Seems that the mps need to take care in trying to stop brexit as Boris will clearly make a GE the people v the remainer HOC and unelected HOL
An early vonc could play straight into Boris's hand
Indeed these poll findings, if they solidify in other polls, could see many mps not wanting to be seen supporting no brexit
I should be very careful about reading too much into opinion polls commisioned for Brexit supporting newspapers! The Brexit supporting media is in full boosting Johnson mode, they are not following public opinion but trying to lead it into No Deal Brexit and supporting Johnson in the 'forthcoming election'.
Johnson is in the business of convincing everyone that he is heading for no deal in the hope that the EU will blink. He's doing a pretty good job at the moment, partly because his parliamentary opponents are quiet at the moment so he has the field to himself. But if the EU does not blink things will be much more difficult for him in a few weeks' time.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
They DO have the inclination and the desire to blink. As individual nations.They need a deal, as Europe teeters on the edge of recession, and another eurozone crisis. They need a good, mutually beneficial deal. Why die on a hill for a backstop they don't actually like!?
The problem is the EU as a PROJECT cannot sustain a decent deal. as it shows it maybe profits a nation to quit the EU.
A club which can only exist by menacing members who want to leave is not fit for purpose. Hence, Brexit. The appalling difficulty of Brexit proves the absolute necessity of Brexit.
The EU negotiated a deal with the British government as required under Article 50. The deal includes a mechanism for keeping the Irish border open as required by an international treaty signed by the UK and Ireland, an EU member state. The British Parliament rejected the deal because some members of the governing coalition objected to that mechanism, despite offering no workable alternative. What part of that sequence of events constitutes "menacing" by the EU? Face it, the deal failed for the same reason that every aspect of Brexit has either failed already or is about to fail - because it is an ill thought out project pedalled by liars, fools and cynical opportunists. Now some of its proponents are thrashing around, desperate to find somebody else to blame. It doesn't fool anybody.
@stodge people genuinely believe that if a ‘no deal’ Brexit happens Brexit will be over and everything will continue to go on just as it is now.
The level of ignorance is astonishing.
The Brexit supporting media are driving the public toward the cliff edge. Until the Brexit supporting media stop their propoganda people will be led and taken for fools...
Or maybe we actually want to leave? If only a proper vote had been carried out. Oh it has....
I have observed politics long enough to see exactly what is going on. The people and political party change but the way the media operate remains the same. The Brexit supporting media are trying everything in an attempt to lead public opinion into supporting No Deal. Some of us do not fall for BS propogated at the moment and wonder how people can be so guilible...
Maybe some of us have been uneasy about the whole thing for as long as we can remember but put up with it. But then a Rubicon was crossed ( Lisbon for me sans referendum) after which we believe that leave is existential. Again some of us were prepared to do a “Michael Collins” and do it in stages, compromise and accept May’s deal and go from there. But then the likes of Grieve and others decided to use every arcane trick they could find in ancient scrolls to deny the biggest vote ever held in this country. So I have been forced from my compromise position by these antics to chose: stay or no deal. So it’s no deal.
It doesn't have much to do with the newspapers, which are declining massively in influence. Lots of people don't read them. They don't control the agenda. Maybe the poll just represents the fact that a lot of people are actually happy to leave with no deal. Maybe they don't think a deal is important. The reality is that politicians and the establishment have lost control. Boris is attempting to take back control. But to do so he is pushed in to increasingly absurd and dangerous positions.
I think if Johnson can somehow engineer a May type deal that's his best chance. Faragists will howl, but he can claim he did deliver Brexit and then bank the transition period of minimum change. No Deal will be very unstable and will go on forever. A fatal combination I suspect.
Surely if it goes on for ever then by definition it is stable?
Only in the sense that Iraq in the ten years following the invasion was "stable". The chaos certainly went on for a long time.
As 10% think no deal means no change, it's very likely more than another 10% think 'proroguing' is nothing irregular. Who's heard of 'proroguing' ? Another sub-poll along the lines of the 'no-deal' ones would clarify the situation to probably yield similar results.
The momentum for no-deal certainly isn't unstoppable, because Johnson probably has at most 21 days before a VONC or parliamentary delaying strategy, with either resulting in some type of crisis, constitutional or otherwise.
Not a single day goes by when the destruction wrought by Cameron's referendum doesn't get worse.
Not a single day goes by when the Remainer panic that we are really leaving doesn't get worse.
Every day that goes by makes actually leaving less likely. Leavers should have backed May's deal when they had the chance.
You really aren't reading the runes, are you?
We are out. Gone. Cheerio, EU.
Yes. We are. That's my reading. We're OUT.
Assume Brace Position.
Mine too. The momentum behind October 31 is now becoming irresistible. The question arises what will be the reaction come November? My guess is there will be plenty surprised not everything is the same. And plenty surprised that there is still much to do.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
Thatcher didn’t smash the Unions and free us from they tyranny and open up the economy overnight either.
Yes it will take years to adjust - and we need leaders who will do a great job of powering the economy - not dull uninspiring managerial Phil Hammond types.
As 10% think no deal means no change, it's very likely more than another 10% think 'proroguing' is nothing irregular. Who's heard of 'progroging; ?
The momentum for no-deal certainly isn't unstoppable, because Johnson probably has at most 21 days before a VONC or parliamentary delaying strategy, with either producing some sort of crisis, constitutional or otherwise.
