Parachuting in someone from whatever passes as the Tory A-list nowadays might not have ended better.
Surely to goodness it would have ended far worse?!
I suspect one reason Davies was readopted was simply the difficulty of finding another plausible candidate at short notice. After all, the Liberal Democrats found it pretty tough as well.
It’s absurd that Davies was readopted.
Regardless of his other merits committing fraud should be an absolute red line.
Smart move by the LDs agreeing to the alliance with PC and the Greens. I thought it overkill at the time given how strong favourites they were to take the seat, but perhaps they foresaw the Boris bounce.
My verdict: On the face of it, a glorious win for the Lib Dems, and a rather important narrowing (closure?) of the Conservative's majority.
However: the Conservatives had a poor candidate (who I actually feel a little sorry for - sorry, Ms Free), had the Brexit Party and UKIP splitting the leave vote, and PC and the Greens not standing benefited the Lib Dems.
As far as I can tell, if the Greens/PC had stood, or the Brexit Party had not stood, or the Conservatives had had a different candidate, then the Conservatives would have won.
TL:DR; the Lib Dems should have won by much more. Sadly.
If Labour was a committed Remainer party, headed by a committed Remainer, the LibDems would not be winning a by-elections like this. They have much to be grateful for in current circumstances.
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
There’s enough evidence to say that a GE would be extremely risky for Boris.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
My verdict: On the face of it, a glorious win for the Lib Dems, and a rather important narrowing (closure?) of the Conservative's majority.
However: the Conservatives had a poor candidate (who I actually feel a little sorry for - sorry, Ms Free), had the Brexit Party and UKIP splitting the leave vote, and PC and the Greens not standing benefited the Lib Dems.
As far as I can tell, if the Greens/PC had stood, or the Brexit Party had not stood, or the Conservatives had had a different candidate, then the Conservatives would have won.
TL:DR; the Lib Dems should have won by much more. Sadly.
If Labour was a committed Remainer party, headed by a committed Remainer, the LibDems would not be winning a by-elections like this. They have much to be grateful for in current circumstances.
Things could change very quickly if the Labour membership fall in love with a new messiah.
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
There’s enough evidence to say that a GE would be extremely risky for Boris.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
It’s clear that Boris will be facing a GE soon anyway. If I were him I’d take the plunge and call it now while he is still enjoying his honeymoon
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
There’s enough evidence to say that a GE would be extremely risky for Boris.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
And a Tory - BXP deal that on paper looks like it might carry this seat carries risks:
- further tarnishing the Tory brand by association (with Farage), driving more remainers to the LibDems; - cementing the Remain Alliance as a counter-reaction; - increasing pressure on Labour as a party and Labour voters to join said alliance.
Morning all and I see the Liberal Undemocrats on here are hailing Brecon as a beacon to the Jo Swinson uphills. To this simple Scotsman it looks as though the Libs barely scraped home in a by-election held after the Tory candidate was recalled even though 2 other parties stood aside and the Brexit party split the Tory vote. Like MarqueeMark I suspect the new LibDem will enjoy a shorter tenure than the strange wee woman who temporarily held Zak Goldsmith's seat.
It seems fairly clear that the result of the by-election has confirmed the current polling trend though no doubt Sir John or one of his ilk will pop up with a definitive explanation in a few hours.
Boris has largely stemmed the flow of votes to Nigel and chums Jo is feeling chipper but she really has to thank the fact that Jeremy doesn't know which way he is facing.
Jeremy is basically fecked and a successful VONC will be like a London Turkey voting for a No-deal Brexit Christmas
Nicola and her screaming banshees will scream and scream and scream in the hope someone will pay attention to what they are screaming about.
The road ahead seems clearer for Boris. Full steam ahead to a no-deal Brexit. Dare Parliament to pass a VONC and ensure Tory associations get ready including selecting new candidates in seats like Beaconsfield, Dorset West, Runnymede, Grantham, Buckingham etc etc making clear that the sitting members will not be endorsed as the party candidates if they choose to restand.
