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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit
The real fight starts here. Jeremy Corbyn has written to other opposition party leaders suggesting that if he calls a vote of no confidence in the government, he stands ready to lead a temporary government to obtain an extension to the Article 50 notice and then call a general election.
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Worth remembering that ATL Boris Johnson was never going to be PM. Don't rule out Jezza just yet.
"Keep buying the baked beans."
Therefore, the search for someone acceptable can begin in reasonable time.
Now Remainers will force us out by not agreeing on a unicorn GNU.
Corbyn wants a chaotic Brexit. Start from that point, and work backwards.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1144630145208246272?s=20
We really don't know.
The truism still holds: Charles Kennedy drunk = better than any of his successors sober.
For the LibDems, the equation is this: Corbyn does not have the votes to win a vote of confidence and never will. So the LibDems should publicly back him on the condition that he undertakes to back their choice of candidate if he fails to win a vote of confidence. Corbyn will refuse.
Prescott? Brown? Harman handed over power to Corbyn once before...
I'd like to see some polling of that 19% on the question "If voting for the Brexit Party would result in a Prime Minister who would prevent Brexit, would you change your vote? If so, to which Party?"
I suspect that the Tories already have that polling in their back pocket.
The sad reality of all of our politicians is that they are only willing to put self interest aside when the clock is at five minutes to midnight. Hopefully.
Corbyn saying it has to be, err, Corbyn, and absolutely no-one else, isn't 'playing it for tactical advantage', no, of course not. Whatever could have made a brief suspicion that it might be flit across my mind?
What's more, the recent shift on Indyref 2 suggest he is willing to move to get SNP onside.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1161979202763132928
'Corbyn has shown all the leadership of a damp dishcloth.'
What on earth possessed you to make such a dreadful parallel? And a grossly unfair one.
I demand you apologise to any damp dishcloths that have been offended by being compared to the Jezaster.
The key - as you have eloquently explained downthread - is to focus on the need for a caretaker PM to be genuinely just that.
Is there any prospect of them attracting one? Would they want to? A large union, frustrated with JC and the threat to its members from No Deal, moving allegiance would be a game-changer, IMHO.
I await a slew of responses explaining why this is a non-starter!
The idea of stepping aside for another leader when he believes he's very close to power would be anathema to both him and his supporters.
Because if Corbyn enables Harman/Clarke being appointed PM, he loses out massively. He's the Leader or the Opposition, and is the obvious choice to lead the fight against No Deal.
Whereas Swinson should, in theory, be indifferent between a Corbyn-led GoNU, and one led by anyone else, if it's on a temporary basis to stop No Deal. She's trying to get the latter, out of the belief that she can gain by not allowing Corbyn to be seen as PM and leading the Remain cause. Hence "playing it for tactical advantage".
There's a lot of people who should know better who seem to think Corbyn should just randomly stand aside, because it would really help them if he did. He's doing exactly what he should be doing.
Yes, we could get a GNU with Not Corbyn as PM. This is unlikely but possible. But that GNU could not deliver Ref2. All it could do is extend Art 50 to allow a GE.
And for Brexit to be stopped (via Ref2) that GE must put the only feasible alternative to Boris Johnson into Number 10. A chap by the name of Jeremy Corbyn.
Stopping Brexit means PM Jezza. There is no way around this.
Again - sorry.
Fair enough if you think No Deal Brexit would be absolutely fine. But I think No Deal would be an insane disaster foisted on us by self-seeking, stupid, third-rate politicians.
The game changer would be if 150 Labour MPs offered to back an alternative as a temporary measure to revoke Article 50 and call a fresh referendum. But since they have the spine of a jellyfish that won't happen.
https://labourlist.org/2019/08/the-lib-dems-are-wrong-to-dismiss-jeremy-corbyns-offer/
The real question is whether a Corbyn GNU would actually extend A50. "Now we have the Papacy we mean to enjoy it" as the Pope Leo X apparently said.
If the LibDems did manage to get quite close to Labour in seats, then another GE where they can finish the job of replacing Labour is more likely where they want to end up.
Have you really the slightest idea of what may really happen if we leave without a deal, I wonder? How many people may die, if things really go badly wrong, and there is significant disruption to medical supplies, for example?
Not many.
Not enough from Corbyn's point of view.