I don’t think there will be a successful VONC. Labour making sure the Tories own this project for the sake of the party not the country.
Seems that the mps need to take care in trying to stop brexit as Boris will clearly make a GE the people v the remainer HOC and unelected HOL
An early vonc could play straight into Boris's hand
Indeed these poll findings, if they solidify in other polls, could see many mps not wanting to be seen supporting no brexit
I should be very careful about reading too much into opinion polls commisioned for Brexit supporting newspapers! The Brexit supporting media is in full boosting Johnson mode, they are not following public opinion but trying to lead it into No Deal Brexit and supporting Johnson in the 'forthcoming election'.
Johnson is in the business of convincing everyone that he is heading for no deal in the hope that the EU will blink. He's doing a pretty good job at the moment, partly because his parliamentary opponents are quiet at the moment so he has the field to himself. But if the EU does not blink things will be much more difficult for him in a few weeks' time.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
They DO have the inclination and the desire to blink. As individual nations.They need a deal, as Europe teeters on the edge of recession, and another eurozone crisis. They need a good, mutually beneficial deal. Why die on a hill for a backstop they don't actually like!?
The problem is the EU as a PROJECT cannot sustain a decent deal. as it shows it maybe profits a nation to quit the EU.
A club which can only exist by menacing members who want to leave is not fit for purpose. Hence, Brexit. The appalling difficulty of Brexit proves the absolute necessity of Brexit.
In what way were we "menaced"? You must have a shockingly low menace threshold.
Because they actually said it, with menaces, you halfwit.
Michel Barnier, in 2016, in Le Point (in French, but translated for you):
“I shall have succeeded in my task if the final deal is so hard on the British that they’ll end up preferring to stay"
That's hardly assault with a deadly weapon, is it? Opponent in negotiation wants to win shock. Better have industrial quantities of lube ready when you assume the position for the good old US of A then. If you are menaced by that.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Not a single day goes by when the destruction wrought by Cameron's referendum doesn't get worse.
Not a single day goes by when the Remainer panic that we are really leaving doesn't get worse.
Every day that goes by makes actually leaving less likely. Leavers should have backed May's deal when they had the chance.
You really aren't reading the runes, are you?
We are out. Gone. Cheerio, EU.
Yes. We are. That's my reading. We're OUT.
Assume Brace Position.
Mine too. The momentum behind October 31 is now becoming irresistible. The question arises what will be the reaction come November? My guess is there will be plenty surprised not everything is the same. And plenty surprised that there is still much to do.
Yep. Agreed.
I think Hard Brexit will be surprisingly painless short term, surprisingly painful medium term, and then it will be seen as inevitable and no-big-deal in the long term (10 years plus);
Who will benefit from that, politically, I really do not know. The EU will take a reputational hammering, for sure. Losing arguably its most influential member? Bad.
What a fuck up by a generation of idiot politicians, on both sides of the Channel.
I think we'll rediscover that nations don't have friends, they have interests. Which might come as a nasty surprise, especially in dealings with the Americans and the Chinese.
But a decade from now? It will largely be forgotten. Unless, of course, we manage to get ourselves in a nasty spiral of revolution and counter-revolution. In which case, it may all be exceptionally shit.
This is where I think you underestimate Boris, and the power of capitalist vigour.
Boris aims to copy Reagan: be tough on crime, carry a big stick, yet be fiscally generous, so as to but pump prime the economy - and all of it smothered in optimism and tax cuts. It could work. It worked for Reagan, who made America a richer and happier place.
Tax cuts can be amazingly energizing, very quickly.
The problem for Boris is the short term horrors of Brexit. If he can somehow get beyond that, he has a chance of spaffing in the face of national pessimism.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
I don't think so, and I understand EU politics well. But we'll soon know. I will say on the UK side that Leavers who I know are absolutely not up for compromise of any sort at this stage, whereas Remainers are still stroking their beards and pondering what sort of roadblocks they might be willing to put up.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
That will be political gold to the Tories.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
The momentum for no-deal certainly isn't unstoppable ...
I'm afraid nothing about this business is certain. But it does seem that a lot of people have completely taken leave of their senses, which doesn't make me hopeful that there will be any sane resolution.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
Isn't the risk cross-border trade, and trade that is routed from the EU through the UK? That hasn't been affected at all at the moment, whereas business investment in the UK has already dropped through the floor. I suspect things would change quite significantly in the event of no-deal.
In truth we all have no idea what will happen years from now. Maybe Brexit will be a massive success in the end and all us Remainers will pretend we supported it all along. Or maybe it will be a complete disaster and in ten years we'll be in the Euro.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
To be honest I’d prefer if the Irish didn’t use us as a free land bridge from their low tax low wage economy with their polluting trucks.
What else they do is a matter for them - as long as they dont return to harbouring and appeasing murderous terrorists.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
That will be political gold to the Tories.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
Well then I must be a quisling, coward, and a traitor. Nice.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
That will be political gold to the Tories.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
Theresa May similarly thought that the Brexiter wing of the Tory party represented the entire 'British psyche' and similarly went astray. Another wing of the British psyche is about to put up about a dozen parliamentary roadblocks in the way of this nationalist paradise.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
Isn't the risk cross-border trade, and trade that is routed from the EU through the UK? That hasn't been affected at all at the moment, whereas business investment in the UK has already dropped through the floor. I suspect things would change quite significantly in the event of no-deal.
