It takes summat to simultaneously hold that UK will become totally united and resolute by the threat of economic travails with the continent, whilst Ireland will panic and fold in the face of the same with the U.K. Especially when half the UK didn't want it in the first place.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Well until 1949 King George remained the Irish Head of State.
So fucking what? Like that outweighs staying neutral in World War 2 and saying “ we are sorry Herr Hitler topped himself”.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
Called Anglo Norman for a reason, the invasion was a British one...
Christ. Do I have to actually read Wiki for you, as well? From that same article I cited:
"the Anglo-Norman lords continued to invade Irish kingdoms and they attacked the Normans in turn. In 1177, Henry adopted a new policy. He declared his son John to be "Lord of Ireland" (i.e. of the whole country) and authorized the Norman lords to conquer more land. The territory they held became the Lordship of Ireland and formed part of the Angevin Empire."
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
So those stupid weak Irish should be grateful they have big strong Britain looking after them should they?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
So the French trying to land in Bantry Bay in 1797, or the Germans accidentally bombing Ireland 1939/45 were fictional?
Trivial or accidental. Cromwell, King Billy, the 98 rising, the 16 rising and the Black and Tans however were not.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
So the French trying to land in Bantry Bay in 1797, or the Germans accidentally bombing Ireland 1939/45 were fictional?
Do you know why the French were trying to land in Ireland in 1797?
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Well until 1949 King George remained the Irish Head of State.
So fucking what? Like that outweighs staying neutral in World War 2 and saying “ we are sorry Herr Hitler topped himself”.
they sent condolences to the German delegation upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been
Viscount Cranborne, Secretary of State for Dominion Affairs, wrote a letter on 21 February 1945 to the War Cabinet regarding Irish-British collaboration during WW2: "They agreed to our use of Lough Foyle for naval and air purposes. The ownership of the Lough is disputed, but the Southern Irish authorities are tacitly not pressing their claim in present conditions and are also ignoring any flying by our aircraft over the Donegal shore of the Lough, which is necessary in certain wind conditions to enable flying boats to take off the Lough. They have agreed to use by our aircraft based on Lough Erne of a corridor over Southern Irish territory and territorial waters for the purpose of flying out to the Atlantic. They have arranged for the immediate transmission to the United Kingdom Representative's Office in Dublin of reports of submarine activity received from their coast watching service. They arranged for the broadening of reports by their Air observation Corps of aircraft sighted over or approaching Southern Irish territory. (This does not include our aircraft using the corridor referred to in (b) above.) They arranged for the extinction of trade and business lighting in coastal towns where such lighting was alleged to afford a useful landmark for German aircraft. They have continued to supply us with meteorological reports. They have agreed to the use by our ships and aircraft of two wireless direction-finding stations at Malin Head. They have supplied particulars of German crashed aircraft and personnel crashed or washed ashore or arrested on land. They arranged for staff talks on the question of co-operation against a possible German invasion of Southern Ireland, and close contact has since been maintained between the respective military authorities. They continue to intern all German fighting personnel reaching Southern Ireland. On the other hand, though after protracted negotiations, Allied service personnel are now allowed to depart freely and full assistance is given in recovering damaged aircraft. Recently, in connection with the establishment of prisoner of war camps in Northern Ireland, they have agreed to return or at least intern any German prisoners who may escape from Northern Ireland across the border to Southern Ireland. They have throughout offered no objection to the departure from Southern Ireland of persons wishing to serve in the United Kingdom Forces nor to the journey on leave of such persons to and from Southern Ireland (in plain clothes). They have continued to exchange information with our security authorities regarding all aliens (including Germans) in Southern Ireland. They have (within the last few days) agreed to our establishing a Radar station in Southern Ireland for use against the latest form of submarine activity."
I know what you're saying. That Ireland fought for independence despite the economic cost, and that the Leave vote was an example of the same thing.
I'm also pointing out that countries such as Ireland (and some other ones in Europe) who *literally* were controlled by other countries in their recent history don't have a problem with EU membership, indeed they quite like it, because they aren't actually controlled by a "foreign power", they *are* independent.
If you want to argue that leaving the EU is good, then fine. But the day we leave the EU is not some sort of "Independence Day".
A fast track for Irish goods should be perfectly viable for Eurostar and the ferry companies. As long as the cargo is sealed in Ireland and the seal on the lorry is intact on arrival at Dover etc, no customs are required at the French border. Rather like a bonded warehouse or freeport, goods in transit could be excluded by HRMC, who surely have plenty of other work to get on with in a No Deal scenario.
I can certainly see the political desire to fast track Irish exports through Dover.
Or perhaps I can't.
The political gold from 'sticking it to the Irish' will be immense if we end up with no deal in no small part due to Varadker.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
A fast track for Irish goods should be perfectly viable for Eurostar and the ferry companies. As long as the cargo is sealed in Ireland and the seal on the lorry is intact on arrival at Dover etc, no customs are required at the French border. Rather like a bonded warehouse or freeport, goods in transit could be excluded by HRMC, who surely have plenty of other work to get on with in a No Deal scenario.
