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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong
There was a time when the Brexit tracker in every new Times/YouGov poll would get reported and discussed with people trying to read something into the changes week on week. That’s now long gone. Public opinion as measured by this tracker has remained pretty constant for “wrong” with over the past year the lead being mostly in a range of 6-11 points.
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Loudly and persistently. And inaccurately.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
There may still be Labour to LD tactical voting but there will be far less LD and Remainer to Labour tactical voting than in 2017
1) The opposition splitting perfectly to allow you to win.
2) The opposition being confused as to which Party is able to beat you in any given seat.
3) The opposition being unwilling to vote tactically to defeat you. No sign of that in recent by-elections.
Of course GEs have been won on low shares before, most recently in 2005. The difference being that that government was proposing a continuation of the status quo, not the most revolutionary shake up of the political and economic system since 1945 at least.
Even a Tory win on those figures would be a poison chalice.
I'd want nearer 100.
So far, pro-EU MPs have managed to gain the right for a 'meaningful vote' and used it to steer us towards a no deal departure.
Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
They've done the country a disservice for sure - and they were getting punished in the polls for it - but I think that's peaked.
- if Boris goes for a GE on 1 Nov so that HoC isn't sitting on 31 Oct and can't stop no deal Brexit as a result, the Tories will be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime (I am 62)
- if Boris loses a VONC and then mucks about thus ensuring no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the Tories will also be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
- if Labour collude with the Tories in any way - either by failing to call a VONC in time, or by dithering about a GNU because of Corbyn and their pride, they will also be punished by the voters, but probably not as severely as the Tories
- if no GE, no VONC or failed VONC and we leave the EU with no deal, it depends how bad it gets as to how severely either the Tories or Labour get punished
- if a GE in time to stop no deal Brexit, Labour win and then don't stop it, Labour are unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
- if HoC votes to stop no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the nightmare continues as is, we just reset the date from 31 Oct to whenever the new date is
- if HoC passes a VONC and a GNU is formed, 31 Oct deadline will fall and there is a chance of either another referendum or revoking A50
In none of these scenarios do I envisage the Brexit party gaining a lot of votes at the next GE. In none of these scenarios do I envisage anything other than the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid gaining votes, although turnout will be depressed by lack of faith in politicians.
Anyone want to disagree with me? Anyone got any other scenarios?*
*suggesting the HoC will pass the WA is too ridiculous for words.
Edited and to at
I understand that you can't just lump all the exotic flavours of Indys, especially Elphicke, in there. However, No Deal would mean minority government almost certainly. Making 2022 nigh on impossible.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a necessarily small influence on results. They could take votes from the main parties, mostly helping the Lib Dems, as well as maintaining pressure on the Clown Prince.
Major power failure affecting trains and airports
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025
House of Commons quotes the current working majority as 0.
I make it 1, but Lab have 2 deputy speakers.
Back Norwich
Odds 23
Stake 5
NOTE: This is not betting advice
None of the plans to block it or VoNC work because not enough MPs will abandon their parties.
We No Deal.
Johnson has to hold election next March/April as his majority is only one, and probably will have lost one by then.
No Deal is an utter shitstorm. Even worse than the Project Fear predictions, on a par with the General Strike of 1926.
Johnson loses in a landslide to someone else (Lab or Liberals - I have no idea at moment).
Tories out of power for a generation.
There's been a small amount of stormy weather, probably worse elsewhere. Just hope Whaley Bridge is still alright.
Persistently since 2017, there has been a majority who would vote Remain if another referendum was tomorrow. And as we see above, most believe the Leave vote was a mistake.
However, as to whether we should now leave, it’s closer. A small but significant number of people seem to believe Leave was/is a mistake but think we should do it anyway, given the referendum result.
What will save Boris is not people's gratitude for a smooth Brexit but people's fear of Corbyn and his policies. People are sensible to differentiate between one key issue and the wider choice for PM.
Mainly because Leave is a bunch of incompetent idiots who really shouldn't be left to run a whelk stall and definitely couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.
Then if we do vote to leave at least it's been confirmed
Norwich are a well drilled side and Liverpool don't seem to have settled yet for the season.
EDIT: C'mon - Let's be avin you!!!!
This is essentially mid-term for Brexit. That support for it is still pretty much within margin of error of more than opposition to it should under normal circumstances, e.g. if it were a government (e.g. with an opposition not led by a racist trotskyite, hypothetically speaking), be remarkable.
In the North, Midlands and Wales the Tories need to decide which seats they wish to win, which they have zero chance in and do a deal as quietly as possible with Nigel for the Brexit party to do an administration cock up and fail to list candidates. Otherwise Nigel will cost Boris an awful lot of seats..
He may be a voice of sanity on Labour's current travails with racism but let us not forget he is also a treacherous, dishonest bully with a track record of fake news and incompetence.
It has come to something when he looks a more reasonable option than the official leader.
Anyway if Labour lose WBW then it doesn't matter who votes for them, they're still finished.
COGS or Cost Of Goods Sold is only one element in the price you pay. Often it can actually be a surprisingly small element. A retailer [and consumers do buy from retailers not from other countries] that is selling you a good will have other factors involved in their supply chain and other factors involved in their business, not all of which will be imported. And the fact that you said "other things being equal" as opposed to what you think it means, will mean they MUST still have elements from the UK in their price.
For instance at its most basic level a retailer that you shop with must have staff. Those staff will be paid in pounds sterling. When you said "other things being equal" are their wages going up 33%?
A retailer that you shop with will have rent to pay, when you said "other things being equal" is their rent going up 33%?
A retailer that you shop with will have rates [corporate equivalent of Council Tax] to pay, when you said "other things being equal" are their rates going up 33%?
Etc, etc, etc - there are a lot of fixed costs that are in sterling, COGS is only one element in their price.
Finally the retailer will be making a margin. Now you've assumed that the only option is the price goes up 33% or the business makes a smaller margin. However even if all costs did go up 33% [which is obviously not the case] if the price went up 33% then the businesses cash profit margin is also going up up 33%. When you said all else being equal were you meaning businesses cash profit margins would go up 33%?
If the conservatives do want to target a seat round there, WBW would surely actually be more productive than WBE.
It sounds as though the problem is a power surge that caused the network to overload and therefore triggered a reduction in current. Nobody's saying what caused it yet.
Edit - also an outage in Swansea, just 13 homes.
Whatever is going on it's bloody weird.
we are ok in North Essex right now but am glad I worked from home today.
The St Jude's Day storm knocked one of the nuclear power plants (possibly Sizewell) off the grid, but the pumped storage plants spun up and the grid coped. Losing two generators at about the same time may have been too much to handle.
In short, he thought the VONC route was possible but difficult. Indeed the indications were that Boris/Cummings didn't really fear that much. They were much more anxious about the House seizing control of the Legislative Agenda. This would enable it pass legislation binding the PM.
Anybody else hear it? He seemed to know what he was talking about. I tried name checking him on Wiki but without success. I think he was advisor to Theresa May on Legislative Affairs, but I didn't quite catch the title.