Not if the UK values WTO membership. Impeding transit traffic is a hostile act.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
He is correct that Brexit was never about economics. It is about identity, and that is why the divisions will take decades to heal.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
To be honest I’d prefer if the Irish didn’t use us as a free land bridge from their low tax low wage economy with their polluting trucks.
What else they do is a matter for them - as long as they dont return to harbouring and appeasing murderous terrorists.
Don’t Ireland have a higher average salary than the UK?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
Seriously - what have the Irish ever done for the Uk ? With friends like these who needs enemies.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
That will be political gold to the Tories.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
Well then I must be a quisling, coward, and a traitor. Nice.
Indeed. About to get everything they want, then go looking for more bloody aggro. They are mystified why the country hasn't "come together". Must be that echo chamber thingy.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
When Christmas arrives and it’s obvious we still have 5+ years of negotiations to go through with an EU who is saying no to everything the reactions are going to be great
That will be political gold to the Tories.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
Who knows how stupid people can be? My calibration keeps changing.
I still remain hopeful that the lying bastards betting on the stupidity of the electorate will eventually go too far, and get the comeuppance they so richly deserve.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
Irish airspace is sovereign and indeed state flights from the RoI are subject to the same 'interest' as others from countries which are not potentially adversarial.
However Dura Ace (whoever he is) is correct in as much as the UK ADR by dint of geography provides a QRA buffer for the RoI...SWAPPS aside.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
What are you on about?
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
@stodge people genuinely believe that if a ‘no deal’ Brexit happens Brexit will be over and everything will continue to go on just as it is now.
The level of ignorance is astonishing.
The Brexit supporting media are driving the public toward the cliff edge. Until the Brexit supporting media stop their propoganda people will be led and taken for fools...
Or maybe we actually want to leave? If only a proper vote had been carried out. Oh it has....
I have observed politics long enough to see exactly what is going on. The people and political party change but the way the media operate remains the same. The Brexit supporting media are trying everything in an attempt to lead public opinion into supporting No Deal. Some of us do not fall for BS propogated at the moment and wonder how people can be so guilible...
Maybe some of us have been uneasy about the whole thing for as long as we can remember but put up with it. But then a Rubicon was crossed ( Lisbon for me sans referendum) after which we believe that leave is existential. Again some of us were prepared to do a “Michael Collins” and do it in stages, compromise and accept May’s deal and go from there. But then the likes of Grieve and others decided to use every arcane trick they could find in ancient scrolls to deny the biggest vote ever held in this country. So I have been forced from my compromise position by these antics to chose: stay or no deal. So it’s no deal.
It doesn't have much to do with the newspapers, which are declining massively in influence. Lots of people don't read them. They don't control the agenda. Maybe the poll just represents the fact that a lot of people are actually happy to leave with no deal. Maybe they don't think a deal is important. The reality is that politicians and the establishment have lost control. Boris is attempting to take back control. But to do so he is pushed in to increasingly absurd and dangerous positions.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
No, the UK literally doesn't but so many people think we do that it's getting pointless to contest it.
Once again...
Irish airspace is specifically excluded to UK mil traffic unless by prior arrangement or declared emergency.
The Irish Air Corps police their own air space with the PC-9M armed with gun pods from Baldonnel.
Discussion have taken place about hypothetical events that might require RAF interceptions but there is no routine arrangement.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
To be honest I’d prefer if the Irish didn’t use us as a free land bridge from their low tax low wage economy with their polluting trucks.
What else they do is a matter for them - as long as they dont return to harbouring and appeasing murderous terrorists.
Don’t Ireland have a higher average salary than the UK?
Wow. That poll about proroguing parliament is chilling. Over half the country would be happy to have a man appointed by a handful of golf-club bores hold sway over their own elected representatives. Our old Weimar-Republic-couldn't-happen-here stuff has taken a battering.
Blame the kids. A poll a few days ago said that they were the ones most likely to support authoritarian political views, contrary to expectations.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
I'd like to know what Byronic thinks of the Hong Kong situation. Who would have believed a couple of years ago that HK airport would be closed to almost all flights due to protests?
The Chinese response to HK has the potential to be the downfall of their country.
One thing to kill a couple of thousand in a day in Beijing or to murder and intern hundreds of thousands of Muslims in the Western Provinces.
But try repressing millions who have never lived under the jackboot of oppressive left wing gangsters - I doubt they can keep the lid on that pressure cooker. And it will cost them billions - and the ruptures could be uncontrollable.
Hence why they have shown restraint - for now.
Could be a fall of the Iron curtain level event.
I do worry that when the history of the next few years is written, the events of this hemisphere will be a footnote to things seriously, properly kicking off in HK or Kashmir
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
What are you on about?
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
I think the point he was making was that Ireland made itself poorer than it would have otherwise been by choosing to become independent from the UK, and that this lasted for around 80 years until the late 1990s. They did this because they decided that being independent was more important than the economic considerations.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
It's somehow simultaneously great for us, a freeing cry of release, but awful for them, as the structural loss of a economic pillar ; never mind the economic impossibiity of this, because in transcendent nationalist logic, our position is always inherently stronger, just by virtue of being British.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
I am neither an ERG nutbag nor a pathetic Remoaner. No Deal Brexit will be. medium-term, quite damaging and painful for both sides. It should never have come to this. and the blame lies in Brussels AND London (and Berlin and Paris, for that matter). A tragic failure of political insight and skill, slowly manufactured through three decades of lies.
