First, congratulations to Jane Dodds on her win and kudos to the LD by-election team who, after a few years in the wilderness, are back with a vengeance.
Second, kudos to the NC Politics poll which was hauntingly accurate. As we've seen, Boris has taken about half the BP votes but made few inroads elsewhere. Had May still been PM, I suspect Dodds would have won by nearly 5,000 and that was my early prediction but the coming of Boris has changed the dynamic and re-vitalised the Conservatives,.
The Con-LD swing of around 12% fits nicely into the sweep of national polling but of course there's plenty for the Conservatives to be happy about it in the result. They are down from 2017 but with the opposition fragmented, they are still very much in the driving seat and will know as BP is squeezed further their chances of an overall majority increase.
This by-election was never about Labour so there's little to be said apart from the fact they'll be pleased to keep their deposit. As for BP, another modest effort and a salutary lesson parties without ground strength and organisation will always struggle in contests like these.
Finally, my profound thanks to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for standing aside which has undoubtedly made the difference between victory and defeat.
A light aircraft towing a banner with lettering too small to read at minimum allowed flying altitudes doesn't appear to be an effective campaigning tool.
Is that the reason they won't need to submit it on the Brexit Party expenses return?
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
The centrist/left anti-Tory vote was immensely efficient in B&R. The No Deal vote slightly less so. That leaves the Tories having to push even further into BXP territory and while hoping Corbyn Labour remains as utterly useless as it is now.
But the more the Tories court the BXP vote and the more useless Corbyn seems, the more the anti-Tory vote will be motivated and the less a realistic threat claims of a Corbyn-led government will be.
These are highly volatile, immensely fluid times. One thing is certain: the Tories desperately need Corbyn to stay in place. Luckily for them he will.
The BXP vote and the HY half of the Tory vote is the no deal vote, which could never have won. Davies wasn't a no dealer, for good reason, in a farming constituency.
AFAICT “Final Say” was invented by the Independent newspaper to give their campaign a distinct name from “People’s Vote”. Just marketing, on other words.
There is no aspect of Brexit that isn't "just marketing"
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Unless the EU removes the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and agrees a technical solution Boris will not put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons again unless and until he wins a majority
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexit
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexit
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The arithmetic is absolutely critical. The one thing worse than an apparent retreat by offering up a May#2 deal would be to do that and then lose. That could be fatal and this otherwise trivial result is therefore more significant than it would otherwise be.
It also maintains the tradition that those who claim to be most committed to Brexit are the most effective in undermining it. I agree with those who say it is lazy and simplistic to add TBP to the Tory vote but it clearly didn't help. When remainer parties were willing to stand aside what were TBP thinking? Just morons on an ego trip.
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
But that ComRes poll that you kept on posting said under Johnson the Tories should hold this seat easily.
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Unless the EU removes the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and agrees a technical solution Boris will not put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons again unless and until he wins a majority
So he'll aim to win a majority in order to capitulate?
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
I agree with those who say it is lazy and simplistic to add TBP to the Tory vote but it clearly didn't help. When remainer parties were willing to stand aside what were TBP thinking? Just morons on an ego trip.
Indeed. It's impossible to say the the Tories would have held it, but it certainly didn't help, and could have well made the difference.
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
But that ComRes poll that you kept on posting said under Johnson the Tories should hold this seat easily.
So no 150 seat majority for Johnson.
150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The arithmetic is absolutely critical. The one thing worse than an apparent retreat by offering up a May#2 deal would be to do that and then lose. That could be fatal and this otherwise trivial result is therefore more significant than it would otherwise be.
It doesn't change the fact that a May 2.0 deal could only pass with Labour votes. It would have been political suicide to go down that route regardless of the Brecon result.
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Unless the EU removes the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and agrees a technical solution Boris will not put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons again unless and until he wins a majority
Nobody knows what ABDPJohnson will or will not do. He is totally unpredictable and erratic. Why do you, Mr HY, keep pretending that you know what absolutely everybody is going to do?
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Unless the EU removes the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and agrees a technical solution Boris will not put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons again unless and until he wins a majority
So he'll aim to win a majority in order to capitulate?
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The arithmetic is absolutely critical. The one thing worse than an apparent retreat by offering up a May#2 deal would be to do that and then lose. That could be fatal and this otherwise trivial result is therefore more significant than it would otherwise be.
It doesn't change the fact that a May 2.0 deal could only pass with Labour votes. It would have been political suicide to go down that route regardless of the Brecon result.