There are very very few Labour MPs prepared to be complicit in a No Deal Brexit and not many CLPs who will deselect an MP for saving the country from no deal, as most Labour members are remainers.
Realistically, a successful candidate will need to be supportable by a dozen Tory MPs. Ian Blackford surely doesn't fit the bill. I suppose we're looking for someone on the far right of the Labour Party or someone who is currently sitting as a centrist or independent who hasn't previously burnt any bridges. Are there any of the latter? Frank Field would once have been a popular choice, but now? LibDems are problematic because of the 2010-15 coalition. That probably even rules out Stephen Lloyd.
It has happened before that the leader of a minor party (or no party) has been made PM in an emergency as a compromise. It happened in 1940, 1916, and 1852 (when Russell and Palmerston couldn't agree which of them should be PM and settled on Aberdeen as a compromise).
IMO, Artist is correct that the Tories would romp home if a GE were held under such circumstances.
So that ain’t happening.
Jezza can see we are leaving - this is just a fig leaf for the post Brexit election.
However Wes also knows - and wants - that the outcome of any such talks is most unlikely to lead to JC becoming PM.
Corbyn is neither of those - even a fair number of his own MPs severely doubt his competence.
Realistically - as Swinson has said - hard to see past Harman or Clarke.
If you're a 'true' remainer, then a referendum before a GE is a must, as otherwise you risk losing it all.
And I suppose it is also possible that out of this comes some form of cross party Remainer government under a senior figure which knuckles down for a year or so to do one job - cancel Brexit via Ref2. But this is surely unlikely.
For such a government to have the authority and mandate to deliver Ref2, the Cons must not be the largest party. Meaning that Lab will be.
So - JCorbyn not PM when he leads the largest party after a GE?
That is a stretch.
I could just about see a couple of dozen MPs willing to commit almost certain career suicide over Brexit, but there’s no chance of a couple of hundred doing so.
Johnson and Corbyn would both be very happy to expel anyone voting against their own party whip in a vote of confidence, people don’t seem to realise this.
"[T]he LibDems should publicly back him [Corbyn] on … condition … he undertakes to back their choice of candidate if he fails to win a vote of confidence. Corbyn will refuse."
I'd also expect him to refuse.
However, I think the invitation to 'back [another] choice of candidate' [for leader of a GNU] should be directed at finding the candidate able to command the most broadly based support and head an emergency administration able to (a) extend, (b) formulate and legislate for a final say, (c) organise and conduct a final say vote, AND (d) then call for a GE.
SM/JC have gambled on the PLP hanging together as things become increasingly messy - in the weeks ahead.
I don't believe that they have any real desire for/or interest in supporting or in being part of a GNU. But their bluff needs to be called.
The pendulum has shifted since 2016. And the profile of those who vote in normal elections is a subset of those who voted in the referendum, anyway.
It matters far more how the ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ votes fall within each constituency than on what the result was way back in 2016.
Cf. Brecon, and a string of local by-elections recently in strong leave areas.
Which is why if Corbyn cannot win a confidence vote, most Labour MPs will at least tolerate another GoNU PM.
How is this piece aiding the political betting of anyone? You may be all in favour of Corbyn or you may hate his guts but all I want from a political betting site are ideas about placing political bets.
For the record, Corbyn is a Brexiteer of many years standing. He heads a party that has been taken over by Federasts, but there is no evidence to suggest that he has changed his views.
He wants to take over after a no-deal exit that comes with political chaos in its wake. So the last thing he wants is to take over now and sort out the mess. Hence his letter which he must know that the minor parties will not accept and which will rally to Tories to Boris. So, his aim is to make sure that the vote of no-confidence which he has to table will be won by the government.
OK, back to political betting posts, please.
But, leaving that flimsy thread aside, we’d be in a 2010 situation viz Brown, where a pre-condition would be a change of leader.
But it's much easier to have a remain pact in a single seat at a by-election. Much much harder to organise something meaningful on a grander scale at a GE.
The fact remains that the remain vote is more likely to be more split than the leave vote, in view view. And that is before the leave vote is stoked up by the forthcoming shenanigans in Parliament.
The "Tell them again" line for Ref2 is equally if not more powerful in a Brexit GE - "don't let their underhand tactics steal the vote" is powerful against a remain alliance.
Any binary election will be largely on, um, binary lines.