But No Deal is coming, unless something extraordinary happens. I do not know which union it will break first: Britain or Europe.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
Seriously - what have the Irish ever done for the Uk ? With friends like these who needs enemies.
This is satire, presumably.
The trouble is that people post such crazy things here, these days. that it gets difficult to tell the difference.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
What are you on about?
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
I think the point he was making was that Ireland made itself poorer than it would have otherwise been by choosing to become independent from the UK, and that this lasted for around 80 years until the late 1990s. They did this because they decided that being independent was more important than the economic considerations.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
I am neither an ERG nutbag nor a pathetic Remoaner. No Deal Brexit will be. medium-term, quite damaging and painful for both sides. It should never have come to this. and the blame lies in Brussels AND London (and Berlin and Paris, for that matter). A tragic failure of political insight and skill, slowly manufactured through three decades of lies.
But No Deal is coming, unless something extraordinary happens. I do not know which union it will break first: Britain or Europe.
Britain will break first. Clearly.
We are not resilient and we are hopelessly divided among many different lines: national identity, age, class, geography.
There is no way to unite this country in the short term save a huge war or something, and even then. I certainly wouldn’t fight for this basket case.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
I am neither an ERG nutbag nor a pathetic Remoaner. No Deal Brexit will be. medium-term, quite damaging and painful for both sides. It should never have come to this. and the blame lies in Brussels AND London (and Berlin and Paris, for that matter). A tragic failure of political insight and skill, slowly manufactured through three decades of lies.
But No Deal is coming, unless something extraordinary happens. I do not know which union it will break first: Britain or Europe.
I think if No Deal comes, you'll see Britain prone (or perhaps supine) before Europe within a few days.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
No, the UK literally doesn't but so many people think we do that it's getting pointless to contest it.
Once again...
Irish airspace is specifically excluded to UK mil traffic unless by prior arrangement or declared emergency.
The Irish Air Corps police their own air space with the PC-9M armed with gun pods from Baldonnel.
Discussion have taken place about hypothetical events that might require RAF interceptions but there is no routine arrangement.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
That map is wrong, I'm afraid. Or rather it uses the highest possible corporation tax rate rather than actual paids. So, for example, in Estonia although the corporation tax rate is 20%, it is waived so long as you don't pay dividends. Effectively cutting the rate to zero for most businesses.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
That map is wrong, I'm afraid. Or rather it uses the highest possible corporation tax rate rather than actual paids. So, for example, in Estonia although the corporation tax rate is 20%, it is waived so long as you don't pay dividends. Effectively cutting the rate to zero for most businesses.
That’s very interesting. What’s the logic behind that?
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
The 2016 Remain campaign was poor, I agree.
But you underestimate the extent to which it is about identity and “heart” for Remainers too, now. A friend recently said to me: “I am Jewish, British and European” and he is furious that the European part of his identity is being taken away. I think the effect of the Brexit divide has been to make some feel their European identity in a way they did not before.
Even if Brexit happens - and I have long expected it to happen on a No Deal basis - I don’t think this European identity is going to disappear and how it plays out in our politics will be interesting.
@stodge people genuinely believe that if a ‘no deal’ Brexit happens Brexit will be over and everything will continue to go on just as it is now.
The level of ignorance is astonishing.
The Brexit supporting media are driving the public toward the cliff edge. Until the Brexit supporting media stop their propoganda people will be led and taken for fools...
Or maybe we actually want to leave? If only a proper vote had been carried out. Oh it has....
I have observed politics long enough to see exactly what is going on. The people and political party change but the way the media operate remains the same. The Brexit supporting media are trying everything in an attempt to lead public opinion into supporting No Deal. Some of us do not fall for BS propogated at the moment and wonder how people can be so guilible...
Maybe some of us have been uneasy about the whole thing for as long as we can remember but put up with it. But then a Rubicon was crossed ( Lisbon for me sans referendum) after which we believe that leave is existential. Again some of us were prepared to do a “Michael Collins” and do it in stages, compromise and accept May’s deal and go from there. But then the likes of Grieve and others decided to use every arcane trick they could find in ancient scrolls to deny the biggest vote ever held in this country. So I have been forced from my compromise position by these antics to chose: stay or no deal. So it’s no deal.
It doesn't have much to do with the newspapers, which are declining massively in influence. Lots of people don't read them. They don't control the agenda. Maybe the poll just represents the fact that a lot of people are actually happy to leave with no deal. Maybe they don't think a deal is important. The reality is that politicians and the establishment have lost control. Boris is attempting to take back control. But to do so he is pushed in to increasingly absurd and dangerous positions.
Is the Etonian PM and his Cabinet of millionaire politicians attempting to regain control on behalf of the establishment or against them? Seriously, I am confused about this. Was the previous establishment a secret Soviet of miners, fishermen, labourers and assorted folk on ESA?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
That map is wrong, I'm afraid. Or rather it uses the highest possible corporation tax rate rather than actual paids. So, for example, in Estonia although the corporation tax rate is 20%, it is waived so long as you don't pay dividends. Effectively cutting the rate to zero for most businesses.
That’s very interesting. What’s the logic behind that?
They want to attract high growth businesses to Estonia, who reinvest their profits.
It is, of course, completely abused by multinationals who accrue profits in Estonia and then loan money back to corporate parents.
@stodge people genuinely believe that if a ‘no deal’ Brexit happens Brexit will be over and everything will continue to go on just as it is now.
