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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the next Prime Minister. Maybe
John Bercow as Prime Minister seems outlandish even in these interesting times. There’s not enough bandwdith on the information superhighway to list all the reasons why this is a bad idea or why John Bercow is so unsuited to be Prime Minister but given the desperation amongst MPs to stop a No Deal Brexit then something outlandish needs to happen.
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Brexit has sent the country utterly barmy.
1. He is not acceptable as PM.
2. But his vote to appoint a new PM is acceptable.
LD 1/3 (from 2/5)
Con 2/1 (from 7/4)
Corbyn 11/4
Clarke 16/1
Farage 16/1
Starmer 16/1
Swinson 16/1
Javid 25/1
Long-Bailey 25/1
Raab 33/1
Rayner 33/1
Rees-Mogg 33/1
Stewart 33/1
Gove 40/1
Cooper 50/1
Lewis 50/1
Mercer 50/1
Mordaunt 50/1
Rudd 50/1
Thornberry 50/1
Watson 50/1
Cleverly 66/1
Cox 66/1
Davidson 66/1
McDonnell 66/1
Lucas 80/1
Moran 80/1
David Miliband 100/1
Ed Miliband 100/1
Tony Blair 200/1
Theresa May 200/1
David Cameron 250/1
Piers Morgan 500/1
George Osbourne 500/1
John Bercow?
2020 7/2
2023 or later 7/2
2019 4/1
2022 6/1
2021 7/1
4/1 for this year looks tempting, but precedent suggests that PM exit dates are always further off than you think.
I was out with a friend from Ulster last night, who I had not met for many years. He has lived his entire post-university life in England, and has a UUP, then Con, background. In passing I mentioned the “B” word, and he immediately became serious and just said that that was not a topic he was willing to talk about.
He explained his refusal by drawing a parallel with his childhood/youth during The Troubles. For the NI adults around him, the “T” word back then was like the “B” word is now in England: you only talk about it openly and honestly with very close friends and family, and even then, only whispering behind net-curtains. In other words, there is a virtual civil-war going on out there in his previously tranquil patch of Merrie Olde southern England. It was quite perturbing to see his otherwise jolly and relaxed demeanour become instantly so anguished at the passing mention of a word.
He's a gooner, for God's sake!
Also, Bercow's predecessors' constituents were disenfranchised just as much as his are.
"What about the DUP?"
- To be acceptable to the whole Remain corpus
- Not to threaten Jeremy Corbyn
So if odds are offered, I'll put something on. Thank you for the pre-screening hat tip, TSE.
However, I still think the Father of the House is an even better suggestion and I'm accordingly on him at 130/1.
I don't think parliament can afford for another individual so unsuited to occupy the seat.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49370692
"But he said the £2.4 million payment, made via his firm, First Avenue Partners Ltd, should have been rejected by the [Liberal Democrat] Party.
"They should have said to me: 'But Michael, you don't live in the United Kingdom, you're not registered on the voters' roll, your company was only born six months ago; really sorry Michael, thanks for coming, but no thanks,'" he said.
"That's what they should have done, but of course, you know, the pound signs tend to obscure absolutely everything else."
File under Q for QTWTAIN.
Legislation. We've seen this before with Grieve/Cooper, for instance. It could happen again and Boris is said to be wary of introducing any bills that might be hijacked (or amended).
Corbyn. This would be a Labour minority government to secure an extension then go to the country. Under purdah, it could not introduce any of the measures its opponents claim to be scared of. Well, we know what minority governments look like; indeed, we have one now.
So those two seem plausible choices.
But a Clarke-led GNU, especially as Clarke is talking about renegotiating to achieve a soft Brexit, would last for months, and would need to be a proper coalition government dealing with all areas of state. Who would be in this GNU? How many Cabinet seats for the SNP and which ones? For Labour? Would the rump Conservative Party form the Opposition? What would it be its policy on Health, Education and Stamp Duty?