I can certainly see the political desire to fast track Irish exports through Dover.
Or perhaps I can't.
The political gold from 'sticking it to the Irish' will be immense if we end up with no deal in no small part due to Varadker.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
On that logic the English-speaking US invasion of Vietnam was down to the English.
If America, during the Vietnam War, was ruled by a small and ethnically English elite, who felt their true home was England and not America, and who spoke an English language foreign to most Americans, well then yes you would kinda have a point. Seeing as this is total nonsense, you don't. Shut up.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Or they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
EEA/EFTA I would say, as a LD ‘registered supporter’ but it all depends on what happens next.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
What are you on about?
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
I think the point he was making was that Ireland made itself poorer than it would have otherwise been by choosing to become independent from the UK, and that this lasted for around 80 years until the late 1990s. They did this because they decided that being independent was more important than the economic considerations.
Precisely what I meant.
Most Irish people were not well off as a result of British rule. Quite the opposite in fact. Worth learning something about Irish history before opining on it.
Another one ( and you of all people!!!) not reading what I wrote. I never said they were well off. It’s relative wealth I referred to. They were poor. They remained poorer than they would have been for many years. They voted to become independent despite that. Fair enough I said.
But......
Christ mention “Ireland” and it’s a trigger fest, isn’t it? Out they crawl from the woodwork ready to defend Erin’s Isle, at the drop of a hat, willy nilly and never mind what anyone actually said.
A fast track for Irish goods should be perfectly viable for Eurostar and the ferry companies. As long as the cargo is sealed in Ireland and the seal on the lorry is intact on arrival at Dover etc, no customs are required at the French border. Rather like a bonded warehouse or freeport, goods in transit could be excluded by HRMC, who surely have plenty of other work to get on with in a No Deal scenario.
I can certainly see the political desire to fast track Irish exports through Dover.
Or perhaps I can't.
The political gold from 'sticking it to the Irish' will be immense if we end up with no deal in no small part due to Varadker.
Purely a matter of fact. The ferry companies cannot embark shipments unless customs compliant. Sealed goods from Ireland are not an issue, so will be the most profitable and simplest for the companies.
I actually the think the queues of lorries will be minimal, as most will not set off in the first place.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
So the French trying to land in Bantry Bay in 1797, or the Germans accidentally bombing Ireland 1939/45 were fictional?
Do you know why the French were trying to land in Ireland in 1797?
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
So the French trying to land in Bantry Bay in 1797, or the Germans accidentally bombing Ireland 1939/45 were fictional?
Trivial or accidental. Cromwell, King Billy, the 98 rising, the 16 rising and the Black and Tans however were not.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Or they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
EEA/EFTA I would say, as a LD ‘registered supporter’ but it all depends on what happens next.
Events...
Yes, I expect so, with a view to rejoining.
It would be funny to see @Richard_Tyndall and similar Brexiteers voting LD, but they won't be the only ones.
I know what you're saying. That Ireland fought for independence despite the economic cost, and that the Leave vote was an example of the same thing.
I'm also pointing out that countries such as Ireland (and some other ones in Europe) who *literally* were controlled by other countries in their recent history don't have a problem with EU membership, indeed they quite like it, because they aren't actually controlled by a "foreign power", they *are* independent.
If you want to argue that leaving the EU is good, then fine. But the day we leave the EU is not some sort of "Independence Day".
In Latvia, they have a Museum of the Occupation, which deals with first the Nazi and then the Soviet occupation of the country. It dates the end of occupation as 1990, which I find shockingly recent.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
On that logic the English-speaking US invasion of Vietnam was down to the English.
If America, during the Vietnam War, was ruled by a small and ethnically English elite, who felt their true home was England and not America, and who spoke an English language foreign to most Americans, well then yes you would kinda have a point. Seeing as this is total nonsense, you don't. Shut up.
The Normans weren’t ethnically French. They were Vikings from the North, hence the name. Shut up yourself. Naah nah nah naah nah.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
Do you see the Tories as FF then? Bearing in mind we haven't had a Civil War?
Post-Brexit it would seem to me that the LD's supporting fully rejoining the EU, with no opt outs, would be the electorally sensible thing to do.
I would guess the floor of support for rejoining will be quite a bit higher than their previous ceiling in GE's so they could be net beneficiaries from that approach.
The Tories will never again support rejoining so for those who feel strongly negative about the EU they will have their home along with those who want ot forget the whole thing and go back to voting on the basis of their values, families and communities.
I'm not sure where it leaves Labour post-Brexit, they will have to make a decision one way or another but there are severe penalties either way.
We’re going to become like Ukraine aren’t we with half fhe country pulling in the US direction and the other pulling in the EU direction and its the millennials who will have to suffer the stagnation that follows, again.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
Do you see the Tories as FF then?
Interesting question. Genuinely not sure. Under Boris I think they might be more FF, yes. But I guess we won't know for a decade?