How many Labour votes? The answer now is n+1. Given that the reality is that the number of Labour MPs willing to vote for it has consistently proven to be small this is significant.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
2 Labour Leave seats gained for every 1 Tory Remain seat lost to the LDs is a fair trade
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
But that ComRes poll that you kept on posting said under Johnson the Tories should hold this seat easily.
So no 150 seat majority for Johnson.
150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
Did you tell us a 150 seat majority was unrealistic every time you posted that poll?
As an aside, what were the LDs thinking in parachuting in a London charity worker (and a vegetarian one at that) for a Welsh farming seat? Did they have no locals who could have connected better?
The selections of Chris Davies and Jane Dodds almost look like two parties trying to throw the by-election away.
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
You deserve kudos for your perfectly timed tip (or a tip that moved the market, whichever).
I won a few £ having backed the LDs from the outset, a few more from following you onto the Tories then more than laying off when the odds came in, and a few from backing LibDem voteshare 40-45%. Nothing dramatic - I wasn't going to risk combined political and financial disappointment - but some good wine for the coming week.
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Unless the EU removes the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and agrees a technical solution Boris will not put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons again unless and until he wins a majority
So he'll aim to win a majority in order to capitulate?
First, congratulations to Jane Dodds on her win and kudos to the LD by-election team who, after a few years in the wilderness, are back with a vengeance.
Second, kudos to the NC Politics poll which was hauntingly accurate. As we've seen, Boris has taken about half the BP votes but made few inroads elsewhere. Had May still been PM, I suspect Dodds would have won by nearly 5,000 and that was my early prediction but the coming of Boris has changed the dynamic and re-vitalised the Conservatives,.
The Con-LD swing of around 12% fits nicely into the sweep of national polling but of course there's plenty for the Conservatives to be happy about it in the result. They are down from 2017 but with the opposition fragmented, they are still very much in the driving seat and will know as BP is squeezed further their chances of an overall majority increase.
This by-election was never about Labour so there's little to be said apart from the fact they'll be pleased to keep their deposit. As for BP, another modest effort and a salutary lesson parties without ground strength and organisation will always struggle in contests like these.
Finally, my profound thanks to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for standing aside which has undoubtedly made the difference between victory and defeat.
A light aircraft towing a banner with lettering too small to read at minimum allowed flying altitudes doesn't appear to be an effective campaigning tool.
No indeed! Whilst in their Brecon HQ on Tuesday evening was a table neatly stacked with piles of undelivered leaflets.
As an aside, what were the LDs thinking in parachuting in a London charity worker (and a vegetarian one at that) for a Welsh farming seat? Did they have no locals who could have connected better?
The selections of Chris Davies and Jane Dodds almost look like two parties trying to throw the by-election away.
Partly, the LDs are still in "we need to select women" mode despite now having a good contingent already in parliament. Hallam will be another one.
As an aside, what were the LDs thinking in parachuting in a London charity worker (and a vegetarian one at that) for a Welsh farming seat? Did they have no locals who could have connected better?
The selections of Chris Davies and Jane Dodds almost look like two parties trying to throw the by-election away.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
As an aside, what were the LDs thinking in parachuting in a London charity worker (and a vegetarian one at that) for a Welsh farming seat? Did they have no locals who could have connected better?
The selections of Chris Davies and Jane Dodds almost look like two parties trying to throw the by-election away.
She has a base in Montgomeryshire and is a local councillor.
But I suspect the clincher was she is leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
I agree with you though, she was a very poor choice. It's one reason why for a long time I thought the Tories were very likely to win.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
2 Labour Leave seats gained for every 1 Tory Remain seat lost to the LDs is a fair trade
Plus the loss of most of the Scottish seats. And with any luck some other losses.
Even in your scenario, the party will find this big shift in its geography difficult to adjust to - it's hardly likely the Tories will give up on the Home Counties remain seats and send all its activists north to campaign in Bolsover, is it?
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The arithmetic is absolutely critical. The one thing worse than an apparent retreat by offering up a May#2 deal would be to do that and then lose. That could be fatal and this otherwise trivial result is therefore more significant than it would otherwise be.
It also maintains the tradition that those who claim to be most committed to Brexit are the most effective in undermining it. I agree with those who say it is lazy and simplistic to add TBP to the Tory vote but it clearly didn't help. When remainer parties were willing to stand aside what were TBP thinking? Just morons on an ego trip.
Farage doesn't want Brexit, what he wants is an endless Brexit campaign.