The level of ignorance is astonishing.
The Brexit supporting media are driving the public toward the cliff edge. Until the Brexit supporting media stop their propoganda people will be led and taken for fools...
Or maybe we actually want to leave? If only a proper vote had been carried out. Oh it has....
I have observed politics long enough to see exactly what is going on. The people and political party change but the way the media operate remains the same. The Brexit supporting media are trying everything in an attempt to lead public opinion into supporting No Deal. Some of us do not fall for BS propogated at the moment and wonder how people can be so guilible...
Maybe some of us have been uneasy about the whole thing for as long as we can remember but put up with it. But then a Rubicon was crossed ( Lisbon for me sans referendum) after which we believe that leave is existential. Again some of us were prepared to do a “Michael Collins” and do it in stages, compromise and accept May’s deal and go from there. But then the likes of Grieve and others decided to use every arcane trick they could find in ancient scrolls to deny the biggest vote ever held in this country. So I have been forced from my compromise position by these antics to chose: stay or no deal. So it’s no deal.
It doesn't have much to do with the newspapers, which are declining massively in influence. Lots of people don't read them. They don't control the agenda. Maybe the poll just represents the fact that a lot of people are actually happy to leave with no deal. Maybe they don't think a deal is important. The reality is that politicians and the establishment have lost control. Boris is attempting to take back control. But to do so he is pushed in to increasingly absurd and dangerous positions.
Is the Etonian PM and his Cabinet of millionaire politicians attempting to regain control on behalf of the establishment or against them? Seriously, I am confused about this. Was the previous establishment a secret Soviet of miners, fishermen, labourers and assorted folk on ESA?
Nigel Farage, Aaron Banks, and Rupert Murdoch are about to declare the People's Republic of Albion. Johnson was only ever a messenger and signal, like John the Baptist.
The Barclay Brothers were always in the vanguard, with their mini channel island Cuba. We should have been prepared.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
No, the UK literally doesn't but so many people think we do that it's getting pointless to contest it.
Once again...
Irish airspace is specifically excluded to UK mil traffic unless by prior arrangement or declared emergency.
The Irish Air Corps police their own air space with the PC-9M armed with gun pods from Baldonnel.
Discussion have taken place about hypothetical events that might require RAF interceptions but there is no routine arrangement.
I've flown over the Victoria Falls, drunk, in more threatening aircraft.
Apart from that it's two - TWO - species of helicopter - yes, TWO.
As Wiki says:
"The Air Corps military roles and the functions it carries out are those of an air corps rather than that of a conventional military air force. The Air Corps air space control and ground attack capacity is limited to low-level and limited weather"
So their air force CAN'T FLY IN THE RAIN. Which might be an issue in Ireland.
This is piffling gibberish. The Irish are entirely reliant on the UK for air defence.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
That map is wrong, I'm afraid. Or rather it uses the highest possible corporation tax rate rather than actual paids. So, for example, in Estonia although the corporation tax rate is 20%, it is waived so long as you don't pay dividends. Effectively cutting the rate to zero for most businesses.
That’s very interesting. What’s the logic behind that?
They want to attract high growth businesses to Estonia, who reinvest their profits.
It is, of course, completely abused by multinationals who accrue profits in Estonia and then loan money back to corporate parents.
I take it you’re not a fan! Thanks for the information.
This is where I think you underestimate Boris, and the power of capitalist vigour.
Boris aims to copy Reagan: be tough on crime, carry a big stick, yet be fiscally generous, so as to but pump prime the economy - and all of it smothered in optimism and tax cuts. It could work. It worked for Reagan, who made America a richer and happier place.
Tax cuts can be amazingly energizing, very quickly.
The problem for Boris is the short term horrors of Brexit. If he can somehow get beyond that, he has a chance of spaffing in the face of national pessimism.
Sure, but when Reagan took over the US, it was a massive creditor to the world. It had oversaved and underspent, and he got the consumptive juices flowing through tax cuts.
We've overspend and undersaved, and now we're proposing less saving and more spending as the panacea.
It may, of course, work. But it may also result in a the most monumental of headaches.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Not sure about this. Leave fought on Brexit being completely cost free, cake and eat it and won a tiny majority. That's going to unravel eventually, although the durability of the cognitive dissonance has been impressive.
I don't expect that to result in an immediate rejoining of the EU. It could lead to the Union collapsing. It will almost certainly leaf to further poisoning of politics.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
Ireland doesn't even have the lowest corporation tax rates in the EU anymore, so it's no longer a case of Germany and France vs Ireland.
Fair point, Ireland's corporate tax rate is..... the second lowest in the EU, after Orban's Hungary.
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
That map is wrong, I'm afraid. Or rather it uses the highest possible corporation tax rate rather than actual paids. So, for example, in Estonia although the corporation tax rate is 20%, it is waived so long as you don't pay dividends. Effectively cutting the rate to zero for most businesses.
That’s very interesting. What’s the logic behind that?
They want to attract high growth businesses to Estonia, who reinvest their profits.
It is, of course, completely abused by multinationals who accrue profits in Estonia and then loan money back to corporate parents.
I take it you’re not a fan! Thanks for the information.
I was the CFO of a multinational business with a large Estonian subsidiary
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
Isn't the risk cross-border trade, and trade that is routed from the EU through the UK? That hasn't been affected at all at the moment, whereas business investment in the UK has already dropped through the floor. I suspect things would change quite significantly in the event of no-deal.