The parallels are truly fascinating, though - and educational. Let's just hope our "War of Independence" remains constitutional, bloodless, and velvety.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
Do you see the Tories as FF then?
Interesting question. Genuinely not sure. Under Boris I think they might be more FF, yes. But I guess we won't know for a decade?
The parallels are truly fascinating, though - and educational. Let's just hope our "War of Independence" remains constitutional, bloodless, and velvety.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
Do you see the Tories as FF then?
Interesting question. Genuinely not sure. Under Boris I think they might be more FF, yes. But I guess we won't know for a decade?
The parallels are truly fascinating, though - and educational. Let's just hope our "War of Independence" remains constitutional, bloodless, and velvety.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
Post-Brexit it would seem to me that the LD's supporting fully rejoining the EU, with no opt outs, would be the electorally sensible thing to do.
I would guess the floor of support for rejoining will be quite a bit higher than their previous ceiling in GE's so they could be net beneficiaries from that approach.
The Tories will never again support rejoining so for those who feel strongly negative about the EU they will have their home along with those who want ot forget the whole thing and go back to voting on the basis of their values, families and communities.
I'm not sure where it leaves Labour post-Brexit, they will have to make a decision one way or another but there are severe penalties either way.
The EU have said we would have to give up our rebates to rejoin but not that we would have to join the Euro as yet
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
We are not responsible for the crimes of our forefathers no but we must be wary of the symbolism of Britain once again treating Ireland as an inferior lesser nation.
The Brexiteer screams about Ireland being acceptable collateral damage are just that.
“Give us what we want with no compromises or you will suffer pain and deserve it”
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
And, as I have said before, the LDs are not centre left.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I sympathise. I would like a sane and capable Labour party, to oppose the flailing Tories, and to help heal the Union.
But how does that happen? Your party has been captured. Even if Corbyn goes (following an election defeat?) his hideous friends will whip the membership into voting for another nutter,
Your best bet is Thornberry. I can see her slowly steering the party back to a vaguely sensible position, while keeping the membership just about on board. Maybe. After we Brexit.
Until Brexit is sorted (or revoked), Labour are terminally hobbled.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
And, as I have said before, the LDs are not centre left.
They are (bar the Orange book) just Labour is hard left
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
We are not responsible for the crimes of our forefathers no but we must be wary of the symbolism of Britain once again treating Ireland as an inferior lesser nation.
The Brexiteer screams about Ireland being acceptable collateral damage are just that.
“Give us what we want with no compromises or you will suffer pain and deserve it”
Final comment: Yes, I totally agree.
Britain needs to be super-sensitive when it comes to Ireland. Because of our troubled history. Remarks like those of Priti Patel - re Ireland, Brexit, and "food shortages" - made me cringe, very deeply. Stupid stupid stupid.
Ireland is our friend, cousin, neighbour, everything. They are us, basically.
Again, this whole issue needs assured statesmen and stateswomen, whereas lately we have had crap middle managers of a new Aldi store near Bracknell. Pff!
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The LibDems are centre - right Tory Little Helpers.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The LibDems are centre - right Tory Little Helpers.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
It could be if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour, Labour is reduced to its core base of inner cities like Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham, Manchester and Liverpool and the poorer parts of London as it was in the European Parliament elections, while everywhere else the LDs become the main centre left alternative to the Tories
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The LibDems are centre - right Tory Little Helpers.
Throughout the 19th century and until the 1920s the Liberals were the main alternative to the Tories, we could return to that
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
And the Tories got 9%.
The Tories are back to over 30% though with Boris and winning back Brexit Party voters, Labour are not winning back as many LD voters
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
And the Tories got 9%.
The Tories are back to over 30% though with Boris and winning back Brexit Party voters, Labour are not winning back as many LD voters
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
So those stupid weak Irish should be grateful they have big strong Britain looking after them should they?
Drop the word stupid and yes. The Irish knew full well what they were doing freeloading off us for the last 80 years.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
And the Tories got 9%.
The Tories are back to over 30% though with Boris and winning back Brexit Party voters, Labour are not winning back as many LD voters
But Labour are back to 27%/28%.
Labour are only on 22% with Yougov with the LDs on 21% and Yougov were the most accurate pollster in the European Parliament elections
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
So those stupid weak Irish should be grateful they have big strong Britain looking after them should they?
Drop the word stupid and yes. The Irish knew full well what they were doing freeloading off us for the last 80 years.
Could you be more offensive if you tried? But maybe you are trying.
We’re going to become like Ukraine aren’t we with half fhe country pulling in the US direction and the other pulling in the EU direction and its the millennials who will have to suffer the stagnation that follows, again.
Everyone needs to calm down. We can carry on being the UK we know and love, with influences from both Europe and the USA.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
I know what you're saying. That Ireland fought for independence despite the economic cost, and that the Leave vote was an example of the same thing.
I'm also pointing out that countries such as Ireland (and some other ones in Europe) who *literally* were controlled by other countries in their recent history don't have a problem with EU membership, indeed they quite like it, because they aren't actually controlled by a "foreign power", they *are* independent.