If Parliament tries to pass a Bill to force another extension (because most MPs wouldn't know how to negotiate their way out of a public toilet) or revocation then Boris basically tells them to feck off. He loses a VONC, goes to the Queen having secured the support of his key cabinet colleagues (hence the Brexit cabinet) and calls a GE for mid November. Meanwhile the Government whose Ministers remain in office keep preparing for a No Deal Brexit and either we leave on 31st October or the EU suddenly realising that Boris wasn't kidding offer enough to ensure some sort of deal, probably because as Simon Coveney revealed on Marr last week, a No deal Brexit would probably result in Ireland having to leave the single market.
Lord Voldemort alias Peter Mandelson couldn't have planned better
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
LibDem tallies at the count indicate a clear LD win in Ystradgynlais, which as the largest town in the seat and usually Labour will have been key.
Not just a tactical vote. Labour voters in large numbers prefer the LibDems’ stance on Brexit to that of their own party. And probably its leadership too.
Which is my point. This is a heavy blow to Labour in heartlands that have been rock solid for literally a century.
Edit - and since Socialism would have been popular here, they can't even say Corbyn's underlying policies are unpopular.
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
There’s enough evidence to say that a GE would be extremely risky for Boris.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
And a Tory - BXP deal that on paper looks like it might carry this seat carries risks:
- further tarnishing the Tory brand by association (with Farage), driving more remainers to the LibDems; - cementing the Remain Alliance as a counter-reaction; - increasing pressure on Labour as a party and Labour voters to join said alliance.
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
There’s enough evidence to say that a GE would be extremely risky for Boris.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
It’s clear that Boris will be facing a GE soon anyway. If I were him I’d take the plunge and call it now while he is still enjoying his honeymoon
Gamblers face this problem.
It’s like when you’ve called a market wrong and you’re underwater and in a desperate attempt to get back to profit you roll the dice again, and take an even bigger risk.
Sometimes it works out. Sometimes you lost an awful lot more money instead.
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
Have the OMRLP ever beaten a “serious” national party in an election before?
Yes. Finishing behind OMRLP in the first Bootle by-election of 1990 (the new MP sadly died very soon after so there were two in 1990) was famously the final straw for Owen's continuation SDP. Whilst Cartwright and Barnes actually came fairly close to defending in 1992, they basically gave up a pretence of being national at that stage.
This looks like the sort of narrow by-election win that in normal circumstances would be overturned in a subsequent GE, so that's a pretty strong result for the Tories.
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
No.
Thanks; can't see him voting other than with the Govt though, and IIRC he's pro-Brexit. Although wouldn't No Deal throw Dover and it's hinterland into chaos?
This looks like the sort of narrow by-election win that in normal circumstances would be overturned in a subsequent GE, so that's a pretty strong result for the Tories.
Does Davies get another go at the GE?
I would doubt it, but it depends on whether they can find another candidate in time. Maybe Gary Price, although he doesn't have a great electoral record and defectors are always viewed with some suspicion.
Lots of seats out there which historically are Tory-LD battlegrounds. This result somehow encourages both sides - Tories held up well but they did still lose, and we know for a fact that Farage and his Tory allies care more about saying they want Brexit than getting Brexit, so BXP will continue to stand and split the Tory vote in many areas, providing opportunity for the LDs. But the LDs will not have such a clear run in a seat in most places.
But how well the Tory votes does at the inevitable GE will depend on us leaving by 31 October. I believe even if it is not their fault we do not, if parliament prevents it somehow, they will suffer as Boris promised it do or die .
Smart move by the LDs agreeing to the alliance with PC and the Greens. I thought it overkill at the time given how strong favourites they were to take the seat, but perhaps they foresaw the Boris bounce.
Did the maths from the Euro elections, more like.
With the environment rising up the news agenda, the Greens are clearly here to stay, and on the rise as they are in many European countries. Whatever the differences in policy between the two parties, they are both shooting for the same constituency of younger left of centre voters.