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexit
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexit
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexit
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexit
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
Mr. Richard, journalistic bullshit can be especially powerful on inflation.
I still remember, early Coalition years I think, ITV News reporting inflation was at a two year high (I think it was about 3%). The very next line was that prices were rising like never before.
The 1.4% Lab --> Con swing bodes well for an overall majority. I know my swingback theory.
More seriously, a decent result for both the parties in contention, though obviously the Lib Dems will be happier. Congratulations to them.
Major threat to LibDems here is that far fewer Labour voters will vote tactically at a General Election - as proved to be the case at Richmond in 2017 when Zac Goldsmith narrowly regained the seat.
except that having seen what happened in 2017, they will know to continue to vote tactically. Similar message for Tories in Sheffield Hallam who failed to vote tactically in 2017 and got a Labour MP.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
What's O'Mara going to do if he resigns ?
Unless he's got something good planned he has very little reason to actually do anything.
Nor is it in Labour's interest for their to be a byelection.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Brecon spells hung parliament if we have a pre-Brexit general election this year, Cons largest party, the Leave and Remain sides perfectly balanced. It makes No Deal highly improbable since that requires a clear Leave (Con/BXP) majority and mandate. Ditto for Ref2 since that requires a clear Remain (Lab/LD/SNP) majority and mandate.
What's left? What is the only way out of this? Or, to put it more positively, the only way forward? Same as it has ever been since December - we leave the EU via the Withdrawal Agreement. This honours the 2016 Referendum and it buys time for the next phase, the Future Relationship. A more or less immediate post-Brexit general election will be required to provide direction for this. Hopefully it will give a clear result.
This truth will dawn, it is only a matter of time. Luckily for BJohnson, it is very likely to dawn under his premiership.
So, no election in 2019. An extension into 2020. PM Johnson gets the WA through in 2020 and THEN an election. Or he fails and the 2020 election is called by him as a last resort to break the impasse.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
If I were deciding it, I'd wait for a bit to see if there's a GE, when Labour would have a better chance of holding the seat and a loss would be subsumed in the general result anyway. So probably a late November by-election if a GE doesn't intervene.
Incidentally, both Brecon and Peterborough show that it's not safe to assume that a dodgy record of the previous candidate, or even the current candidate, doesn't have a decisive influence on how people vote. We tend to put too much weight on these things - most people either vote for the party they like or to stop the party they don't like.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
If I were deciding it, I'd wait for a bit to see if there's a GE, when Labour would have a better chance of holding the seat and a loss would be subsumed in the general result anyway. So probably a late November by-election if a GE doesn't intervene.
Except that there is pressing need for every anti-Tory vote in Parliament, and a LibDem who turns up offers more chance of opposition wins than an MP who is AWOL
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
Hes said he will quit after recess, hes taking some personal time whilst sunbathing to get his life together
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
You mean there was tactical anti Tory voting.
No shit Sherlock.
"Swing" like UNS is another concept invented for the Robert McKenzie era that no longer works.
If the entire Labour vote switched to the LibDems I would enjoy seeing HY claiming a swing to the Tories as all their MPs are defeated.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
What's O'Mara going to do if he resigns ?
Unless he's got something good planned he has very little reason to actually do anything.
Nor is it in Labour's interest for their to be a byelection.
O'Mara has said he is resigning and will do so when Parliament returns in September. He may have changed his mind by then of course.
The writ can't be moved until he heads to the Chiltern Hundreds.
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexit
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexit
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.
Is there a source for Jo Swinson having done so?
She certainly said she would do "whatever it takes to stop Brexit"
What does that mean? Perhaps the LibDems can tell us.
I would have thought it certainly meant ignoring the result of a second referendum if it goes against her (and the first one, natch).
In fact, taken at face value, "whatever it takes" sounds like she would go a lot further than just ignoring a second vote.
Although there was a Remain alliance in B&R, in 2017 no Green candidate stood, while the LDs would still have won last night (just) if you take all Plaid’s 2017 votes away. This was a very good LD win in a safe Tory seat.
By the way, there's been some speculation that Jeremy Hunt won't stand again, but I've had that flatly denied by his office - they say he definitely will (he's my local MP).
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
If I were deciding it, I'd wait for a bit to see if there's a GE, when Labour would have a better chance of holding the seat and a loss would be subsumed in the general result anyway. So probably a late November by-election if a GE doesn't intervene.
