The trouble with Schengen is that it ends up outsourcing border control to the weakest EU member state across its 9,000 mile border.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
EU membership requires either Schengen or the CTA, and even No Dealers are not planning to scrap the latter, so rejoining will not alter that. We will stay in the CTA whatever. I see no desire to expand the EZ either. It is mostly the rebate at risk from rejoining.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
The trouble with Schengen is that it ends up outsourcing border control to the weakest EU member state across its 9,000 mile border.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
EU membership requires either Schengen or the CTA, and even No Dealers are not planning to scrap the latter, so rejoining will not alter that. We will stay in the CTA whatever. I see no desire to expand the EZ either. It is mostly the rebate at risk from rejoining.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
The trouble with Schengen is that it ends up outsourcing border control to the weakest EU member state across its 9,000 mile border.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
EU membership requires either Schengen or the CTA, and even No Dealers are not planning to scrap the latter, so rejoining will not alter that. We will stay in the CTA whatever. I see no desire to expand the EZ either. It is mostly the rebate at risk from rejoining.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
The No Dealer preferred solution is to conquer Ireland.
I think if Johnson can somehow engineer a May type deal that's his best chance. Faragists will howl, but he can claim he did deliver Brexit and then bank the transition period of minimum change. No Deal will be very unstable and will go on forever. A fatal combination I suspect.
Surely if it goes on for ever then by definition it is stable?
Only in the sense that Iraq in the ten years following the invasion was "stable". The chaos certainly went on for a long time.
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Nah.....the later versions of the Spitfire (70 years ago) could fly faster, higher and climb more quickly.......but then it was a fighter, not a training aircraft (training for what? - ed.)
To fight off Isle of Man ! They also have fire engines and ambulances.
Why would the fact that the Isle of Man has fire engines and ambulances make them want to attack Ireland?
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
I dunno though, if you don't do a quick rejoin you still have to go through the post-no-deal deal talks, only to scrap the result of that and replace it with joining again. Isn't it quicker and less trouble just to say, "OK, let's go back to the status quo ante except no more rebate"?
The trouble with Schengen is that it ends up outsourcing border control to the weakest EU member state across its 9,000 mile border.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
EU membership requires either Schengen or the CTA, and even No Dealers are not planning to scrap the latter, so rejoining will not alter that. We will stay in the CTA whatever. I see no desire to expand the EZ either. It is mostly the rebate at risk from rejoining.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
The No Dealer preferred solution is to conquer Ireland.
Well, that is for the obvious reason that there is no threat to them, apart from the Big Island, and they defeated us last time without an air force.
Unless you think we're going to be invaded by the French, absolutely no nation is a true threat to us either and hasn't been for two hundred years. Now it's a view that the Baltic States should have to spend half their GDP on defense to combat the Russian threat but not one shared by NATO.
Later on, and passim ad nauseam, the target of it went on to concern Ireland.
Oh. Maybe the Pelagian heresy, then?
I'm going to have to give you this, I think.
It was in fact the Norman Conquest of England. William asked the Pope to give his invasion papal sanction which the Pope - rather pissed off at the Saxons ignoring him and appointing their own bishops and archbishops - did. As a result, the Normans were entitled to march under Papal banners and it became the first Papally-sanctioned war, or 'crusade.'
It was part of a wider eleventh century move to centralise the structure of the Catholic Church, of which what we might call the 'classic' crusades against the Saracens played an important part.
Did they think Saxon Britannia wasn’t Christian enough? Not enough burning and drowning of pagans?
The Pope considered it was (a) not following his instructions and (b) should be. Nothing more or less than that.
Friendly hint - that's twice you've now actually embarrassed yourself while talking about religious history. Maybe stop doing it?
Well, that is for the obvious reason that there is no threat to them, apart from the Big Island, and they defeated us last time without an air force.
Unless you think we're going to be invaded by the French, absolutely no nation is a true threat to us either and hasn't been for two hundred years. Now it's a view that the Baltic States should have to spend half their GDP on defense to combat the Russian threat but not one shared by NATO.
NATO is instrumental in putting up a defensive shield in the Baltic states. Had it not done so Putin would have cracked open a Georgia/Ukraine on it by now.
Mr. Doethur, he's trying to buy himself popularity.
It might work, considering who the leader of the opposition is. For a short time. In the long term, people like Labour (when it isn't led by a Communist) for spending money, and the Conservatives for belt-tightening.
