment.
I think some fire is necessary to find a solution yes.
I disagree with fire being bad and I disagree with the idea no Brit would support it. Controlled burn backs are better than wildfires.
A solution is easily available but until both sides have 'a fire in their belly' to reach one it won't be found. Necessity is the mother of invention.
There will be no return to the Troubles. There will be a compromise found instead but it will only be found after we exit without a backstop and has to be found.
As I would expect I see you support the unionist Nazis
Nice to see the Nats “rise above it” in their usual “Civic Nationalism” style......
I see you don't deny it, tip - when you live in a glass house do not throw the first stone. Your poor attempt to traduce me says it all yet again. The xenophobic unionist You are well personified by that picture even if it is not you it certainly portrays your persona very accurately.
As the Treasury predictions broadly turned out, with the exception of employment, the real scandal is people falsely presenting this work as a lie.
STOP LYING
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Don't you accuse me of lying, despicable person.
These are the relevant figures from the report:
Immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU on the UK (% difference from base level unless specified otherwise) Shock scenarioa Severe shock scenarioa GDP -3.6% -6.0% CPI inflation rate (percentage points) +2.3 +2.7 Unemployment rate (percentage points) +1.6 +2.4 Unemployment (level) +520,000 +820,000 Average real wages -2.8% -4.0% House prices -10% -18% Sterling exchange rate index -12% -15% Public sector net borrowing (£ billion) b +£24 billion +£39 billion a Peak impact over two years. Unemployment level rounded to the nearest 10,000. b Fiscal year 2017-18.
Comments
Yes the trailer looked to have some 'Helter Skelter' in it.
If it's as good as Pulp Fiction I'll be very happy.
Walken and the watch ... ☺
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1163019257254465537
The principle is one of compromise and consensus between the communities not one community forcing their will upon the other.
The Irish are standing firm behind the nationalist community and ignoring the unionists. So I have no qualms supporting the unionists and ignoring the nationalists. When the communities can come together we can have compromise.
That won't happen until the crisis comes to the fore. We need to trigger a crisis on the border or we won't have any compromise.
Either the backstop or a hard border with the Republic will leave either Unionists or Nationalists angry based on the polling data and an alternative solution, ideally a technical solution for the border, needs to be found
Unlike your good self, Pointless Pilot. Steering us all towards those vapid Remain retweets that will change nothing......
The one who locked the cabin door before slamming the plane into a hillside...
'Those MPs who try to continue to thwart what the British people voted for ought to be careful (pregnant pause) in whether or not they can retain their seats.'
I think he's got IDS beat for boneheaded malevolence, no mean feat.
At most all that would happen is the majority of Northern Ireland joins the Republic if there is a majority for that based on the Catholic majority counties while Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down remain part of the UK.
Given diehard Remainers have refused to accept a democratic referendum result, Protestant Unionists certainly will not either
"Orange Order chief 'will accept united Ireland' if majority votes for it"
https://tinyurl.com/y4ow5u9h
Another one for the inevitable public inquiry.
Is it possible to respect the referendum result and oppose a No Deal Brexit? This can only apply to MPs who either weren't paying attention during the referendum campaign or don't understand Article 50. They also can't possibly understand the EU's position on negotiating trade deals. Actually that goes for 100% of the media as well.
A permanent relationship or ‘deal’ was NEVER going to be agreed before the UK left the EU. The Article 50 negotiations are (or were) intended to develop (a) the terms of withdrawal and (b) an associated political declaration which would provide a detailed framework of a future deal. David Davis negotiated a sensible transition period to allow time for this ‘’deal’ to be agreed. May then stuck her oar in and (deliberately - I believe) created the mess which followed.
The legal position now is that no terms of withdrawal have been agreed and so the UK leaves the EU by default 2 years after the date of Article 50 notification (since extended to Oct 31st). This what MPs voted for. Respecting the referendum result means abiding by the Article 50 process.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Coming back to @AlastairMeeks' no mandate for no deal. Irrelevant. No deal is the way the UK will leave the EU in the absence of any other agreement.
What I wrote is true. @DavidL has rightly recognised the dangers of an extension without an agreed purpose but a transition without one will be just as problematic.
If we in bad faith enter a transition agreeing to a backstop but expecting it not to be enforced then why would the EU in good faith find an alternative?
An alternative needs to be found if the backstop isn't agreed because of history but it will only be agreed if the backstop is rejected.
https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm
The Republic of Ireland is also not a superpower like China
I am expecting: "there are no queues of lorries at Dover", the TV news is fake, the supermarkets all have fresh food, look here is a cucumber etc etc in November.
I don't believe you are British. Good choice of British-sounding posting name though.
But, as a broad principle, why is it more anti-social mobility than loading Stamp Duty on purchasers? The beneficiaries would tend to be first time purchasers, and the losers estates on death.
In terms of mobility - moving for a job or whatever - it's a wash as you're selling one property and buying another (so just as now you pay on one half of the transaction but not the other).
https://twitter.com/Janela_X/status/1163015413795627008?s=20
Compromise could occur today but neither side wants to. Transition won't make anyone want to either. A clean Brexit forces it.
It would be great to have just one MP put their hand up and admit they were just too damned stupid to know what they were doing when they agreed to trigger Article 50.
Just one, from a pool of dozens, maybe hundreds.
I don't believe there will be destruction I believe there will be compromise. There will only be compromise though if it is necessary.
https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1162803955514191872/photo/1
It's outdated they say. It's not.
We are led by idiots.
The Treasury predicted an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1162803955514191872/photo/1
These are the relevant figures from the report:
Immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU on the UK (% difference from base level unless specified otherwise)
Shock scenarioa Severe shock scenarioa
GDP -3.6% -6.0%
CPI inflation rate (percentage points) +2.3 +2.7
Unemployment rate (percentage points) +1.6 +2.4
Unemployment (level) +520,000 +820,000
Average real wages -2.8% -4.0%
House prices -10% -18%
Sterling exchange rate index -12% -15%
Public sector net borrowing (£ billion) b +£24 billion +£39 billion
a
Peak impact over two years. Unemployment level rounded to the nearest 10,000. b
Fiscal year 2017-18.
Relative to Remain.
At least you are not disagreeing with my comment.
Rawnsley on Labour prospects for an autumn election:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/18/mr-corbyn-wants-a-general-election-but-is-his-party-ready-to-fight-one
VALUE.
I disagree with fire being bad and I disagree with the idea no Brit would support it. Controlled burn backs are better than wildfires.
A solution is easily available but until both sides have 'a fire in their belly' to reach one it won't be found. Necessity is the mother of invention.
There will be no return to the Troubles. There will be a compromise found instead but it will only be found after we exit without a backstop and has to be found.
This is what you said: The Treasury predicted an immediate four quarter recession AND THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.
So it didn't 'broadly turn out'.
GDP increased, unemployment fell, house prices rose, government borrowing reduced.
https://twitter.com/plalor/status/1163042116047712257?s=21