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
No.
Thanks; can't see him voting other than with the Govt though, and IIRC he's pro-Brexit. Although wouldn't No Deal throw Dover and it's hinterland into chaos?
Doesn't seem to bother him.
But the government's official majority is based in those who take the Tory and DUP whips. There are 16 independents as well who effectively hold the balance - some, like Elphicke, suspended and others like Wollaston and Hermon simply fed up with their former parties.
RBS H1 figs out. Government owns 62% or so of RBS, so the public sector deficit in September will be reduced (flattered?) by a billion or so by this payment..
"RBS announces an interim ordinary dividend of 2p and a special dividend of 12p, representing £1.7 billion being returned to shareholders."
Good news for Plaid. I expect the Lib Dems to reciprocate in a couple of seats (e.g. Arfon) which should make it easier for them to hold.
I doubt it. If you are still voting LibDem in Arfon, it is because you really want a LibDem MP.
There are people who vote for their party in a hopeless constituency.
They do it, even though they know it is a wasted vote. They do it because they own it and they vote for something they really believe in.
I admire such people.
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
The 1.4% Lab --> Con swing bodes well for an overall majority. I know my swingback theory.
More seriously, a decent result for both the parties in contention, though obviously the Lib Dems will be happier. Congratulations to them.
Major threat to LibDems here is that far fewer Labour voters will vote tactically at a General Election - as proved to be the case at Richmond in 2017 when Zac Goldsmith narrowly regained the seat.
Yes, that's right. I used to be a Labour voter prepared to vote tactically to keep the Tories out. Nowadays, I'm just a Lib-Dem voter.
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
No.
Thanks; can't see him voting other than with the Govt though, and IIRC he's pro-Brexit. Although wouldn't No Deal throw Dover and it's hinterland into chaos?
Doesn't seem to bother him.
But the government's official majority is based in those who take the Tory and DUP whips. There are 16 independents as well who effectively hold the balance - some, like Elphicke, suspended and others like Wollaston and Hermon simply fed up with their former parties.
Doesn't, does it! However I though Lady Hermon was elected as an Ind. Although I can understand any N Irish politician getting fed up with whichever particular sort of Unionist Party they were in!
Interesting result! Tories did pretty well under the circumstances, but can't complain about BXP because even if they'd got all that vote and UKIP, it would have gone LD.
Does the Tory majority include Charlie Elphicke? He's up before the magistrates early in September, where presumably he'll be remanded on bail to the Old Bailey.
No.
Thanks; can't see him voting other than with the Govt though, and IIRC he's pro-Brexit. Although wouldn't No Deal throw Dover and it's hinterland into chaos?
Doesn't seem to bother him.
But the government's official majority is based in those who take the Tory and DUP whips. There are 16 independents as well who effectively hold the balance - some, like Elphicke, suspended and others like Wollaston and Hermon simply fed up with their former parties.
Doesn't, does it. However I though Lady Hermon was elected as an Ind. Although I can understand any N Irish politician getting fed up with whichever particular sort of Unionist Party they were in!
She is a former UUP politician who left in protest about 15 years ago at a merger with the Tories, who has been consistently returned as an independent unionist since.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
I have no inside track on any discussions, but think the LDs should make a generous offer. For example, both Brighton seats, the IOW, Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Skipton & Ripon (where a deal was done last time), North Herefordshire and North East Hertfordshire, as a mimumum.
For seats where both parties are a long way from victory, it should be possible to give the Greens a free run in a good number where they have councillors or prominent local activists to give it a shot - for example one of the Lambeth seats in London, Braintree, Mid Suffolk, etc.
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
All through the 1980s and 1990s, SNP voters were being told, "A vote for the SNP is a wasted vote, blah, blah, blah. They'll never get in here, blah, blah, blah"
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
This idea he was unlucky somehow is pretty remarkable. I'd accept an argument it wasnt that big a deal more than one he was somehow unlucky.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
It would never have come to light had he not fallen out with and been shopped by his party staffer. There must be a story behind how and why such a serious falling out within his parliamentary office came about?