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
I'll let him off the odd £100m here or there. It's the untold billions that he's prepared to throw away on a chaotic no deal Brexit that concern me more.
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
Later on, and passim ad nauseam, the target of it went on to concern Ireland.
Oh. Maybe the Pelagian heresy, then?
I'm going to have to give you this, I think.
It was in fact the Norman Conquest of England. William asked the Pope to give his invasion papal sanction which the Pope - rather pissed off at the Saxons ignoring him and appointing their own bishops and archbishops - did. As a result, the Normans were entitled to march under Papal banners and it became the first Papally-sanctioned war, or 'crusade.'
It was part of a wider eleventh century move to centralise the structure of the Catholic Church, of which what we might call the 'classic' crusades against the Saracens played an important part.
Did they think Saxon Britannia wasn’t Christian enough? Not enough burning and drowning of pagans?
The Pope considered it was (a) not following his instructions and (b) should be. Nothing more or less than that.
Friendly hint - that's twice you've now actually embarrassed yourself while talking about religious history. Maybe stop doing it?
Appointing your own chuch government is quite a threat to Rome.
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
Well, that is for the obvious reason that there is no threat to them, apart from the Big Island, and they defeated us last time without an air force.
Unless you think we're going to be invaded by the French, absolutely no nation is a true threat to us either and hasn't been for two hundred years. Now it's a view that the Baltic States should have to spend half their GDP on defense to combat the Russian threat but not one shared by NATO.
NATO is instrumental in putting up a defensive shield in the Baltic states. Had it not done so Putin would have cracked open a Georgia/Ukraine on it by now.
Sure, I'm just noting that if everyone was to take Foxy and Ireland's view of "defense", Germany would be err... larger than it is today. The Republic of China would be part of the People's Republic, so would Russia be larger as you point out. We're very generous when it comes to our military, providing along with France and the USA essentially defense of the west. That's most accute in the Baltics. If we weren't in NATO, it wouldn't be the UK under threat - we'd be under way less threat !
Putting it to the test with a hard Brexit could be an interesting case study. If in a few years Spain or Greece or others are still struggling but a free from Brussels Britain is surprising people by doing well we could lead the path for others to follow.
I say this as a Leaver who still supports Leave (but obviously not just crashing out because we've screwed up leaving on time with a deal). No country is going to look at what the UK has done since the referendum and say "we should do that".
Depends - if we now have a team prepared to go full Singapore-off-mainland-Europe,.....
why don't we just stay in the EU and magically become like Luxembourg? - seems much more attractive than Singapore
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
Seems that the mps need to take care in trying to stop brexit as Boris will clearly make a GE the people v the remainer HOC and unelected HOL
An early vonc could play straight into Boris's hand
Indeed these poll findings, if they solidify in other polls, could see many mps not wanting to be seen supporting no brexit
I should be very careful about reading too much into opinion polls commisioned for Brexit supporting newspapers! The Brexit supporting media is in full boosting Johnson mode, they are not following public opinion but trying to lead it into No Deal Brexit and supporting Johnson in the 'forthcoming election'.
Johnson is in the business of convincing everyone that he is heading for no deal in the hope that the EU will blink. He's doing a pretty good job at the moment, partly because his parliamentary opponents are quiet at the moment so he has the field to himself. But if the EU does not blink things will be much more difficult for him in a few weeks' time.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
They DO have the inclination and the desire to blink. As individual nations.They need a deal, as Europe teeters on the edge of recession, and another eurozone crisis. They need a good, mutually beneficial deal. Why die on a hill for a backstop they don't actually like!?
The problem is the EU as a PROJECT cannot sustain a decent deal. as it shows it maybe profits a nation to quit the EU.
A club which can only exist by menacing members who want to leave is not fit for purpose. Hence, Brexit. The appalling difficulty of Brexit proves the absolute necessity of Brexit.
I'm confused - No-Deal Brexit is both nothing to fear AND a punishment to make sure nobody else leaves?
Well, that is for the obvious reason that there is no threat to them, apart from the Big Island, and they defeated us last time without an air force.
Unless you think we're going to be invaded by the French, absolutely no nation is a true threat to us either and hasn't been for two hundred years. Now it's a view that the Baltic States should have to spend half their GDP on defense to combat the Russian threat but not one shared by NATO.