If you want to argue that leaving the EU is good, then fine. But the day we leave the EU is not some sort of "Independence Day".
Or because having been dependent upon one country in the past being dependent upon the EU is now easier.
However we are different. We were never dependent. For us being independent is normal.
I know what you're saying. That Ireland fought for independence despite the economic cost, and that the Leave vote was an example of the same thing.
I'm also pointing out that countries such as Ireland (and some other ones in Europe) who *literally* were controlled by other countries in their recent history don't have a problem with EU membership, indeed they quite like it, because they aren't actually controlled by a "foreign power", they *are* independent.
If you want to argue that leaving the EU is good, then fine. But the day we leave the EU is not some sort of "Independence Day".
Or because having been dependent upon one country in the past being dependent upon the EU is now easier.
However we are different. We were never dependent. For us being independent is normal.
What does that even mean? The Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. Britain joined the EEC in 1973. The Maastricht Treaty was signed in February 1992 - the same month I was born.
I have lived my entire life in the EU. So speak for yourself.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
So those stupid weak Irish should be grateful they have big strong Britain looking after them should they?
Drop the word stupid and yes. The Irish knew full well what they were doing freeloading off us for the last 80 years.
Isn't it a bit less sinister than that? Small countries - like Ireland or Luxembourg or Malta or Singapore - lack geopolitical or military influence. But they gain from barely spending on their military.
There's nothing beyond cost/benefit analysis in their (or our) decision. Different choices for different circumstances.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
So those stupid weak Irish should be grateful they have big strong Britain looking after them should they?
Drop the word stupid and yes. The Irish knew full well what they were doing freeloading off us for the last 80 years.
Isn't it a bit less sinister than that? Small countries - like Ireland or Luxembourg or Malta or Singapore - lack geopolitical or military influence. But they gain from barely spending on their military.
There's nothing beyond cost/benefit analysis in their (or our) decision. Different choices for different circumstances.
Cost-benefit analysis to freeload is still freeloading. And the tax shenanigans are definitely even more immoral. They are basically colluding with multinationals to deprive their neighbours of tax revenue for a smaller payoff.
Isn't it a bit less sinister than that? Small countries - like Ireland or Luxembourg or Malta or Singapore - lack geopolitical or military influence. But they gain from barely spending on their military.
Point of order! The Singaporean military is actually pretty potent. For example, they have 100ish F15/F16s, and are going to buy the F35 also.
Not a single day goes by when the destruction wrought by Cameron's referendum doesn't get worse.
Not a single day goes by when the Remainer panic that we are really leaving doesn't get worse.
Yes. I'm triggered. I have liberal elitist tears streaming down my face. Ha, look at me suck it up.
Meanwhile, you are cheerleading a huge foreign policy win for Putin, a further dismantling of a rules-based international system of trade and security, an open goal for disaster capitalism and the dismantling of the European social model (and more specifically the NHS), with the prospects of a bit of disaster Stalinism in a context of fundamentally weakened constitutional controls when Buggins' turn comes round for the Momentum mob, and then perhaps a little light fascism for dessert.
If we leave with no deal on October 31st the number one priority for a Govt will be regularising our relationship with the EU. The whole projection of “short term disruption, medium/long term gain” is contingent on “disruption” only being short term. But this won’t happen by itself. No point in “bailing out” businesses with short term cash injections, if their basic trading positions don’t improve after a few months.
And yet most of the indications seem to be that the Government is doing very little thinking/planning for our relationship with the EU post exit. Indeed what we are hearing is that they are doing even less than was happening before Johnson became PM. All to send “messages” that we are serious about leaving. Fabulous assumptions that pre or post no deal the EU will come begging to us with new offers for us to consider. And which we will put no thought or effort into at all.
Isn't it a bit less sinister than that? Small countries - like Ireland or Luxembourg or Malta or Singapore - lack geopolitical or military influence. But they gain from barely spending on their military.
Point of order! The Singaporean military is actually pretty potent. For example, they have 100ish F15/F16s, and are going to buy the F35 also.
And they've got compulsory National Service (2 years), and bomb shelters in all apartment blocks. They've got substantially more in-flight refuelling and AWACS/Maritime patrol capability than the Luftwaffe for example. Navy's not too shabby either.
Anyone taking on Singapore would get a seriously bloody nose. Anyone taking on Ireland on the other hand....."will that be half a pint of Guinness, or the full pint you'll be having...?"
Sounds like he changes his mind on a daily basis. I suppose there’s an outside hope in all this that he really did believe all that “million to one” rubbish, and is actually genuinely horrified by the thought that he might be leading us into no deal catastrophe. Not quite clear how he thinks any sort of “deal” can be put together in the middle of a General Election campaign though...
Not a single day goes by when the destruction wrought by Cameron's referendum doesn't get worse.
Not a single day goes by when the Remainer panic that we are really leaving doesn't get worse.