It does not look realistic. There are just too many details left up in the air.
If Parliament collectively wants to stop us crashing out then legislation or Corbyn are the only realistic options.
For example, I see another British citizen who went to join, or at least 'look closely at, ISIS has had their citizenship revoked. That's an extremely serious thing to do, and there ought to be a lot more discussion over it.
I, for one, welcome our new enormo-haddock overlords.
I mean, we know that he thinks MPs should be able to do things when there's a majority in favour of doing them and the speaker shouldn't take a literal view of the rules that allows parliament to get DoSed by an executive with minority support, but beyond that?
80%+ of it's support would be from labour mps, with backing from the snp, a handful of lib Dems and sub 10 Tories. Making Ken Clark PM doesn't suddenly make it a GNU, it'd be wildly partizan.
Nothing without the support of 100 Tories could claim the name honesty
On a Sunday morning??
So we're going back a very long way indeed...
https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1162975044122927106?s=21
From Pitt to Johnson.
He is the most extreme EU fanatic in the House, with a decades-long track record and three failed bids to be Tory leader to back that up. His view of the EU is suported by well below 10% of the public. The idea of putting him in charge of implementing something voted for by 52% of the public is frankly risible.
Rather than Brexit, he'd no doubt love to sign us up to the Euro in a hearbeat.
You want the ultimate in broken politics? Prime Minister Ken Clarke is that ultimate. A man with no mandate whatsoever, it would also only be a short term fix for the EU. Because PM Farage would follow on in short order, with a mandate and the MPs to rip us out of the EU, whatever Clarke had signed up to.
Really don't see it myself, still it's strange times
I reckon that OGH is going to be asking Google to delete all record of the thread headers!
The worst case is still unleaked.
The podcasts are entertaining though.
A convicted businessman who donated £2.4m to the Liberal Democrats has said it was the "stupidest" thing he has ever done in his life.
Michael Brown made the payment - a record sum for the party - in 2005.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49370692
Also some poor economic date has depressed the €; the movement against the $ has been less marked.
"I think MPs who respect the referendum result but are implacably opposed to both a No Deal Brexit"
Is that not an oxymoron? If you oppose a no-deal exit, you're saying you only want to leave with the permission of the EU. And if the EU refuses to negotiate, which it is doing, then you either respect the referendum result and leave, or you remain.
Backing her for next PM you get 2 dogs in the race -
She emerges to lead the GNU (nicorn).
Johnson smashes Corbyn in a GE. Labour pivot back to the 'soft left' and pick the obvious senior and female figure as leader. They win the following GE.
I'm asking for 100 on betfair so if anybody thinks it ought to be longer and wants to match me?
Or by all means make a counter offer? ...
Which is why Scotland and N Ireland won’t be hanging about. If England wants to have the mid-life crisis of the century, then she can have it by herself.
But it respected the Leave vote. It maintained close alignment, and ended FoM, while allowing us to forge our own path.
The EU is closed. It's currently in effective recess between the end of one commission and parliament, and the beginning of the next.
If you want to negotiate with the EU, then you have to accept an extension, because there's no-one to negotiate with right now.
We are leaving the EU. No ifs or buts. Parliament rejected the smooth transition, not the Government.
The worst case is allowing these proto fascists to get their way. With them in charge we need to look back to 1930's Italy to get a fix on where we're heading.
"The EU agreed a deal with us. The deal was - basically - a good one. Could it have been better? Yes."
Who rejected the deal? MPs. Most of the MPs who voted against were Labour and the militant Remainers. The Leave voters had no say.
https://twitter.com/ukdefjournal/status/1162633120593657856?s=21
But I personally doubt we'll see shortages of medicines or food. I suspect we'll simply end up agreeing a deal that looks just like the Withdrawal Agreement about 18 nonths later, and after a quarter of a million people have unnecessarily lost their jobs, and possibly their homes.
One of his very best.