NATO is instrumental in putting up a defensive shield in the Baltic states. Had it not done so Putin would have cracked open a Georgia/Ukraine on it by now.
Sure, I'm just noting that if everyone was to take Foxy and Ireland's view of "defense", Germany would be err... larger than it is today. The Republic of China would be part of the People's Republic, so would Russia be larger as you point out. We're very generous when it comes to our military, providing along with France and the USA essentially defense of the west. That's most accute in the Baltics. If we weren't in NATO, it wouldn't be the UK under threat - we'd be under way less threat !
There was a time when we were quite content with Germany not spending too much on “defence”...
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Why even bother? It would struggle to deal with seagulls.
This where the lumping term "seagulls" causes problems. I suspect they could cope with Little Gulls. Maybe even a Black-headed. Greater Black-backed? Or the thuggish Glaucous Gull? Not so much.....
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic. [...]
I would say removal of borders and free movement is at least as important part of what the EU is, as is free trade. There is neither total freedom of movement nor free trade, but both are real and much more developed than anywhere else in the world.
I agree and I would go further. The idea of the EU as just a trading bloc has little currency outside the UK.
Schengen transforms how people think of borders within the EU. This affects people at the individual level: how they work, how they travel, how they live. It enables regions of adjoining countries to work together, to make broken regions into a coherent unitary area.
Ironically, three years of arguing about the Northern Irish border still hasn’t persuaded the British of the merits of minimal borders.
It's always been first and foremost an attempt at an eternal peace treaty between France and Germany.
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
Appointing your own chuch government is quite a threat to Rome.
Not quite, in the context of the times. For most of the period c.500-1054, central control of the church was very slack. There were a number of reasons for this - that Europe had become divided up, that Rome was itself quite impoverished, that several wars were going on including of course the Viking attacks and the Pope therefore needed the protection of the laity, rather than the other way around. But it also meant that religious orthodoxy was not uniform (if that makes sense). For example, the edicts on clerical celibacy had been made in (if memory serves) the early seventh century, but were not being enforced.
From the early eleventh century this began to change and a number of energetic and worldly Popes began to assert their power over matters of doctrine and clerical appointments. This is one of the reasons of course for the Great Schism. But the spread was uneven, partly because it depended on how much local rulers listened to the pope. In England, for all the legend of Edward the Confessor, they did not. Rome was a long way off and the Saxons had been managing their own religious affairs very nicely for four centuries and saw no reason for that to change. So William saw the opportunity to get the Pope on his side for the invasion of England by saying he would put that right. How far he thought it would boost morale among his men and how far he simply wanted to keep rivals off his land by threatening them with excommunication if they took advantage of his absence I don't know.
And of course, when he became King he was perfectly happy to control church appointments anyway. Although that said he also made major monastic reforms under the influence of the Cluniac movement.
Mr. Recidivist/Mr. glw, ahem. As always, cuts both ways.
We are both, apparently, completely sovereign and not too integrated with the EU *and* leaving may destroy the economy and country.
People say different things. Different people, in particular, say different things. It's not surprising there's a variety of views. Taking small sample sizes as indicative of large groups isn't especially enlightening or helpful.
By that token, one might assume all morris dancers are genetic engineers with an interest in giant, land-walking superfish.
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
I would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement but I respect the will of the people and of course Boris led the Leave campaign
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
Well if there is a magic money tree, then I say get Corbyn in ASAP.
Except the Tories will cut taxes too and grow the economy unlike Corbyn
George Osborne flatlined the recovery the Conservatives inherited from Labour.
If anyone was an Orange Book LD in blue it was George Osborne but even he cut the deficit and cut inheritance and income tax and ringfenced NHS spending
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
I would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement but I respect the will of the people and of course Boris led the Leave campaign
But let's be clear - you are personally against the restoration of Britain's national sovereignty. Happy to be ruled by the diktat of countless faceless bureaucrats in Brussels.
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
Well if there is a magic money tree, then I say get Corbyn in ASAP.
Except the Tories will cut taxes too and grow the economy unlike Corbyn
George Osborne flatlined the recovery the Conservatives inherited from Labour.
If anyone was an Orange Book LD in blue it was George Osborne but even he cut the deficit and cut inheritance and income tax and ringfenced NHS spending
Osborne borrowed more than we would have done under Darling's plans. He blew it big time.