I wonder whether he will take the pictures home or leave them in the Tory office in Builth?
Well if everyone else is adding their opinions, I think this result is relevant nationally in 2 ways. 1. Slims Tory majority making a GE more likely. 2. This is a seat Tories could expect to reclaim in a GE. So making a GE slightly more likely.
Otherwise I think it's fairly irrelevant nationally.
So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
While that sounds a great deal more plausible than some of the wilder conclusions being drawn from the result, it’s probably sensible to apply a large discount its significance. This was, after all, an inherently ephemeral by-election.
The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
I have no inside track on any discussions, but think the LDs should make a generous offer. For example, both Brighton seats, the IOW, Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Skipton & Ripon (where a deal was done last time), North Herefordshire and North East Hertfordshire, as a mimumum.
For seats where both parties are a long way from victory, it should be possible to give the Greens a free run in a good number where they have councillors or prominent local activists to give it a shot - for example one of the Lambeth seats in London, Braintree, Mid Suffolk, etc.
Braintree might not be a bad shot. Green-Indie alliance forms the current opposition on Braintree Council, although quite a lot of the council area is in the Witham constituency........ which might not be such a bad shot, either.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
It would never have come to light had he not fallen out with and been shopped by his party staffer. There must be a story behind how and why such a serious falling out within his parliamentary office came about?
I wonder whether he will take the pictures home or leave them in the Tory office in Builth?
Apparently she left, sued for wrongful dismissal and failed. This came out as part of the tribunal. There's still some legal action going on between them.
OGH linked to the full story some time back but I can't find it off-hand.
Losing your job for wanting a nice picture on your wall is so daft it practically deserves a Darwin Award.
The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
Norwich South, Isle of Wight would be a good start, but also interesting to run a Green LD candidate in a safe Labour seat like Leicester South. I wouldn't be averse to a formal coupon election.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
It would never have come to light had he not fallen out with and been shopped by his party staffer. There must be a story behind how and why such a serious falling out within his parliamentary office came about?
I wonder whether he will take the pictures home or leave them in the Tory office in Builth?
Apparently she left, sued for wrongful dismissal and failed. This came out as part of the tribunal. There's still some legal action going on between them.
OGH linked to the full story some time back but I can't find it off-hand.
Losing your job for wanting a nice picture on your wall is so daft it practically deserves a Darwin Award.
If she left, you'd have to sue for constructive dismissal.
While it's true not all BXP voters will have come from the Tories, nor even that all Tories are leavers (though frankly they have made very clear they dont care what anyone who is not a no dealer wants), as generalization it seems reasonable to note that BXP and the Tories will be fishing in the same pool of voters come the autumn GE, and with other churn going on BXP standing will hurt the Tories more than anyone else. The question is will it hurt them enough.
In Brecon there are reasons for the Tories to be hopeful, if they can deliver, which is no easy ask. In a swathe of other seats?
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
It would never have come to light had he not fallen out with and been shopped by his party staffer. There must be a story behind how and why such a serious falling out within his parliamentary office came about?
I wonder whether he will take the pictures home or leave them in the Tory office in Builth?
Apparently she left, sued for wrongful dismissal and failed. This came out as part of the tribunal. There's still some legal action going on between them.
OGH linked to the full story some time back but I can't find it off-hand.
Losing your job for wanting a nice picture on your wall is so daft it practically deserves a Darwin Award.
If she left, you'd have to sue for constructive dismissal.
I think that might be why her case was thrown out, but I can't remember the details.
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
The greedy git was just stealing. He had spent all his budget so should have either , Not purchased or self funded. A crook plain and simple.
My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
Norwich South, Isle of Wight would be a good start, but also interesting to run a Green LD candidate in a safe Labour seat like Leicester South. I wouldn't be averse to a formal coupon election.