Except that there is pressing need for every anti-Tory vote in Parliament, and a LibDem who turns up offers more chance of opposition wins than an MP who is AWOL
You think Jezza is bothered about the pressing need to stop No Deal Brexit? I know he says he is, but I remain utterly unconvinced.
Mr. Richard, journalistic bullshit can be especially powerful on inflation.
I still remember, early Coalition years I think, ITV News reporting inflation was at a two year high (I think it was about 3%). The very next line was that prices were rising like never before.
No. Like two years ago.
There was 10% food inflation in 2008 and another 6% in 2009.
It was a contributing factor to Labour's loss of working class support.
But not noticed by the media.
Compare with the stories about houmous, broccoli and courgette crises of recent years.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
If I were deciding it, I'd wait for a bit to see if there's a GE, when Labour would have a better chance of holding the seat and a loss would be subsumed in the general result anyway. So probably a late November by-election if a GE doesn't intervene.
Except that there is pressing need for every anti-Tory vote in Parliament, and a LibDem who turns up offers more chance of opposition wins than an MP who is AWOL
You think Jezza is bothered about the pressing need to stop No Deal Brexit? I know he says he is, but I remain utterly unconvinced.
I am sure he'd like to win a VONC.
Actually I'm not sure, but I am sure there must be some vote he'd like to win. Maybe voting down Bozo's tax plans?
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
Brecon spells hung parliament if we have a pre-Brexit general election this year, Cons largest party, the Leave and Remain sides perfectly balanced. It makes No Deal highly improbable since that requires a clear Leave (Con/BXP) majority and mandate. Ditto for Ref2 since that requires a clear Remain (Lab/LD/SNP) majority and mandate.
What's left? What is the only way out of this? Or, to put it more positively, the only way forward? Same as it has ever been since December - we leave the EU via the Withdrawal Agreement. This honours the 2016 Referendum and it buys time for the next phase, the Future Relationship. A more or less immediate post-Brexit general election will be required to provide direction for this. Hopefully it will give a clear result.
This truth will dawn, it is only a matter of time. Luckily for BJohnson, it is very likely to dawn under his premiership.
So, no election in 2019. An extension into 2020. PM Johnson gets the WA through in 2020 and THEN an election. Or he fails and the 2020 election is called by him as a last resort to break the impasse.
Either way, 2020 is where it's at.
I hope you're right. But keep buying the baked beans.
Mr. Richard, journalistic bullshit can be especially powerful on inflation.
I still remember, early Coalition years I think, ITV News reporting inflation was at a two year high (I think it was about 3%). The very next line was that prices were rising like never before.
No. Like two years ago.
There was 10% food inflation in 2008 and another 6% in 2009.
It was a contributing factor to Labour's loss of working class support.
But not noticed by the media.
Compare with the stories about houmous, broccoli and courgette crises of recent years.
During the by-election, activists reported a severe shortage of houmous across B&R with some towns having sold out altogether.
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
But that ComRes poll that you kept on posting said under Johnson the Tories should hold this seat easily.
So no 150 seat majority for Johnson.
150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
Your belief in the abilities of someone so massively flawed is comical. Are you editing the Daily Telegraph now by-the-way? The absurd uncritical grovelling at the altar of The Charlatan would make RT blush.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
Hes said he will quit after recess, hes taking some personal time whilst sunbathing to get his life together
I have no idea who will win in Hallam, but I doubt an alliance will occur. I know some internal chatter has suggested that Magid Magid might stand for the Greens there.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
2 Labour Leave seats gained for every 1 Tory Remain seat lost to the LDs is a fair trade
Plus the loss of most of the Scottish seats. And with any luck some other losses.
Even in your scenario, the party will find this big shift in its geography difficult to adjust to - it's hardly likely the Tories will give up on the Home Counties remain seats and send all its activists north to campaign in Bolsover, is it?
Also, it's a hard sell to your current MPs.
'It's all good chaps, you'll lose your job, but two other new people will get elected....over the top now...chop chop'..
Although there was a Remain alliance in B&R, in 2017 no Green candidate stood, while the LDs would still have won last night (just) if you take all Plaid’s 2017 votes away. This was a very good LD win in a safe Tory seat.
It was an adequate win. They got nowhere near the share they had when winning here in 2010, and 2015 plaid plus green was nearly 8%. Plus the runner up is a criminal who had been booted out of the seat and had to restand. Plus it's a Lib Dem seat at assembly
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The arithmetic is absolutely critical. The one thing worse than an apparent retreat by offering up a May#2 deal would be to do that and then lose. That could be fatal and this otherwise trivial result is therefore more significant than it would otherwise be.