Unless a) Bercow, Grieve et al come up with something unexpected that blindsides the government, or b) the European negotiating position cracks at the last moment, it's a No deal Exit on 31/10. I don't give much odds to either a) or b), certainly not a combined 57%. But I live in a place where it's illegal to gamble.
You don't explain why you discount a lot of the possibilities, but in any case like I say the probabilities implied by this market are more like 50% than 57%. This is because a No Deal Pound is worth substantially less than a No No Deal Pound.
I am persuaded by the logic presented by the Institute for Government that there are likely no parliamentary mechanisms left, short of Revoke (for which I see no majority) or VONC (ditto, given the lack of a viable alternative government and the consequent implications around general election timing).
As regards the EU giving ground, maybe they still will, right at the death. But everything I've heard implies that the key players think the UK has been captured by a minority and illegitimate Alt Right movement that it's their duty to rescue UK citizens from, and that if they hold the line, it will all get undone (but possibly now requiring a chaotic exit first). That's without the Pour Encourager Les Autres factor.
On the Torygraph Brexit podcast on Friday, Adonis seemed to have mentally pivoted to the idea of the fight now being one of campaigning to re-enter rather than stopping Brexit from happening. Unattributed quotes in the last 24 hours from Tory Remainers along the same lines.
I haven't considered FX expectations impacting a political betting market before. If you had a really strong view but were worried about Cable, wouldn't you just hedge if the UK market was the only one with any liquidity?
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
I would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement but I respect the will of the people and of course Boris led the Leave campaign
This makes no sense. Was leaving the EU (with a Euro optout) restoring national sovereignty or not? And if it was, why did you, as a Conservative, vote against it?
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
I would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement but I respect the will of the people and of course Boris led the Leave campaign
This makes no sense. Was leaving the EU (with a Euro optout) restoring national sovereignty or not? And if it was, why did you, as a Conservative, vote against it?
We'll get HY's logic chip to melt down before the day is out!
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
I dunno though, if you don't do a quick rejoin you still have to go through the post-no-deal deal talks, only to scrap the result of that and replace it with joining again. Isn't it quicker and less trouble just to say, "OK, let's go back to the status quo ante except no more rebate"?
If you could guarantee that it would be the end of it, sure, but would the large minority of the British population who are rhetorically prepared to go to war for their freedom from collective regulation of lightbulbs acquiesce to such a settlement, or is there the prospect of another decade, at least, of the British Question dominating the politics of the EU?
If you include the period since Cameron arrived with his renegotiation demands before the referendum there has been four years of this already. The EU needs it to go away so it can inch closer to a banking and fiscal union
Psychologically I think there is a big difference between giving Britain endless time to decide whether we really do want to leave, with perma-extensions, and agreeing to an instant rejoin the first time we ask after we've left.
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
Yes, keeping Corbyn out of No 10 for which no price is too high, we all saw how well voters reacted to May's 'I have no magic money tree' in 2017
How very conservative of you.
Conservatism is more than cutting spending, like restoring national sovereignty and cracking down on crime. The Tory Party are not just Orange Book LDs in blue, we have had 9 years of austerity, a bit of populist Boris Berlusconi is all to the good
You voted AGAINST restoring national sovereignty, remember. It was red-blooded Socialists like me and BJO who had our nation's interests at heart!
I would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement but I respect the will of the people and of course Boris led the Leave campaign
I would have voted leave if fellating Michel Barnier had been a requirement but luckily for both of us neither the euro nor fellatio was on the ballot paper.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
I'll let him off the odd £100m here or there. It's the untold billions that he's prepared to throw away on a chaotic no deal Brexit that concern me more.
Looks to me like Grandpa Jeremy has won part of the economic argument. By itself the usefulness of fresh QE / lower rates will be akin to pushing against a piece of a string upon the next downturn. Fiscal expansionism (likely funded by QE if the initial burst doesn't work) will be the order of the day worldwide. Makes sense to line up a viable programme of supply side spending projects now, so the cash isn't wasted when the taps get turned on in a year or so.
The political dividing line in the UK will be whether you print to fund new entitlements and nationalisations or print to fund tax cuts and fresh infrastructure. Fiscal conservatives are likely to be politically homeless for the next decade would be my bet.
I haven't considered FX expectations impacting a political betting market before. If you had a really strong view but were worried about Cable, wouldn't you just hedge if the UK market was the only one with any liquidity?