The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
It may have been on the low side of national expectations, it was on the high side of what people who know the seat expected.
As for timmo's predictions, everyone was pointing and laughing at the time.
Fantastic news. For a Government 9 years into its term running a convicted expenses fraudster as its candidate it was a very strong vote share and that is well worth noting. However in terms of the very tight Commons arithmatic .and narrative - that underneath the initial Boris Bounce - the government is still disintergrating it's a fantastic result.
It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Pkaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.
Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.
PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.
Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.
Aww, RobD is upset his Boris Bounce couldn't fend off the traitorous metropolitan elite centrist Party
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
I don't buy the postal votes being pre-Boris, as they were in the final stage of the election, in which he was nailed on and constantly in the news.
Boris only likes to be seen where he can have staged crowds. He chickened out from appearing in the constituency. He is a big feartie.
One of Tony Blair's favourite (possibly apocryphal) anecdotes is the Labour MP he spoke to straight after the 1992 election to say, "The voters have gone against us at four elections in a row now... what the hell is wrong with them?"
Yes, I am happy with that, and it matches what I felt after my campaigning visit there.
LibDem activists will be pleased and relieved; as I said in the last thread, the party came together to campaign for this by-election in a way that hasn’t really been seen since Eastleigh (which was a most unusual contest) and it felt like one of the by-elections of old. It would have shattered morale not to have won; the challenges of distance and geography (and for those unluckier with timing than me, the weather) will make the victory truly feel earned. There will be great enthusiasm to press on toward Hallam, where campaigning has already started.
I haven’t yet read the comments downthread but am sure the less than emphatic nature of the win and the Tory recovery of a significant part of the earlier polled BXP vote are mentioned. There will be non-Tories and never-Tories within the BXP total; nevertheless without the BXP the most likely result looks like a knifeedge Tory hold (unless the Labour squeeze had been more brutal; the widely predicted nature of this LibDem win allowed Labour to just retain its deposit).
The media narrative going into the summer will be helpful for the LibDems and not for the government. But it will be forgotten by the end of the summer break.
Hallam looks easy by comparison. Without the Brexit dimension B&R would have been an easy gain for the LibDems - but there a large number of more remain seats across the south where the Tories will soon be saying the same about their own prospects.
And huge vindication for the Remain alliance. More pressure on Labour.
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
So give voters a system where their votes actually count
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
So give voters a system where their votes actually count
I'm in favour of a more proportional system. But while I might lament so many voting tactically for negative reasons its a free country, people can vote for very stupid reasons, so I cannot moan that people choose to make such calculations.
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Comments
Regardless of his other merits committing fraud should be an absolute red line.
CCHQ should have intervened to disbar him.
Good start to Swinson's tenure.
Yes, he might get lucky through divided opposition. But he could just as easily lose 20-30 seats and be out of office.
Looks like a name you’d get from randomly faceplanting into the keyboard.
- further tarnishing the Tory brand by association (with Farage), driving more remainers to the LibDems;
- cementing the Remain Alliance as a counter-reaction;
- increasing pressure on Labour as a party and Labour voters to join said alliance.
10.5% ->
4.5% Con
2% UKIP
1.5% Lab
0.5 % LD
2% Don't vote / draw picture of cock and balls
Gives Con 4% net over LD, which still leaves them short.
It seems fairly clear that the result of the by-election has confirmed the current polling trend though no doubt Sir John or one of his ilk will pop up with a definitive explanation in a few hours.
Boris has largely stemmed the flow of votes to Nigel and chums
Jo is feeling chipper but she really has to thank the fact that Jeremy doesn't know which way he is facing.
Jeremy is basically fecked and a successful VONC will be like a London Turkey voting for a No-deal Brexit Christmas
Nicola and her screaming banshees will scream and scream and scream in the hope someone will pay attention to what they are screaming about.