It also maintains the tradition that those who claim to be most committed to Brexit are the most effective in undermining it. I agree with those who say it is lazy and simplistic to add TBP to the Tory vote but it clearly didn't help. When remainer parties were willing to stand aside what were TBP thinking? Just morons on an ego trip.
Farage doesn't want Brexit, what he wants is an endless Brexit campaign.
That must be true.
When the Cold War was at its height, Ladies and Their Families For Defence were rarely off our TV screens. Now we barely hear about them.
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Boris an overall majority the LDs would still have taken Brecon by about the same margin as last night, the Boris bounce is real
But that ComRes poll that you kept on posting said under Johnson the Tories should hold this seat easily.
So no 150 seat majority for Johnson.
150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Quick question for those following events closer than me. Where are we on Hallam? I know O'Mara has said he is resigning but has he actually done anything about it or is it just talk? Are we anywhere near a writ being moved?
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
He has said he will resign early September (but is flaky enough to change his mind).
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
If I were deciding it, I'd wait for a bit to see if there's a GE, when Labour would have a better chance of holding the seat and a loss would be subsumed in the general result anyway. So probably a late November by-election if a GE doesn't intervene.
Except that there is pressing need for every anti-Tory vote in Parliament, and a LibDem who turns up offers more chance of opposition wins than an MP who is AWOL
You think Jezza is bothered about the pressing need to stop No Deal Brexit? I know he says he is, but I remain utterly unconvinced.
According to the Daily Telegraph it was a victory for Boris 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Not a formal alliance, a buying off. BXP is wholly owned by Farage. If Boris can convince him to stand his troops down or stand down in tight seats and campaign on a grab the labour leave ticket its game on. Cons can afford to lose some remainers if they nullify BXP
Surely that's not a genuine quote? Surely not a spokesman at the least?!
What idiot actually admits what plenty of partisan figures think much of the time- that the voters are to blame?
TBH I'm pretty sure most Labour people would have wanted a Lib Dem win in the constituency....
Someone on the right of the party I guess or Kevin just making it up but if it is someone on the right of the party the implication is that Labour needs a leader that the voters won't let down, like someone on the right of the party.
Although there was a Remain alliance in B&R, in 2017 no Green candidate stood, while the LDs would still have won last night (just) if you take all Plaid’s 2017 votes away. This was a very good LD win in a safe Tory seat.
And nota bene -
In both Brecon and Peterborough, the Remain vote combined more effectively than the Leave vote. Where Labour were best placed, they won. Where Lib Dem were best placed, they won. Con and BXP, with considerable aggregate support, returned zero MPs.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Yes. If support for No Deal is at only 38% in the polls, then the last thing the Tories should do is call an election that would be a surrogate referendum on No Deal.
Tragically, Johnson effectively committed himself to No Deal in order to win the Tory leadership (which he would obviously have won by a mile even if he'd adopted a sane approach). So what other options are open to him?
Except that there is pressing need for every anti-Tory vote in Parliament, and a LibDem who turns up offers more chance of opposition wins than an MP who is AWOL
Yes, good point, but it's tricky - if we feed the Lab->Lib narrative then we put gains elsewhere at risk. A national shift of say 5% from Lab to LD would I think mainly help the Tories.
I infer that a Hallam by-election is unlikely to happen. He'll probably not carry through with a formal resignation and even if he does events will overtake it.
I agree it would be a doddle for the LDs, which means the other Parties would have no interest in bringing it about any sooner than necessary.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Not a formal alliance, a buying off. BXP is wholly owned by Farage. If Boris can convince him to stand his troops down or stand down in tight seats and campaign on a grab the labour leave ticket its game on. Cons can afford to lose some remainers if they nullify BXP
Earlier in the year Farage was threatening to stand in Uxbridge out of spite.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
2 Labour Leave seats gained for every 1 Tory Remain seat lost to the LDs is a fair trade
Plus the loss of most of the Scottish seats. And with any luck some other losses.
Even in your scenario, the party will find this big shift in its geography difficult to adjust to - it's hardly likely the Tories will give up on the Home Counties remain seats and send all its activists north to campaign in Bolsover, is it?
Also, it's a hard sell to your current MPs.
'It's all good chaps, you'll lose your job, but two other new people will get elected....over the top now...chop chop'..
How many MPs does that apply to ?
A minimal number I suspect.