It hardly ever does, it's very unusual to have a political event with a big, predictable impact on the exchange rate. The only recent one I can think of in a developed country was Brexit itself, which IIRC did actually have a couple of points of spread between the UK markets and the US markets.
You could indeed hedge if you wanted to, but since you're already betting and taking a position, it makes more sense to just consider the value of your winnings in each case.
Mr. Doethur, he's trying to buy himself popularity.
It might work, considering who the leader of the opposition is. For a short time. In the long term, people like Labour (when it isn't led by a Communist) for spending money, and the Conservatives for belt-tightening.
Quite. The tories are now defined by Brexit and brexit alone, the other things they are doing prevent attacks on labour for doing the same.
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Why even bother? It would struggle to deal with seagulls.
1. It's (a lot) better than nothing against civil aviation threats. 2. Preserve some air combat culture and knowledge in case they ever decide to get back into the fast air game (probably with ex-Belgian/Dutch F-16s). 3. Recruitment and retention.
The Irish have just paid 33m Euros for 3 x PC-12NG and the British have paid 37bn quid for 160 Typhoons, 24 of which have already been scrapped. The wisest path is probably somewhere in the middle.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
The clue is in the description - Anglo Norman. The fact that they spoke French is pettifoggery - they came, as per Foxy, from "the larger of the British Isles".
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
So Brexit has brought us to PM BJ fawning over John Bolton dispensing crumbs from POTUS Trump's table. I hope none of the Brexiteers polishing that particular turd have ever bleated about war criminal Bliar making us GW's bitch, else they'd be revealed as massive hypocrites. And of course we know they're not that.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Technically the Duchy of Normandy is still held by the British Crown.
But these days it consists solely of the Channel Islands.
I think if Johnson can somehow engineer a May type deal that's his best chance. Faragists will howl, but he can claim he did deliver Brexit and then bank the transition period of minimum change. No Deal will be very unstable and will go on forever. A fatal combination I suspect.
Surely if it goes on for ever then by definition it is stable?
Only in the sense that Iraq in the ten years following the invasion was "stable". The chaos certainly went on for a long time.
Entropy then. I can work with that
Entropy is such a kind word for endless pain and suffering.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
She is also the Duke of Lancaster.
That’s not a real title. Or at least one getting excited over.
Seems that the mps need to take care in trying to stop brexit as Boris will clearly make a GE the people v the remainer HOC and unelected HOL
An early vonc could play straight into Boris's hand
Indeed these poll findings, if they solidify in other polls, could see many mps not wanting to be seen supporting no brexit
I should be very careful about reading too much into opinion polls commisioned for Brexit supporting newspapers! The Brexit supporting media is in full boosting Johnson mode, they are not following public opinion but trying to lead it into No Deal Brexit and supporting Johnson in the 'forthcoming election'.
Johnson is in the business of convincing everyone that he is heading for no deal in the hope that the EU will blink. He's doing a pretty good job at the moment, partly because his parliamentary opponents are quiet at the moment so he has the field to himself. But if the EU does not blink things will be much more difficult for him in a few weeks' time.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
They DO have the inclination and the desire to blink. As individual nations.They need a deal, as Europe teeters on the edge of recession, and another eurozone crisis. They need a good, mutually beneficial deal. Why die on a hill for a backstop they don't actually like!?
The problem is the EU as a PROJECT cannot sustain a decent deal. as it shows it maybe profits a nation to quit the EU.
A club which can only exist by menacing members who want to leave is not fit for purpose. Hence, Brexit. The appalling difficulty of Brexit proves the absolute necessity of Brexit.
I'm confused - No-Deal Brexit is both nothing to fear AND a punishment to make sure nobody else leaves?
You think you're confused, Byronic voted remain! Apparently.
If the Cons do go to no deal they will evidently no longer represent your political views and hence I wondered where you might go for a political home?
If the Cons do go to no deal they will evidently no longer represent your political views and hence I wondered where you might go for a political home?
They will, I now back Brexit Deal or No Deal and respect the Leave vote to put restoring national sovereignty first
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
I believe it's because the 'lawful sovereign' was declared in 1399 to be at the same time 'the Duke of Normandy and Duke of Lancaster.' So due to an oversight they made those titles gender-neutral.
But it may be as simple as because the title descends with the monarch and you cannot inherit Dukedoms through a duchess.