The road ahead seems clearer for Boris. Full steam ahead to a no-deal Brexit. Dare Parliament to pass a VONC and ensure Tory associations get ready including selecting new candidates in seats like Beaconsfield, Dorset West, Runnymede, Grantham, Buckingham etc etc making clear that the sitting members will not be endorsed as the party candidates if they choose to restand.
If Parliament tries to pass a Bill to force another extension (because most MPs wouldn't know how to negotiate their way out of a public toilet) or revocation then Boris basically tells them to feck off. He loses a VONC, goes to the Queen having secured the support of his key cabinet colleagues (hence the Brexit cabinet) and calls a GE for mid November. Meanwhile the Government whose Ministers remain in office keep preparing for a No Deal Brexit and either we leave on 31st October or the EU suddenly realising that Boris wasn't kidding offer enough to ensure some sort of deal, probably because as Simon Coveney revealed on Marr last week, a No deal Brexit would probably result in Ireland having to leave the single market.
Lord Voldemort alias Peter Mandelson couldn't have planned better
Edit - and since Socialism would have been popular here, they can't even say Corbyn's underlying policies are unpopular.
David Owen's response was to finally disband his ego trip, er, party.
It’s like when you’ve called a market wrong and you’re underwater and in a desperate attempt to get back to profit you roll the dice again, and take an even bigger risk.
Sometimes it works out. Sometimes you lost an awful lot more money instead.
Does Davies get another go at the GE?
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
2% Con -> LD
1% Lab -> LD
...which gives you 5% net and increases the LD majority.
There are people who vote for their party in a hopeless constituency.
They do it, even though they know it is a wasted vote. They do it because they own it and they vote for something they really believe in.
I admire such people.
But how well the Tory votes does at the inevitable GE will depend on us leaving by 31 October. I believe even if it is not their fault we do not, if parliament prevents it somehow, they will suffer as Boris promised it do or die .
With the environment rising up the news agenda, the Greens are clearly here to stay, and on the rise as they are in many European countries. Whatever the differences in policy between the two parties, they are both shooting for the same constituency of younger left of centre voters.
But the government's official majority is based in those who take the Tory and DUP whips. There are 16 independents as well who effectively hold the balance - some, like Elphicke, suspended and others like Wollaston and Hermon simply fed up with their former parties.
"RBS announces an interim ordinary dividend of 2p and a special dividend of 12p, representing £1.7 billion being returned to shareholders."
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
For seats where both parties are a long way from victory, it should be possible to give the Greens a free run in a good number where they have councillors or prominent local activists to give it a shot - for example one of the Lambeth seats in London, Braintree, Mid Suffolk, etc.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
All through the 1980s and 1990s, SNP voters were being told, "A vote for the SNP is a wasted vote, blah, blah, blah. They'll never get in here, blah, blah, blah"
Look what happened.
Mark II version.
But surely he won't do that given the amount of trouble he's been to trying to untangle their blunders over UC?
Guess is he's retiring.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
She's going to get plenty in this role...
I wonder whether he will take the pictures home or leave them in the Tory office in Builth?
1. Slims Tory majority making a GE more likely.
2. This is a seat Tories could expect to reclaim in a GE. So making a GE slightly more likely.
Otherwise I think it's fairly irrelevant nationally.
OGH linked to the full story some time back but I can't find it off-hand.
Losing your job for wanting a nice picture on your wall is so daft it practically deserves a Darwin Award.
In Brecon there are reasons for the Tories to be hopeful, if they can deliver, which is no easy ask. In a swathe of other seats?
Would be implausible but would also be quite funny.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
edit/ *diehard* remainers...
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As for timmo's predictions, everyone was pointing and laughing at the time.
Sleazy, broken Tories on the slide
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
Those pesky voters.
Let him dissolve the people and elect another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49182184
Boris only likes to be seen where he can have staged crowds. He chickened out from appearing in the constituency. He is a big feartie.
What idiot actually admits what plenty of partisan figures think much of the time- that the voters are to blame?
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.