These are the Surrey constituencies as an example:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexit
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexit
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.
Is there a source for Jo Swinson having done so?
People conflate continuing to support and campaign for EU membership with not accepting the referendum result. Some seem to imply that we should honour the referendum, lead the EU and then that should be an end to the matter for all time.
Surely that's not a genuine quote? Surely not a spokesman at the least?!
What idiot actually admits what plenty of partisan figures think much of the time- that the voters are to blame?
TBH I'm pretty sure most Labour people would have wanted a Lib Dem win in the constituency....
Someone on the right of the party I guess or Kevin just making it up but if it is someone on the right of the party the implication is that Labour needs a leader that the voters won't let down, like someone on the right of the party.
You have become incoherent. Someone at the Politburo needs to reboot you
Although there was a Remain alliance in B&R, in 2017 no Green candidate stood, while the LDs would still have won last night (just) if you take all Plaid’s 2017 votes away. This was a very good LD win in a safe Tory seat.
The Lib Dems had everything going for them and yet very nearly messed up. They started from a GE result in 2017 that was 20% above their average UK poll and they held the seat by a 7% margin until 2015. They could add to that the Plaid vote. The Conservative challenger had just been convicted of a criminal offence. Postal votes were cast a couple of weeks ago when the Tories were polling 10% below where they are now. There was a big Labour vote share (17%) to squeeze. And it was a by-election - the type of election that the Lib Dems are supposed to overperform at.
To be mega odds on with the bookies and yet only win by a 4% margin is a huge underperformance against expectations.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Not a formal alliance, a buying off. BXP is wholly owned by Farage. If Boris can convince him to stand his troops down or stand down in tight seats and campaign on a grab the labour leave ticket its game on. Cons can afford to lose some remainers if they nullify BXP
Earlier in the year Farage was threatening to stand in Uxbridge out of spite.
I hope you're right. But keep buying the baked beans.
Oh I will. Be crazy not to. But I am becoming increasingly unworried about the package deal of Hard Brexit and a Johnson majority (either order). Course, he might win a majority in a 2020 GE after he has passed the WA, but that can't be helped. And he would kind of deserve it in those circumstances. Sort of. In a sense.
I infer that a Hallam by-election is unlikely to happen. He'll probably not carry through with a formal resignation and even if he does events will overtake it.
I agree it would be a doddle for the LDs, which means the other Parties would have no interest in bringing it about any sooner than necessary.
My Sunday thread is about the potential Hallam by election as PB's man on the spot.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Not a formal alliance, a buying off. BXP is wholly owned by Farage. If Boris can convince him to stand his troops down or stand down in tight seats and campaign on a grab the labour leave ticket its game on. Cons can afford to lose some remainers if they nullify BXP
Earlier in the year Farage was threatening to stand in Uxbridge out of spite.
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Yes. If support for No Deal is at only 38% in the polls, then the last thing the Tories should do is call an election that would be a surrogate referendum on No Deal.
Tragically, Johnson effectively committed himself to No Deal in order to win the Tory leadership (which he would obviously have won by a mile even if he'd adopted a sane approach). So what other options are open to him?
What sane approach would you recommend?
The EU have said the deal is not up for renegotiation and parliamment have rejected the deal three times. Are the EU lying?
Alternative headline. Remainers throw the kitchen sink at a criminal and squeak home. Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage. Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
Agree with most of that, apart from the last sentence. The Tories would probably win a fair few Labour seats with a GE, then lose a similar number to the LDs leaving not much changed in HoC terms. However, Labour would replace Corbyn and be a much bigger threat at the GE after that, which might only be a couple of months later.
My feeling on a GE is leavers are now catching up with the remainers for Corbyn 17 voters and will swing behind Boris to secure Brexit. On any metric Con plus a good chunk of BXP equals majority. Esp if Boris can use his stardust to buy off Farage in some fashion
You are missing that the closer the tories get to Farage the more they also lose share to the LDs and increase the willingness of the other parties to vote anti-Tory. If there is a formal alliance with the Brexit Party expect a significant number of resignations including ex cabinet ministers, legitimising remain Tories to vote elsewhere or stay at home.
Not a formal alliance, a buying off. BXP is wholly owned by Farage. If Boris can convince him to stand his troops down or stand down in tight seats and campaign on a grab the labour leave ticket its game on. Cons can afford to lose some remainers if they nullify BXP
Earlier in the year Farage was threatening to stand in Uxbridge out of spite.
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!