Seems that the mps need to take care in trying to stop brexit as Boris will clearly make a GE the people v the remainer HOC and unelected HOL
An early vonc could play straight into Boris's hand
Indeed these poll findings, if they solidify in other polls, could see many mps not wanting to be seen supporting no brexit
I should be very careful about reading too much into opinion polls commisioned for Brexit supporting newspapers! The Brexit supporting media is in full boosting Johnson mode, they are not following public opinion but trying to lead it into No Deal Brexit and supporting Johnson in the 'forthcoming election'.
Johnson is in the business of convincing everyone that he is heading for no deal in the hope that the EU will blink. He's doing a pretty good job at the moment, partly because his parliamentary opponents are quiet at the moment so he has the field to himself. But if the EU does not blink things will be much more difficult for him in a few weeks' time.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
They DO have the inclination and the desire to blink. As individual nations.They need a deal, as Europe teeters on the edge of recession, and another eurozone crisis. They need a good, mutually beneficial deal. Why die on a hill for a backstop they don't actually like!?
The problem is the EU as a PROJECT cannot sustain a decent deal. as it shows it maybe profits a nation to quit the EU.
A club which can only exist by menacing members who want to leave is not fit for purpose. Hence, Brexit. The appalling difficulty of Brexit proves the absolute necessity of Brexit.
I'm confused - No-Deal Brexit is both nothing to fear AND a punishment to make sure nobody else leaves?
You think you're confused, Byronic voted remain! Apparently.
I believe Byronic 'definitely not SeanT' voted Leave but changed his mind every week of the campaign, I was also about 50 50
Not ComRes's finest hour. They seem to have been willing to ask a succession of highly leading questions and then present them in the way that is most pleasing to their paymaster. I hope they were well-paid for the damage to their integrity.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic.
Re Marquee Mark's question about Vietnam, I'm not sure if it was serious? In Vietnam the war is known, with considerable justification, as the American War.
I haven't yet read Max Hastings' apparently excellent book, but I thoroughly recommend the outstanding Ken Burns Lynn Novick 10-part series The Vietnam War. It's rated 9.1 on imdb and deserves every digit of it. It begins, as it should, back well before the Americans committed 3.5 million troops to the region, 2.75 million of whom were in Vietnam. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1877514/?ref_=nv_sr_1?ref_=nv_sr_1
It's outstanding documentary making. Jaw-dropping partly because of its dispassionate portrayal with voices from all quarters. You won't have a problem with the word 'invasion' after you see it. There are far worse descriptions one could use.
OK, for clarity to the initial comment- at what point did America "invade" South Vietnam?
If the Cons do go to no deal they will evidently no longer represent your political views and hence I wondered where you might go for a political home?
They will, I now back Brexit Deal or No Deal and respect the Leave vote to put restoring national sovereignty first
Rubbish. You voted to stay in the single market and customs union (and for continued free movement). There is no way NO WAY someone could be so flaky as to change their political views to such an enormous degree I simply don't believe it. You are a man of political principle and registered your views in June 2016.
President Trump's National Security adviser John Bolton says the UK is first in line for a trade deal and he backs No Deal. It would be done sector by sector with manufacturing first before financial services and agriculture.
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
I believe it's because the 'lawful sovereign' was declared in 1399 to be at the same time 'the Duke of Normandy and Duke of Lancaster.' So due to an oversight they made those titles gender-neutral.
But it may be as simple as because the title descends with the monarch and you cannot inherit Dukedoms through a duchess.
Thanks.
The saddest thing about Dave losing the referendum was I never got the Dukedom I wanted.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
Wasn't Prince Eddy's nickname in the marines the Duchess or something like?
Not ComRes's finest hour. They seem to have been willing to ask a succession of highly leading questions and then present them in the way that is most pleasing to their paymaster. I hope they were well-paid for the damage to their integrity.
In what way is that not a legitimate question? Given that the advance leftist blitz was that Boris was the coming of the Fifth Horseman who would put the first-born on the barbeque, why not ask if those fears have materialised?
If the Cons do go to no deal they will evidently no longer represent your political views and hence I wondered where you might go for a political home?
They will, I now back Brexit Deal or No Deal and respect the Leave vote to put restoring national sovereignty first
Rubbish. You voted to stay in the single market and customs union (and for continued free movement). There is no way NO WAY someone could be so flaky as to change their political views to such an enormous degree I simply don't believe it. You are a man of political principle and registered your views in June 2016.