Yes. I'm triggered. I have liberal elitist tears streaming down my face. Ha, look at me suck it up.
Meanwhile, you are cheerleading a huge foreign policy win for Putin, a further dismantling of a rules-based international system of trade and security, an open goal for disaster capitalism and the dismantling of the European social model (and more specifically the NHS), with the prospects of a bit of disaster Stalinism in a context of fundamentally weakened constitutional controls when Buggins' turn comes round for the Momentum mob, and then perhaps a little light fascism for dessert.
Well done you.
Thanks, but I couldn't have done it without 17.4m others....
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
I could see Chuka Umunna becoming PM in 5 to 10 years or so on a voteshare something like LD 35%, Tories 28%, Labour 18%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 7%.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
And the Tories got 9%.
So the propsect of PM Boris delivering Brexit has put on 22%.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
Post Brexit, what do the LDs stand for? Are they for Rejoin? With all the years and years of hassle and division that would entail? Or not? Their USP disappears.
Absolutely wrong. The LDs will become the Rejoin party, at once. Whereas Labour will still be crippled by the conflict of Leaver homelands versus Remainer votelands.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
As I have said before I think the next centre left government will be a LD one, not a Labour led one, unless Labour get rid of Corbynism which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The LibDems are centre - right Tory Little Helpers.
..from the party that is trying, in its own words, to bail out the Tories on Brexit!
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
I think No Great Patriotic Flounce is starting to look like value. Factor in the exchange rate issue and it's about 50/50. I think you get to 50% with a combination of
* Boris hastily reverse-ferrets, consistent with his justification for No Deal, namely that you have to *look like* you'll do it * As above but in response to some movement from the EU side which allows him to extend while claiming victory * Parliament constrains him - this sort-of blends into the previous ones, because doing this is partly a matter of Parliament doing things, but also a matter of Boris abiding by the constraints they create * GoNAfaE * VONC followed by Boris asking for the extension
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
The thing about this is that at this point pretty much everyone wants to talk up the probability of No Deal:
* Boris because it endears him to the BXP-curious * Remainers because they want everyone to be as horrified as they are * Everybody in the media, because No Deal is much more interesting to talk about than another extension
The thing about this is that at this point pretty much everyone wants to talk up the probability of No Deal:
* Boris because it endears him to the BXP-curious * Remainers because they want everyone to be as horrified as they are * Everybody in the media, because No Deal is much more interesting to talk about than another extension
Although a possible corollary is that everyone now wants it to happen, because they want to know if their predictions for the consequences are correct. Except perhaps Johnson, but he politically has the most to lose from it not happening.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic.
Re Marquee Mark's question about Vietnam, I'm not sure if it was serious? In Vietnam the war is known, with considerable justification, as the American War.
I haven't yet read Max Hastings' apparently excellent book, but I thoroughly recommend the outstanding Ken Burns Lynn Novick 10-part series The Vietnam War. It's rated 9.1 on imdb and deserves every digit of it. It begins, as it should, back well before the Americans committed 3.5 million troops to the region, 2.75 million of whom were in Vietnam. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1877514/?ref_=nv_sr_1?ref_=nv_sr_1
It's outstanding documentary making. Jaw-dropping partly because of its dispassionate portrayal with voices from all quarters. You won't have a problem with the word 'invasion' after you see it. There are far worse descriptions one could use.
I think No Great Patriotic Flounce is starting to look like value. Factor in the exchange rate issue and it's about 50/50. I think you get to 50% with a combination of
* Boris hastily reverse-ferrets, consistent with his justification for No Deal, namely that you have to *look like* you'll do it * As above but in response to some movement from the EU side which allows him to extend while claiming victory * Parliament constrains him - this sort-of blends into the previous ones, because doing this is partly a matter of Parliament doing things, but also a matter of Boris abiding by the constraints they create * GoNAfaE * VONC followed by Boris asking for the extension
Still a lot of denial going on and I'm minded to agree with those that think the betting market is dislocated with reality. Cummings hasn't deferred the surgeon's knife for the sort of nonsense you describe.
Unless a) Bercow, Grieve et al come up with something unexpected that blindsides the government, or b) the European negotiating position cracks at the last moment, it's a No deal Exit on 31/10. I don't give much odds to either a) or b), certainly not a combined 57%. But I live in a place where it's illegal to gamble.
Not a single day goes by when the destruction wrought by Cameron's referendum doesn't get worse.
That's quite correct. Britain's path will be its own, and it is quite possible we use this opportunity wisely.
There are major structural problems with the UK economy, such as an overreliance on consumption, consumer borrowing, the use of homes as a source of saving, our education system, a tax and benefits system that actively discourages work, and the like.
What we're getting is "be more optimistic" and a spending splurge. (Which will, of course, only make the UK economy more unbalanced.)
There are serious questions above and beyond Brexit, like how we pay for social care with an ageing population and worsening dependency ratios.
Yet I see no sign of seriousness. Or even awareness. I see a government - and an opposition - who think that promises and profligacy are the answer to every question.