There was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories and Labour to the LDs
Yep, but I would expect that Boris would be look at all the southern english seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories and think 'Crikey'
2 Labour Leave seats gained for every 1 Tory Remain seat lost to the LDs is a fair trade
Plus the loss of most of the Scottish seats. And with any luck some other losses.
Even in your scenario, the party will find this big shift in its geography difficult to adjust to - it's hardly likely the Tories will give up on the Home Counties remain seats and send all its activists north to campaign in Bolsover, is it?
Also, it's a hard sell to your current MPs.
'It's all good chaps, you'll lose your job, but two other new people will get elected....over the top now...chop chop'..
How many MPs does that apply to ?
A minimal number I suspect.
These are the Surrey constituencies as an example:
Perhaps someone can suggest which Conservatives are at risk.
Well the majorities all look very large, but when the LDs were at their prime Guildford and SW Surrey were targets and in Mole Valley and Woking the LDs are very strong. The only other one I am familiar with is Surrey Heath and traditionally that has always been safe Con.
I was involved in the joint SW Surrey / Guildford campaign when Guildford was won by the LDs. SW Surrey was in fact the main target at the time and was only missed by about 800 votes I think.
Although there was a Remain alliance in B&R, in 2017 no Green candidate stood, while the LDs would still have won last night (just) if you take all Plaid’s 2017 votes away. This was a very good LD win in a safe Tory seat.
The Lib Dems had everything going for them and yet very nearly messed up. They started from a GE result in 2017 that was 20% above their average UK poll and they held the seat by a 7% margin until 2015. They could add to that the Plaid vote. The Conservative challenger had just been convicted of a criminal offence. Postal votes were cast a couple of weeks ago when the Tories were polling 10% below where they are now. There was a big Labour vote share (17%) to squeeze. And it was a by-election - the type of election that the Lib Dems are supposed to overperform at.
To be mega odds on with the bookies and yet only win by a 4% margin is a huge underperformance against expectations.
Your spinning could get you into any cricket side in the world. Well done!
The LibDems won in a seat that previously voted for the madness known as Brexit. It is a major achievement. No amount of spinning from Bozo apologists will change that
Surely that's not a genuine quote? Surely not a spokesman at the least?!
What idiot actually admits what plenty of partisan figures think much of the time- that the voters are to blame?
TBH I'm pretty sure most Labour people would have wanted a Lib Dem win in the constituency....
Someone on the right of the party I guess or Kevin just making it up but if it is someone on the right of the party the implication is that Labour needs a leader that the voters won't let down, like someone on the right of the party.
You have become incoherent. Someone at the Politburo needs to reboot you
I'm sure a responsible adult will come along to help break down the bigger words for you.
Comments
Makes the Parliamentary arithmetic more fun and Boris less likely to call an election now. If the Boris bounce was real the Tories should have held this seat.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my profitable tip in this seat.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1157182828779626496
It also maintains the tradition that those who claim to be most committed to Brexit are the most effective in undermining it. I agree with those who say it is lazy and simplistic to add TBP to the Tory vote but it clearly didn't help. When remainer parties were willing to stand aside what were TBP thinking? Just morons on an ego trip.
So no 150 seat majority for Johnson.
"Boris bubble over-inflated. Not enough for a majority".
Significant encouragement for the LibDems as revival continues apace and constitutes a major threat to the Conservatives and Labour.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
Yet I don't remember much concern about rising food prices.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
Food prices are now lower than in 2013 and there's lots of talk by comparison.
The selections of Chris Davies and Jane Dodds almost look like two parties trying to throw the by-election away.
I won a few £ having backed the LDs from the outset, a few more from following you onto the Tories then more than laying off when the odds came in, and a few from backing LibDem voteshare 40-45%. Nothing dramatic - I wasn't going to risk combined political and financial disappointment - but some good wine for the coming week.
Good result for the LDs last nite but not an overwhelming one. Brecon was a tough gig though so just getting over the line is achievement enough.
Good result for Boris and No Deal Tories too.
Labour isn't at the races.
But I suspect the clincher was she is leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
I agree with you though, she was a very poor choice. It's one reason why for a long time I thought the Tories were very likely to win.
Even in your scenario, the party will find this big shift in its geography difficult to adjust to - it's hardly likely the Tories will give up on the Home Counties remain seats and send all its activists north to campaign in Bolsover, is it?
Parliament needs to be sitting to move the writ - can't see why Labour would hang about hence an early October by-election, assuming it isn't overtaken by events.