I voted for staying in the EU with all the opt outs just, however a majority of voters voted to Leave the EU to restore sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration through eg the points system Boris wants even with some economic risk. I respect their decision and the Leave vote must be delivered to respect democracy
Right, on optimistic assumptions about how many Labour MPs you lose (assuming leadership support) you might only need like 3 Tories, that's a tiny fraction of the total number who oppose No Deal.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
And I'm still mad about it
Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
Wasn't Prince Eddy's nickname in the marines the Duchess or something like?
Yes.
I believe Prince Edward was in the Marines for just over three months, judging by the medals he wears it must have been the most dangerous three months in the history of the Marines.
Not ComRes's finest hour. They seem to have been willing to ask a succession of highly leading questions and then present them in the way that is most pleasing to their paymaster. I hope they were well-paid for the damage to their integrity.
In what way is that not a legitimate question? Given that the advance leftist blitz was that Boris was the coming of the Fifth Horseman who would put the first-born on the barbeque, why not ask if those fears have materialised?
A neutral question would not have set "better than expected" as the benchmark. It would have had a "worse than expected" option and it would have probably have been something like:
"Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister for 5 seconds. Thinking back to your expectations before he became Prime Minister, which of these most accurately reflects your opinion?
"I expected Boris Johnson to do well and he is doing as I expected." "I expected Boris Johnson to do well and he is doing worse than I expected." "I expected Boris Johnson to do badly and he is doing better than I expected." "I expected Boris Johnson to do badly and he is doing as I expected."
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Why even bother? It would struggle to deal with seagulls.
1. It's (a lot) better than nothing against civil aviation threats. 2. Preserve some air combat culture and knowledge in case they ever decide to get back into the fast air game (probably with ex-Belgian/Dutch F-16s). 3. Recruitment and retention.
The Irish have just paid 33m Euros for 3 x PC-12NG and the British have paid 37bn quid for 160 Typhoons, 24 of which have already been scrapped. The wisest path is probably somewhere in the middle.
For even better value they could buy some airfix models with a few pilots standing near the coast going ‘pew pew’ instead.
If the Cons do go to no deal they will evidently no longer represent your political views and hence I wondered where you might go for a political home?
They will, I now back Brexit Deal or No Deal and respect the Leave vote to put restoring national sovereignty first
Rubbish. You voted to stay in the single market and customs union (and for continued free movement). There is no way NO WAY someone could be so flaky as to change their political views to such an enormous degree I simply don't believe it. You are a man of political principle and registered your views in June 2016.
I voted for staying in the EU with all the opt outs just, however a majority of voters voted to Leave the EU to restore sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration through eg the points system Boris wants even with some economic risk. I respect their decision and the Leave vote must be delivered to respect democracy
Of course. But you don't believe in it. If Jeremy Corbyn was voted in tomorrow we would all respect the decision of the electorate, etc, etc but we wouldn't join the Labour Party in order to help him push through his Tesco nationalisation programme.
You want to stay in the EU. You want to retain single market membership and free movement. The Conservative Party doesn't. It's not your party any more, sadly for you I'm sure.
Amazing to think that Boris is in an uncosted spending splurge bidding war with Corbyn’s Labour - and is winning!
Says an awful lot about politics - and not in a good way.
Sky News added it up yesterday and reckoned it came to about £380 m a day without any tax cuts factored in I wonder if he’s forgotten how many days are in a week?
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49323110
Friendly hint - that's twice you've now actually embarrassed yourself while talking about religious history. Maybe stop doing it?
Prisons: Boris Johnson pledges £100m to boost security
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49323110
I suppose it's too much to ask he's actually meaningfully costed these promises?
It might work, considering who the leader of the opposition is. For a short time. In the long term, people like Labour (when it isn't led by a Communist) for spending money, and the Conservatives for belt-tightening.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-49327241
He also accused the EU of treating its voters like peasants after making them vote again after results it did not like
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49325620
We're very generous when it comes to our military, providing along with France and the USA essentially defense of the west. That's most accute in the Baltics. If we weren't in NATO, it wouldn't be the UK under threat - we'd be under way less threat !
What does The Saj think of all this?
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1161164049519927296?s=21
https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1161168660028936193?s=21
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1161172814134730752?s=21
Cannot remember when a pollster has been publicly slammed like this.