Not if the UK values WTO membership. Impeding transit traffic is a hostile act.
We wouldn't be impeding transit traffic they'd just be joining the same queues that we apparently will be enduring to cross the channel. Maybe you're suggesting we have a fast lane for Irish traffic through Kent!
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
No, the UK literally doesn't but so many people think we do that it's getting pointless to contest it.
Once again...
Irish airspace is specifically excluded to UK mil traffic unless by prior arrangement or declared emergency.
The Irish Air Corps police their own air space with the PC-9M armed with gun pods from Baldonnel.
Discussion have taken place about hypothetical events that might require RAF interceptions but there is no routine arrangement.
I've flown over the Victoria Falls, drunk, in more threatening aircraft.
Apart from that it's two - TWO - helicopters - yes, TWO.
As Wiki says:
"The Air Corps military roles and the functions it carries out are those of an air corps rather than that of a conventional military air force. The Air Corps air space control and ground attack capacity is limited to low-level and limited weather"
So their air force CAN'T FLY IN THE RAIN. Which might be an issue in Ireland.
This is piffling gibberish. The Irish are entirely reliant on the UK for air defence.
I make it 10 helicopters - 6 Agustas and 4 Eurocopters
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
The leaver contingent is unfortunately full of those who are so consumed with glee that they have got one over on those vegan, cropped trouser wearing liberals that nothing else matters.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
I do enjoy the double think on display. For your ERG nutbags no-deal Brexit is simultaneously nothing to worry about, and also so awful a prospect that the EU will cave in and give us what we want.
I am neither an ERG nutbag nor a pathetic Remoaner. No Deal Brexit will be. medium-term, quite damaging and painful for both sides. It should never have come to this. and the blame lies in Brussels AND London (and Berlin and Paris, for that matter). A tragic failure of political insight and skill, slowly manufactured through three decades of lies.
But No Deal is coming, unless something extraordinary happens. I do not know which union it will break first: Britain or Europe.
Britain will break first. Clearly.
We are not resilient and we are hopelessly divided among many different lines: national identity, age, class, geography.
There is no way to unite this country in the short term save a huge war or something, and even then. I certainly wouldn’t fight for this basket case.
The union is dead. Its over.
Fair enough. But you're mad if you don't think the EU is even more divided. The eurozone is one big recession away from total rupture.
Britain, however fragmented, is held together by 3 centuries of very shared history, religion, experience, language etc etc
The EU is held together, in comparison, with sellotape and blu-tak. And the fear of something worse.
If I had to wage money on this unhappy prospect, I would bet that the EU breaks first. But both unions are at risk. That is why Brexit is such a tragedy which could have been avoided with greater statecraft on both sides.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
Isn't the risk cross-border trade, and trade that is routed from the EU through the UK? That hasn't been affected at all at the moment, whereas business investment in the UK has already dropped through the floor. I suspect things would change quite significantly in the event of no-deal.
Not if the UK values WTO membership. Impeding transit traffic is a hostile act.
We wouldn't be impeding transit traffic they'd just be joining the same queues that we apparently will be enduring to cross the channel. Maybe you're suggesting we have a fast lane for Irish traffic through Kent!
A fast track for Irish goods should be perfectly viable for Eurostar and the ferry companies. As long as the cargo is sealed in Ireland and the seal on the lorry is intact on arrival at Dover etc, no customs are required at the French border. Rather like a bonded warehouse or freeport, goods in transit could be excluded by HRMC, who surely have plenty of other work to get on with in a No Deal scenario.
Sure, but when Reagan took over the US, it was a massive creditor to the world. It had oversaved and underspent, and he got the consumptive juices flowing through tax cuts.
We've overspend and undersaved, and now we're proposing less saving and more spending as the panacea.
It may, of course, work. But it may also result in a the most monumental of headaches.
Hell of a lot easier to turn the taps on rather than do something serious about investment and productivity.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You LITERALLY did not read what he wrote, and you literally do no get it, AT ALL.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
What are you on about?
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
I think the point he was making was that Ireland made itself poorer than it would have otherwise been by choosing to become independent from the UK, and that this lasted for around 80 years until the late 1990s. They did this because they decided that being independent was more important than the economic considerations.
Precisely what I meant.
Most Irish people were not well off as a result of British rule. Quite the opposite in fact. Worth learning something about Irish history before opining on it.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
So the French trying to land in Bantry Bay in 1797, or the Germans accidentally bombing Ireland 1939/45 were fictional?
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Well until 1949 King George remained the Irish Head of State.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Then again, the Irish pound continued to be constrained to equality with pound sterling till 1979
So more than 50 years after Independence, Ireland continued to have an immeasurably closer monetary dependence on the UK than the UK has ever had on Europe.
What sheer nonsense the looney Brexiteers come out with.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
I think it's very likely Tories will win most seats. But it's very difficult to say how close or faraway from a majority they'll be.
All depends on when the election is. If its prebrexit I really don't see the current lab lib split holding up. We will see a lower lib dem vote share and a higher lab one. The calculation is simple, with Boris wanting no deal, anyone who considers stopping that important has to vote for whatever option is best placed, which means labour in most seats. Labours votes and seats will hold up better than polls predict. Can't see the tories getting enough seats to get over the line prebrexit.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
You clearly missed the French-speaking Norman domination of Ireland from the 11th century onwards. But then, quite a lot passes you by, doesn't it?