LibDem gain nailed on, I'd have thought.
I still remember, early Coalition years I think, ITV News reporting inflation was at a two year high (I think it was about 3%). The very next line was that prices were rising like never before.
No. Like two years ago.
Unless he's got something good planned he has very little reason to actually do anything.
Nor is it in Labour's interest for their to be a byelection.
Plaid and the greens score about 5% combined here, it got the LDs over the line in a seat they held by over 10% when they had 50 odd seats. It was not a resounding success for the Lib Dem 'surge'. It was adequate. For both libs and con. Disaster for the trots and Farage.
Its also good evidence alongside everything else that Corbyn 17 was wholly and solely a remain vote which he has now lost, irrevocably, and is back to his pre remain groupvote polling pit. Boris should get to the polls now and finish labour off.
What's left? What is the only way out of this? Or, to put it more positively, the only way forward? Same as it has ever been since December - we leave the EU via the Withdrawal Agreement. This honours the 2016 Referendum and it buys time for the next phase, the Future Relationship. A more or less immediate post-Brexit general election will be required to provide direction for this. Hopefully it will give a clear result.
This truth will dawn, it is only a matter of time. Luckily for BJohnson, it is very likely to dawn under his premiership.
So, no election in 2019. An extension into 2020. PM Johnson gets the WA through in 2020 and THEN an election. Or he fails and the 2020 election is called by him as a last resort to break the impasse.
Either way, 2020 is where it's at.
Incidentally, both Brecon and Peterborough show that it's not safe to assume that a dodgy record of the previous candidate, or even the current candidate, doesn't have a decisive influence on how people vote. We tend to put too much weight on these things - most people either vote for the party they like or to stop the party they don't like.
No shit Sherlock.
If the entire Labour vote switched to the LibDems I would enjoy seeing HY claiming a swing to the Tories as all their MPs are defeated.
The writ can't be moved until he heads to the Chiltern Hundreds.
What does that mean? Perhaps the LibDems can tell us.
I would have thought it certainly meant ignoring the result of a second referendum if it goes against her (and the first one, natch).
In fact, taken at face value, "whatever it takes" sounds like she would go a lot further than just ignoring a second vote.
It was a contributing factor to Labour's loss of working class support.
But not noticed by the media.
Compare with the stories about houmous, broccoli and courgette crises of recent years.
Actually I'm not sure, but I am sure there must be some vote he'd like to win. Maybe voting down Bozo's tax plans?
'It's all good chaps, you'll lose your job, but two other new people will get elected....over the top now...chop chop'..
When the Cold War was at its height, Ladies and Their Families For Defence were rarely off our TV screens. Now we barely hear about them.
Someone on the right of the party I guess or Kevin just making it up but if it is someone on the right of the party the implication is that Labour needs a leader that the voters won't let down, like someone on the right of the party.
In both Brecon and Peterborough, the Remain vote combined more effectively than the Leave vote. Where Labour were best placed, they won. Where Lib Dem were best placed, they won. Con and BXP, with considerable aggregate support, returned zero MPs.
#leaverscan'tcount
Tragically, Johnson effectively committed himself to No Deal in order to win the Tory leadership (which he would obviously have won by a mile even if he'd adopted a sane approach). So what other options are open to him?
I infer that a Hallam by-election is unlikely to happen. He'll probably not carry through with a formal resignation and even if he does events will overtake it.
I agree it would be a doddle for the LDs, which means the other Parties would have no interest in bringing it about any sooner than necessary.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-nigel-farages-brexit-party-sink-the-tories/
I am not sure why he would be willing to walk off stage at the moment.
A minimal number I suspect.
These are the Surrey constituencies as an example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey
Perhaps someone can suggest which Conservatives are at risk.
That she didn't - and so her successor lost, making his task that bit harder - tells you much about modern politics.
https://tpexpress.co.uk/travel-updates/flooding
To be mega odds on with the bookies and yet only win by a 4% margin is a huge underperformance against expectations.
The EU have said the deal is not up for renegotiation and parliamment have rejected the deal three times. Are the EU lying?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/16/arron-banks-allegedly-gave-450000-funding-to-nigel-farage-after-brexit-vote
I was involved in the joint SW Surrey / Guildford campaign when Guildford was won by the LDs. SW Surrey was in fact the main target at the time and was only missed by about 800 votes I think.
The LibDems won in a seat that previously voted for the madness known as Brexit. It is a major achievement. No amount of spinning from Bozo apologists will change that