This is the serious question facing us. Our structural balance is waaaaay out of alignment and because Parliament (and Theresa Mays horrendous inability to negotiate or indeed even understand that calling an unwanted election will make you unpopular) has blocked any prospect of an end to the Brexit scenario, we are left with two sides whose only positions are related to in/out. Each side believes that slinging imaginary money around will fix the issues and it simply won’t.
We have major crises in housing, social care, nhs, education and wages and the failure to do what was voted for in the referendum has caused our politicians to lose sight of it and all credibility in the eyes of the people.
People aren’t sick of Brexit. They are sick of politicians posturing over it and not dealing with the horrendous difficulties our voters face. That is why our parliament is unpopular. They see people who really don’t give a monkeys about them and, increasingly, are isolated from them. A political class who bear no relation to the people they are supposed to serve and frankly don’t like or listen to them are the ones destroying our democracy.
Unless a) Bercow, Grieve et al come up with something unexpected that blindsides the government, or b) the European negotiating position cracks at the last moment, it's a No deal Exit on 31/10. I don't give much odds to either a) or b), certainly not a combined 57%. But I live in a place where it's illegal to gamble.
You don't explain why you discount a lot of the possibilities, but in any case like I say the probabilities implied by this market are more like 50% than 57%. This is because a No Deal Pound is worth substantially less than a No No Deal Pound.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic. [...]
I would say removal of borders and free movement is at least as important part of what the EU is, as is free trade. There is neither total freedom of movement nor free trade, but both are real and much more developed than anywhere else in the world.
”One in five people are already hoarding food, drinks and medicine, spending an extra £380 each, according to a survey by the finance provider Premium Credit. The survey found that about 800,000 people have spent more than £1,000 building up stockpiles before the 31 October Brexit deadline.”
“Brexit-related stockpiling is also hitting cashflow, according to the report, with companies taking out credit to cover the cost of insurance and other fixed costs. Last week, the boss of Pets at Home revealed the business was hoarding pet food, and Domino’s Pizza said it has started stockpiling toppings.“
The thing about this is that at this point pretty much everyone wants to talk up the probability of No Deal:
* Boris because it endears him to the BXP-curious * Remainers because they want everyone to be as horrified as they are * Everybody in the media, because No Deal is much more interesting to talk about than another extension
I think there's something in this. On the other hand No Deal in reality is failure for the first two groups. For Johnson because he will be stuck in the mess and can't move on from Brexit. For Remainers obviously because they allowed the disaster to happen.
”One in five people are already hoarding food, drinks and medicine, spending an extra £380 each, according to a survey by the finance provider Premium Credit. The survey found that about 800,000 people have spent more than £1,000 building up stockpiles before the 31 October Brexit deadline.”
“Brexit-related stockpiling is also hitting cashflow, according to the report, with companies taking out credit to cover the cost of insurance and other fixed costs. Last week, the boss of Pets at Home revealed the business was hoarding pet food, and Domino’s Pizza said it has started stockpiling toppings.“
Bets against the pound have hit their highest level in more than two years as hedge funds, investors and other speculators lose confidence in the government’s ability to negotiate a Brexit deal.
Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here. Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus. The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate. Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support. But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic. [...]
I would say removal of borders and free movement is at least as important part of what the EU is, as is free trade. There is neither total freedom of movement nor free trade, but both are real and much more developed than anywhere else in the world.
I agree and I would go further. The idea of the EU as just a trading bloc has little currency outside the UK.
Schengen transforms how people think of borders within the EU. This affects people at the individual level: how they work, how they travel, how they live. It enables regions of adjoining countries to work together, to make broken regions into a coherent unitary area.
Ironically, three years of arguing about the Northern Irish border still hasn’t persuaded the British of the merits of minimal borders.
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Nah.....the later versions of the Spitfire (70 years ago) could fly faster, higher and climb more quickly.......but then it was a fighter, not a training aircraft (training for what? - ed.)
The trouble with Schengen is that it ends up outsourcing border control to the weakest EU member state across its 9,000 mile border.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
EU membership requires either Schengen or the CTA, and even No Dealers are not planning to scrap the latter, so rejoining will not alter that. We will stay in the CTA whatever. I see no desire to expand the EZ either. It is mostly the rebate at risk from rejoining.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.
The main Irish “fighter” - the PC-9M - looks like a stubby spitfire to me.
Nah.....the later versions of the Spitfire (70 years ago) could fly faster, higher and climb more quickly.......but then it was a fighter, not a training aircraft (training for what? - ed.)
To fight off Isle of Man ! They also have fire engines and ambulances.
Comments
Especially when half the UK didn't want it in the first place.
So fucking what? Like that outweighs staying neutral in World War 2 and saying “ we are sorry Herr Hitler topped himself”.
Get a grip. Risible Bollocks.
"the Anglo-Norman lords continued to invade Irish kingdoms and they attacked the Normans in turn. In 1177, Henry adopted a new policy. He declared his son John to be "Lord of Ireland" (i.e. of the whole country) and authorized the Norman lords to conquer more land. The territory they held became the Lordship of Ireland and formed part of the Angevin Empire."