From the early eleventh century this began to change and a number of energetic and worldly Popes began to assert their power over matters of doctrine and clerical appointments. This is one of the reasons of course for the Great Schism. But the spread was uneven, partly because it depended on how much local rulers listened to the pope. In England, for all the legend of Edward the Confessor, they did not. Rome was a long way off and the Saxons had been managing their own religious affairs very nicely for four centuries and saw no reason for that to change. So William saw the opportunity to get the Pope on his side for the invasion of England by saying he would put that right. How far he thought it would boost morale among his men and how far he simply wanted to keep rivals off his land by threatening them with excommunication if they took advantage of his absence I don't know.
And of course, when he became King he was perfectly happy to control church appointments anyway. Although that said he also made major monastic reforms under the influence of the Cluniac movement.
We are both, apparently, completely sovereign and not too integrated with the EU *and* leaving may destroy the economy and country.
People say different things. Different people, in particular, say different things. It's not surprising there's a variety of views. Taking small sample sizes as indicative of large groups isn't especially enlightening or helpful.
By that token, one might assume all morris dancers are genetic engineers with an interest in giant, land-walking superfish.
Has he tried Viagra?
As regards the EU giving ground, maybe they still will, right at the death. But everything I've heard implies that the key players think the UK has been captured by a minority and illegitimate Alt Right movement that it's their duty to rescue UK citizens from, and that if they hold the line, it will all get undone (but possibly now requiring a chaotic exit first). That's without the Pour Encourager Les Autres factor.
On the Torygraph Brexit podcast on Friday, Adonis seemed to have mentally pivoted to the idea of the fight now being one of campaigning to re-enter rather than stopping Brexit from happening. Unattributed quotes in the last 24 hours from Tory Remainers along the same lines.
I haven't considered FX expectations impacting a political betting market before. If you had a really strong view but were worried about Cable, wouldn't you just hedge if the UK market was the only one with any liquidity?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/12/thank-lib-dems-boris-johnson-guaranteed-deliver-brexit-october/
If you include the period since Cameron arrived with his renegotiation demands before the referendum there has been four years of this already. The EU needs it to go away so it can inch closer to a banking and fiscal union
Psychologically I think there is a big difference between giving Britain endless time to decide whether we really do want to leave, with perma-extensions, and agreeing to an instant rejoin the first time we ask after we've left.
The political dividing line in the UK will be whether you print to fund new entitlements and nationalisations or print to fund tax cuts and fresh infrastructure. Fiscal conservatives are likely to be politically homeless for the next decade would be my bet.
You could indeed hedge if you wanted to, but since you're already betting and taking a position, it makes more sense to just consider the value of your winnings in each case.
they've clearly not included me.
2. Preserve some air combat culture and knowledge in case they ever decide to get back into the fast air game (probably with ex-Belgian/Dutch F-16s).
3. Recruitment and retention.
The Irish have just paid 33m Euros for 3 x PC-12NG and the British have paid 37bn quid for 160 Typhoons, 24 of which have already been scrapped. The wisest path is probably somewhere in the middle.
The fact that they spoke French is pettifoggery - they came, as per Foxy, from "the larger of the British Isles".
But these days it consists solely of the Channel Islands.
PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
Apparently.
But it may be as simple as because the title descends with the monarch and you cannot inherit Dukedoms through a duchess.
The saddest thing about Dave losing the referendum was I never got the Dukedom I wanted.
I believe Prince Edward was in the Marines for just over three months, judging by the medals he wears it must have been the most dangerous three months in the history of the Marines.
I hope he writes a book on his experiences.
"Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister for 5 seconds. Thinking back to your expectations before he became Prime Minister, which of these most accurately reflects your opinion?
"I expected Boris Johnson to do well and he is doing as I expected."
"I expected Boris Johnson to do well and he is doing worse than I expected."
"I expected Boris Johnson to do badly and he is doing better than I expected."
"I expected Boris Johnson to do badly and he is doing as I expected."
Boris Johnson is doing:
1) As well as I expected
2) better than I expected
3) worse than I expected
4) Not sure/no view.
Somehow for me it would be 3. Don't know he's done that given how low my expectations were, but he has.
New Thread
You want to stay in the EU. You want to retain single market membership and free movement. The Conservative Party doesn't. It's not your party any more, sadly for you I'm sure.