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Then again, the Irish pound continued to be constrained to equality with pound sterling till 1979
So more than 50 years after Independence, Ireland continued to have an immeasurably closer monetary dependence on the UK than the UK has ever had on Europe.
What sheer nonsense the looney Brexiteers come out with.
The point being the currency lockstep was an Irish choice from independence, not imposed by Britain. They were free from 1922-1979 to change matters . Their choice they didn’t.
Interesting that Brexiteers think Ireland (estimated growth Q2 1.5%) will cave into the UK (already in a recession) because they will be "fucked" - as the anonymous cabinet minister put it so nicely. And encouragingly.
Isn't the risk cross-border trade, and trade that is routed from the EU through the UK? That hasn't been affected at all at the moment, whereas business investment in the UK has already dropped through the floor. I suspect things would change quite significantly in the event of no-deal.
Not if the UK values WTO membership. Impeding transit traffic is a hostile act.
We wouldn't be impeding transit traffic they'd just be joining the same queues that we apparently will be enduring to cross the channel. Maybe you're suggesting we have a fast lane for Irish traffic through Kent!
A fast track for Irish goods should be perfectly viable for Eurostar and the ferry companies. As long as the cargo is sealed in Ireland and the seal on the lorry is intact on arrival at Dover etc, no customs are required at the French border. Rather like a bonded warehouse or freeport, goods in transit could be excluded by HRMC, who surely have plenty of other work to get on with in a No Deal scenario.
I was thinking of the M25 and M20. They need to get to Dover first.
The EU have neither the inclination nor desire to blink.
Biased supposition projected as fact.
I don't know the EU's thinking (neither do you) but I would be prepared to hazard a guess that if we approach the 31st there will be immense pressure from many leaders to ensure there is a deal.
And I include Varadkar as the penny drops with him that the RoI will be gutted out in the event of no deal.
Ireland is not a quaint little poor outpost next to Britain you know. Its a strong, proud, and modern European country with the weight of the EU behind it.
Ireland is great. Love the Irish. They have excellent oysters and tell pretty good jokes.
But let's not get carried away. Ireland is also a tiny nation of <5m people speaking a foreign language, with an economy funded by parasitically low corporate tax rates.
I wonder how long those tax rates will last, when they haven't got the British at their side in the EU, to defend their economy, just as we literally defend their airspace?</p>
As I think @Dura_Ace pointed out recently, we literally don't defend Irish airspace. Although you could make a case for saying we do de facto.
He was wrong we do by proxy. We defend the full perimeter around Ireland. Unless threats to Ireland have some stellar cloaking technology we therefore defend them.
Has it ever occurred to you that since the end of the Viking era, the only threat or actual violence to Ireland has been from the larger of the British Isles? Perhaps by surrounding them we are not protecting them, but are threatening them?
No it hasn't. Do you think if the Nazis or if the Soviets had gone through us/NATO that the Irish would have been immune?
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
@rcs1000 we are already in that nasty spiral. Brexit was ‘won’ with it and was never a rational project.
Neither, was Irish independence for those that voted Sinn Fein in 1918. It was economic madness, far beyond Brexit. It probably meant the 26 counties were poorer per head till at least the 1990’s on gdp per head and probably still on capital expenditure ( where is the west coast motorway to this day?), but voted for it they did in vast numbers, and they were right I’m sure.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
Laughable that you would even compare the British subjection of Ireland with Britain’s membership of the EU.
Unhinged.
You're right. The Irish at least had MPs while the EU wants us subjugated and subject to EU laws without any MEPs.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
Wasn’t that actually the case? I’m not an expert but I’m sure Ireland was still tied to the UK politically for many years until they left the commonwealth etc.
Hardly. They had total fiscal independence and the right to remain neutral in war - which of course they used in 1939. So independent I believe they sent condolences to the German delegation in Dublin upon hearing of Hitler’s death. What a unique episode that must’ve been (!)
Then again, the Irish pound continued to be constrained to equality with pound sterling till 1979
So more than 50 years after Independence, Ireland continued to have an immeasurably closer monetary dependence on the UK than the UK has ever had on Europe.
What sheer nonsense the looney Brexiteers come out with.
The point being the currency lockstep was an Irish choice from independence, not imposed by Britain. They were free from 1922-1979 to change matters . Their choice they didn’t.
Just like our companies will still follow all the EU regulations on goods, but with no say in them.
Comments
Maybe the poll just represents the fact that a lot of people are actually happy to leave with no deal. Maybe they don't think a deal is important.
The reality is that politicians and the establishment have lost control. Boris is attempting to take back control. But to do so he is pushed in to increasingly absurd and dangerous positions.
The momentum for no-deal certainly isn't unstoppable, because Johnson probably has at most 21 days before a VONC or parliamentary delaying strategy, with either resulting in some type of crisis, constitutional or otherwise.
Yes it will take years to adjust - and we need leaders who will do a great job of powering the economy - not dull uninspiring managerial Phil Hammond types.
If you are menaced by that.
Boris aims to copy Reagan: be tough on crime, carry a big stick, yet be fiscally generous, so as to but pump prime the economy - and all of it smothered in optimism and tax cuts. It could work. It worked for Reagan, who made America a richer and happier place.
Tax cuts can be amazingly energizing, very quickly.
The problem for Boris is the short term horrors of Brexit. If he can somehow get beyond that, he has a chance of spaffing in the face of national pessimism.