THE ANGEVIN EMPIRE
Hint: that's not Angela in Swindon.
"They agreed to our use of Lough Foyle for naval and air purposes. The ownership of the Lough is disputed, but the Southern Irish authorities are tacitly not pressing their claim in present conditions and are also ignoring any flying by our aircraft over the Donegal shore of the Lough, which is necessary in certain wind conditions to enable flying boats to take off the Lough.
They have agreed to use by our aircraft based on Lough Erne of a corridor over Southern Irish territory and territorial waters for the purpose of flying out to the Atlantic.
They have arranged for the immediate transmission to the United Kingdom Representative's Office in Dublin of reports of submarine activity received from their coast watching service.
They arranged for the broadening of reports by their Air observation Corps of aircraft sighted over or approaching Southern Irish territory. (This does not include our aircraft using the corridor referred to in (b) above.)
They arranged for the extinction of trade and business lighting in coastal towns where such lighting was alleged to afford a useful landmark for German aircraft.
They have continued to supply us with meteorological reports.
They have agreed to the use by our ships and aircraft of two wireless direction-finding stations at Malin Head.
They have supplied particulars of German crashed aircraft and personnel crashed or washed ashore or arrested on land.
They arranged for staff talks on the question of co-operation against a possible German invasion of Southern Ireland, and close contact has since been maintained between the respective military authorities.
They continue to intern all German fighting personnel reaching Southern Ireland. On the other hand, though after protracted negotiations, Allied service personnel are now allowed to depart freely and full assistance is given in recovering damaged aircraft.
Recently, in connection with the establishment of prisoner of war camps in Northern Ireland, they have agreed to return or at least intern any German prisoners who may escape from Northern Ireland across the border to Southern Ireland.
They have throughout offered no objection to the departure from Southern Ireland of persons wishing to serve in the United Kingdom Forces nor to the journey on leave of such persons to and from Southern Ireland (in plain clothes).
They have continued to exchange information with our security authorities regarding all aliens (including Germans) in Southern Ireland.
They have (within the last few days) agreed to our establishing a Radar station in Southern Ireland for use against the latest form of submarine activity."
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/08/detroit-michigan-man-deported-died-iraq-diabetic-homeless.html
I'm also pointing out that countries such as Ireland (and some other ones in Europe) who *literally* were controlled by other countries in their recent history don't have a problem with EU membership, indeed they quite like it, because they aren't actually controlled by a "foreign power", they *are* independent.
If you want to argue that leaving the EU is good, then fine. But the day we leave the EU is not some sort of "Independence Day".
Or perhaps I can't.
The political gold from 'sticking it to the Irish' will be immense if we end up with no deal in no small part due to Varadker.
Their USP disappears.
Events...
But......
Christ mention “Ireland” and it’s a trigger fest, isn’t it? Out they crawl from the woodwork ready to defend Erin’s Isle, at the drop of a hat, willy nilly and never mind what anyone actually said.
I actually the think the queues of lorries will be minimal, as most will not set off in the first place.
I can see the LDs prospering mightily, post-Brexit, if they have any sense (and Swinson seems quite canny and is also quite telegenic)
Brexit is gonna change British politics forever, just as indyref did in Scotland. We will not go back to status quo ante, for a generation, if ever. The issue of Brexit will probably fade, but the new divides will abide.
Once again, post Civil War Ireland is a good example. The two main Irish parties - FF and FG - are deeply rooted in the politics of Irish independence, even tho the issue of independence, itself, is long forgotten, and a century past.
It would be funny to see @Richard_Tyndall and similar Brexiteers voting LD, but they won't be the only ones.
Bearing in mind we haven't had a Civil War?
I would guess the floor of support for rejoining will be quite a bit higher than their previous ceiling in GE's so they could be net beneficiaries from that approach.
The Tories will never again support rejoining so for those who feel strongly negative about the EU they will have their home along with those who want ot forget the whole thing and go back to voting on the basis of their values, families and communities.
I'm not sure where it leaves Labour post-Brexit, they will have to make a decision one way or another but there are severe penalties either way.
The parallels are truly fascinating, though - and educational. Let's just hope our "War of Independence" remains constitutional, bloodless, and velvety.
All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.
Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.
After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus.
The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate.
Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support.
But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.
The Brexiteer screams about Ireland being acceptable collateral damage are just that.
“Give us what we want with no compromises or you will suffer pain and deserve it”
But how does that happen? Your party has been captured. Even if Corbyn goes (following an election defeat?) his hideous friends will whip the membership into voting for another nutter,
Your best bet is Thornberry. I can see her slowly steering the party back to a vaguely sensible position, while keeping the membership just about on board. Maybe. After we Brexit.
Until Brexit is sorted (or revoked), Labour are terminally hobbled.
And with that happy thort, goodnight all.
Remember in the European elections Labour only got 14% and the LDs got 20%
Britain needs to be super-sensitive when it comes to Ireland. Because of our troubled history. Remarks like those of Priti Patel - re Ireland, Brexit, and "food shortages" - made me cringe, very deeply. Stupid stupid stupid.
Ireland is our friend, cousin, neighbour, everything. They are us, basically.
Again, this whole issue needs assured statesmen and stateswomen, whereas lately we have had crap middle managers of a new Aldi store near Bracknell. Pff!
Night night.
However we are different. We were never dependent. For us being independent is normal.
I have lived my entire life in the EU. So speak for yourself.
There's nothing beyond cost/benefit analysis in their (or our) decision. Different choices for different circumstances.
Meanwhile, you are cheerleading a huge foreign policy win for Putin, a further dismantling of a rules-based international system of trade and security, an open goal for disaster capitalism and the dismantling of the European social model (and more specifically the NHS), with the prospects of a bit of disaster Stalinism in a context of fundamentally weakened constitutional controls when Buggins' turn comes round for the Momentum mob, and then perhaps a little light fascism for dessert.
Well done you.
And yet most of the indications seem to be that the Government is doing very little thinking/planning for our relationship with the EU post exit. Indeed what we are hearing is that they are doing even less than was happening before Johnson became PM. All to send “messages” that we are serious about leaving. Fabulous assumptions that pre or post no deal the EU will come begging to us with new offers for us to consider. And which we will put no thought or effort into at all.
We really are up sh*t creek.
Anyone taking on Singapore would get a seriously bloody nose. Anyone taking on Ireland on the other hand....."will that be half a pint of Guinness, or the full pint you'll be having...?"
Sounds like he changes his mind on a daily basis. I suppose there’s an outside hope in all this that he really did believe all that “million to one” rubbish, and is actually genuinely horrified by the thought that he might be leading us into no deal catastrophe. Not quite clear how he thinks any sort of “deal” can be put together in the middle of a General Election campaign though...
Crikey!
* Boris hastily reverse-ferrets, consistent with his justification for No Deal, namely that you have to *look like* you'll do it
* As above but in response to some movement from the EU side which allows him to extend while claiming victory
* Parliament constrains him - this sort-of blends into the previous ones, because doing this is partly a matter of Parliament doing things, but also a matter of Boris abiding by the constraints they create
* GoNAfaE
* VONC followed by Boris asking for the extension
* Boris because it endears him to the BXP-curious
* Remainers because they want everyone to be as horrified as they are
* Everybody in the media, because No Deal is much more interesting to talk about than another extension
Re Marquee Mark's question about Vietnam, I'm not sure if it was serious? In Vietnam the war is known, with considerable justification, as the American War.
I haven't yet read Max Hastings' apparently excellent book, but I thoroughly recommend the outstanding Ken Burns Lynn Novick 10-part series The Vietnam War. It's rated 9.1 on imdb and deserves every digit of it. It begins, as it should, back well before the Americans committed 3.5 million troops to the region, 2.75 million of whom were in Vietnam.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1877514/?ref_=nv_sr_1?ref_=nv_sr_1
It's outstanding documentary making. Jaw-dropping partly because of its dispassionate portrayal with voices from all quarters. You won't have a problem with the word 'invasion' after you see it. There are far worse descriptions one could use.
Unless a) Bercow, Grieve et al come up with something unexpected that blindsides the government, or b) the European negotiating position cracks at the last moment, it's a No deal Exit on 31/10. I don't give much odds to either a) or b), certainly not a combined 57%. But I live in a place where it's illegal to gamble.
I wonder how Conservative MPs are feeling with their choice. And how the EU thinks things will go.
“Brexit-related stockpiling is also hitting cashflow, according to the report, with companies taking out credit to cover the cost of insurance and other fixed costs. Last week, the boss of Pets at Home revealed the business was hoarding pet food, and Domino’s Pizza said it has started stockpiling toppings.“
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/12/britons-have-spent-4bn-stockpiling-goods-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit
Nooo!!!! there goes the one possible advantage of a no-deal Brexit.
https://twitter.com/gavinsblog/status/1160839549565771776?s=20
The Times
Schengen transforms how people think of borders within the EU. This affects people at the individual level: how they work, how they travel, how they live. It enables regions of adjoining countries to work together, to make broken regions into a coherent unitary area.
Ironically, three years of arguing about the Northern Irish border still hasn’t persuaded the British of the merits of minimal borders.
Why even bother? It would struggle to deal with seagulls.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1161158254208139264?s=21
I think the EU are expecting No Deal, and are much better prepared. There will be considerable EU aid for Ireland.
Given we’re a very attractive destination for migration joining it seems crazy to me.
It makes perfectly practical sense to be outside it given we’re an island with our own sea border.
The other MPs supported other candidates. They didn't vote against Johnson. There was no such option.
I would not expect rejoining after No Deal to be a quick process. The EU doesn't want to be pissed around again, but a Norway plus model to be quicker to implement as part of accession talks.