You saying they were wrong?
Remain lost in 2016 because it fought on economics. It’s still fighting on economics. Here’s a hint: it’s not about economics. It’s not “rational”. It’s heart not head. We don’t care.
The UK will be painted as the plucky underdog against a bullying goliath and if you think the public are going to back the EU once we are out then you misunderstand the British psyche.
Quislings, cowards and traitors will be the kindest of insults to those still backing the EU after we leave.
Iraq this evening.
Lol.
What else they do is a matter for them - as long as they dont return to harbouring and appeasing murderous terrorists.
Unhinged.
Well then I must be a quisling, coward, and a traitor. Nice.
https://taxfoundation.org/corporate-tax-rates-europe-2019/
At 12.5%, Ireland's corp tax compares with the UK's at 19%, Germany's at 30% and France's at 34%.
I'm quite quite sure this has nothing to do with Ireland attracting enormous multinational corporations who headquarter in Cork and Dublin. No no no. Apple and the rest come for the weather, the weird football, and the cultural excitement of a wet Sunday in Sligo.
You are the living reason why Remain would lose a second referendum. And then ask for a third.
I still remain hopeful that the lying bastards betting on the stupidity of the electorate will eventually go too far, and get the comeuppance they so richly deserve.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/12/origin-morris-dancing-blacking-up-irrelevant
However Dura Ace (whoever he is) is correct in as much as the UK ADR by dint of geography provides a QRA buffer for the RoI...SWAPPS aside.
Ireland was poor even before it voted for Home Rule and eventual independence. It had a lot less to lose and an awful lot to gain.
We are already one of the richest countries in the world. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Once again...
Irish airspace is specifically excluded to UK mil traffic unless by prior arrangement or declared emergency.
The Irish Air Corps police their own air space with the PC-9M armed with gun pods from Baldonnel.
Discussion have taken place about hypothetical events that might require RAF interceptions but there is no routine arrangement.
It'd be like after Sinn Fein winning in 1918 the UK said to the Irish they could leave so long as they continue to be subject to Westminster laws and Irish Parliamentarians are going along saying what a good idea that is.
It's all a dream.
But No Deal is coming, unless something extraordinary happens. I do not know which union it will break first: Britain or Europe.
The trouble is that people post such crazy things here, these days. that it gets difficult to tell the difference.
They don't seem to think the EU is some sort of oppressive nightmare and they literally fought a war within living memory for their independence.
We are not resilient and we are hopelessly divided among many different lines: national identity, age, class, geography.
There is no way to unite this country in the short term save a huge war or something, and even then. I certainly wouldn’t fight for this basket case.
The union is dead. Its over.
Do we do it directly? No.
Is it done by dint of QRA interception well before Irish airspace is penetrated then you could argue yes.
But you underestimate the extent to which it is about identity and “heart” for Remainers too, now. A friend recently said to me: “I am Jewish, British and European” and he is furious that the European part of his identity is being taken away. I think the effect of the Brexit divide has been to make some feel their European identity in a way they did not before.
Even if Brexit happens - and I have long expected it to happen on a No Deal basis - I don’t think this European identity is going to disappear and how it plays out in our politics will be interesting.
It is, of course, completely abused by multinationals who accrue profits in Estonia and then loan money back to corporate parents.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1161024989988040707?s=21
The Barclay Brothers were always in the vanguard, with their mini channel island Cuba. We should have been prepared.
Here is the Irish Air Force
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Air_Corps#Current_inventory
They;ve got a Learjet. That's nice if they want sex in an airborne hot tub? Also they have something small for maritime patrol.
They've sincerely - no joke - got this for surveillance:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cessna_172#Variants
I've flown over the Victoria Falls, drunk, in more threatening aircraft.
Apart from that it's two - TWO - species of helicopter - yes, TWO.
As Wiki says:
"The Air Corps military roles and the functions it carries out are those of an air corps rather than that of a conventional military air force. The Air Corps air space control and ground attack capacity is limited to low-level and limited weather"
So their air force CAN'T FLY IN THE RAIN. Which might be an issue in Ireland.
This is piffling gibberish. The Irish are entirely reliant on the UK for air defence.
Con just hit 1.50 - lowest ever price since market opened just after 2017 GE.
We've overspend and undersaved, and now we're proposing less saving and more spending as the panacea.
It may, of course, work. But it may also result in a the most monumental of headaches.
I don't expect that to result in an immediate rejoining of the EU. It could lead to the Union collapsing. It will almost certainly leaf to further poisoning of politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_invasion_of_Ireland
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1161020956854358017?s=20
Read what I wrote. It might actually help.
Britain, however fragmented, is held together by 3 centuries of very shared history, religion, experience, language etc etc
The EU is held together, in comparison, with sellotape and blu-tak. And the fear of something worse.
If I had to wage money on this unhappy prospect, I would bet that the EU breaks first. But both unions are at risk. That is why Brexit is such a tragedy which could have been avoided with greater statecraft on both sides.
So more than 50 years after Independence, Ireland continued to have an immeasurably closer monetary dependence on the UK than the UK has ever had on Europe.
What sheer nonsense the looney Brexiteers come out with.
If it's postbrexit then Boris may stand a better chance but even then he will still have pissed off and polarised half the country. He can unite the right but so far his polls aren't great its just that his opponenents are evenly split.
It's not that there aren't threats out there it's that they take being protected for granted.
Our choice, but not really.